Archive for Daily Graphings

The Washington Nationals haven’t pitched well this season. Employing 41 different hurlers — the most in the majors — the NL East club ranks fourth from the bottom in both ERA and FIP, and has the fifth-worst strikeout rate. With a handful of exceptions, the often-patchwork staff has been mediocre at best.

The future is nonetheless promising. Under the leadership of Paul Toboni, who was named president of baseball operations 11 months ago, the Nats have cast aside their old-school ways and adapted an analytically driven approach to securing outs. Bringing on board Simon Mathews as pitching coach and Grayson Crawford as director of pitching were especially meaningful steps in the organization’s much-needed retooling.

Retaining Sean Doolittle was likewise a shrewd move. Now the assistant pitching coach after serving as pitching strategist in 2024 and 2025, the 39-year-old former closer is simpatico with Toboni, Mathews, and Crawford when it comes to modern-day methods. Data savvy while also bringing a been-there-done-that understanding of what translates to success on a big league mound, Doolittle is an important part of what the Nationals are working to build.

Doolittle sat down to talk pitching when the Nats visited Fenway Park earlier this summer.

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David Laurila: The organization overhauled its pitching infrastructure this year. What are some of things you, and the staff as a whole, have been focusing on?

Sean Doolittle: “One thing that we’ve paid a lot of attention to this year is getting guys to use both of their fastball shapes, even to off-handed hitters. For our group, that’s been new. We don’t have a ton of velocity, so we have to be really conscious of our combos and our sequencing. I think it’s helped a few guys in our group quite a bit this season. Guys like Brad Lord have thrown a lot more sinkers this year to lefty batters. It’s still not a high-percentage-usage pitch for him, but overall it’s been a big part of our education process with helping our pitchers and our catchers read swings and sequence. Game calling and stuff like that.”

Laurila: I believe Andrew Alvarez is throwing more two-seamers this year? Read the rest of this entry »

Cam Schlittler brought his A-game on Sunday. Facing the Mets in the rubber game of the Subway Series at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees’ fireballer was nearly untouchable over the course of six scoreless innings, striking out eight while allowing just one hit, a fifth-inning double by Brett Baty. Meanwhile in Baltimore, the Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease worked around five walks to allow just one run over five innings while striking out nine. The two righties are engaged in an intriguing race for the AL Cy Young Award, one that could go down to the wire. The NL race is a tight one as well, with the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski the favorite but hardly the only one under consideration.

The 25-year-old Schlittler and 24-year-old Misiorowski are undeniably the frontrunners in their respective leagues, from both statistical and narrative standpoints. They lead in our Tom Tango-modeled Cy Young projections, and as of mid-August, they dominated polls taken by MLB.com. Nonetheless, the statistical races that can influence both our perceptions and voter behavior aren’t entirely decided, and with less than two weeks to go in the regular season, the races are worth a closer look.

The 6-foot-7 Misiorowski and 6-foot-6 Schlittler share similarities beyond their impressive heights. Both are in their first full major league seasons, after arriving in mid-2025 and helping their teams to the playoffs while showing poise beyond their years; this October, they’ll be seasoned postseason veterans. They’re the majors’ two hardest-throwing starters, with Misiorowski breaking velocity records all over the place. His average four-seam velocity — a mind-blowing 100.6 mph — not only leads the majors, but it’s also the fastest single-season velocity by a starter in the pitch-tracking era (from 2008 onward), hardly surprising given that he owns the (scrolling, scrolling, scrolling) 117 fastest pitches by a starter in pitch-tracking history — including a record-setting 105.5-mph heater to the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong on June 26 — and 353 of the 394 pitches of at least 102 mph thrown by a starter. Hunter Greene is the only other one in double digits (12). Schlittler merely ranks second among all starters this year, with an average velocity of 98.0 mph, which is still good for fifth in the pitch-tracking era. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m going to give you a little sneak peek into my writing process. By the middle of September, we here at FanGraphs have written about a lot of baseball players. So many baseball players. And while no one’s going to be mad about an extra article about Shohei Ohtani or Pete Crow-Armstrong or the like, we try not to repeat ourselves. How many articles about, say, Cade Cavalli should we write in a year? I’m not sure – but if I covered him in July, I probably won’t in September.

That brings me to today’s article. I keep a list of pitchers who fascinate me, and I dig into it when I’m looking for a topic. I cross-reference it with WAR leaderboards and split leaderboards – you never know when someone you’ve been pondering will get hot and merit a deeper dive. When I sat down to come up with a topic yesterday, I crossed off a few usual suspects quickly. Yup, Chase Burns is still great, but nope, it’s not time to highlight that again. Chris Sale is amazing – as you’d well know if you read FanGraphs. Trent Harris got his first save for the Giants last week – but I’ve already written about my fascination with him. Read the rest of this entry »

When we think of the Miami Marlins throughout their history, offense doesn’t frequently come to mind. This franchise’s various owners haven’t traditionally put many resources behind the club, and what resources do come in often go to pitching. We remember the rotations led by Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett, or Kevin Brown and Livan Hernandez, or José Fernández.

Giancarlo Stanton’s 59-homer MVP campaign stands out in the memory partially because of how loanDepot Park blunted even his prodigious pop. (And also because Stanton got salary dumped to the Yankees before he could defend his NL home run crown.)

Here’s a wild stat: After this past weekend, the Marlins have a team wRC+ of 100. That’s their third-best wRC+ in history; they have only bested that mark in 2007 and 2017, with a joint franchise record of… 101. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in August, the baseball savants at Baseball Savant bestowed upon us nerds yet another helping of Statcast data, this time in the form of a first base receiving leaderboard. Mike Petriello and Tom Tango wrote explainers describing how the new metric works and what exactly it means. Want to know who’s the best at scooping the ball, or corralling bouncers, or jumping up and snaring high throws and then landing on the bag before the runner? Now you can learn that information without having to watch all that bothersome baseball.

In the simplest terms, receiving works like other Statcast metrics. Each throw to the first baseman has a catch probability, which then maps onto out expectancy. Say a throw has a catch probability of 75%. A first baseman who makes the play earns 25% of an out, while the first baseman who muffs it loses 75%. With this data, I can tell you that this season, Alec Burleson has been the best at this skill by a wide margin, while Bryce Harper has been the worst by the same amount. That last part’s not necessarily a surprise, considering that six weeks before the new metric dropped, I wrote an entire article detailing ways in which Harper needed to improve at the cold corner, and that four weeks after that, the Phillies moved Harper off the position altogether (maybe they should’ve tried some of my fixes).

Within his explainer, Petriello noted that, as is so often the case in the game we love, the numbers tell us that receiving is not quite as important as we might want it to be. In our hearts, scooping the ball is the soul of the first base position. If you can’t pick it, you don’t belong there. But in reality, opportunities to scoop the ball come so infrequently that its value is in no way commensurate with the premium we place upon it. Spencer Torkelson and Jonathan Aranda sit atop the scooportunity leaderboard with 18 apiece, which means that they don’t even see one per week. The next time you attend your Saturday night Moneyball singalong and you shout along with Ron Washington that first base is incredibly hard, feel free to voice your own addendum: “But it doesn’t matter much anyway.”

Nevertheless, I haven’t been able to keep away from this leaderboard. Tango and Petriello explained a whole lot, but I still found myself overflowing with questions that this new data can finally help us answer. Scoops and bouncers and wide throws may not be as important as I want them to be, but that doesn’t make them any less interesting. I have a bunch of article ideas about this topic, but today, we’re starting small. Read the rest of this entry »

The Firebells took on the Hunters in a best-of-three postseason series that began last Wednesday. The WPBL’s regular season had concluded three days prior, with San Francisco holding the league’s best record at 10-5, while Boston finished the year at 4-11. Despite the dramatic difference in winning percentage between the one-seed and the four-seed, the Hunters made the series closer than the sweep suggests.

The Firebells won the first game of the series 6-4, then came away with a 9-6 victory in Game 2. Given that the average margin of victory in a WPBL game is over five runs, the Hunters at least forced the Firebells into a save situation to close out both games — a feat they had only managed in two of their 11 regular season losses. But even though the Hunters looked better on the postseason stage, they still didn’t have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the Firebells’ league-leading offense. Read the rest of this entry »

Dominic Canzone is having a strong season with the stick. Playing on a Seattle Mariners team that went into last night having scored the fewest runs in MLB, the 29-year-old outfielder/DH has slugged 22 home runs while putting up a .258/.327/.482 slash line and a 131 wRC+ over 474 plate appearances. Along with Randy Arozarena he is only player in Dan Wilson’s lineup with 300 or more plate appearances and a wRC+ higher than 108.

His performance hasn’t come out of the blue — at least not to fans in the Pacific Northwest. Canzone began establishing himself last season. The sample size wasn’t particularly large, but he nonetheless logged a .300 batting average, 11 round-trippers, and a 141 wRC+ in 268 trips to the plate. Selected in the eighth round of the 2019 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks and subsequently swapped to Seattle in 2023, Canzone has turned into a formidable presence in the batter’s box.

The most meaningful developmental stride he’s made since coming to pro ball?

“Approach,” Canzone told me. “I would say that the hardest part to get as a Major League hitter is understanding how pitchers are going pitch to you in certain situations, and then having a solid approach. Everybody has the ability, so it’s all about looking for the right thing in the right spot.

“In college, it was so much easier,” added the erstwhile Ohio State Buckeye. “You pretty much just hunt the heater, because they’re not too great at landing multiple off-speed pitches for strikes. It’s easier to spit on that type of stuff and, obviously, everything isn’t as sharp.” Read the rest of this entry »

The first five months of Teoscar Hernández’s season were largely forgettable. The 33-year-old left fielder scuffled through the first seven weeks before catching fire during the second half of May, only to suffer a left hamstring strain that knocked him out for over a month. Upon returning, he was a major drag on the offense for the better part of two months. But lately, Hernández has been tearing the cover off the ball, rising to the occasion to help a banged-up Dodgers squad — one that just placed Shohei Ohtani on the injured list and called up top prospect Josue De Paula — reel off a season-high seven-game winning streak.

Hernández has hit safely in his last 10 games, from August 30 through September 9, batting .514/.595/.829 (285 wRC+) in 42 plate appearances, with two home runs and 14 RBI. On 28 batted balls during that stretch, he’s produced a 97.1-mph average exit velocity, a 25.0% barrel rate, and a 60.7% hard-hit rate, with a .441 xBA and a .786 xSLG. Fifteen of those 28 batted balls have been hit at least 100 mph; seven of them, all 108.7 mph or higher, rank among his nine hardest-hit balls all season, capped by a 112.6-mph screamer he hit for a three-run homer against the Reds’ Brandon Williamson on Monday night.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s no secret that starting pitchers throw fewer innings than they once did. Not only have complete games become a rarity (there have only been 20 so far this season), it is all too common to see starters limited to just five frames. The proof is in the pudding. Going by 10-year increments, the average number of innings per start has dropped steadily, going from 6.53 in 1976 to 5.08 in the current campaign. Moreover, the number of outings with 100 or more pitches this year is just 510, a 560 pace. Turn the calendar back to 2016 and there were 1,737 such outings. A decade earlier, there were 2,095.

How do current major league starters feel about the collective decline in workloads? Comprehensive polling isn’t practical, but I did query nine starters — some older, some younger — to get their thoughts on the subject. Here is what they had to say. Read the rest of this entry »

This year, the Philadelphia Phillies are 26th in team position player WAR and 27th in wRC+. It’s not because they haven’t thrown enough money at the problem. They’re paying eight position players at least $10 million this year, if you include the cost of Nick Castellanos’ buyout. Nine players have batted at least 250 times for the Phillies this year; Brandon Marsh is the only one who didn’t cost them either eight figures or a first-round draft pick.

And yet: Even as Kyle Schwarber chases yet another home run title and Bryce Harper posts his best OBP in three years, Bryson Stott is within a tenth of a win of the team lead in WAR.

Stott, one of the quietest and least conspicuous members of the Phillies’ core, has taken his turn to carry the baton. Over a two-month span, from June 15 to August 15, Stott hit .306/.404/.462 and was third in WAR in the entire league. Read the rest of this entry »