Archive for Daily Graphings

Sunday Notes: Seattle’s Dylan Moore Sees Self-Value In FanGraphs-Type Stats

Dylan Moore saw an ideal opportunity when he signed with the Seattle Mariners as a minor-league free agent in November 2018. Following a solid season split between Double-A and Triple-A in the Milwaukee Brewers organization, Moore had been discussing best scenarios with both his wife and his agent when Jerry Dipoto called. The Seattle GM told him, “Hey, we’ve got a spot you could win out of camp. What do you say?” Moore responded, “Let’s do it.”

Seattle’s Swiss Army Knife made a shrewd decision — as did Dipoto. In seven seasons with the Mariners, Moore has not only played every position besides catcher, he’s been slightly above-average with the bat. In just under 1,700 career plate appearances, the 32-year-old has swatted 54 home runs and logged a 104 wRC+. Moreover, he’s swiped 105 bases, including a team-high 32 last season.

Defensive versatility is arguably his greatest asset. Moore has already seen action at three infield positions this year, and his 2024 ledger includes 15 or more starts at four different positions. More than anything, it’s his ability to play all over the diamond that makes him the longest-tenured current Mariner. Moore understands that as well as anyone.

“I’ve gotten exponentially better since signing with Seattle,” the 2024 utility-position Gold Glove winner told me. “I’ve been really fortunate to have really good coaches, like Bone [renowned infield coach Perry Hill], who are making sure that I’m ready to go at any position. I work hard on my defense. I have a lot of pride in what I do, especially defensively. Versatility is what keeps my value up.”

Moore’s assessment of his offensive contributions stood out in our late-March conversation. Read the rest of this entry »


Edmundo Sosa’s All-Star Season*

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

I made a baseball card. Don’t worry about my grade-school-level graphic design skills. It’s not like I’m trying to sell this template to Topps. I just figured that if I was going to use the “guess the mystery player” lead-in, I might as well try to make it a little more visually appealing. So, I made a baseball card. And I’d like you to try to guess the player to whom it belongs:

It’s not Dansby Swanson. It’s not Marcus Semien in an even-numbered year. But those are probably the two best guesses you could make without additional context (such as the headline, but humor me here), which is precisely why I wanted to play this game – and write this article. Here’s how 2024 Swanson and 2024 Semien stack up to my mystery player. Keep in mind, the time frame for the mystery player’s stats is another part of the mystery:

Guess the Mystery Player
Player PA HR XBH wRC+ SB OAA WAR
2024 Dansby Swanson 593 16 45 99 19 18 4.3
2024 Marcus Semien 718 23 52 99 8 19 4.2
Mystery Player 649 19 64 108 14 13 4.7

Swanson is a two-time All-Star and a two-time Gold Glove winner. He made $26 million last season. Semien is a three-time All-Star, a two-time Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove winner. He also made $26 million last season. This mystery player must be pretty good, huh? Read the rest of this entry »


We’re About to Find Out a Lot About Heston Kjerstad

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Heston Kjerstad turned 26 in February, and he only has 158 major league plate appearances. That’s more than you or I had at that age, but it’s not a lot relative to expectations. This was a highly polished SEC corner bat who went second overall five years ago, though for reasons I’ll get into, Kjerstad wasn’t your garden variety no. 2 pick. After a token call-up at the end of 2023, in 2024 he spent more time in Triple-A (where he posted a 160 wRC+ in 56 games) than in the majors (where he posted a wRC+ of 116, which isn’t lighting the world on fire, but is still good, especially for a rookie).

Nobody wants to get their shot because of an injury, but Colton Cowser busting his thumb on Sunday leaves a two-month hole that Kjerstad has to, has to, has to exploit. Read the rest of this entry »


Why Is It Always the Year of the (Insert Pitch Here)?

Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

You may have noticed that this is the Year of the Kick-Change. And you may have noticed that last year was the Year of the Splitter, and the two years before that were the Year(s) of the Cutter, and before those years came the Year of the Sweeper and the Year of the High Four-Seamer. You may have noticed that there have been a lot of Years lately, is what I’m saying. And that’s before we even get into the Summer of the Gyro Slider, the Month of the Death Ball, the Fortnight of the Vulcan Change, the Week of the Slip-Change, and the glorious Day of Rasputin’s Cradle. We seem to be living in some sort of pitch type zodiac calendar and I’d like to talk about why that is. If you’re a regular FanGraphs reader, I may not say any one thing that’s totally new to you, but I think there’s value in putting all the pieces together to give a sense of the way pitching has evolved in recent years.

When I interviewed for this job back in 2022, one of the questions I had to answer was, “What do you think is the story of baseball right now?” My answer was pitch design. It felt like every day we’d learn about some new innovation in training, technology, or biomechanics that allowed pitchers to discover new pitches and refine the ones they already had. Although plenty has happened over the last three years, if you asked me that question again today, I’d probably give you the same answer. Read the rest of this entry »


Ketel Marte Re-Re-Ups In Arizona

Joe Rondone/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

They have a ritual out in Arizona. Every three or four years, they repeat it. The team is clicking. The squad is on the rise; the vibes in the desert are good. It’s time to sign their exciting, switch-hitting second baseman to a contract extension. And so, in keeping with tradition, Ketel Marte and the Diamondbacks have agreed to a new extension. The deal is for seven years and $116.5 million, including his $11.5 million player option for the seventh year, but it’s a little more complicated than that, because it replaces four years of an existing deal. Let’s get into the backstory, because as I’ve noted, this isn’t an isolated occurrence for Marte and the Diamondbacks.

In 2018, Marte signed a five-year, $24 million deal. He was a young, talented player still finding his footing in the majors; over the previous three years, split between Seattle and Arizona, he’d hit just .264/.319/.361, good for an 84 wRC+. But he was toolsy and exciting, and a buzzy breakout pick coming into the season. The pact felt like a good one for everyone involved. Marte went from having career earnings of $1.3 million to being rich for life overnight, while the Diamondbacks signed a nice player to a good contract.

Then Marte took off. In 2018, he hit for more power while striking out less. In 2019, he went nova, clubbing 32 homers with a .389 on-base percentage and 150 wRC+ en route to a 6.3-WAR season that garnered him a fourth-place MVP finish. He didn’t quite keep up that pace in the next two years, but from 2019 through 2021, Marte was the 34th-best hitter in baseball per WAR, right around Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, and Manny Machado. A dalliance in center field, where he never quite figured things out, hurt his defensive value. A series of lower-body injuries also hindered both his availability and his explosiveness when he was on the field. But injuries and all, he was the 11th-best hitter in the game by wRC+. We’re talking about a legitimate star, albeit one who played less than a full schedule thanks to his IL stays. Read the rest of this entry »


Red Sox Sign .400 Hitter to Long-Term Extension

Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Kristian Campbell has come a long way in a short time. Less than two years after being drafted by the Red Sox out of Georgia Tech, with just 137 minor league games under his belt, he placed seventh on our Top 100 Prospects list in February, and won the starting second base job during spring training. Now, with just a week of major league service time under his belt, Campbell has agreed to an eight-year, $60 million extension that includes a pair of team options and escalator clauses that can push the contract’s value past the $100 million mark. It’s a deal that provides both security for Campbell and some opportunity for growth, though it’s not hard to notice the much more lucrative extension that the Padres announced for Jackson Merrill on Wednesday as well and wonder whether Campbell should have waited. Either way, the Red Sox have ensured that another talented youngster will be part of their foundation in the coming years.

The 22-year-old Campbell is raking at a .400/.500/.750 (258 wRC+) clip through the first week of his major league career. So far, five of his eight hits have been for extra bases, including a 431-foot homer off the Rangers’ Jacob Webb on Saturday. He celebrated the news of his extension on Wednesday night with a pair of opposite-field doubles off Orioles starter Zach Eflin.

While Campbell was a co-favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year honors in our annual staff poll, nobody expects him to continue at this breakneck pace. Still, buzz about an extension had been circulating in recent days, and while this move isn’t nearly as big as the six-year, $170 million extension the Red Sox announced on Monday for lefty Garrett Crochet, the team clearly views Campbell as an important piece of its future. Read the rest of this entry »


Highlighting Some of the Best Defensive Plays of Opening Week

Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Man, it sure is nice to have baseball back, and we’ve already been treated with fantastic performances from across the league. There have been the usual Aaron Judge home runs, the return of Jacob deGrom’s dominance, the stretch of surprising Marlins walk-offs, and so much more. But for the next few minutes, we’re going to focus on the elite defense on display so far this season.

Great defense can come about in so many ways. Sometimes, it’s a feat of raw athleticism, while other excellent plays are a testament to the fielder’s intuition and preparation. Aside from actually making the plays, fielders must consider a multitude of factors in an extremely limited amount of time; the best fielders are also the best real-time processors. The best way to explain this is by watching it in action.

Let’s start with none other than defensive wizard Matt Chapman: Read the rest of this entry »


Jackson Merrill Gets Rich as Heck

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

During the offseason, I examined Jackson Merrill’s excellent rookie season and concluded that his next big developmental step would have to involve getting on base more. A week into his sophomore season, we don’t know if Merrill is going to walk more. But if he does, he’ll have plenty of walkin’ around money.

Yeah, I feel good about that little bit of wordplay. Let’s move on.

On Wednesday morning, the Padres announced that they’d signed their precocious young outfielder to a nine-year contract extension. The contract is worth $135 million and kicks in next year, leaving his $809,500 salary intact for 2025, but incentives and an option for 2035 could push the total value of the deal to $204 million. Read the rest of this entry »


Move Over, Wrigley: Steinbrenner Field Has the Majors’ Wildest Wind

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

I thought I had it sorted out; it took one batted ball to convince me otherwise. It was the bottom of the seventh inning during the Rays’ first game in their new George M. Steinbrenner (GMS) Field digs. Jonathan Aranda worked his way into a 2-0 count against Rockies reliever Tyler Kinley. With runners on second and third, one out, and the Rays down two runs, Kinley hung a slider. Aranda uncorked his A swing, launching the ball deep to right field. Off the bat, I thought it looked way gone. It didn’t even go 300 feet:

Read the rest of this entry »


Are The Brewers Going To Be Okay?

Benny Sieu, Mark J. Rebilas, and Michael McLoone – Imagn Images

This early in the season, no game is must-win. There are months and months of baseball left to play. Almost nothing has been decided. But still, the Brewers needed yesterday, at least to keep things feeling hopeful in the Cream City. The team’s first win of the season was a 5-0 shutout of the Kansas City Royals. Three of their four NL Central rivals lost. Christian Yelich hit his first home run of the year. Their season wasn’t doomed if yesterday didn’t happen; it’s not magically fixed now. So let’s look into what’s gone wrong so far and decide whether it’s legitimately worrisome or just one week of baseball.

Jackson Chourio Has Started Slow
Jackson Chourio has been really bad this year. Entering today’s action, he was running a 47.8% strikeout rate and hadn’t walked or homered. To that I say: So what? It’s been five games. You can’t even make a reasonable argument about what happens after he puts the ball in play; before today, he’d hit four fly balls all year, and only had 12 batted balls period, and half of them had been hit hard.

If you want to point to anything as being worrisome, it’d be his approach at the plate. But I don’t think that’s a big cause for concern. Chourio has swung and missed quite a bit this year, but you want to know a secret? Chourio has some swing and miss in his game. In his superlative 2024, he chased more frequently than the league average, swung at pitches in the zone less frequently than average, and made contact at a below-average rate when he did swing. All that, and he still didn’t strike out particularly frequently, because he was very aggressive early in counts and then shortened up, with fewer very hard swings and more contact, in two-strike counts. Read the rest of this entry »