Kyle Tucker’s final year before hitting free agency is shaping up to be a big one. Traded from the Astros to the Cubs in a blockbuster deal last December, the 28-year-old right fielder has yet to play a regular season game with his new team at Wrigley Field, yet he’s settling into his new surroundings in impressive fashion. At this writing, he’s riding a streak of homering in four consecutive games, one that has helped him to a prominent spot on the leaderboards.

Tucker went hitless in his debut for the Cubs during the Tokyo Series against the Dodgers on March 18, though in his second game, he drove in a run with a bases-loaded walk against Roki Sasaki, then added a ninth-inning double. Still, he was just 2-for-16 through the season’s first four games before going to town on the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt on Saturday, collecting a single, a double, and a two-run homer against the freshly-extended righty in a 4-3 win. He followed that up with a three-run homer off Arizona’s Joe Mantiply in a losing cause on Sunday, then on Monday went 4-for-7 in an 18-3 rout of the A’s in their Sacramento debut, with doubles off Joey Estes and Noah Murdock, a homer off Jhonny Pereda (the team’s backup catcher), and three RBI. Read the rest of this entry »

First of all, Lance Lynn’s wife has a podcast. It’s called Dymin in the Rough. Good for Lance, falling in love with someone who appreciates a pun in the headline. (I, personally, would’ve gone with Shine On You Crazy Dymin, but they didn’t ask me.)

Second, I’m going to have to come up with a new answer to the question: “Who’s your favorite active ballplayer?” Because as of Tuesday morning, our guy is retired.

“Baseball season is upon us and I’m right here on the couch,” Lynn said. “And that is where I’m going to stay. So there’s the update: I’m officially retiring from baseball, right here, right now.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ian Happ’s defensive future was unclear when the Chicago Cubs made him a first-round pick in the 2015 draft. The sweet-swinging switch-hitter was selected as an outfielder, but he’d also played multiple infield positions during his three years at the University of Cincinnati. That uncertainty — fueled more by versatility than any serious shortcomings with the glove — remained when he was rated the Cubs’ no. 2 prospect in January 2017. While Eric Longenhagen opined that Happ’s most expedient path to the big leagues was as a left fielder, he nonetheless had him on our list as a second baseman. Either way, Happ’s calling card was going to be his bat. As our lead prospect analyst stated, “It profiles wherever he ends up playing.”

What did Happ’s 2017 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Happ to respond to it.

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“The Cubs drafted him ninth overall in a draft chock full of good college hitters up top despite questions about his ultimate defensive home.”

“There definitely were questions about my defensive home,” Happ said. “I’ve played seven positions in the big leagues, so while I ended up finding a home [in left field], I think it was an asset for me to be able to play a bunch of different spots — especially on those early teams with how many good players we had.

“We needed versatility in that group. We had Addison [Russell] playing shortstop. We had Javy [Báez], [Ben] Zobrist, Tommy La Stella, and myself at second. Kris Bryant was at third and [Anthony] Rizzo at first. In the outfield, we had [Kyle] Schwarber, [Albert] Almora, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay, Zobrist, and myself. We didn’t have a bunch of set positions, so to get in the lineup you had to hit, and you had to be versatile. That’s the way Joe Maddon ran teams over there. Had I been a one-position guy, I don’t know how much I would have played in the big leagues.”

“He’s an above-average straight-line runner with decent range and an above-average arm, but his actions and athleticism are not optimal for the infield.” Read the rest of this entry »

Back in December, the Red Sox acquired pitcher Garrett Crochet with the intention of signing him to a long-term contract, and that’s just what they did on Monday, extending the big lefty on a six-year, $170 million deal that kicks off starting in 2026. There’s no deferred money in this deal, nor is there a no-trade clause, though there is a $2 million bonus in the event that he is traded. There is also the typical incentive clause (up to $10 million) for Cy Young Award finishes and an opt-out after 2030. In an extra bit of injury protection, the Red Sox get a $15 million team option and the opt-out disappears if Crochet misses 120 consecutive days to a significant arm injury. Crochet was the main reason to watch about 20% of White Sox games in 2024, as he threw 146 innings over 32 starts, put up a 3.58 ERA, a 2.85 FIP, and 4.7 WAR, and earned his first All-Star selection. He then changed his Sox over the winter in that trade from Chicago to Boston.

I talked a little about this a few weeks ago, when I discussed what I’d do as a brutal despot of MLB. What I demanded — without, as I remind you, any legal authority to do so — was that the Red Sox close the deal with Crochet. The extension was, in my view, one of the most obvious things that should happen in baseball right now. The Red Sox appear to be on the verge of a return to contention, supported by a very good farm system, and they really needed a high-end pitcher for the top of the rotation. Before the extension, Crochet was set to hit free agency after next season, and keeping him around long term was essential for both baseball and public relations reasons; an ace pitcher was unlikely to come cheaper for the 2027 season, and his departure might have opened up old Mookie Betts-related fan wounds that have healed to an extent.

Suffice it to say, ZiPS likes him quite a bit. I discussed the projections for Crochet in the aforementioned article.

After also taking into account his $4.5 million salary for 2025 and the fact that he’s still arbitration eligible for 2026, ZiPS suggests offering Crochet a seven-year, $175 million contract starting this season. That doesn’t need to be Boston’s final offer, but it is a solid framework for what an extension could and should look like. Yes, there are risks, but the Red Sox shouldn’t sit at the high rollers table if they’re not willing to push in their chips.

That projected deal was a bit lighter than his actual six-year, $170 million contract, with the main difference being that I had it going into effect this year, when he’s scheduled to get paid $4.5 million. Projections aren’t static things, however, and Crochet is coming off a dynamite spring in which he struck out 30 batters in 15 2/3 innings and allowed just a single run. He also had a decent, though not amazing, Opening Day start against the Texas Rangers. Spring training and one regular-season start aren’t enough to drastically change most projections, especially for established players, but they do nudge them in one direction or the other. Let’s stuff some stats onto the ZiPS griddle and flip off some projection flapjacks.

With a projected $18.1 million salary in 2026, which would’ve been Crochet’s final season before free agency, ZiPS would offer him a six-year, $176.6 million extension (though in both the previous and current projections, I think ZiPS is being too optimistic on his final arbitration year salary given how large a jump it is). The opt-out clause in Crochet’s new contract isn’t a major one in that it only allows him to exit a year early, so it doesn’t have the same dramatic effect as one after 2026 or 2027 would have.

You could say that this is a lot of money for a pitcher with 224 career innings in the majors, an injury history, and a résumé that was more speculation than results at this time last year. You’d be right that it’s a lot of money, but the projections already factor in these risks. Crochet, with a lengthy track record and a spotless injury history almost certainly would’ve received a larger sum of cash. I actually accounted for this by telling ZiPS to assume that Crochet throws 200 innings in 2025, and to insert pre-injury projections of him as a starter in 2022 and 2023. With that lengthier and more durable track record, ZiPS would project him to get a six-year, $270 million contract! You can look at this actual extension as the Red Sox saving about $100 million for the risks they’re assuming, on top of the injury protection clause in the contract.

Anyway, back to non-imagination Crochet. You should ignore the games started total in the projections, as ZiPS is a little befuddled on his exact usage because of his very unusual workload pattern. More than half his 2024 starts lasted fewer than five innings, as the White Sox were (rightly) extremely careful with him as he was coming off Tommy John surgery and being converted to a starter. The innings totals, though, are far more solid, and this projection is generated based on Crochet never having better than coin-flip odds to qualify for the ERA title. ZiPS projects Crochet to be the fifth-most valuable pitcher in baseball through the 2031 season, behind Tarik Skubal, Logan Webb, Paul Skenes, and Corbin Burnes, and just ahead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Hunter Greene. Who among those names would you likely get for merely $170 million if they were free agents soon?

Crochet clearly wanted this deal, making public statements last year to the effect that he was seeking a long-term contract no matter where he ended up. The Red Sox clearly wanted this deal; while they have better prospects, I doubt they would have traded Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, and Chase Meidroth if they had zero expectation of extending Crochet. And Red Sox fans ought to have wanted this deal. Crochet is a true no. 1 starter who, in just six years, is projected to become the fifth-most valuable lefty in Red Sox history. The last day of March 2025 was a good day for the Boston Red Sox.

As you might expect from a team that set a record for futility with 121 losses last year, then traded its ace over the winter, the White Sox did not enter this season with a powerhouse rotation. In fact, according to our Positional Power Rankings, Chicago is projected to have the second-worst starting pitching in the majors, ahead of only the A’s. Yet that rotation has already earned a spot in the history books, as the South Side starters have yet to allow an earned run through the season’s first four games.

Admittedly, the word earned is a load-bearing one in that last sentence. But in becoming just the fifth team to pull off this feat in the 113 years since earned runs became an official statistic, Chicago’s unlikely accomplishment is worth noting, a fluky and probably fleeting performance that has at least earned its run in Small Sample Theater, particularly given the circumstances surrounding it. I’ll get to those, but first let’s meet the company the Sox are keeping:

That’s not a particularly heralded bunch of teams, at least outside of the 1914 Red Sox, who went 91-62 and finished in second the American League. Their season-opening rotation included Dutch Leonard, who still holds the AL record with a 0.96 ERA; in July, they added a 19-year-old lefty named Babe Ruth. The other three predecessors finished below .500, and not by a little; the Giants went 76-86 between championship seasons, the Brewers 66-95, and the Blue Jays 67-95. Even so, they all caught lightning in a bottle during the season’s first week, as have the White Sox, who are 2-2. Last year, they didn’t notch their second win until their 11th game. Read the rest of this entry »

One weekend into the 2025 regular season, baseball is already throwing up some pretty big surprises. Here’s one: The Atlanta Braves have the worst record in baseball. The Braves! The perennial best non-Dodger team in the National League, with their Toyota pickup-level dependable lineup and fountain of talented young arms, went 0-4 against the Padres.

Then, on Monday afternoon, more bad news dropped: Jurickson Profar has been suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s policy on performance enhancing drugs. Minutes after Profar’s suspension came out, Reynaldo López was placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. All this comes amidst Brian Snitker, the club’s beloved and highly successful manager, hinting that he might hang up his lineup card at the end of the year. And to top off this day of crap, Grant Holmes got knocked around in the series opener against the Dodgers and Atlanta dropped to 0-5.

Fortunately, MLB Shop is already selling jerseys to commemorate the occasion:

As a general principle, I scoff at the idea that a bad weekend can be characterized as a crisis at any point before Labor Day. In case you disagree, consider that the team that ended the weekend atop the NL East was not the Phillies or Mets but the Marlins. Here’s a good rule of thumb: If the Marlins are in first place, it’s too early to panic. Even after the beatings continued against Dodgers, morale should not be bottoming out this early. Read the rest of this entry »

I have a hot baseball take. The most dominant performer I’ve seen in real life isn’t Shohei Ohtani, or Aaron Judge, or Barry Bonds. It’s Jacob deGrom, and specifically the form that deGrom showed starting in 2019. He mostly threw fastballs and sliders. He only attacked one side of the plate. It sounds like a bad approach, one that a thoughtful hitter could easily exploit. Yet it was absolutely, completely unhittable.

Why? First, deGrom’s fastball is a unicorn. His combination of release point, shape, velocity, and command means that batters are trying to hit flat and even seemingly rising pitches on the edges of the plate. By releasing so low and yet generating so much backspin, he’s defying expectations. By throwing it so hard, he’s giving batters less time to react. By spotting it on the edge of the plate, he’s giving them no good options even if they swing; it’s hard to do damage on pitches that avoid the center of the plate.

From 2020 to 2022, the velocity part of this equation kicked into overdrive. In each of those years, deGrom averaged 98.7 mph or faster with his fastball. But it turns out it still looks pretty good at 97:

Read the rest of this entry »

Bowden Francis was one of baseball’s best pitchers over the final two months of the 2024 season. From August onward, the 28-year-old Toronto Blue Jays righty made nine starts and posted a 1.53 ERA with 56 strikeouts while allowing just 24 hits and seven walks across 59 innings.

All told, Francis recorded a 3.30 ERA, a 22.5% strikeout rate, and a 5.4% walk rate last season across his 27 appearances (13 starts) spanning 103 2/3 innings. It stands to reason that the minuscule .211 BABIP he allowed isn’t repeatable, though it may not be due for as much of a regression as you might expect. Inducing weak contact is Francis’ modus operandi on the mound, and a low BABIP is a feature of his game, not a fluke.

Considering the priority for pitchers to generate as many swings and misses as possible, when I spoke with Francis during spring training, I wanted to understand his approach to pitching. Specifically, I asked him, “How do you get guys out?”

“Pounding the strike zone,” said Francis, who was selected out of Chipola Junior College in the sixth round of the 2017 draft. “Strike percentage, getting guys on their heels more. Mixing it up and moving it around, trying to keep them off balance. Pitchability is my thing. I’ve never been super-overpowering. I’ve always been more on the crafty side.” Read the rest of this entry »

On the first day of the season, Aaron Judge and the Yankees offense didn’t make much noise. They scraped together four runs against the Brewers, led by homers from Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. But for the next two games, they feasted on Milwaukee pitching. Saturday brought a nine-homer barrage in a 20-9 victory. They cranked four more homers on their way to double-digit runs again the next day. The Yankees are hot – and Judge is at the center of it.

Well, he’s one of the things at the center of it. Torpedo bats are getting their 15 minutes of fame as you read this. Several Yankees are using these bats, which reach their greatest width around the sweet spot and taper thereafter, to great effect so far this year. The bats have been around for a few years, and the Yankees aren’t the only ones using them, but now they’re a topic of conversation across big league clubhouses. Honestly? I don’t have a lot to tell you about torpedo bats that hasn’t already been written. But I do have this to say: Judge isn’t using one, and he’s the beating heart of New York’s offensive explosion to start the season.

It’s been only three games, of course, so you can’t read much into batting lines. But Judge is slugging 1.818 through those games, with a .545/.643/1.818 slash line that’s good for a 547 wRC+. He’s only struck out twice. He had exactly one three-game stretch this good last year – and he won MVP unanimously.
Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Montgomery isn’t likely to pitch for the Diamondbacks again. Brandon Pfaadt could be pitching for them well into the next decade. That’s the upshot of an eventful few days for the Diamondbacks rotation, as Montgomery revealed last week that he would undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2025 season, while Pfaadt agreed to a five-year, $45 million extension that includes a couple of additional option years.

For the 32-year-old Montgomery – who was outpitched by Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson in this spring’s battle for the fifth starter job — this is the latest twist in a saga that has largely been an unhappy one ever since he helped the Rangers win the 2023 World Series. He hit the market on a high note after being dealt ahead of the trade deadline for the second straight season; between his time with the Cardinals and Rangers in 2023, he set career bests while posting the majors’ eighth-lowest ERA (3.20) and ranking 12th in WAR (4.3). He capped that with a 2.90 ERA in 31 postseason innings, starting a pair of series-opening combined shutouts against the Rays (ALWCS) and the Astros (ALCS), and chipping in 2 1/3 innings of emergency relief following Max Scherzer’s injury-related exit in Game 7 of the ALCS. Though he was knocked around by the Diamondbacks in Game 2 of the World Series, it didn’t stop Texas from winning its first championship.

Off of that run, Montgomery and agent Scott Boras reportedly set their sights on a contract topping the seven-year, $172 million extension that Aaron Nola signed with the Phillies shortly after the offseason began, but as with Boras’ other high-profile clients that winter, namely Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Blake Snell, the big deal envisioned for Montgomery never materialized, and he lingered unsigned past the start of spring training. He was pursued by the Red Sox — which would have been an excellent fit given that his wife had begun a dermatology residence at a Boston-area hospital in the fall of 2023 — as well as the Rangers, Yankees (who drafted and developed him), and Mets, among others. In the end he settled for a one-year, $25 million contract with the Diamondbacks on March 29, with a $20 vesting option for 2025 based on 10 starts, rising to $22.5 million with 18 starts and $25 million with 23 starts. Read the rest of this entry »