Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Joe Girardi’s firing and where the Phillies go from here, the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez extension, the dip in DH offense, and the trade deadline, then answer listener emails about MLB.TV highlights, the upside of ignoring playoff odds, getting plunked on a full count, things that haven’t happened in an MLB game, players being coached by their romantic partners, and what would happen if no one wanted to play catcher, plus a history tidbit from 1858 and a few followups.

Audio intro: Ezra Furman, “Wobbly”
Audio outro: Liz Phair, “Uncle Alvarez”

Link to MLB.com on the Girardi firing
Link to ESPN on the Girardi firing
Link to Andy McCullough on Girardi
Link to wobbly chair/squid is fried explainer
Link to MLB.com on the Alvarez extension
Link to Dan on extension candidates
Link to Dan on more extension candidates
Link to Dan on the trade deadline
Link to Passan on the trade deadline
Link to DH stats by season
Link to Russell Carleton on resting hitters
Link to story about DH and roster decisions
Link to FanGraphs WPA Inquirer
Link to Ben Clemens on Holmes
Link to Smeltzer interview video
Link to Smeltzer story
Link to subsequent Smeltzer story
Link to EW listener emails database
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to story about the Mets’ pitching machine
Link to video of the machine
Link to Ben on “perfect” pitching machines
Link to story about the Turner deke
Link to Turner deke video

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley announce the availability of new Effectively Wild T-shirts, then follow up on the latest, Mike Trout-related developments in the Tommy Pham–Joc Pederson fantasy-football/slap story as well as Josh Donaldson’s comments about his teammates not supporting him. After that, they banter about a home-run robbery that wasn’t, the homer hitting of Aaron Judge, a successful use of the “KK play” to deke a runner into leaving third base early, the return of MVP-caliber Mookie Betts, the Kevin Gausman vs. Robbie Ray debate revisited, unlikely contenders for the pitcher WAR lead (including Martín Pérez), and whether the Phillies are hopeless this season and long term, followed by the latest edition of Today’s Episode Number in Baseball History (plus a postscript).

Audio intro: The Skygreen Leopards, “Selling T-shirts”
Audio outro: The Lemonheads, “It’s a Shame About Ray”

Link to FG post about t-shirts
Link to t-shirts
Link to C. Trent on Trout
Link to Andy McCullough on Trout
Link to MLB.com on Trout
Link to Donaldson comments
Link to tweet about Ohtani’s rescheduling
Link to Ohtani game story
Link to Ohtani non-robbery video
Link to Ben on homer robberies
Link to Dan Szymborski on Judge
Link to “ordinary effort” definition
Link to story about the “KK play”
Link to video of the “KK play”
Link to Ben on mid-PA pitching changes
Link to story about Ray and vaccination
Link to Shapiro’s comments
Link to Levi Weaver on Pérez
Link to Sports-Reference newsletter
Link to changes in playoff odds
Link to Girardi on his job
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Girardi’s job
Link to The Ringer’s preseason predictions
Link to RosterResource payroll page
Link to 1857 convention story
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1857 story source 1
Link to 1857 story source 2
Link to 1857 story source 3
Link to Shanghaiing wiki
Link to sticky wicket wiki
Link to story on crank/fan
Link to “good hair day” clip
Link to overheard Hallion clip
Link to Hallion hot-mic clip
Link to “ass in the jackpot” video

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Nick Castellanos’s uncanny tater timing, and then (4:43) Ben attempts to explain the Joc Pederson–Tommy Pham fantasy-football dispute (and resulting slap) to Meg. After that (44:42), they discuss the Reds’ resurgence, an umpire’s hot mic, updates on defensive-positioning restrictions and the forthcoming pitch clock, and whether the standings will present enough suspense this summer. Finally (1:19:42), they debut a new history segment about an event that took place in the year of the episode number and Stat Blast (1:24:00) about multiple starting pitchers debuting in the same game, an odd pinch-hitting appearance by Darin Ruf, and the most consecutive pitcher innings with the same pitch count (plus a postscript with a few followups).

Audio intro: The Scruffs, “Revenge”
Audio outro: Basic Plumbing, “Fantasy”

Link to Castellanos clip
Link to Ben on the Castellanos meme
Link to video of the slap
Link to first Pederson video
Link to second Pederson video
Link to Mercury News on the slap
Link to ESPN on the slap
Link to Cincinnati.com on the slap
Link to the NYT on the slap
Link to CBS sports on the fantasy dispute
Link to Gaslamp Ball post
Link to Oakley-Hill dispute story
Link to Pham stabbing story
Link to Pham vs. fans story
Link to Pham vs. Voit story
Link to Pham on the pandemic delay
Link to story on Pham’s slow start
Link to SI Pham profile
Link to Tampa Bay Times Pham profile
Link to Strickland vs. Harper story
Link to Mets rat vs. raccoon story
Link to hot-mic tweet
Link to Stark on rules changes
Link to FG Playoff Odds
Link to Joe Posnanski on the standings
Link to Marc Normandin on the standings
Link to New York Clipper, 8/9/1856
Link to New York Clipper box score
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to Stathead
Link to Stathead query about two-SP debuts
Link to Stathead query about Ruf’s PH Ks
Link to Cangelosi Stat Blast text
Link to Stat Blast pitch-count data
Link to Pérez’s record game
Link to Trout commissioner story
Link to 1985 Raines story
Link to other 1985 Raines story
Link to Raines bio excerpt
Link to glass delusion wiki
Link to Boswell on big innings
Link to James vs. Boswell story

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley answer listener emails about why we don’t see more hidden-ball tricks in MLB, why big leaguers practice fielding grounders between innings, comparing the careers of Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman, how baseball broadcasts should discuss domestic-violence suspensions, whether Rickey Henderson would still have stolen bases if he’d been inflicted with Glass Ass Syndrome, and whether teams could get more favorable calls by riding umpires even harder than they already do, then (58:01) field “How can you not be pedantic about baseball?” questions about hometown discounts for players who aren’t native to a town, who qualifies as a “phenom,” and pitches “on the corner,” followed by (1:08:53) Stat Blasts about pitchers who’ve lost to every current franchise and how patterns of starter wins and losses have changed, how often game times exactly match game start times, and whether Roger Angell was right about a bet in 1975.

Audio intro: Jim White, “Smart-Ass Reply”
Audio outro: Beams, “Break Glass”

Link to Double-A hidden-ball trick
Link to Retrosheet list of hidden-ball tricks
Link to MLB.com on Barrett
Link to Finding the Hidden-Ball Trick
Link to story on Goldschmidt’s 2013 nickname
Link to SI on Rickey’s SB technique
Link to first study on taking close pitches
Link to second study on taking close pitches
Link to pitcher leaderboard of teams lost to
Link to SP decision rates by year
Link to data on SP W/L correlations
Link to game times matching start times
Link to shortest game with matching times
Link to longest game with matching times
Link to list of longest regular-season games
Link to FG Roger Angell reading recs post
Link to Jay’s tribute to Angell
Link to “Agincourt and After”
Link to passage from “Agincourt and After”
Link to historical data on the Angell bet
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to Stathead
Link to EW listener emails database
Link to TOOTBLAN glossary entry
Link to FARTSLAM introduction
Link to FARTSLAM discussion
Link to FARTSLAM montage

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the apparent end of Mike Trout’s long-lasting SuperPretzel sponsorship, Willians Astudillo’s return to the majors, the Phillies’ fielding and a seeming surfeit of amusingly bad defensive plays across the league, the arrival of overall no. 1 prospect (and Orioles catcher) Adley Rutschman and how to tell when a prospect is really ready, the postponement of the 13-pitcher limit, the Yankees signing Matt Carpenter, different facial hair changing players’ appearances, the fallout from Josh Donaldson calling Tim Anderson “Jackie,” and Anderson’s great start to the season, plus a few followups.

Audio intro: Great Lakes, “End of an Error”
Audio outro: Joel Plaskett, “Tim”

Link to news about J&J and Dippin’ Dots
Link to 2012 SuperPretzel press release
Link to SuperPretzel website
Link to “I’m a Mac” actor-switch story
Link to EW SuperPretzel episode
Link to latest Phillies flub
Link to Craig Goldstein on the Phillies
Link to earlier episode about bad defense
Link to Nats’ two-run pickoff attempt
Link to study on slippery baseballs
Link to team defensive efficiency
Link to BP on scouting Rutschman
Link to Craig on the Rutschman callup
Link to Rutschman callup video
Link to Rodríguez callup video
Link to Ben on the record prospect crop
Link to 13-pitcher-limit news
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Carpenter
Link to 2019 Tim Anderson SI story
Link to James Fegan on Anderson
Link to Anderson game story
Link to Anderson’s subsequent comments
Link to Donaldson statement
Link to 2016 Donaldson profile
Link to Judge’s comments
Link to Cashman on Donaldson
Link to Bradford’s interview
Link to Bradford’s podcast
Link to article on Anderson’s swing decisions
Link to FiveThirtyEight forecasts page
Link to Tom Tango on regression mistakes
Link to Phil Birnbaum on regression mistakes

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley talk to Kelly Pracht, the CEO and co-founder of predictive analytics startup nVenue, which has provided the real-time probabilities displayed on this season’s MLB Network-produced Friday Night Baseball broadcasts on Apple TV+. They discuss nVenue’s origin story, its sports-betting ambitions, its 100-plus-input machine-learning model, which factors are and aren’t predictive of performance, Ben and Meg’s misgivings about some of the displayed probabilities, and much more. Then (1:04:37) Ben and Meg bring on FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens to discuss the results of his study about how nVenue’s odds compare to a simplistic, one-factor model, and why they think the accuracy of the system matters.

Audio intro: Remember Sports, “Odds Are”
Audio interstitial: Sunflower Bean, “Beat the Odds”
Audio outro: The Rock*A*Teens, “Count in Odd Numbers”

Link to Friday Night Baseball details
Link to nVenue’s website
Link to article about nVenue fundraising
Link to SportTechie on nVenue
Link to SportTechie on nVenue again
Link to D Magazine on nVenue
Link to InnovationMap on nVenue
Link to nVenue YouTube video
Link to nVenue on PitchBook
Link to nVenue on Crunchbase
Link to Emily Bender on AI
Link to machine learning wiki
Link to overfitting explainer
Link to SABR on machine learning
Link to “reach base probability” tweets
Link to Ben Clemens’s nVenue study
Link to Ben’s study data
Link to Brier score wiki
Link to league count splits

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley pay tribute (for the umpteenth time) to the great Roger Angell, who died at 101 on Friday, then banter about which underperforming hitters are most in need of the kind of breakout game that slow-starting Trevor Story had this week. After that (21:41), they bring on listener and top-tier Patreon supporter Aaron Hartman to discuss his Effectively Wild, baseball, and betting origin stories, answer listener emails about umpire punch-out calls in the robo-umps era, quantifying clutchness at lower levels, and the most tortured fan bases in MLB, then (1:00:09) do a “How can you not be pedantic about baseball?” segment on ground-rule doubles, the infield “corners,” “scoreless” games, postseason stats, and walk-offs, and Stat Blast (1:26:10) about Mike Clevinger and pitchers facing players they were traded for, the longest strings of identical plate appearances for back-to-back batters, and the pitchers most helped or hurt by their bullpen support.

Audio intro: Neil Young, “Roger and Out”
Audio outro: Band of Horses, “Heartbreak on the 101”

Link to New Yorker Angell obit
Link to NYT Angell obit
Link to Angell SABR bio
Link to Tom Verducci Angell profile
Link to EW episode on Angell’s centennial
Link to centennial episode transcript
Link to Angell book interview episode
Link to Angell mentions on the EW wiki
Link to Patrick Dubuque on Story
Link to MLB.com on Story
Link to Robert Orr on Semien
Link to MLB.com on Gorman and Liberatore
Link to news about the Cardinals’ callups
Link to BP on Gorman
Link to BP on Liberatore
Link to article on debut dates for HoFers
Link to ground-rule double info
Link to MLB ground rules
Link to William Safire on walk-offs
Link to etymology of walk-off homers
Link to 2021 MLB walk-off montage
Link to EW email questions database
Link to Stathead
Link to player pairs with same 4 on-base events
Link to Duck Soup mirror scene
Link to rate of multi-player trades by decade
Link to Ben on pitchers vs. ex-catchers
Link to Stat Blast data on inherited runners
Link to Aaron’s Instagram
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to article on trendiest names
Link to baby-name comparison tool

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the rabidity of opossums and Eugenio Suárez‘s keepie-uppie skills, then discuss the White Sox offense and Tony La Russa’s rationale for batting Andrew Vaughn ninth, Max Scherzer’s oblique injury, and the possibility of a Juan Soto trade, before meeting major leaguers (53:30) Logan Gillaspie (Orioles) and Brandon Hughes (Cubs), and Stat Blasting (1:06:26) about the rapid Tyler/Taylor takeover of MLB player names.

Audio intro: We Are Scientists, “I Don’t Bite”
Audio outro: Kiwi Jr., “Tyler”

Link to the Human Society on opossums
Link to Wildlife Habitat Council on opossums
Link to Opossum Society FAQ
Link to press-box opossum pic
Link to story about press-box opossum
Link to possum vs. opossum definitions
Link to Reddit thread on Suárez
Link to La Russa comment on Vaughn
Link to Tango’s response
Link to Ben on batting pitchers eighth
Link to Jeremy Frank on Garcia
Link to Frank on Garcia again
Link to Scherzer news
Link to deGrom update
Link to Olney on Soto
Link to report on Soto extension offer
Link to Mark Feinsand on trade candidates
Link to video of Gillaspie’s debut
Link to MASN on Gillaspie’s debut
Link to Camden Chat on Gillaspie
Link to 2018 Gillaspie signing story
Link to FB group thread on Gillaspie
Link to Ben on the Salina Stockade
Link to The Only Rule Is it Has to Work
Link to story on Hughes’s debut
Link to video of Hughes’s debut
Link to Hughes fun fact
Link to Longenhagen on Hughes
Link to Tyler Holton story
Link to Stat Blast data on player names
Link to SSA baby names site
Link to The Bob Emergency, Part 1
Link to The Bob Emergency, Part II
Link to Tyler Kepner on Tylers
Link to Stathead on worst second-half tOPS+
Link to Stathead on second-half ERA rises
Link to 1995 article on Green, P. 1
Link to 1995 article on Green, P. 2

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about two of the worst defensive plays of the season, which came courtesy of the Tigers and Nationals, Albert Pujols pitching and walking, the Pirates winning without a hit (but with one correct prediction), and the breakout of Taylor Ward; answer listener emails about banning gray uniforms, baseball jugglers, listing pitchers’ batting handedness in the universal-DH era, vetoing shifts and pitching changes, and catchers squatting too close to hitters; then Stat Blast (1:08:55) about the most consecutive trades made by one team, the best one-day home and road records, and the most back-to-back homers in a season by teams and players, before reflecting on how the (o)possums in the press box in Oakland may get along with their feral-cat neighbors (plus a few postscript updates).

Audio intro: The Society of Rockets, “Error Era”
Audio outro: Chip Taylor, “The Possum Hunter”

Link to video of Twins-Tigers play
Link to video of Nats-Marlins play
Link to WaPo on the Nats’ defense
Link to team Defensive Efficiency
Link to Tigers’ dropped popup
Link to Nationals’ botched rundown
Link to xWOBA leaderboard
Link to Sam Blum on Ward
Link to Dan Szymborski on Ward
Link to Tyler Kepner on Tylers
Link to Jay Jaffe on the hitless win
Link to García’s prediction
Link to story on VanMeter’s prediction
Link to tweet about VanMeter’s prediction
Link to story about Pujols and Gonzalez
Link to Sam on Pujols not walking
Link to Allen juggling on SI cover
Link to video of Peña juggling
Link to video of Guillorme juggling
Link to video of Dietrich juggling
Link to other video of Dietrich juggling
Link to article about Olympic juggling
Link to Jeff on catcher’s interference rates
Link to EW email questions database
Link to Stathead
Link to Stat Blast data on back-to-back HR
Link to MLBTR on Ford trades
Link to story about Schwarber as bench coach
Link to tweet about Wilson as coach
Link to press-box possum pic
Link to Opossum Society FAQ
Link to possum vs. opossum definitions
Link to tweet about Morel’s called shot
Link to video of Nats’ latest misplay(s)

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a wave of baseball ads for cryptocurrencies and NFTs coinciding with crashes in the crypto and NFT markets, injuries to Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw, the dominance of the Dodgers, Yankees, and (especially of late) Astros, the early NL West race, Robinson Canó getting a job as Jarred Kelenic loses one, the Mariners’ player development and the franchise’s future, the managerial line of succession and an unlikely player-manager scenario, and Devin Williams and the limits of effective wildness, plus three “How can you not be pedantic about baseball?” terminology questions about describing scoring and strikeouts and recalling players, and a few closing followups.

Audio intro: Joan Armatrading, “Down to Zero”
Audio outro: The Byrds, “Take a Whiff on Me”

Link to story about crypto sell-off
Link to story about crypto/NFT crash
Link to more on the crypto/NFT crash
Link to luna crash explainer
Link to Nationals tweet
Link to Ad Age story about Nats tweet
Link to Marlins NFT press release
Link to MLB/MLBPA NFT press release
Link to MLB’s Gehrig NFT
Link to Ohtani crypto press release
Link to Harper injury news
Link to Kershaw injury news
Link to fun fact about Astros
Link to Jay Jaffe on Yankees homers
Link to BaseRuns records/run differential
Link to Jay on the Canó signing
Link to Kelenic news
Link to Mariners prospect list
Link to EW email questions database
Link to effectively wild pitchers spreadsheet
Link to 2018 story about emergency goalie
Link to 2018 episode about emergency goalie
Link to FanGraphs on emergency catcher rules
Link to SI on emergency catcher rules
Link to Ohtani prankster story

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