Rodgers stood out early in his high school career outside Orlando, FL as a regular on the showcase circuit who was often the best player on the field at high profile events while also being the youngest. He had mostly solid average tools and good feel through the middle of his prep career. Then in his senior year, the arm strength, raw power, and bat speed all became plus, and he was the odds on favorite to go first overall. But Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, and fellow Florida prep hitter Kyle Tucker all took steps forward in the spring, and the Rockies were able to get Rodgers third overall.

In pro ball, Rodgers has benefitted form the Rockies’ affiliates being extreme hitters’ environments, which has mostly obscured in the surface stats the fact that his pitch selection is below average. It improved a bit in his second taste of Double-A in 2018, then became an issue again in his late-season promotion to Triple-A. He’s fringy at shortstop and as a runner, so most scouts see him sliding over to second base long-term, but he’s good enough to play shortstop everyday if a club doesn’t have better options and focuses on shifting and positioning around him. There’s enough here that it’s likely Rodgers is a solid everyday player of some sort in 2020, but he may not be the star that some have anticipated.

Hampson was a star at Long Beach State and a mainstay on the Team USA collegiate national team. Scouts doubted he’d stay at shortstop and were worried he wouldn’t have enough power to play second base, which is largely why Hampson fell to the third round of his draft despite three years of strong performance.

He’s hit for more power in pro ball than he ever did in college, probably because Long Beach’s marine layer makes it more difficult to hit for power there, and also because the Rockies affiliates are all launching pads. It’s hard to conclude that Hampson’s minor league power output (.457 SLG, mostly via doubles and triples) won’t continue because his future home is going to be Coors Field. He has also stolen way more bases as a pro than he did in college, peaking with 51 steals in 2017, and 38 last year. Rockies prospects are encouraged to run, but Hampson is indeed a 70 runner and will add value on big league basepaths. Though it’s unclear what the Rockies will do about the Daniel Murphy–Ian Desmond–Ryan McMahon logjam that spills over into second base (not to mention Brendan Rodgers’ recent call-up), Hampson seems like a good bet to be a solid everyday player for someone.

Like clockwork, Lambert has taken his turn in a Rockies minor league rotation every fifth (or sixth, or seventh, depending on off days) day since he signed. He’s also a robotic strike-thrower and has walked just 5% of hitters he has faced as a pro. Lambert has basically been this way since high school, when he was just too advanced, even for SoCal high schoolers. Nothing he throws is plus, though you could argue that the fastball is due to its odd approach angle. It sits in the mid-90s and lives in the top part of the strike zone, riding in on the hands of righties. His changeup is average, flashing above, and Lambert has long deployed it with veteran cunning, and he’ll run it back onto the glove-side corner of the plate for looking strikes.

He’s a hyper-efficient strike-thrower with a four-pitch mix, a high-probability fourth starter with little likely upside beyond that.

Rolison was a big name out of high school, reportedly turning down seven figures to go to Ole Miss knowing he would be an eligible sophomore due to his age. He had an up-and-down sophomore spring. Rolison came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season, then slowly regressed. Scouts thought he needed a delivery adjustment in to make him more direct to the plate, a way to improve his fastball control. They also thought he was too reliant on his curveball. To that point, hitters late in the season would sit on the pitch, knowing he had trouble locating his fastball and that he barely threw his changeup. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

Since being drafted, Rolison has worked more frequently with all three of his pitches, throwing 66% of his pitches for strikes, and his velocity has remained in the 92-94 range even as he throws every fifth day (mostly) rather than once a week. He could end up with three above-average pitches and be a No. 4 or No. 4/5 starter.

The caveat surrounding amateur prospects like the one Welker was — big-bodied, risk of first base-only, limited power projection — is that they need to hit all the way up the minor league ladder for teams to value them, and Welker has done exactly that. He’s a .333 career hitter and has above-average raw power that manifests itself as doubles, largely because Welker is a free swinger who relies on his feel to hit to make contact rather than hunting pitches he can drive. He remains a tenuous bet to stay at third base, at best projecting as a 50 glove there for some teams, while he’s below average in our estimation. He’s a college-aged hitter performing at Double-A, and is a summer top 100 candidate if a majority of teams start to consider him a viable third baseman.

Vilade has not developed as expected to this point. We anticipated he’d move quickly to third base in pro ball, but hit for enough power to overcome it. Instead, he has held serve a shortstop and only just begun to see time at third, but has struggled to get to his considerable raw power in games. His lower half usage has improved, but Vilade’s bat still has downward entry into the hitting zone and he doesn’t extend well through contact. He has a nearly 50% groundball rate as a pro and ends up pushing a lot of contact the other way. There’s ceiling here because of Vilade’s shot to stay at short and adjust his way into game power, but there’s a low floor if he moves to third and can’t make tweaks.

It’s hard to find scouts and teams who are all in on Nevin because a) he’s been hurt a lot and b) he profiles as a hit-over-power first baseman. Lean but big-framed, Nevin lacks the lateral agility to be anything more than a 40 or 45 defender at third base. We’ve seen him hit oppo homers but it comes from quality, barreled contact rather than raw strength and power. It’s an atypical offensive recipe for a first base prospect, and it’s rare for contact-centric first baseman to work out, especially when they hit right-handed. Teams have him evaluated as a corner infield tweener who either hits enough to be a regular or ends up on a bench.

After he looked just okay against his elite peers on the summer showcase circuit, Lavigne generated a ton of buzz as a senior the following spring. Northeast popup high schoolers have a dubious track record because they spend all spring mashing bad high school pitching, but lots of teams were in on Lavigne’s spike in power and thought he fit in the second tier of high school hitting prospects in the draft behind the likes of Nolan Gorman and Jarred Kelenic.

Lavigne has not shown that kind of power with the wooden bats in pro ball and his exit velos are actually a bit below big league average, though that’s less worrisome considering his age. He’s a first base-only defender and needs to absolutely mash to profile. We’re cautiously optimistic that he can do it, but he’s out of the gate a little slower than we anticipated.

Vavra had a statistical breakout during his junior year at Minnesota — .386/.455/.614 with 10 homers, everything way up from his sophomore year — and ended up going on the high end of the third to fifth round range in which teams were considering him. He’s a patient hitter with an athletic swing who gets the most out of his slight build without often compromising his feel for contact. One source we spoke with thinks his swing is kind of grooved, but everyone else thinks he’s going to hit, have doubles power, and reach base at an above-average clip. That could play everyday if Vavra sticks at either shortstop or second base, which is where he’s seen time thus far in pro ball, but amateur evaluators thought he may ultimately end up at third base. A realistic outcome, should he shift to third, is that of a versatile lefty utility bat, but Vavra has a shot to be an everyday player.

At times Castellani looks like a mid-rotation starter, and at others he’s too wild to be effective. His tailing low-90s fastball has movement that mimics that of his well-located changeups, and Castellani’s slider has good length and bite away from right-handed hitters. He could garner whiffs with any of those pitches throughout a start. He doesn’t often get into counts where the changeup can be used, and he’s more likely to work back into counts with breaking stuff, often with his curveball.

It is not enough to say that Pint is having issues with control. Even pitchers walking guys at a 10% clip or worse face legitimate questions about their ability to start, and sometimes their ability to pitch in the big leagues at all. Pint is walking more than 30% of the hitters he faces right now, and has been moved to the Low-A bullpen. He simply can’t be a big leaguer with this kind of wildness, but his stuff remains incredible, among the best in the minors.

Through these struggles, Pint has continued to throw in the upper-90s with one of the harder power curveballs on the planet. He has top of the rotation stuff, but even those in amateur scouting who thought his delivery was too violent to repeat (which would make it tough to start) did not think Pint’s strike-throwing issues would be this much of a problem. We’d still take him ahead of relief-only types in this class because the stuff is so good, teams felt good about his makeup before the draft, and Pint is still pretty young. With time, he’s pretty likely to figure something out, though it’s suddenly very likely to be in some kind of bullpen role.

Carreras’ swing needs work. His stride and bat path both have problems, but he swings hard and has promising hand-eye coordination and bat control despite his current issues. Additionally, Carreras has a lean, projectable frame, he’s a plus runner and athletic infield defender who already has experience at multiple positions, and he has above-average bat speed. Some of the mechanical components in the batters box will need to improve, but the raw material here is exciting. Most players this age are older high school or junior college draft prospects. Measured against amateur players his age, Carreras would probably go in the top 50 picks.

Olivarez has had trouble throwing strikes during at least a few of his Extended starts, but he has enviable stuff and physical projection for a teenage lefty. He’s been sitting in the mid-90s this spring and will flash the occasional plus curveball, though the curve has so much velocity separation from the heater that it may be easy for upper-level hitters to lay off. Though he has an ideal frame and his delivery has a beautiful finish, with his rear leg flying up toward the sky à la Cole Hamels as Olivarez follows through, he doesn’t repeat yet, and his control is quite rough as a result. There’s a sizable developmental gap between where Olivarez is now and where he’d need to be to profile as a starting pitching prospect, but he’s young and has traits (velo, spin, frame) coveted in this age group.

Fernandez is purported to have been one of Texas’ PTBNL options in the Jonathan Lucroy trade, and he’s outhit Pedro Gonzalez (whom the Rangers ended up taking) to this point, to the tune of a .275/.365/.520 career line. He’s performed up through Double-A, albeit as a slightly old-for-the-level prospect and in hitter-friendly environs. Fernandez strikes out a lot and he only fits in left field, but he is the youngest and most impressive statistical performer of a large group of lefty outfield power hitters in this system. They all realistically project as the larger half of a corner platoon.

Eusebio had a breakout 2017, then blew out his elbow early in 2018. He’s back throwing bullpens as this list goes to publication. The flashes of brilliance he showed during 2017 Extended indicated a potential No. 4 starter future, as Eusebio’s fastball would creep into the mid-90s and he’d show you a good change and breaking ball. He casts a lot of his pitches to his arm side and mechanical consistency and command are the biggest parts of his development, as he’ll need to improve in that area to remain a starter. Of course, that’s assuming his pre-surgery stuff returns.

Tinoco has taken his four-pitch mix to the bullpen. His fastball is hard and comes in at a very tough angle while his slider and curveball each flash plus, though they’re sometimes (especially the curve) easy to identify out of his hand, and he doesn’t miss as many bats as is typical for someone with this kind of power stuff. Tinoco has had some injury issues, but the relief role may help keep him healthier moving forward. He should debut at some point this season.

Almonte has moved to the bullpen and upped the usage of his mid-90s fastball and above-average slider. He’s a big league-ready relief piece.

He’s quite little, but Palma is an athletic backstop with catch and throw skills, as well as advanced feel for contact. He’s twitchy and mobile, which bodes well for his ball-blocking future, and he’s a fine receiver and pitch framer already, though he hasn’t caught a lot of big league-quality stuff yet. It’s possible the physical grind of catching will take an outsized toll on Palma’s little body and he won’t hit enough to be anything, but on tools, at the very least, he looks like a good backup catching prospect.

Feltner spent a chunk of his college career in the bullpen, and he projects in a big league relief role for most pro teams. His arm action is quite long, and while he can bully hitters with his fastball in the zone, he lacks precise command of his stuff. Feltner throws hard, though, and his changeup has big time arm side movement. It’s going to miss big league bats, but an average, slurvy breaking ball likely won’t be able to unless he can start to put it where he wants to more exactly. Unlike most of the other pitching prospects in this system, Feltner hasn’t had a myriad of injury issues and is still being developed as a starter.

Fuentes is a 3B/1B with plus power and some swing and miss issues, problems that will likely relegate him to bench/platoon duty in the big leagues.

The Rockies made Doyle their second consecutive second round college reliever in 2017 and after his velocity was way down just after his draft, he has since been as advertised. Mid-90s fastball, plus slider, a typical middle relief fit. He’s on pace to help the Rockies bullpen next year.

Some teams thought Bowden had been buried by the pitching depth at Vanderbilt and might be able to start in pro ball. A second round pick and $1.6 million bonus were indicators that the Rockies might be one of them but, perhaps in part due to injury, he’s only pitched in relief as a pro. He has a mid-90s sinker and plus changeup, which should enable him to pitch in middle relief.

Tyler has a long arm action and he’s had injury issues dating back to college, but he throws in the mid-90s and has a plus changeup, so he’s likely to be a solid reliever.

Of all the players signed during the 2017 July 2 span, Cruz had the most promising feel to hit. He’s a lefty infield bat with natural feel for lift, a projectable frame, and a good chance of staying at second base, though he’ll probably only be okay there.

Lots of Rockies prospects are two-year DSL guys by virtue of the fact that the Rockies have no AZL team, but Tovar is so physically immature that he’d probably be of that ilk anyway. He does have some feel to hit from both sides of the plate and his swing has some natural lift when he’s swinging left-handed, but he’d have to get much stronger for that to matter at all. He has plus hands and infield footwork and will likely grow into enough arm strength for the left side. It’ll likely be a long time before he’s anything at all, and he may end up as a utility infielder at best, but switch-hitting middle infield fits typically find big league roles.

Diaz is the first Cuban amateur ever signed by Colorado. He’s an athletic, instinctive middle infield prospect with modest physical projection and promising bat to ball skills. He has all-fields feel for contact and will likely be a hit-over-power offensive player by a good margin. He’s seen action all over the infield but the bat might only profile at shortstop in an everyday capacity. He’s more likely a utility type.

Lawrence is a side-armer with a tailing, upper-90s fastball and sweeping slider. It’s late-inning stuff, but too often Lawrence struggles with control and pitch execution. It needs to improve if he’s to lock down a big league bullpen role at all, but there’s ceiling here due to the stuff.

Few infielders in the minors have Jazz’s bat speed, and even fewer have his swagger and flare. Though his high-effort hacks detract from his ability to make contact, Chisholm has shocking power for someone his size. When he really cuts it loose (which is often), he rotates with a violence and explosion reminiscent of Javier Baez and, like Baez, Chisholm is a high-risk prospect whose all-or-nothing style of hitting might ultimately be his undoing.

He has a one-note approach that mostly consists of him trying to ambush first-pitch fastballs. He’ll take some ugly swings when he’s cheating on a heater and instead gets something offspeed, though he has the bat control to put these balls in play if they’re near the zone. His strikeout rate (29% for his career) in undoubtedly a red flag, but because Chisholm is such a clean fit at shortstop (plus range, actions, and arm), he has some wiggle room on the offensive side, and shortstops with this kind of pop don’t exactly grow on trees. There’s star ceiling here, but also volcanic instability.

The list of catchers with speed comparable to Varsho’s is pretty short. J.T. Realmuto and Jorge Alfaro are two current examples, but Varsho reaches a top speed faster than either of them, and is an actual threat to steal bases. He’s also a doubles machine with natural feel for gap-to-gap contact, and if soft liners trickle between outfielders, Varsho can turn those into hustle doubles.

He remains a below-average receiver and often has trouble firmly squeezing balls in his glove, at times struggling to block breaking stuff in the dirt. Because Varsho is an above-average athlete, most scouts think these aspects of catching will become viable in time and that Varsho may just be behind in this regard due to his cold weather, small school background. His fringe arm strength plays up on scouts’ stopwatches because he’s very quick out of his crouch, so Dbacks games won’t turn into track meets with him behind the plate. He has a good chance to be an offensive-minded, everyday catcher.

Duplantier had been injury free since college (when he dealt with shoulder problems), until 2018, when he had hamstring issues in the spring, and biceps tendinitis later in the summer. The lost innings resulted in an Arizona Fall League stint, during which Duplantier was arguably the best non-Whitley pitching prospect who was a lock to start. Despite the biceps issue, his velocity was fine in the fall. Duplantier sits 93-96 and makes heavy use of three good secondary pitches. The horizontal action on his slider only plays away from righties, but the curveball and changeup will help mitigate some of those issues, as well as the platoon issues that may arise from Duplantier’s lower arm slot.

He doesn’t throw especially hard but the baseball appears to explode out of Widener’s hand, and it often gets on hitters much quicker than they’re expecting. Acquired in that massive, three-team, Steven Souza deal, Widener is a curvaceous 6-foot righty with several above-average pitches and average command. Much of the industry thought he was a reliever coming out of college, but the Yankees and Dbacks bought in on Widener as a starter, and they appear to have been correct.

The 2018 extended spring rehab group at Salt River Fields often included Jake Lamb and Steven Souza. Robinson, still 17 at the time, was just as big as both of them and about as fast as Souza, who is a 60 runner underway. Robinson is a Bahamian man-child, built like an SEC wide receiver and about as fast once he really gets going. He performed fairly well in his first pro season and was pushed to the Pioneer League late in the summer.

He has some swing and miss issues, and his bat path needs some work to get to all the power that’s coming, but the foundation for a combination of contact and power is present. It’s unlikely that Robinson stays in center field forever, and he may even need to move to right while he’s still in the minors, but the power that comes with all that good weight could approach the top of the scale. He’s a high risk, high upside teenage power-hitting prospect.

Perdomo is among the most advanced switch-hitting teenagers on the planet, possessing innate feel for contact from both sides of the plate despite what can sometimes be an awkward-looking swing. As of list publication, he has a plus-plus walk rate over about 150 pro plate appearances, enough to be confident that he has value-adding feel for the strike zone. Not only that, but he is a potential 55 or 60 glove at short. Already procedurally advanced, Perdomo will likely get quicker and more explosive as his body matures, but his frame is not so large that he projects to third base; he’s a high-probability middle infielder.

The quality of Perdomo’s contact may eventually result in power output beyond his raw grade; he’ll be a star if that happens. If not, a defensive asset at short with a plus bat and excellent ball/strike recognition is still an everyday player.

Pre-draft questions about Thomas focused on his physicality, or lack thereof, despite his long track record of hitting against elite competition at amateur showcase events around the country. He’s well-conditioned, but short, built narrowly, and likely to max out with a frame similar to Brett Gardner’s. And Thomas projects to have a similar skillset. It’s rare that a high school hitter from Chicago is this polished, especially one as young as Thomas, who was barely 18 on draft day.

He runs well enough to project in center field (though his reads from the corners are much better right now and he might just be a plus corner glove, also like Gardner), which makes the unenthusiastic, frame-based power projection less concerning. There’s some tweener fourth outfielder risk here because of the lack of power projection and potential move off of center field, but it’s reasonable to hope some combination of contact, on base ability, and defense make up for that and enable Thomas to be a regular.

Signed for $1.85 million last July, Guzman has yet to set foot on a baseball field in the U.S., but he’s already one of the most exciting players in this system. He has a rare combination of speed, frame, and swing foundation, a triumvirate that gives Guzman a chance to be a five-tool star, something most prospects simply don’t have a chance to become.

He has a loose, whippy swing that he doesn’t always control, and had among the best straightline speed in the 2018 July 2 class. The footspeed makes Guzman a rangy outfield defender and likely to stay in center. His hands have enough life in the box that he might do offensive damage, too. We have no data on important aspects of Guzman’s ultimate profile, making him as risky a prospect as he is skilled. He may not come stateside until this fall for instructional league, unless he so convincingly dominates the DSL that Arizona is compelled to promote him.

Teams with Extended Spring coverage in Arizona were split as to which of the two Dbacks shortstop prospects they preferred until Geraldo Perdomo separated himself with his summer performance. Some teams were early Peguero advocates, citing his age, superior athleticism, and a build comparable to a young Jean Segura’s.

Like most of Arizona’s teenage shortstop prospects, Peguero earned a late-summer promotion with early-season performance, slashing .309/.356/.457 in the DSL. His swing is shorter than a mid-inning station identification and he takes good at-bats for someone his age, so there’s big ceiling on the hit tool if his timing at the plate improves. He’s also a rangy defender with a plus arm and at least average hands. He can go into the hole, backhand a ball, plant, and hose runners. The frame isn’t favorable for power projection, but Peguero’s hands are so quick that he might be able to pull and lift enough balls to actually produce some homers. His swing is not currently geared for that type of contact, though. Regardless, the bat and defensive ability is promising, as is the frame and athletic ability. He has everyday shortstop upside.

Tabor’s velocity seems to have plateaued after it exploded as his wiry frame filled out later in high school. He’s sitting in the low-90s, with a breaking ball and changeup that each flash above average. He’s athletic, his arm slot creates rise on his fastball and bat-missing, vertical action on his breaking stuff, and Tabor has unusually good feel for his changeup, especially for a northeast prep arm. It looks like he’s going to move along developmentally with the advanced teenagers from last year’s rookie-ball group. He’s the best long-term pitching prospect in this system, and has a chance to be a No. 4 starter if the velo finds another gear, more likely a No. 4/5 if it does not.

Alexander fell out of the top 10 rounds of last year’s draft due to questions about his signability, hit tool, and age relative to his peers. He was almost 19 on draft day, which, combined with the strikeout issues, moved him way down the boards of teams who care about those variables, especially together. He ended up signing for a very reasonable $500,000, then hit .362 against AZL pitching and was eventually promoted to the Pioneer League.

He’s an advanced defender with an 80 arm (the teams most bearish on his bat in high school wanted to see him on the mound) and above-average raw power, which Alexander’s pre-daft proponents insisted he’d get to despite the strikeouts. We don’t know much about the plate discipline aspect of the profile yet. The low end of the spectrum makes the offensive skillset read like Tim Beckham’s, but Alexander projects as a better defender.

McCarthy’s older brother Joe was a hyped prospect who slid on draft day due to a down spring stemming from a back issue. Jake also missed most of his draft spring, but with a broken wrist. He returned not long before the draft and did not look very good, and teams had mixed opinions about him on draft day. Some thought he just needed more time to get back to full strength and speed, while others were scared off by their post-injury looks, which were so bad that multiple scouts told us they thought he may have been better off sitting out rather than giving teams a bad look just before the draft.

At his best, McCarthy shows at least average raw power, plus speed, some feel to hit, and is a center field fit. His swing is naturally geared for opposite field contact, which will likely cap his power output unless he undergoes a swing change. That will be less necessary if McCarthy stays in center field. Season-long failure to hit in the Cal League will leave us with more questions about McCarthy than we had entering the year, especially if his early-season struggles with strikeouts persist.

There are lots of different ways to frame arguments about Leyba. On the one hand, he’s a switch-hitting middle infielder who has made lots of contact — Leyba is a .285 career hitter — over six pro seasons. On the other, he has been hurt a lot — shoulder surgery, most recently — and may be painted into too small a defensive corner to be rosterable if he doesn’t hit enough to be a regular. It’s important to be mindful of prospect fatigue creeping in here, as Leyba really broke out during the summer of 2014 when as a teenager, he hit a combined .323 in the Penn and Midwest Leagues. He was sent to Arizona as part of the three-way, Didi Gregorius-headlined trade that offseason, had a bad 2015 in the Cal League, bounced back in 2016, and has basically been hurt since.

Because of Leyba’s size and lack of power, he has to keep making high-end rates of contact to profile as an everyday player. If he lacks sufficient arm strength for shortstop coming out of the shoulder surgery, it puts even more pressure on the hit tool, because a bench role is less feasible for someone without defensive versatility.

Middle infielders with power are rare and yet Young, who is exactly that, somehow lasted until the 37th round of his draft and signed for just $3,000. This is the Cardinals’ archetypical draftee — a power-first prospect with questionable mobility. Collect enough of these and, through a combination of luck and good player development, some of them will turn into passable defenders and become solid big leaguers or tradable assets like Young, who was sent to Arizona in the Paul Goldschmidt deal.

Though he does most of his damage on pitches on the inner half, Young has enough barrel control to spoil pitches away from him until he gets something he can square up. When Young connects, he does so with power. Buff and square-shouldered, Young’s physicality is a driving component of his power but it’s also why he’s somewhat limited defensively. Young has seen time at shortstop, third base, and left field as a pro but was mostly kept at second base in 2018. He should be a passable defender there, but his lack of defensive versatility could be a barrier to a call-up unless he hits enough to be an everyday player. He’s a realistic internal candidate to play the kind of role Wilmer Flores is currently playing on Arizona’s active roster.

Toolsy and physical, Patino has an exciting combination of speed and power, as well as promising ball/strike recognition. What he appears to lack at this point is barrel control and a bat path that enables the power. Those are important components and may not be easy to fix, especially the bat control issue. But Patino’s ball/strike and breaking ball recognition could help mitigate those issues, and his ceiling (a high OBP center fielder with power) is lofty if they’re overcome. A max-effort player with a fairly mature build, Patino seems poised to have a strong statistical summer against AZL pitching and defenses, perhaps enough that he’ll see some Northwest League time late in the year.

At times, Frias looks like a stiff, velo-only bullpen prospect. At others, he’s competing in or near the zone with four pitches, including a splitter that got much better over the winter. All four pitches give hitters a vastly different look. Frias’ mid-90s fastball has tailing action, his curveball has vertical depth and eats up hitters who are cheating on velo, the split has late bottom when it’s on, and the slider has horizontal, cutting action. The movement profile of Frias’ fastball may not be the best for missing bats, but it’s likely to be an impact pitch because of the velocity. He could end up with three average secondaries (there’s a chance the split becomes better than that) and enough strikes to start, making him a potential No. 4/5 starter.

Green was a 14th round senior sign last year and like most senior signs, had 45/50 stuff in college. He was 90-94 with two average breaking balls and had little college experience because he didn’t move into the rotation until his senior season.

This spring, however, Green’s stuff was up. He was 92-95, touching 96, and flashing plus secondary stuff including a good changeup. The Dbacks may have found something here, though there’s no way to be sure if the velo uptick will hold water or not. He has No. 4 starter stuff if it does, and some scouts with Dbacks coverage this spring prefered Green to several more high-profile arms in the system. He’s currently on the IL with biceps tendinitis.

Clarke has a four-pitch mix that plays in part because of big extension. He has feel for locating his cutter (glove side) and change (arm side) better than he does for his other pitches, but his fastball sneaks up on hitters because of the extension, so Clarke has command margin for error in the strike zone. He’s a low-variance fifth starter prospect who should see significant big league time this season.

Lopez seems to have moved past a tumultuous first few chapters of his Dbacks tenure and settled into a seventh and eighth inning role. He blows upper-90s heat past hitters at the top of the zone and above it, and he generates flaccid swings at his slider when working away from righties. Once developed as a starter, the return of a third pitch might enable Lopez to be an elite reliever down the line, if he doesn’t already have high-leverage stuff. He’s under team control until 2025 and has unusually high trade value for a single-inning reliever, especially for teams unconcerned about his early issues.

Ellis has a very quiet, easy swing but somehow still generates plus power. He has middling pitch recognition, which sometimes causes him to mistime pitches. This manifests as lots of awkward or checked swings, but he doesn’t typically flail and whiff, and Ellis is strong enough that the contact has a chance to be meaningful even if he didn’t take a great cut. It’s a fair, power-over-hit corner profile that takes a hit if Ellis should ever need to move to first base. So far he’s been playable, but not impactful, at third.

Smith struck out just 12 times as a college junior and had 25 more walks than strikeouts during his entire UVA tenure. Pre-draft questions about his ability to hit for power in games have proven to be pertinent. But Smith hits and he walks, so a relevant swing change, even one that sacrifices some contact, could lead to a breakout here. After some early-season statistical indicators that one might be occurring, Smith’s groundball rate has regressed to the mean. He’s a speculative low-end regular at first base.

After a strong 2017, Diaz spent 2018 injured (twice) and unproductive. His physical tools remain the same; Diaz runs and throws well, and has above-average bat speed and power. While some of his 2018 swoon was a result of injury and the offensive environment in the Midwest League, some of his issues were also swing-related. He has to take big, long, full-armed hacks to generate that bat speed, and so he lacks elegant feel for the barrel. He’s playing both outfield corners now, not center. It makes the hit tool problems more of a concern, but ultimately, this is a college-aged hitter with tools that come off the board fairly early on day two.

Vargas’ delivery has a cadence that hitters seem able to time, but it’s graceful, athletic, and repeatable. He has burgeoning control of No. 4/5 starter stuff, led by a two-plane breaking ball that Vargas can locate in the zone and beneath consistently. He’s well built, throws pretty hard, and has performed up through Double-A, and he’s now on the 40-man. There’s a chance he sees his first big league time this season.

Ginkel’s velocity has exploded since college, and he now sits 93-96 with tough angle. He also has two good secondaries, a change and slider that both have late, downward movement. He’s a likely long-term bullpen piece.

Alvarez signed for $65,000 in 2017. Newly 18 and still fairly projectable, Alvarez has already touched 95 and is flashing a plus split. He has below-average breaking ball spin but sometimes creates good shape and depth on it. He’ll be measured against recently-drafted high school arms in this year’s AZL, and there are some pitchability and breaking ball questions that need answering, but the velo and splitter are promising.

Mercer was a max-effort 94-97 in college, had scattershot fastball command, and a plus changeup. His velo is down and neither of his two breaking balls has great movement. We think he’s a Tyler Clippard-style changeup reliever so long as the velocity returns.

Goddard was worked hard at Kansas, sometimes throwing around 120 pitches several starts in a row, and his velocity was down after last year’s draft. He’s a big-framed guy with average stuff that plays up due to extension and his fastball has life that competes in the strike zone. Realistically he’s a fifth or sixth starter but let’s see how the fastball plays and what happens to the velocity when Goddard is handled in a way that prioritizes development rather than winning Big 12 games.

Barrosa isn’t toolsy but he has good feel to hit from both sides of the plate and terrific defensive instincts in center field. He’s stout and not very projectable, but already looks like a potential bench out field type who can play all three spots and let you match up late in games.

Peacock has a heavy, mid-90s sinker that has enabled him to generate a 78% groundball rate this year. His slider has a 2800 rpm spin rate but visual evaluations of that pitch put it closer to average. His changeup moves and tails, but is often easy to identify out of his hand due to altered release/arm speed. On some level, Peacock is a one-pitch 25-year-old, but on another he has a dominant, grounder-inducing fastball and his secondaries have some characteristics that may just need to be refined for one or both of them to be effective.

Weiss is a four-pitch (maybe five — there may be both a slider and cutter) strike-thrower whose overhand, trebuchet delivery creates vertical action on most of his stuff. He may be a backend starter.

Holton blew out his elbow in his first 2018 start at Florida State and needed Tommy John. He was only throwing 87-90 before the injury but both his changeup and breaking ball were flashing plus. So long as his stuff comes back after surgery, he’ll probably carve the lower minors. There are some instances of velocity upticks coming out of Tommy John (Walker Buehler is a prominent recent example) and if Holton has one, he’ll rocket up this list.

Lewis got $125,000 in the 2018 12th round. He’s very tall, long, and is athletic for his size, and he has great changeup feel. He has below-average fastball velocity, but it plays up a few ticks because of extension, and Lewis doesn’t often make crushable mistakes. His slider is okay when it’s located, but the changeup is Lewis’ best swing and miss option against hitters of either handedness. He has sixth starter stuff on the surface, but there’s a chance that 6 or better command develops late (Lewis is already 23) because of Lewis’ size. If that happens, he’ll pitch in the back of a rotation.

Bart was a solid mid-tier prep prospect in the Atlanta suburbs who a couple of clubs really liked, but they ultimately couldn’t meet his price, pushing him to Georgia Tech. He made the leap between his sophomore and junior years, growing into his athleticism and developing plus raw power along with above average defensive tools and arm strength. The defensive tools are especially rare for a catcher of Bart’s size, as it’s much easier for a more compact-framed player to excel behind the plate. Bart has the rare ability to slow the game down defensively and scouts rave about his makeup, game calling, and game preparation.

At the plate, Bart has big power and gets to it pretty often in games, particularly to his pull side, where he hit a majestic shot that was never found over the facade of the football complex in left field at Georgia Tech’s stadium. But while he is exceptional behind the plate, Bart doesn’t have the same ability to slow the game at it, with elevated strikeout rates in his draft year and just okay pitch selection. The bat speed is good and he doesn’t have trouble against velocity, and some scouts point to his solid pro debut as evidence that Bart was just frustrated by being pitched around and developed some bad habits in college. Since literally everything else you could want except for contact is already present, most assume that Bart will figure out a way to get to a 40 to 50 bat with above average game power and above average defense, even if it’s on the job in the big leagues in 2020. He broke his hand early in 2019 and will miss several weeks. He’s a strong Arizona Fall League possibility.

After he looked like a newly-drafted force of nature during the summer of 2017, Ramos’ physical tools actually regressed last year. The bat speed and quality of contact both dipped, and Ramos was noticeably out-shined by the other (mostly older) Futures Game participants during batting practice. Ramos developed some feel for opposite field contact during this span, something he retained as the power returned this spring. He’s hitting lasers to all fields now, adept at peppering the right center field gap.

Built like, and as fast as, a bowling ball SEC running back, Ramos is going to stay in center field for a while but most scouts think he’ll eventually move to a corner. That could be a problem if such a move occurs sooner than anticipated, as Ramos has had whiff/discipline issues in the past, though they’ve been much more palatable this year. He has Mitch Haniger/Randal Grichuk-ish tools. Staying in center will be important, as will retaining some of this new plate discipline. If both happen, Ramos is going to be a highly entertaining star.

Luciano’s broad, square, muscular shoulders look like they belong to a D1 high school football prospect. He has one of the better frames of all the 17-year-old hitters in pro ball, and plenty of room to add power to a body that already produces a lot of it. Luciano has explosive hands and a natural uppercut swing. He hits many more balls out during BP than is typical for a hitter this age, and has taken his peers deep in games, too.

Luciano’s feet and actions are workable on the infield but he struggles with throwing velocity and accuracy when he’s forced to throw from a lower arm slot, as shortstops often are. If he can’t correct that, he’ll need to move to the outfield. If he can, this is a shortstop with 80 bat speed. Luciano is a potential superstar. Much of his profile (the plate discipline, ultimate defensive home) is still not in focus, but this young man has rare physical talent.

This system has three teenagers with awesome bat speed, and Canario is one. Some of his batting practice sessions during the Giants’ new January instructional camp were even up there with Joey Bart’s. But much of Canario’s game is unkempt. He has mediocre natural timing and feel to hit, and his front side often leaks, which impacts his ability to spoil breaking stuff away from him. His lower half got thicker and stronger during the offseason, making it more likely that he ends up in right field rather than center. But this is a potential middle-of-the-order hitter because of the raw power; the swing has natural loft, and the early-career plate discipline data is strong. There’s huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves, but of course, this type of prospect often fails to fully actualize.

The Giants proactively sent Santos, who was acquired from Boston as part of the Eduardo Nunez deal, to the Northwest League as an 18-year-old because his stuff was simply too powerful for AZL youngsters. He was 93-96 with sinker and cutter variation last year, and his breaking ball was often plus. He threw more strikes in affiliated ball than he did during the spring in extended, then arrived to 2019 camp with a better changeup. A strong breakout candidate, Santos had a shoulder strain in late-April. There’s probably no more velo coming because Santos is a mature-bodied guy, but he already throws hard so that doesn’t really matter. He has mid-rotation upside as long as the command improvement holds and this shoulder issue doesn’t become chronic.

Hjelle body comps to a young Pau Gasol and is remarkably athletic for his size. His delivery is graceful and fluid, and he has no trouble repeating it nor fielding his position, as he’s quick off the mound to corral bunts and cover first base, both of which can be challenging for XXL pitchers. Hjelle’s (it’s pronounced like peanut butter and _____ ) fastball only sits in the low-90s but plays up because of extension, life, and the angle created by his height. Those traits in concert with one another make for a heater that competes for whiffs in the zone. The secondaries are closer to average, often below, though Hjelle can locate them. He’s a pretty safe No. 4/5 starter candidate, though we might be underrating the impact of Hjelle’s size on hitters’ discomfort.

A raw, arm strength goon for what seemed like forever, Adon found slider feel late last season and had dominant stretches where he looked like a potential closer. He has carried that into the early part of this season, more frequently dotting his slider just off the plate to his glove side and even getting it over for strikes when he’s behind in counts. Adon still just kind of chucks his fastball and hopes it arrives near the plate, but he’s going to get away with mistakes in the zone because of the velocity. Likely to have harrowing bouts of wildness, Adon has high-leverage/closer stuff and could be one of the better relief pitchers in baseball at some point, though he may already be in his late-20s once things really click.

Anderson has an unusually deep repertoire for a pitcher who scouts overwhelmingly project into the bullpen. He has a two seamer, a four seamer that has natural cut to it when he locates to his glove side, a slider (his best pitch dating back to college), and a changeup which has been the focal point of development since Anderson entered pro ball. A casualty of Florida’s ability to recruit and develop pitching, Anderson was a college reliever who would’ve been starting on just about every other college team in the country, so there’s a reason he lacks some of the finer attributes scout want to see from a starter. He could be an inefficient No. 4/5, but he might be really good in a multi-inning relief role where he throws 80 or more innings.

Webb spent most of 2016 on the shelf due to Tommy John, and the little bit of 2017 for which he was healthy he spent in a well-manicured relief role. Then he broke out in 2018, as he retained big stuff through a move back to the rotation. He was holding a tailing 92-95 deep into starts, topping out at 97, and spinning in a dastardly, bat-missing breaking ball. Unrefined fastball control led to a lot of bullpen projection, but Webb hadn’t pitched very much because of injury, so it seemed possible that it might yet improve.

Early in 2019, Webb’s stuff was down a bit, more 91-94 and touching 95, before he got popped for PEDs and was suspended for 80 games. He’s missed about two years of development due to the TJ and this suspension and developmentally is more like a junior college arm than an advanced Double-A prospect. He has Top 100 stuff (assuming the 2018 heater comes back after this suspension) and if he can somehow refine fastball command and the changeup (or a third pitch of some kind), he could be a No. 4 starter. We don’t know how the PEDs, which Webb denies knowledge of using, may have impacted his stuff. He seems like a logical Fall League candidate.

Of all the players we’ve written up on the team reports (there are about 1,000 on The Board and well over that if you count the Others of Note section of the lists) the gap between what Hilson is now and what he might be is perhaps the biggest. He has scintillating physical ability. Speed, arm strength, barrel quickness, burgeoning power, hit-thieving defensive ability in center field. But he is raw as steak tartare and often takes hapless, juvenile swings that demonstrate an alarming lack of baseball feel, as evidenced by his 67 strikeouts in 166 2018 at-bats.

Likely a long term project who will move through the minors with this exciting young contingent of talent from Latin America, Hilson’s chances of even making the big leagues are probably in the 20-30% range, and that may be optimistic. But on the scouting card, the tools read like David Dahl’s or Starling Marte’s, so there’s a chance for a star turn here, as well. It will likely take a long time and there will likely be developmental bumps in the road, but Hilson has monster, long-term potential and would be a peacock feather in the cap of Giants player dev if he can realize it.

This is one of the weirder pitchers in all of the minors. At times, Doval will sit in the upper-90s with cutting action; at others, he’s living in the low-90s with no movement. Scouts think the cause is that he doesn’t grip the baseball in a consistent manner. Doval also has a delivery totally unique to him. It’s a long, swooping, side-winding look that creates cut/rise on the ball. He also throws a hard, horizontal slider.

The Trackman readout for Doval is shocking. His primary fastball/cutter spins in at about 2700 rpm, which is incredible considering how hard he throws. He also generates nearly seven feet of extension, and the effective velocity of his fastball is about 2 mph harder than it’s actual velo.

He has outings where he walks everyone and gives up a bunch of runs before he accrues an out, and he has outings where he’s untouchable for several innings. It’d be somewhat terrifying to acquire Doval if the outcome of a trade for him dictated one’s job security, but his stuff is bewitching and we think he has a chance to be an elite bullpen weapon if he ever figures things out.

Corry was a pretty raw fastball/curveball high school prospect whose changeup got much better throughout last season, which is especially relevant because that pitch’s movement pairs better with his fastball than the curve does. He’s a fairly stiff, short strider and often has scattershot fastball control, so there’s significant relief risk here. But Corry’s pitch mix is more complete than most of the other arms in this system and he’s the youngest non-Santos arm on the main section of this list, so you could argue he belongs up near Hjelle if you think he ends up starting. Realistically he’s a No. 4/5 or a three-pitch relief piece.

It appears that Beede has ditched the cutter/slider thing bestowed upon him for a time and is, as he was in college, a fastball/curveball/changeup guy again. His velocity also seems to have been reborn. He’s once again lighting up radar guns with a mid-90s heater that has touched 98. His changeup has power sinking movement and should miss bats when Beede locates it competitively, but he’s more consistently able to do that with his curveball. Fastball control likely keeps Beede in the bullpen even though he did have stretches this spring where he looked like a mid-rotation starter. He’s 26, but looks like a strong three-pitch reliever. Maybe there’s a chance for high-leverage or multi-inning work here.

Built at age 18 like Aramis Ramirez was in his prime, it’s likely that Toribio’s promising pro debut was at least somewhat a product of physical maturity. He has above-average raw power already and generates it with a comfortable, understated swing. He’s shown feel for contact in games. He’s too pull-heavy at times, or at least tries to pull pitches he shouldn’t, ones he should just take. So there’s power, early indicators that the contact skills will be fine, and a chance to stay at third. The size/frame means there’s risk Toribio ends up at first base if he gets bigger, and also probably means we shouldn’t expect much of an increase in raw power. He has a chance to be an everyday third baseman, and lots of other viable outs if he can’t get there, including a corner infield platoon of some kind and a low-end first baseman. Or maybe more power comes, and he’s a 50 at first.

Boxed out of a surprisingly crowded corner outfield situation in Detroit, Gerber should get an opportunity to become a lefty-hitting platoon corner outfielder with power. He has at least above-average raw and has adjusted his swing to better ensure consistent lift. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he mashes right-handed pitching and plays a very good corner outfield, so he might play against lefties, too, and just hit toward the bottom of the order on those days. He’s older, but is a clear fit in a limited but necessary role.

The Giants signed Pomares for just shy of $1 million during the 2018 July 2 period. He’s already almost 19 and is, as one can probably guess, a little more advanced and a little less projectable than most other recent J2 signees. Pomares is a center field prospect with feel to hit. His swing is geared for all-fields contact and while he has above-average bat speed, it’s unlikely that he hits for power without a swing adjustment. He looked a little thicker and stronger than anticipated during San Francisco’s January instructs and early in the spring, so there may be less certainty that he stays in center than there was when Pomares was in Cuba. He looks more like a fourth outfield prospect than a potential regular right now, but Cuban players often have long stretches away from baseball and training, so what we’ve seen so far in Arizona might just be rust.

Black is the oldest player on The Board and he’s only here, despite a career rife with injury and inconsistency, because his stuff is so good. He’s among the hardest throwers in professional baseball and also one of the best at spinning the baseball. He is wild and the quality of his secondary stuff is inconsistent, but at times he looks unhittable. He struck out 33 in 23 big league innings last year, but he’s currently on the IL with a forearm strain. He could one day pitch his way into high-leverage innings as long as he has this kind of stuff, which he has maintained despite the many maladies.

Built like a one of the moai sculptures on Easter Island, Genoves faces size-based questions about his ability to catch long term. But he has a plus arm, he’s procedurally advanced for a 20-year-old, and he has the leadership qualities and intangibles that have an outsized impact at catcher. He also has plus power, enough to put balls out to right center, though Genoves’ current approach to contact doesn’t often enable it. He pulls just about everything.

Genoves’ future is heavily dependent on him staying behind the plate and ideally, he’d catch more than just 33 games (last year’s total at an affiliate, not including extended) throughout the course of this year, and show that the workload doesn’t detract from his bat or agility. The power gives him a shot to be a regular, though a backup role is probably more likely.

The Giants drafted Rivera after his 2017 freshman season, but he went back to school, raised his stock, and was the first JUCO arm off the board the following year. He has power stuff — 93-96 with cut action at times, and a plus curveball — but is wild and may be a reliever, though probably a very good one.

Wong was holding 93-96 with sink deep into games as a junior, he throws strikes, and he occasionally snaps off a good curveball. Changeup development and refined command are areas of need, and they will likely dictate Wong’s ceiling, which is probably that of a No. 4/5 starter who induces weak contact rather than strikeouts.

Shaw is one of many whiff-heavy corner bats with huge power who floats around the upper levels of the minors, putting up big power numbers while struggling to find a big league role if their parent club has someone at 1B/DH. The Giants have tried Shaw in the outfield but scouts don’t think he’s playable out there. Shaw has the advantage of hitting left-handed, but unless the Giants make a concerted effort to give him reps soon (they demoted him to Double-A to start 2019, so not a great sign) he’ll probably bounce around on waivers until a team with 40-man space — and the time to see whether or not Shaw can hit big league pitching — gives him a chance. Sometimes this is how clubs fall into Jesus Aguilar and Christian Walker, but it’s also the fate of many a Quad-A hitter.

Miller’s lack of arm strength really boxes him in at second base, which means he has to hit enough to be a regular there because defensive versatility, and therefore a viable utility role, isn’t part of his profile. Much of the pressure will be on the bat to ball skills as Miller is a compact guy with average bat speed. He probably needs to be a 60 bat or better to play every day, which is feasible considering that his attributes, dating back to high school, are lead by a short swing and barrel control. He’s off to a good start in 2019, walking nearly as much as he has struck out.

Though he looked somewhat better defensively during January workouts, Gonzalez still projects over to first base for all the scouts we’ve spoken with, and his inability to hit breaking stuff makes that pretty scary. He’s a hard worker with a frame built for longevity and he has arguably the best raw power in this system. His future looks much like Shaw’s, but Jacob hasn’t had the in-game power output yet.

Last year, Avelino shuttled back and forth between Double-A (which he crushed) and Triple-A (which he did not) while with the Yankees, then was sent to San Francisco at the end of August as part of the McCutchen trade. He has rare power for a viable defensive shortstop but hits the ball on the ground so much that it’s highly unlikely he does much in-game damage with the bat unless his swing is overhauled. And while solid at short, Avelino’s not so good that you’d live with zero offense and play him everyday. He’ll likely be a glove-first utility guy, but he hasn’t played much second or third base yet and he’s already 24.

Former MVP George Bell has two sons also named George Bell in pro ball — this one and George Bryner Bell, who is with Oakland. This Bell is a body/power/speed junior college sleeper who has some plate discipline and bat control issues. He has a shot to break out in the Northwest League this summer and merit a promotion to Low-A for the stretch run. August will be a key time to evaluate him if that’s the case.

We typically slot relievers in their mid or late-20s in the honorable mention section of lists, especially if they’ve had injury issues. But the four you’re about to read about all have premium stuff and, at least at times, look capable of handling late-inning duty. Arm injuries have limited Gustave to 20 total innings since 2016, but his fastball was back into the upper-90s this spring. His slider is closer to average right now, which may mean he maxes out in a lower-leverage role.

Vizcaino has been hurt for long stretches during the last few years and was moved to the bullpen this spring. He’ll touch 98 but sit mostly 91-95, and he has an above-average changeup, as well as two lesser breaking balls.

Wolff was part of the Matt Moore trade and he’s spent time in Double-A every year since 2016. He has standard 40 FV, middle relief stuff, but he’s 28 and has a long injury history.

Marte has a four-pitch mix and generates plus-plus extension, which makes his mid-90s fastball play up. We have his 2018 breaking ball spin rate on The Board because this year’s are way, way down, likely due to injury.

Though his numbers were mostly the same as they were during a very impressive 2018 at Double-A San Antonio (.286/.355/.507, 16 HR, 16 SB), Tatis appeared to come of age during the offseason in the higher-stakes environment of the Dominican Winter League. Except for the sliver of our population who are both prospect hounds and savvy internet streamers, Tatis’ LIDOM brilliance was mostly obscured from American eyes, and may one day exist only as an oral history, the way John Lucas and Bernard King’s D.C. summer league cameos do for basketball fans today.

Nevertheless, major league scouts and teams are well-aware of Tatis’ all-world physical gifts, but the Padres knew first. Scouted and snatched away from the Camelback Ranch backfields by A.J. Preller himself, Tatis had barely worn a White Sox uniform before he was flipped to San Diego for James Shields during 2016 Extended spring. He wasn’t a highly-regarded amateur prospect when he signed the year before the trade, but he got better very quickly and essentially hasn’t stopped. He has Carlos Correa‘s frame, but is more agile and acrobatic a defender than Correa, and while there’s some risk that Tatis will eventually fill out beyond viability at shortstop, it probably won’t be for a while, and in the interim he’s going to be quite good there. He also has power that is rare for the big leagues generally, let alone for a middle infielder, and he has gotten to it in games thus far despite some issues with strikeouts. There’s a sizable gap between the low-end of Tatis’ possible outcomes (he moves to third quickly and always has contact issues) and the high end (he becomes a plus glove at short and has an offensive trajectory like George Springer‘s, whose contact issues suddenly went away) but right tail outcomes like this barely exist across baseball.

Strikeout-prone prospects often require some time to adjust and can take a little bit to perform, but we like Tatis’ chances to become a superstar, the crest of the Padres’ wave of young talent and a cornerstone of a burgeoning franchise.

Blisters and fingernail issues were a minor problem during Gore’s 2017 pro debut, and shelved him three separate times throughout 2018. His stuff was intact when he pitched, his fastball resting mostly in the 92-94 range and topping around 96 during most of his starts, though he has peaked at 98.

He is mechanically non-traditional, something Gore is able to maintain because he’s such a great athlete. As his front leg kicks up before he pedals toward the plate, so too does his glove and pitching hand, way up over his head, as if his mitt and knee are connected by an invisible wire. When Gore comes home, he drifts toward the first base side of the mound a bit, creating a unique angle on his pitches.

And those pitches are good. Though he doesn’t have great natural ability to spin the ball, Gore’s over-the-top arm slot enables him to get tumble on his curveball anyway, he has very advanced changeup feel, and his slider is firm. He’ll be able to locate what he wants, where he wants for as long as he retains his top-of-the-scale athleticism. He may be on a bit of an innings count this year just because he only threw 66 innings in 2018, but otherwise he’s quite advanced and could move through the minors fairly quickly.

Urias walked more than he struck out in every year of his pro career until 2018, when his K% rose all the way to 20%. Though he has always utilized a long, slow leg kick, Urias used to cut it down when he got into two-strike counts, something he didn’t do last year, probably in effort to hit for more power. He still managed to slash .296/.398/.447 as a 21-year-old in the hitter-friendly PCL and reached San Diego in September. Even with minor tweaks, Urias isn’t likely to hit for anything more than doubles power, but he should continue to be a plus bat who adds value on the bases and in the field à la Joey Wendle or Cesar Hernandez. Ian Kinsler‘s presence combined with Urias early-season struggles caused the Padres to demote Urias to Triple-A. He’s raking there and is still just the age of a college junior, so his initial numbers in the majors likely aren’t anything to worry about.

Amateur scouting heuristics would not have expected Paddack be here. He was a high school draftee who was 19 and a half on draft day (draft models like young players), and had no feel for spin (something modern pitching research has determined isn’t a malleable trait). The Marlins signed him for $400,000 as an eighth rounder and traded him to San Diego just over a year later in exchange for Fernando Rodney. The six starts Paddack made leading up to the deal were incredible. He had a 48:2 strikeout to walk ratio during that span, and he has continued to miss bats while filling up the strike zone since the Padres acquired him. He’d probably have been in the majors last year had Tommy John surgery not robbed him of more than a year of development (Paddack blew out in his third start as a Padres prospect).

His stuff was fine when he returned last year, with his fastball up to 95 in his first extended spring training start back from injury, and he topped out at 98 during the year. He’ll likely never have a great breaking ball, but as long as he locates it properly against righties, it will be enough. If there’s an 80 changeup in the minors, this is probably it, and plenty of starters with mediocre breaking balls have survived with heavy changeup use. Paddack’s fastball plays in the strike zone and he can make it sink if he wants to work down, so he shouldn’t run into any game theory-related issues due to a lack of repertoire depth because his stuff is just too good to hit when he locates it, even if you properly guess what’s coming. It’s rare for true aces to have such limited repertoires, and we think it’s more likely that Paddack develops into a 3-4 WAR starter than a demigod, the way his numbers might indicate.

Not long ago, Patiño was an undersized Colombian shortstop who would pitch once in a while. The Padres liked his athleticism enough to sign him and move him to the mound full-time. He’s added a full 10 ticks to his fastball over the last two and a half years, and now is not only one of the best on-mound athletes in the minors, but a hard worker and team leader with infectious charisma. Patiño’s velocity came as he got in the weight room and added about 25 pounds. He was so dominant during his first few pro starts in the DSL that the Padres quickly pushed him stateside for the remainder of 2017, then to the Midwest League at age 18 the following year.

Not only does Patiño have premium arm strength, he has natural feel for spin, and is a curious learner who quickly actualizes instruction on the mound. He has already begun to vary the cadence of his delivery to mess with hitters’ timing, and has mapped aspects of MacKenzie Gore’s delivery onto his own, just to see if it works for him. He’s still a little too confident with his breaking ball in the zone, but it’s hard not to expect an athlete with work habits like these (Patiño has already learned and is fluent in English) to get better at everything. You can go nuts projecting on his secondaries and command the same way scouts did with Hunter Greene when he was in high school, and Patiño’s breaking stuff is further along than Greene’s was at the same age. He likely won’t grow into more velo because the frame for that isn’t here, but he’s already got plenty of heat. Conservatively, Patiño has mid-rotation upside, but how the changeup and breaking ball command develop matter because that’s where there’s room for significant growth.

Acquired from Cleveland for Brad Hand, Mejia is one of the more entertaining hitters to watch in the minors, but he has a few flaws that need to be corrected for him to reach his substantial ceiling, and possibly for him to profile at all. He has a very aggressive approach and a funky, high-effort swing from both sides of the plate, and they’re only sustainable because Mejia has elite hand-eye coordination and bat control. His swing-happy approach could limit his on-base ability quite a bit, and possibly his power output, too, which would be less of a problem if Mejia could definitely stick as a catcher; he has an elite arm but is a below-average receiver currently.

Before they traded him, Cleveland tried Mejia at third base and the outfield corners. San Diego seems inclined to just let him catch, but if Wil Myers’ defensive movement is any indication, they’re open to trying new things. There are probably certain types of pitchers that Mejia can catch without much issue, and it seems logical to pair him and Austin Hedges in a way that hides Mejia’s issues while he can work on them and still gets reps. If he does have to move to, say, right field, the lack of plate discipline becomes an issue because the offensive bar out there is much higher. The scouting report reads much like Jorge Alfaro’s, except Mejia is a switch-hitter with better natural bat control.

Morejon made three trips to the Injured List in 2018 and he’s had a few other issues that have caused the Padres to throttle down his activity during the spring and fall. He has plus velocity, but loses a tick of perceived velo due to lack of extension, and his arm angle and spin direction are more conducive of sink/run that bat-missing rise. He will flash a plus changeup, and that pitch will likely be his best at maturity. The breaking stuff is closer to average. He was mechanically inconsistent this spring and has once again been placed on the IL with shoulder/back issues. There are days when Morejon’s stuff and style of pitching resembles Jesus Luzardo’s, but the injury stuff might force a bullpen move.

Allen is a better athlete than one would likely surmise if they were just looking at him in the uniform. His fast-paced delivery is hard for hitters with a big leg kick to properly time the first time through the order, and once they’ve gotten a feel for his fastball, Allen pulls the string on his sinking, plus changeup. His strike-throwing has improved from slightly below-average to slightly above over the last 18 months or so, and Allen now comfortably projects as a No. 4 starter.

Acquired from Boston for Drew Pomeranz in July 2016, Espinoza has only thrown 32 innings of affiliated ball for the Padres since the deal. Espinoza was 94-97 and flashed a plus changeup and curveball during his final spring training start of 2017. Between that outing and his first regular season start for Hi-A Lake Elsinore, he felt discomfort in his elbow and was shut down. After several weeks of rest and rehab, it was decided that he needed Tommy John surgery, which he had early in August. The timing wasn’t great, and Espinoza missed all of 2018 working back from surgery, then re-tore his elbow during the spring of 2019 and needed a second TJ. He has been spotted in a cast on the Peoria backfields. Espinoza has front-end stuff but even if it returns, he’ll have missed three years of reps that he desperately needed to polish his below-average control, increasing the likelihood that he’s a reliever or backend starter.

Ornelas was the most polished of the teenage prospects the Padres pushed to the Midwest League last year, and while his raw numbers were only impressive if viewed with his age in mind, his peripherals (11% walk rate, 19% strikeout rate) were marvelous. Quite soft-bodied as an amateur, Ornelas has reshaped his physique and is now a svelte 6-foot-3 and an average runner underway, and it plays a little better than that on the bases because he is a max-effort player. Most amateur scouts had him projected to first base, but he now has a chance to not just stick in a corner outfield spot, but perhaps be above-average there.

Really what Ornelas is best at is hitting. He has terrific timing and feel for contact, as well as a growing idea of which pitches to attack to hit for power. His ground ball rate was down last year and while there’s still room for growth in this area, the fact that Ornelas has already shown movement here is a sign more will come. Unless the hit and power tools grow beyond what we expect, it’s unlikely that Ornelas becomes a star, but we consider him a strong bet to be an everyday big leaguer, and his makeup and polish make him an unusually high-probability bet in our estimation.

Naylor stood out as an underclassman on the Canadian Junior national teams that travel to Florida and Arizona each spring and fall, and was also a mainstay on the showcase circuit. It’s because of a sterling performance in his draft spring facing professional pitchers in spring training stadiums that clubs became confident he had a 50 or better bat to go with his easy plus raw power; the Marlins surprised many by taking him in the middle of the first round. His speed, defense, position, and thick frame have always been below average, but luckily Naylor’s bat has carried him this far and it appears it will carry him to a big league career of some consequence.

Miami traded Naylor to San Diego in the controversial Colin Rea deal, soon after also trading Chris Paddack to the Padres in a separate transaction. Naylor was involved in a bizarre accidental stabbing with teammate Stone Garrett just before the trade. San Diego has Eric Hosmer in his way, so you’d need to see a trade or the universal DH for Naylor to have a path to playing with his left field defense grading well below average. The MLB free agent market isn’t valuing Naylor-type players highly, but his first three seasons would interest any club with an opening for him.

Potts keeps trickling down the defensive spectrum — he was pretty good defensive shortstop in high school but is a bigger-bodied third baseman now, and may have to move to an outfield corner eventually — but with that weight has come substantial raw power, and he now has two consecutive 20-homer seasons on his resume. In the event that he does have to move off of third base, Potts’ lack of plate discipline makes his profile very risky, though he seemed to take a step forward in that regard last year. He turned 20 during his Arizona Fall League stint and should spend all year at Double-A. His low-end outcome is in the Juan Francisco/Matt Davidson realm, while a middle of the road projection is that of a big power/low on-base corner outfielder, a skillset Padres fans are familiar with because that’s what Hunter Renfroe is. But if Potts stays at third and continues to refine his approach, he could be an above-average everyday player.

After he shook off some initial rust in 2017, Baez’s stuff and strike-throwing quickly flourished, enabling him to post a 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio at Low-A Fort Wayne. His fastball was in the 94-97 range, and his changeup was consistently plus or better all summer. A back issue put Baez behind during 2018 spring training, and while the Padres sent him to Hi-A in late-April, his stuff and command were just not as good as they were the year before. Instead of 94-97, Baez’s fastball was more 92-95, and his walk rate tripled. We’re in wait-and-see mode with Baez now. He had a mid-rotation look in 2017, but fourth starter stuff and fringe command last year. After sitting 92-95 early in the spring, Baez was shut down with shoulder inflammation. In early May, he was again 93-95 with his trademark changeup.

A staple on the travel ball circuit for several years, Edwards has a long track record of performance against high-level pitching and his elite speed makes it likely that he plays a premium defensive position in pro ball, and plays it well. He faces questions about his size, and power doesn’t project to be a real part of what he ends up doing. Instead, Edwards is a high-effort offensive catalyst who knifes at defenses with line drives and well-placed bunts. He is twitchy, strong, has great feel for the strike zone, he’s short to the ball and tough to strike out, and has feel for all-fields contact. He has a traditional leadoff hitter’s skillset from a tools/stylistic standpoint, but a modern leadoff man’s approach and on base ability. Capable of playing a passable shortstop, Edwards is most likely to end up as an above-average defender at second, and his elite speed could make him a valuable defender in center field if needed.

DSL and AZL stats are almost meaningless but Marcano’s 60:25 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 2017 and ’18 combined is so exceptional that it almost certainly says something about his plate discipline. That notion is supported by in-person looks at Marcano, who not only has good feel for the strike zone, but also has the hand-eye coordination and bat control to spoil tough pitches, and barrel mistakes. He is very slight of build, so much so that there’s skepticism regarding his power projection that isn’t there for other players of similar age, skill, and level (like Brayan Rocchio with Cleveland), who have a better chance of developing pop.

Excellent at both middle infield spots, Marcano has a shot to be a plus glove at short or second at peak. Even without power, a defensive wizard with high-end feel for contact who runs well is at least a good utility guy. If some pop comes, even if it’s just a little, then there’s everyday upside here.

If your team of attractive thieves needs a grease man for The Big Heist, then consider Rosario, who is an acrobatic, top-of-the-scale athlete who has on-job robbery experience. A plus runner, Rosario’s speed and athleticism help hide some of the circuitous routes he takes to fly balls, and he has the physical talent to be a plus defender in center field as he refines those. He tracks pitches well, walks a lot, and has terrific bat control, which leads to low-lying, all-fields contact. He’s a potential leadoff hitter with a plus glove in center, a potential first-division regular. Some clubs think he’ll eventually hit for power, but that would require a drastically different approach/style of hitting than Rosario currently employs, and there are a host of other things to refine before the Padres tweak a thing Rosario currently does pretty well. He’ll be a 19-year-old at Hi-A all season, and could be a top 100 prospect by mid-summer.

The Padres seemed to have the top tier of prep pitching in their mix at pick No. 7 during last year’s draft. Though Weathers wasn’t universally considered to be part of that contingent, it seemed San Diego thought he was. We believed the gap between pick seven and where Weathers would otherwise have been picked was sizable enough that San Diego might be able to cut a deal, but instead Weathers signed for slot, about $5.2 million. He is the son of former big league reliever David Weathers, and has been a known prospect of interest since his sophomore year of high school.

Though he’s not built like most prep prospects, Weathers is remarkably athletic and was a dynamite high school basketball player. His stuff waxed and waned during his senior spring, but when it was good, he had arguably the best present three-pitch mix, and pitch usage, in the 2018 prep pitching class. He’s a short-strider, so the fastball is going to play down a bit due to poor extension, but otherwise he projects as a mid-rotation arm due to the quality of his secondaries, and, potentially, a quick-moving one. After 24 strong innings at Low-A to start the year, Weathers was shut down with a dead arm.

The Alfonso Soriano comps to Ruiz are actually quite apt. Like Soriano, Ruiz has pole-to-pole power and feel for striking the ball in the air to all fields, he is similarly built, and he shares some mechanical traits with Soriano, though not the signature, one-handed finish. He’s also not a good defensive infielder, and is so mistake-prone that there’s a real possibility that Ruiz eventually moves to the outfield. He runs well enough to give center field a go if that becomes the case, but such a move is probably premature until or unless Ruiz’s offensive performance forces a change so his glove can be ready when the bat is.

The Padres acquired Ruiz from Kansas City in a 2017 six-player swap (Strahm, Wood, Ruiz for Cahill, Maurer, Buchter) just 21 games into his stateside pro debut. Then they skipped him over advanced rookie ball and sent him to Low-A the following spring. The Midwest League is tough on hitters and Ruiz’s line was, in context, pretty good. His aggressive approach may start to be exploited at Hi-A, but once Ruiz gets his footing he could break out statistically.

Some teams moved off of Lawson when he had some injury issues as a high school senior, but the Padres found themselves flush with pool money after taking underslot prospects late in the first round (Hudson Potts and Eric Lauer), which enabled them to give Lawson $1.9 million in the second round, $1 million above slot. He has yet to spend any time on the IL as a pro.

Lawson’s velocity has climbed and his breaking ball, which was in the 68-72 mph range in high school, now has more power to it and rests in the mid-70s. He found a better changeup in 2018, quelling most concerns about him eventually winding up in the bullpen. His delivery isn’t as fluid as it was in high school, but while Lawson doesn’t have pinpoint, touch-and-feel command, his fastball lives in the zone and he throws enough strikes to start. He’s enduring a walk uptick at Double-A early in 2019 but his rate of strikes (63%) is the same as last year, so the walk totals are probably going to regress to Lawson’s career mean. He projects as a No. 4/5 starter, or a valuable reliever if he’s pushed to the bullpen by the depth of talent on the rest of San Diego’s staff.

Allen has faced questions about his long-term defensive home dating back to college, and those continued through last year after he struggled in front of pro scouts during the Arizona Fall League. The AFL is not a great place to evaluate catching, because guys are tired and forced to quickly learn an entirely new staff of pitchers, but independent of that qualifier, lots of teams simply don’t think Allen can play back there due a lack of arm strength and/or receiving ability. Others think Allen is serviceable, and would gladly give up what he lacks on defense for what he’d provide at the catching position on offense: huge power, rare for the position.

Allen elevates the ball with authority and has been doing so since college. He slugged .728 as a junior (while facing questions about competition quality in addition to the defensive stuff) and he has 50 or more extra base hits in each of the last two seasons. It’s All-Star offensive ability for a catcher, it’s just that most of the industry doesn’t like him at the position. Perhaps what San Diego has done with Francisco Mejia (let him catch pitchers he can handle) will serve as precedent for what they may try with Allen, whose issues are admittedly different than Mejia’s. They could let Allen catch pitchers who are adept at holding runners on their own, give him a start at first now and then, and let him take high-leverage at-bats off the bench against righties the rest of the time. That’s a valuable role player, one who’s arguably ready for prime time right now.

Arias is a flashy defensive shortstop who has already grown into sizable power for a sinewy 19-year-old. His hands are very powerful, explosive, and work in a tight, lift-friendly loop much like Carter Kieboom’s, but Arias doesn’t track pitches well, and makes poor choices about what he’s swinging at. He needs to refine his approach so more of that power plays in games, because he’ll likely always have a bit of a whiff problem due to his swing being so geared for power. There’s big ceiling here because of the pop and defensive profile, but the approach might make him a frustrating and streaky Tim Anderson-type of player.

Campusano was a bad-bodied, defense-first catcher on the summer showcase circuit, but then he completely remade his body for his senior spring. He showed above-average power, some bat control, and much improved agility behind the plate, leading to him going 39th overall in 2017. He didn’t catch much velocity in high school and struggled receiving pro arms at first. There’s still some work to be done on that end, but Campusano has gotten better on defense, he has plus raw power, plus arm strength, and some feel to hit. He’s a potential regular on tools, but the attrition rate of teenage catching prospects is pretty scary.

Margevicius got on the national scouting radar when he had a strong performance at Georgia early during his draft spring, during which he hit 95 mph. He was scouted the rest of the spring but often sat 88-91 and hit 93 mph, working with a solid average changeup as his out-pitch, and a fringy breaking ball that came and went with his arm speed, stuff befitting a seventh round selection.

Margevicius changed a bit in pro ball, switching from a curveball to slider, and making it his primary off-speed pitch. His performance, despite below average velocity, was excellent thereafter and he surprised many when he went from Hi-A to the big leagues to start 2019. He’s probably a back-end starter, a No. 4/5 at best, but the finished product came together much quicker than anyone expected and some of it happened with pitch development and adjustment, evidence Margevicius will be able to continue making relevant tweaks as it becomes pertinent.

Muñoz’s arm action evokes Joel Zumaya, Billy Wagner, and Craig Kimbrel. His limb whips around at such speed and with such flexibility that it almost skips right past enthralling and strikes one as grotesque. But the heat that emanates from him right arm is among the best in the minors. He’ll routinely sit 97-99 and has touched as high as 103 (the slo-mo pitch in the linked video was 100 mph). It’s a blistering, elite pitch that had upper-level hitters taking flaccid, defeated swings this spring, and has helped Muñoz strike out two hitters per inning early on in 2019.

He has yet to harness the fastball and throw consistent strikes (he’s walking a batter per inning, too) and his breaking ball quality is also inconsistent. If both of those issues improve, Muñoz will be an elite relief option. If one of them does, he’s probably still a high-leverage arm, just one who makes you sweat after surrendering a couple of walks. If neither do, then Muñoz will go the way of some other recent fastball-only prospects like this, such as Thyago Vieira and Mauricio Cabrera.

Up to 94 as a high school underclassman, Thompson was tracking like a traditional first round Texas high school arm until he had Tommy John and missed all but one game during his senior year. He was a wild card on draft day, but ended up going in the third round, and signing for early second round money ($1.7 million). During his first pro summer, Thompson’s fastball velocity climbed from the 88-91 range up to the 92-94 area. Then shoulder and biceps issues plagued his first two full pro seasons, and his stuff was down in 2018.

This spring, he was throwing harder than ever, sitting 94-97 at times, and showing better breaking stuff than he had previously. He’s struggling to harness the new stuff, but he hasn’t really pitched all that much due to all those injuries, and that he has a chance for four above-average pitches gives him more upside than a lot of the closer, safer prospects on this list. He could have a breakout summer, or it could be very bumpy.

Reed was a lightly-scouted multi-sport high school athlete in Maryland who also played hockey before he arrived at the University of Florida. Soon after he stepped on campus, scouts saw and become enamored with the enormous athletic potential he had. He still hasn’t quite tapped into it, at least on offense. Reed has 70 speed and defensive ability in center field, along with a 60 arm and average raw power. As a 6-foot-4, 210 pound athletic specimen, he’ll probably play forever. There’s some bat control and feel for oppo gap contact here, but Reed’s approach and feel for hitting is lacking, holding back his everyday potential. Most scouts project him as a good fourth outfielder in the Jake Marisnick mold.

Quantrill was an early 2016 draft 1-1 candidate (mid-90s, plus changeup) before he tore his UCL as a sophomore and missed his entire junior year to rehab. His velocity and feel for locating his fastball both regressed in 2018, but they seem to have rebounded this spring. Quantrill has been up to 96, sitting 93-94 early in starts before settling into the low-90s later. It’s a two-seamer, one that probably pairs best with his changeup, Quantrill’s best chance of missing bats. He now has two fringe breaking balls, which is a player dev miracle considering there was a stretch when it was unclear if Quantrill would ever have just one. He profiles as a sinker/changeup backend starter.

Avila’s 2017 campaign — 170 strikeouts, 33 walks, 129 innings — had us wondering if we were missing something and he was an obvious top-100 arm. He carved up the lower levels by making heavy use of two good secondary pitches, a curveball and changeup. He came back down to earth in 2018, struggling to locate his low-90s fastball in the zone. He sits 90-94, and will touch 96. The long-term role may ultimately be in the bullpen, especially since three-pitch relievers may become more necessary due to forthcoming rule changes. He’ll likely be up and down this year, making spot starts when needed.