The Mariners knew they couldn’t sit on their hands if they wanted to build on the upstart season they had last year, and signing the reigning American League Cy Young winner to lead their rotation is a great way to stay busy. Ray amped up his velocity to a career-best 94.8 mph and tried a new attack approach by trusting his stuff. He might not post another sub-3.00 ERA if his 1.5 HR/9 doesn’t come down, but there is a lot of wiggle room for him to regress and still be the team’s ace.

Gonzales and Flexen are lefty-righty finesse arms who outperformed their base skills in 2021. Gonzales has leveraged plus command of his four-pitch arsenal into above-average work since arriving in Seattle. He has a 3.97 ERA and 4.13 FIP in 619.1 innings. He has slowly shifted into a fly ball pitcher over the last couple seasons; hopefully he can pull the 1.8 HR/9 from last year back toward his career mark of 1.2. Flexen honed his control in Korea and everything held up well upon returning to MLB. If he could just find a bit more swing-and-miss, there would be more stability to his production; as-is, he is heavily dependent on his batted balls being turned into outs at a high clip. They’ll both likely meander back to the mid-4.00s or higher barring outlier performances in BABIP and/or LOB rates.

Don’t get fooled by the 4.68 ERA, Gilbert had an excellent rookie season, and there is plenty to build on, as the 25-year-old righty had a 3.87 SIERA, 20% K-BB rate, and 1.17 WHIP in 119.1 innings. He seemed to hit a wall in mid-August, when a three-start run saw him allow 19 earned runs in 12.2 innings, but he rebounded in September and closed with a 2.70 ERA in his final six starts. He could shave a full run off his 2021 ERA and be a great No. 2 behind Ray.

A lot of premium prospects are breaking camp this year, including Seattle’s own Julio Rodríguez, who ranked fourth on our Top 100. Guys like Brash might get a bit lost in the bevy of top names, but don’t sleep on the 24-year-old righty. He is making the leap directly from Double-A after putting together a 2.31 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 97.3 innings with an incredible 35% strikeout rate. Kirby is an even better prospect (No. 28 in the Top 100) and had a similarly excellent two-level season spent at High- and Double-A with a 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 29% K rate in 67.2 innings. Brash outperformed Kirby in spring, earning him the nod, but Kirby will no doubt be a candidate to come up during the season.

Let me put my bias on the table: I’m a diehard Tigers fan. And while that often makes me a harsher critic than casual observers because I follow them so closely, I think Detroit nailed this offseason. The team kicked off a string of high impact moves by adding Tucker Barnhart, a premium framer who can help guide their young arms, then signed Rodriguez and Javier Báez ahead of the lockout. Rodriguez comes bearing gifts as a veteran presence who can take some pressure off Mize, Skubal, and Manning, all of whom will be instrumental in determining the success of this rebuild. At worst, E-Rod should get back to the high-3.00s ERA we regularly saw prior to 2021; at best, the change of venue and team will drive a new career low in ERA, something like his SIERA (3.65) or FIP (3.32) from last year.

Manning (No. 12), Skubal (No. 22), and Mize (No. 30) all graduated as top 30 prospects while helping to prove the old adage that prospect growth isn’t linear. Mize leaned on a control-focused profile to get through 30 starts with a capable 3.71 ERA/1.14 WHIP combo. Skubal, meanwhile, showed flashes of excellence, but an ugly 2.1 HR/9 limited him to a 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Manning was the top rated prospect of the bunch, but struggled with command all year and never found his footing during 85.1 major league innings that saw him post a 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. All three are 25 or younger and still boast tremendous ceilings, which could make Detroit’s rotation one of the better ones in baseball as soon as this season.

Peralta outran a hideous 5.27 SIERA last year and somehow managed a 3.07 ERA in 93.2 innings, but the Tigers knew they couldn’t rely on him repeating that, so they signed Pineda, who offers useful depth. Alexander’s transition to the rotation went well, as he managed 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 15 starts last year, though he profiles as a backend guy even at peak. Wentz and Alex Faedo still have some prospect sheen, as both enter their age-24 season.

It looked like the Reds were going to do a full teardown, but neither Mahle nor Castillo has been traded, though both likely could’ve used the venue change. Well, I am certain Mahle could have based on his 5.09 home ERA. This one isn’t complicated. A 2.1 HR/9 at home and a 0.8 on the road easily explains the substantial split. The question is whether he can maintain his star-level performance on the road as seen in 2021 (2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).

Castillo might have been involved in trade talks, but a shoulder issue that will sideline him to start the season no doubt diminished his potential value. I wonder if he’d see the greatest benefit if he were traded to a warm weather team. Among the 51 pitchers with at least 400 batters faced in sub-60 degree weather since 2018, Castillo’s 5.37 ERA is the second highest behind Derek Holland’s 5.57 mark. (As someone who also hates cold weather, I don’t hold those ERAs against them; I’ll take 80-plus year-round!) The difference in fastball performance for Castillo in his cold vs. warm weather splits suggests this isn’t just about having chilly arms. His walk rate with the heater jumps five points to 15%, the home run rate doubles to 6%, and his strikeout rate dips four points to 11%.

The Minor acquisition makes zero sense in light of waiving Wade Miley, who makes the exact same amount ($10 million). But sure, bring in the guy with a 1.4 HR/9 since 2018 instead of just keeping the guy who had a 3.37 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 163 innings with the team last year. That ERA likely would’ve regressed given the WHIP, but as you will see in the Cubs rundown, Miley has a better projection than Minor. Minor has joined Castillo in already battling through shoulder issues in spring, too.

Greene and Lodolo have made the team out of camp. The two top prospects (Greene was 32nd overall, Lodolo 52nd) could make the Reds look accidentally competent if they both prove ready to be major league contributors. Greene was a two-way guy drafted second overall in 2017, but he gave up hitting after Tommy John surgery in 2019. A triple-digit fastball and filthy slider will carry him as he develops his changeup; he’s being called up after 179 minor league innings. Lodolo has just 69 pro innings under his belt, though the 24-year-old lefty also threw nearly 260 college frames. The team is willing to trust his sinker-slider combo to sustain him in the majors while he, too, hones his changeup.

Dunn and Williamson came over in the Jesse Winker deal. Dunn will miss the first couple months of the season with a shoulder strain and even upon his return, he has heavy relief risk and could wind up in the bullpen as early as this year. Williamson, who ranked 61st on the preseason Top 100, is the prize of the trade, though he likely won’t be a candidate for a call-up until the summer. Gutierrez showed glimpses in his 114-inning debut, but likely projects to a No. 4/5 at most.

I wanted to make a joke about how Quantrill, Plesac, and Civale are essentially the same guy – finesse innings-eaters, a profile the Guardians have shown they can maximize – but the projections beat me to the punch. Last season, they also showed the range of outcomes this profile can deliver, with Quantrill posting a 2.89 ERA, Civale at 3.84, and Plesac at 4.67. Defensive support and home run suppression are their paths to sub-4.00 ERAs, which makes it hard to project since so much of it is out of their hands.

Bieber still has ace upside when healthy. He was excellent in 96.2 innings last year, but a right shoulder issue ate up half the year. McKenzie might be the most talented prospect Cleveland has had since becoming a pitching factory (dating back to the emergence of Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco). The Guardians have done so well maximizing mid-tier prospects, but McKenzie was a multi-year Top 100 prospect, graduating at No. 58 last year. Health has been the biggest issue for the wiry righty, who stands at 6-foot-5, 165 pounds.

McKenzie flashed premium upside in an 11-start last summer, posting a 2.96 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 23% K-BB rate over 67 innings. The key was trusting his stuff in the zone. During his first 11 outings, he had an ugly 21% walk rate as he tried to be too fine with his pitches. After taking more of a here-it-is-hit-it approach, his walk rate shrank to just 4% during that electric run, with no corresponding dip in strikeouts (27%). This was just his second pro season eclipsing 100 innings (141.1), so it remains an open question if he can withstand the grind of 30-plus starts.

There was some sleeper intrigue for Morris after a huge 2021 (1.62 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 61 IP across the complex, Double- and Triple-A), but it’s temporarily on hold after a shoulder injury landed him on the 60-day IL in spring training. The Guardians have two left-handed Logan Allens, which isn’t confusing at all! The one not listed was drafted in 2020 and debuted with a great two-level season at High- and Double-A, posting a 27% K-BB rate in 111.1 innings. It’s not out of the question that he makes the majors in 2022, especially if he keeps up that kind of work in the high minors this year.

Cleveland’s consistent success developing pitching has kept the likes of Morgan and Hentges on my radar, as both have some elements that could make them viable back of the rotation starters.

After posting the sixth highest starter ERA in baseball in 2021 — and with their ace, Kenta Maeda, shelved all year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery — the Twins knew they had to improve the rotation. If Archer, their most recent signing, finds some health, they have a quality quintet who can support their deep lineup.

The move from Cincinnati to Minnesota should help Gray, as he goes from one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game to a neutral one. He had a 4.89 ERA in 14 home starts last year due in large part to a 1.7 HR/9. Ryan and Ober look like control artists who can miss plenty of bats but will need to reign in the home runs to deliver the breakout seasons many see for them. Ryan’s ultra-deceptive fastball has confounded both the opposition and analysts, as he managed a 37% strikeout rate in the minors despite not having the premium velocity we see across much of the league. Ober was nearly untouchable throughout the minors (2.41 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), but ran into a home run issue during his major league debut. He allowed two-plus long balls in five of his 20 starts, resulting in a 4.19 ERA in 92.1 innings, this after allowing just 0.5 HR/9 in the minors. It would be shocking to see him post that mark in the majors, but even just getting to something in the 1.3-1.5 range could bring his ERA under 4.00.

Speaking of home run issues, Bundy joins the team in hopes of improving upon a disastrous 2021. He posted a 0.7 HR/9 in the shortened 2020 season and it seemed like the mercurial righty had figured some things out, but he immediately regressed back to a 2.0 HR/9 last year, which is much more in line with his 1.6 career mark. He will go as far as his home run suppression will take him. Winder is a pop-up prospect who checks in at No. 88 on our Top 100 after flashing premium skills (24% K-BB) in 72 innings at Double- and Triple-A. His season was cut short by shoulder trouble that shelved him in July. The skills are there and the 25-year-old righty could be a key arm for the Twins if he proves to be healthy.

Greinke back to the Royals is a fun story. Not only does the 38-year-old still have something in the tank after a 4.16 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last year, but the Royals are also an interesting upstart. They will likely go as far as the rotation takes them. Keller is likely capped as a mid-4.00s ERA innings-eater and Greinke will live in his 2020-21 range (4.12 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), leaving the growth to Hernández, Singer, and Bubic.

Hernández has premium heat and swing-and-miss breaking pitches that make him an appealing breakout candidate, though his ability to command it can be spotty. He has to show he can miss bats as a starter, too. His strikeout rate went from 31% in 27.1 relief innings to just 16% in 58.1 starter innings. This kind of arm could be a tweak or two from big things, but at age-25 the growth could take some time.

Singer and Bubic acquitted themselves well in their first full seasons last year. A .350 BABIP limited Singer to just a 4.91 ERA, but his 4.30 SIERA wasn’t bad. The development of a third pitch could take him to another level. He can reach a sub-4.00 ERA season as-is, especially if the defense supports the sinkerballer. Bubic has three pitches, but spotty command of all three and inconsistency with the changeup has fueled a home run issue against righties and nearly a 100-point platoon split. He will look to build on a strong finish, as the fastball and changeup clicked to deliver a 2.20 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 32.2 innings during September/October.

Lynch and Kowar labored through rough debuts, but still hold substantial upside. Lynch missed a key development year in 2020, and instead had to leap from High-A in 2019 to Triple-A last year. He proved far too hittable (11.7 H/9, 1.6 HR/9) despite some decent core skills (17% K-BB). If he gets back on track during a second tour of Triple-A, he could make a leap this year. Fastball command will be the key. Kowar hasn’t reached the same prospect heights as Lynch (a two-time Top 100 entrant), but the former first rounder was overpowering in Triple-A. He had a 34% K rate and 14% swinging strike rate in 80.2 innings there before a rude awakening in the majors where everything went wrong, as his 40 command was on full display. He can be a capable No. 4/5 with a slight command improvement and more of a mid-rotation arm if he jumps to a 50+ command.

Márquez had one of the more confounding seasons for a Rockies starter in recent memory, posting a 3.67 ERA/1.18 WHIP combo at home and a 5.38 ERA/1.40 WHIP on the road. Aside from driving fantasy managers up the wall, it was tough to figure how he was legitimately good at home but quite rough outside of Coors. The .265 home/.338 road BABIP was no doubt a substantial factor, but even achieving those two numbers is bizarre. While it is fun to dream about what Márquez could be on another team, it is completely understandable why the Rockies have zero interest in trading him and his team-friendly deal, which still has three years on it.

Senzatela, Freeland, and Gomber all have FIPs under 5.00, but their collective penchant for allowing contact coupled with their home park makes it tough to project their ERAs to match. Despite the recent history that says they can pull it off, it makes sense that the models would play things more cautiously. Freeland in particular seems to have cracked the code to some degree, even as a low-strikeout arm. He has a career 4.20 ERA in 654 innings, including a 4.44 mark in 326.3 home innings.

Lambert (ranked 44th overall in 2015) and Rolison (No. 22 in 2018) are former early picks who are still young enough to turn into useful arms, though age (25 and 24, respectively) and pedigree are really the only aspects working in their favor, as their numbers have left plenty to be desired. There is no calvary coming, either, as just one of the Rockies top 11 prospects from this year’s list is a pitcher.

With team ace Flaherty already shelved to start the season, the Cards are fully embracing the groundball-heavy approach. Wainwright showed the best of what his defense can do when grounders are converted to outs (3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), though the projections are rightly unsure if he can repeat the feat at age-40. Matz has seen his BABIP under .300 just once in his career, so it would make sense if he and his agent scouted infield defenses when deciding where to sign. He has a decent 22% K rate for his career while maintaining a 1.4 GB/FB rate.

Hudson and Mikolas are more extreme than Waino and Matz, as they both have career strikeout rates of 18% while generating a ton of grounders. Hudson’s 2.6 GB/FB rate is third to just Framber Valdez‘s (4.0!) and Logan Webb’s (2.8) among starters with at least 240 innings since 2018, which is a major reason why he has a 3.14 ERA despite an ugly 4.96 SIERA. If he can bring that walk rate under 10%, the WHIP will land in the low-1.20s.

We have seen Mikolas be great. He returned to the states in 2018 and posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 200.2 innings. But his 3.93 SIERA made it clear that it was a career year, and his 4.17 ERA in 228.2 innings since says it was wise to follow those ERA indicators. If two of these four substantially beat their projections and the Cardinals get at least the 121 projected innings from Flaherty, the Red Birds could find themselves back in the playoffs without needing a late-season 17-game win streak to get there.

Liberatore is the obvious X-factor, as the No. 66 overall prospect will be waiting his turn after a strong Triple-A season last year. Oviedo, meanwhile, is my off-the-radar X-factor. He has budding swing-and-miss stuff and adheres to the team’s theme of keeping the ball down (1.5 GB/FB), but he needs a major step forward in terms of his command to unlock the best of his talent.

Montas is carrying this ranking and could be on another team by the time this piece is posted, if not shortly thereafter; his 3.1 WAR accounts for 37% of the projected total in just 20% of the innings. Sean Manaea was dealt this past weekend, prompting many to believe Montas should start packing his bags, though there isn’t as much urgency to trading the 29-year-old righty, as he doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2023 season while Manaea is in his final team-control year.

Irvin is hoping to build on a breakout 2021 campaign by way of a swing-and-miss offering or two. He has added a cutter and worked on different grips for his slider, as he surely realizes his 16% K rate won’t cut it and likely can’t sustain another 4.24 ERA over a full season. If these changes do bear fruit, he could be the latest Oakland starter traded for prospects.

Kaprielian was drafted in the first round all the way back in 2015 and has battled injuries throughout his long road to the majors. He impressed upon his arrival, with a 4.07 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 119.1 innings, but has once again been felled by injury; a shoulder issue will delay the start of his 2022 season. Jefferies is a quality prospect who debuted last year, though he too has fallen prey to poor health, with just 176.1 minor league innings since being drafted in 2016. His big league debut was cut short by a late-September flexor strain, this after not starting his season until late-May due to a biceps issue.

Honeywell was acquired in the offseason but will fit right in as a once-heralded prospect in desperate need of sustained health to get his career back on track. It’s hard not to root for the 27-year-old righty to find just a modicum of health so he can stay on the field and see where his talent takes him. His search will continue from the sidelines, as he suffered a olecranon stress reaction in late March and has been shut down indefinitely; he has had four surgeries on his elbow.

Oller, Logue, and Martinez came via the Bassitt, Chapman, and Manaea trades, respectively, and should all garner major league innings in 2022. They are all young enough to develop beyond their current expectations, though they all carry a 40 Future Value, suggesting they have limited upside.

The infield defense will be tested on a nightly basis in Wrigley, as just one of the Cubs’ expected starters projects for a strikeout rate north of 20%, with their best swing-and-miss arm – Alzolay – sidelined with a severe shoulder strain.

Stroman’s groundball-focused approach has paid dividends throughout his career, leading many to hope the early rumors of him signing with the Cardinals would prove true just to see what that Gold Glove-studded defense could do with his career 57% groundball rate. Hendricks doesn’t generate nearly as many grounders but felt the vagaries of a contact-heavy approach last year with a career-worst 4.77 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His already-low strikeout rate sank further, dipping to just 17% and exposing the painfully thin margins he has been living on for years now.

Chicago’s veteran-laden staff will ask a pair of mid-30s lefties to deliver around 250 innings. Miley was a waiver pickup from the Reds and while elbow inflammation will sideline him to start the season, he shouldn’t struggle too much to earn his $10 million dollar paycheck. He has been worth 4.9 WAR in the last two full seasons (he was limited to just 14.1 IP in the shortened 2020). Smyly’s health has proven a bit more fickle, with the southpaw averaging just 120 IP/season in 2019 and ’21 after missing all of ’16 and ’17. He has shown a consistent ability to miss bats (24% K, 12% SwStr in 2019-21), but a 2.1 HR/9 has been a big reason for the split between his 5.12 ERA and 4.43 SIERA.

Mills is a lesser version of 2021 Hendricks and has virtually no chance to generate an ERA under 4.50 without a killer defensive performance behind him. He allowed a .324 BABIP last season, a mark that surged his hit rate to 10.4 per nine en route to a 5.07 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 119 innings. Usually command-and-control groundballers at least keep the ball in the park, but Mills has been at a 1.4 HR/9 since 2019. Steele’s 24% K rate was built on his relief work (20% as SP; 38% as RP), and with inconsistent command on all of his four offerings, it is likely to remain that way.

And you thought the “John Means Business” meme was a tired bit of word play. Means showed just how serious he is by singlehandedly moving the left field wall back 26 feet and stretching it seven. Ok fine, he doesn’t moonlight as a contractor, but when you realize 86% of his 66 career homers (1.7 HR/9) have been hit by righties, it doesn’t seem out of line to think he had a hand in the park changes! That he has a career 3.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP despite the long-ball flaw speaks to how good he is and how even a small improvement could yield a low-3.00s ERA.

Wells entered the offseason as a candidate to close out games for the O’s only to shift back to the rotation as spring training started. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, grinded through the pandemic in ’20, and found himself in Baltimore via the Rule 5 draft, meaning he had to stay in the majors if the Orioles wanted to keep him. They thought it best to let him relieve and he excelled in 57 innings with a 24% K-BB rate and 0.91 WHIP. He could prove to be a real find for the O’s.

From there, well, it’s not great. Despite knowing how little stock we can put in 25.2 innings, I still found some positives in Akin’s 2020 debut because his standout strikeout stuff (30% K, 14% SwStr) was in line with his minor league track record. So naturally, he was a below-average strikeout arm in 95 innings last year (19% K, 10% SwStr). Barring an unexpected skill change, it is hard to generate any tangible excitement about Zimmermann, Lowther, Kremer, or Bradish. They will be asked to eat up innings and hold down the fort while Baltimore’s prospects develop.

Hall (No. 27) and Grayson Rodriguez (No. 3) made the Top 100 and should be major contributors to the next great Orioles team, but the 2022 dividends could be scant as Rodriguez isn’t even projected to debut this year. That could just be a cautious outlook, though, as the 22-year-old dominated Double-A for 18 starts and likely won’t need the entire season at Triple-A before getting the call. Hall is just a year older but has also peaked at Double-A, with only seven starts there thus far. A stress reaction in his elbow limited him to just 31.2 innings last year and he has yet to rack up 100-plus innings in a single season.

Texas doled out big bucks to remake their lineup while also adding a new No. 1 to their rotation, but they might struggle to even reach .500 without several starters outperforming their projections. Gray was the rare starter who had a better ERA at Coors Field, posting a 4.54 home ERA and a 4.65 on the road. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve by getting out of Colorado altogether. He has consistently missed bats (24% K, 11% SwStr) while keeping walks in check (8%), netting a career 4.00 SIERA. A 9.0 H/9 and .317 BABIP have capped his upside and yielded a 1.34 WHIP. The change in home park alone should aid a drop in that WHIP, as Coors has the highest hit park factor in the game while the new Globe Life has been 16th since opening in 2020.

How is Pérez only 31 years old? I’m fairly certain he has been in the league for 38 years, so I’m thoroughly confused. The lefty veteran returns to where it all began as the fabled “veteran presence,” though a host of prospects and recently-graduated young arms could land him in the bullpen by summer. Dunning likely caps out as a No. 3, but the groundball righty has been plenty capable in 151.2 major league innings thus far. If the revamped infield defense can turn that 52% groundball rate into more outs – his .338 BABIP was fifth-highest among 109 pitchers with at least 110 IP – then a sub-4.00 ERA could be on the way.

Howard and Hearn leveraged strong spring outings into starting roles out of camp and will be pivotal arms if this club hopes to shock the AL West. Howard’s deep arsenal of average-or-better pitches made him the 33rd prospect on last year’s Top 100, but only his fastball has found any success in his 74 innings at the big league level. Hearn got his first taste of starting in the majors at the end of last season and did well enough to hold the role coming into this year. In 10 starts and a pair of four-inning piggyback outings, he posted a 4.63 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 58.3 innings. It’s not impossible to envision the two combining for 250 innings of mid-4.00s ERA ball, and that’s not even the full upside.

Keep an eye on Otto and Winn as potential summer impact arms. Even acknowledging the tiny sample, Otto’s 18% K-BB rate in 23.3 innings would’ve gotten more attention if not for a comical .423 BABIP and 46% LOB rate that netted a 9.26 ERA. The 6.09 difference between his ERA and FIP was the largest split in baseball among 567 pitchers with at least 20 IP. Winn slotted in 52nd in this year’s Top 100, and the 22-year-old could spend half the season in the majors with a fast start in Triple-A.

Washington’s success will likely hinge on a trio of vets trying to rebound and a pair of quality prospects with just 40.3 combined innings at Triple-A. A National League-high 37 home runs allowed fueled Corbin’s league-worst 111 earned runs in 2021. Despite the brutal 5.82 ERA, he had a career-best 92.5 mph average fastball velocity and his 4.61 SIERA points to some palatable skills. His path back to a sub-4.00 ERA comes via home run suppression, though the Nats would no doubt take 170-plus innings of a mid-4.00s starter just to get through what is likely to be a rough season. Strasburg has pitched just 26.2 innings since a dream 2019 season that saw him eclipse 200 innings for just the second time in his career (NL-high 209, plus another 36.1 playoff frames). He is hoping to return from thoracic outlet syndrome this year, and it would be great to see the superstar return to form, though his best days are almost certainly behind him.

Sánchez, a non-roster invitee, is hoping to bounce back at age-38 after an ugly 53 innings in 2020 and a year off in 2021, but he has allowed 17 base runners in 6.1 spring innings and might not make the club. Ross had elbow surgery to remove a bone spur and likely won’t return until Memorial Day at the earliest. He pitched very well over 108 innings last year, but health issues have plagued him throughout his six-year career. None of Rogers, Espino, Fedde, or Sánchez carry much upside and will likely mostly be asked to fill innings at various points throughout the season.

The game-changing upside resides in the arms of Gray and Cavalli (and even Adon a bit if you are looking for a sleeper, though there is still heavy relief risk with him). Gray was a key piece in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer trade and acquitted himself well in a 70.2-inning sample despite an extreme home run issue (2.4 HR/9). He had just a 0.3 HR/9 in 198 minor league innings with a great 23% K-BB rate, hinting at substantial upside. Cavalli ripped through the minors in a three-level pro debut across High-, Double- and Triple-A, though it was clear even in a small sample (24.2 IP) that he met his match in Triple-A. He will start 2022 there and could make a summer debut if he develops a legitimate third pitch and sharpens the command on his entire arsenal.

The Pirates will almost certainly remain one of the worst teams in the league, but outside of Quintana, they have a host of arms who can develop into useful pieces for the future. A brutal start to 2021 landed Quintana in the bullpen and he never recovered, resulting in a lost season where his 6.43 ERA completely obscured an otherwise solid 3.94 SIERA.

Keller hasn’t lived up to his significant prospect hype in 170.1 major league innings, but he once again has folks buzzing after reworking himself this offseason at Tread Athletics and carrying the improvement into spring training. His velo is way up, the walks are way down, and there is major breakout potential if these changes hold for the 26-year-old righty.

Brubaker and Thompson are both entering their age-28 season, but they have just 274 combined major league innings, so there is still some untapped potential in their arms. Brubaker’s 17% K-BB rate was the best among the seven Pirates with at least 70 IP last year, but a massive 2.0 HR/9 decimated his ERA. Thompson looked solid in 13 starts with the Marlins last season; Miami’s near-endless list of quality arms made him expendable and netted Jacob Stallings in trade. At 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, Thompson cuts the figure of an innings eater and the Pirates will likely test that idea.

Wilson has a tenuous hold on a rotation spot unless the skills take a significant leap. He has just a 7% K-BB rate in 116.2 major league innings, as he allows too much contact, a lot of which is substantial (10.6 H/9 and 1.7 HR/9). Crowe and Peters will be on deck out of the bullpen while Contreras is the one to watch. He is the No. 3 prospect for the Pirates and No. 41 overall thanks to mid-90s heat, swing-and-miss secondary offerings, and a good control profile.

The Diamondbacks continue to slog through their rebuild and the state of their starters says that it’s still going to take some time. If Gallen remains healthy, he is a budding ace and can definitely front the rotation of their next contending team. He labored through a trio of injuries (forearm, elbow, hamstring) en route to just 121.1 innings last year, but closed strong with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 19% K-BB rate in 48 innings. He won’t be ready to start the second game of the season, but he should be ready the first time Arizona needs a fifth starter.

Kelly could be Gallen’s deputy atop the rotation, as he returned from a 2020 shoulder injury with a solid campaign in ’21 (4.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 13% K-BB). Repeating that performance over 180-plus innings would be great for the Diamondbacks. A strong spring doesn’t guarantee anything in terms of regular season results, but if Kelly can maintain some of the swing-and-miss he’s shown in the Cactus League, there could be a sub-4.00 ERA season ahead.

Bumgarner had a volatile season. An ugly 5.73 ERA through his first 12 starts was interrupted by a month-plus shoulder injury, and while he did post a 2.39 ERA in the eight starts after returning, the performance was not backed by his underlying stats. In fact, his 13% K-BB rate was markedly worse than the 17% mark we saw his first 12 starts. It all came to a head over his final six starts, with a 9% K-BB rate instrumental in his 6.35 ERA during that time. If there is a positive to take from the season, it’s the 1.18 WHIP, but the home runs seem to be here to stay (1.5 in 2021, 1.4 since ’17) and he is living on a thin velocity margin (90.4 mph) that could send his ERA north of 5.00 if his strikeout rate dips below 20%.

Weaver missed most of 2021 as health continues to elude him. He did make it back to finish the season with a decent September, but the next time he eclipses 100 innings will be just the second of his career. Above-average strikeout and walk rates since 2019 give him a foundation to build upon and there could be a sub-4.00 ERA season if he can stay healthy and trim the 1.3 HR/9.

Davies is perfect to eat up some innings on a second division team, though Arizona will likely give innings to younger guys like Gilbert, Martin, Castellanos, and Taylor Widener if Davies can’t get his ERA back under 5.00 this year. Straily returns to MLB after a pair of seasons in Korea, though a rough spring has landed him in the minors to start the year.

The Marlins have made a clear effort to add stable, short-term veterans like Dylan Floro, Anthony Bass, Louis Head, and Richard Bleier while also taking fliers on big velocity closer to their roster’s fringe (Rule 5’ing Zach Pop; signing Anthony Bender, who has become integral; adding Jimmy Yacabonis, Tommy Nance, and Aneurys Zabala). This org has leaned almost completely away from backspinning, carrying style fastballs and into sinkers, with only converted outfielder Sean Guenther and the newly acquired Cole Sulser working with a backspinning heater.

That’s fascinating and also potentially a problem, since pitchers with sinker shape fastballs tend to miss fewer bats than their backspinning counterparts, and arm slot/stylistic diversity would seem to be an advantage for bullpens. Miami lacks this, and will parade heavy fastball after heavy fastball out of their bullpen, though changeup artist Nick Neidert makes for an interesting change of pace option in long relief.

The shape of the movement on Sulser’s breaking ball and changeup both changed in 2021 and he had a career season at age 31. Hard-throwing enigma Tanner Scott, also acquired Sunday, had an ERA over 5.00 last year but his xFIP was closer to 4.00. He’s always going to have issues with walks, but his rare lefty velocity and plus-plus slider give him a shot to have dominant stretches when his delivery is clicking. It feels like he’s been around forever but Scott is only just on the precipice of his arbitration years.

It’s possible that a combination of injuries and team need will lead to one or both of Edward Cabrera and Sixto Sánchez ending the year as Miami’s high-leverage options coming out of the ‘pen. Those two have such incredible stuff that they could be dominant despite their fastballs’ underlying blemishes, and the young Marlins rotation may be tough to crack.

Having swingman Cody Poteet back for the entire year makes Miami’s group of swingman/long relief types deep with homegrown guys who have come up as starters, with Brax Garrett, Neidert, and Jordan Holloway fitting that bill as well.

This group is both extremely right-handed and in flux as the Reds rebuild. Lucas Sims has found consistency in the Reds ‘pen with his reworked arm action. His set a career-high in fastball velocity, slider usage, and strikeout rate last season. Luis Cessa was a middle-inning stalwart in New York for a long time and should be a four-to-six out option here. Jeff Hoffman is the higher-variance version of that multi-inning relief profile. The Reds gave Hoffman a slider in lieu of his curveball when they acquired him from Colorado, and his strikeout rate increased last year, but he still walks too many guys.

Justin Wilson had shoulder and hamstring issues in 2021 and had his worst season. He’s had injuries limit him to fewer than 40 innings in each of the last two complete seasons.

Watch Art Warren here. After dealing with many injuries and velo fluctuations in Seattle, he seems to have stabilized and was dominant across a small sample in the big leagues last year. He sits 95 mph and has a plus slider, which he throws nearly 60% of the time.

The Reds are Hunter Strickland’s seventh org since 2019, and his once prodigious velocity is now closer to average.

Tony Santillan and Ryan Hendrix are both mid-90s with a slider types. Young Dauri Moreta is a little athletic guy who fills the zone. Trey Wingenter looks svelte and sat 97-99 mph in my live looks at him this spring, but his command is all over the place. Reiver Sanmartin is more likely to pitch in the rotation than work out of the bullpen, unless some of the younger prospects bubble up through the system throughout the year.

While he obviously has closer-quality stuff, can Gregory Soto execute with the consistency of a contending team’s closer? I’m skeptical. Alex Lange is a dark horse candidate to supplant him by the end of the year. While his fastball doesn’t miss a ton of bats, both of Lange’s secondaries generated swinging strike rates in excess of 22% last year. If any of Kyle Funkhouser (16% BB% last season), Joe Jiménez (nearly 17% BB%) or José Cisnero (12% BB%, has dealt with elbow issues this spring) progress from a strike-throwing standpoint, they’re all candidates to be the first bullpen banana by the end of the year, as they all have huge stuff. For this relief corps to hang with those of the true contenders, several of them would need to take that step.

Andrew Chafin, who signed with Detroit in March, has been a steady primary lefty option out of big league bullpens since 2014 and is coming off a career-high innings total and career-low ERA. He’ll begin the season on the IL with a groin injury, but isn’t expected to be out for long. After he had dealt with consistent injury, Michael Fulmer’s arm strength seemed to be all the way back last year, as he sat 95.7 mph, up nearly three ticks from his 2020 fastball velo. He’s been averaging only about 92 so far this spring, though.

While the Tigers have built good-looking starter depth such that they can deal with the typical rate of injury while keeping pace with the other American League Central teams, that depth doesn’t seem to exist in their bullpen.

The Mariners’ combination of depth and high-end options might suffice to come away with enough tightly contested games to contend for their division crown, though we probably shouldn’t expect them to quite replicate last year’s 33-19 record in one-run games. Paul Sewald was still only sitting 91-92 mph in my live looks this spring, but the angle of his fastball and Sewald’s command of it make his power pitcher rebirth a viable mode of operation. Diego Castillo and Drew Steckenrider have upper-90s heat and late-inning experience, while Andrés Muñoz has been pumping 99-101 mph this spring and might be the best weapon in this bullpen by the end of the year if he can harness his slider.

Maybe some of Sergio Romo’s legendary slider command will rub off on Muñoz. The 39-year-old vet is still a viable middle-inning option and will present an awkward mid-game change of pace to opposing hitters. His addition here is a sign Wyatt Mills isn’t quite ready.

Anthony Misiewicz (pronounced mih-SEV-itch) is an athletic, multi-pitch lefty with a great arm action. He, Justus Sheffield, and Erik Swanson (Misiewicz is easily the best athlete of those three) all have starting experience but Sheffield is the one most likely to work multiple innings in relief. Matthew Festa has bounced back a bit and was sitting 90-92 mph during the spring.

The Guardians feel as though they’re ranked too low relative to the quality of their stuff. Emmanuel Clase agreed to a five-year extension over the weekend. His 100 mph cutter is an elite, unique weapon, and Clase is the most electric of a very entertaining group in Cleveland.

James Karinchak and Nick Mikolajchak (if you pronounce it like “Michael Logic,” then you’re pretty close) each have fastballs with gigantic carry, though Karinchak’s stuff was less explosive after sticky stuff enforcement picked up last year. Young Mikolajchak has a chance to be a late-inning weapon thanks to his fastball’s riding action and his plus-plus slider.

Converted outfielder Anthony Gose also has premium stuff if we’re looking at fastball velocity and breaking ball shape, but he’s never commanded either pitch well enough to establish himself since he made the switch to the mound five years ago. Submariner Nick Sandlin was a starter in college and adds to this relief corps’ fun factor. Power lefty Sam Hentges might break out in a relief role, as he’ll be allowed to inelegantly bully hitters with his upper-90s gas.

Cutter maestro Bryan Shaw is in year two of his second tour of duty with Cleveland and still performs like a stable middle relief piece. Former Rule 5 pick Trevor Stephan is a traditional mid-90s/slider sixth- or seventh-inning type.

There’s talent and volatility to the extreme in this group, such that I would not be surprised if it was one of the best five bullpens in baseball when the year concludes. All of Ryan Helsley, Alex Reyes, Giovanny Gallegos, Jordan Hicks, Génesis Cabrera, and even a healthy, in-shape Kodi Whitley have closer-quality stuff, but all of them have dealt with injury or fluctuations in that stuff. If this entire group is banging on all cylinders, it will be a contender-quality bullpen, though it has already taken a hit, as Reyes has a frayed labrum and was just put on the 60-day IL.

Gallegos’ velocity dipped in the middle of last year, when he was part of ongoing trade rumors, then resurged toward the end of the season; he again finished with a FIP under 3.00. Cabrera has three plus pitches and 30-grade control. Helsley and Hicks have each dealt with myriad injuries throughout their careers, but look healthy this spring. Hicks was only sitting in the mid-90s during the 2021 Fall League, but he’s been sitting 99-101 mph as he tunes up in Eastern Florida; Helsley has been sitting 95-98. Both sinkerballers figure to work late innings here, and the hard-throwing hydra of Gallegos, Cabrera, Helsley and Hicks has the feel of a contender’s late-inning contingent.

Whitley or Junior Fernández could conceivably join that group. Whitley has only been sitting 91-94 mph this spring but his fastball’s carry and angle allow him to pump it past hitters at the letters, and his changeup is plus, as is Fernández’s.

Buttressing that group are the steady Nick Wittgren and T.J. McFarland. McFarland is the Platonic ideal of the second bullpen lefty, while Wittgren is an efficient, strike-throwing middle-inning option. Aaron Brooks and Drew VerHagen are the latest in a streak of Cardinals signed out of pro ball in Asia. Brooks (coming back from the KBO’s Kia Tigers) has a four-pitch mix and can really spin it, but he lost a tick of velo from 2020 to ’21. VerHagen’s delivery changed in Japan and he’s projected to open the season in the rotation, but could work a few innings in relief if Jack Flaherty comes back from injury in short order.

If the sidewinding Camilo Doval can continue to locate his slider with the consistency he found late last year, he’ll be one of the best relievers in baseball. That was not a feature of his skillset until crunch time in 2021.

Skee-Ball style righty Tyler Rogers is the most important pitcher in the game for your casual baseball-watching friends and family to see, as he defies all convention. As baseball becomes more fixated on low release heights, will we see more pitchers who use this style of bowling? And if we do, will hitters start to become more comfortable against them? In any event, Doval, Rogers, and 35-year-old Jake McGee (in year two of his deal, with a club option for 2023) figure to work in the back of this bullpen.

Like chunks of their big league roster, the Giants relief corp features several pieces who were squeezed off other clubs’ rosters. Veteran journeyman Dominic Leone’s fastball averaged a career-high 95 mph last year, and the same was true for former Twin Zack Littell. Former Marlin Jarlín García finally started leaning on his changeup (which was projected to be his best pitch while he was a prospect) in 2021 and posted a career-high strikeout rate. Groundball machine José Álvarez started using his changeup more often while he was with the Phillies, a trend which has continued with San Francisco.

New names here include Matthew Boyd (from Detroit) and Jakob Junis (from Kansas City). Junis’ repertoire shifted to include more cutters last year, and he had a career best season. Boyd will start the year on the IL. Converted catcher Kervin Castro made his debut last year, and sat 94-95 mph with a big curveball again this spring.

During their rebuilding phase, the Cubs have targeted bullpen consistency rather than play strike-throwing roulette with young flamethrowers who theoretically have more ceiling. Former Brave Chris Martin has the third-lowest walk rate among relievers with at least 150 innings pitched since 2015 at a minuscule 4%. Jesse Chavez, Steven Brault (who, in true baseball rat fashion, was randomly hanging out at an ASU game earlier this spring), Daniel Norris and several others lower down the depth chart have starting experience and could provide multiple innings out of the bullpen, which is extremely valuable early on as starters continue to get their feet under them after an abbreviated spring training.

David Robertson leaned into his fastball’s cut action and looked good down the stretch for the Rays last year. Rowan Wick and Mychael Givens are both converted position players. Wick, 29, has had trouble staying healthy for an entire season. Givens, who has one of the more entertaining deliveries of this century, doubled his changeup usage in 2021 and remains effective even though his velo has been slipping.

While these familiar names are the bedrock of the bullpen for now, several fresh-faced prospects will start to trickle in throughout this season and become the core of the next competitive Cubs contingent. Manuel Rodríguez and his upper-90s fastball arrived last year. Ben Leeper will likely be the first 2020 undrafted free agent to reach the big leagues, while Cayne Ueckert and Ethan Roberts, the latter of whom has elite curveball spin, are both potential long-term fits in the North Side ‘pen. Michael Rucker and Keegan Thompson are long relief/swingman types, with Thompson potentially vying for a rotation spot throughout the summer.

Sean Doolittle and Tyler Clippard are back for a bespectacled epilogue to their Nationals careers after having previously spent almost 11 combined seasons in D.C., with three combined All-Star appearances between them. Doolittle had a velo rebound in 2021 after a rough, shortened 2020 campaign during which he lost three ticks from the prior season. Clippard’s arm strength has been slowly seeping away since (checks) wow, 2012, dwindling into the upper-80s for the last few seasons. He’s 37 now and is near the end of an incredible 15-year big league career. Will Harris (age 37) and low-slot slingin’ Steve Cishek (35) each have merely a decade of experience under their belts. Cishek remains a middle-inning weapon against righties (opposing right-handed hitters have slashed .210/.278/.305 throughout his career) while Harris has only thrown 23 innings combined over the last two seasons.

Austin Voth moved to the bullpen in 2021 and picked up two ticks of velo. He’ll provide multiple innings in relief. So, too, could 24-year-old Francisco Perez (acquired last year from Cleveland), veteran Paolo Espino, or Aaron Sanchez, all of whom have experience starting.

The Nationals have a half-dozen hard-throwing enigmas in their mid-20s who have a chance to grow into true late-inning options. Finnegan was signed as a minor league free agent a couple of offseasons ago and established himself in a middle-inning role before closing several Nats games late last year. He sits 95 mph, but his splitter and slider miss bats more frequently than his heater. Patrick Murphy and Hunter Harvey have premium stuff but lost huge chunks of their tenures with their previous teams (Harvey mostly with Baltimore, Murphy with Toronto) to injury, and so has mercurial lefty Seth Romero. Tanner Rainey probably has the best pure stuff in this entire group but was extremely wild when he was healthy last season. Mason Thompson, 24, was acquired from San Diego for Daniel Hudson last year and sits 96-99 mph with a plus slider, but tends to be very wild.

Chris Stratton, a converted starter, had been an ultra-consistent middle-inning option for the last few years, and moved into the Pirates closer role very late in 2021. David Bednar, the older brother of 2021 College World Series Most Outstanding Player and Giants prospect Will Bednar, has more traditional closer’s stuff, pumping gas at 96 mph while both his curveball and splitter generate plus swinging strike rates.

Heath Hembree is on a one-year deal coming off a career season during which he scrapped his curveball and had a little velo bump, leading to a personal best strikeout rate. His 5.59 ERA in 2021 was a mirage.

This site was skeptical of Duane Underwood Jr. as a prospect, and while he hasn’t hit what his proponents hoped his ceiling would be, he has performed pretty well relative to the non-first round high school pitchers who were picked in his draft year, insofar as he’s had a multi-year big league career. He doubled his career innings total last season.

Anthony Banda, once a Top 100 prospect, struggled with injuries for several years just as he was on the precipice of the big leagues. He was claimed off waivers from San Francisco last season and made a change from a slider to a curveball immediately after the move, so maybe that pitch will progress this year. He is one of several lefties in the mix for big league reps next to the Allegheny. Aaron Fletcher (who has been traded a few times) lost velocity last year, but at peak he has worked in the mid-90s with sink and tail, and a big, sweeping slider. Sam Howard sits 93 mph and has a good slider, while Dillon Peters has a bevy of fringe pitches.

Blake Cederlind and Nick Mears have huge arm strength. Miguel Yajure hasn’t pitched yet this spring due to a lingering back issue. Injuries have now defined his last several seasons.

The 37-year-old Mark Melancon (on a two-year pact), prodigal son Ian Kennedy (one year with a mutual option for 2023) and 40-year-old lefty Oliver Pérez will all try to stabilize a D-backs bullpen that is in the midst of significant turnover. Given how effectively he varies the cadence of his delivery, it’s no wonder that Pérez, who on Saturday faced a lineup of Padres prospects literally half his age, has been able to cheat Father Time to this point. Melancon’s cutter was only sitting 88 mph at the end of March, which is four ticks below his 2021 level of velocity. Kennedy’s fastballs, sitting 92 mph, are down merely two ticks from 2021. It’s early… right?

Night owl baseball fans will recognize J.B. Wendelken and Noé Ramirez, who have been middle-inning stalwarts in Oakland and Anaheim, respectively, for most of their careers, and are now occupying the middle innings in the desert.

Looking for breakout candidates here? Sean Poppen, who couldn’t quite crack the Twins pitching staff and has since bounced around Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and now Arizona, has a great slider and his fastball has been peaking in the 96-97 mph area this spring, sitting 94. Young Luis Frías, in his second option year, has plus arm strength and a deep enough repertoire that he has been developed as a starter so far, though he may debut in the bullpen.

This is Joe Mantiply’s third year with Arizona, where he enjoyed a two-tick fastball velocity increase in his first season, and a return to emphasis of his changeup in his second.

Taylor Widener, Caleb Smith, and Edwin Uceta all have starter pedigrees and should provide multiple innings in relief. Keynan Middleton once looked like a set-up type reliever before settling into fringe 40-man territory coming off of a 2018 Tommy John.

The shape of the movement of Trivino’s cutter and curveball became more distinct from one another in 2021, and it was the second consecutive year in which he spread his pitch usage more evenly across his four offerings. He’s an eventual trade candidate, but until then, he’s a steady, if unspectacular, closer option for the A’s.

Guerra arrived in Oakland last year on his seventh org since 2014 and had a career season amid similar changes to his pitch usage. He has an unpredictable four-pitch mix headlined by his excellent changeup.

Leviathan righty Domingo Acevedo — 6-foot-7, 240 pounds — fell off the Yankees roster after years of inconsistent, sometimes electric performance, and landed with the A’s on a minor league deal. He posted a dominant 32 innings at Triple-A last year before getting a cup of coffee late in September and October. His velo was down (92 mph) late in the year compared to while he was in Vegas (94 mph), but Acevedo also has good secondary stuff (both his slider and changeup) and could probably get by with fringe relief velo, but be really good if he ever sustains the mid-90s peaks he’s shown in the past. He’s a high-variance 28-year-old. So, too, are former Rule 5 pick (a couple of times) Dany Jiménez and two-down NFL linebacker Wandisson Charles, both of whom throw hard but have consistency issues.

Brent Honeywell and A.J. Puk are both former top prospects whose careers as mid-rotation starters were derailed by injury. Southpaw Sams Selman and Moll are part of a deep group of fringy lefties that also includes Adam Kolarek and the recently-acquired Kirby Snead.

Former top five pick Dillon Tate has had velo increases each of the last two seasons and is once again working in the 94-97 mph range from his prospect peak. His heater doesn’t miss bats, but both his changeup and slider do at plus-plus rates, which are up across the board since the new Orioles regime has taken root.

Lefty Paul Fry has a plus slider, which he locates with much more consistency than his fastball. Hard-throwing Cuban southpaw Cionel Pérez, still only 25, is reunited with Mike Elias (Pérez originally signed with Houston) in Baltimore. Jorge López has long had tantalizing stuff and issues with walks, and yet he’s been continuously miscast in a starting role for almost his entire career. If he moves to the bullpen full-time, there’s a small chance he has a breakout season.

Several relief prospects bubbling up here now. Bryan Baker was drafted by the Rockies and traded to Toronto as the PTBNL in the Seunghwan Oh 오승환 deal. He had brief big league time with the Jays late last year but was squeezed off the roster and claimed off waivers by Baltimore in November. He throws really hard, sitting 96-97 mph and touching 99, which is up two ticks from 2019 when he was only sitting 94. Felix Bautista is also in that vein, sitting 97-99 with 20-grade command. Logan Gillaspie was a high school catcher who has already had quite a baseball journey and will soon be a big leaguer. Signed out of Indy Ball, Gillaspie was sitting 94-97 last Fall, and has a four-pitch mix. Mike Baumann’s vicious slider will likely find it’s way to Camden Yards, and Kyle Bradish (who a scout source raved about this spring) is starting to feel more likely to debut as a starter.

The Rangers bullpen is comprised of a bevy of 20-somethings — some homegrown, some acquired by the pro scouting department — who might establish themselves as integral parts of the long-term relief corps, with a few seasoned vets on short-term deals sprinkled in.

The veterans are Garrett Richards and Greg Holland, who combine for three decades in pro ball. Richards should provide valuable length out of the ‘pen, which will be especially important early in the season due to the short runway for starters to get ready. He’s on a one-year deal with a 2023 option. Holland, on a straight one-year deal, will look to continue his career’s improbable, post-surgery second act. Either of them could end the summer on a contender if they pitch well.

Of the relievers in their prime, former college swingman Josh Sborz had a velo spike, added a curveball, and established himself as a core Ranger reliever last year. Joe Barlow ended the 2021 season as the club’s closer, though Chris Woodward told MLB.com last week that he’d prefer Barlow not close to start the year. By far the most consistent strike-throwing in Barlow’s career came during his combined 50 IP between Triple-A and the majors in 2021. He may be due for a regression in that area, but he does have good stuff. Slider monster Glen Otto, who came over from New York in the Joey Gallo deal and was among the swinging strike rate leaders in the upper levels of the minors last year, is the most likely to join Sborz as the bedrock of Woodward’s bullpen. Albert Abreu, acquired from the Yankees in a smaller deal just before the season, will show you three plus pitches and 30 control. He’s out of options.

Other young relievers who might find another gear in the big leagues include Demarcus Evans (whose fastball has huge carry, though he lacks a second good pitch), Nick Snyder (who has premium velocity), and shooting star prospects Spencer Howard and Ricky Vanasco, who have had their young careers stalled by injury. Vanasco looked great last fall coming off of surgery.

Until that group steps up, veteran Spencer Patton (in his second season back from Japan) and three-pitch lefty Brett Martin figure to be the more reliable middle-inning guys. Dennis Santana (like Sborz, a former Dodgers prospect) and John King have missed fewer bats than expected during their prospect days. Former first overall pick (as a shortstop) Matt Bush will continue his second act as a big league reliever.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández had Tommy John in March and April of last year, respectively, and could be back in the middle of the 2022 season, potentially before the trade deadline. That’s more relevant for backfield rehab scouting target Leclerc, who has a pair of team options in 2023 and ’24. Hernández has the stuff to be an impact late-inning arm if he can harness it.

Alex Colomé, who is on a one-year deal, rode his cutter and a straight fastball to a half-decade of rock solid eighth inning duty. His velocity has been trending down for the last few years and has lost about a tick-and-a-half from its peak.

The 6-foot-6, 277-pound Carlos Estévez’s release point changed throughout the 2019 season, and his fastball has featured more sink since then. In 2021, his arm strength climbed back to its pinnacle throughout the season, peaking in the 99-101 mph range late in the year. He’s also upped his changeup usage in two consecutive seasons and now has three pitches generating something close to the league-average swinging strike rate. He’s out of the gate sitting 93-95 mph early in the spring of 2022.

Daniel Bard has come into spring training with his usual upper-90s gas, sitting 97 mph at age 36. He’s upped his slider usage year-over-year for the last three seasons and is now at the point where he is using it about as often as his fastball. All three of Bard, Estévez, and Colomé are in their contract years and are candidates to move at the deadline, making all three key evaluation targets for contending teams.

Robert Stephenson came over from Cincinnati as part of a fairly sizable trade centered around him and Jeff Hoffman, and enjoyed a huge velo spike. He had become extremely slider-heavy with the Reds but returned to a more even fastball/slider split, and reintroduced the occasional curveball and changeup to his repertoire. He’s come out pumping 96-97 mph this spring.

Veteran Jhoulys Chacín will provide valuable length out of the bullpen, and it seemed as though the same might be asked of lefty Ty Blach, he of local powerhouse high school Regis Jesuit. The Rockies stretched Blach out to three innings early in the spring before deploying him in single-inning outings more recently. He is coming off of TJ.

Most of the rest of this bullpen is full of pitchers who either don’t miss as many bats as you might guess given their velocity and the visual explosiveness of their stuff (Tyler Kinley, Julian Fernández, Jordan Sheffield, Justin Lawrence), or have been unable to sustain impact arm strength for extended periods (Ben Bowden, Lucas Gilbreath). Gilbreath was a 2020 instructs breakout lefty who sat 93-96 mph that fall, but he’s been more 90-93 since. Lawrence is one of the hardest throwing sidearmers in the league, sitting 97 mph. Gilbreath, Sheffield, and Lawrence are the three guys most likely to be in Denver for the long haul as all of them only have a year or less of service time. Lefty Helcris Olivarez, 21, is also on the 40-man and is in his second option year. He’s so raw as a strike-thrower that he may be ‘penned at some point this year and end up getting a late-season cup of coffee.

Ramírez is the class of the third base position, and one of the best players in the game period. He does a little bit of everything — he’s perpetually one of the best baserunners in the game and plays excellent defense — but really, he’s at the top of the list because of his shocking power output. I say shocking because Ramírez is only 5-foot-9, but if you’ve watched him play over the course of his career, it’s easy to see what’s going on. He’s ferociously strong and has some of the best bat control in the game.

His easy pop forces pitchers to stay out of the strike zone, which means his sharp batting eye gets him into better counts, which means he gets to hit fastballs, which… you get the idea, it’s a virtuous cycle for Ramírez and a disaster for opponents. The biggest question around him at this point is where he’ll play in the future; the Guardians tend to trade their stars rather than allow them to leave in free agency, and Ramírez is only under contract through 2023.

That might limit how long Cleveland fans get to enjoy his excellence, but it shouldn’t impact what they’ll see on the field: one of the best and most powerful hitters around. Not pound-for-pound, and not for a little guy. Just one of the best, period.

Bregman has some of the widest error bars in baseball this year. He was a bona fide superstar in 2018 and ’19 before a desultory ‘20 and ‘21, when he was hampered by an injured wrist. With surgery now in the rear view mirror, we project Bregman to leap back into the ranks of the game’s elite hitters, but there’s obviously plenty of risk there. His offensive floor is quite high – he combines excellent pitch recognition with elite bat-to-ball skills – but he needs to hit for power to truly excel, and he needs to hunt inside pitches he can pull to do that.

He’s an excellent fit for Houston’s short left field porch, and I think he’ll hit 25-30 homers this year, but if he has another power outage, he’s more All-Star than MVP contender. That’s a wonderful floor – most teams would kill for a guy whose worst case is good-glove regular who walks as much as he strikes out – but Houston will be hoping for far more. It likely won’t decide the American League West, where the Astros project to have a sizable lead, but in a year where the worst division winner is disadvantaged, every drop of offense will help.

Devers looked clearly compromised in the playoffs last year, and still produced a 172 wRC+ coming off one of his best seasons as a pro. All he does is hit, and he continues to improve his power output year by year. An upper-30s home run total feels like a fair expectation for him now, and he improved on his last major offensive shortcoming last year, reining in his expansive approach at the plate without losing his trademark power.

If he can continue to reduce his swinging strike rate and consolidate his gains on the strikeout and walk front, the sky is the limit. His power numbers last year were downright absurd – he barreled up 15% of the balls he put into play, easily the best rate of his career. He puts the ball in the air, scalds it when he does, and uses the whole field, which plays well with the Green Monster in left. There’s really not much to fault here aside from some middling defense.

If Devers can’t go, Dalbec will fill in, but that’s a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency scenario only, and the team will ride Devers as far as he can carry them at third.

Machado might be the happiest player in baseball if the shift finally gets banned next year. He won’t have to trot out to right field multiple times per game, and can instead focus on what he does best: playing an excellent defensive third base while hitting for power and average. He’s even added walks to the offensive mix in recent years, which has made him above average at every aspect of hitting – I would have said offense, but his baserunning could still stand to improve somewhat if we’re picking nits.

Machado is great, and he’s been durable to boot. The Padres would prefer to give him some rest days, either as an afternoon off or just as the DH, by using multi-positional whiz Kim at third. In fact, between Kim and Profar, San Diego would be in line for average production at the hot corner even if Machado missed time. With Fernando Tatis Jr. shelved to start the season, however, Machado will likely carry a heavy load in the early going. He can handle it, but no less a team than the Padres has shown the futility of counting on your stars, and the necessity of good depth.

Arenado’s transition out of Coors Field went about as well as expected. He hit 34 homers, played his normal excellent defense, and produced a batting line 13% above average despite a career-low BABIP. It was enough to catapult St. Louis into the playoffs, but you don’t have to look too hard to find warning signs: his batted ball distribution is ticking into dangerously fly ball-heavy territory, his hard-hit rate was a career low, and he’s not walking like he did at his peak.

Even as that general trajectory continues, Arenado’s incredible contact rate and strong defense give him room to underachieve in basically every other facet of the game and still be a star. He’s so great at those two things that all he has to do is spike one category – walk a bit more frequently, run into a few homers, or run a high BABIP – to be one of the most valuable hitters in the National League. It’s not your usual star offensive player skill set, but it works wonderfully nonetheless. Sosa gets a sprinkling of playing time here, but that’s just a guess – whoever loses the shortstop battle will likely get traded or end up as an overqualified utility infielder.

Rendon has had a forgettable time in Anaheim so far; he was lights out in the abbreviated 2020 season before missing more than 100 games with injury and looking like a shell of himself last year. He dealt with injury issues early in his career, which makes last season’s hip impingement feel vaguely menacing, even more so than the phrase “hip impingement” normally would.

His projections essentially split the difference between peak Rendon and league average, which makes sense to me. If he’s back to full health, his reclined batting stance is going to give AL West pitchers nightmares. The top of the Angels lineup is scary, and a healthy Rendon adds both on-base and power pressure to the equation. One non-injury-related risk: Rendon has the perfect swing to take advantage of increased carry on the baseball, which means he also stands to suffer quite a bit if the ball is even deader this year.

Regardless of how Rendon’s return plays out, he has a stranglehold on the position. The rest of the playing time projection here is an assortment of guys the Angels like but can’t find a starting role for, and they’re hoping to keep it that way. It’s a tough enough road to the playoffs even with Rendon healthy; if he misses another 100 games, it almost doesn’t matter who steps in to take his place.

Fatalistic fans might be surprised, but I think Donaldson will be just fine in pinstripes. The guy just hit .247/.352/.475 (124 wRC+) in a down year; it’s not outrageous to think he might still have value. Will his defense ever recover to its pre-injury levels? Probably not. But the Yankees didn’t bring him in for his glove, and while it might have been more satisfying to use the money they allocated to him to sign Carlos Correa, Donaldson will do a good job of lengthening their lineup nonetheless. He should hit for power and get on base frequently.

He’ll also presumably get plenty of DH days, which means LeMahieu will spend some time at third as well. He’s another player whose decline has been greatly overstated; did you know he was worth 2.4 WAR last year and produced an average batting line? His power fell off a cliff, and he didn’t look like the borderline MVP candidate from early in his Yankees tenure, but he gets such a boost from never striking out and taking piles of walks that even a slight rebound in power production will make his overall line sing. Sure, it’s not ideal to give a time share to two righties whose combined age is pushing 70, but when they’re both this good at hitting, it will probably work anyway.

Moncada’s minor league numbers always suggested that he was capable of walking a ton, but they also came with an unstated question: can he do it without striking out a third of the time? Well, for the first time in the majors, he managed to limit his strikeouts without sacrificing walks, and the result was a 122 wRC+ despite modest power numbers – only 14 homers in 616 PA’s.

Key to those strikeouts was one change: swinging more at pitches over the heart of the plate. He took 7.4% of pitches down the middle with two strikes, which sounds high but is half (!) the rate at which he took them in 2018 and ’20, two seasons where he struck out far too much. Combining that situational awareness – swing when it’s important to – with his normal selective nature augurs better days ahead, and I’m excited to see what Moncada does for an encore. If he just keeps swinging at pitches he can drive, he’ll likely put together another solid year.

As for the rest of the position, the Sox have a bunch of so-so options to give Moncada a breather. Burger doesn’t have an obvious spot on the roster, but if they call him up, he’ll likely shift to primary Moncada backup while García and Harrison handle second. Until then, they’re around to help out, but this is Moncada’s show.

Chapman’s bat is far more of a question mark than it was two years ago, as he’s produced a 104 wRC+ over the past two seasons while dealing with a hip injury he suffered in 2020. But the problem, at least offensively, comes down to a different culprit: strikeout rate. You can strike out a third of the time and still produce an average offensive line – Chapman just spent two years proving that – but it’s hard to truly excel when you give so many at-bats away. He’s making far less contact than he did at his peak, a problem he’ll have to remedy before re-ascending the ranks of the best third basemen in the game.

Our projection thinks he’ll be closer to his recent form than his best years, but there’s a silver lining: he’s so good defensively that we think he’ll produce a boatload of value anyway. Since arriving in the majors in 2017, Chapman and Nolan Arenado are clearly the best two third base defenders in the game, and no one else even comes close – Chapman is 27 outs ahead of third-place José Ramírez. So are the Jays worried about his hitting? Certainly – but only his hitting, because he’ll be a valuable player even if he never gets the strikeouts under control.

Riley drew some down-ballot MVP support in 2021, only a year after posting a below-replacement season. Yes, baseball is volatile, but it’s not supposed to be this volatile. Really, though, last year was partially a pleasant surprise and partially Riley finding an offensive level that always looked likely in his prospect days. His batted ball data tells you what the eye test would have anyway: he has top-of-the-charts power and a knack for elevating the ball.

We’re expecting more of the same from him this year, along with more walks as pitchers avoid him and he adapts to the way he’s pitched. The main weakness in his game at this point is on the defensive end, but he’s looked sharper there as well, and there’s a chance that this is the year Riley puts it all together – plate discipline, power, and defense – and leaves the consistency questions behind him. For Atlanta’s sake, he’ll need to add durability to that list, because Holt and Arcia represent a giant step down. That makes this one of the highest-variance positions on the defending champions’ roster.

At 37, it’s reasonable to wonder how much longer Turner can keep getting away with this. Third base is hard on your legs, and he’s been injury prone throughout his career. But he tied a career high in games played last season, and put up a batting line 27% better than average, though his playoff performance was poor and injury-marred. It’s strange to think of Turner as the weakest link on the Dodgers – he’s been such an important part of the team over the years – but time wounds all heels, and Turner is playing on borrowed time.

Of course, it’s the Dodgers, so they have All-Stars, plural, backing him up. Taylor will get time all across the diamond when he’s not holding down second base. Muncy is going to enter that second base picture as well, and he’ll DH, and apparently play third – it feels like the Dodgers are just making up positions to find a way to fit everyone in at this point. One ancillary benefit of this overlapping expertise: it’s hard to imagine a situation where they field a below-average third base, even if Turner is severely hampered by injury. It turns out that adding Freddie Freeman to your already-complete lineup creates some enviable depth.

Ooh, shiny! Witt is our No. 2 prospect in all of baseball, and ran amok in the minors last year, with 33 homers and a .360 OBP across two levels. At only 21, he’s still an unfinished product, but he already looks like the best hitter on the Royals to me, and we think he’s an average shortstop defender to boot, which makes him a great third base defender. That’s the kind of production that you can build your roster around – or, you know, shoehorn in at third base so that Adalberto Mondesi can get another chance at shortstop. Potato, potahto.

Speaking of Mondesi, we think he’ll see some time at third as well, because Witt will need rest days and Mondesi would surely appreciate saving some wear and tear on his body with occasional easier defensive assignments. When Mondesi is playing short and Witt is resting, Rivera and Dozier stand ready to chip in as well. But even with sprinkles of backup playing time in our projections, this is Witt’s show. If he can take the job and run with it, he might be the anchor of a new Kansas City core. It’s not a given that he’ll click right away – even great prospects sometimes struggle in their initial call-ups – but this projection shows that we think a star-making debut is likely.