The Marlins have made a clear effort to add stable, short-term veterans like Dylan Floro, Anthony Bass, Louis Head, and Richard Bleier while also taking fliers on big velocity closer to their roster’s fringe (Rule 5’ing Zach Pop; signing Anthony Bender, who has become integral; adding Jimmy Yacabonis, Tommy Nance, and Aneurys Zabala). This org has leaned almost completely away from backspinning, carrying style fastballs and into sinkers, with only converted outfielder Sean Guenther and the newly acquired Cole Sulser working with a backspinning heater.

That’s fascinating and also potentially a problem, since pitchers with sinker shape fastballs tend to miss fewer bats than their backspinning counterparts, and arm slot/stylistic diversity would seem to be an advantage for bullpens. Miami lacks this, and will parade heavy fastball after heavy fastball out of their bullpen, though changeup artist Nick Neidert makes for an interesting change of pace option in long relief.

The shape of the movement on Sulser’s breaking ball and changeup both changed in 2021 and he had a career season at age 31. Hard-throwing enigma Tanner Scott, also acquired Sunday, had an ERA over 5.00 last year but his xFIP was closer to 4.00. He’s always going to have issues with walks, but his rare lefty velocity and plus-plus slider give him a shot to have dominant stretches when his delivery is clicking. It feels like he’s been around forever but Scott is only just on the precipice of his arbitration years.

It’s possible that a combination of injuries and team need will lead to one or both of Edward Cabrera and Sixto Sánchez ending the year as Miami’s high-leverage options coming out of the ‘pen. Those two have such incredible stuff that they could be dominant despite their fastballs’ underlying blemishes, and the young Marlins rotation may be tough to crack.

Having swingman Cody Poteet back for the entire year makes Miami’s group of swingman/long relief types deep with homegrown guys who have come up as starters, with Brax Garrett, Neidert, and Jordan Holloway fitting that bill as well.

This group is both extremely right-handed and in flux as the Reds rebuild. Lucas Sims has found consistency in the Reds ‘pen with his reworked arm action. His set a career-high in fastball velocity, slider usage, and strikeout rate last season. Luis Cessa was a middle-inning stalwart in New York for a long time and should be a four-to-six out option here. Jeff Hoffman is the higher-variance version of that multi-inning relief profile. The Reds gave Hoffman a slider in lieu of his curveball when they acquired him from Colorado, and his strikeout rate increased last year, but he still walks too many guys.

Justin Wilson had shoulder and hamstring issues in 2021 and had his worst season. He’s had injuries limit him to fewer than 40 innings in each of the last two complete seasons.

Watch Art Warren here. After dealing with many injuries and velo fluctuations in Seattle, he seems to have stabilized and was dominant across a small sample in the big leagues last year. He sits 95 mph and has a plus slider, which he throws nearly 60% of the time.

The Reds are Hunter Strickland’s seventh org since 2019, and his once prodigious velocity is now closer to average.

Tony Santillan and Ryan Hendrix are both mid-90s with a slider types. Young Dauri Moreta is a little athletic guy who fills the zone. Trey Wingenter looks svelte and sat 97-99 mph in my live looks at him this spring, but his command is all over the place. Reiver Sanmartin is more likely to pitch in the rotation than work out of the bullpen, unless some of the younger prospects bubble up through the system throughout the year.

While he obviously has closer-quality stuff, can Gregory Soto execute with the consistency of a contending team’s closer? I’m skeptical. Alex Lange is a dark horse candidate to supplant him by the end of the year. While his fastball doesn’t miss a ton of bats, both of Lange’s secondaries generated swinging strike rates in excess of 22% last year. If any of Kyle Funkhouser (16% BB% last season), Joe Jiménez (nearly 17% BB%) or José Cisnero (12% BB%, has dealt with elbow issues this spring) progress from a strike-throwing standpoint, they’re all candidates to be the first bullpen banana by the end of the year, as they all have huge stuff. For this relief corps to hang with those of the true contenders, several of them would need to take that step.

Andrew Chafin, who signed with Detroit in March, has been a steady primary lefty option out of big league bullpens since 2014 and is coming off a career-high innings total and career-low ERA. He’ll begin the season on the IL with a groin injury, but isn’t expected to be out for long. After he had dealt with consistent injury, Michael Fulmer’s arm strength seemed to be all the way back last year, as he sat 95.7 mph, up nearly three ticks from his 2020 fastball velo. He’s been averaging only about 92 so far this spring, though.

While the Tigers have built good-looking starter depth such that they can deal with the typical rate of injury while keeping pace with the other American League Central teams, that depth doesn’t seem to exist in their bullpen.

The Mariners’ combination of depth and high-end options might suffice to come away with enough tightly contested games to contend for their division crown, though we probably shouldn’t expect them to quite replicate last year’s 33-19 record in one-run games. Paul Sewald was still only sitting 91-92 mph in my live looks this spring, but the angle of his fastball and Sewald’s command of it make his power pitcher rebirth a viable mode of operation. Diego Castillo and Drew Steckenrider have upper-90s heat and late-inning experience, while Andrés Muñoz has been pumping 99-101 mph this spring and might be the best weapon in this bullpen by the end of the year if he can harness his slider.

Maybe some of Sergio Romo’s legendary slider command will rub off on Muñoz. The 39-year-old vet is still a viable middle-inning option and will present an awkward mid-game change of pace to opposing hitters. His addition here is a sign Wyatt Mills isn’t quite ready.

Anthony Misiewicz (pronounced mih-SEV-itch) is an athletic, multi-pitch lefty with a great arm action. He, Justus Sheffield, and Erik Swanson (Misiewicz is easily the best athlete of those three) all have starting experience but Sheffield is the one most likely to work multiple innings in relief. Matthew Festa has bounced back a bit and was sitting 90-92 mph during the spring.

The Guardians feel as though they’re ranked too low relative to the quality of their stuff. Emmanuel Clase agreed to a five-year extension over the weekend. His 100 mph cutter is an elite, unique weapon, and Clase is the most electric of a very entertaining group in Cleveland.

James Karinchak and Nick Mikolajchak (if you pronounce it like “Michael Logic,” then you’re pretty close) each have fastballs with gigantic carry, though Karinchak’s stuff was less explosive after sticky stuff enforcement picked up last year. Young Mikolajchak has a chance to be a late-inning weapon thanks to his fastball’s riding action and his plus-plus slider.

Converted outfielder Anthony Gose also has premium stuff if we’re looking at fastball velocity and breaking ball shape, but he’s never commanded either pitch well enough to establish himself since he made the switch to the mound five years ago. Submariner Nick Sandlin was a starter in college and adds to this relief corps’ fun factor. Power lefty Sam Hentges might break out in a relief role, as he’ll be allowed to inelegantly bully hitters with his upper-90s gas.

Cutter maestro Bryan Shaw is in year two of his second tour of duty with Cleveland and still performs like a stable middle relief piece. Former Rule 5 pick Trevor Stephan is a traditional mid-90s/slider sixth- or seventh-inning type.

There’s talent and volatility to the extreme in this group, such that I would not be surprised if it was one of the best five bullpens in baseball when the year concludes. All of Ryan Helsley, Alex Reyes, Giovanny Gallegos, Jordan Hicks, Génesis Cabrera, and even a healthy, in-shape Kodi Whitley have closer-quality stuff, but all of them have dealt with injury or fluctuations in that stuff. If this entire group is banging on all cylinders, it will be a contender-quality bullpen, though it has already taken a hit, as Reyes has a frayed labrum and was just put on the 60-day IL.

Gallegos’ velocity dipped in the middle of last year, when he was part of ongoing trade rumors, then resurged toward the end of the season; he again finished with a FIP under 3.00. Cabrera has three plus pitches and 30-grade control. Helsley and Hicks have each dealt with myriad injuries throughout their careers, but look healthy this spring. Hicks was only sitting in the mid-90s during the 2021 Fall League, but he’s been sitting 99-101 mph as he tunes up in Eastern Florida; Helsley has been sitting 95-98. Both sinkerballers figure to work late innings here, and the hard-throwing hydra of Gallegos, Cabrera, Helsley and Hicks has the feel of a contender’s late-inning contingent.

Whitley or Junior Fernández could conceivably join that group. Whitley has only been sitting 91-94 mph this spring but his fastball’s carry and angle allow him to pump it past hitters at the letters, and his changeup is plus, as is Fernández’s.

Buttressing that group are the steady Nick Wittgren and T.J. McFarland. McFarland is the Platonic ideal of the second bullpen lefty, while Wittgren is an efficient, strike-throwing middle-inning option. Aaron Brooks and Drew VerHagen are the latest in a streak of Cardinals signed out of pro ball in Asia. Brooks (coming back from the KBO’s Kia Tigers) has a four-pitch mix and can really spin it, but he lost a tick of velo from 2020 to ’21. VerHagen’s delivery changed in Japan and he’s projected to open the season in the rotation, but could work a few innings in relief if Jack Flaherty comes back from injury in short order.

If the sidewinding Camilo Doval can continue to locate his slider with the consistency he found late last year, he’ll be one of the best relievers in baseball. That was not a feature of his skillset until crunch time in 2021.

Skee-Ball style righty Tyler Rogers is the most important pitcher in the game for your casual baseball-watching friends and family to see, as he defies all convention. As baseball becomes more fixated on low release heights, will we see more pitchers who use this style of bowling? And if we do, will hitters start to become more comfortable against them? In any event, Doval, Rogers, and 35-year-old Jake McGee (in year two of his deal, with a club option for 2023) figure to work in the back of this bullpen.

Like chunks of their big league roster, the Giants relief corp features several pieces who were squeezed off other clubs’ rosters. Veteran journeyman Dominic Leone’s fastball averaged a career-high 95 mph last year, and the same was true for former Twin Zack Littell. Former Marlin Jarlín García finally started leaning on his changeup (which was projected to be his best pitch while he was a prospect) in 2021 and posted a career-high strikeout rate. Groundball machine José Álvarez started using his changeup more often while he was with the Phillies, a trend which has continued with San Francisco.

New names here include Matthew Boyd (from Detroit) and Jakob Junis (from Kansas City). Junis’ repertoire shifted to include more cutters last year, and he had a career best season. Boyd will start the year on the IL. Converted catcher Kervin Castro made his debut last year, and sat 94-95 mph with a big curveball again this spring.

During their rebuilding phase, the Cubs have targeted bullpen consistency rather than play strike-throwing roulette with young flamethrowers who theoretically have more ceiling. Former Brave Chris Martin has the third-lowest walk rate among relievers with at least 150 innings pitched since 2015 at a minuscule 4%. Jesse Chavez, Steven Brault (who, in true baseball rat fashion, was randomly hanging out at an ASU game earlier this spring), Daniel Norris and several others lower down the depth chart have starting experience and could provide multiple innings out of the bullpen, which is extremely valuable early on as starters continue to get their feet under them after an abbreviated spring training.

David Robertson leaned into his fastball’s cut action and looked good down the stretch for the Rays last year. Rowan Wick and Mychael Givens are both converted position players. Wick, 29, has had trouble staying healthy for an entire season. Givens, who has one of the more entertaining deliveries of this century, doubled his changeup usage in 2021 and remains effective even though his velo has been slipping.

While these familiar names are the bedrock of the bullpen for now, several fresh-faced prospects will start to trickle in throughout this season and become the core of the next competitive Cubs contingent. Manuel Rodríguez and his upper-90s fastball arrived last year. Ben Leeper will likely be the first 2020 undrafted free agent to reach the big leagues, while Cayne Ueckert and Ethan Roberts, the latter of whom has elite curveball spin, are both potential long-term fits in the North Side ‘pen. Michael Rucker and Keegan Thompson are long relief/swingman types, with Thompson potentially vying for a rotation spot throughout the summer.

Sean Doolittle and Tyler Clippard are back for a bespectacled epilogue to their Nationals careers after having previously spent almost 11 combined seasons in D.C., with three combined All-Star appearances between them. Doolittle had a velo rebound in 2021 after a rough, shortened 2020 campaign during which he lost three ticks from the prior season. Clippard’s arm strength has been slowly seeping away since (checks) wow, 2012, dwindling into the upper-80s for the last few seasons. He’s 37 now and is near the end of an incredible 15-year big league career. Will Harris (age 37) and low-slot slingin’ Steve Cishek (35) each have merely a decade of experience under their belts. Cishek remains a middle-inning weapon against righties (opposing right-handed hitters have slashed .210/.278/.305 throughout his career) while Harris has only thrown 23 innings combined over the last two seasons.

Austin Voth moved to the bullpen in 2021 and picked up two ticks of velo. He’ll provide multiple innings in relief. So, too, could 24-year-old Francisco Perez (acquired last year from Cleveland), veteran Paolo Espino, or Aaron Sanchez, all of whom have experience starting.

The Nationals have a half-dozen hard-throwing enigmas in their mid-20s who have a chance to grow into true late-inning options. Finnegan was signed as a minor league free agent a couple of offseasons ago and established himself in a middle-inning role before closing several Nats games late last year. He sits 95 mph, but his splitter and slider miss bats more frequently than his heater. Patrick Murphy and Hunter Harvey have premium stuff but lost huge chunks of their tenures with their previous teams (Harvey mostly with Baltimore, Murphy with Toronto) to injury, and so has mercurial lefty Seth Romero. Tanner Rainey probably has the best pure stuff in this entire group but was extremely wild when he was healthy last season. Mason Thompson, 24, was acquired from San Diego for Daniel Hudson last year and sits 96-99 mph with a plus slider, but tends to be very wild.

Chris Stratton, a converted starter, had been an ultra-consistent middle-inning option for the last few years, and moved into the Pirates closer role very late in 2021. David Bednar, the older brother of 2021 College World Series Most Outstanding Player and Giants prospect Will Bednar, has more traditional closer’s stuff, pumping gas at 96 mph while both his curveball and splitter generate plus swinging strike rates.

Heath Hembree is on a one-year deal coming off a career season during which he scrapped his curveball and had a little velo bump, leading to a personal best strikeout rate. His 5.59 ERA in 2021 was a mirage.

This site was skeptical of Duane Underwood Jr. as a prospect, and while he hasn’t hit what his proponents hoped his ceiling would be, he has performed pretty well relative to the non-first round high school pitchers who were picked in his draft year, insofar as he’s had a multi-year big league career. He doubled his career innings total last season.

Anthony Banda, once a Top 100 prospect, struggled with injuries for several years just as he was on the precipice of the big leagues. He was claimed off waivers from San Francisco last season and made a change from a slider to a curveball immediately after the move, so maybe that pitch will progress this year. He is one of several lefties in the mix for big league reps next to the Allegheny. Aaron Fletcher (who has been traded a few times) lost velocity last year, but at peak he has worked in the mid-90s with sink and tail, and a big, sweeping slider. Sam Howard sits 93 mph and has a good slider, while Dillon Peters has a bevy of fringe pitches.

Blake Cederlind and Nick Mears have huge arm strength. Miguel Yajure hasn’t pitched yet this spring due to a lingering back issue. Injuries have now defined his last several seasons.

The 37-year-old Mark Melancon (on a two-year pact), prodigal son Ian Kennedy (one year with a mutual option for 2023) and 40-year-old lefty Oliver Pérez will all try to stabilize a D-backs bullpen that is in the midst of significant turnover. Given how effectively he varies the cadence of his delivery, it’s no wonder that Pérez, who on Saturday faced a lineup of Padres prospects literally half his age, has been able to cheat Father Time to this point. Melancon’s cutter was only sitting 88 mph at the end of March, which is four ticks below his 2021 level of velocity. Kennedy’s fastballs, sitting 92 mph, are down merely two ticks from 2021. It’s early… right?

Night owl baseball fans will recognize J.B. Wendelken and Noé Ramirez, who have been middle-inning stalwarts in Oakland and Anaheim, respectively, for most of their careers, and are now occupying the middle innings in the desert.

Looking for breakout candidates here? Sean Poppen, who couldn’t quite crack the Twins pitching staff and has since bounced around Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and now Arizona, has a great slider and his fastball has been peaking in the 96-97 mph area this spring, sitting 94. Young Luis Frías, in his second option year, has plus arm strength and a deep enough repertoire that he has been developed as a starter so far, though he may debut in the bullpen.

This is Joe Mantiply’s third year with Arizona, where he enjoyed a two-tick fastball velocity increase in his first season, and a return to emphasis of his changeup in his second.

Taylor Widener, Caleb Smith, and Edwin Uceta all have starter pedigrees and should provide multiple innings in relief. Keynan Middleton once looked like a set-up type reliever before settling into fringe 40-man territory coming off of a 2018 Tommy John.

The shape of the movement of Trivino’s cutter and curveball became more distinct from one another in 2021, and it was the second consecutive year in which he spread his pitch usage more evenly across his four offerings. He’s an eventual trade candidate, but until then, he’s a steady, if unspectacular, closer option for the A’s.

Guerra arrived in Oakland last year on his seventh org since 2014 and had a career season amid similar changes to his pitch usage. He has an unpredictable four-pitch mix headlined by his excellent changeup.

Leviathan righty Domingo Acevedo — 6-foot-7, 240 pounds — fell off the Yankees roster after years of inconsistent, sometimes electric performance, and landed with the A’s on a minor league deal. He posted a dominant 32 innings at Triple-A last year before getting a cup of coffee late in September and October. His velo was down (92 mph) late in the year compared to while he was in Vegas (94 mph), but Acevedo also has good secondary stuff (both his slider and changeup) and could probably get by with fringe relief velo, but be really good if he ever sustains the mid-90s peaks he’s shown in the past. He’s a high-variance 28-year-old. So, too, are former Rule 5 pick (a couple of times) Dany Jiménez and two-down NFL linebacker Wandisson Charles, both of whom throw hard but have consistency issues.

Brent Honeywell and A.J. Puk are both former top prospects whose careers as mid-rotation starters were derailed by injury. Southpaw Sams Selman and Moll are part of a deep group of fringy lefties that also includes Adam Kolarek and the recently-acquired Kirby Snead.

Former top five pick Dillon Tate has had velo increases each of the last two seasons and is once again working in the 94-97 mph range from his prospect peak. His heater doesn’t miss bats, but both his changeup and slider do at plus-plus rates, which are up across the board since the new Orioles regime has taken root.

Lefty Paul Fry has a plus slider, which he locates with much more consistency than his fastball. Hard-throwing Cuban southpaw Cionel Pérez, still only 25, is reunited with Mike Elias (Pérez originally signed with Houston) in Baltimore. Jorge López has long had tantalizing stuff and issues with walks, and yet he’s been continuously miscast in a starting role for almost his entire career. If he moves to the bullpen full-time, there’s a small chance he has a breakout season.

Several relief prospects bubbling up here now. Bryan Baker was drafted by the Rockies and traded to Toronto as the PTBNL in the Seunghwan Oh 오승환 deal. He had brief big league time with the Jays late last year but was squeezed off the roster and claimed off waivers by Baltimore in November. He throws really hard, sitting 96-97 mph and touching 99, which is up two ticks from 2019 when he was only sitting 94. Felix Bautista is also in that vein, sitting 97-99 with 20-grade command. Logan Gillaspie was a high school catcher who has already had quite a baseball journey and will soon be a big leaguer. Signed out of Indy Ball, Gillaspie was sitting 94-97 last Fall, and has a four-pitch mix. Mike Baumann’s vicious slider will likely find it’s way to Camden Yards, and Kyle Bradish (who a scout source raved about this spring) is starting to feel more likely to debut as a starter.

The Rangers bullpen is comprised of a bevy of 20-somethings — some homegrown, some acquired by the pro scouting department — who might establish themselves as integral parts of the long-term relief corps, with a few seasoned vets on short-term deals sprinkled in.

The veterans are Garrett Richards and Greg Holland, who combine for three decades in pro ball. Richards should provide valuable length out of the ‘pen, which will be especially important early in the season due to the short runway for starters to get ready. He’s on a one-year deal with a 2023 option. Holland, on a straight one-year deal, will look to continue his career’s improbable, post-surgery second act. Either of them could end the summer on a contender if they pitch well.

Of the relievers in their prime, former college swingman Josh Sborz had a velo spike, added a curveball, and established himself as a core Ranger reliever last year. Joe Barlow ended the 2021 season as the club’s closer, though Chris Woodward told MLB.com last week that he’d prefer Barlow not close to start the year. By far the most consistent strike-throwing in Barlow’s career came during his combined 50 IP between Triple-A and the majors in 2021. He may be due for a regression in that area, but he does have good stuff. Slider monster Glen Otto, who came over from New York in the Joey Gallo deal and was among the swinging strike rate leaders in the upper levels of the minors last year, is the most likely to join Sborz as the bedrock of Woodward’s bullpen. Albert Abreu, acquired from the Yankees in a smaller deal just before the season, will show you three plus pitches and 30 control. He’s out of options.

Other young relievers who might find another gear in the big leagues include Demarcus Evans (whose fastball has huge carry, though he lacks a second good pitch), Nick Snyder (who has premium velocity), and shooting star prospects Spencer Howard and Ricky Vanasco, who have had their young careers stalled by injury. Vanasco looked great last fall coming off of surgery.

Until that group steps up, veteran Spencer Patton (in his second season back from Japan) and three-pitch lefty Brett Martin figure to be the more reliable middle-inning guys. Dennis Santana (like Sborz, a former Dodgers prospect) and John King have missed fewer bats than expected during their prospect days. Former first overall pick (as a shortstop) Matt Bush will continue his second act as a big league reliever.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández had Tommy John in March and April of last year, respectively, and could be back in the middle of the 2022 season, potentially before the trade deadline. That’s more relevant for backfield rehab scouting target Leclerc, who has a pair of team options in 2023 and ’24. Hernández has the stuff to be an impact late-inning arm if he can harness it.

Alex Colomé, who is on a one-year deal, rode his cutter and a straight fastball to a half-decade of rock solid eighth inning duty. His velocity has been trending down for the last few years and has lost about a tick-and-a-half from its peak.

The 6-foot-6, 277-pound Carlos Estévez’s release point changed throughout the 2019 season, and his fastball has featured more sink since then. In 2021, his arm strength climbed back to its pinnacle throughout the season, peaking in the 99-101 mph range late in the year. He’s also upped his changeup usage in two consecutive seasons and now has three pitches generating something close to the league-average swinging strike rate. He’s out of the gate sitting 93-95 mph early in the spring of 2022.

Daniel Bard has come into spring training with his usual upper-90s gas, sitting 97 mph at age 36. He’s upped his slider usage year-over-year for the last three seasons and is now at the point where he is using it about as often as his fastball. All three of Bard, Estévez, and Colomé are in their contract years and are candidates to move at the deadline, making all three key evaluation targets for contending teams.

Robert Stephenson came over from Cincinnati as part of a fairly sizable trade centered around him and Jeff Hoffman, and enjoyed a huge velo spike. He had become extremely slider-heavy with the Reds but returned to a more even fastball/slider split, and reintroduced the occasional curveball and changeup to his repertoire. He’s come out pumping 96-97 mph this spring.

Veteran Jhoulys Chacín will provide valuable length out of the bullpen, and it seemed as though the same might be asked of lefty Ty Blach, he of local powerhouse high school Regis Jesuit. The Rockies stretched Blach out to three innings early in the spring before deploying him in single-inning outings more recently. He is coming off of TJ.

Most of the rest of this bullpen is full of pitchers who either don’t miss as many bats as you might guess given their velocity and the visual explosiveness of their stuff (Tyler Kinley, Julian Fernández, Jordan Sheffield, Justin Lawrence), or have been unable to sustain impact arm strength for extended periods (Ben Bowden, Lucas Gilbreath). Gilbreath was a 2020 instructs breakout lefty who sat 93-96 mph that fall, but he’s been more 90-93 since. Lawrence is one of the hardest throwing sidearmers in the league, sitting 97 mph. Gilbreath, Sheffield, and Lawrence are the three guys most likely to be in Denver for the long haul as all of them only have a year or less of service time. Lefty Helcris Olivarez, 21, is also on the 40-man and is in his second option year. He’s so raw as a strike-thrower that he may be ‘penned at some point this year and end up getting a late-season cup of coffee.

Ramírez is the class of the third base position, and one of the best players in the game period. He does a little bit of everything — he’s perpetually one of the best baserunners in the game and plays excellent defense — but really, he’s at the top of the list because of his shocking power output. I say shocking because Ramírez is only 5-foot-9, but if you’ve watched him play over the course of his career, it’s easy to see what’s going on. He’s ferociously strong and has some of the best bat control in the game.

His easy pop forces pitchers to stay out of the strike zone, which means his sharp batting eye gets him into better counts, which means he gets to hit fastballs, which… you get the idea, it’s a virtuous cycle for Ramírez and a disaster for opponents. The biggest question around him at this point is where he’ll play in the future; the Guardians tend to trade their stars rather than allow them to leave in free agency, and Ramírez is only under contract through 2023.

That might limit how long Cleveland fans get to enjoy his excellence, but it shouldn’t impact what they’ll see on the field: one of the best and most powerful hitters around. Not pound-for-pound, and not for a little guy. Just one of the best, period.

Bregman has some of the widest error bars in baseball this year. He was a bona fide superstar in 2018 and ’19 before a desultory ‘20 and ‘21, when he was hampered by an injured wrist. With surgery now in the rear view mirror, we project Bregman to leap back into the ranks of the game’s elite hitters, but there’s obviously plenty of risk there. His offensive floor is quite high – he combines excellent pitch recognition with elite bat-to-ball skills – but he needs to hit for power to truly excel, and he needs to hunt inside pitches he can pull to do that.

He’s an excellent fit for Houston’s short left field porch, and I think he’ll hit 25-30 homers this year, but if he has another power outage, he’s more All-Star than MVP contender. That’s a wonderful floor – most teams would kill for a guy whose worst case is good-glove regular who walks as much as he strikes out – but Houston will be hoping for far more. It likely won’t decide the American League West, where the Astros project to have a sizable lead, but in a year where the worst division winner is disadvantaged, every drop of offense will help.

Devers looked clearly compromised in the playoffs last year, and still produced a 172 wRC+ coming off one of his best seasons as a pro. All he does is hit, and he continues to improve his power output year by year. An upper-30s home run total feels like a fair expectation for him now, and he improved on his last major offensive shortcoming last year, reining in his expansive approach at the plate without losing his trademark power.

If he can continue to reduce his swinging strike rate and consolidate his gains on the strikeout and walk front, the sky is the limit. His power numbers last year were downright absurd – he barreled up 15% of the balls he put into play, easily the best rate of his career. He puts the ball in the air, scalds it when he does, and uses the whole field, which plays well with the Green Monster in left. There’s really not much to fault here aside from some middling defense.

If Devers can’t go, Dalbec will fill in, but that’s a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency scenario only, and the team will ride Devers as far as he can carry them at third.

Machado might be the happiest player in baseball if the shift finally gets banned next year. He won’t have to trot out to right field multiple times per game, and can instead focus on what he does best: playing an excellent defensive third base while hitting for power and average. He’s even added walks to the offensive mix in recent years, which has made him above average at every aspect of hitting – I would have said offense, but his baserunning could still stand to improve somewhat if we’re picking nits.

Machado is great, and he’s been durable to boot. The Padres would prefer to give him some rest days, either as an afternoon off or just as the DH, by using multi-positional whiz Kim at third. In fact, between Kim and Profar, San Diego would be in line for average production at the hot corner even if Machado missed time. With Fernando Tatis Jr. shelved to start the season, however, Machado will likely carry a heavy load in the early going. He can handle it, but no less a team than the Padres has shown the futility of counting on your stars, and the necessity of good depth.

Arenado’s transition out of Coors Field went about as well as expected. He hit 34 homers, played his normal excellent defense, and produced a batting line 13% above average despite a career-low BABIP. It was enough to catapult St. Louis into the playoffs, but you don’t have to look too hard to find warning signs: his batted ball distribution is ticking into dangerously fly ball-heavy territory, his hard-hit rate was a career low, and he’s not walking like he did at his peak.

Even as that general trajectory continues, Arenado’s incredible contact rate and strong defense give him room to underachieve in basically every other facet of the game and still be a star. He’s so great at those two things that all he has to do is spike one category – walk a bit more frequently, run into a few homers, or run a high BABIP – to be one of the most valuable hitters in the National League. It’s not your usual star offensive player skill set, but it works wonderfully nonetheless. Sosa gets a sprinkling of playing time here, but that’s just a guess – whoever loses the shortstop battle will likely get traded or end up as an overqualified utility infielder.

Rendon has had a forgettable time in Anaheim so far; he was lights out in the abbreviated 2020 season before missing more than 100 games with injury and looking like a shell of himself last year. He dealt with injury issues early in his career, which makes last season’s hip impingement feel vaguely menacing, even more so than the phrase “hip impingement” normally would.

His projections essentially split the difference between peak Rendon and league average, which makes sense to me. If he’s back to full health, his reclined batting stance is going to give AL West pitchers nightmares. The top of the Angels lineup is scary, and a healthy Rendon adds both on-base and power pressure to the equation. One non-injury-related risk: Rendon has the perfect swing to take advantage of increased carry on the baseball, which means he also stands to suffer quite a bit if the ball is even deader this year.

Regardless of how Rendon’s return plays out, he has a stranglehold on the position. The rest of the playing time projection here is an assortment of guys the Angels like but can’t find a starting role for, and they’re hoping to keep it that way. It’s a tough enough road to the playoffs even with Rendon healthy; if he misses another 100 games, it almost doesn’t matter who steps in to take his place.

Fatalistic fans might be surprised, but I think Donaldson will be just fine in pinstripes. The guy just hit .247/.352/.475 (124 wRC+) in a down year; it’s not outrageous to think he might still have value. Will his defense ever recover to its pre-injury levels? Probably not. But the Yankees didn’t bring him in for his glove, and while it might have been more satisfying to use the money they allocated to him to sign Carlos Correa, Donaldson will do a good job of lengthening their lineup nonetheless. He should hit for power and get on base frequently.

He’ll also presumably get plenty of DH days, which means LeMahieu will spend some time at third as well. He’s another player whose decline has been greatly overstated; did you know he was worth 2.4 WAR last year and produced an average batting line? His power fell off a cliff, and he didn’t look like the borderline MVP candidate from early in his Yankees tenure, but he gets such a boost from never striking out and taking piles of walks that even a slight rebound in power production will make his overall line sing. Sure, it’s not ideal to give a time share to two righties whose combined age is pushing 70, but when they’re both this good at hitting, it will probably work anyway.

Moncada’s minor league numbers always suggested that he was capable of walking a ton, but they also came with an unstated question: can he do it without striking out a third of the time? Well, for the first time in the majors, he managed to limit his strikeouts without sacrificing walks, and the result was a 122 wRC+ despite modest power numbers – only 14 homers in 616 PA’s.

Key to those strikeouts was one change: swinging more at pitches over the heart of the plate. He took 7.4% of pitches down the middle with two strikes, which sounds high but is half (!) the rate at which he took them in 2018 and ’20, two seasons where he struck out far too much. Combining that situational awareness – swing when it’s important to – with his normal selective nature augurs better days ahead, and I’m excited to see what Moncada does for an encore. If he just keeps swinging at pitches he can drive, he’ll likely put together another solid year.

As for the rest of the position, the Sox have a bunch of so-so options to give Moncada a breather. Burger doesn’t have an obvious spot on the roster, but if they call him up, he’ll likely shift to primary Moncada backup while García and Harrison handle second. Until then, they’re around to help out, but this is Moncada’s show.

Chapman’s bat is far more of a question mark than it was two years ago, as he’s produced a 104 wRC+ over the past two seasons while dealing with a hip injury he suffered in 2020. But the problem, at least offensively, comes down to a different culprit: strikeout rate. You can strike out a third of the time and still produce an average offensive line – Chapman just spent two years proving that – but it’s hard to truly excel when you give so many at-bats away. He’s making far less contact than he did at his peak, a problem he’ll have to remedy before re-ascending the ranks of the best third basemen in the game.

Our projection thinks he’ll be closer to his recent form than his best years, but there’s a silver lining: he’s so good defensively that we think he’ll produce a boatload of value anyway. Since arriving in the majors in 2017, Chapman and Nolan Arenado are clearly the best two third base defenders in the game, and no one else even comes close – Chapman is 27 outs ahead of third-place José Ramírez. So are the Jays worried about his hitting? Certainly – but only his hitting, because he’ll be a valuable player even if he never gets the strikeouts under control.

Riley drew some down-ballot MVP support in 2021, only a year after posting a below-replacement season. Yes, baseball is volatile, but it’s not supposed to be this volatile. Really, though, last year was partially a pleasant surprise and partially Riley finding an offensive level that always looked likely in his prospect days. His batted ball data tells you what the eye test would have anyway: he has top-of-the-charts power and a knack for elevating the ball.

We’re expecting more of the same from him this year, along with more walks as pitchers avoid him and he adapts to the way he’s pitched. The main weakness in his game at this point is on the defensive end, but he’s looked sharper there as well, and there’s a chance that this is the year Riley puts it all together – plate discipline, power, and defense – and leaves the consistency questions behind him. For Atlanta’s sake, he’ll need to add durability to that list, because Holt and Arcia represent a giant step down. That makes this one of the highest-variance positions on the defending champions’ roster.

At 37, it’s reasonable to wonder how much longer Turner can keep getting away with this. Third base is hard on your legs, and he’s been injury prone throughout his career. But he tied a career high in games played last season, and put up a batting line 27% better than average, though his playoff performance was poor and injury-marred. It’s strange to think of Turner as the weakest link on the Dodgers – he’s been such an important part of the team over the years – but time wounds all heels, and Turner is playing on borrowed time.

Of course, it’s the Dodgers, so they have All-Stars, plural, backing him up. Taylor will get time all across the diamond when he’s not holding down second base. Muncy is going to enter that second base picture as well, and he’ll DH, and apparently play third – it feels like the Dodgers are just making up positions to find a way to fit everyone in at this point. One ancillary benefit of this overlapping expertise: it’s hard to imagine a situation where they field a below-average third base, even if Turner is severely hampered by injury. It turns out that adding Freddie Freeman to your already-complete lineup creates some enviable depth.

Ooh, shiny! Witt is our No. 2 prospect in all of baseball, and ran amok in the minors last year, with 33 homers and a .360 OBP across two levels. At only 21, he’s still an unfinished product, but he already looks like the best hitter on the Royals to me, and we think he’s an average shortstop defender to boot, which makes him a great third base defender. That’s the kind of production that you can build your roster around – or, you know, shoehorn in at third base so that Adalberto Mondesi can get another chance at shortstop. Potato, potahto.

Speaking of Mondesi, we think he’ll see some time at third as well, because Witt will need rest days and Mondesi would surely appreciate saving some wear and tear on his body with occasional easier defensive assignments. When Mondesi is playing short and Witt is resting, Rivera and Dozier stand ready to chip in as well. But even with sprinkles of backup playing time in our projections, this is Witt’s show. If he can take the job and run with it, he might be the anchor of a new Kansas City core. It’s not a given that he’ll click right away – even great prospects sometimes struggle in their initial call-ups – but this projection shows that we think a star-making debut is likely.

Candelario is five years removed from being a prized prospect acquisition, and he’s finally starting to show the offensive prowess that made him so enticing in the minors. It’s hard to point out an area where he hasn’t improved, which makes me think that several improvements complement each other. The biggest change? He’s scrapped a passive approach at the plate in favor of hunting pitches he can drive. That’s not without drawbacks – he chases more now – but he was far too willing to take pitches early in his career, letting hittable pitches, that rarest baseball commodity, fly by unharmed.

Want it in numbers? Candelario was 18 runs below average on pitches over the heart of the plate in 2018, and 8 runs to the positive in ’21. That’s 26 runs of improvement, which you can see in his other stats: more barrels, more line drives, a higher hard-hit rate… you get the idea. The next great Tigers team could feature Candelario at third, a sentence that would have seemed outlandish two years ago. That will be the case unless he can’t handle the position defensively – with Spencer Torkelson locking first base down, credible third base defense is a necessity, and one that he’s sometimes struggled with.

The future is now… well, the future is almost now. Hayes laid waste to NL pitching in 2020, but his propensity to hit balls straight into the ground caught up to him last year. His bat-to-ball skills are certifiably elite, and he generates plus power despite a small frame, but none of that matters when you hit 60% grounders. It’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. syndrome in small scale; if he can elevate, Pittsburgh will celebrate.

Hayes has something Guerrero can’t hope to match, though, which is defense so sterling he belongs in the conversation with Chapman and Arenado for best glove in the league. Even if Hayes doesn’t have lightning in his bat – we’re projecting him for a league-average batting line – his defense should make up for it. In what promises to be another tough season for Pirates fans, Hayes stands out as an exception: he’ll certainly be one of the best players on the team, and if he can start putting the ball in the air, he’ll be one of the best third basemen in the game, period. Of course, that might not happen right away, as an ankle injury has slowed him this spring. But even if the team needs a few weeks from Chavis, Castillo, or Castro in the early going, Hayes will be the headliner.

Suárez was abysmal last year, but I won’t fault you (or him) for blaming it on an ill-advised move to shortstop. Surprise! So-so third base defenders can’t suddenly turn into shortstops, and the experiment didn’t last long. It seemed to sap his bat as well, so the Mariners are hoping that a full season at his normal defensive home will lead to an offensive rebound.

Suárez’s skills boil down to one thing: he pummels the ball and does a good job elevating. He strikes out too much, doesn’t hit for average, and doesn’t walk enough to make up for the strikeouts – but the dingers! So many of them! He hit 31 last year on the way to an 85 wRC+, a combination that’s hard to believe. Maybe this season won’t be quite as extreme, but that’s a caricature of what Seattle will hope for: a blah batting line buoyed by prodigious home run power.

Pity Toro, who appeared to have the everyday job here after a solid 2021 season. He’s the odd man out on the current roster, but if Suárez gets hurt or doesn’t rebound offensively, the Mariners will have the luxury of plugging in an average hitter with acceptable third base defense. Depth has been hard to come by in the Pacific Northwest in recent years; Toro’s poor fortune is the team’s gain as they attempt to end the longest playoff drought in the league.

Third base was a black hole for New York last year, and they signed Escobar early in the offseason to address that problem. He’s compiled a quietly competent 103 wRC+ over the past five years while providing flexible and valuable infield defense. It’s more slug than OBP, which carries some risk in cavernous Citi Field, but defense plus a little power beats no defense and a little power, which is what the Mets had before bringing Escobar into the fold.

Davis and McNeil, charter members of the “no defense and a little power” club, will spell Escobar at third, particularly when Davis can face a lefty pitcher. Both of them will likely out-hit Escobar, so you might think the playing time should be flipped, but Escobar’s fielding, McNeil’s ability to play second base, and the universal DH mean that all three can get playing time while providing defense the team has sorely lacked in recent seasons. They might not be in the top half of our rankings, but compared to what the team has tried at the hot corner in recent seasons, this is a huge upgrade.

For two years, Urshela looked like a star in the making, combining plus contact, average power, and divisive defense (the eye test likes him more than the numbers) for a Yankees team that sorely needed production at third. 2021 was a step backward in every facet; he struck out far more frequently, rarely walked, and ran into a pile of outs on the basepaths on his way to a below-average season.

You can see why the Twins want to take a chance on getting Good Gio; if we knew he would bounce back to his 2019 form, we’d have Minnesota comfortably in the top 10 on this list. The downside, well, that’s why the Yankees were willing to get rid of him. For a Minnesota team that’s planning on squeezing maximum value out of every dollar they spend, getting rid of a pricey veteran to ride the variance train with Urshela is defensible, but there’s no question it’s a gamble.

The other names here mute the risk considerably. Arraez doesn’t have an obvious defensive home, but he can really hit. Miranda hasn’t reached the majors yet, but his minor league numbers leap off the page, and he may force himself into the Twins’ plans sooner rather than later. Urshela might start the season with the job, but he’ll have to play well to hold off these two talented understudies.

Third base is a weird place to see Walls pop up; he’s an excellent defensive shortstop, after all. There’s just one problem: Wander Franco has shortstop locked down, which leaves Walls to shuttle around the diamond in addition to playing understudy at short. He scuffled offensively in his major league debut last year, but his minor league track record suggests that there’s room for improvement. His defense is, of course, unquestionably excellent.

Against lefties, even that defense probably won’t be enough to keep Walls on the field, though, as Tampa Bay will turn to Díaz for offensive production. You know what you’re getting with Díaz at this point: muscles that will blot out the sun, superlative patience, and a heaping helping of grounders. It works out for him, but also limits his upside, which is why Tampa Bay loves to cast him in part-time roles that take advantage of his strengths. Finally, it wouldn’t be a Rays depth chart without contributions from their burgeoning stable of exciting prospects, who stand ready to take over infield roles as needed.

Everything clicked for Urías when the Brewers shifted him to third base last year. He’s long been a statistical favorite, but he simply hadn’t put it together in the majors, and didn’t have the defensive chops to handle shortstop. After parking himself at third, though, the power he showed in 2019 came roaring back, to the tune of 25 doubles and 23 homers. What happened? Basically, he started elevating the ball; he has surprising power for someone his size, but that didn’t matter much when he was hitting everything into the ground.

This year, he’ll answer that question that plagues all breakout performers: can you do it again? Pitchers will try to force him to put the ball on the ground, and an inability to get airborne has plagued him in the past, so all eyes will be on his groundball rates as the season opens. There’s also the matter of defense; the Brewers liked his glove enough to try him at shortstop, but he wasn’t effective there last season. With a position now locked in, improved defensive consistency could push Urías from solid contributor to borderline star. Brosseau and Peterson are mostly just utility infielders here, but they’ll serve two roles: filling in for a week or two while Urías starts the season on the IL, and manning third when the team moves Urías to higher-value defensive positions when their middle infield starters get a day off.

Ibáñez performed admirably as a 27-year-old rookie last year, and earned the starting job by doing so. His bat-to-ball skills carry him offensively despite below-average raw power, though he’s shown signs of adding home runs to his game of late. That’s a welcome sign, because he’s always put the ball in the air, and fly ball hitters who don’t hit home runs have a tough time surviving in the modern game.

When he was a prospect coming out of Cuba, teams worried about Ibáñez’s defense, but we project him to impress with the glove. If he can do that — hardly out of the question given a solid performance at second base in 2021 — that makes for an intriguing player to supplement the team’s stars at second and short. If he can’t, the Rangers can turn to Miller, who they signed to crush righties and play below-average defense almost everywhere on the diamond. That’s a valuable skill set today, and we think he’ll be used all over the field, but he could also park himself at third if Ibáñez doesn’t work out.

Carpenter is an interesting lottery ticket; he was one of the best hitters in baseball five years ago, but fell on hard times by the end of his tenure in St. Louis. An offseason dedicated to reworking his swing might not change his trajectory, but if it does, he could be a boon as a source of walks and power for a Texas club that could use some offense.

Anderson is an excellent player, so my apologies to him for using this blurb to talk about how deep third base is, but 2.7 WAR for our 21st-ranked team is outrageous. The talent pool is deep; Anderson might be a top 10 left fielder, but the ranks of quality third basemen are seemingly endless. That’s an accident of ranking rather than an indictment of the players, though. Anderson is awesome! He has a career 111 wRC+, flashes plus power, and has the arm, reflexes, and speed to defend effectively at third or either outfield corner.

His 2021 was shortened by injury, so the Marlins prudently acquired another option at third. Wendle is a premium defender who gets by offensively on an excellent contact rate, and while he’ll have his work cut out for him backing up second and short, Miami’s best defensive alignment will likely send Anderson to an outfield corner to highlight Wendle’s glove. That means he’ll get his fair share of work here, as will Anderson – and even if they rank low on our list of team third base situations, they’ll rank highly on the list of position players who contribute to Marlins wins.

Longoria missed half the season last year, but he turned back the clock when he was healthy, hitting .261/.351/.482 for a 123 wRC+, his best numbers since his Tampa Bay peak. He looked better in every facet of his game, one of the faces of the rejuvenation machine that catapulted the Giants to a 106-win season. We don’t expect Longoria to duplicate that success this year, but there’s space to be worse than he was in 2021 and still help out, which is exactly what we’re projecting him for this season. A bigger worry: he’ll be on the IL to start the year, and well, he missed half the season last year. The backups might be important here.

This is San Francisco, so the depth chart behind Longoria is predictably fascinating. Flores is at his best against lefties, as is Longoria. But Flores is in the lineup for his bat, not his glove, and he’ll spend time everywhere you can imagine: first, second, third, DH – he hasn’t played the outfield in the major leagues, but there’s a first time for everything. Estrada will figure into the equation as well, at least when he isn’t serving as a backup shortstop or second baseman. When the three righties aren’t playing third, La Stella can bring his high-contact bat to bear – if he isn’t at second that day. It’s a complex rotation, but the Giants have proven adept at getting the most out of time shares that don’t look compelling at first glance.

McMahon was a revelation at third in the first post-Arenado season in Denver; he played sterling defense and had a career year at the plate. The only problem: that career year worked out to a 95 wRC+, and it’s hard to imagine his bat breaking out after four seasons in the majors. He doesn’t excel at any offensive facet of the game, which means intermittent trouble making contact drags his batting line down. It’s not an unfixable problem, but Coors Field is wildly generous to players who can put the ball in play, so every extra whiff hurts.

Oh yeah… the Rockies signed Bryant, and he’ll figure into the third base picture too. Though his positional versatility is one of the best parts of his game, Colorado plans to mainly play him in left field. “Mainly” isn’t the same as “always,” though, and we think he’ll get his fair share of time on the infield dirt, which will look quite different from McMahon’s time there. Bryant is an average defender and has contact issues of his own, but when he makes contact, it’s party time. His swing generates ideal loft, the outfield in Denver is the size of Yellowstone National Park, and the combination of those two things is going to lead to a heaping helping of extra-base hits.

With those two the headliners, Welker will have to settle for scraps of playing time. His path to an expanded role is vanishingly thin; I think the Rockies will likely shift Bryant to third full-time if McMahon goes down, and McMahon would stop moonlighting at second and shortstop if Bryant gets hurt. Sure, he’s projected for more time at third than Bryant — but I think that in practice, he’s likely to get squeezed out.

Starting with Clerks and continuing through and Dogma, Smith’s irreverent slacker vibe endeared… oh, not that Kevin Smith, totally my bad. The baseballing Smith is an interesting prospect who will receive a trial by fire in Oakland this year. The strikeout rate might be gnarly – we’re projecting it at 28% – but he has enough power to make up for it, and his batted ball metrics were the best in the Toronto system last year before he scuffled in a brief major league call-up.

Oakland has a history with power-first third basemen, and Smith has one of the key tools to make that work: good defense. He primarily played shortstop in the minors, and while he was only okay there, acceptable shortstops make good third basemen. If he can keep his strikeout rate down, he should be a solid contributor, though still a meaningful step down from Matt Chapman.

The rest of the third base situation feels very Oakland-y. Neuse left the A’s for the Dodgers in 2021, but he’s back in the fold and provides a nice backup dose of what Smith should bring; power and strikeouts in equal measure. Pinder has a similar skill set, though he’ll also be busy playing the outfield. Yes, Oakland has a type – and they all play third base. Having so many bites at the finding-a-third-baseman apple should work out, even if it will come with a pile of empty at-bats.

Just what you’d expect atop a third base depth chart: a first baseman and a shortstop. The natural move for the Phillies this offseason was to take advantage of the universal DH by shifting Rhys Hoskins there and moving Bohm to first, but circumstances conspired against them; their two big free agent acquisitions are both DH types. That means Bohm will have to fake third base again, and while he wasn’t a complete disaster in the field last year, his hitting fell apart. A .305 OBP doesn’t cut it unless you’re Matt Chapman with the glove, and… yeah.

While we don’t think Bohm will get to his prodigious raw power, we do think he’ll hit much better than he did last year. That stems largely from average power; he had plenty of hard-hit outs last year, so even repeating last year’s contact quality would go a long way here. That offense should be enough to keep him starting at the position over Stott, the team’s top prospect. Or maybe he’ll need to hold the position over Gregorius, who will be without an obvious home if Stott stays at his natural shortstop position. Gregorius was capital-A abysmal at short last year, and we actually project his defense to be worse than Bohm’s, which limits his appeal. This should mostly be Bohm’s job — if he can right the ship offensively and keep it from sinking defensively.

Wisdom – Patty Smarts to his adoring fans – struck out 40% of the time last year and still put up a 115 wRC+. That’s truly impressive, but also hard to repeat. We expect the strikeouts to persist more so than the power, but even with a projected 36% K rate, his offensive numbers look shockingly passable. If you hit the ball hard enough, you don’t have to make contact very often to pile up the value. That doesn’t mean that Wisdom is a lock to have a good season, but thanks to Statcast, we can say with great confidence that his power isn’t fake. There are no two ways about it; he absolutely demolished the ball last year.

Wisdom probably won’t suddenly improve his contact skills at age 30, but even if he doesn’t, he’s neck and neck with Villar for the best option the Cubs have. Villar will be needed elsewhere on the diamond; he’s the primary backup at shortstop and second base, so Wisdom will mostly have the run of third while Villar is playing luxury utilityman. Bote appears to be the odd man out here; he’s struggled mightily for the last two years and the infield is getting crowded. He might be the Cubs’ best option to get OBP out of third base, but if he doesn’t rebound quickly, his playing time will soon evaporate.

Rojas was a trendy hitter as an Astros prospect, and his model-darling game propelled him to a full-time role in the majors last year. He promptly struck out a lot, which was unexpected given his minor league pedigree, but he walked and doubled enough to end up with an average batting line. One reason he was a model darling rather than a scouts-and-stats-in-harmony stud is that he doesn’t have premium power on contact, a shortcoming that showed up last year. Excellent plate discipline only goes so far when pitchers aren’t afraid to come after you.

This year, the Snakes hope that a steady defensive home will help buoy Rojas’ offense. He started 10 games at five different positions last year, with third base the least frequent of the group, but that was more accident than design. We think he’ll have a steady job this year, but it would be a waste of his skill set not to move him around intermittently.

When the team does that, a wide array of maybe’s will step in. All four of the other options have obvious shortcomings, either defensively or with a bat in their hands. Realistically, the Diamondbacks are hoping that one of these five players seizes a starting job – or two of them, given that Rojas can line up all over the place defensively.

2021 was a lost season for Moustakas. He missed most of the year with injury and hit poorly when he did play. If he can stay on the field this year, he’ll likely provide Cincinnati with the patented Moustakas output: plenty of fly balls, a bit of power, and fewer strikeouts than you’d expect from a hitter so reliant on home runs for his value. Solano will give Moustakas a breather from time to time; his utility infielder stylings will fill holes across the diamond for a Cincinnati team otherwise light on competent backups, though he’ll start the season on the IL.

That’s what the Reds have now, but given their offseason teardown, neither is unlikely to contribute to their next playoff squad. That honor falls to Moran and Farmer. Moran lost his third base spot to Ke’Bryan Hayes in Pittsburgh, but he was a butcher defensively there when he played; he’ll need to either hit more or field better, though the Reds should definitely see whether he can achieve one or the other. Farmer is the everyday starter at shortstop; he might end up holding down third if displaced from that job, though.

The most onomatopoetic name of this writeup, Kieboom’s star has fallen mightily since he was Washington’s top prospect several years ago. His 400 PA in the majors have been awful, and while he’s been productive in the minors, eventually you have to do it in the big leagues. The tools are absolutely there, though: he boasts plus power, contact skills, and a decent approach at the plate. He’s also a good defender; I never bought him as a shortstop, but he has the arm and range to play a solid third. The start of Kieboom’s season won’t come soon, though: an elbow injury landed him on the 60-day IL, and he likely won’t return before May.

Franco will hold down the fort until Kieboom returns, but if I were the Nationals, I’d use Kieboom as often as possible when healthy, more or less regardless of results. The team isn’t going to be a good this year; finding out what you have in your touted prospect takes precedence over getting a .290 OBP from a minor league free agent. Perhaps that’s overly harsh to Franco, who combines hellacious bat speed with a swing-first approach that results in a multitude of poor contact on tough pitches. When Kieboom misses time, sure, use Franco – but given Kieboom’s bona fides, giving time to middling veterans over him would be a travesty for a rebuilding team.

You know what they say: if you have six third basemen, that probably means you don’t have any good third basemen. The depth chart here is fragmented because the Orioles don’t have an obvious incumbent, which means they’ll throw a lot of players at the wall and see what sticks. Gutierrez has the inside track on the job, having finished last season with it, but his bat is a question mark. He’ll need to grow into his power potential to become a solid regular; he has top-shelf exit velocities when he squares the ball up, but that simply hasn’t happened enough in his career so far.

If he can’t handle it, maybe someone else can. Mateo and Urías will each get a chance to play third when the other is playing shortstop, Bannon will likely get an extended look if he stays afloat in Triple-A, and Owings and Nevin might soak up playing time if none of the others seize the job. I’m most interested in Nevin; he was an intriguing prospect before a down 2021, and while he might not have the defensive chops to handle the position long-term, I could see his combination of solid contact skills and acceptable power producing a starter-caliber bat. That, of course, is also true of Gutierrez, but don’t worry, Orioles fans: there are plenty of at-bats to be had for anyone who produces at a high level this year.