Archive for Featured

Keston Hiura Versus the Regression Monster

Keston Hiura hit 38 home runs last year. There are qualifications to that statement, sure — 19 of those home runs came in the homer-happy PCL, and the majors weren’t much better when it came to mass dingerization. But still — Keston Hiura, who hit 13 home runs in 535 plate appearances in 2018, hit 38 home runs in 2019. What did he do to become such a great power hitter, and should we expect to see it again in 2020?

The first place you’d generally look, when considering an outlandish result like this, is for something wildly unsustainable. Maybe he turned half of his fly balls into home runs, and we can just point at that and move on. Indeed, Hiura’s HR/FB% was a juicy 24.1% in the majors last season, and an even more preposterous 36.5% in Triple-A.

Let’s throw out the Triple-A numbers for now. The combination of a new stadium in San Antonio and a wildly changed offensive environment makes putting those home runs into context difficult, so we’ll simply focus on the major league numbers. Non-pitchers hit home runs on 15.4% of their fly balls in 2019. Lower Hiura’s 24.1% to average, and he would have lost out on seven home runs. Easy peasy, let’s get lunch… right?

Well, yeah, not so much. I prefer to look at a different denominator: balls hit with between 15 and 45 degrees of launch angle rather than “fly balls.” That adds some line drives, which are potential home runs, and removes balls hit at too high of an angle to get out. Hiura had 83 of those in 2019, and turned 22.9% of them into homers. The league turned roughly 15% of theirs into dingers. Still the same seven home runs.

But batters aren’t all average. They have control over their home run rates, far more so than pitchers. Regress Hiura’s results in 2019 back towards the mean, and they suggest a true talent home run rate around 20.5%. That would still give him 17 home runs in the majors, not too much worse than his actual production. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 54 Prospects: New York Yankees

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Yankees. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Yankees Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Deivi Garcia 20.8 AAA RHP 2020 55
2 Jasson Dominguez 17.1 R CF 2025 50
3 Kevin Alcantara 17.6 R CF 2023 50
4 Ezequiel Duran 20.8 A- 2B 2022 50
5 Alexander Vargas 18.3 R SS 2023 50
6 Clarke Schmidt 24.0 AA RHP 2020 45+
7 Luis Medina 20.8 A+ RHP 2021 45
8 Estevan Florial 22.3 A+ CF 2020 45
9 Oswald Peraza 19.7 A SS 2021 45
10 Luis Gil 21.8 A+ RHP 2021 45
11 Miguel Yajure 21.8 AA RHP 2021 45
12 Anthony Volpe 18.9 R SS 2024 45
13 Albert Abreu 24.4 AA RHP 2020 40+
14 Antonio Cabello 19.3 R CF 2022 40+
15 Roansy Contreras 20.3 A RHP 2021 40+
16 Oswaldo Cabrera 21.0 A+ 2B 2021 40+
17 Alexander Vizcaino 22.8 A+ RHP 2022 40+
18 Yoendrys Gomez 20.4 A RHP 2021 40+
19 Maikol Escotto 17.8 R 2B 2023 40+
20 Everson Pereira 18.9 A- CF 2022 40+
21 Canaan Smith 20.8 A LF 2022 40+
22 Antonio Gomez 18.3 R C 2024 40+
23 Anthony Seigler 20.7 A C 2023 40+
24 Josh Smith 22.6 A- 2B 2023 40
25 T.J. Sikkema 21.6 A- LHP 2023 40
26 Osiel Rodriguez 18.3 R RHP 2023 40
27 Ryder Green 19.8 R RF 2023 40
28 Nick Nelson 24.2 AAA RHP 2020 40
29 Brooks Kriske 26.1 AA RHP 2020 40
30 Glenn Otto 24.0 A+ RHP 2022 40
31 Josh Breaux 22.4 A C 2022 40
32 Frank German 22.4 A+ RHP 2022 40
33 Michael King 24.8 MLB RHP 2020 40
34 Raimfer Salinas 19.2 R CF 2023 40
35 Anthony Garcia 19.5 R RF 2023 40
36 Trevor Stephan 24.3 AA RHP 2021 40
37 Marcos Cabrera 18.4 R 3B 2023 40
38 Denny Larrondo 17.8 R RHP 2024 40
39 Thairo Estrada 24.0 MLB SS 2020 40
40 Alan Mejia 18.6 R CF 2023 35+
41 Garrett Whitlock 23.7 AA RHP 2021 35+
42 Yoljeldriz Diaz 18.6 R RHP 2023 35+
43 Roberto Chirinos 19.5 R SS 2022 35+
44 Randy Vasquez 21.3 R RHP 2022 35+
45 Alfredo Garcia 20.6 A LHP 2021 35+
46 Matt Sauer 21.1 A RHP 2022 35+
47 Nicio Rodriguez 20.5 R RHP 2022 35+
48 Madison Santos 20.5 R CF 2023 35+
49 Jake Agnos 21.8 A- LHP 2023 35+
50 Anderson Munoz 21.6 A RHP 2022 35+
51 Dayro Perez 18.1 R SS 2023 35+
52 Chris Gittens 26.1 AA 1B 2020 35+
53 Ken Waldichuk 22.2 R LHP 2023 35+
54 Nelson L Alvarez 21.7 R RHP 2023 35+
Reading Options
Detail Level
Data Only
Full
Position Filter
All

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 20.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 163 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 70/70 45/50 40/50 91-95 / 97

There are workload worries surrounding Garcia because he’s 5-foot-9, 165 pounds, and, more relevantly, saw his walk rates spike last year. But one could argue there’s a selection bias for height in the pitching population, perhaps one that’ll melt away as we keep learning about approach angle, and, because part of the formula for torque (which could theoretically be used as a measure of stress on the elbow) is the distance from the fulcrum, that longer-armed, usually taller pitchers might actually be more of an injury risk than a little guy like Deivi. It’s unusual to project heavily on the command of a Triple-A pitcher but it isn’t strange to do so on that of a 20-year-old, so even if there are some growing pains related to Garcia’s fastball command it’s good to remember he’s the age of most college pitchers in this year’s draft.

Garcia has big stuff. He works 91-95, mostly at the top of the zone when he’s locating, and backs up that pitch with a knee-buckling, old school 12-to-6 curveball that has big depth and bite. He sells his changeup by mimicking his fastball’s arm speed but doesn’t create great movement on that pitch right now. A better third offering during the early part of his career will probably be his mid-80s slider, though that will be more dependent on command to play. It’s possible for a starter to be a 55 when they only throw 120 or fewer innings (Brandon Woodruff and Blake Snell did it last year) but it’s much easier if you inch closer to 140. We may find out about Garcia’s ability to do that in 2020 if the Yankees increase his innings as they have the last two years, or the big club may need to stick him in a lower-volume role immediately.

50 FV Prospects

2. Jasson Dominguez, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 17.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 194 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/55 60/65 25/60 70/70 45/55 60/60

There’s as much industry intrigue surrounding Dominguez as there is interest in a Yankee-obsessed public because so few scouts have seen him at all, and even fewer have seen him against live pitching. One director told me Dominguez is impossible to evaluate for a list like this, while a former GM told me he was too low. The Yankees spent almost all but $300,000 of their initial $5.4 million international pool on Dominguez. He is a hyper-sculpted, switch-hitting athlete who could fit at a number of defensive positions, probably either second base or center field. He has plus tools across the board, including power from both sides of the plate. Dominguez has also largely been seen in workouts and not against live, high-quality pitching, so we don’t know much about his feel to hit, but the swing elements are there. There’s perhaps some Mike Mamula risk here, and Dominguez is physically mature for a recent J2, but I don’t know of another 16-year-old on the planet with tools this loud, and struggle to think of a historical example.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/60 20/55 60/55 45/55 55/55

Athletic 6-foot-6 outfielders who can rotate like Alcantara can are rare, and this young man might grow into elite power at maturity. He is loose and fluid in the box but does have some swing and miss issues, though it’s not because lever length is causing him to be late — it’s more of a barrel accuracy issue right now. This is one of the higher ceiling teenagers in the minors, but of course Alcantara might either take forever to develop or never develop at all.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 20.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 35/55 40/35 40/45 45/45

Duran bounced back after his horrendous 2018 and hit for power in the Penn League as a 20-year-old. He’s a stocky guy who only really fits at second base, and as he continues to age he’ll likely only be able to stay there with the aid of good defensive positioning. But boy, does he have power. Whether his contact and approach issues will hinder his ability to get to it in games is debatable. If he overcomes them, he has everyday ability.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (NYY)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 35/50 20/40 60/60 45/60 50/55

Most teams had multi-million dollar evaluations on Vargas while he was an amateur based on how he looked in workouts. He ran a 6.4 60-yard dash, had electric infield actions and a plus arm, as well as surprising ability to hit despite his stature, at the time weighing just 143 pounds. He was twitchy, projectable, looked fantastic at shortstop, and was old enough to sign immediately. The Reds were interested but needed Vargas to wait until the following signing period to get the deal done, so the Yankees swooped in with comparable money and got it done sooner.

Vargas’ name was often the first one out of the mouths of scouts who saw New York’s talented group in the DSL, and he was one of several the Yankees promoted stateside in the summer. He’s a potential impact defender at short who also has uncommon bat control for such a young switch-hitter.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from South Carolina (NYY)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 55/60 50/55 45/50 45/50 91-95 / 96

Schmidt throws four average or better pitches and enough strikes to start. Both breaking balls play up against righties because of Schmidt’s rather funky delivery, but the arm action also creates some fear about his long-term health, and those fears are supported by his college injury history. He profiles as a No. 4 starter.

45 FV Prospects

7. Luis Medina, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/70 60/70 45/55 35/45 94-98 / 100

Medina appeared to grow into a starter’s control throughout last year. In his first nine starts, he tossed 35 innings, walked 41 batters, and threw 53% of his pitches for strikes. His next five starts included 23 innings, 14 walks, and 57% strikes. His final eight starts were incredible: 45 innings, 63 strikeouts, and just 15 walks. 60% of those pitches were strikes. Mixed into the back half of his season were still some clunky four and five walk outings, so is this trend a sign of things to come or just a blip in a sample too small to trust?

Medina’s stuff is fantastic and has been for a while. He was up to 96 mph as a 15-year-old amateur, eventually going unsigned on July 2nd due in part to his horrendous command. Then he hit 100 mph as an amateur with improved feel, which is when the Yankee scooped him up for $300,000. He still sits 94-98, has hit 101 mph, has a dominant power curveball that’s projects as a plus-plus pitch, and his sinking changeup moves enough to miss bats when it’s located competitively. The highest walk rates among qualified big league starters are in the 9-11% range, which is where Medina’s walk rates were during the second half of 2019. Reds righty Luis Castillo (10%) is a dominant, two-pitch template for Medina’s projected ceiling, and unless he once again becomes prone to nuclear strike-throwing meltdowns, his stuff will play in high-leverage relief.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Haiti (NYY)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 60/60 40/55 70/70 45/50 80/80

Florial is officially in the Franchy Cordero Zone, wielding several high-end physical tools, the development of which have been at the mercy of injuries and strikeout issues. He missed a chunk of 2018 with a fractured right hamate then suffered a non-displaced fracture of the right wrist that cost him April and May of 2019. He struggled when he returned, and had an OBP just beneath .300 across 74 Hi-A games, whiffing 33% of the time. It’s correct to be weary of Florial because of the strikeouts and injuries — despite having the physical ability of a top 10 overall prospect, Florial has existed in the 45-50 FV tiers his entire pro career because of the K’s — but it’s too early to be dismissive of or fatigued by his stagnant development. He’s still just 22 and over the course of 140 games at Hi-A as a 20- and 21-year-old, Florial’s .250/.330/.380 line is actually above the Florida State League average.

And he seems to have done at least some of that while undergoing a swing change. Florial’s older swing was stiff-wristed (I’m unsure if it had to do with, or was because of, the injuries) and long, and he was often beaten by fastballs near the top of the strike zone and and swung well inside on soft stuff away from him. His newer swing enables him to get around pitches better and his groundball rate dropped for the second straight season last year. What’s more, his minor league spray chart, per Baseball Savant, showed less contact peppering the shortstop area and third base line. His TrackMan data indicates the strength and power were intact coming off of the wrist injury. All of this is evidence that Florial remains a talented work in progress capable of making adjustments, which he clearly needs to continue doing.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 176 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 40/45 30/45 60/60 55/60 55/55

Peraza has emerged from a group of prospects who, on last year’s list, we evaluated as likely utility or second division regular types, including Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera, Thairo Estrada, and Pablo Olivares. All are smaller, contact-oriented hitters with good feel for the game and up-the-middle defensive profiles. Now Peraza is a plus shortstop defender with what looks like a future plus hit tool. Plus, he’s only 19 and his exit velocities are beginning to climb. There are lots of infielders in this system with a frame similar to Gleyber Torres‘, stout and strong, and that’s the way Peraza is tracking. It limits the raw power projection, but if Peraza’s rate of contact holds up, he’s going to hit for power by virtue of the quality and amount of contact he’s making. He’s tracking like a lot of the contact-oriented shortstops currently toward the back of the overall Top 100, and is a potential regular.

10. Luis Gil, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/60 40/50 30/40 93-97 / 99

Gil’s velvety smooth delivery belies his control problems, which are concerning and will likely banish him to the bullpen. Mechanical ease is often an indicator for scouts to project on command/control but there are Neftalí Feliz sorts of exceptions, and I think that’s what we’ve got here. The effortlessness with which Gil generates upper-90s heat is unbelievable, but his release point waivers and he walks guys.

His presence on the 40-man makes it more likely Gil gets fast-tracked as a reliever, though he should continue starting a) just in case things click, because the ceiling is huge if it does and b) the reps will help sharpen his secondary stuff, which is good but not quite as good as his dominant fastball. There are very few big league pitchers with this combo of velocity and spin and a bunch of them throw cutters. Gil’s heater had a 20% swinging strike rate last year and would probably be harder if he were in the bullpen. He’s going to have a dominant offering that I think eventually spearheads a high-leverage relief future.

11. Miguel Yajure, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/50 50/55 55/60 50/60 91-95 / 97

He looked like a cutter/changeup pitchability guy a year ago, but Yajure has since enjoyed a velo spike and was bumping some 97s late last summer as he climbed all the way to Double-A. A Yankees source credits the velo bump to a foundation laid during Yaure’s 2017 Tommy John rehab. Additionally, Yajure’s changeup has become a plus pitch. It’s a firm, sinking offering in the upper-80s. He works his cutter away from righties for swings and misses, and can dump his curveball in for strikes the second and third time through the order to get ahead of hitters with something new. His huge 60-inning workload increase from 2018 to 2019 was a bit surprising, and assuming Yajure doesn’t come out of the chute sitting 88-92 from the aftershocks of that uptick, he’s tracking like a 50 FV arm.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Delbarton HS (NJ) (NYY)
Age 18.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 50/50 50/55 55/55

The steadiest infield defender among the high schoolers in the 2019 Draft, Volpe compared similarly to Oakland A’s shortstop Nick Allen when he was a high schooler. Volpe will likely be a plus shortstop defender — his feet, hands, and actions are all plus, his range is average — and has good feel for contact, but he lacks both strength and the physical projection that enables teams to anticipate strength will come. Keep in mind this is what Peraza’s scouting report read like last year, and he appears poised to make so much contact as to render his relatively modest raw power projection irrelevant. That path is the one Volpe could take toward an everyday role, but it’s more likely that he ends up a glove-first utility type.

40+ FV Prospects

13. Albert Abreu, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 55/60 55/60 55/60 40/40 95-99 / 101

Abreu’s 2019 was like any other year. He missed time with a strained bicep (he’s now had elbow and/or shoulder issues for three straight years), but still made 23 appearances averaging just under five innings per outing, a 30-inning increase from 2018. And Abreu’s stuff remains incredible — 94-99 as a starter, 70-grade changeup, two good breaking balls — but strike-throwing consistency has never materialized here, and he projects as a nasty bullpen piece. He’d be a 45 FV if not for the multi-year injury history.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 19.3 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 55/55 30/50 65/60 45/50 55/55

It’s ironic that the Yankees didn’t want to slow down Cabello’s bat development by asking him to catch (he did as an amateur, and his build and arm strength are both visual fits behind the plate). Instead, his offensive development stalled on its own. Most of the physical tools are intact, Cabello’s swing just looked out of whack, and he was coming off of a dislocated shoulder that truncated his 2019. His front side was leaking way down the third base line (which happened during his incredible 2018, too), and his swing was described as long to me, which is odd for a hitter this size.

This is still a rare blend of skills, especially if catching is ever revisited. Cabello still runs well, and last year he inspired one of my favorite scout quotes of all time when I was told that he has a “grinding gait, full effort, kicking up grass as he runs like the rooster tail of a speed boat.” In addition to potential plus hit and run tools, there’s above-average arm strength, and what was billed as above-average raw power that hasn’t shown in the exit velos yet. Though Cabello’s top end exits are still good for his age, his averages are not good for someone as physically developed as he is, a piece of evidence that supports the visual assessment of his swing. Still, I’m not out after one bad year, and think Cabello has everyday physical ability.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 45/50 92-95 / 96

Not only did Contreras hold his stuff over a longer season (he threw more than twice as many affiliated innings in 2019 as he did in 2018) but his velo was actually up a tick, and his walk rate came down, too. We’re not talking about premium arm strength, but Contreras should end up with three quality offerings (intentionally or not, he can vary the shape of his breaking ball enough that he functionally has four) and plenty of strike-throwing ability to start. Barring continued development of his changeup, which already looks better than we projected a year ago, he won’t have a plus pitch and therefore fits in the No. 4/5 starter area rather than as a plus, mid-rotation type.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 21.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 145 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 40/45 20/40 50/50 45/50 50/50

Cabrera went from looking physically overpowered at Charleston in 2018 to generating one of the org’s top exit velocities in 2019. He added mass in his lower half and traded some contact for power, resulting in 29 doubles. It will be interesting to see how Cabrera’s new physicality interacts with his defensive fit. He has some of the best defensive hands in the entire org and should at least be a shift-aided multi-positional infielder even if he continues to thicken and slow.

Cabrera sometimes swings at suboptimal pitches because he can move the bat head around and make contact with pitches all over the place, but this will limit his OBP and power output if it continues. He’s got a shot to be an everyday player of some kind but it’s more likely he becomes a super utility infielder.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 60/70 35/40 93-97 / 98

A velo bump and uptick in changeup quality (he now has one of the nastier cambios in the minors) were the cornerstones of a 2019 breakout for Vizcaino, who was promoted to Hi-A Tampa for his final five starts of the year. While he now has 70-grade fastball velocity, his long arm action and three quarters slot create sinking action on the pitch that ends up generating groundballs more than swings and misses. The whiffs are going to come from the changeup, which bottoms out as if a trap door has opened beneath it just as it approaches the plate. At this age, I think the breaking ball refinement necessary to make Vizcaino a starter is unlikely, but I would have said the same thing about his fastball and changeup last year.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 40/50 40/55 93-96 / 98

The baseball gods gave Yoendrys Gomez a velo bump, which is like giving an Austrian composer a Les Paul. A year ago, Gomez was being described as a pitchability righty who could effectively vary his fastball’s movement. Now he’s touching 98. Talk of the fastball cutting and sinking has stopped and now Gomez is taking a power approach, working his fastball at the top of the zone in concert with a curveball at the bottom. He still needs a weapon to deal with lefty hitters and to repeat his delivery better, something that should come as his limbs fill out. And Gomez has sort of an odd build. His limbs are skinny but his trunk is not, and his shoulders are rounded and pitched forward. It’s perhaps irrelevant because he is already throwing hard, but the build is similar to Jorge Guzman’s, whose strike-throwing hasn’t materialized. Last year Gomez’s stuff looked like it projected to be close to average but now he may end up with at least one plus pitch and the curveball has a shot, too.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 17.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 50/60 25/55 50/40 40/50 60/60

I’d classify the reports on Escotto from my sources who saw DSL action as “mixed/positive.” Once he started generating industry curiosity through his statistical performance, expectations were high for scouts went in to get a look at him and the rest of the Yankees DSL players. Proponents saw big pull power for a teenager, coherent ball/strike recognition, and a 2B/3B defensive future. Detractors saw third base-only, a mature build, a pull-only approach to contact, and some swing length. The power and infield future, regardless of where it is, is enough to like Escotto more than Josh Breaux (if you think he’s a first baseman, certainly) and the powerful corner outfield types in this org.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 18.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 50/50 20/50 55/55 45/55 55/55

He was viewed as a polished hitter with middling tools as an amateur but Pereira swung through a lot of pitches in the zone last year, albeit in a small statistical sample and at a level much higher than is typical for a hitter his age. Pereira went to the Penn League as an 18-year-old and whiffed in over a third of his paltry 74 plate appearances before injuring his ankle and getting shelved for the summer. His swing seemed more uphill than it was before he signed, and he’s the first of several recent prominent amateurs on this list dealing with developmental growing pains. 2019 was basically a wash for Pereira, who had a reasonable shot to be an everyday center fielder just 12 months ago.

21. Canaan Smith, LF
Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from Rockwall Heath HS (TX) (NYY)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 35/55 40/40 40/45 45/45

Smith body comps to late-career Kirby Puckett, just at 6-feet tall instead of 5-foot-8. He’s a tank, the absolute unit, a lefty-hitting thumper with the most fully actualized combination of game power and approach on this entire list. Smith went to full-season ball as a young 20-year-old last season and raked. His hitting hands work such that Smith pushes a lot of contact the other way, and he’s so strong that he often whacks those for extra bases. Smith also has an intelligent approach and advanced ball/strike recognition. His power demands that pitchers work him carefully and Smith has been exploiting this fact since high school. It’s a left field profile (Smith runs well underway but at his size at this age, he’s moving to a corner) but the requisite raw power and on base skills for that seem to be here.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 20/45 30/20 40/50 80/80

Gomez stood out as a 15-year-old because of his one, truly freakish ability: he has a stone-cold 80 arm (clocked in the mid-80’s with a radar gun) and a quick release that allow him to regularly post pop times below 1.80 in games, which is generally a 70-grade time. Gomez is a mature-bodied prospect and a 30 runner presently, someone who appears “unathletic” on the surface. We often talk about football and baseball athleticism as being two different things, and Gomez is not football athletic, but he definitely is baseball athletic. Instead of timed speed or visible strength, he displays quick-twitch movement, first step quickness, and overall explosion through strength in the forearms, wrists, and hands. Gomez is an ideal case study in the differences, as he’s got soft hands and is mobile behind the plate, and has solid average raw power with similarly graded bat control. The Yankees may have a 5 defensive catcher with a 5 bat, 5 raw power, and an 8 arm here. That would be quite a find for $600,000, especially given the current wasteland that is big league catching.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Cartersville HS (GA) (NYY)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / S FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/45 30/35 45/40 50/55 60/60

Since signing, Seigler has been snakebitten by various injuries and has barely even played, catching just over 40 games in parts of two seasons amid hamstring and quad issues, a concussion, and a fractured patella. This was once the most interesting prospect on the planet, a baseball oddity: a switch-hitting catcher who was also an ambidextrous reliever. Unlikely to develop relevant power, Seigler needs to actualize both his high school contact skills and ball/strike recognition to make enough offensive impact to play every day. But right now the goal is just for him to play every day at all.

40 FV Prospects

24. Josh Smith, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from LSU (NYY)
Age 22.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 30/45 50/50 45/50 55/55

Smith hit a career .313/.420/.478 at LSU and had a huge summer on Cape Cod after his freshman year. A stress reaction in his back nixed his sophomore campaign, including the Cape, but he returned and allayed any concerns about his back remaining an issue. Though not especially toolsy, Smith is a capable infield defender with an advanced approach and above-average feel for the barrel. He plays really hard and is procedurally polished. His pathway to becoming an everyday player likely involves him developing a plus or better bat, but he’s a high-floor infielder who should play a key bench role at least.

25. T.J. Sikkema, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Missouri (NYY)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 221 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 40/50 45/55 90-94 / 95

Sikkema is lower slot, sinker/slider/changeup pitchability lefty who projects to the back of a rotation. He was up to 95 pre-draft but was more 90-92 after he signed.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (NYY)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
30/60 45/55 50/60 45/55 35/50 86-89 / 90

Rodriguez was shut down for almost all of 2019 and was only sitting 86-90 when he threw, his body got soft. This comes after he had a pretty long track record of chucking 94-97 in international competition. He pitched as a 14-year-old for the 15-and-under Cuban team, and posted a 69 IP, 32 H, 2 XBH, 20 BB, 102 K line for that squad. The ceiling here is still higher than the relief-only types who follow on this list because I’m not as certain Rodriguez can’t start as I am the Kriske/Otto sorts, though if the velo isn’t back (I’m told it is, that Rodriguez is throwing hard right now) he belongs beneath them.

27. Ryder Green, RF
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Karns HS (TN) (NYY)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/70 35/55 55/50 45/50 60/60

The tightly-wound Green has filled out and gotten a little stiffer since he was signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment for just shy of $1 million in the 2018 draft, but he now also has two solid years of statistical performance under his belt, an important feather in the cap of a prospect who had strikeout issues in high school. He still strikes out a lot, but we can point to two seasons of promising plate discipline results from him, and his speed gives him a shot to stay in center field, both of which make the whiffing less worrisome. He remains a high variance power/speed prospect with the arm for right field should he need to move.

28. Nick Nelson, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Gulf Coast JC (FL) (NYY)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 40/50 45/55 40/45 92-95 / 97

There’s clearly still some breaking ball tinkering going on here, but Nelson has about average raw breaking ball spin and should end up with a viable big league version of some kind given time. For a 24-year-old, he hasn’t been pitching that long, as he didn’t focus exclusively on pitching until he got to his JUCO. If the breaker and another half grade of control fail to develop, Nelson should still end up as a bullpen stalwart. He sat 94-97 as a starter for a while and that velo may come back if he’s pitching in relief. Plus, his splitter is already an out pitch.

29. Brooks Kriske, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from USC (NYY)
Age 26.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/60 40/40 92-96 / 98

Kriske was the last pitcher added to the Yankees’ 40-man last offseason, presumably chosen over top Rule 5 Draft pick Rony Garcia, in case you were wondering if this org has pitching depth. Kriske was a standard, two-pitch middle relief prospect until he added a splitter last year. He sits 92-96 (which is up from a couple of years ago) and his fastball has plus-plus carry and life (it generated a 16% swinging strike rate last year). He had an average, two-plane slurve and now has a big league out pitch in the split.

30. Glenn Otto, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2017 from Rice (NYY)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 35/40 92-94 / 96

Otto was a reliever at Rice (winces) who the Yankees wanted to develop a changeup and try to start, but he missed nearly the whole 2018 season with blood clot issues in his shoulder. He was up to 98 mph and flashed a 70 curveball in short stints before the injury, then last year was sitting 92-94, albeit with other traits (spin rate and axis) that enabled it to play better than that. Otto’s arm action is NC-17 violent but his is a relief profile anyway.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from McLennan JC (TX) (NYY)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/65 30/50 30/30 40/45 65/65

Cue the Pete O’Brien comps. Breaux is a very physical hitter with huge raw power, red flag peripherals, and stuff that might prevent him from catching. When he was a two-way JUCO prospect, he was in the upper-90s on the mound. A sore elbow cost him a bunch of 2019 and may also have sapped some of his arm strength, depending on when you saw him. Even a fully operational Breaux has some footwork and exchange issues that can slow his release or impact throw accuracy. He’s a relatively inexperienced defender so those things may still come, but if not then the K/BB stuff needs to improve because we’re talking about a 1B/DH.

32. Frank German, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from North Florida (NYY)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 40/50 45/50 40/45 92-96 / 98

German was a solid middle-round college pitching prospect going into the 2018 draft, with most clubs treating him as a sixth to eighth round talent who could possibly be a target for the 11th-12th rounds and a $125,000 bonus, as cheap senior signs fill in the latter stages of the top 10 rounds. Then German (Dominican-born and whose name is pronounced like the European country) had one of the latest pre-draft velo spikes possible, suddenly hitting 95 mph during the Atlantic Sun conference tournament in his final college game just two weeks before Day One. Miles per hour are a dime a dozen these days, but German had the athleticism and arm action of a starter and had put on about 15 pounds in the previous 12 months, so some thought this could be coming. Clubs who had scouts at that final start shot him up their boards, and the Yankees jumped to the front of the line to take him in the fourth round.

The velo spike held throughout German’s first summer in pro ball — he sat 92-95 and touched 97 mph in the fall instructional league, and put on about 10 additional pounds after signing — and then moved yet another tick last year — 93-96, touch 98 — even though German is still starting. The length of his arm action and the gap between where his secondary stuff is (German’s college breaking ball was scrapped, and his changeup is now his best secondary) and what it’d have to be to play several times through the order means German is likely a fastball-heavy reliever.

33. Michael King, RHP
Drafted: 12th Round, 2016 from Boston College (MIA)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/45 45/50 55/60 90-94 / 95

King probably would have graduated from this list last year if not for a stress reaction in his elbow and a subsequent setback during his rehab. He can manipulate the shape of his fastball and locate it where he wants to generate weak contact, but lacks swing-and-miss secondary stuff. This is a low variance fifth starter profile.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 50/55 20/50 60/55 45/55 60/60

For some international scouts, Salinas was ahead of Cabello and Pereira, and was the top prospect in their 2017 signing class; he got the biggest bonus of the group at $1.85 million. Salinas’ 2018 season was ruined by a broken ring finger and knee bursitis that limited him to 11 games; last year he was healthy and just didn’t look great. He’s still a plus runner with a plus arm and a chance for plus defense in center field, but his swing and approach have become questions. It’s too early to move all the way out on him, especially because the injury stole a year of reps, but Salinas is firmly in the high risk hit tool category now.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 70/80 25/60 50/40 40/45 55/55

Garcia missed just about all of the 2019 summer with a quad injury, and scouts’ looks at him during Extended reinforced last year’s report. He’s 6-foot-6, switch-hitting, and if he doesn’t have 80 raw power now, he will in the next few years. For now, he’s an average runner underway, though his first step isn’t great and he’ll lose a step or two with maturity. Garcia has the arm to profile in right field, but down the road, he’ll likely be an average glove there at best and might need to move to first base. There may be some late bloom to the hit tool because we’re talking about a huge switch-hitter, but swing-and-miss will likely always be part of the profile. How much that matters will depend on how much power Garcia is getting to, and his early-career performance is promising on that end. He’s a high-variance corner outfield prospect who might turn into a Steven Moya type, or may hit 40 bombs.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Arkansas (NYY)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/45 40/50 90-94 / 97

Stephan’s cross-bodied delivery compares closely to that of Brewers righty Freddy Peralta, as both get way down the mound (Stephan gets nearly seven feet of extension on his fastballs) and have lower arm slots that make right-handed hitters very uncomfortable. He makes heavy use of a hard slider that at times looks like a cutter. It has enough movement to miss bats if Stephan leaves it in the zone, and he’s been able to back foot it to lefties. I have him in as a middle relief piece but changeup development is arguably still important here because of three-batter minimums taking effect.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 189 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Raw Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 50/45 45/50 60/60

His frame and questionable quickness are strong indicators that Cabrera will move to third base, but more power should also arrive as he fills out and Cabrera is a strong early-career performer with the bat despite his long levers. He’s a power projection third base prospect.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (NYY)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/60 55/60 35/50 35/55 88-92 / 94

He’s only up to 94 right now but Larrondo is long-limbed, projectable, and one of the better athletes in this system. He has among the best 10- and 20-yard sprint splits in the org and played a good center field as an amateur. But Larrondo’s future is on the mound where, still just 17, he has elite fastball and breaking ball spin rates. His delivery is a work in progress, but that’s true of most 17-year-olds. He’s a velo spike away from climbing this list.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 24.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 45/45 30/40 60/55 45/50 55/55

Estrada rose as high as the 45 FV tier on this list before tumbling after he looked sluggish in the aftermath of a pair of surgeries (the first was botched, the second took place months after) to remove a bullet lodged in his thigh when teens shot him during an attempted robbery in Venezuela. The contact rates from his peak value days were gone last year, and Estrada now looks like more of a fifth infielder than a premium utility or low-end regular.

35+ FV Prospects

40. Alan Mejia, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Mejia is yet another of the several interesting prospects the Yankees moved from the DSL to the GCL in the middle of the summer. He’s a medium-framed center field prospect with more present power than you’d expect for someone his size. He’s seen time in the corners because of the presence of other center field prospects, and has some contact issues that need remedying, but the base of tools and athleticism was appealing to scouts who saw him in the DSL at the start of the season.

Drafted: 18th Round, 2017 from UAB (NYY)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/50 50/55 92-95 / 96

The Yankees moved Whitlock up the ladder very quickly in 2018, and he looked like a soon-to-be backend starter or swingman sort based on his ability to locate an average sinker/slider/changeup mix. Then he blew out his UCL in the middle of last summer and had surgery. Whitlock began throwing in January but will miss most (if not all) of 2020 and is likely on track to compete for a spot on the staff in 2021, when he’ll be nearly 25.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 18.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 35/55 50/60 40/45 35/50 90-92 / 93

He’s not especially lanky or big-framed but Diaz is a plus on-mound athlete with an athletic build, clean arm action, and plus-flashing curveball.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 19.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/50 20/40 45/40 40/50 60/60

Chirinos’ 2019 line was much more in line with his tools than his pro debut. After the Yankees moved him around to various positions in an instructional setting, he started seeing time all over the infield in actual games last year, and some scouts think his body, arm strength, and toughness would be an interesting fit at catcher, even in a part-time capacity. Realistically he profiles as a utility infielder, but the catching possibility is intriguing.

44. Randy Vasquez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 55/60 40/45 40/45 90-94 / 95

A college-aged spin rate monster who pitched in the Pulaski rotation last year, Vasquez’s realistic projection is in the bullpen, where his fastball velo would theoretically tick up and he could rely more heavily on his tornadic curveball. His size and 40-man timeline both funnel him toward the ‘pen, too.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (COL)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/50 50/55 40/45 90-94 / 95

Garcia was in the midst of a breakout 2019 when the Rockies dealt him to the Yankees for big league-ready reliever Joe Harvey, who was on the 40-man fringe for New York. Even though he had pitched well at Low-A Asheville, the Rockies demoted Garcia to the Pioneer League not long before they traded him. He’s a big-framed lefty with average stuff, though the changeup is often above and projects to be his best pitch.

46. Matt Sauer, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Righetti HS (CA) (NYY)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 40/50 35/45 92-95 / 96

Sauer experienced wild fluctuations in stuff as an amateur and first-year pro, which reinforced concerns about his somewhat Scherzer-y, violent delivery and culminated in Tommy John surgery last April. At his best, Sauer will sit 93-95 (he was up to 96 in his two outings before the surgery) and pitch with a plus curveball, a two-pitch duo that could close games. If Sauer’s changeup and command improve, he has mid-rotation upside, but he’s barely had pro reps because of injury and it’s more likely he ends up in relief if his stuff comes back. He began throwing off a mound in mid-February.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
45/60 45/55 30/45 89-94 / 96

He struggles to repeat it, but the flexible Rodriguez has a loose, explosive delivery, and he arrived for camp this spring looking much stronger. The skinnier version sat in the low-90s last year and his fastball has high-end spin. I have him projected in a two-pitch relief role, and he’ll move up the list once the velo does, which, considering the shape Rodriguez was in when he reported, might be this summer.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 20.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 45/50 30/40 70/70 45/55 55/55

Santos is a toolsy, frustrating prospect with above-average bat speed. His swing is often unbalanced and his weight is often forward much earlier than it needs to be, but he has the hand talent to make impact contact anyway. He needs considerable polish but the speed and raw power are interesting, and while Santos’ issues are somewhat severe, they’re at least easy to diagnose.

49. Jake Agnos, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2019 from East Carolina (NYY)
Age 21.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 206 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/45 50/55 40/50 88-92 / 93

Agnos was up to 96 during his stint with Team USA but sat 88-92 as a starter the following spring, and that’s where his post-draft velo was as well. Unless the pre-draft summer velo returns (which is more likely if he ends up in the bullpen), Agnos projects as a fifth or sixth starter with three average pitches.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 21.6 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Sits/Tops
55/60 92-95 / 97

Released by Minnesota after a just over a year in the DSL, Munoz is now an interesting, bite-sized arm strength prospect. The Yankees lowered his arm slot last year and he started throwing really hard and throwing strikes. They also gave him a slider rather than curveball. Munoz is likely a relief prospect, but it makes sense to develop him as a starter in hopes that either his slider or changeup become an out pitch.

51. Dayro Perez, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 35/45 20/40 60/60 45/55 60/60

His feel to hit is behind, but Perez is an athletic, no-doubt shortstop with a projectable body, and his swing foundation is workable.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2014 from Grayson JC (TX) (NYY)
Age 26.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 250 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/35 80/80 50/55 30/30 40/40 55/55

A former two-way player who used to tip the scales at a cool three bills, Gittens is now hitting for huge power in the upper levels of the minors. Based on the data I have, he led all minor leaguers in 2019 average exit velo at a whopping 96 mph. Gittens was a 25-year-old repeating Double-A, and he struck out nearly 30% of the time. Those two things make it unlikely that he’ll carve out a big league career, but he might be either a) an interesting depth piece in the event of a bunch of first base injuries (a phenomena the Yankees have dealt with in recent years) or b) a flier for a rebuilding team.

53. Ken Waldichuk, LHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2019 from St. Mary’s (NYY)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 45/50 90-94 / 95

Waldichuk is a loose, lanky lefty who gets way down the mound (he generates nearly seven feet of extension) and has big carry on his fastball. It’s a three-pitch mix that fits in a swingman or long relief role.

Drafted: 13th Round, 2019 from South Florida (NYY)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / r FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 30/40 94-96 / 97

He has a traditional bullpen power arm repertoire but Alvarez is scarily wild and needs to develop a full grade of control to profile at all.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Realistic Bench Pieces
Hoy Jun Park, SS
Kyle Holder, SS
Josh Stowers, CF
Pablo Olivares, CF

Park is 23 and has an average contact/patience profile and 45 raw power. He might be someone’s bench infielder, but the Yankees big league roster is packed. Holder is a plus defensive shortstop who doesn’t do much with the bat. Stowers performed for three years at Lousiville and was red hot leading up to the 2018 draft. The Yankees traded Shed Long Jr. to Seattle for him as part of the Sonny Gray deal with the Reds. He performed last year but I’ve never been on his tools in anything more than a fourth outfielder capacity. Olivares is the contact/defense version of the fourth or fifth outfield profile.

Guys with Big Arm Strength
Justin Wilson, RHP
Braden Bristo, RHP
Elvis Peguero, RHP
Zach Greene, RHP
Wellington Diaz, RHP

Wilson, 23, was at a JUCO and had TJ before his only year at Vanderbilt in 2018. He’s one of the hardest throwers in this system (94-98, touch 99) but has 30 control. Bristo has a 2800 rpm curveball and will touch 95 in relief. Peguero had a huge velo bump last year, sitting 90-93 in 2018 and then 92-96, touch 98 last year. He’s a 6-foot-5 22-year-old with new arm strength, and that’s it right now. Greene was the club’s 2019 ninth rounder from South Alabama and sits just 90-92, but he can really spin it — 2500 rpm with nearly pure backspin. His slider and changeup are both average. Diaz is a hard-throwing sinker guy up to 95.

Pinstriped Thumpers
Jose Martinez, 1B
Isiah Gilliam, LF
Dermis Garcia, 1B
Jacob Sanford, LF

This group is pretty self-explanatory. Martinez, who just turned 21, is playing some third base right now but projects to only to first. He has the best natural feel to hit of this group but he’s pretty filled out for his age and will max out with 55 raw. Gilliam is a switch-hitter with plus raw and some strikeout issues in the outfield; Garcia is that but at first base. Sanford was the team’s 2019 third rounder but I’m not really on him. He’s a stiff lefty outfield bat with plus power and slugged .805 as a junior.

A Total Mess of Other Guys I Like
Enger Castellano, 3B
Jesus Rodriguez, C
Miguel Marte, SS
Nick Paciorek, RHP
Jose Chambuco, RHP
Jhonatan Munoz, RHP
Carlos Narvaez, C

Castellano is a 2019 July 2 signing, one of the few aside from Jasson Dominguez, who occupied most of the bonus pool. Castellano can really rotate, and he’s a relatively positionless bat speed marvel. Rodriguez, 17, had strong DSL numbers in a meaningless 18 games. The carrying tools here are on defense, both the receiving and the arm. Marte has a plus arm, plus speed, and can stick at shortstop, but needs to grow into physicality to hit. Paciorek is a converted catcher up to 97 with an average slider. He might be a relief fit. Chambuco is 17 and just had TJ last week. He’s in the low-90s but has an absolutely vicious curveball. Munoz, 20, is a 6-foot pitchability righty with average stuff. Narvaez, 21, is a slow-twitch catcher with some contact skills and a good frame.

System Overview

In past years, the Yankees System Overview has consisted of a discussion surrounding their Rule 5 losses, their roster equilibrium and 40-man crunch trades, and their deep, multi-roster approach to development in the DSL and GCL. A huge portion of this list was comprised of teenagers last year, a product of player graduations, trades, and the international scouting program’s quality. It’s still a young farm system, with prospects averaging 21 years of age, 0.8 years younger than the rest of the population on The Board.

The dust hasn’t settled on the last couple of international classes nor on the teenage draftees, many of whom have either dealt with injury or poor performance or both. The rate of injury in this system is pretty staggering, actually. How much to weigh poor performance over a small sample, like in the Appy and New York-Penn League, is still unclear; it’s a question I seek to answer with dope from Extended and Instructs. Some of how to handle this issue, not just for me but for actual teams, must be informed by the Yankees’ track record of dev success, which is especially strong for pitchers. Among teams’ full season arms for whom I have TrackMan data, this is the hardest-throwing system (prospects, non-prospects, just dudes in full-season ball all of last year) in all of baseball, with an average fastball velocity of 92.17 mph. Every year guys in this system pop up and throw much harder, which means we really should be looking at players with the traits (beyond the frame) that indicate they’re going to and guess who they might be, but that assumes it’ll happen without whatever magic velo dust the Yanks sprinkle on them.


The Cardinals’ Messy Outfield Situation

Last year’s Cardinals were successful. Thanks to a solid rotation, a good bullpen, and excellent defense and baserunning, St. Louis won the division and advanced to the NLCS. The Cardinals’ main weakness was at the plate, where they were mostly average. Excluding pitchers, the team’s wRC+ for the season was 100, and ranked 14th in the game. The team’s outfield was no exception; the group put up an identical 100 wRC+, which ranked 17th among major league outfields, with their 7.0 WAR occupying that same ranking. Despite allowing Marcell Ozuna to leave in free agency and trading Randy Arozarena and José Martínez to the Rays, the team still has a glut of outfielders competing for roles this spring. They have quantity and they might have quality as well, but sorting out playing time could be a mess.

The Cardinals have three players who accumulated at least 100 plate appearances in the outfield last season. Here’s how those players performed:

Cardinals Returning Outfielders in 2019
Player PA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR WAR/600
Dexter Fowler 574 103 -0.3 1.6 -8.6 1.5 1.6
Harrison Bader 406 81 0.7 -9.3 14.5 1.8 2.7
Tyler O’Neill 151 91 0.1 -1.7 -2.9 0 0

That trio probably doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. Fowler had a bounce-back season, but with an average batting line and most of his time spent in a corner outfield spot, he was slightly below average overall and turns 34 years old before Opening Day. Bader saw his walk rate improve, but hitting in the eighth spot the majority of the time probably helps account for some of that uptick, and might have made Bader too passive. His overall numbers against righties last season were in line with his breakout 2018 at about 10% below league average, but his numbers against lefties plummeted, unusual given he has hit well against them his entire career, including in the minors. Despite Bader’s weak year at the plate, his fantastic defense makes him an above-average player. As for O’Neill, he struggled mightily as a pinch hitter last season; he put up a slightly above-average line as an outfielder and a 116 wRC+ in July in more regular starting duty before he injured his wrist. Given his somewhat inconsistent minor league history — sometimes crushing, sometimes hitting closer to average — it’s fair to say we still don’t know much about O’Neill’s abilities as a hitter against major league pitcher or how he might fare given extended playing time.

So the incumbents, if you want to call them that, consist of an aging, should-be fourth outfielder, a glove-first center fielder, and a 24-year-old with a lot of power and strikeouts who may or may not be capable of starting at an average to above-average level. The outfield situation is emblematic of an offseason that seems to have passed St. Louis by. The Cardinals do have other outfield options in camp, including one of the better prospects in baseball, Dylan Carlson. Here are the 2020 projection for Carlson and a few other options who are in the mix:

Cardinals 2020 Outfield Projections
Player PA OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR WAR/600
Harrison Bader 415 .320 .410 .310 -4.2 1 5.2 1.6 2.3
Dylan Carlson 273 .321 .425 .315 -1.6 -0.1 -0.7 0.7 1.5
Tommy Edman 308 .319 .414 .311 -2.8 1.4 2.4 0.7 1.4
Tyler O’Neill 457 .300 .459 .316 -2.2 0.9 -0.5 0.8 1.1
Dexter Fowler 546 .336 .399 .317 -2.1 0.2 -3.2 0.7 0.8
Lane Thomas 195 .302 .402 .300 -3.7 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6
Austin Dean 7 .318 .438 .319 0 0 -0.1 0 0
Justin Williams 7 .301 .396 .296 -0.2 0 0 0 0

Projections aren’t perfect, but they don’t paint a sunny picture for the Cardinals’ outfield. One of the better projected players is Tommy Edman, and he is a better fit on the infield; he’s likely to be more of a super-utility player this season, which would take him out of a starting role. While Lane Thomas, Austin Dean, and Justin Williams are in the mix for roster spots, Thomas has put up mostly average numbers in Triple-A, Dean is a 26-year-old with defensive issues, and Williams hasn’t been able to put the ball in the air consistently. That leaves four starters for three spots.

Bader plays center field so well, it’s tough to see him not getting the starting spot out there. While O’Neill, Fowler, and Carlson have all shown some ability to play center, those days are mostly behind Fowler, O’Neill has been a corner outfielder for most of his career between the majors and minors, and Carlson might not be a center fielder long-term, as Eric Longenhagen noted in his prospect write-up when he placed Carlson 39th on this year’s Top 100:

Carlson is an average runner and a large dude for a 20-year-old. His instincts in center field are okay, but not good enough to overcome long speed that typically falls short at the position. Because of where we have his arm strength graded, we think he fits in left field or at first base.

So if we put Bader in center at least most of the time, there are two starting spot for Carlson, Fowler, and O’Neill. The projections say Carlson is the better outfielder of the three, and his prospect status indicates his ceiling is probably higher as well. There are going to be some service time considerations; Carlson could be held down in the minors for a few weeks to gain an extra year of service time, though that’s not a tactic that has been used by the Cardinals in the past. Carlson is not yet on the 40-man roster, but that’s an obstacle easily overcome.

A neutral evaluation of the three players would give Carlson one of the remaining corner spots, creating a toss-up between O’Neill and Fowler. While spring stats aren’t indicative of talent level (given the small sample size of plate appearances and the potential disparity in opponents’ skill levels), it should be noted that none of the play so far this spring has served to change the order of the projections, with O’Neill and Carlson producing and Fowler not. It’s reasonable for the Cardinals to want to actually see what they might have in O’Neill; while perhaps less reasonable to play Fowler due to his contract status, it is something that teams do all the time. It’s possible those two factors might be enough to keep Carlson in the minors.

Carlson isn’t a sure thing, but his projections make him out to be a clear rung ahead of the other potential outfielders. The “path of least resistance” so often used by the Cardinals would put the veteran in one corner outfield spot and the young, but uncertain talent already on the 40-man ahead of a top prospect with a high floor. But the Cardinals as a team already have a pretty high floor. It’s the ceiling that is in issue. If the club is going to beat their 82-win projection this season, the outfield provides the biggest opportunity. The outfielder with the lowest ceiling also makes the most money. Dexter Fowler would make a solid fourth outfielder for the Cardinals as the team looks to see just how good a young outfield of Bader, O’Neill, and Carlson could be, but that’s a tough conversation to have with a veteran whose been starting for more than a decade. It’s a bit messy, but in order for the Cardinals to see what they have, they have to play the most promising players who project to have the best performance.


Trevor Bauer Might Have Conducted Another Experiment

In April of 2018, Trevor Bauer conducted an experiment. While he never admitted it, he mysteriously threw the ball with significantly more spin for an inning. Given Bauer’s repeated insistence that adding pine tar or some other equivalent foreign substance could increase his spin rate by 200-300 rpm, and the fact that his spin rate was almost exactly 300 rpm higher in the first inning as compared to the rest, he might as well have winked.

So, uh, let’s talk about last September. The following graph is Bauer’s average four-seam fastball spin rate by game:

Now, I’m not a baseball scientist. But short of Alan Nathan and Meredith Wills and David Kagan, those are in short supply. So I thought I’d conduct a non-rigorous but still curious investigation of these September starts to see if I could get to the bottom of what happened.

Let’s get something out of the way first: my base case, before I started investigating, is that Bauer got back into the sticky stuff. The jump is just so clean, so consistent within each game, that it doesn’t look at all accidental. In a single earlier game, on August 19, Bauer seemingly discovered some spin, posting his then-highest single game average spin rate, just over 2500 rpm. For the rest of 2019, however, he lived between 2250 and 2500 rpm. Then, like magic, every single pitch Bauer threw in September had a spin rate higher than 2500 rpm.

What could cause this, if it isn’t some type of sticky substance? It’s a long shot, but maybe Bauer started cutting the pitch. What does that mean? If you already know, you can skip this section, but I’ll go over it quickly. Picture a tire rolling down the road. Now, picture that same motion by a ball in air, with no road in the way. That’s transverse spin. Picture the baseball with that tire-style spin, with the car in reverse, and you have a 100% spin efficiency fastball. Read the rest of this entry »


The Mets Have a Mismatched Outfield Once Again

It’s only March 2, but between Yoenis Céspedes‘ media blackout, J.D. Davis‘ shoulder scare, and Brandon Nimmo’s irregular heartbeat, the Mets’ outfield has already enlivened the spring with a fair bit of drama and a few eye-catching headlines. Thankfully none those events has turned into a worst-case scenario, and as Opening Day approaches, the unit looks to be a potential source of strength on a contending team — though as ever, it could be a challenge to fit all of the parts together.

Indeed, assembling the pieces into a coherent whole has been a perennial shortcoming for the Mets, even before Brodie Van Wagenen took the reins as general manager; this team hasn’t had a true two-way center fielder — as opposed to a misplaced corner who could outhit his mistakes in the middle pasture — since the heyday of Ángel Pagán, if not Carlos Beltrán. Last year’s roster, the first one assembled by Van Wagenen, had such a surplus of infielders that its six most common outfield configurations (from among 27 different permutations in all) involved at least one infielder who had little major league experience as a flychaser:

Mets’ Most Common Outfields, 2019
LF CF RF Games Started
Jeff McNeil Brandon Nimmo Michael Conforto 27
J.D. Davis Juan Lagares Michael Conforto 26
J.D. Davis Michael Conforto Jeff McNeil 17
Dominic Smith Michael Conforto Jeff McNeil 16
J.D. Davis Brandon Nimmo Michael Conforto 10
Jeff McNeil Juan Lagares Michael Conforto 8
Brandon Nimmo Juan Lagares Michael Conforto 7
Yellow = Infielder with 13 or fewer MLB games in outfield prior to 2019.

Coming into 2019, McNeil had never played the outfield in the majors and had just eight games of minor league experience there, while Davis’ outfield resumé amounted to five major league games plus 31 in the minors, with Smith notching 13 in the majors and 26 in the minors. One had to scroll down to the team’s seventh most commonly-used configuration to find a trio of seasoned outfielders playing in the same unit. The mismatches contributed to ongoing defensive woes, as the team ranked 13th in the NL in defensive efficiency (.677), 14th in UZR (-12.8), and last in DRS (-86). Read the rest of this entry »


Another Extension Season Is Upon Us

Last winter, a whopping 33 contract extensions were signed between the end of the World Series and early April, nearly as many as the previous two offseasons combined. In all, over $2.2 billion in new money was guaranteed to these 33 players, with seven of those extensions crossing the nine figure mark. It was the largest total outlay for contract extensions in a single offseason in baseball history, beating the previous record set during the 2011-2012 offseason.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about the rash of extensions signed last year was the diversity of the types of players teams extended. Established stars like Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, and Chris Sale all signed massive contracts befitting their status as legitimate stars. Then there were players like Nolan Arenado, Xander Bogaerts, and Jacob deGrom, all members of the most common group of players to sign extensions: young, established players on the verge of hitting free agency.

In recent seasons, we’ve seen more and more players sign long-term contracts before reaching arbitration, like Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, and German Márquez all did last year. The newest frontier for contract extensions moves even earlier on the arbitration timeline. Some teams are now extending their top prospects before or not long after they make their major league debuts — Eloy Jiménez, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Brandon Lowe all fell into that category last year. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Red Sox Prospect Jarren Duran is a Speedy, Intense Anomaly

My first ever conversation with Jarren Duran took place prior to spring training when the Red Sox held their annual rookie development camp. Things started off clumsily. The speedy outfield prospect has a certain intensity about him, and his responses to my initial inquiries came couched with edgy caution.

Duran has a 50% ground-ball rate since turning pro, and when I noted that worm-killing isn’t exactly de rigueur in today’s game, his reply was a terse, “Yeah, but I can’t beat out a fly ball. That would be a waste of my speed, so why not use the tool that I have?”

Fair enough. Duran has plus-plus wheels — he swiped 46 bags last season — and he profiles as a table-setter as opposed to a bopper. Even so, is a willingness to stay on the ground really in his best interest?


“I’m willing to accept any ball that will give me a hit,” Duran proclaimed. “Ground balls. Line drives. Even fly balls. I’m just trying to make hard contact.”

Again, fair enough. But it’s not as though the 23-year-old Long Beach State product is wholly without pop. The 2018 seventh-round pick did leave the yard five times between high-A Salem and Double-A Portland, and he’s by no means built like a beanpole. Plus, fence-clearing ability is a quality any hitter should aspire to. Right?

Bobby Dalbec is the big guy, the home run hitter,” Duran said of his muscular minor-league teammate. “I’m the little guy who gets on for the bigger guys.” When I pointed out that he’s bigger than Mookie Betts, Duran shrugged and deadpanned, “He’s got more power than me.” Asked if power is something he’s hoping to grow into, his response was an equally-shrug-worthy, “If it comes it comes. If it doesn’t it doesn’t.” Read the rest of this entry »


Top 42 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Pirates Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Ke’Bryan Hayes 23.1 AAA 3B 2020 55
2 Oneil Cruz 21.4 AA SS 2021 55
3 Mitch Keller 23.9 MLB RHP 2020 55
4 Travis Swaggerty 22.5 A+ CF 2022 50
5 Tahnaj Thomas 20.7 R RHP 2022 50
6 Liover Peguero 19.2 A- SS 2022 50
7 Quinn Priester 19.5 A- RHP 2024 45+
8 Brennan Malone 19.5 A- RHP 2024 45+
9 Jared Oliva 24.3 AA CF 2021 45+
10 Cody Bolton 21.7 AA RHP 2021 45
11 Ji-Hwan Bae 20.6 A SS 2023 45
12 Rodolfo Castro 20.8 A+ 2B 2021 45
13 Nick Mears 23.4 AA RHP 2020 40+
14 Cal Mitchell 21.0 A+ RF 2022 40+
15 Sammy Siani 19.2 R CF 2024 40+
16 Mason Martin 20.7 A+ 1B 2022 40+
17 Rodolfo Nolasco 18.4 R OF 2023 40+
18 Santiago Florez 19.8 R RHP 2021 40+
19 Travis MacGregor 22.4 A RHP 2021 40
20 Kevin Kramer 26.4 MLB 2B 2020 40
21 Michael Burrows 20.3 A- RHP 2022 40
22 Jared Triolo 22.1 A- 3B 2023 40
23 Steven Jennings 21.3 A RHP 2022 40
24 Braxton Ashcraft 20.4 A- RHP 2023 40
25 JT Brubaker 26.3 AAA RHP 2020 40
26 Nick Burdi 27.1 MLB RHP 2020 40
27 Jack Herman 20.4 A RF 2023 40
28 Blake Cederlind 24.1 AAA RHP 2020 40
29 Lolo Sanchez 20.8 A+ CF 2021 40
30 Yerry De Los Santos 22.2 A RHP 2021 40
31 Jason Martin 24.5 MLB RF 2020 40
32 Alexander Mojica 17.6 R 1B 2023 35+
33 Cristopher Cruz 17.1 R RHP 2025 35+
34 Matt Gorski 22.2 A- RF 2023 35+
35 Juan Jerez 18.3 R 2B 2023 35+
36 Luis Tejeda 17.5 R 3B 2023 35+
37 Wilkin Ramos 19.3 R RHP 2022 35+
38 Yordi Rosario 21.1 R RHP 2023 35+
39 Juan Pie 18.9 A- RF 2023 35+
40 Andy Maldonado 17.6 R RHP 2023 35+
41 Sergio Campana 17.9 R CF 2023 35+
42 Osvaldo Gavilan 18.4 R CF 2023 35+
Reading Options
Detail Level
Data Only
Full
Position Filter
All

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 50/50 35/40 60/55 60/70 60/60

Hayes is perhaps still a swing change away from really breaking out, as he continued to hit the ball hard at Triple-A last year, but often into the ground. He remains a very intriguing prospect not just because the quality of the contact is good but because he’s a plus-plus third base defender with rare speed for the position. It’s possible to attribute what appear to be some plateauing traits to the previous Pirates regime’s issues with player development and perhaps what is in essence a fresh start will unlock something that’s currently lying dormant. At age 23, it’s looking a little less likely now than at this time last year when we 60’d Hayes, with the currently sky-high offensive bar at third base contributing to that sentiment.

2. Oneil Cruz, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/80 30/60 60/45 40/45 80/80

Somehow, over the past year, the ratio of scouts who believe the 6-foot-7 Cruz might actually stay at shortstop has grown. It’s more within the realm of possibility for those who think a lot of issues with lateral agility can be masked through some combination of arm strength (Cruz has a freaking hose) and good defensive positioning. What if this guy, who I’ll once again body-comp to Harold Carmichael and Brandon Ingram before I search for a less instructive baseball avatar, actually stays there and grows into 80-grade raw power? How bad would the contact issues need to be for him not to be a great player if that’s the case?

Indeed there are folks in baseball who are skeptical of Cruz’s hit tool because of his lever length, and those concerns are exacerbated by how often he likes to swing. There are several vastly different ideas as to how his body and game will develop as he fills out, and scouts who think Cruz is destined to slow down and move to right field or first base, and who also have concerns about the contact, don’t even think he belongs on this list. But consider this: At this age Aaron Judge, who is as close as we’re going to get to a physical peer for Cruz, was striking out 21% of the time at Fresno State. Split between Hi- and Double-A, against competition way better than Mountain West Conference pitching, Cruz whiffed 25% of the time. That’s not bad for someone this age and this size. I will concede that the approach is bad and that the swing needs polish if Cruz is going to get to his power in games. I’ll also concede that the Fall League look was bad (he missed several weeks with a foot fracture), and his LIDOM performance was, too. This is one of the — if not the — highest-variance players in the minors, but there aren’t many who have a chance to be what this guy might. Even the outcomes more toward the middle of what is likely — a center fielder with a hit tool in the 35-40 range with huge power, a right fielder or third baseman with the same, a gigantic target at first — are still fine. I’m way, way in on Cruz even though he has clear issues that make him one of baseball’s riskier players.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Xavier HS (IA) (PIT)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 55/55 40/45 55/60 94-96 / 98

We’ve all been waiting around for Keller and the Pirates to figure things out, and it seems they’ve gotten much closer with the addition of a slider, which has become Keller’s primary out-pitch. (His fastball still has a little less life than would best pair with his curveball, but I don’t have him on the high speed camera yet to see if he’s pronating behind the baseball.) Keller quickly got comfortable locating that slider, which has an awful lot of sweep for a pitch in the upper-80s, to his glove side. He can throw competitively-located changeups against left-handed hitters, but in big spots a well-placed slider is just a nastier option. Aside from the little bit of carry that might be added to his heater, Keller is now a four-pitch strike-thrower with a state-of-the-art repertoire.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from South Alabama (PIT)
Age 22.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 60/60 30/50 65/65 55/60 60/60

Swaggerty is a good defensive player whose offensive performance, specifically his power output, continues to fall a little short of what someone with his physical talent could be doing. Are you noticing a common theme surrounding Pirates hitters on this list? Even if Swaggerty never dials in his swing and actualizes his power, his secondary skills (mostly the defense) should help lift the profile to that of a regular anyway.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Bahamas (CLE)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/70 50/60 40/50 45/55 93-98 / 100

An athletic conversion arm with a big, broad-shouldered, projectable frame and almost no miles on his arm because of the conversion, Thomas has been pitching in relative obscurity to this point because he’s been on backfields and in the Appy League. He may be the most anonymous 100 mph arm in baseball. He snaps off some promising breaking balls and has pretty significant command projection because of his athleticism. There aren’t many young, high-variance arms on this list, but Thomas’ frame, his fresh arm, his elite velo, and how enthused I am about the breaking ball, changeup, and command projection because of how athletic he is gives him a chance to attain some nutty right tail outcomes.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 45/50 35/40 60/55 45/55 55/55

Aside from the semi-frequent body comps we issue to give readers a better idea of what a player looks like physically, we tend to shy away from making overall comparisons between prospects and current or former big leaguers unless it’s very apt. We have one here in Liover Peguero, who is a Jean Segura starter kit. His sloped shoulders, short torso, and the high, thick butt and thighs map to a slightly taller version of Segura. More significantly, like Segura, Peguero is remarkably short back to the baseball; his barrel enters the hitting zone in the blink of an eye, giving him an extra beat to decide whether or not to swing. It also makes it hard for pitchers to beat him with velocity, since he’s rarely late on anything and has quick enough hands to get on top of pitches near the top of the strike zone. He’s also remarkably strong in the hands and wrists for a teenager and is already producing average exit velos above the big league average, though Peguero cuts down at the ball and is currently groundball prone. His swing may get longer as his attack angle changes.

Perhaps the place where the Segura and Peguero Venn Diagram does not overlap is on the defensive end of things. Peguero is a plus athlete with above-average hands and arm strength, which could make him an above-average defender at short in time. If his lower half thickens and Peguero slows down, he’ll look more like Segura does now on defense.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Cary-Grove HS (IL) (PIT)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 45/55 40/55 91-95 / 97

You can take your pick between Priester or the recently-acquired Brennan Malone. Malone’s repertoire is a bit more fully realized but Priester has more room on his frame, better natural ability to spin the ball, and comes from a cold-weather background that often leaves a greater developmental gap between present and future pitchability traits. Pretty early in high school, Priester was firmly on the radar as a big-framed righty with a good breaking ball. His stuff ticked up closer to the draft, when he was consistently in the mid-90s, and he was 91-95, touching 96 after he signed, and his changeup showed late growth, too. It’s a high-variance, mid-rotation profile, similar to most teenage pitchers with this stuff and build.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from IMG Academy HS (FL) (ARI)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 50/55 40/50 40/50 92-96 / 99

Malone was on the scouting radar for awhile, standing out in North Carolina for his clean, quick arm speed and above-average breaking ball. For his draft year, he transferred to IMG Academy in Florida and took another step forward, reminiscent of how Touki Toussaint added feel elements to his profile in his draft year. Malone switched to a more controllable version of his breaker, a 55-grade slider that flashes 60 for some scouts and that he can dot anywhere. Malone hit 99 mph in his last outing of the spring in front of a lot of heat and sits in the mid-90s for full outings. His curveball and changeup are both about average, giving him a mid-rotation starter look, with the usual injury caveats for a power prep righty.

Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from Arizona (PIT)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 187 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 40/45 60/60 50/55 50/50

Among the league’s hitters, Oliva had one of the better Arizona Fall League performances and lots of scouts now think he’s got a shot to be a big league regular. He went undrafted as an eligible sophomore at Arizona because he was too raw and inexperienced due to a total lack of reps while in high school. He emerged as a speed/raw power flier as a junior, but slid to the Pirates in the seventh round and signed for slot. His performance in 2018, his first full pro season, exceeded all expectations: in his 172-game college career, Oliva produced nine homers and a .773 OPS, while in 108 games at Hi-A, he hit nine homers with a .778 OPS despite skipping Low-A. He has a flatter swing that doesn’t enable his raw power to play but the on-base ability and speed might enable him to be a center field regular anyway.

45 FV Prospects

10. Cody Bolton, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2017 from Tracy HS (CA) (PIT)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/50 45/50 92-95 / 97

Bolton had a strong start to his 2018 season before he was shut down in July with a shoulder issue and didn’t pitch for the rest of the summer. While a groin injury interrupted an otherwise healthy 2019, his stuff was wholly intact when he pitched, and his velocity was actually up a tick from the year before. Healthy Bolton touches 97 and will show you a plus slider and average changeup. He sat 86-90 as a rising high school senior but has since altered the timing of his arm swing for the better, and the resulting velo is fairly new, which makes Bolton’s cogent strike-throwing more impressive. Because his delivery is somewhat grotesque and Bolton has had a shoulder problem, there’s apprehension about his health, but he has 50 FV stuff and could reach the big leagues in the next 12 to 18 months.

11. Ji-Hwan Bae, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from South Korea (PIT)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 35/45 30/40 65/65 40/50 50/55

Bae’s teenage years were quite tumultuous off the field. He was wrapped up in the Braves’ international indiscretions and had his deal with the club voided by MLB. (The New York Times reported that although Bae had agreed to sign for $300,000, the Braves planned to pay him an additional $600,000 by reallocating money promised to other signees to him.) Because he had skipped the KBO’s draft to sign with an MLB team, the KBO barred him from signing with any South Korean pro team for two years. When he hit the market again, Bae signed with Pittsburgh for $1.25 million. He was found guilty of and later suspended for assaulting his former girlfriend in an incident that occurred on New Year’s Eve 2017. After the suspension and a treatment/education program, Bae returned to the field and was skipped over two levels and sent to full-season ball at age 19, where he hit .323/.403/.430.

His domestic assault conviction impacts how teams (and people, in general) view, value, and interact with him, but purely on talent, some clubs think he belonged on my top 100 list. Bae’s arm may prevent him from playing shortstop, but if that’s the case he’ll still fit at second base and he has the speed to play center field. It’s possible his lack of power hurts his on-base skills as he climbs the minors and pitchers attack him without fear of him doing extra-base damage (he has no minor league home runs yet), but Bae’s gotten stronger, his exit velos took a leap last year, and he has premium rotational ability. He should develop enough thump to keep pitchers honest and become a table-setting regular at second or in center field.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 30/50 55/50 45/50 50/50

Switch-hitting middle infielders with power are very rare, and while Castro’s approach makes him a volatile prospect (and may also make him a frustrating, low-OBP big leaguer), his pop and defensive fit give some real ceiling. Castro has a good chance to add strength as he ages without compromising his ability to play second base. His hitting hands are explosive but still pretty uncoordinated, especially from the left side of the plate, though that’s pretty common for switch-hitters this age. Even though it doesn’t always look pretty, Castro’s batted ball results indicate he actually has good feel for consistently hitting the ball hard (43% of his balls in play were hit at 95 mph or above, a 60 on the scale) and in the air. He’ll probably be a low-OBP hitter so he needs to out-slug that deficiency, but he has a chance to do that.

40+ FV Prospects

13. Nick Mears, RHP
Drafted: 0 Round, 2018 from Sacramento JC (CA) (PIT)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/55 45/45 93-98 / 100

Discovered in the Northwoods League after he slipped under draft radars for various reasons (including an early-career TJ), Mears was signed as an undrafted free agent and a year later, has reached the upper levels of the minors. He throws really, really hard, has a vertical slot that creates carry at the top of the zone, and though his curveball lacks huge depth, it does play well with the heater due to its vertical shape.

Because of when he signed, Mears doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man for a couple of years, and the rebuilding Pirates have incentive to slow-play this one. But Mears’ stuff is probably ready right now, and I think he has a shot to be a high-leverage option.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Rancho Bernardo HS (CA) (PIT)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 45/50 35/50 40/40 40/50 45/45

Mitchell owns one of the prettiest swings in pro baseball, a Griffey-esque lefty uppercut stroke that enables him to leverage pitches toward the bottom of the strike zone. The lift in Mitchell’s cut enabled him to golf out 15 homers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League even though Mitchell doesn’t have much raw power right now. His frame isn’t very big and it’s unlikely he’ll ever grow into impact pop, but whatever power Mitchell ends up with, it’s a fair bet he’ll get to it in games because of his feel for lift. His swing-happy approach is a bit of a problem. Above-average feel for contact has enabled it to this point, but the way his peripherals moved last year is somewhat concerning. Either the raw power or patience need to take a leap, but if one of them does, Mitchell has a good shot to be an every day player.

15. Sammy Siani, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from William Penn Charter HS (PA) (PIT)
Age 19.2 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 20/45 55/55 45/50 40/40

Siani is the younger brother of Reds prospect Mike Siani, and while Mike’s speed and defensive instincts made him a million dollar prep hitter, Sammy has more of a shot to hit for power. His hands work in a short little loop that creates lift without also creating length. From a tools and body standpoint, Siani has some tweener traits similar to eventual college outfielders Daniel Cabrera, Adam Haseley, and Dominic Fletcher when they were preps. Most of their tools live at or near average and they don’t have obviously projectable builds — they’re simply well-rounded players and good athletes who tend to perform in high school games.

There could be give (power) and take (speed) that pushes Siani to left field, or he may end up with a lighter hitting center field profile. You’re just betting on the swing foundation and athleticism here. Siani’s exit velos look really scary but he has generated very little data on that end, so little that the sample probably isn’t relevant.

16. Mason Martin, 1B
Drafted: 17th Round, 2017 from Southridge HS (WA) (PIT)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/70 35/60 40/40 45/50 45/45

Martin hit 35 dingers in 2019 and while his strikeout rates are indeed concerning, his blend of raw power and selectivity is potent, and quite impressive for a hitter his age at his level. Martin hits the ball very hard and hits it in the air regularly. The threat of his power is going to force pitchers to work carefully when he’s in the box, which I think gives his walk rate (career 14%) a good chance to hold water as he climbs the minors. Typically, first base-only profiles, even ones I like, with any sort of blemish get relegated to the 40 FV tier, but Martin’s premium raw power, the lift in his swing, and his approach make me more bullish about him profiling as a three true outcomes first baseman than most players with similarly-shaped skillsets.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 50/55 20/55 50/40 40/50 55/55

Many of the international prospects Pittsburgh has signed over the last two years have become of interest to opposing teams, and this is especially true of Nolasco, who has quickly added mass to his frame (his shoulders are huge, as if he’s got cantaloupe halves perched on either side of his neck) and grown into considerable power. His swing is not presently geared for the kind of in-game power you hope for based on Nolasco’s raw juice, but the barrel feel and ball/strike recognition are fairly advanced for a player this age. Corner outfield profiles are tough but the early indicators here are strong.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Colombia (PIT)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 222 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/60 40/50 30/40 92-94 / 95

His delivery is a little bit clunky, but after experiencing a significant velocity spike last year Florez now has better stuff at a younger age than most of the other prospects in this system. His fastball has grown from the 88-92 range to the 92-95 band in about a year and it has other characteristics that enable it to play in the strike zone. His breaking ball, which has always had length, now has more power and velocity as well. He has some nascent feel for creating sinking movement on a changeup, but he doesn’t often locate it competitively right now. That’s true for most of his offerings at the moment and there’s an awful lot of relief risk here, but the notion that Florez might throw even harder in short bursts combined with a shot to have three major league-quality offerings means that even if he ends up in relief, he could be dominant. His pitch grades assume bullpen projection. Florez is Rule 5 eligible at the end of 2020, which I think increases his chances of being ‘penned and pushed quickly.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from East Lake HS (FL) (PIT)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 50/55 40/50 91-94 / 97

The timing of MacGregor’s 2018 Tommy John meant he missed all of 2019 regular season play and was limited to throwing in sim games on the Pirates’ complex in the fall. His velocity spiked late during his high school career and the Pirates jumped on him earlier in the draft than he was expected to go; he was only sitting 90-91 and topping out at 94 at the time. Before the elbow went, he was 90-94, touching 97, and locating a quality breaking ball. He has mid-rotation upside if his stuff comes back after surgery.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from UCLA (PIT)
Age 26.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 45/45 40/45 40/40 40/45 50/50

After he tore through the minors, hitting at every stop, Kramer has now had two bad September cups of coffee and didn’t have a great 2019 at Triple-A Indianapolis. He did, however, begin to branch out defensively and see reps in the outfield. I still like him as a versatile lefty bench bat.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2018 from Waterford HS (CT) (PIT)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 183 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 35/45 90-94 / 96

Burrows is a spin rate monster. He has a medium build but is already throwing pretty hard and might throw harder in a relief role, which is what I think is most likely. The variance on the command portion here is a little higher considering how new this arm strength is (Burrows was sitting in the mid-80s during parts of his high school senior season) and while a couple of the prospects behind him on this list have a better chance of starting, he has a better chance to be anything at all because of how good his stuff is right now.

22. Jared Triolo, 3B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Houston (PIT)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 212 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 30/45 45/45 50/55 55/55

Triolo hit .317/.406/.447 in college and those numbers include a relatively punchless freshman season. He didn’t hit for power with wood on Cape Cod, nor did he last summer in the Penn League, but his exit velos are above big league average. Triolo has a pretty simple swing. His front foot is down early, he’s short to the ball, and at times he opens his front side up too much and gets beaten by breaking balls down. At third base the very average hit/power combo is a tough profile, but Triolo is a very good defender there, and that will help. He saw some reps at shortstop last summer and may get some at second base this year. He profiles as a multi-positional infield utility guy, much like Kramer, who is several levels ahead of Triolo.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from DeKalb HS (TN) (PIT)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 50/55 45/50 35/45 45/60 88-92 / 93

How much velocity can we still hope for Jennings to grow into? He’s 21 now and isn’t especially projectable, but he has had non-arm injuries (an ACL tear in high school, a broken rib) that have cost him reps and compromised his physicality for long stretches. He can still really spin it and his fastball, which was in the 88-92 range last year, has other traits that give it some room to breath at lesser speeds. There’s a small chance more velo arrives, but I’m more inclined to project Jennings as a strike-throwing fifth starter who relies on his secondary stuff quite often.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Robinson HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
35/45 50/55 45/50 40/45 40/50 88-93 / 95

A two-sport star in high school, Ashcraft kind of got lost amid the many talented prep arms in the 2018 class, but he was in the second tier, wire-to-wire, for the clubs that emphasize athleticism and projection. The Pirates need to find a way to get his fastball to play better than it did last year when it barely induced any swings and misses despite perfectly serviceable velo for the Penn League. Ashcraft remains a premium body/athleticism projection prospect with arm strength, but now that we have some pitch data, it seems that the developmental gap between where Ashcraft is and where he needs to be to be a viable big league arm is pretty wide.

25. JT Brubaker, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2015 from Akron (PIT)
Age 26.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/55 40/45 40/45 91-95 / 96

Brubaker had been remarkably durable up until a forearm strain interrupted, then ultimately ended, his 2019 season. His fastball was predictably down a tick from the prior season, when he was the Pirates Minor League Pitcher of the Year after posting a 2.81 ERA over 28 Double- and Triple-A starts. His relatively new curveball is his best secondary pitch and it pairs with a hard slider in the 88-90 mph range. Brubaker’s fastball doesn’t have bat-missing life or ride, but he knows how to attack hitters with his two breaking balls and should fit in the back of a rotation or in a relief role. His health may dictate which.

26. Nick Burdi, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Louisville (MIN)
Age 27.1 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
65/65 55/60 40/40 94-97 / 100

Burdi’s injury history (a Tommy John and surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome) is a concern, but he’s touching 100 mph again, and his lower half is now more involved in his delivery. He’d be in the 40+ tier with Mears if not for his injury rap and age.

27. Jack Herman, RF
Drafted: 30th Round, 2018 from Eastern HS (NJ) (PIT)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 35/55 40/40 40/50 60/60

Herman skipped a couple of levels and kept his head above water at Greensboro in his first full pro season, striking out a lot (he was a 30th rounder out of a New Jersey high school the year before) while hitting for power. His stroke is comically simple and it’s amazing how he’s able to rotate and generate lift and power with such minimal activity before his hands fire. It’s going to be a tough right field profile and some hit tool questions will eventually need to be answered, but the raw and game power look like they’re going to clear the right field bar if Mr. Herman hits.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Merced JC (CA) (PIT)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 50/50 45/50 35/40 96-98 / 100

Though he’ll occasionally show you an above-average changeup and slider, Cederlind’s bread and butter is his upper-90s sinker. He’s going to work off of that pitch about 70% of the time en route to a middle-relief role. I think he’ll be more of a groundball reliever, like Scott Alexander or Jared Hughes, than one who misses bats.

29. Lolo Sanchez, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 30/45 20/45 60/60 45/55 55/55

Lolo is really tough to evaluate. His swing has changed several times, his 2019 Low-A numbers (he slugged .450) are wholly unsupported by his TrackMan data (82 mph exit velos, a 30 on the scale), and we didn’t see him play much center field after he was promoted to Bradenton because of Travis Swaggerty’s presence. Some of his poor performance there, and historically, needs to be considered with his age (20, young for every level he’s played at) in mind. The pull-heavy approach here doesn’t make sense given the speed and contact rates but I still like that Sanchez is as fast as he is and has displayed precocious feel for the barrel. I think the outcome here is probably that of a bench outfielder but my degree of confidence is lower because Lolo’s development to this point has been so strange.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 35/40 93-96 / 98

Injuries (including a TJ) limited De Los Santos to just 27 innings over a three-year span, and 2019 was his first healthy, full season since 2015. In 2019 he was back, throwing hard, and has a typical middle relief fastball/slider combination. He probably could have used a promotion last year, but keeping De Los Santos at Low-A at his age perhaps successfully hid him from model-driven teams with a Rule 5 spot. Now the Pirates have to hit the gas on his assignment to stress test his stuff for a 40-man addition in the fall.

31. Jason Martin, RF
Drafted: 8th Round, 2013 from Orange Lutheran HS (CA) (HOU)
Age 24.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 50/50 40/45 50/50 45/50 50/50

Since a 2016 swing change increased the angle in his swing, Martin had performed at every level until reaching Triple-A in 2018. He’s a tweener defensive outfielder with a collection of average tools, and he profiles in a bench/platoon role.

35+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 55/60 25/55 20/20 35/40 50/50

He posted bonkers DSL numbers (.351/.468/.580) but, like Cardinals prospect Malcom Nunez before him, Mojica is a husky power hitter who is bigger and stronger than just about everyone he played with in the DSL. He is currently playing third base but profiles as 1B/DH long term. He’s a prospect — his well-balanced leg kick looks a lot like Andrew Vaughn’s, his hands are fast and powerful, his peripherals are strong — but it’s very hard to profile at first.

33. Cristopher Cruz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 17.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/50 40/50 45/55 30/50 30/50 88-91 / 92

His delivery is pretty rough around the edges (and, as a result, so is his control) but Cruz is a very young, very projectable righty who can spin a breaking ball. He has a longer arm swing and lower arm slot, both of which may be altered in pro ball.

34. Matt Gorski, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Indiana (PIT)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 30/45 55/55 45/55 55/55

Gorski runs well and has a long, projectable frame (atypical of college prospects from the Midwest). He hit for power during his final two years at Indiana but his swing, which includes an arm bar and flat bat path, probably need a tweak for him to do it in pro ball. He’s a rare college developmental project with some late-bloomer traits in the body and a mid-tier baseball school background.

35. Juan Jerez, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 25/45 45/45 45/50 50/50

Jerez is a compact young infielder with advanced feel to hit. Both he and Luis Tejeda are bigger teenage infielders who might end up as shift-aided 2B/3B with power, or they might remain medium build players with more defensive range, which will put more pressure on them hitting for contact. They both hit the ball hard for players their age, though they’re also a little more physical than most of their DSL peers. Jerez is the more athletic defensive player and is hitting the ball harder right now.

36. Luis Tejeda, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 17.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/55 25/50 40/40 40/45 50/55

Tejeda is a strong, square-shouldered teenage infielder who may grow into sizable power. He’s a slower-twitch athlete but is loose and rotates gracefully, giving him more power potential than his semi-mature frame might indicate.

37. Wilkin Ramos, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (OAK)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/60 40/45 45/55 35/45 89-93 / 95

In his fall Instructional League outings with Oakland, before he was traded to Pittsburgh for Tanner Anderson, the Gumby-like Ramos was sitting in the 87-89 range with some curveball feel, entirely a frame-based lottery ticket. He threw just 12 innings for Pittsburgh last year because of elbow soreness, but during those 12 innings he was sitting in the low-90s and touching 95. If healthy, he’s a 2020 breakout candidate.

38. Yordi Rosario, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/50 45/50 45/50 45/55 87-90 / 92

Rosario was acquired for Iván Nova during the 2019 Winter Meetings. He’s an advanced strike-thrower with a fastball in the 88-93 range and an average curveball, both of which could improve as Rosario grows into his body. Realistically he profiles as a future No. 4/5 starter.

39. Juan Pie, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 18.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 45/55 25/55 55/50 40/50 55/60

The free-spirited Pie spent 2019 in the GCL where he took a lot of wild swings and didn’t perform as well as he did in his 2018 pro debut. He remains a traditional right field body/power projection lottery ticket.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/50 40/45 45/55 35/50 89-93 / 95

Maldonado will serve a 72-game suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol last year, so he’ll barely pitch in 2020. He didn’t turn 17 until last July and, at a broad-shouldered 6-foot-4, was already sitting 89-93. Obviously the drug suspension lends doubt to the arm strength.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from null (PIT)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 40/50 20/45 80/80 45/60 45/50

Campana is an 80-grade runner with a frame and crude feel for contact. His speed gives him a shot to be a special center field defender and it’s possible that his frame fills out and gives Campana the requisite physicality to generate hard contact.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 18.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 40/45 20/45 50/50 45/50 50/50

Gavilan was the Pirates’ top July 2 signee from 2018 at $700,000. He’s an average runner (he ran a 7.1 60-yard-dash in workouts) with good instincts in center field, and he’ll stay there if he speeds up as he matures as an athlete. His current swing is somewhat long but again, Gavilan has advanced feel to hit, enough to compensate for his mechanical maladies right now.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

More Semi-Projectable Youngsters
Jase Bowen, 2B
Jesus Valdez, 3B
Dariel Lopez, 3B
Solomon Maguire, CF
Jauri Custodio, CF
Enmanuel Terrero, CF
Yoyner Fajardo, 2B
Jasiah Dixon, CF

The Pirates international approach under new Director Junior Vizcaino has been one of high-volume, with lots of mid-six figure types rather than huge bonus babies. Assume these are all medium-frame types unless otherwise noted. Bowen was the team’s 2019 11th rounder. He signed for $400,000 in lieu of a multi-sport career at Michigan State. His bat is quite raw but he has about average raw power and is going to try to play second base. He’s a dev project. Valdez, 22, is a lanky infielder who projects to 3B or the outfield corners. He already has at least average raw power and he looks physically projectable, but players this age are sometimes done growing. Lopez had a big year in the DSL but I’m not sure he stays on the dirt. If I’m wrong, then he belongs in the 35+ tier this year. Maguire was signed out of Australia a few weeks ago with money acquired via trade. He’s a 16-year-old outfielder with surprising bat control. Custodio, 18, has the best feel for contact in this group and a good shot to stay in center field. Terrero signed for $600,000 last July. He’s a compact, contact-oriented center fielder. Fajardo is much like Jerez and Tejeda on the main list but he’s more physically mature, and tougher to dream on. Dixon is a raw swinger but he’s a good-framed 70 runner.

College-Age Pitchers
Noe Toribio, RHP
Cristofer Melendez, RHP
Felipe Mezquita, RHP
Colin Selby, RHP
Luis Gonzalez, RHP

Toribio, 20, is a pitchability righty with an average curveball and changeup, heater up to 95, sitting 92-94. Melendez was a 2018 minor league Rule 5 pick and is now on his third org at age 22. He sits 92-96 from a three-quarters slot and his slider is plus when it’s located correctly. Mezquita, 18, has a giant frame and is sitting 90-93, touching 95, but with little idea where it’s going. Gonzalez, too, but he’s less projectable. Selby, 22, has a longer arm action but he’s thrown strikes for two years. He’s up to 96 and has an above-average slider.

Potential Role Players
Braeden Ogle, LHP
Stephen Alemais, SS
Brandon Waddell, LHP
Blake Weiman, LHP
Max Kranick, RHP
Mitchell Tolman, 2B
Matt Fraizer, OF
Grant Koch, C

Ogle is up to 96 and will show you a 55 breaking ball. He’s 22 and has had some injuries. Alemais missed almost all of 2019 due to shoulder surgery. He’s a plus defensive shortstop when healthy and might end up having Nick Ahmed’s career. Waddell is a sinker/slider/changeup lefty up to 95. He has starter experience and could be a viable long man. Weiman throws a ton of strikes out of the bullpen and is perfectly viable injury depth right now. He’ll need to perform if he’s given a big league opportunity because he doesn’t throw very hard. Kranick is a fastball-heavy relief prospect who’s up to 96 as a starter, sitting 92-94. It may play better in relief. Tolman is a lefty stick without much power who can play second base, a lesser version of Kevin Kramer. Fraizer didn’t play much at U of A due to a broken hand but he tweaked his swing and hit .400 over the 19 games he did play. He looked like a fourth outfielder type in my looks but they were limited during his junior year. Koch has 40-man catcher upside.

System Overview

I mentioned last year that I thought the core of the next competitive Pirates team was in place. Cole Tucker still has a chance to grow into impact power late, and he’s almost certainly going to play great defense. Bryan Reynolds‘ debut was excellent, Josh Bell’s 2019 first half offered a look at his capabilities, and several of the top prospects on this list are going to arrive pretty quickly. The club’s more evenly allocated approach to amateur talent acquisition (several over slot high schoolers on Day Three of the draft, lots of $400,000-$800,000 bonus types internationally) is juxtaposed with their pro department’s big game (and frame) hunting tendencies (Tahnaj Thomas, Lliover Peguero, Brennan Malone, Yordi Rosario, Wilkin Ramos); they seem hellbent on acquiring upside that the org’s ownership wouldn’t be willing to pay for on the open market. This club has to home grow stars and is clearly looking for them as they ship big league pieces off in the short-term.

Pittsburgh’s new front office now has seeds from the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer tree (Ben Cherington, the new GM), the Red Sox’s more recent leadership (Vizcaino comes from Boston), Houston’s operation (Oz Ocampo), and the Twins’ and Rays’ field staff (new manager Derek Shelton). It’s a lot of new ideas from some of the more successful orgs in baseball. This is one of the game’s better systems with both high-end talent up top and real depth created by the last couple years of focus on farm building.


Braves Print Money for Liberty Media

Generally speaking, exactly how much money baseball teams make on an annual basis isn’t public knowledge. We can take a look at the sale of MLB franchises and know that when they are sold, teams generally make 8% annually after accounting for inflation. Profits are more difficult to decipher because owners don’t want to disclose just how much money they make, though they are sometimes quick to trumpet an operating loss. The absence of many owners claiming losses is arguably deafening, but in addition to that silence, the publicly traded Braves report their revenues every year. Over the last two seasons, they have provided Liberty Media with nearly $150 million in profits.

Baseball ownership hasn’t traditionally been an avenue for massive yearly profits. In 2001, MLB self-reported unaudited numbers to Congress after MLB’s antitrust exemption was threatened. They had announced that two franchises might be contracted, and that drew the ire of the elected representatives in Washington. It’s fair to take these numbers with a grain of salt, but on average, teams lost around $5 million per year from 1996-2001. MLB did not have a great television contract during that time, but revenues have skyrocketed since then, with significantly better TV deals (both locally and nationally) along with increases in attendance and ticket prices.

Even so, when Liberty Media purchased the Braves in 2007, it wasn’t necessarily an expectation that the club would turn a profit every year, at least according to Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei a year ago. It was that lack of profits that made many speculate that Liberty wouldn’t be holding on to the Braves for a long period of time, but they’ve had a change in philosophy, with huge profits affecting their previous strategy. Read the rest of this entry »


MLB’s Winning and Losing Efforts to Conquer TV, Part II: Beating the Bubble

Television money draws a lot of attention when it comes to MLB’s finances, in part because the national revenues are easily identifiable. But the big driver of baseball revenue since the strike hasn’t been national television. Instead, local television deals and brand new stadiums with capacity for significantly more fans (and many highly priced tickets) have helped MLB revenues soar. Baseball’s national television deals have certainly gotten bigger, but getting fans to the ballpark has been more important to the bottom line over the last few decades. Baseball’s increasingly diverse streams of revenue have even reached to land deals surrounding ballparks, and helped create a financially strong industry in which one bad television deal won’t topple the sport and lead to a strike and lockout, as it did in 1994 (covered in Part I). However, MLB must be careful not to head back in that direction, and current trends are less than promising. In the second part of this series, we’ll look at how MLB has grown into an industry that generates nearly $11 billion per year in revenue, with a valuation above $50 billion.

While the 60s, 70s, or 80s (or whichever era you grew up in) were probably the halcyon days of the sport, you wouldn’t know by looking at attendance figures. In the 1980s, average attendance was roughly 22,000 fans per game and tickets were about six bucks a piece (around $14 after inflation). In today’s dollars, that’s roughly $25 million per team per year. Over the last decade, attendance is up to 30,000 per game, one-third more what it was in the 80s (a topic that is often overlooked when examining the health of the sport), and ticket prices have averaged around $29 per ticket in that time. For an average team, that’s $70 million per year, an 180% increase over the 1980s even after accounting for inflation. Even with that increase, gate receipts account for somewhere between 20% and 45% of revenue, depending on the team. Helping to fuel those increases, almost every major league team has received a brand new, publicly funded stadium to bring more fans to games at considerably higher prices. In the last 30 years, national television money has doubled after inflation, but gate money has grown nearly twice as fast.

Local television revenue has grown just as fast as gate revenues and provided teams with a windfall of cash over the past 20 years, necessitating revenue sharing as the disparity between the biggest and smallest baseball markets have grown. The massive cable television deals, coupled with notable failures in Houston and Los Angeles, have caused speculation about a cable bubble as carriers lose subscribers and become reticent to pay big per subscriber fees for niche channels. Read the rest of this entry »