Edwin Díaz Signs Record Contract To Stay With Mets

One of this winter’s top free agents crossed himself off the list over the weekend, as Edwin Díaz signed a five-year, $102 million contract to remain the Mets’ closer. Díaz was absolutely dominant this season, striking out nearly two batters an inning, resulting in a FIP under 1.00, and avoiding any of the walk or home run flurries that occasionally have marred his résumé. While I’m not particularly a fan of the save stat or the conclusions drawn as a result, him only blowing three saves in 2022 accurately reflects his dominance; he only allowed multiple runs in a single appearance all year, and all three of his blown saves occurred with one-run leads. The deal comes with a $12 million signing bonus, a team option at $20 million for a sixth season, a no-trade provision, and an opt-out after 2025.
Star closer Edwin Díaz and the New York Mets are in agreement on a five-year, $102 million contract, pending physical, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. There’s an opt-out and a full no-trade clause, plus a sixth-year option. The best closer in baseball stays in New York.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 6, 2022
Generally speaking, when a pitcher has a microscopic ERA, there’s some measure of luck involved; nobody’s long-term baseline expectation is an ERA of 1.31. So it naturally amuses me that Díaz arguably underperformed his peripherals this season. How often does a pitcher with an ERA that excellent actually have a FIP nearly half a run lower? Not very.
Player | Year | IP | ERA | FIP | FIP-ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Craig Kimbrel | 2012 | 62.7 | 1.01 | 0.78 | -0.23 |
Eric Gagne | 2003 | 82.3 | 1.20 | 0.86 | -0.34 |
Edwin Díaz | 2022 | 62.0 | 1.31 | 0.90 | -0.41 |
Kenley Jansen | 2017 | 68.3 | 1.32 | 1.31 | -0.01 |
Walter Johnson | 1910 | 370.0 | 1.36 | 1.28 | -0.08 |
Ed Walsh | 1908 | 464.0 | 1.42 | 1.36 | -0.06 |
Christy Mathewson | 1908 | 390.7 | 1.43 | 1.26 | -0.17 |
Craig Kimbrel | 2017 | 69.0 | 1.43 | 1.42 | -0.01 |
Sergio Romo | 2011 | 48.0 | 1.50 | 0.96 | -0.54 |
Aroldis Chapman | 2016 | 58.0 | 1.55 | 1.42 | -0.13 |
Rube Waddell | 1904 | 383.0 | 1.62 | 1.48 | -0.14 |
Walter Johnson | 1908 | 256.3 | 1.65 | 1.47 | -0.18 |
Dave Smith | 1987 | 60.0 | 1.65 | 1.54 | -0.11 |
Chief Bender | 1909 | 250.0 | 1.66 | 1.52 | -0.14 |
Rob Dibble | 1990 | 98.0 | 1.74 | 1.50 | -0.24 |
Chief Bender | 1908 | 138.7 | 1.75 | 1.42 | -0.33 |
Red Ames | 1908 | 114.3 | 1.81 | 1.39 | -0.42 |
Cy Young | 1905 | 320.7 | 1.82 | 1.61 | -0.21 |
Francisco Rodriguez | 2004 | 84.0 | 1.82 | 1.64 | -0.18 |
Chad Green | 2017 | 69.0 | 1.83 | 1.75 | -0.08 |
Going back to the start of 1901, there have been only 35 player-seasons in which a pitcher had an ERA under 2.00 and had a FIP lower than their ERA (out of 796 possible player-seasons). Only Gagne and Kimbrel had lower ERAs in seasons during which they failed to match their FIP; the average FIP for a pitcher with an ERA between 1.01 and 1.51 is 2.30. Read the rest of this entry »