“The timid man calls himself cautious, the sordid man thrifty.” – Publius Syrus

The Mets always feel like an organization on the verge of a giant, hilarious meltdown. But for all the drama that can surround the franchise — whether it’s the manager and a pitcher threatening a beat writer or the team’s strange obsession with Tim Tebow — it frequently puts a competent product on the field. So it was in 2019, as the Mets outlasted most of the National League in the fight for the last playoff spot, eventually finishing a respectable 86-76. The Mets enter the offseason with most of that squad returning, but uncertainty about how much they are actually willing to spend will limit the team’s upside.

The Setup

Is there a franchise with a more pronounced tendency to back their way into success? The Mets didn’t fully commit to Michael Conforto until an All-Star appearance in 2017 made their apparent casual disinterest untenable, and there always seemed to be a bit of annoyance at “having” to play Brandon Nimmo. Despite a .329/.381/.471 debut from Jeff McNeil, the Mets spent much of the winter bringing in veterans who man the positions McNeil was likely to play in the majors. In 2020, McNeil and Conforto will be keys to the team’s success, as will a hopefully healthy Nimmo.

After Sandy Alderson’s contract expired, the Mets turned the page on the era and hired Brodie Van Wagenen, the co-head of the baseball division of CAA Sports. Ignoring for a moment the potential conflicts of interest involved in moving from an agency to the front office, Van Wagenen was a bold hire. I don’t usually think of the Mets as visionaries, but I’d rather teams try something new than go with the safe veteran choice. Aside from those aforementioned conflicts, much of the skillset of a good agent ought to extend to being a good front office executive. Agents have to negotiate contracts, so generally ought to have a keen grasp of how players are valued around the league, and the job of player representation necessarily involves some knowledge of modern analytics. Call me biased, but anyone who knew to go out and hire Russell Carleton and Andrew Perpetua has to be at least somewhat knowledgeable. Read the rest of this entry »

In part four of a six-part series — the AL East, AL Central, and AL West pieces have been published — I’ll be highlighting each team’s most notable free agents and how it could fill the resulting void on the roster. A player’s rank on our recently released Top 50 Free Agents list, along with Kiley McDaniel’s contract estimates from that exercise, are listed where relevant. In some cases, the team already has a capable replacement ready to step in. In others, it’s clear the team will either attempt to re-sign their player or look to the trade or free agent markets for help. The remaining cases are somewhere in between, with in-house candidates who might be the answer, but aren’t such obvious everyday players to keep the team from shopping around for better options.

Here’s a look at the National League East.

Atlanta Braves | Depth Chart | Payroll

Josh Donaldson, 3B
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 4
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 3 years, $71M

The Braves didn’t waste much time identifying Donaldson as their preferred third baseman for 2019 and inked him to a one-year, $23 million deal last November. A year later, Austin Riley is ready to step in at the hot corner while Donaldson, who will turn 34 next month, is expected to land a multi-year deal in the range of $20-$25 million per season.

As great a fit as he is in Atlanta, Donaldson will likely get better offers elsewhere with the Braves expected to prioritize starting pitching and catching. That doesn’t rule out a return, especially if the team can fill their biggest needs without breaking the bank. Read the rest of this entry »

The NL East: A division that, if it had ever been noble, would be referred to here as “once noble” now.

That’s a bit unfair; there was some nobility to Atlanta wailing on this Senior Circuit subset for a decade and a half. But these days, it’s been a harbor for a few disappointing Nationals squads (this year’s a notable exception), a weird Mets run, and some airtight regular season Braves teams. Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, Pete Alonso; some of the game’s most prolific young hitters are bedeviling pitching in the East, and now the division’s newest manager, Joe Girardi, will be strategizing against them.

Announced as the Phillies’ 55th manager last Thursday, Girardi takes over for his beaten-down and very tan predecessor, Gabe Kapler, inheriting team the closest it has been to a winner since 2011 but also one that has continuously found ways to not win. As stories have squeaked out about the team’s 2019 season, it has become apparent that a little structure and a little experience might go a long way in straightening things out in South Philly. There’s star power in Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, as well as promise in Scott Kingery and Adam Haseley, and Aaron Nola can still be expected to anchor the rotation. And though there are plenty of spots to fill in the months ahead, the Phillies nabbed one of the most popular names on the managerial market, one who is already impacting the division just by accepting the job.

The ebb and flow of managerial hires across baseball is always apparent, if not obvious. There are trends. There are trials. Sometimes everybody’s starting over at once. Sometimes, Bobby Valentine sounds like a great idea. Right now, everybody wants one of those early-40s ex-players ready to be dazzled by a spreadsheet. The Phillies just tried one of those in 2017. Now they’re ready to try something else. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Integration Analyst, Dominican Republic Academy

Location: Dominican Republic

Summary:

The New York Mets are seeking an analyst to integrate data from new technology into the operation of the International Scouting & Player Development departments. This individual will work closely with scouts and coaches at the New York Mets Academy in the Dominican Republic in order to optimize the integration of this data into the day-to-day operations of each department.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Collaborate with scouts, coaches, strength and conditioning staff, research and development staff, and front office to implement and improve scouting/player development initiatives at the Mets Dominican Academy
• Implement new systems and technologies alongside scouting/player development staff
• Develop/apply new tools for player improvement, and implement those alongside the coaching staff
• Create targeted development plans for each player alongside coaches, strength and conditioning staff, research and development staff, and front office
• Research and suggest new ideas to scouts, coaches, strength and conditioning staff, research and development staff, and front office to improve the scouting/development operation in the Dominican Republic

Requirements:

• Interest and desire to improve a Major League club in its scouting/player development operation
• Ability to communicate with staff across the organization
• Disposition and ability to teach scouts/coaches about new technologies and initiatives
• Flexibility to travel
• Mindset/desire to learn
• Fluency in Spanish
• Preferred experience with SQL and R

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the New York Mets.

While eight teams remain in the postseason, seven who missed out are busy searching for their next skipper. On Thursday, the Mets’ Mickey Callaway joined the ranks of the unemployed, getting the axe after just two seasons at the helm. He’s the fourth manager fired since late September with at least a year remaining on his contract, after the Padres’ Andy Green, the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle, and the Angels’ Brad Ausmus. Meanwhile, two former World Series winners, the Giants’ Bruce Bochy and the Royals’ Ned Yost, have retired, and a third ex-champion, Joe Maddon, parted ways with the Cubs after his contract expired. At this writing, the fate of the Phillies’ Gabe Kapler still hangs in the balance.

What follows here is a roundup of each vacancy, including a list of reported candidates that may not be comprehensive, since all of this is attempting to hit several moving targets. I’ve attempted to distinguish them from those whose candidacies are merely speculative. The teams are listed in order of 2019 records.

Mets (86-76)

What happened: Callaway was hired by general manager Sandy Alderson, who took a leave of absence in mid-2018 due to a recurrence of cancer and decided not to return to the job. Former agent Brodie Van Wagenen was hired last November, and he made a series of splashy moves, many of which ultimately set the Mets back (particularly the trade of two former first-round picks for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz). The holdover manager did not mesh with an increasingly analytically inclined front office — at one point, Callaway boasted, “I bet 85% of our decisions go against the analytics,” a statement that stood out given his often glaring in-game mistakes, many centered around a bullpen that ranked among the league’s worst. Read the rest of this entry »

Wednesday evening in Flushing, Jacob deGrom put a bow on another superlative season. For seven innings, he flummoxed the Marlins, striking out seven while only allowing two hits. It wasn’t surprising, exactly — deGrom is one of the best few pitchers in baseball and the Marlins are, well, the Marlins. For once, the Mets provided deGrom with copious run support — the three they scored in the first would have been enough, but they added six more runs over the next two innings.

With 32 starts in the books, deGrom looks to have handily lapped the field in the Cy Young race. If FIP-based WAR is your preferred metric, he ranks second in the majors, behind only Gerrit Cole and half a win clear of Max Scherzer. By RA9-WAR, he’s also second in the majors, this time behind Justin Verlander, and miles ahead of NL runner up Jack Flaherty.

Craig Edwards published a Cy Young tracker last week if you’d prefer to dig even deeper into the minutiae, but deGrom was already in the lead, and his two most recent starts (14 innings, 16 strikeouts, one walk, and no runs) only widened the gap. There probably won’t be much surprise come awards season.

But while there isn’t much suspense when it comes to ranking deGrom’s preeminence in the National League this year, his two-year run has vaulted him into select historical territory. His ERA-, which controls for scoring environment, works out to 51 over the last two years, which means he allows about half as many runs as a league average pitcher.

That 51 ERA-, ludicrous as it is, can’t compete with the best seasons of all time — Pedro Martinez’s preposterous 2000 worked out to a 35 ERA- (1.74 ERA in Fenway in the heart of the steroids era, goodness gracious), and there have been 42 qualifying seasons with an ERA- of 50 or lower since 1901. Even if we limit ourselves to 1949 and beyond, there have been 24 of those seasons. There are plenty of Hall of Famers on the list, but also Kevin Brown, Dean Chance, and Trevor Bauer. Read the rest of this entry »

As a FanGraphs reader, Mets fan, baseball follower, or some combination of the three, you’re probably familiar with Seth Lugo. We at FanGraphs haven’t written a ton about Lugo in 2019, but he is one of baseball’s most fascinating pitchers, known for his high-spin curveball that consistently finds itself atop the Baseball Savant daily spin rate leaderboards, like this one from September 15:

Lugo’s curveball is cool, and its coolness has generated much discussion. For good measure, here’s another look:

Wil Myers had no chance. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Player Development Intern

Location: St. Lucie, FL

Responsibilities:

• Assist players and coaching staff with accessing video, statistical and analytical information.
• Setup and operate baseball technology/teaching tools and assist players and staff in the comprehension of the data.
• Will travel with the team on all road trips.
• Work on projects assigned by player development staff.
• Film and chart each home game and pregame activities.
• Assist in Player Development administrative needs such as team travel, hotel reservation and obtaining documents for international players.
• Operate TrackMan Radar system in order to collect valuable player development data.

Skills:

• Strong communication skills
• Strong knowledge of Information Technology
• Spanish proficiency preferred
• SQL/Analytical experience preferred
• Proficient with Excel and other Microsoft Office software
• Must have a valid driver’s license

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the New York Mets.

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.

Position: Baseball Systems Associate

Location: Flushing, NY

Description:
The Mets are seeking an individual with a background in database management and software development to work with the club’s Baseball Systems team. The position will be responsible for assisting in the management and development of processes collecting, cleaning, and organizing large baseball data sets. One should have demonstrated experience building web applications in Python, Java, PHP, Javascript, etc. Applicants should be available to start in January, although the Mets may be flexible.

Responsibilities:

• Conduct research in the field of baseball analytics and communicate insights with others in Baseball Operations department.
• Research, develop, and test predictive models to support Baseball Operations decision-making (i.e., player evaluation, roster construction, player development, in-game strategy).
• Create data visualizations that integrate into Baseball Operations’ web application for use by office, coaches, and players.
• Collect and manage large data sets. This may involve writing scripts for automation as well as manual data entry.
• Stay current on publicly available baseball research.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree or equivalent experience in Computer Science, Information Systems, Statistics, Data Science, or equivalent.
• Experience with ETL processes and database management.
• Familiarity with baseball specific datasets (i.e., Trackman, Statcast, PITCHf/x) and knowledge of current baseball research.
• Demonstrated experience building web applications in Python, Java, PHP, Javascript, etc. Please provide a link to the application and/or codebase (Github) if possible.
• Detail oriented and organized with ability to balance multiple projects.
• Strong verbal communication and collaborative skills.
• Ability to work evenings, weekends, or holiday hours.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Position: Baseball Research and Development Associate

Location: Flushing, NY

Description:
The Mets are seeking an individual with a background in data analysis to work with the club’s Research and Development team. This is an entry-level, seasonal 8-12 month position in which he/she will analyze baseball data and use their findings to provide insight within the different areas of Baseball Operations. These may include player development, amateur and international scouting, major league advance scouting and more. Applicants should be available to start in January, although the Mets may be flexible.

Responsibilities:

• Conduct research in the field of baseball analytics and communicate insights with others in Baseball Operations department.
• Research, develop, and test predictive models to support Baseball Operations decision-making (i.e., player evaluation, roster construction, player development, in-game strategy).
• Create data visualizations that integrate into Baseball Operations’ web application.
• Collect and manage large data sets. This may involve writing scripts for automation as well as manual data entry.
• Stay current on publicly available baseball research.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree or equivalent experience in Statistics, Data Science, Mathematics, Physics, Computer Science, or similar quantitative field.
• Experience querying and managing data with SQL.
• Demonstrated experience using statistical tools and packages in R or Python.
• Familiarity with baseball specific datasets (i.e., Trackman, Statcast, PITCHf/x) and knowledge of current baseball research.
• Preference for candidates who have demonstrated experience building web applications in Python, Java, PHP, Javascript, etc. Please provide a link to the application and/or codebase (Github) if possible.
• Detail oriented and organized with ability to balance multiple projects.
• Strong verbal communication and collaborative skills.
• Prior original baseball research.
• Ability to work evenings, weekends, or holiday hours.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the New York Mets.

Over in the American League, there’s a pretty clear top tier of Cy Young contenders in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, followed by a solid group of candidates likely to garner down-ballot support. In the National League, there looks to be a top tier of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom followed by a cascading set of secondary candidates, but that first look doesn’t quite tell the entire story.

To provide some idea of the statistical disparities voters must contend with when making their decision, I looked at our FIP-based WAR as well as the RA9-WAR also available here at FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference’s WAR, and Baseball Prospectus’ WARP. I included for consideration any player in the top five of any of those lists. That search returned nine pitchers for the potential five slots on a Cy Young ballot. Those players are listed below, with a mix of traditional and advanced statistics:

We have Scherzer and deGrom in first and second by about a win over the next-best candidate, with deGrom pitching tonight. After those two, we have a lot of innings from Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and fewer innings, but better peripherals, from Walker Buehler. After those three, we have four candidates who haven’t thrown a ton of innings, but all have much lower ERA’s than FIPs. As for how these candidates came to be considered, here are their WAR totals:

Read the rest of this entry »