These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Luis Robert, CF, Chicago White Sox Level: Hi-A Age: 21 Org Rank:4FV: 55 Line: 2-for-4, HR, 2 HBP
Notes
Off to hot start, Robert has multi-hit efforts in each of his first four games and has already stolen three bases and homered three times. After watching LouBob a lot last year (first while he rehabbed multiple injuries, then in the Fall League), I grew concerned about how his bat path might limit the quality of his contact (he sometimes struggled to pull pitches he should have) or his rate of contact, which we don’t have a large-enough sample to properly assess because of his injuries. So far, the pull-side stuff hasn’t been founded, as all but two of Robert’s balls in play so far this year have been to the right side of the field, and those were both pop-ups to the second baseman. He’s one of the more physically-gifted players in pro baseball.
Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP, Boston Red Sox Level: Double-A Age: 22 Org Rank:2FV: 45 Line: 5 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 0 R, 10 K
Notes
We do not think Hernandez is a long-term starter and instead think he’ll be an elite bullpen arm. His fastball often sits in the upper-90s when he’s starting so it should at least stay there if he’s moved to relief and, though his feel for it comes and goes, his curveball can be untouchable at times. Maybe the strong early-season performances of Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, and Ryan Brasier has stifled some of the disquiet about the Red Sox bullpen, but in the event that they need an impact arm, I think it’s more likely to be Hernandez than a piece outside the org. Some of this is due to the quality of the farm system, but Hernandez might also just be better than a lot of the options that will eventually be on the trade market. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Texas Rangers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Orange Lutheran HS (CA) (TEX)
Age
19.3
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
195
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
50/60
45/50
50/60
45/50
45/55
92-95 / 97
Before his senior year in high school, Winn moved from Colorado to Orange Lutheran, a powerhouse program in southern California. He steadily crept up boards in the spring as his stuff and command kept impressing, overriding concerns that he didn’t have much projection or plus athleticism.
Winn works 92-95, and hits 97 mph, with a flat-planed, rising fastball that fits well up in the strike zone and he mixes in a plus-flashing curveball that pairs well with it down in the strike zone. He also has an average slider and changeup, though there’s a chance the change grows into a plus offering at some point. His command projects to be above average, as he already uses his smooth delivery to deliver pitches to fine locations rather than just over the plate. He was largely seen as the safest pick amongst the 2018 prep pitchers, a notoriously risky demographic. Texas has a deliberate approach to developing prep pitching with an onboarding process that includes a pro debut in instructional league, so Winn’s actual regular season pro debut will come in 2019. He was throwing hard in the fall and could move quickly through the minors.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age
20.5
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
35/60
50/55
30/40
60/60
45/55
55/55
It’s growing more difficult to reconcile Taveras’ obvious physical tool with his complete lack of performance, even though he has been young for his level since his pro debut. He put on a show during Futures Game BP (though, somewhat suspiciously, everyone did), he has visually evident feel for contact supported by his lower strikeout rates, he runs well-enough to stay in center field. But in three pro seasons now he’s hitting a collective .253/.315/.351 and it’s starting to make teams antsy. When we passed around initial drafts of our Top 100, all but one source providing feedback on Taveras’ ranking told us to move him down, some indicating he should be off, entirely. We still think he’d go somewhere in the first round were he draft eligible and that he has everyday tools, but so far as his stock throughout the industry is concerned, the clock is certainly ticking.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from McGill-Toolen HS (AL) (TEX)
Age
20.8
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/45
50/55
30/50
70/70
45/55
50/50
Thompson played through some nagging lower body issues during his pro debut, which somewhat masked the physical tools that had so enamored amateur scouts during the spring. He got to camp early the following spring. It was assumed that Thompson, who was a pretty raw baseball player due to his two-sport high school background, would stay in Arizona during extended spring training, then head to an advanced rookie affiliate in the Northwest League. Instead, Texas sent him to Low-A and he had a surprisingly strong statistical year (.289/.344/.446) with an unsurprisingly high strikeout rate (29%).
Like many of the power/speed center fielders on this list, Thompson is a high-risk prospect with big upside if he hits enough. Unlike several of them, he has a good statistical season on his resume.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age
20.9
Height
5′ 11″
Weight
160
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
55/60
40/55
55/55
45/50
60/60
It’s helpful to use the draft as a way of gauging where pro prospects fall on the FV continuum, and it’s easier to do that when the player in question is of the appropriate age. On the brink of 21, Tejeda is the age of draftable college players. Coincidentally, this year’s draft has a similar type of talent who is similarly aged in UNC-Wilmington shortstop, Greg Jones. Both Tejeda and Jones are speedy shortstops with rare power for the position who also have issues making contact. Tejeda is rangy and athletic, and has good defensive footwork and plenty of arm for the infield’s left side. His hands are just okay, so evaluations of his defense can vary depending on what individual scouts think is important to play the position, and some teams want to see him tried in center field.
Tejeda has plus-plus bat speed and his hands work in a tight, lift-friendly circle, but he’s so explosive that at times he’s out of control (this is where the strikeouts come from). He managed to get to the power at Hi-A in 2018, when he homered 19 times, and if he can stay at shortstop and continue to mash like that in games, he’ll be a good everyday player. We have Greg Jones in the 45 FV tier of the 2019 draft, which puts him in the mid-to-late first round; we like Tejeda a bit more than that and think he’d be in the 10-15 range on a draft board. He’ll move into the top 100 with continued statistical success at Double-A.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Dana Hills HS (CA) (TEX)
Age
20.5
Height
6′ 4″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
L / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
60/70
45/55
40/45
94-97 / 102
Slowed by biceps tendinitis in the spring, Crouse’s stuff was fine when he returned. He was touching 99 while throwing live BP, and sitting 92-96 during his starts in extended spring training. His 13-start Northwest/Sally League tour, during which he walked just 19 in 54 innings, was the first step toward quelling concerns about his viability as a starter, though we’re still somewhat apprehensive here at FanGraphs.
Crouse’s repertoire depth is not the issue. Based on his pitch usage during instructional league, his changeup seemed to be a developmental priority, and he has indeed made progress with it. It now comfortably projects to average, while Crouse’s fastball/breaking ball combination has been excellent since he was a high school underclassman. He incorporates all kinds of crafty veteran wrinkles into his delivery’s cadence on occasion. An extra shoulder wiggle, a Travoltaian gyration of the hips, the occasional quick-pitch — all sorts of things designed to take hitters by surprise. Scouts often sentence quirky, visibly fiery and emotional hurlers to late-inning duty, and we do think Crouse would thrive in such a role, but view these traits as positives. Crouse has a unique build and delivery, and is a very short strider whose 5-foot-4 extension sucks some of the perceived velo out of his fastball. This, plus the lower slot, might make him unusually vulnerable to lefties despite his velocity. This, his brief injury history, and still fringy command all contribute to a bundle of relief risk in our opinion.
Drafted: 30th Round, 2014 from St. John The Baptist HS (NY) (TEX)
Age
24.4
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
168
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
55/60
50/55
40/45
92-95 / 97
The start of Palumbo’s 2017 season sounded the alarm of re-evaluation as he struck out 22 hitters and walked four in his first 13.2 innings. Then he blew out his elbow and was on the shelf until the summer of 2018 to rehab from Tommy John.
When he returned, his stuff was back. His fastball sat 92-95 for most of his outings, dipping into the low end of that range later during his starts. It has some wiggle, as does a solid changeup that could be above-average with increased reps. But Palumbo’s curveball is his best pitch. It’s a timeless, rainbow curveball that arcs in at about 80 mph. It freezes hitters and garners swings and misses in the dirt to Palumbo’s glove side. He has No. 3 or 4 starter stuff, we just haven’t seen him hold it for a full season yet, and Palumbo is a 24-year-old with a surgery on his resume. There’s a chance he’s up at some point this year, but an innings limit might push his debut to 2020.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from North Florida Christian HS (FL) (TEX)
Age
21.3
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
45/50
40/50
60/65
40/50
91-94 / 96
After an uncharacteristically wild 2017, Ragans tore his UCL during the spring of 2018 and, though he’s thrown off a mound as this list goes to press, he likely won’t be back in game action until the middle of 2019.
Assuming his stuff returns, Ragans projects as a changeup/command lefty in the mold of young Cole Hamels. His low-90s fastball has bat-missing angle in the zone and he perfectly mimics his fastball’s arm speed when he throws the changeup, which was already consistently plus before he got hurt. Ragans’ curveball is not good, but there are several instances of pitchers having success with a playable fastball, elite changeup, and command of both, with Chris Paddack ascending for those reasons as we speak. Ragans projected as a No. 4 starter prior to the injury and is now just a little bit behind the developmental curve because of it.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Carson HS (NC) (TEX)
Age
19.6
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
50/55
55/60
45/50
40/55
92-95 / 96
Texas’ new approach to pitching development shelves their recent draftees for the summer, which is why White still hasn’t played an affiliated game yet. He did throw during instructional league in the fall and looked fantastic, sitting 93-95 with his fastball, locating a consistently above-average curveball, and displaying nascent feel for a mid-80s changeup. He has a big, projectable frame, is an above-average on-mound athlete, and his arm action is loose and mechanically efficient. There are several significant components already in place (velocity, fastball movement, breaking ball quality) and White’s other traits (changeup proclivity, athleticism, and feel for location) indicate he’s poised to grow and develop into a well-rounded arm. He’s a mid-rotation pitching prospect who is likely several years from the majors.
Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Oklahoma Baptist (WAS)
Age
24.6
Height
6′ 5″
Weight
210
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
50/50
50/55
40/45
93-96 / 98
Hearn has been part of two very strong prospect return packages for relievers. First, he and Felipe Vasquez were sent from Washington to Pittsburgh for Mark Melancon. Then he and Sherten Apostel were traded to Texas for Keone Kela last year.
After dealing with severe injury issues as an amateur — he suffered from a strained UCL in high school and had a screw put in his elbow as a college freshman after suffering two humeral fractures — as well as more minor maladies as a pro, Hearn was healthy for all of 2018 and threw more innings in a single season than at any point in his career. He struck out 140 hitters in 129 innings at Double-A. He remains a fairly spotty strike-thrower, but his three-pitch mix should enable him to continue to start, though probably as a 120 or 130-inning type rather than a true workhorse, which also makes sense considering Hearn’s health history. He has rare lefty starter velocity and generally sits 93-96. A 95 mph average fastball would rank third among southpaw starters in baseball, just behind James Paxton and Blake Snell. Hearn can dump in his average curveball for strikes and his changeup has slowly turned into an average pitch, too. The cambio may yet have some developing to do as Hearn worked more heavily off his breaking ball early in his career and has lost a lot of reps due to injury. He profiles as a fastball-centric No. 4 or 5 starter for us, though there’s a large subset of teams who think he ends up in the bullpen.
The timing of Martinez’s exit from Cuba led to a fairly limited market for his services since most teams had already spent their international bonus space on other players. He became the fallback option for clubs who were in pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, one of which was Texas, and he signed for $2.8 million in early-March of 2018. The timing of the deal, Martinez’s age relative to other first-year prospects, and the lack of game action he had seen since defecting made his early-2018 developmental path tough to anticipate. The Rangers ended up starting him in the DSL (government processes and paperwork probably had something to do with that) and then skipped him over the AZL and sent him to the Northwest League for the final two months of the summer.
His Fall League stint, though, was more telling. At that point, he had played enough to be sharp again, but not so much as to be gassed, and the opposing pitching in Arizona was an age-appropriate challenge while the NWL was arguably not. And Martinez’s showing in the AFL was fine. He has all sorts of tricks for trying to reach base; he’ll bunt for hits, he’ll show bunt and then try to poke liners over the heads of approaching infielders, he’ll occasionally walk toward the front of the batter’s box during the pitcher’s delivery and try to slash awkward contact somewhere while giving himself a head start down the line. Martinez’s bat head drags into the zone a little bit and while he can adjust his lower half to alter the vertical placement of his barrel, he can also get tied up by velo inside. He projects as a middling offensive player with plus speed, and a capable defender in center. He may be a second division regular but is probably a platoon or fourth outfielder on a contending team. He’ll get his first taste of full-season ball in 2019.
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Kellis HS (AZ) (TEX)
Age
18.8
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/50
45/50
30/50
55/50
45/50
55/55
Ornelas’ age on draft day likely buoyed his stock among teams that rely heavily on models to build their draft board, as models tend to move younger players up the pref list. Not only was Johnny O younger than most of his high school prospect peers, but potential shortstops with plus bat speed aren’t often available past the draft’s first few picks. Though his swing — both the bat path and his footwork — may need tweaks in pro ball, Ornelas is capable of clearing his hips and unloading on pitches on the inner half. He struggles to make impact contact on pitches in other parts of the strike zone, but his hands have promising explosion and could yield all-fields doubles power with refinement. On defense, Ornelas has plus infield actions, he’s a 55 runner with sufficient middle infield range, and he has a chance to be a 50 glove at shortstop. His bat would play everyday at second and short if the Rangers get the swing dialed in. If they don’t, he profiles as a good utility infielder.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from West Orange HS (FL) (TEX)
Age
20.2
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
50/60
30/55
50/45
40/50
55/60
The Rangers backfields are full of big, projectable frames. Seise is a 6-foot-2 scale model of Carlos Correa’s build, with square shoulders wide enough to use as a field goal crossbar. He missed all of 2018 due to rotator cuff surgery but was taking healthy hacks during 2019 spring training. Seise has power and he’ll occasionally show it to the opposite field in games, though his feel to hit is generally a little raw.
He’s a plus runner underway, but it takes him a few strides to really get going, and that lack of first-step quickness is also why some teams think he’ll move off short, though players like this are more frequently staying there. Assuming it’s fine returning from the surgery, Seise has the arm for anywhere on the infield. Staying at short takes some pressure off of what might be a suspect contact profile, as the power gives Seise a great chance of playing there everyday even if he whiffs a lot. Of course, if all of his issues are remedied then the ceiling is enormous, but until there’s evidence of that, Seise is a risky tools/frame bet coming off a serious injury.
Apostel was pilfered from Pittsburgh as the PTBNL in the 2018 Keone Kela trade. Though he is a big-framed guy who has already begun to see time at first base, he’s athletic for his size and should remain at third — for a while, at least. The likelihood of this is bolstered by the polished nature of Apostel’s bat. His feel for the strike zone and his timing are both impressive for his age, and he is adept at attacking early-count pitches he can drive, while taking tough strikes. It helps him run deep counts and walk as well as hit for power. These traits are conducive to quick development, which means Apostel has a better chance of reaching the majors while he’s still limber enough to play third for much of his first six big league seasons.
He could end up with a 50 bat, 60 power, high OBPs, and fine third base defense, which would make him a solid-average regular.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age
21.4
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
55/55
45/55
55/60
45/60
91-95 / 96
Rodriguez has a swing-and-miss heater that plays in the strike zone because of its spin and weird plane, plane caused by Rodriguez’s lowish arm slot. His breaking ball is blunt, but it has good pure spin, he commands it, and it plays up against righties because of his slot. The changeup is Rodriguez’s best secondary, and projects to plus, as does Rodriguez’s command, which is already advanced. The fastball/changeup/command concoction was poisonous to rookie-level hitters in 2018; Rodriguez struck out 82 and walked just eight in 63 innings of AZL and Northwest League ball.
The lack of a visibly excellent breaking ball causes some apprehension, but if everything else is a 60 or better at maturity, Rodriguez could be a good mid-rotation starter.
Moss was 16 years old for all but the final few weeks of the 2018 DSL season and he likely stayed down there due to some combination of immature physicality and the presence of Jayce Easley and Frainyer Chavez on the AZL roster. Moss is the most impressive athlete of the three, a compact little bundle of lightning with surprising power from both sides of the plate, and a good chance of playing defense up the middle somewhere, largely due to his speed.
Though both of Moss’ swings are fairly inconsistent (which should be expected for a switch-hitter this age), he’ll show you feel for both lift and contact at times, and he gets the most out of his little body without losing control of it. While there’s a large developmental gap between where Moss is as a defender right now and where he’ll need to be in order to stay on the infield, he’s a very athletic, very young player with tons of time to improve those things, and his physical gifts are so prominent that we anticipate he will. Up the middle switch-hitters with some pop, even if it’s just doubles power, are very valuable big leaguers, and not many prospects have a chance to become that kind of player. So while we acknowledge that Moss is very risky (he struck out 30% of the time in the DSL and any number of issues might befall him during his half-decade long trudge to the big leagues) there just aren’t many players in this system with that kind of ceiling.
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2014 from Evergreen HS (CO) (TBR)
Age
22.6
Height
6′ 4″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Cutter
Command
Sits/Tops
55/55
50/55
45/50
45/50
40/45
92-95 / 96
Burke got on a weighted ball program before the 2017 season and, perhaps more as a result of the physical conditioning aspect of the program, began improving. His ascent continued, and accelerated, during a 2018 that ended with a dynamite month and a half at Double-A Montgomery, during which he struck out 71 hitters in 55 innings.
Burke’s fastball plays up because he gets way down the mound and generates a lot of backspin on the ball, creating perceived rise. Changeup development seemed to occur in 2018, as the pitch was much different last year (82-85 mph, at times with cut) than it was in 2017 (78-80 mph), and it’s fair to speculate that something like a grip change took place here. Burke has two breaking balls that are both about average, though he uses the curveball pretty sparingly. Glove-side command of his cutter/slider makes him tough on righties. One source considers Burke’s delivery fairly easy to time because of its pacing, so maybe we need to see more curveballs as a way of disrupting timing. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter.
Drafted: 16th Round, 2015 from Bishop Eustace HS (NJ) (TEX)
Age
21.4
Height
6′ 5″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
50/50
50/50
55/60
45/55
90-93 / 96
Phillips walked a minuscule 2.7% of opposing Low-A hitters in 2018, and did so as a 20-year-old just a few years removed from New Jersey high school ball. His fastball approaches the plate at an awkward angle, enabling it to play in the strike zone despite fringe velocity. He throws a lot of right-on-right changeups — it’s his best put away offering, and also helps induce grounders due to its sink. While Phillips’ slurvy breaking ball is generic, he typically locates it off the plate where it can’t get hammered. On stuff, Phillips looks like a backend starter, but the ultra-efficient strike throwing could mean he has sneaky ceiling, even if the value comes from innings volume.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age
21.4
Height
6′ 5″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
55/60
30/55
50/45
40/45
55/55
Signed as a shortstop by Colorado, Gonzalez kept growing and growing and eventually became a lean, long-striding 6-foot-5, and was moved to the outfield. He’s grown into much more power than he had as an amateur and there’s still room on his frame for another 20 pounds or so, and with it might come monstrous power. That growth potential also creates risk that Gonzalez will eventually move to an outfield corner, which would make it imperative that his current strikeout issues, which stem from lever length, be remedied.
Even as a below-average runner from home to first, Gonzalez’s long, bounding strides enable him to cover lots of ground in the outfield, and there’s a chance his instincts still improve out there since he hasn’t played those positions for all that long. After it appeared things were starting to click for PGon during 2017 instructs, his 2018 season was discouraging. He’s only 21, so we’re hopeful that the bat improves enough for him to be quite good, though those chances seem smaller than they did last year.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age
22.7
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
60/60
50/50
40/45
40/40
93-97 / 99
Hernandez has not, as of yet, corralled the velocity he suddenly found a few years ago. When he first arrived in the U.S., he was an interesting pitchability sleeper, but he later found a lot more heat and will now touch 99. His delivery is violent and tough to repeat and his changeup is still a bit behind the rest of the repertoire, so there’s sizable risk Hernandez ends up in the bullpen, but sizable ceiling if he can refurbish his early-career command. The changeup doesn’t even really need to improve so long as Hernandez is locating his breaking balls to lefties. 2019 is his second option year.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age
18.8
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
155
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Splitter
Command
Sits/Tops
50/60
45/55
45/55
40/50
90-95 / 97
There are always a few little toy cannon hurlers with light speed arm actions floating around, and Henriquez, who spent 2018 in the DSL, is the latest. Despite measuring in at maybe, maybe 5-foot-10 (maybe), his arm generates mid-90s velocity that he has relatively advanced command of. He’s not a touch and feel strike-thrower, but he comes right after hitters at the letters, and instructional league opponents couldn’t help themselves but swing at his fastball up there. He also has great feel for spin, his split/change has natural tumble, and he’s so athletic and well-balanced throughout his delivery that you can kind of go nuts projecting on everything. You could argue that Henriquez is a right-handed Tim Collins, and that we’re too aggressive with his placement in this system, but he has a special arm and body control, and a better chance to start than lots of the more established pitching prospects in this org.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (SDP)
Age
21.0
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
206
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Cutter
Command
Sits/Tops
65/65
50/55
55/55
40/40
96-99 / 100
Acquired from San Diego for catcher Brett Nicholas, Clase was throwing very hard late in the year, sitting 96-99 during fall instructional league. His fastball has nasty natural cut action, especially when he’s working to his glove side, and at times his upper-80s slider has bat-missing vertical action. It often does not, and he throws a lot of 40-grade sliders. Kenley Jansen dominated for years with a naturally cutting fastball. It’s overzealous to assume that future for Clase, but cutters this hard don’t exist often. If he develops a more consistent slider, he could be a set-up type of reliever, a least. He’s Rule 5 eligible after this year.
Drafted: 33th Round, 2015 from Spartanburg Methodist JC (SC) (TEX)
Age
24.1
Height
6′ 6″
Weight
235
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Cutter
Command
Sits/Tops
70/70
60/60
40/40
94-98 / 99
There’s still hope that Pelham develops an extra grade of command in his mid-20s because he only began pitching as a senior in high school and was pragmatically moved to the bullpen in just his second full pro season, limiting his reps.
If he does develop an improved ability to locate, he could be one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball because he has such a dominant fastball. Not only does Pelham throw really hard, at times sitting 97-99, but his size, arm slot, and cross-bodied delivery create unique angle on his fastball, and hitters struggle to square it up. In a small big league sample last year, 77% of Pelham’s pitches were fastballs, which would rank 13th among qualified relievers. His upper-80s cutter/slider doesn’t have significant length to it, and it also needs improved location if it’s going to miss bats. Once in a while, elite relievers with a single, tyrannical pitch emerge. It’s possible Pelham is one of those, but it’s more likely his issues limit him to single, middle-inning bullpen work.
Drafted: 11th Round, 2016 from Twin Valley HS (PA) (LAD)
Age
20.9
Height
6′ 4″
Weight
195
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
55/55
55/60
40/45
40/45
93-97 / 99
One of the prospects acquired from Los Angeles in the 2017 Yu Darvish deal, Alexy has had two consecutive years of velo increase and now has a three-pitch mix, led by a mid-90s fastball and a good curveball. He has a grip-and-rip style of pitching that somewhat detracts from his command and creates a good amount of relief risk, but Alexy is working in the mid-90s as a starter and could have a monster fastball if he’s ever moved to the bullpen. He likely profiles as a three-pitch reliever, but he’s barely 21 and sometimes Northeast prep arms develop later, and there’s still changeup/command refinement to come here.
White hit .270 with a .340 OBP during each of his first two seasons, but hit for no power. Then he had a breakout 2018 (albeit at age 24), and hit .306/.388/.450 at Double-A Midland. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and hit well there while the industry properly evaluated his power. It’s below average, but White’s blend of bat control, hand-eye, feel to hit, and speed all make for a very favorable contact profile.
White had really only played shortstop until last year, when he began seeing time at second and third base. He fits best at second, but is fine at all three spots, and his plus speed might enable him to one day run down balls in the outfield as well. He’s a near-ready, multi-positional utility man who should provide the kind of defensive flexibility teams are starting to prioritize.
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Walters State JC (TN) (TEX)
Age
23.9
Height
6′ 4″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Cutter
Command
Sits/Tops
50/50
50/50
45/50
45/45
45/50
90-93 / 95
Martin’s 2018 was his first injury-free full season as a pro, but he was used out of the bullpen in health-friendly two and three-inning stints separated by several days of rest. He was also crushed underneath a landslide .443 BABIP and had a 7.28 ERA at Double-A.
He has back-end starter stuff but was part of the Rangers lefty bullpen competition during the spring. During that time, Martin worked in the 91-94 range; he can spot cutting and breaking stuff to his glove side, and his changeup is suitable for light usage versus righties. We still like him as a No. 4 or 5 starter type, though we could see justifying a bullpen move if the Rangers thought it was why Martin stayed healthy all last year. He seems likely to be a competent part of a pitching staff in some form, and had a good showing with the 2019 big club during spring training before being sent back to Double-A in late-March.
Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Lakewood HS (CA) (LAD)
Age
21.7
Height
6′ 5″
Weight
185
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
45/55
30/50
50/40
45/50
55/60
Davis had a mediocre statistical 2018, his first full year with Texas after being part of the prospect package Los Angeles sent in the Yu Darvish trade. But Davis and the Rangers seemed to be tinkering with his swing since his acquisition and by 2018 instructional league, his stance had closed significantly and Davis had changed the way his hands set up. The drop in his ground ball rate since coming over from LA — 38% with Texas, after close to 50% with the Dodgers — seems to corroborate the visual evidence of tweaks, so there’s a chance Davis’ 2018 was just the product of developmental growing pains.
Even at 21, Davis remains physically projectable and is likely to add more and more mass and strength to his giant frame as he enters his mid-20s. The lift and rotation in his swing appear suited for power production that might arrive in games when new muscle arrives on the body. Davis doesn’t track pitches well and he often appears imbalanced at the plate. We have him projected as a strikeout-prone third baseman who sells out for big power. He’ll need to improve a bit on defense to stay on the infield, but it’s unreasonable to expect most athletes this size to have total control of their bodies at this age anyway, so there’s cause for optimism on that end.
We’re still on Davis despite a bad 2018, and think he has some dormant thump that will make him relevant eventually.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (TEX)
Age
19.1
Height
5′ 11″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
25/50
40/45
20/40
40/30
40/50
50/55
Signed for $800,000, Garcia was a good catch-and-throw prospect with some feel to hit from both sides of the plate, but he was so physically immature early in his career that he struggled to catch pro-quality stuff. As such, he was handled pretty conservatively throughout his first two pro seasons despite his many polished attributes. He has thickened up a bit and made solid line drive contact from both sides of the plate last year, while appearing more able to deal with the physical grind of catching. He appears to be a promising backup catching prospect for now, though as he grows into his early 20s he may end up with some power, or such a strong hit tool that he profiles as an everyday player without it.
Drafted: 25th Round, 2015 from Petal HS (MS) (TEX)
Age
22.4
Height
6′ 5″
Weight
275
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
60/60
35/40
92-96 / 98
Evans has 40+ FV tier stuff and 35 FV tier control. He pumps easy mid-90s gas, his fastball has tough-to-hit, downward angle, and his breaking ball has vertical action, depth, and is consistently plus. When dialed in, Evans looks like an unhittable, high-leverage relief prospect, and he struck out a ludicrous 46% of his 2018 foes — nearly two batters per inning — last year. He’s a short strider who sometimes fails to clear his front side, causing his pitches to sail. His 2018 was much better from a strike-throwing perspective than 2017, but he still walked 12% of hitters faced, and he’s very fly ball prone due to where his fastball lives in the hitting zone. There’s some headwind, but also, utterly dominant stuff. Evans is a good bet to be a 40-man add after the 2019 season, so there’s about an 18-month window for player dev to impact him before he debuts.
Drafted: 30th Round, 2015 from Appalachian State (TEX)
Age
26.5
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
50/50
45/50
55/60
45/50
90-92 / 94
Springs is a changeup-heavy lefty reliever with a very average fastball/slider combo that plays against lefties due to his lower arm slot. Springs’ changeup’s spin rate is way down in the 1400 rpm range, creating bat-missing sink that enabled his change to have a 45% whiff rate last year. He was developed as a starter for a long time and only moved to the bullpen last season, when he broke out. He may be a candidate to be stretched out as a starter or multi-inning reliever during Texas’ rebuild.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from McEachern HS (GA) (TEX)
Age
21.1
Height
6′ 4″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/70
55/60
40/45
30/40
94-97 / 99
In high school, Speas was getting body and arm speed comp’d to Dwight Gooden. He would routinely work 93-97 and break off several plus breaking balls, so while most of the amateur side of the industry acknowledged that Speas’ wildness meant there was a strong chance he’d be a pro reliever, his perceived ceiling, were things suddenly to click, was enormous. The Rangers quickly moved Speas to the bullpen and he dealt with fastball inaccuracy for two years before succumbing to a torn UCL. He may be back for 2019 instructional league and is a long-term, high-leverage bullpen prospect.
Cody had a rocky career at Kentucky, always tantalizing scouts with stuff but struggling with health and control. The Twins made Cody their 2015 second rounder, but he didn’t sign and fell to the sixth round as a 2016 senior. Texas simplified his delivery in 2017, which probably contributed to a breakout year. He seemed likely to spend most of 2018 at Double-A and perhaps reach the majors in 2019, but he had elbow issues during the spring and didn’t break camp with an affiliate. His Arizona rehab was successful enough for Cody to get on a mound in games for a bit, but he felt continued discomfort and needed Tommy John. The mid-summer timing of the surgery means he’ll likely miss all of 2019, which means he’ll be back when he’s a few months shy of 26. The time crunch alone makes it likely that he ends up in relief, though Cody could move quickly and be a strong, late-inning piece when he returns.
Arias signed as an under-the-radar, 21-year-old Cuban defector in July of 2017. The 2018 season was Arias’ first full year of baseball since the 2014-15 Cuban Series Nacional because his defection, international signing rules, and the 2017 offseason led to an eon between actual games for him. He was a college-aged player in the Northwest League in 2018 and had a mandatorily strong statistical season, hitting .366/.451/.548 with Spokane. He continued a strong bat-to-ball showing during instructional league, looked good at several different defensive positions, and was then firmly on the pro scouting radar. He got some reps with the big league team during ’19 spring training.
For now, he looks like a possible infield utility piece with some contact skills, but it might behoove Texas to hit the gas on his development and promotion to see if there could be more here.
Injuries have plagued Matuella since college. His back, his elbow, a Tommy John, more back, the shoulder, more elbow. The Rangers pared down his repertoire and transitioned him into a multi-inning relief role fairly early in 2018. He was shut down with injury in July. In the fall, his velocity was back in the mid-90s but his secondary stuff wasn’t as crisp. Betwixt injured list stints early in his career, Matuella would flash No. 3 starter stuff. There’s a chance that comes back, but the injury history is suppressing how he’s viewed compared to other prospects and will likely impact the way Texas develops him, as evidenced by the 2018 bullpen move.
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from O’Connor HS (AZ) (TEX)
Age
19.6
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
150
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
35+
The middle infield exodus at Oregon State (Nick Madrigal and Cadyn Grenier were both going to be drafted high) made it seem logical that were Easley to matriculate to Corvallis, he’d start as a freshman. Because he lacks prototypical size, he’s exactly the type of prospect who teams would prefer goes to school and performs, to increase their collective confidence that he’s actually good. That Easley seemed likely to have the opportunity to do just that, and perhaps raise his draft profile considerably while in college, made it seem more likely that he would go. But, perhaps because he was seen so much by high-profile, draft-influencing executives due to high school teammate Nolan Gorman, teams felt strongly enough to pursue him now, and Easley signed as a fifth rounder. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm, he’s going to stay on the middle infield, he has fair feel to hit from both sides of the plate, and a little room for muscle on his frame. We have him just ahead of Chavez because Jayce has a little more room for physical growth, but they’re very similar.
Drafted: 22th Round, 2018 from Midland JC (TX) (TEX)
Age
19.8
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
35+
Chavez’s family fled Venezuela when he was an adolescent and ended up in Texas, where Chavez went to high school and junior college. He was a late-round pick in 2018 and immediately became of interest to pro scouts covering Texas’ AZL club thanks to his advanced switch-hitting prowess and fundamentally sound infield actions. A shortstop as an amateur, Chavez saw time all over the infield last summer and looked comfortable at each spot. His frame limits his power projection and makes it less likely that he does sufficient offensive damage to profile as a regular, but he looks like a potentially valuable, switch-hitting bench piece, which would be a great outcome for a 22nd round junior college draftee.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Venezuela (TEX)
Age
24.2
Height
6′ 5″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
35+
At his peak, Mendez had mid-rotation stuff. He was sitting 94-97 at times during the spring of 2015, his changeup was plus, and his slurvy breaking ball was at least average. Since then his health and stuff have waxed and waned. In 2018, his stuff looked more like that of a fifth starter. Then he suffered a UCL strain during 2019 spring training. He’s now an oft-injured 24-year-old backend starter prospect who may benefit from a change of scenery.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (TEX)
Age
21.8
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
220
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
There’s a whiff of Willians Astudillo to Pozo, who is also a big-bodied catcher who rarely walks or strikes out. While his peripherals aren’t quite as extreme as Astudillo’s (6% career walk rate, 8% strikeouts), Pozo has a better chance at actually catching. There’s also some off-field stink surrounding him, as Pozo was involved in the Rangers grotesque 2016 sexual assault/hazing scandal, which you should not search for if you’re reading this list at work or school. Dominican authorities and MLB investigated the incident, and Pozo was one of several players who were suspended for it. He may understandably be considered unacquirable by some teams for this reason, but this is where he falls in the system based solely on talent.
38. Jose Rodriguez, C
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (TEX)
Age
17.5
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
185
Bat / Thr
L / R
FV
35+
Rodriguez signed for $2 million during the 2018 IFA signing period. He’s a loose, rotational, left-hitting catcher with the agility and hands to catch, though he needs some technical refinement to shave a few tenth off his pop time. The attrition rate for teenage catching is very high, but Rodriguez is a strong, long term developmental project.
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Trevino and Whatley have big league gloves and leadership qualities but their bats might relegate them to third catcher duty. Whatley also has a hose. Morgan is a multi-positional player with some feel for contact and might be a bench contributor.
Huff has 70 raw power and blasts balls out to all fields. We doubt he catches, but the Rangers should keep trying. The rest of these guys are R/R profiles and need to mash. Reed and Terry are both about 260 pounds and have big power, but strike out. Reed leapt over Terry last year and had a good year at Low-A. Cordero and Martinez are more balanced, average hit/power types who have a better chance than the other two at playing some other positions. Cordero has seen time in the outfield corners, Martinez at third base. They could be bench contributors.
Granite was DFA’d by the Twins and acquired via trade. He’s an 80 runner with contact skills, his instincts in center field are not great, and he has to compensate for lack of strength in the batter’s box by using a very conservative swing. Aparicio has feel to hit and is fine in center field. His size and lack of power projection make a fourth outfielder ceiling a reasonable outcome, but probably not for a few years yet.
Basabe was a 70 runner in the fall and he might grow into some pop, but he is concerningly raw with the bat. Pena might turn into a utility infielder with some pop if he can become a 45 middle infield defender. He fits best at third. Rodriguez is a switch-hitting middle infielder with fringe bat speed. Florentino is a pretty projectable catcher and first baseman who has a nice swing and who walked a lot in the DSL last year.
Bird sits 90-92, has two good breaking balls, and 40 control. He could be a middle relief piece. Anderson was a shrewd pick out of Millersville University in PA. He was 95-97 during instructs and has an average breaking ball. Espinal sits 94-95 and has a power sinking changeup in the upper-80s. Beras is a conversion arm with plus-plus velo and little else, but it’s still fairly early in his on-mound dev.
Englert is a kind of funky 3/4s righty whose low-90s fastball has some tail. He has a fringe four-pitch mix. Dotson is a big, projectable lefty with an arm slot conducive to vertical movement. Tejeda was a 10th rounder from the Bronx. He has big arm speed but is very wild. Those three are all teenagers. King is 24, his delivery is weird, he throws 93-95 with tough angle, and has a good curveball. Hever Bueno has an 80-grade pitcher’s name. While he was at ASU, he was 93-96 with a plus slider at times and hurt at others. He’s had a TJ and is perhaps a bounce-back sleeper. Thompson is purely a physical projection bet with fringe everything at present.
System Overview
How long might this Ranger rebuild take? There’s a fairly young contingent of quality role players who will either arrive shortly or be around for a while. Rougie Odor is under contract through 2022 or 2023 depending on whether the team picks up his option, Nomar Mazara’s arbitration years run through 2021, and Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ronald Guzman won’t reach free agency for four or five years. Most of the 22 through 24-year-olds on this list are likely role players who will be up during that window.
But is there a tent pole star or two among them? Perhaps Gallo’s peak years will be of the four-plus WAR variety, but even the oldest among the potential homegrown stars — Taveras, Thompson, Tejeda, Seise — are probably a few years away, and not all of them are going to turn into that kind of player. The big league overlap of the short-term contributors and potential long-term stars may be fleeting.
Should Texas be proactive about choosing a competitive timeline and if so, how proactive? They could use the younger layers of talent to trade for big names who fit into the current 24ish-years-old core, especially if the front office feels pressure to win sooner than later. That means holding on to most of the players on the big league roster who have real trade value, and also that any influx of minor league talent (aside from what veteran reclamation projects like Drew Smyly can fetch in trade if they play well) may need to come from the amateur scouting arm of the org.
It also puts pressure on the new player dev group — Matt Blood, once the head of the 18U Team USA program, is the new Director of Player Development — to make what it can of the deep but somewhat homogeneous group above.
On Wednesday, the Texas Rangers agreed to a four-year contract extension with closer Jose Leclerc worth $14.75 million with two additional option years worth $6 million and $6.25 million, respectively. Leclerc, 25, was one of the most pleasant surprises on a rather dismal Rangers team in 2018 and ranked fourth in baseball among in relievers in WAR, behind only Blake Treinen, Edwin Diaz, and Josh Hader. Among all pitchers with 30 innings pitched in 2018, Leclerc ranked fifth in ERA (1.56), fifth in FIP (1.90), and 11th in strikeout percentage (38.1%).
Given Leclerc’s lack of leverage with four years until free agency, the contract is unsurprisingly not for a princely sum, and isn’t even in the same galaxy as the four-year, $42 million extension Craig Kimbrel signed with the Braves before the 2014 season. The extension buys out all of Leclerc’s arbitration years, possibly resulting in a six-year deal with the options. These types of arbitration year extensions may be rarer for relievers than you think; to my surprise, after a quick perusal of contracts, I only found seven pre-free agency relievers whose current contract involved a multi-year extension with option years: Brad Hand, Nate Jones, Chris Devenski, Sean Doolittle, Jeremy Jeffress, Tony Barnette, and Felipe Vazquez. While it’s certainly possible I missed a contract or two, showing this type of commitment to a reliever prior to free agency is not a run-of-the-mill occurrence.
One thing notable about Leclerc is how quickly he went from being an interesting-but-very-wild pitcher to one of the elite relievers in baseball. The ZiPS projection for Leclerc going into 2018 was a 4.22 ERA, 107 ERA+ season with an abysmal 51 walks in 70 1/3 innings, and ZiPS was not an outlier here. Now, in a sense it’s impressive that a pitcher forecast for that many walks could still have a projection that placed them around league-average, but baseball history is full of hard-throwing young relievers who never get over their propensity to issue free passes. A 5.1 BB/9 in the minors isn’t generally conducive to a long major league career. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and guest co-host Steven Goldman of The Infinite Inning banter about Luis Severino’s injury and the perils of spring training, Sonny Gray’s slider problem and the perils of player development, and Ben’s series at The Ringer about scouting past and present, then preview the 2019 Cubs (34:19) with The Athletic’s Cubs beat writer Sahadev Sharma, and the 2019 Texas Rangers (1:13:15) with The Athletic’s Rangers beat writer, Levi Weaver.
Brock Burke was a relatively obscure pitcher in the Tampa Bay Rays organization when I first wrote about him in 2017. He was performing well at the time — a 1.23 ERA through nine starts — but context was a mitigating factor. A blip on most prospect radar, he was facing Midwest League hitters in his third full professional season.
He’s no longer quite so obscure. Nor is he Tampa Bay property. In December, the Texas Rangers acquired the 22-year-old southpaw in the three-team trade that sent former top prospect Jurickson Profar to Oakland. His appeal to the AL West cellar dwellers was understandable. Burke fashioned a 1.95 ERA, and fanned 71 batters in 55-and-a-third innings, after earning a second-half promotion to Double-A Montgomery.
I recently asked Texas GM Jon Daniels about the deal that brought Burke to the Lone Star State.
“We’ve had a lot of conversations about Profar over the years,” Daniels told me. “This winter, after a number of talks, we defined what we were looking for. Our priority was to get a young starter who was at the upper levels, and [Burke’s] had a lot of things we liked. His trajectory is really interesting — from Colorado, not a ton of development at a young age. Sometimes guys from those cold-weather states need a little time to lay a foundation.”
Daniels brought up Tyler Phillips — “He really burst onto the scene with us last year” — as another close-to-home example. A 21-year-old right-hander from New Jersey, Phillips emerged as one of the Rangers’ better pitching prospects with a stellar season in the South Atlantic League.
Shohei Ohtani won’t be pitching this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and 2017 first-round picks Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay are a long way from reaching the majors, but this spring, several teams are experimenting with the possibility of two-way players — enough that it’s worth taking a closer look. If spring is a time to dream on lefty knuckleball pitchers who have been woodshedding in South Korea, then we can certainly spare a few thoughts for what might become a new breed of the 25th man.
Mind you, we’re not talking about a new generation of Ohtani clones. For these position players getting more serious about pitching, and the pitcher getting more serious about position play, the model is probably something closer to Brooks Kieshnick. A two-time winner of the Dick Howser Trophy in college for his double-duty work at the University of Texas, and then the 10th overall pick of the 1993 draft by the Cubs, Kieschnick more or less flopped in 113 games played for Chicago, Cincinnati, and Colorado from 1996-2001. He returned to the mound with the White Sox’s Triple-A Charlotte affiliate in 2002, and then with the Brewers in 2003-2004, where he livened up a pair of 94-loss seasons by hitting .286/.340/.496 with eight homers in 144 PA, and pitching to a 4.59 ERA and 4.13 FIP in 96 innings of relief work. He was more successful in the former year than the latter, totaling 0.8 WAR in his dual capacity overall.
The parallels of this quartet to Kieschnick aren’t exact, as each player has taken his own path, and each of these teams has its own vision of how this will work. In an age of longer pitching staffs and shorter benches, this nonetheless rates as a very interesting innovation, even if the returns don’t yield an Ohtani-level star.
Speaking of Ohtani, on the heels of a remarkable season in which he hit .285/.361/.564 with 22 homers and a 152 wRC+, and pitched to a 3.31 ERA and 3.57 FIP in 51.2 innings, he underwent surgery on October 1. The Angels are hoping to get his bat back in May, but he won’t pitch in 2019, which doesn’t rule out the possibility that they will have a two-way player on the roster at some point this season. Jared Walsh, a 25-year-old former 39th-round pick out of the University of Georgia, where he pitched regularly — most teams liked him more as a hurler than as a position player — in addition to playing first base, right field, and DH, is in camp on a non-roster invitation and pulling double duty.
Walsh, who bats and throws left-handed, hit a combined .277/.359/.536 with 29 homers while splitting his season almost evenly between the Halos’ Hi-A, Double-A ,and Triple-A affiliates. He played both outfield corners and first (he’s considered a plus defender at the latter position), and also made eight relief appearances — at least two at each stop — totaling 5.2 innings, striking out seven while allowing six hits and walking two. He pitched in some close games as well as some blowouts, taking an extra-inning loss at Inland Empire and notching a save at Salt Lake. Not that minor league reliever won-loss records mean anything, but he also went 1-1 in two appearances for the team’s A-level Burlington affiliate in 2016.
The Angels liked what they saw of Walsh on the mound enough to send him to the instructional league last fall. He received a crash course in mechanics and arm care, and reported to camp with the pitchers last week and began throwing bullpens. He sports an 88-91 mph fastball that can touch 93 or 94 mph (reports vary) and a slurvy breaking ball that he’s working to improve. The Angels believe he can pitch at the major league level in a relief capacity, though if he moves directly to the mound from a position (as he did in three games for Salt Lake), the team loses its designated hitter for the remainder of the game according to Rule 5.11(a)(14). Thus, that gambit might be saved for interleague games in NL parks.
“We feel like he can do both [roles] at the Major League level, especially with what he did last year offensively,” said new manager Brad Ausmus earlier this month.
“It’s exciting, but I’m trying to keep it simple,” said Walsh. “If I overthink it, things get too complicated. Just hit and pitch and have fun. I’m on the pitchers’ arm care program, so I’ll be doing that every day, but I’ll also be talking to the hitting coaches about hitting and all that stuff. Whatever the schedule is, I just figure it out that day.”
Walsh isn’t even the Angels’ only two-way experiment. They also sent Bo Way, a 2014 seventh-round pick who plays center field, to the instructional league, though he did not get an NRI to the big league camp this spring. Way, who’s another lefty/lefty, hit .312/.383/.376 last year, split between Double-A and Triple-A and made six appearances on the mound, whiffing five in 6.1 innings while allowing six hits, two walks, and two earned runs; twice he pitched in the same game as Walsh. Much further down the system, 2018 fifth-round pick William English was chosen as an outfielder and right-handed pitcher, though he didn’t make any game appearances in the Arizona League last season.
The Angels also planned to let former first-round pick and Baseball America Top 100 prospect Kaleb Cowart try pitching, because let’s face it, the hitting thing wasn’t working (.177/.241/.293 in 380 career PA, with even worse numbers last year). They lost him on waivers to the Mariners in December, however, and then in January, the Mariners lost him to the Tigers, who considered drafting him as a pitcher in 2010. He was considered a first-round pitching talent coming out of Cook High School in Adel, Georgia, where his fastball “sat in the low 90s with sink,” according to The Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2011.
Cowart has played every infield position and left field in the majors, and added right field to his resume while in Salt Lake City. He hasn’t pitched in a professional game yet, but as Tigers manager Ron Gardenhiresaid earlier this week, “We want him to get more involved in the pitching part of it right now. We know what he can do defensively… But he’s going to pitch for now. That’s the main reason we brought him in.”
Cowart has thrown bullpens in camp, but thus far, his control has been spotty. “He threw a pitch right over the hitter’s head and I was behind the screen. But it was right at my lips. I ducked and almost fell off the wheel,” said Gardenhire. “The ball came out of his hand really good, though. He has a nice breaking ball. But it’s going to be a process. He’s got arm strength, though.”
Speaking of former Baseball America Top 100 prospects, now-27-year-old corner infielder Matt Davidson made the list four times from 2011-2014, but has found major league success harder to come by, both with the Diamondbacks (2013) and White Sox (2016-18). He did show considerable improvement last year, hitting .228/.319/.419 with 20 homers, a 104 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in 434 PA — not great, but big steps forward from his 84 wRC+ and -0.9 WAR in 2017. Though he struck out 165 times in each season, his walk rate climbed from 4.3% to 10.5%, with his strikeout rate dipping from 37.2% to 33.3%.
Last year, Davidson proved to be the most effective and plausible choice among position players to take up more regular pitching duty. Amid a season that saw a record 65 pitching appearances by position players (not including Ohtani), he threw three scoreless innings in three appearances, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out two (Rougned Odor and Giancarlo Stanton). At Yucaipa High School in California, he served as a pitcher/DH and wore no. 51 in tribute to Randy Johnson. Fitting, as he was chosen by Arizona as a 2009 supplemental first-round pick.
Beyond Davidson’s results, which amount to small-sample success in very low leverage situations, he showed an average fastball velocity of 89.9 mph, and maxed out at 92.3 mph. According to Pitch Info, he also threw a curve and a changeup, though Statcast classified some of those changeups as sliders and others as split-fingered fastballs, and various reports confirm that he does have a splitter in his repertoire.
The White Sox nontendered Davidson in November, and while the Rays and Orioles showed interest, he eventually signed a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation with the Rangers earlier this month, so he’ll get to rib Odor, whom he whiffed on a slider on June 29. He’s not aiming to be the next Ohtani. Instead he’s planning to reprise last year’s mop-and-bucket duty, and will work his way to throwing bullpen sessions. Via MLB’s T.R. Sullivan:
“I don’t want to make it sound like I am going to the big leagues and be a good pitcher,” Davidson said. “I’m not trying to be one of the seven or eight relievers. I want to be the pitchers’ best friend. Nobody wants to go in when it is a 7-0 blowout. I want to be the guy that helps them out.”
Finally, moving in the other direction is the Reds’ Michael Lorenzen, a 27-year-old righty who doubled as a center fielder and closer while attending Cal State Fullerton. He was considered draftable in the former capacity, though concerns about his ability to hit for average led him to be favored as a pitcher — favored enough to be a supplemental first-round pick in 2013.
After starting 21 games in 2015, Lorenzen has made just three starts from among his 150 appearances over the past three seasons, all of them last year. In 45 total appearances, he threw 81 innings with a 3.11 ERA and 4.16 FIP; he struck out just 15.7% while walking 9.9%. While he can dial his fastball into the high-90s, it’s generally a sinker he’s throwing (40.8% of all pitches last year, according to Pitch Info) rather than a four-seamer (10.7%); his expansive repertoire also includes a cutter, changeup, curve and slider — enough pitches to start.
On the other side of the ball, after homering once apiece in 2016 and ’17 while making a combined total of 17 plate appearances, Lorenzen bashed four homers last year, one of them a grand slam; in 34 PA, he hit .290/.333/.710. Two of last year’s homers, and his 2017 long ball, came as a pinch-hitter, a capacity in which he’s been used 22 times in his four years. Overall, he’s hit .250/.276/.500 for a 101 wRC+ in 92 PA.
All of which is to say that the Reds had an inkling of the possibilities before. Now they’re looking to take advantage of that to a greater degree, and, with the support of new manager David Bell, have let Lorenzen help craft a plan, which takes a lot of coordination across the coaching and training staff to prevent him from overexerting himself. On the pitching side, they’re stretching Lorenzen out to be either a starter or a multi-inning reliever, while on the position playing side, he’ll be available as a center fielder, though he’s not vying for the starting job, for which top prospect Nick Senzel, an infielder blocked at both second base and third base, is competing. Via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon:
“It’s fantastic, the effort they’re putting in,” Lorenzen said. “A lot of the excuses were, ‘You know, we don’t want to overwork him.’ Well, let’s just sit down and talk about it then. They were willing to sit down and talk about it, which is one of the reasons why I love this staff so much and why I think the front office did a great job [hiring] this staff. They’re willing to find solutions for problems.”
…”We have the plan laid out. Everyone knows what I’m doing. When I need my rest, I will take my rest because I’m getting the work I need to get in, vs. me going out and getting extra work in all the time and wearing on my body.”
Said Bell, “I have to slow myself down, because I think it’s cool that he’s preparing himself the way he is … it’s very unique and pretty special that he can do it. I love his approach to it. He’s truly preparing himself to give as many options to our team to help us win. It’s nice.”
Because novelty — pitchers hitting home runs, position players taking the mound — enlivens the grind of the long season, rest assured that we’ll be following the progress of all of these players’ attempts to pull double duty, hopefully with some up-to-date scouting detail.
When publishing our lists — in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s version. Whose stock are we buying? This post represents our best attempt to answer all of those questions at once.
This is the second year that we’re doing this, and we have some new rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been a 50 FV or better in any of our write-ups or rankings. So while we think Austin Hays might have a bounce back year and be a 50 FV again, we’re not allowed to include him here; you already know about him. We also forbid ourselves from using players who were on last year’s inaugural list. (We were right about 18 of the 63 players last year, a 29% hit rate, though we have no idea if that’s good or not, as it was our first time engaging in the exercise.) At the end of the piece, we have a list of potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year. They’re unlikely to ever be a 50 FV or better because of their role, but they often have a sizable impact on competitive clubs, and readers seemed to like that we had that category last year.
We’ve separated this year’s players into groups or “types” to make it a little more digestible, and to give you some idea of the demographics we think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own with THE BOARD. For players who we’ve already covered this offseason, we included a link to the team lists, where you can find a full scouting report. We touch briefly on the rest of the names in this post. Here are our picks to click:
Teenage Pitchers
Torres was young for his draft class, is a plus athlete, throws really hard, and had surprisingly sharp slider command all last summer. White looked excellent in the fall when the Rangers finally allowed their high school draftees to throw. He sat 92-94, and his changeup and breaking ball were both above-average. Pardinho and Woods Richardson are the two advanced guys in this group. Thomas is the most raw but, for a someone who hasn’t been pitching for very long, he’s already come a long way very quickly.
The “This is What They Look Like” Group
If you like big, well-made athletes, this list is for you. Rodriguez was physically mature compared to his DSL peers and also seems like a mature person. The Mariners have indicated they’re going to send him right to Low-A this year. He could be a middle-of-the-order, corner outfield power bat. Luciano was the Giants’ big 2018 July 2 signee. He already has huge raw power and looks better at short than he did as an amateur. Canario has elite bat speed. Adams was signed away from college football but is more instinctive than most two-sport athletes. Most of the stuff he needs to work on is related to getting to his power.
Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value
This is the group that produces the likes of Vidal Brujan and Luis Urias. Edwards is a high-effort gamer with 70 speed and feel for line drive contact. Marcano isn’t as stocky and strong as X, but he too has innate feel for contact, and could be a plus middle infield defender. Perez has great all-fields contact ability and might be on an Andres Gimenez-style fast track, where he reaches Double-A at age 19 or 20. Ruiz is the worst defender on this list, but he has all-fields raw power and feel for contact. He draws Alfonso Soriano comps. Palacios is the only college prospect listed here. He had three times as many walks as strikeouts at Towson last year. Rosario controls the zone well, is fast, and is a plus defender in center field.
Corner Power Bats
Nevin will probably end up as a contact-over-power first baseman, but he might also end up with a 70 bat. He looked great against Fall League pitching despite having played very little as a pro due to injury. Lavigne had a lot of pre-draft helium and kept hitting after he signed. He has all-fields power. Apostel saw reps at first during instructs but has a good shot to stay at third. He has excellent timing and explosive hands.
College-aged Pitchers
It’s hard to imagine any of these guys rocketing into the top 50 overall. Rather, we would anticipate that they end up in the 60-100 range on next year’s list. Gilbert was a workhorse at Stetson and his velo may spike with reshaped usage. Singer should move quickly because of how advanced his command is. Lynch’s pre-draft velocity bump held throughout the summer, and he has command of several solid secondaries. Abreu spent several years in rookie ball and then had a breakout 2018, forcing Houston to 40-man him to protect him from the Rule 5. He’ll tie Dustin May for the second-highest breaking ball spin rate on THE BOARD when the Houston list goes up. We’re intrigued by what Dodgers player dev will do with an athlete like Gray. Phillips throws a ton of strikes and has a good four-pitch mix.
Bounce Back Candidates
The Dodgers have a strong track record of taking severely injured college arms who return with better stuff after a long period of inactivity. That could be Grove, their 2018 second rounder, who missed most of his sophomore and junior seasons at West Virginia. McCarthy was also hurt during his junior season and it may have obscured his true abilities. Burger is coming back from multiple Achilles ruptures, but was a strong college performer with power before his tire blew.
Catchers
We’re very excited about the current crop of minor league catchers. Naylor is athletic enough that he’s likely to improve as a defender and he has rare power for the position.
Potentially Dominant Relievers
These names lean “multi-inning” rather than “closer.” Gonsolin was a two-way player in college who has been the beneficiary of sound pitch design. He started last year but was up to 100 mph out of the bullpen the year before. He now throws a four seamer rather than a sinker and he developed a nasty splitter in 2017. He also has two good breaking balls. He has starter stuff but may break in as a reliever this year.
Hunter Pence was born in Fort Worth, Texas, played high school ball for Arlington (manning shortstop his senior year), and then played college ball for Texarkana College in Texarkana and UT Arlington back home. Two years later, he hit .283/.357/.533 with 28 home runs and 95 RBIs for the Double-A Hooks in Corpus Christi in 2006, then .326/.387/.558 in a brief stop in Triple-A Round Rock to start off the 2007 campaign before finally making his debut for the Astros on April 28th. Friday, his decades-long quest to play at least one game for every amateur and professional team in the great state of Texas reached a new and likely final phase, as he signed a minor-league contract with the Texas Rangers worth $2 million if he makes the club.
There was a time not too long ago when Pence couldn’t be had for a sum as small as $2 million, not even for a few months of play, but those days are well behind us now. Pence’s batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, isolated power, BABIP, walk rate, and wOBA have each dropped in each of the last three seasons. Last year, he was worth -0.9 WAR for the Giants in his sixth full season for the team. That team, mired in fourth place and under new management, had no place in its outfield for Pence (the old guard did give him a custom scooter), and when it became obvious that the end of this five-year deal was the end of the road in San Francisco, it wasn’t clear whether the 35-year-old would play at all in 2019.
He will, at least in springtime in Arizona, and that’s a small blessing to us all. Pence has always seemed like one of those guys who might have invented baseball accidentally had he been born into a world in which it did not exist. Ever-so-slightly bow-legged, tall, and lanky, he doesn’t look like someone who should be among the very best at what he chose to do, but he was for a time and maybe still can be in Texas. At the plate, he often coils backwards, hands hidden behind his torso, then unspools violently like a length of chain pulled suddenly taut. Eyes wide and utterly fixated on wherever the ball has gone, he is prone to regain his balance and, arms and legs flying, careen into first and beyond, if he can make it. Pence at his best is a joy to watch play the game.
And he has been, at points in his career, a player to rally around. Pence’s first seasons with the Astros, as the team eased out of the Biggio-Bagwell-Berkman-Beltrán era that peaked with a 2005 NL Championship, and began their slow descent into the sordid Yakety Sax years, did not do much to burnish Pence’s national star even though he quietly put up four-and-a-half extremely solid years in Houston. When he was traded to Philadelphia, mid-way through 2011, Pence had accumulated 14.4 WAR at just 28 years of age. That’s not a Hall of Famer, but it’s a player well worth having. An NLDS run with the Phillies in 2011, on the tail-end of their dynasty, put Pence on the map, until he finally caught on with a team at the right time with the Giants in 2012. That run produced three titles (two for Pence) and also this hilarious video which I hope he recreates with the Rangers this year:
“Hunter helped lead the charge to our World Series in 2012,” former Giants’ GM Bobby Evans told me this week, “and his bat and leadership drove us to another World Series in 2014. He plays each game like it’s his last, and will forever be a fan favorite in San Francisco.” Well, he hasn’t played his last game yet: Pence says he’s changed his swing significantly this year, so maybe there’s a few more miles left in the tank. Texas doesn’t really need outfielders, what with Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields, Jr., and Nomar Mazara all already in the fold (and Willie Calhoun available in reserve besides), but they could use a strong bench bat or two and there’s no clubhouse in baseball that couldn’t use Hunter Pence.
I’m never optimistic about players’ ability to re-tool their games after 35 — this is increasingly a young man’s sport, and there’s precious little margin to get it right — but in Pence’s case I hope I am wrong, and that Pence makes the roster and contributes for Texas this year. Hunter Pence is not like many we’ve seen before in this game, and we need more like him. He’s home in Texas now, ready for one more try.
Do you have a slightly used, not that expensive free agent who might make a positive contribution to a ballclub in the 2019 season? Maybe a backup catcher known for handling pitchers well? A starting pitcher with a recent history of Tommy John surgery? An older reliever with a little success last season? What about an aging utility infielder who can’t seem to get any good offers? If so, the Texas Rangers are interested. In a busy offseason, the Rangers have added Jeff Mathis, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, Jesse Chavez, and Asdrubal Cabrera in free agency, and Drew Smyly in a trade with the Cubs, for a combined total under $60 million, with half that total going to Lynn. The team is continuing down the same road with relievers, inking the soon-to-be 35-year-old Shawn Kelley to a one year deal worth $2.5 million, per Jeff Passan.
It’s pretty clear the Rangers aren’t aiming to compete for a division title next season. Even after adding Kelley, the Rangers projected payroll is around $113 million, more than $50 million less than it was just two seasons ago. In what is pretty clearly a transition year, Texas has amassed a cadre of players with very low floors and middle of the road ceilings. The team doesn’t need Smyly, Volquez, and Miller to work out, but if one of them did, they might have a decent player to trade at the deadline in exchange for some prospects that can help in the future. Relievers always have some value at the deadline. In fact, the team just traded the recently signed Jesse Chavez when he was on their club in July, receiving Tyler Thomas in return. The Rangers aren’t likely to get much from Tyler Thomas, but if you can acquire enough similar players, some of them are bound to work out. That brings us to Kelley.
In 2015 and 2016, Kelley was a solid reliever for the Padres and Nationals, putting up a 2.78 FIP, a 2.55 ERA, and striking out a third of the batters he faced while walking just 6% of hitters. The 2017 season didn’t go so well. Kelley missed time with lower back problems, a strained right trapezius, and bone chips in his right elbow. He only pitched 26 innings, but gave up 12 homers and both his ERA and FIP were around eight.
Last season, Kelley gave up three homers in his first eight appearances, but was mostly fine all year. From May through the end of the season, Kelley had a 3.30 FIP and 2.72 ERA. His strikeouts and velocity were down a bit, but he his fastball/slider combination got the job done. The Nationals traded him to the A’s at the deadline for international bonus pool money after Kelley lost his temper during a blowout win in an otherwise lost season. The A’s had little problem with Kelley as the righty posted an ERA and FIP both in the low-twos.
Kelley could be the valuable reliever he’s been for most of his career and net the team a prospect at the deadline. Or he might be the less-good, hurt reliever from 2017. Either way, the Rangers aren’t taking a lot of risk to find out if Kelley can still get outs.
Taylor Guerrieri is a Texas Ranger now, having signed a free-agent contract with the A.L. West club on Tuesday. His MLB experience is scant. Originally in the Tampa Bay organization — the Rays drafted him 24th overall in 2011 — he debuted with the Toronto Blue Jays last September and tossed nine-and-two-thirds innings over nine relief appearances.
Guerrieri features a high-spin-rate curveball, but what he throws most often is a sinker. Per StatCast, the 26-year-old right-hander relied on the pitch 47.1% of the time during his month-long cup of coffee. I asked him about it in the waning weeks of his maiden campaign.
“The main thing with the two-seam is to stay on top of it and drive it downhill,” Guerrieri told me. “That way you get the depth you’re looking for. Horizontal movement isn’t a very good play. Guys can see side to side. They struggle with up and down, so the more depth, the better.”
Natch. The goal for a sinker is to make it sink, and what Guerrieri explained is part of Pitching 101. As for grips… well, those are more nuanced. In Guerrieri’s case, they can also be a bit of a moving target. Read the rest of this entry »
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