Archive for Blue Jays

In Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday night, John Schneider’s Blue Jays pulled off a dramatic comeback in the bottom of the seventh inning that sent them to their first World Series in 32 years. The heroics came courtesy of George Springer, who hit a go-ahead three-run home run. But first, Schneider himself made a big decision in the top of the inning. With two outs and no one on base, Cal Raleigh stepped up. Two innings earlier, he had smashed a solo shot to give Seattle a 3-1 lead. Schneider wasn’t interested in facing him; he put up four fingers and called for the intentional walk.

Intentionally walking someone with the bases empty is a statement of strong fact: We absolutely cannot allow this person to hit a home run. To be fair, that’s definitely how Schneider felt in that moment; a home run would have been backbreaking for his team’s chances. Raleigh hit 60 of them in the regular season, so he’s obviously a pretty reasonable guy to fear when you’re specifically afraid of homers. But Josh Naylor, due up next, is a good hitter, too. And baserunners are bad in general. What did the math say about this move? Read the rest of this entry »

The year of the splitter has come and gone. Actually, those of us who follow these things closely know that both 2023 and 2024 were considered the years of the splitter, and then we established back in March that 2025 would be the year of the kick change. While major league pitchers ran a 3.3% splitter rate in 2025, the highest mark since the pitch tracking era started in 2008, that represented a jump of just 0.21 percentage points from 2024. It’s a difference of less than one splitter per team every three games. While the number is still going up, the big increases came in 2023 and 2024, and the pace fell off this year.

That graph makes it official. This isn’t the year of the splitter. But now let me add another line to that graph. That was the regular season. We’re in the thick of the playoffs, so let’s throw the postseason in the mix, too. If you saw that first graph and wondered why I left all that empty space at the top, well, now you know.

That’s more like it. October 2025 has seen a splitter explosion. The red line is always going to be more volatile than the blue line because the postseason is such a small sample, but even so, the playoffs have seen a 6.6% splitter rate. That’s not just the highest we’ve ever seen. It’s twice the rate for any regular season or postseason in the past 23 years. Maybe 2025 was the year of the kick change, but October 2025 is very definitely shaping up to be the month of the splitter. The playoffs aren’t even over, and we’ve already seen more splitters this October than in the postseasons of 2023 and 2024 combined. Read the rest of this entry »

The Toronto Blue Jays are headed to their first World Series since 1993 after defeating the Seattle Mariners 4-3 in a tense seventh game, thanks largely to yet another seismic postseason moment forged by the bat of George Springer. Three nights after he was laying in a heap at home plate, having been kneecapped by an errant mid-90s fastball, Springer added to his already legendary postseason résumé with a three-run home run against, ironically, another fastball tailing in the direction of his knees. The blast was a microcosm not only of Springer’s season (by wRC+ he posted the lone below-average offensive season of his career in 2024, and then set a career-best in 2025) but also of Toronto’s as a group, as the Jays led the majors in comeback wins during the year.

Julio Rodríguez cut the ribbon on Game 7 with a leadoff double, and came around to score a few batters later when Josh Naylor ripped a single just beyond the outstretched glove of a diving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Thereafter, Seattle’s first-inning rally was stemmed by one of the weirder double plays you’ll ever see, as Naylor did a 180 leap into Ernie Clement’s throw to first base and, after discussion, the umpires decided to rule both runners out, Naylor on the force and batter Jorge Polanco via Naylor’s interference.

Toronto responded with a run of its own in the bottom of the first. A Springer leadoff walk and a Guerrero single (it was fortunate for the Mariners that Guerrero’s 110-mph hit was only a base hit) set the table for an eventual Daulton Varsho RBI knock, but after that, Seattle controlled most of the game. Read the rest of this entry »

In his first postseason since signing a 14-year, $500 million extension, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has powered the Blue Jays to within one win of their first trip to the World Series since 1993. The 26-year-old slugger continued his October heroics during Sunday night’s ALCS Game 6 in Toronto, helping the Blue Jays stave of elimination at the hands of the Mariners by clubbing his third home run of the series and sixth of the postseason while also displaying a key bit of baserunning savvy. Guerrero has rebounded from a season-ending slump to put up some absolutely astronomical numbers this fall.

Sunday night’s game didn’t start out that way for Guerrero. As they had done in Games 1 and 2 in Toronto, and Game 5 in Seattle, the Mariners kept him from doing major damage through his first two plate appearances against starter Logan Gilbert. In the first inning, with Nathan Lukes on first, Guerrero chased a low slider and grounded softly into a forceout. In the second, with the Blue Jays having rallied for two runs and with George Springer on first, he hit a scorching 116-mph grounder to the left side, where third baseman Eugenio Suárez made a diving stop, then threw to second from his knees to end the inning.

That 116-mph exit velocity was Guerrero’s hardest-hit ball of the postseason, and the eighth-hardest contact of any player this fall; the other seven, by the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Schwarber, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Judge, all went for hits. No such luck for Vladito. Read the rest of this entry »

Facing elimination in Game 6 of the ALCS, the Blue Jays were right where they wanted to be. Back in Rogers Centre, where they had the best home record in the majors during the regular season, the Jays defeated the Mariners 6-2 on Sunday night to force a decisive Game 7. On the other side, looking at an opportunity to advance to the World Series for the first time in franchise history, Seattle was wholly unprepared to meet the moment. The Mariners committed three errors, grounded into three inning-ending double plays, and just couldn’t keep up with Toronto’s relentless offense.

Trey Yesavage, making just his sixth start in the big leagues and second in this series, held the Mariners to two runs in 5 2/3 innings. His splitter was particularly nasty; he threw 31 on Sunday, the most he’s thrown in a big league start so far. He earned 10 whiffs on 17 swings (a 59% whiff rate) with that tumbling offspeed pitch and induced two critical double plays with it in back-to-back innings.

In the third inning, after the Jays had scored two, the Mariners quickly built an opportunity to strike back. J.P. Crawford walked to start the inning, and after Dominic Canzone struck out, Leo Rivas lofted a 360-foot single off the top of the right-center wall. Crawford misread the fly ball and remained too close to first base, so by the time center fielder Daulton Varsho played the carom and fired back into the infield, Crawford had only advanced to second base, meaning Rivas had to hold up at first. Instead of having two runners in scoring position with one out and the top of the order coming up, the bad baserunning had put the Mariners in a textbook double play situation. Nevertheless, after Julio Rodríguez walked to load the bases, it looked like Cal Raleigh, whose 57.7% fly ball rate was the highest in the majors this season, would at least be able to lift a sacrifice fly to get the Mariners on the board. But Yesavage buckled down, turned to his trusty splitter, and got Raleigh to ground into an inning-ending double play on the first pitch of the at-bat. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners and Blue Jays came into Game 5 of the American League Championship Series knowing a five-hour flight lay in their future. What they didn’t know was which team would have a happy flight from Seattle to Toronto and which team would spend the time in the air stewing. It took a long while to figure it out. It wasn’t until the eighth inning that Seattle third baseman Eugenio Suárez finally decided to take matters into his own hands. With a two-homer, five-RBI performance, including a go-ahead grand slam in that decisive frame, Suárez powered the Mariners to a 6-2 win. They now have a 3-2 lead in the series, leaving them one win from the first World Series appearance in franchise history. They will no doubt slumber peacefully as they wing their way to Toronto for Game 6 on Sunday.

Both managers were looking to mix things up on Friday. Toronto’s John Schneider mentioned in both the pregame and postgame press conferences that he wanted to avoid the familiarity penalty by making sure his relievers didn’t face the same batters over and over again. On the other side, Dan Wilson rejiggered his lineup with the goal of “just kind of jumbling it up and creating a different look.” He moved Julio Rodríguez into the leadoff spot, dropped the struggling Randy Arozarena to fifth, kept Cal Raleigh in the two-hole, and pushed Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor up to third and fourth. Suárez, struggling just as badly as Arozarena with a .162 batting average in the postseason, stayed in the sixth spot.

Friday’s contest featured a pitching rematch of Game 1 between Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller, when the two starters combined for just three earned runs over a combined 11 2/3 innings. They allowed even fewer runs on Friday. Their two approaches couldn’t have been different. Gausman avoided the top half of the zone at all costs, looking to induce chases on splitters that dived below the zone and earn called strikes on four-seamers that held their plane. Miller threw some splitters of his own, but he attacked with fastballs at and above the top of the zone. He also pitched with abandon. With ace Bryan Woo in the bullpen ready to pitch for the first time since September 19 due to pectoral inflammation, Miller emptied the tank. Both his fastballs averaged roughly 2 mph above their regular season marks. The starters picked up right where they left off in Game 1, facing four hitters apiece in the first inning and pitching around doubles to the opposing lineup’s big star. Miller touched 98 mph, struck out two and gave up a double to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., while Gausman rode his trademark splitter and allowed his own double to Raleigh. Read the rest of this entry »

You could be forgiven for having thought that Max Scherzer had reached the end of the line. For the second season in a row, the three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer missed significant time due to injuries, and when he was available, he struggled like never before. The 41-year-old righty put up the majors’ highest ERA in the first inning (12.96), had issues with tipping pitches, and after allowing 25 runs in his final 25 innings, missed the cut for the Division Series roster. Yet on Thursday, with the Blue Jays trailing the Mariners two games to one in the ALCS, Scherzer turned back the clock, holding Seattle to just two runs over 5 2/3 innings while an aggressive offense chased Mariners starter Luis Castillo in the third inning. With Andrés Giménez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both homering for the second straight night, the Blue Jays won 8-2 to even the series.

Scherzer, who had last pitched in a game on September 24, added to the Mad Max lore, displaying his legendarily competitive fire in the fifth inning. With two outs, a runner on first base and Toronto leading 5-1, manager John Schneider went to the mound to talk to Scherzer, who growled and chased the skipper away, struck out Randy Arozarena on a curveball in the dirt, then retired two batters in the sixth before finally getting the hook.

“I’ve been waiting for that all year, for Max to yell at me on the mound,” said Schneider afterwards. “It was awesome, I thought he was going to kill me.” Read the rest of this entry »

SEATTLE — There’s an age-old question among pitching philosophers. Should an approach focus more on the pitcher’s strengths or the hitter’s weaknesses? In my experience, pitchers do not ask themselves this question, though. They almost always prefer to pitch to their own strengths. They might tweak their strategy if a hitter has an obvious and exploitable weakness that they feel comfortable attacking, but mostly they’d rather stick to what they do best.

But what happens when what a pitcher does best aligns perfectly with what his opponent does best? When it’s not just that he’s ignoring the hitter’s weakness, but that he’s also pitching to the hitter’s strength? Game 3 of the ALCS between the Mariners and the Blue Jays gave us a data point to consider when answering that question. Toronto walked away with a 13-4 victory in Seattle to cut the Mariners’ series lead to 2-1, and did so by sticking to its strengths in the batter’s box. Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday night in Seattle, Logan Gilbert was on the mound gutting out two scoreless innings of relief a mere two days after he’d won the third game of the American League Division Series. That performance was do or die; hold the Tigers scoreless or head home for winter. The entire Mariners team contributed to that 15-inning win, never mind any knock-on effects for the pitching staff. A few days after that, on Monday in Toronto, Gilbert tried to reprise his heroic, short-rest effort against a relentless Blue Jays offense in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series.

The Mariners couldn’t expect to get a peak Gilbert start, so their bats had to put up enough runs to outrun the ongoing effects of the massive workload its pitching staff shouldered late last week. The offense delivered plenty of scoring, and the pitchers more than held their own despite the circumstances. When it was all settled in a 10-3 Seattle win, the Mariners were just two wins away from their first World Series appearance in franchise history. Read the rest of this entry »

It was really close. On Sunday, in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, in the top of the first inning, with one out and runners on first and third, once and future hero playoff hero Jorge Polanco hit a bouncer to the third baseman. The runner on third was going on contact, but the runner on third was Cal Raleigh, and while relatively quick for a catcher, the Sultan of Squat is not exactly known for his speed. Had the ball been hit anywhere other than directly at a corner infielder, he might have beaten it easily. Instead, Addison Barger’s throw beat Raleigh to the bag by at least three metres (the game was in Canada, after all). But it was still really close.

The throw arrived in plenty of time, and it was by no means off target. To make sure he ran no risk of hitting the runner, Barger wisely threw the ball toward the right side – the first base side – of catcher Alejandro Kirk’s body. The throw wasn’t high either, but it did arrive at shoulder height. Raleigh was running as hard as he could, and in the time it took Kirk to swing his catcher’s mitt from high on his right side to low on his left side, he’d closed the distance to roughly one metre. Then Kirk made an important decision. With Raleigh bearing down on him, he chose not to keep swinging the glove down and toward the plate. He reached out for a high tag and swept the left side of his body out of the way in the same moment. Self-preservation undoubtedly played a role in the decision. It cost him valuable centimetres (God, this feels wrong), and it very nearly allowed Raleigh to sneak his right cleat between Kirk’s legs and onto home plate before his torso crashed into the mitt. For the briefest of moments, the two catchers looked like colliding galaxies, smashing then spinning together as their gravitational fields intertwined:

In real time, the play went from looking like a sure out to an impossibly close call. Maybe Raleigh got his foot in there and maybe he didn’t. The call on the field was out, and unbelievably, the Mariners declined to challenge it. The video never got dissected by the replay room in New York. The chief marketing officer of Zoom Communications, Inc. surely wept. Read the rest of this entry »