Kevin Kiermaier is a Toronto Blue Jay. If that sounds like old news, it’s because it is, but now, after four days spent in limbo (a dangerous activity for those recovering from hip surgery), we finally have the contract details to prove it. The deal is for one year and $9 million, which pushes the Blue Jays payroll over the first luxury tax threshold of $233 million – a threshold they have never crossed before.

Pending further moves, Kiermaier figures to take over center field duties from George Springer, while Springer replaces Teoscar Hernández in right. This represents a significant offensive downgrade for Toronto – Hernández is one of the top 30 hitters in the majors, and Kiermaier is… not – but with Kiermaier in center and Springer moving to a corner, the Jays hope to field one of the better defensive outfields in baseball. Springer was worth 1 Out Above Average in 86 center field games last season, with above-average arm strength and outfielder jump. He figures to be an excellent protector in right. Kiermaier, for his part, is one of the most talented gloves of his generation. He ranks first among active center fielders in career DRS and UZR, and his 71 Outs Above Average lead all outfielders since the stat was introduced in 2016.

And as impressive as his career totals already are, Kiermaier isn’t exactly slowing down. Entering his age-33 season, he’s yet to show worrisome signs of decline in the field. We can’t read too much into his defensive metrics from last season (he only played 60 games), but his sprint speed was elite and his arm continues to be one of the strongest in the league. He was worth just 1 OAA, but his Statcast outfielder jump metrics were all in line with the year before, when he ranked in the 97th percentile for outfielder jump and 98th percentile for OAA:

Read the rest of this entry »

When I read today’s ZiPS projections for the Blue Jays, I was struck by one clear weakness: starting pitching depth. The team boasts an impressive lineup across the board, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. the closest thing to a weak spot. Toronto also has two borderline aces in Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

That sounds great, but the fourth and fifth starters are projected for a combined 1.7 WAR, which is wildly uninspiring. That hardly seems like a smart plan for a presumptive playoff team, but the Jays are no dummies. Those projections are now outdated — sorry Dan! — because Chris Bassitt is headed north on a three-year, $63 million deal, as Jeff Passan first reported.

Bassitt isn’t the best pitcher to reach free agency this season, but he’s squarely in the top tier. I ranked him 14th among the top 50 free agents this offseason, with only four pitchers ahead of him. Rational observers could certainly differ on that; he’s at the head of a large pack of starters who I think will deliver roughly equivalent value over the next few years. But the general point holds: he’s the kind of pitcher that you probably don’t want starting your first game of the playoffs but that you’d be ecstatic to have as a third starter. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

When you look at Toronto’s lineup, there isn’t much to complain about. ZiPS disagrees with Steamer on some of the individual players, but the overs and unders are pretty even, meaning that ZiPS thinks this will be as potent a run-scoring squad as Steamer does. Among the most notable projections? Many of the worries ZiPS had about Matt Chapman were resolved in 2022, while my system is a bit concerned about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s output after his Statcast data dropped back down to its 2020 levels. It’s still the projection of an All-Star first baseman, but it’s distinctly behind last year’s and certainly well off 2021’s elite performance.

Still, there are a couple of things to gripe about. Slowly transitioning George Springer to right field is a good idea given his age, and with Kevin Kiermaier signed, they’re at least moving him for an excellent defensive center fielder. Kiermaier has his own injury concerns, but there’s nothing keeping Springer from getting plenty of time in center as the Plan B. I think Springer is moving because the Jays have an option and the team is considering his health, as he’s actually held up very well defensively out there. But left field still projects as a “meh” position. ZiPS has never been a Gurriel fan, and the system agrees with Statcast that his 2022 batting average was a bit inflated; the loss of power is also very concerning. I’d love to see the Jays take a stab at a better option here, though players have been coming off the board quickly. Read the rest of this entry »

For the most part, projection systems fall in line with public perceptions of players. Yordan Alvarez is going to be very good next season, but Raimel Tapia won’t be. Shohei Ohtani is the eighth wonder of the world, and so on. But once in a while, they produce a head-scratcher that becomes the subject of debate. This leads to a lot of takes, some of them good but many of them bad. The worst are variations of “Projection X thinks poorly of Player Y, whom I like, and therefore it must be illegitimate.” They’re sometimes funny to read, though they’re mostly annoying because they stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of what projection systems are trying to achieve.

Let’s cut to the chase. The reason I’m writing about this is because Steamer projects Alek Manoah, who placed third in Cy Young voting and served as the Blue Jays’ ace, to put up a 4.09 ERA next season. That seems outlandish, even with the knowledge that projection systems are conservative by design. Manoah isn’t just a one-season wonder. His excellence extends back to his rookie campaign in 2021, and his sophomore effort seemed like a natural progression. The narrative is there: A great starter blossoms into a phenomenal one. Asserting that Manoah will go from an ERA in the low 2.00s to one in the low 4.00s is more or less a rebuke of it.

Of course, Steamer doesn’t think Manoah will land precisely on a 4.09 ERA – more on that later – but considering it’s the expected middle outcome, the shock is understandable. And while I’m not here to endorse it, I do want to point out that it’s not an indication the system is broken, or holds a grudge against your favorite player. You have your reasons, and so does Steamer. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2014 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Jeff Kent took a long time to find a home. Drafted by the Blue Jays in 1989, he passed through the hands of three teams that didn’t quite realize the value of what they had. Not until a trade to the Giants in November 1996 — prior to his age-29 season — did he really settle in. Once he did, he established himself as a standout complement to Barry Bonds, helping the Giants become perennial contenders and spending more than a decade as a middle-of-the-lineup force.

Despite his late-arriving stardom and a prickly personality that sometimes rubbed teammates and media the wrong way, Kent earned All-Star honors five times, won an MVP award, and helped four different franchises reach the playoffs a total of seven times. His resumé gives him a claim as the best-hitting second baseman of the post-1960 expansion era — not an iron-clad one, but not one that’s easily dismissed. For starters, he holds the all-time record for most home runs by a second baseman with 351. That’s 74 more than Ryne Sandberg, 85 more than Joe Morgan, and 86 more than Rogers Hornsby — all Hall of Famers, and in Hornsby’s case, one from before the expansion era (note that I’m not counting homers hit while playing other positions). Among players with at least 7,000 plate appearances in their career who spent at least half their time at second base, only Hornsby (.577) has a higher slugging percentage than Kent’s .500. From that latter set, only Hornsby (1.010) and another pre-expansion Hall of Famer, Charlie Gehringer (.884), have a higher OPS than Kent (.855). Read the rest of this entry »

It can be difficult to find the thing you didn’t realize you needed until you didn’t have it when it counted, or to offload it when you realized you had more of it than you could use. That thing, in this case: production from the catcher position.

Catchers are unlike infielders or outfielders, in that you can only one can play at a time. Or rather, two catchers can play at once, if one slides over to first base or DH, in which case the thing that makes them so special — the ability to slap on some plastic padding and soak up foul tips and 58-foot curveballs five nights a week — essentially goes to waste.

Consider Oakland’s situation; after developing Sean Murphy into one of the top catchers in the game, the A’s landed former top-10 pick Shea Langeliers in the Matt Olson trade. Langeliers reached the majors this year and hit fairly well, but not so well that he’s an ideal DH, which is where he made most of his starts on account of being blocked by Murphy.

Or how about the Blue Jays, who have not one but three starter-quality catchers? Alejandro Kirk emerged as a star in 2022, and Danny Jansen put up 2.6 WAR and a 140 wRC+ in just 72 games. That left Gabriel Moreno, one of the top prospects in baseball, even more blocked than Langeliers when he emerged as big league-ready late this season.

It makes sense, therefore, that trade rumors swirl around both Oakland and Toronto, as both teams could stand to cash in their surfeit of backstops for help elsewhere. Read the rest of this entry »

The Blue Jays and Mariners have swung the biggest trade of the young offseason so far, as Seattle has acquired Teoscar Hernández from Toronto in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect, Adam Macko.

For the Mariners, the calculus for this trade is simple: immediate improvement on the offensive side of things by adding one of the 30 best hitters in baseball. The table below shows hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season, ranked by wRC+:

That 132 wRC+ comes with a 26.7% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. That shaky plate discipline and a BABIP that ran well above average (.345) made it unclear whether Hernández could sustain this success. But changes to his stance and leg lift unlocked a part of his swing that allowed him to make hard contact in the air more consistently. Once a hitter figures out how to do that and has a 96th percentile average exit velocity like he does, the odds are in their favor.

This trade signals a few things from the Mariners. The first is that long-time outfielder Mitch Haniger is unlikely to return. That’s not shocking, given that he wasn’t extended a qualifying offer and that he seems to have already hit his offensive peak. The second is that they are going all in to try to catch the defending World Series champion Astros. Hernández is not a long-term addition; he’s under contract for just the 2023 season. This is, essentially, a one-year rental to goose the offense.

Shipping Swanson away isn’t ideal for Seattle, given his fantastic performance this season: a 1.85 FIP in 53.2 innings. But the team’s usage of him in the postseason — he only threw one inning in five games of play — suggests that he’s seen as expendable, making him an easy choice to include in a trade for a top-30 hitter. After all, even if the Mariners love Swanson’s pedigree and stuff, it’s always worth trading middle relievers for productive hitters, even if they have only one more year of team control.

That said, I’m a firm believer in Swanson. His whiff rates on his four-seamer and splitter are both well above average, and he seems to have perfected how to use them to go with his above-average extension and straight over the top delivery. The Jays’ most glaring weakness was their bullpen, so if their goal was to improve it, then they have succeeded.

The bigger question mark in the deal is Macko. He topped out this year with 38.1 innings in High A, striking out just under 36% of the hitters he faced, but he also walked 12% of them. He was solid with a 3.77 FIP and 3.21 xFIP as well. That’s all well and good, but with minor league pitchers, it’s always important to get to the good stuff — literally. So I asked Eric Longenhagen, who is constantly sourced for information, for the goods on Macko, and lucky for us, Eric got a few looks at him in the Arizona Fall League. Check out the video below to get a better look of Macko’s stuff and mechanics.

Per Eric, Macko had some Jekyll and Hyde characteristics in Arizona, with his secondaries and command coming and going depending on the outing. That makes sense, given his walk rates. When he was on, his stuff was interesting. He has two breaking balls: a curve of the loopy ilk that comes in at the low-70s, and a slider that’s more of a mid-80s gyro spin-dominant kind. Macko tended to pitch backwards in the AFL with those two pitches, adding a running four-seamer at 93–94 mph and topping at 96 to finish hitters off in the top of the zone.

To me, the most interesting tidbit was that Macko has rather short arms and as a result can get down the mound to a low release point. That’s ideal for getting whiffs and popups on fastballs at the top of the zone. By the looks of it, the spin is pretty true as well. It might not be perfect, but Macko’s fingers stay over the ball very well, which goes right in line with the pitch playing up the zone. The curveball might not have great specs on its own, but when paired with this deceptive fastball, hitters struggle to hit it. It’s the classic pairing of high four-seamers and big depth curveballs below the zone.

When Macko has command of the slider, it flashes plus. During the regular season, he used that pitch nearly a quarter of the time, and the fastball just about half the time. The curve had about a 15% usage; he also featured a changeup sparingly. Per Eric, that pitch also flashed plus when he used it. I know this all sounds exciting, but it’s always important to remind yourself that the saying of “if the command is there” needs to be at the forefront of your mind. This big “if” is enough to put Macko in the 45+ FV tier, rather than at 50 or above. But given that the Jays’ system isn’t too deep anymore, that will put him easily in their top 10 when Eric updates it.

To recap, the Mariners get a fantastic hitter to slot right into the middle of their lineup, and the Jays get a quality reliever and intriguing pitching prospect. This trade is likely only a prelude to more moves from the Jays, though; there are rumblings all around suggesting that George Springer’s time in center field will soon come to a close, and it seems like there is another play to be made there. After all, you can’t move a 130 wRC+ hitter for only a middle reliever and expect your team to improve. This is all speculation, but there is almost certainly more to come.

Tuesday’s 40-man roster deadline led to the usual squall of transaction activity, with teams turning over portions of their rosters in an effort to make room for the incoming crop of young rookies. Often, teams with an overflow of viable big leaguers will try to get back what they can for some of those players via trade, but because we’re talking about guys straddling the line between major league viability and Triple-A, those trades tend not to be big enough to warrant an entire post. Over the next few days, I’ll endeavor to cover and analyze the moves made by each team, division by division. Readers can view this as the start of list season, as the players covered in this miniseries tend to be prospects who will get big league time in the next year. I’ll spend more time discussing players who I think need scouting updates or who I haven’t written about in the past. If you want additional detail on some of the more famous names you find below, pop over to The Board for a more thorough report. The Future Value grades littered throughout these posts may be different than those on the 2022 in-season prospect lists on The Board to reflect my updated opinions, and may be subject to change during the offseason.

Baltimore Orioles

Current 40-man Count: 39
Added Prospects: SP Grayson Rodriguez (60 FV), SS Joey Ortiz (50 FV), SP Seth Johnson (40+ FV), SP Drew Rom (40 FV), MIRP Noah Denoyer (35+ FV)
External Additions: CF Daz Cameron (waivers from Detroit), C Mark Kolozsvary (35+ FV, waivers from Reds)

In addition to free agent departures (Rougned Odor and Jesús Aguilar to name a few), the Orioles primed space on their 40-man roster by outrighting several fringe big leaguers, and opened Tuesday morning with just 34 players on their 40-man. They’ve had an especially high rate of turnover at catcher over the last few weeks, as they let Robinson Chirinos walk in free agency, outrighted Cam Gallagher and Anthony Bemboom off the roster, claimed both Aramis Garcia and Mark Kolozsvary off waivers from the Reds, and then outrighted Garcia. I have Kolozsvary, who is still prospect-eligible, evaluated as a third catcher on the 40-man.

Mike Elias also scooped up old buddy Daz Cameron, who replaces Yusniel Diaz on the 40-man. Daz has been in “prospect limbo” for about a year, as he graduated from rookie status in 2021 but still spent most of this season in the minors. The 40 FV (a fifth outfielder eval) and tool grades assigned to him at that time still hold (you can see those on his player page), making Daz a defensive upgrade to Diaz (who was outrighted off the roster) and a L/R fit with a couple other Orioles outfielders (Kyle Stowers, Cedric Mullins, maybe some Terrin Vavra). Cameron is out of options while Ryan McKenna (who I preferred to Cameron as a prospect by the time he graduated) is not, so barring further moves I assume Daz is more likely to break camp with the big club at this point. Read the rest of this entry »

Addison Barger put up the best numbers of any hitter in the Toronto Blue Jays system this season, and he did so with a hitting style that was initially influenced by Ichiro Suzuki.

“I’m naturally a right-handed hitter, and actually switch-hit throughout high school,” explained Barger, who now hits exclusively from the left side. “At the time I started hitting left-handed, around 10 years old, I was obsessed with Japanese players and the Japanese style of hitting. A big leg kick was part of that, and it’s something I mimicked. It just stuck with me.”

That’s not to suggest the 22-year-old infielder profiles similarly to the Japanese icon and erstwhile Seattle Mariner that he grew up watching in Bellevue, Washington. That aforementioned big leg kick is one point of difference; while more pronounced during his NPB days and at times early in his MLB career, Ichiro’s was never as high as the one Barger currently employs. And Barger is no Ichiro-like slasher. The future Hall of Famer had a swing designed to slash line drives into the opposite-field gap. Barger’s M.O. is now the inverse. Indeed, as evidenced by the 26 home runs he hit across three levels, Barger is a basher. Read the rest of this entry »

Toronto Blue Jays – Entry Level Opportunities

The Toronto Blue Jays are seeking highly motivated and creative entry level employees to assist with day-to-day tasks within various areas of their Baseball Operations department, including but not limited to Scouting, Player Development, High Performance, and Research and Development/Analytics. The start and end dates are flexible depending on candidate availability and both full-season and partial-season candidates will be considered. These positions will be based in Toronto, ON; Dunedin, FL; or one of our affiliate locations throughout Canada, the United States, and Dominican Republic. All positions are paid.

There are several roles with different primary focuses, with more detail on each broad type of position provided below. To the extent that you’re interested in a specific focus you may reflect that in your application, but you only need to submit one application to the program and all applications will be considered for possible fits. These job categories are intentionally broad, and a successful candidate may be considered for a role that involves a blend of these responsibilities, or in an entirely different area that is more suited to their unique experiences and skills.

Across all roles, the Blue Jays are seeking:

• Demonstrated passion for baseball and excellent reasoning, problem-solving, creative thinking, and communication skills.
• Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals.
• Demonstrated ability to work independently and self-direct work.
• Excellent attention to detail and time management skills.
• The ability to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as required by the baseball calendar.

The Blue Jays see diversity and employment equity as foundational to creating a successful culture. Applicants who may not traditionally feel empowered to apply for a job in this field are strongly encouraged to apply. Please feel free to include any questions about the role with your application, or reach out to baseballresumes@bluejays.com.

Player Development Technology
In this role, candidates passionate about working directly with coaches and players will be embedded with teams at the Blue Jays’ development complexes (Dunedin, FL and Boca Chica, D.R.) and affiliate teams (Dunedin, FL; Vancouver, BC; Manchester, NH; Buffalo, NY). On a daily basis, you will be with your team as the point person for video, technology, and data resources. This may include helping to deploy and operate technology both in practice and game settings, organizing/cataloguing/reviewing video and data, helping to define and track player goals, and supporting longer-term R&D and Player Development projects. You will also assist with the logistical needs of the team (including Minor League Operations, Nutrition, and High Performance departments), as well as on-field activities (BP, fungos, catching pens). Fluency with Microsoft Office is required; experience with a range of baseball-related data capture systems (BATS, Portable Trackman, Rapsodo, Diamond Kinetics, etc.) would be helpful, as would experience with video editing and review software. Spanish proficiency is also helpful, and may be required in some cases.

Player Development Coaching
With roles at each of the Blue Jays’ development complexes (Dunedin, FL and Boca Chica, D.R.) and affiliate teams (Dunedin, FL; Vancouver, BC; Manchester, NH; Buffalo, NY), candidates interested in growing their careers in data-driven player development will support all functions of the team coaching staff. While helping players and coaches prepare for games on a nightly bases is a main focus, in this role you will have the ability to support and influence development goal setting and tracking, on-field practice design and implementation, and data tagging, organization, and review. In this role you will also support video and data capture in pre-game settings, documentation of action plans and other player updates, as well as supporting logistics related to player and coaching needs. Depending on the candidate, on-field duties (eg. coaching 1B, coaching/catching bullpens, etc.) may be part of semi-regular or regular duties. Experience with hands-on coaching of athletes is helpful but not required, as is experience with technical tools like SQL, R, or Python. Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office is a necessity, and Spanish proficiency may also be required in some cases.

Operations (Scouting, Baseball Operations, Player Development)
Candidates will use their excellent organizational skills and high attention to detail to support the logistical and administrative functioning of the scouting, player development, or baseball operations departments. This could include data entry and cleaning, assisting with the coordination and execution of player evaluation projects, maintaining and organizing video and data resources, and helping to stay on top of departmental administrative functions (expense reports, compiling statistics and rosters, meeting logistics, etc.). If supporting our Player Development department, you may be asked to help integrate technology into on-field work, administer player plans, translate documents to/from English and Spanish, and help with scheduling for players and staff. Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office, particularly Excel, is important for this role; familiarity with baseball rules and regulations could be an asset, and Spanish proficiency may also be helpful (or required in some cases).

Advance Scouting
In this role, candidates will use their strong knowledge of the game of baseball to support our Major League team in game-by-game and series-by-series preparation. This could include a wide range of activities, such as collecting and organizing statistics for reports, conducting ad-hoc research and analysis on players or baseball generally, watching video to provide written evaluations and insights, and supporting on-field data and video collection. Strong time management and organizational skills are important, and skills with things like R, Shiny, and similar tools would be helpful plusses.

Research & Development
Candidates will use their analytical and programming skills to help identify and research baseball questions. This may include using data organization and cleaning, modelling/machine learning, visualization, and statistical techniques with tools such as R, Python, and SQL. Experience with advanced modelling techniques or other specialized skills (Computer Vision, Neural Networks, Bayesian Modeling, Anomaly Detection, Time Series etc.) would be beneficial, but not necessary. You may present work to a variety of audiences (fellow researchers, front office members, coaches, or players), and may use the results of research to contribute to player evaluations at key junctures. Additional duties may include providing logistical support to major events on the baseball calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.) and other general departmental support.

Baseball Systems Development
Candidates for this role will help to create, update, and support web applications and databases that are used throughout baseball operations; a moderate to high level of experience in computer science, web and/or database development, software engineering, or a related field is quite important. A portfolio of work showing your past experiences in these areas is also helpful. Duties may include working with end users to gather requirements, engineering systems to acquire and database new datasets, or doing front-end web design work on baseball information systems. You will have the opportunity to experience and provide logistical support to key points on the baseball calendar.

Biomechanics/Sports Science
Candidates for this role have a strong academic background in Biomechanics, Physics, Sports Science, or a related field and are passionate about applying their expertise to baseball. This could be in a research/data analysis focused capacity, a role that is more hands-on with players and other development and performance staff, or somewhere in the middle. In all cases, you would work closely with player development, R+D, and high performance staff to collaborate on research, contribute to player development goals, and support data capture and organization. You would be expected to individually stay on top of the latest research and resources in the field of biomechanics and sports science. Experience with statistical programming, modelling, and visualization tools is very helpful, but not required.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Toronto Blue Jays.