The 40-man roster deadline led to the usual squall of transaction activity, with teams turning over portions of their rosters in an effort to make room for the incoming crop of young rookies. Often, teams with an overflow of viable big leaguers will try to get back what they can for some of those players via trade, but because we’re talking about guys straddling the line between major league viability and Triple-A, those trades tend not to be big enough to warrant an entire post.

Here I endeavor to cover and analyze the moves made by each team, division by division. Readers can view this as the start of list season, as the players covered in this miniseries tend to be prospects who will get big league time in the next year. We’ll spend more time discussing players who we think need scouting updates or who we haven’t written about in the past. If you want additional detail on some of the more famous names you find below, pop over to The Board for a more thorough report.

The Future Value grades littered throughout these posts may be different than those on the 2022 in-season prospect lists on The Board to reflect our updated opinions and may be subject to change during the offseason. New to our thinking on this subject and wondering what the FVs mean? Here’s a quick rundown. Note that because we’re talking about close-to-the-majors prospects across this entire exercise, the time and risk component is less present here and these FVs are what we think the players are right now. Read the rest of this entry »

Financial implications aside, how the Oakland Athletics fared in the August 1 trade-deadline deal that sent Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino to the New York Yankees in exchange for Cooper Bowman, Luis Medina, JP Sears, and Ken Waldichuk won’t be known for at least a few more years. Two of the players who headed west made their big-league debuts last summer, while the others finished their respective seasons in Double-A and High-A. The extent to which the foursome goes on to thrive — or flop — can’t be predicted with any degree of certainty.

David Forst is understandably bullish on the quartet. Three-plus months after he pulled the trigger on the trade, I asked Oakland’s GM what he found appealing about each acquisition.

“We think Waldichuk has a chance to be a top-of-the rotation arm, and we certainly saw glimpses of that in the big leagues,” Forst said of the 24-year-old left-hander, who is No. 69 our Top 100 Prospects list. “With him, it’s the physicality, the fastball command, and the swing-and-miss he gets with three different pitches. I think Ken has a huge upside.

“Upside is the whole conversation with Medina,” continued Forst. “Huge arm, huge fastball. Whether he remains a starter or not, we’ll see. He’s pitching really well in the Dominican [Winter League] right now. I know that he wants to remain as a starter, but he has to improve his command.” Read the rest of this entry »

Mini trade alert! Yesterday, the Seattle Mariners sent outfielder Kyle Lewis to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for outfielder/catcher Cooper Hummel. That’s the entire exchange – no other players, no cash, just a one-for-one swap. It’s not terribly exciting, but its simplicity makes it easier to break down. Shall we?

Two years ago isn’t a lot, but considering all the ruckus that has occurred between then and now – and I’ll spare you the loathsome, often non-baseball-related details – it might as well be forever. That’s also when Lewis won American League Rookie of the Year. After a lengthy detour caused by persistent knee injuries, Lewis seemed on a sure path to becoming an integral part of an up-and-coming Mariners core. But the hardship continued into his sophomore season due to another tear to the same knee that had been bothering him for years; he played just 36 games in 2021. And if that wasn’t enough, the already battered Lewis, who began his 2022 on the injured list, was hit by a pitch a mere week after being called up in May. He recovered, but struggled immensely at the plate. Eventually, the Mariners sent him back down to Triple-A Tacoma, where he wrapped up a grueling season.

Laid in front of us are four fragmented seasons, including a cup of coffee in 2019, from which to evaluate Lewis. The truth is, it’s a tricky task. When samples are small and distant from one another, distinguishing the effects of injury from random variance and a possible decline in skill is about as productive as imagining “what could have been.” But from a projection system’s perspective, a short resume actually paints Lewis in a positive light. Steamer, for example, forecasts a .240/.323/.426 slashline and a 110 wRC+ for 2023, likely because of his recent minor league output and the fact that most of his major league experience comes from an award-winning rookie season. The ceiling of an everyday center fielder still exists, and a 116 wRC+ in Triple-A last season that wasn’t BABIP-driven is reason for optimism. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball Research & Development: Analyst & Intern

Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Start date: ASAP, preferably by Jan 2023

Position Summary:
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ R&D department is seeking an Analyst and a full-season Intern. These positions will be responsible for supporting all areas of baseball operations through baseball related data analysis, including statistical modeling, research, visualizations, and other projects. The day-to-day responsibilities of this role will vary depending on baseball calendar, allowing them to gain experience in multiple areas of Baseball Operations.

Responsibilities:

• Statistical modeling, machine learning, and quantitative analysis of a variety of data sources, for the purpose of player evaluation, strategic decision-making, decision analysis, etc.
• Present analysis and insights to greater baseball operations group in clear concise manner through written and visual means.
• Maintain and develop understanding of current state of analytics and technology in baseball as well as using expertise to recommend new and emerging methods. 
• Use fresh perspective to recommend improvements to current Diamondbacks analytical processes.
• Perform ad-hoc research projects as requested.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in an analytical field such as statistics, predictive analytics, data science, engineering, applied math, physics, computer science, computer vision, etc.
• Analyst Specific: 1+ years’ work experience within an applicable industry or subject matter.
• Proficiency with database technologies including SQL.
• Demonstrated experience with programming languages (e.g., R or Python).
• Strong ability to communicate technical ideas to non-technical audiences using data visualization.
• High level understanding and passion for the game of baseball.
• Excellent work ethic and attention to detail while balancing multiple responsibilities in a fast-paced work environment.
• Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours.
• Other programming and database skills are a plus.

To Apply:
Interested candidates should send a resume and supporting materials to bbopsjob@dbacks.com. Please list which position you are applying to in the subject line.

Intern, Baseball Operations

Reports to: Director, Baseball Administration & Assistant Director, Baseball Operations
Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Length: Full-season internship, preferably starting in Jan 2023.

Position Summary: 
The Arizona Diamondbacks are seeking a full-season intern to work within the Baseball Operations group. The day-to-day responsibilities of this role will vary depending on baseball calendar, allowing them to gain experience in multiple areas of the department. A model candidate will be able to leverage their analytical skills, a strong sense of creativity and their knowledge and passion for the game of baseball to provide innovative ideas throughout the Baseball Operations decision making process.

Responsibilities:

• Collaborate across organizational domains (Analytics/R&D, Baseball Operations, Player Development, Scouting) assisting all departments with necessary tasks.
• Produce statistical analysis and daily reports for the entire baseball related staff.
• Continuously explore interesting research questions to identify new trends in the game that will lead to competitive advantages.
• Recommend advancements to the current Baseball Operations procedures and infrastructure to improve efficiency.
• Assist with the capture and processing of on-field technology at both Chase Field and Salt River Fields.
• Perform ad-hoc analysis and research projects for multiple departments within the Baseball Operations group.
• Assist Front Office Staff with preparatory work necessary for Salary Arbitration, the Rule 4 Draft, and the Major League Trade Deadline.
• Perform other related duties as assigned.

Qualifications:

• A degree from an accredited college or university and/or equivalent experience. Analytical fields such as statistics, predictive analytics, data science, engineering, applied math, physics, computer science, computer vision, etc. are preferred, but not required.
• A demonstrated quantitative background, either by degree or work sample, is strongly preferred (SQL, R, Python, Tableau, or other programming language).
• Advanced proficiency in Microsoft Office (Word, Excel, and Powerpoint) is required.
• A self-starter with strong administrative, organizational and communication skills.

• High level understanding and passion for the game of baseball.
• Excellent work ethic and attention to detail while balancing multiple responsibilities in a fast-paced work environment.
• Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours.
• Ability to relocate to Phoenix area.
• Must have a valid driver’s license. 

To Apply:
Interested candidates should send a resume and supporting materials to bbopsjob@dbacks.com. Please list which position you are applying to in the subject line.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Jordan Lawlar’s fifth stop in what was essentially his first professional season ended prematurely on Friday. Playing for the Arizona Fall League’s Salt River Rafters, the 20-year-old shortstop suffered a fractured left scapula after being plunked by a pitch. The injury — the second to put him out of action since he was taken with the sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft — will leave him on the shelf for a reported six to eight weeks. Fourteen months ago, he tore a labrum in the same shoulder after just a pair of games with the Arizona Diamondbacks’ rookie-league entry.

The progress he’s made in the interim is a testament to his talent. Advancing from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A Amarillo, with two stops in-between, Lawlar slashed .303/.401/.509 with a 138 wRC+ and 16 home runs in 459 plate appearances this season. A self-described “pure hitter who likes to just be athletic in the box,” the Dallas-area native is currently No. 42 in our Top 100 Prospects rankings.

Veronica Gajownik knows him well. An outfield and hitting coach in the Diamondbacks system, the former Team USA infielder worked with Lawlar in Amarillo this year, and more recently in the AFL.

“He wants to get better,” said Gajownik, who is on Salt River’s coaching staff. “He has a very open mind, and the determination to do what it takes to get to the big leagues. The effort level is great to see from someone his age.” Read the rest of this entry »

Before this year, it looked like Christian Walker might be washed up before he ever had a chance to shine, a player on the decline while breaking through. After a breakout 2019 that saw him finally step out of the shadow of the men he’d backed up (he was second in line behind Chris Davis, took a whirlwind tour through Cincinnati and Atlanta in a wild spring training of DFAs, and then landed behind Paul Goldschmidt), Walker’s career outlook appeared bright. But all that apprenticeship time hurt, and so did the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Walker put together another promising year – .271/.333/.459 with a markedly improved strikeout rate – but time simply wasn’t on his side. 2021 was his age-30 season, and also his worst big league campaign yet. He posted a below-average hitting line, lost power while striking out more often, and generally regressed across the board.

Some version of that story happens frequently in baseball. The whims of fate are cruel: baseball isn’t exclusively a young man’s game, but you have to be a very good player to hold a starting role into your 30s. Find yourself in the wrong system, or miss some time with injury, and you can be 30 before you know it, with only three years of service time and a tenuous major league spot. Corner infielders with average bats abound; they make a good living playing baseball, but they mostly bop around from team to team as waiver wire fodder and up-and-down platoon pieces. Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t generate a lot of national headlines these days, but the team’s ace, Zac Gallen, is trying his best to change that. Since a Luke Maile double knocked him out of a game against the Guardians on August 2, Gallen has racked up six consecutive scoreless games, covering 41 1/3 innings. Gallen’s run has gone on long enough to have historical significance: He currently ranks 17th in baseball history, at least the history during which usable game logs exist (since around the start of the 20th century). He’s two outs from catching Brandon Webb’s 2007 streak to set a new Diamondbacks franchise record, and another 3 2/3 innings will slot him into the top 10, tying his with the streaks of Cy Young, Sal Maglie, and Doc White.

Naturally, most streaks of this nature involve a player playing well above their established level of ability, and Gallen is no exception. But every pitcher with a scoreless innings streak this long was at least solid, with nary an incompetent journeyman in sight. Gallen is again no exception and was having a solid season even before the streak started. Entering play on August 2, he had an ERA of 3.24 and a FIP of 3.69 in 19 starts, above-average numbers, though not good enough to force his way into the Cy Young conversation. (Earlier today, Baseball Prospectus‘ Michael Ajeto published a deeper examination of some of the changes Gallen has made during the scoreless streak that is worth a read.) Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s something you probably already knew about me, or at least inferred: I love baseball. It would be hard and unsatisfying doing this job otherwise. Here’s something you might not have known, though: I don’t actually attend that many games. I watch tons of games on TV, and I spend tons of time analyzing individual snippets, but that doesn’t leave much time to go to the ballpark, grab a seat, and take in a game.

Last Thursday, I made some time. My mom is in town visiting, and the Giants were playing the Diamondbacks in a day game — Logan Webb against Zac Gallen, two excellent pitchers facing each other in a game that didn’t have a ton of playoff implications. My wife was able to squeeze in a bit of time away from work, so the three of us got cheap seats down the left field line, bought nachos and beer, and sat down for a relaxing afternoon.

The game writ large wasn’t particularly interesting. Webb didn’t have it; he didn’t strike out a single batter, and the Diamondbacks blooped and lined their way to five runs against him. Gallen was dealing; he went 7.1 strong innings with 12 strikeouts and nary a walk. Final score: 5–0, visitors. But baseball is amazing! In that boring, snooze-worthy game, I found four fascinating individual plays to talk about. So let’s talk about them, by themselves, without any need for a connection to the season as a whole.
Read the rest of this entry »

Raise your hand if you’ve thought about Luke Weaver in the past month. Anyone? No? Okay. As luck would have it, he did cross my mind recently. After Luis Castillo got shipped to Seattle, I joked on Twitter that the Merrill Kelly sweepstakes would commence, and a reply led me to compare Weaver to Kelly to Castillo:

Luke 'Merrill "Luis Castillo" Kelly' Weaver

— Justin Choi ?? (@justinochoi) July 30, 2022

Not exactly A-list material, I know. But the point is that Weaver shares similarities, albeit superficial, with the two other pitchers. Castillo and Kelly are both fastball-changeup guys; Weaver is also a fastball-changeup guy. So in sum, the Royals have acquired a bargain bin version of Kelly, who’s a bargain bin version of Castillo, at the modest price of sending infielder Emmanuel Rivera to the Diamondbacks.

Despite promising stuff and command as a prospect, Weaver’s career so far has been marred by inconsistency and poor health. He made his big league debut in 2016, spent most of ‘17 bouncing between Triple-A and the majors, became a permanent fixture of the rotation to open ‘18 before being demoted to the bullpen, and struggled with injuries in ‘19, making only a dozen starts. Nothing occurred health-wise in the shortened ‘20 season, but a right shoulder strain kept him off the mound for a majority of ‘21. He’s been healthy this season, thankfully, with his low innings total explained by the fact that he is now a full-time reliever.

That doesn’t sound all too exciting, but if you look closely enough, there’s still a good amount of potential left in Weaver. He’s quietly remodeled his changeup, and it looks better than ever. The table below shows how the pitch has progressed over the past three seasons:

The biggest difference: the changeup is getting way more drop than it used to, along with extra arm-side fade. (Here, a lower vertical movement number equals more drop.) Despite a small sample, we can tell this is a genuine development because of the physical properties of the changeup; it’s spinning on a different axis than before and seems to be benefiting from more seam-shifted wake. That explains why stuff models like Cameron Grove’s are appreciative of Weaver’s efforts, viewing the new and improved changeup as a plus offering. He has always been able to command the slow ball; this is the first time he’s backed that up with enhanced movement. Read the rest of this entry »

With their outfield (and whole roster, really) hit hard by injuries, the Rays acquired 34-year-old left fielder David Peralta from the Diamondbacks for 19-year-old catching prospect Christian Cerda on Sunday. The Freight Train is hitting .248/.315/.457, good for a 109 wRC+, which is in line with his career norm (111 wRC+), even though the shape of his production has totally changed.

Before we get into how that came to be, though, let’s take a moment to appreciate Peralta’s remarkable path here. Originally a left-handed pitcher in the Cardinals organization, he was released amid shoulder issues and played outfield in Independent ball for a couple of years before signing with the Diamondbacks in 2013. It’s borderline offensive to cram that stretch of Peralta’s career into one sentence. Indy ball isn’t exactly glamorous, and Peralta was broke and worked at McDonalds while waiting for the Diamondbacks, who he knew wanted to sign him, to free up the minor league roster space to do so. After he finally signed, it took only about a year for him to reach the big leagues, and Peralta has had one hell of a now nine-year MLB career, during which he’s been one of the better left field defenders in baseball (and has one Gold Glove), won a Silver Slugger during his peak year in 2018 (.293/.352/.516 with 30 bombs), led the league in triples twice, and endured wrist and shoulder surgeries while becoming a cult hero in Arizona. From a baseball role standpoint, the Rays are getting a platoon stick (.268/.325/.496 versus righties this year) and plus defender in a corner spot, but Peralta also brings the parts of himself that helped him grind through injury and Indy ball. Read the rest of this entry »