Archive for Diamondbacks

With Instructional League underway in Arizona (casts look of disappointment toward Florida) and Fall League rosters likely about two weeks out, the time has come to line the coffers with data and re-worked scouting reports in preparation for another round of farm system audits. Especially at the up-the-middle positions, defense is both very important and also a bit of a black box for readers, as there aren’t many publicly available minor league defensive stats and so much of evaluating defense is visual. I’ve recently been working on a video deep dive on the position players currently graded as 50 FV prospects or better, specifically to evaluate their defense in detail. Here I’ve taken a pass at the shortstops, providing video supplements for the prospects who I’ve evaluated in the 55 FV tier and above. I’ve made changes to their defense and arm tool grades over on The Board as a result of this exercise, and highlight the instances where this has caused a change to the player’s overall FV grade in the analysis below.

I’ve cut the videos in such a way that you can see each shortstop making similar plays one right after another. The videos feature plays to their left where I want to see them flip their hips and throw, plays that show the extreme end of their range, backhand plays in the hole to their right, plays coming in on the grass, and double play attempts. The fewest balls in play I watched for an individual player was 36 (Colson Montgomery and Dyan Jorge) and the most was closer to 70 (Jackson Holliday, Carson Williams and Marcelo Mayer). Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, the Rangers and Diamondbacks played a classic at Chase Field. It started as a pitcher’s duel between Jordan Montgomery, who pitched beautifully over eight scoreless frames, and a cadre of Diamondbacks pitchers led by bulk man Slade Cecconi, who allowed the only run of the first eight innings on a solo shot off the bat of Adolis García. Then, things got chaotic. From the ninth inning on, the game swung from an 88.4% chance of a Texas win to an 81.3% likelihood for Arizona, then back to 95.1% odds in favor of the Rangers before a final swing back to the D-backs on a Tommy Pham walk-off double. Not to be confused for the heart rates of each team’s fans Monday evening, the win probability chart came out looking like this:

Last week, Ben Clemens wrote about how neat Win Probability Added is, and its merits as a part of the MVP discussion. While Ben’s piece made the great point that WPA is not “just a storytelling statistic,” lobbying for its use in measuring value over a season, its storytelling powers are indeed pretty remarkable. So much of the drama within Monday’s game was made quantifiable by measuring the shifts in win probability. Ketel Marte’s game-tying homer in the ninth was worth .467 WPA, or 46.7 percentage points of win probability; Nathaniel Lowe’s go-ahead double was worth .454; Tommy Pham’s walk-off was worth .754, the 11th-highest WPA value for any single play this year. That’s three hits that turned the game on its head, and then back on its feet, and then back on its head again. Read the rest of this entry »

In an attempt to arrest a slide that began in early July, the Diamondbacks were busy in the run-up to the August 1 trade deadline, but so far, their moves haven’t been enough to turn things around. In fact, they have yet to win a game in August, having finished a seven-game road trip by losing six in a row to the Giants and Twins. On Sunday, their highest-profile deadline addition, former Mariners closer Paul Sewald, failed to retire a batter in his first save opportunity since the trade. Instead, he served up a game-tying homer to Max Kepler on his first pitch and then, after a walk, a two-run walk-off homer to Matt Wallner. Ouch.

After spending the majority of the first half leading the NL West, the Diamondbacks have slipped to sixth in the NL Wild Card race, 1.5 games behind the Cubs and Reds, who are tied for the third spot. Their trend is actually worse than that. Since winning on July 1 to lift their record to 50-34 and restore their NL West lead to three games, the Snakes have gone 7-22 (.241). That’s worse than the A’s (9-19, .321) or any other team in the majors. It’s not as though they’ve been particularly jobbed in the process; their Pythagenpat record is the majors’ worst in that span as well:

To be fair, the Diamondbacks weren’t expected to be a powerhouse this year; after going 74-88 last year, they projected for 78.4 wins via our preseason Playoff Odds. In a slow-starting NL West, they took over a share of first place for the first time on April 8, when they were 5-4, and finished the month 16-13, which was good enough to tie for first. Despite going 17-10 in May, they didn’t get a share of first place again until June 1, but they spent that entire month atop the division — most of it with sole possession of first place — while going 16-11.

It was around that time that Corbin Carroll’s season started taking an unfortunate turn. On June 29 — the same day he was named as a starter for the National League in the upcoming All-Star Game — the 22-year-old outfielder left a 6-1 loss to the Rays after four innings, having experienced soreness in his right shoulder during a third-inning plate appearance. It was the same shoulder on which he’d undergone surgery to repair a torn labrum in 2021, which cost him nearly the entire season. In the wake of his removal from the game, he underwent strength testing, which showed that his shoulder was strong and stable, but the Diamondbacks gave him a breather, limiting him to a single pitch-hitting appearance over the next three days. After returning to the lineup, he played just three more games before leaving the team’s July 6 tilt against the Mets in the seventh inning, once again in pain. “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb,” he told reporters. “I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.”

Despite his initial concerns, Carroll had not experienced a dislocation, and his MRI came back clean. He was back in the lineup the next day, and while he’s certainly had his moments since then — and hasn’t missed a game — his production and quality of contact are down considerably since the first incident:

Note that with two hits and two walks on Sunday, Carroll raised his post-July 1 wRC+ nine points; he was at 96 previously. Along the way, his swinging strike rate has spiked from 8.4% to 12.4%, and his chase rate from 28.8% to 32.6%, though his strikeout rate has barely budged, from 19.8% to 20.1%.

Maybe Carroll’s downturn in production is related to his shoulder woes, maybe it’s just the league adjusting to a player who looked like an MVP candidate early in the season, or maybe it’s just regression, more on which below. One way or another, it’s been poorly timed, in part because he’s not the only Diamondback who has tailed off in recent weeks:

Just four Diamondbacks have a 100 wRC+ or better since the start of July, one of them a catcher (Moreno) who has been limited to 11 of the team’s first 29 games in that span and is now sidelined by left shoulder inflammation. Moreno, Thomas, and McCarthy are the only three players with a higher wRC+ since the start of July than before, and they’re still below average offensively overall. Deadline additions Tommy Pham (from the Mets) and Jace Peterson (from the A’s) have yet to make an impact, going a combined 4-for-30, all singles.

Meanwhile, note that not only has Carroll fallen off steeply but so have Gurriel and Perdomo, both of whom joined him on the NL All-Star squad but might as well be on the side of a milk carton these days. Setting the narrative of Carroll’s shoulder injury to the side for a moment, this is striking:

All three players hit well above their Statcast expected stats through the end of June, particularly Perdomo, a slappy switch-hitter who doesn’t hit the ball hard at all; his season barrel rate is 1.2%, his hard-hit rate 19.9%. Then it’s as though the Regression Monster showed up and took a bite — each of these three players has seen about a 75-point swing in their wOBA-xwOBA differential.

Overall, the Diamondbacks hit .263/.330/.437 through the end of June, ranking fifth in the majors in scoring (5.11 runs per game) and seventh in wRC+ (106). Since then, they’ve hit just .227/.302/.373 while ranking 29th in scoring (3.44 runs per game) and 26th in wRC+ (83). Their performance against every major pitch type except changeups has fallen off by at least 50 points of SLG and 25 points of wOBA:

Yikes. They were punishing four-seam fastballs earlier in the season, but that’s stopped, and they’ve particularly gotten eaten alive by sliders and sweepers lately. What’s especially strange is the general downward trend of their more recent numbers despite the weather getting even warmer, which tends to increase offense. Of course, it’s as hot as the surface of Mercury in Arizona, so maybe the Diamondbacks have just wilted in the heat.

That does seem to be true with the team’s pitching, particularly the bullpen:

Good gravy. In writing about the Sewald trade — which sent Rojas and prospects Dominic Canzone and Ryan Bliss to Seattle — I noted that manager Torey Lovullo had been working with a matchup-based closer-by-committee system involving righties Miguel Castro, Kevin Ginkel and Scott McGough and lefty Andrew Chafin. However, I did not drill down to see just how bad things had gotten for them in the recent past. Using the July 1 cutoff again, with full awareness of the small samples in play, Ginkel has pitched well (0.75 ERA, 2.35 FIP in 12 innings), but the other three had been torched, with Castro (6.00 ERA and 6.60 FIP in 12 IP) the “best” of them, though he had stopped getting ninth-inning save chances, and Chafin (9.95 ERA and 5.63 FIP in 6.1 IP) and McGough (8.76 ERA and 6.91 FIP in 12.1 IP) utterly terrible. Chafin had two blown ninth-inning saves that led to losses in that span; he’s now a Brewer.

As for the rotation, it’s been pretty unstable, with Zac Gallen and rookie Ryne Nelson the only real constants, and both of them experiencing fall-offs since the start of July. Gallen pitched to a 3.02 ERA and 2.73 FIP in 104.1 innings through June, making his first All-Star team, but has yielded a 4.17 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 45.1 innings since, with his home run rate increasing from 0.6 per nine to 1.6. Nelson went from a 4.97 ERA and 4.44 FIP to a 5.59 ERA and 6.19 FIP, not that it should have been too surprising given his double-digit barrel rate even in the “good” times. Merrill Kelly, the team’s second-best starter, missed four weeks (most of July) due to a blood clot in his right calf but has been solid when available. Tommy Henry showed some improvement before being sidelined last week due to elbow inflammation. Brandon Pfaadt has been getting better results since being recalled on July 22 than prior, though his overall ERA of 7.11 in 44.1 innings is pretty damning. Also sporting an unsightly ERA (7.38) is Zach Davies, who has been dreadful on both sides of the divide while missing time with oblique and back injuries. Slade Cecconi, the team’s 2020 first-round pick, just made his major league debut on August 2 in place of Henry and acquitted himself reasonably well in a losing cause against the Giants, though his catcher (Herrera) had a rough time on the rookie’s first strikeout.

Given their current injury situation, the Diamondbacks now find themselves trying to stay afloat with just two starters who have demonstrated the ability to be league average or better, plus three rookies who have combined for a 5.63 ERA and 5.31 FIP. It’s not like the cavalry is on the horizon, either. The team’s playoff odds, which stood at 76.4% through the end of June (24.9% division, 51.5% Wild Card), are down to 21% at this writing, including just a 0.7% chance of overcoming their 8.5-game deficit to win the division. Considering that they lost 110 games just two seasons ago, they’ve certainly made progress to get to this point, but it seems quite apparent given their performance over the past five-plus weeks that they’re not quite ready for prime time.

Slade Cecconi must have been nervous. Staring down the first batter of his big league career, the 24-year-old couldn’t quite get on top of a 2-2 curveball. The looping pitch floated harmlessly past LaMonte Wade Jr., well above the strike zone for ball three. Wade called time out, and Cecconi used the respite to take a few calming breaths before returning to the rubber.

For the sixth pitch in a row, catcher Jose Herrera set up on the outside corner. For the sixth pitch in a row, Cecconi overthrew it, yanking a four-seamer toward the left-hand batter’s box. Wade had no time to react as it screamed in toward his hands at 94.8 mph. Only after the ball had made contact did he recoil, leaning away so far and so fast that he had to start jogging backward toward first base just to keep from falling over. Then things started to get stuck. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s something strange going on in the desert. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best stories in baseball this year, led by Corbin Carroll and a motley crew of veterans and rookies. An early season tear sat them atop the NL West, and we gave them an 80% chance of making the playoffs on July 1. Whoops – they’ve gone 8-16 since then, the worst record in the NL, and now they’re scrambling to make the playoffs. Time to make some trades!

Tommy Pham fits perfectly with what Arizona is going for. After a desultory three-year stretch from 2020-22 where he posted a 94 wRC+, he’s been one of the lone bright spots for the Mets this year. He’s hitting .268/.348/.472, and his quality of contact has been even better than that; he has a shiny .390 xwOBA and is smashing balls left and right. His plate discipline, always a strength, has never been better. He’s posted as much WAR this year as in those three previous ones.

The Diamondbacks could use that kind of production. They’ve relied on four regular outfielders this season, and only Carroll has been good. Jake McCarthy has an 85 wRC+ and the underlying stats to match. Alek Thomas checks in at a 79 wRC+. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the best of the group, but that’s faint praise; he’s hitting .249/.296/.448 with a 98 wRC+ himself. Murderer’s row, this is not. Read the rest of this entry »

When trades occur that aren’t quite big enough to merit their own post, we sometimes compile our analysis into a compendium like this, where we touch on a number of transactions at one time. In this dispatch, I’ll cover the Reds’ acquisition of Sam Moll from Oakland, the Cubs’ trade for Jose Cuas from Kansas City, and the Diamondbacks’ trade for Jace Peterson, also from Oakland.

While the two teams tilted at Wrigley, the Cubs and Reds added interesting relief options to their managers’ toolkits. The Reds traded hard-throwing prospect Joe Boyle to the A’s for lefty Sam Moll and international pool space, while the Cubs traded outfielder Nelson Velázquez to the Royals for sidearm righty Jose Cuas. Read the rest of this entry »

One day before the trade deadline, the Mariners kept busy by swinging a couple of trades with a pair of NL West contenders. They dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks in exchange for a three-player package — infielder Josh Rojas, outfielder Dominic Canzone, and middle infield prospect Ryan Bliss — that should help fill some holes in their lineup. To create the space necessary to fit the first two of them onto their 40-man roster, they also sent outfielder AJ Pollock, infielder Mark Mathias, and cash considerations to the Giants for a player to be named later.

Neither of the moves are blockbusters, and it’s worth noting the extent to which these three teams are clustered by record but have divergent Playoff Odds. A year after breaking their 20-season playoff drought, the Mariners (55–51) have played sluggishly; even with a 17–9 July, they’re a longshot for the playoffs, with 18.8% odds entering Tuesday morning. They’re fourth in the AL West, five games out of first place, and 3.5 back in the Wild Card race, with five teams ahead of them and in a tie with the Yankees. The moves they made could help them this year, but aren’t impactful enough to change their fate; they may help more down the road.

The upstart Diamondbacks (57–50), who were in sole possession of first place in the NL West as recently as July 8, made the more aggressive of the deals, befitting their need to improve their lot. They’re third in the NL West, 3.5 games out of first and in a three-way tie with the Brewers and Marlins for the third Wild Card spot. The Giants (58–49) are in the most comfortable position of the three teams: second in the NL West, 2.5 games out of first, and occupying the top NL Wild Card spot. Their trade might not amount to much more than taking a couple of flyers with comparatively little risk involved, and the possibility that a more substantial deal on Tuesday may make this one a footnote. Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline just a day away, at last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contenders. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used about 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, making exceptions here and there, but for the designated hitters, I’ve lowered that to zero, both to keep the list length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the second full season of the universal DH, exactly half the teams in the majors have actually gotten 0.0 WAR or less from their DHs thus far, five are in the middle ground between 0.0 and 1.0, and 10 are at 1.0 or above. DHs as a group have hit .242/.321/.419 for a 102 wRC+; that last figure is up one point from last year. This year, we’re seeing a greater number teams invest more playing time in a single DH; where last year there were three players who reached the 500 plate appearance threshold as DHs, this year we’re on pace for five, and the same is true at the 400-PA threshold (on pace for nine this year, compared to seven last year) and 300-PA threshold (on pace for 15, compared to 12 last year). That said, many of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

Strength up the middle is important to any contender, but with so many teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot, it’s no surprise some of them are have some weak spots. Perhaps it’s easier for a team to convince itself that the metrics aren’t capturing the entirety of a weak-hitting player’s defense if they’re playing a premium position, which seems to be the case at both catcher and center fielder.

While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. Interestingly enough, two of the seven teams below the WAR cutoff for right field also make the list for left field: one because it’s far below, and the other because it’s right on the line. I’m listing the capsules in order of their left field rankings first while noting those two crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 1 deadline, but these are teams to keep an eye upon. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are through July 26, but team won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through July 27. Read the rest of this entry »

With the August 1 trade deadline fast approaching, the question on every baseball fan’s mind is: Will the Los Angeles Angels trade Shohei Ohtani?

Or at least, it was the question on every fan’s mind. On Wednesday evening, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reported that the 52-49 Angels have pulled Ohtani off the trade market.

What this piece presupposes is: What if they hadn’t?

We compiled this whole thing before Verducci’s report (and the Angels’ subsequent trade for Lucas Giolito), and we’re going to run it as a thought exercise because we aren’t about to let Arte Moreno ruin our fun. That Ohtani is reportedly no longer available perhaps suggests that the real offers Perry Minasian and Co. received were underwhelming. So what would it take to pry Ohtani loose?

Others have taken that question for a spin, and now it’s our turn. Eleven members of the FanGraphs staff agreed to act as the GMs of opposing clubs and put their best proposal forward in an effort to land the two-way star. You’ll find those offers below. Teams are listed in descending order of their FanGraphs playoff odds. Prospect-eligible players have their Future Value grades noted in parentheses; you can find full scouting reports and tool grades for prospects and recent graduates on The Board.

And now, to the offers!

Los Angeles Dodgers
Angels Receive: C Diego Cartaya (55 FV), 2B Michael Busch (50 FV), SP Gavin Stone (50 FV), SP Nick Frasso (40+ FV), OF Jonny Deluca (40 FV)
Dodgers Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

Probably the last thing Arte Moreno wants to do is trade Shohei Ohtani to the team next door, but if he were willing to, I’d like to think this package from the Dodgers might look acceptable.

I used the 2021 Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster as a template, though in this case the All-Star hitter and All-Star pitcher being acquired are one and the same. In that deal, the Dodgers sent the Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray (55 FV), catcher Keibert Ruiz (55 FV), starting pitcher Gerardo Carrillo (40 FV) and outfielder Donovan Casey (not ranked) — and in that case they got an extra year of control (that of Turner) for the package. Here, with the competition so heavy, I’m going to have to include more talent and concede that extra club control while hoping that I at least get the inside track on retaining Ohtani once he hits free agency.

With All-Star catcher Will Smith in place and still with two years of club control, and with Dalton Rushing at High-A and likely to crack the Top 100 Prospects list next year, I’m headlining my package with Cartaya, a 21-year-old catcher who placed 28th on the Top 100 list this spring but who admittedly is having a rough first taste of Double-A. From the team’s wealth of pitching prospects, I’m tabbing Stone, who has scuffled in his three starts for the Dodgers this year but looks like a mid-rotation starter in the making, and Frasso, who was acquired in the Mitch White trade last summer and currently boasts a 32% strikeout rate at Double-A. I’m not opposed to swapping either of these pitchers out for Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, or even Emmet Sheehan, all of whom have more major league experience but probably lower ceilings.

I’m also including Busch and Deluca. Busch is a hitter with no clear defensive position (he can spot at second base); if this deal goes through, the Angels will have the DH slot open. Deluca is a fifth outfielder and depth piece, somebody with a big league future but not an overwhelming one. – Jay Jaffe

Tampa Bay Rays
Angels Receive: SP Taj Bradley, 1B Kyle Manzardo (50 FV), SP/RP Ian Seymour (40+ FV)
Rays Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani, RP Carlos Estévez, and C Gustavo Campero (HM)

In this league, teams are often wary of the risk associated with trading potential long-term pieces for a rental. However, much like the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Reds, the Tampa Bay Rays have plenty of prospect depth and young big leaguers to pull from. And while it sounds like Yandy Díaz will be able to avoid an IL stint for his recent groin injury, it isn’t totally clear when the team’s most productive hitter will be able to rejoin a lineup that is trying to reclaim its spot atop the AL East. That, plus a pitching staff thinned by injuries, makes it clear that reinforcements are in order and should be pursued aggressively. Thus, the Rays should propose the following deal: Taj Bradley, Kyle Manzardo, and Ian Seymour for Shohei Ohtani, Carlos Estévez, and Gustavo Campero.

Bradley is an obvious headliner for an organization that will need pitching following Ohtani’s departure. The Rays right-hander can be inserted near the top of the Angels rotation, and any deal between these two teams would most likely have to include him. From Tampa’s perspective, a rotation of Ohtani, Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, and Zach Eflin (Eflin left Wednesday’s start with left knee discomfort, though his initial MRI results were encouraging) would be the best in the American League and would provide sufficient justification for trading away a talented, controllable pitcher such as Bradley. Eflin’s injury hurts, but a playoff top three of Ohtani, McClanahan, and Glasnow is tempting. Manzardo is directly blocked in the majors by the likes of Díaz and the combination of Luke Raley and Harold Ramírez. He’s an upper minors first baseman and is expendable in the short-term. You build up prospect depth for moves like this. Lastly, Seymour is facing a 40-man roster crunch coming off Tommy John surgery but has potentially electric stuff. He’d have more of an opportunity to stretch out as a starter in an organization like the Angels.

Adding Ohtani the pitcher would extend an already good rotation, but the big premium here is at the plate. In the last two months, the Rays’ have run a 99 team wRC+, and the lineup suddenly looks closer to average than elite. Ohtani would help bolster an offense that has struggled against right-handed pitching – he boasts a 195 wRC+ and 27 home runs against right-handers, though he’s not exactly shabby against southpaws. In addition to Ohtani, Estévez would bolster a bullpen that has lost countless relievers to significant arm injuries. He’s under team control through 2024, and unlike other Rays relievers, he isn’t even a project. Lastly, Campero is a late-blooming catching prospect who could provide offensive impact at what might be the only weak position in the organization. Despite Edgar Quero being traded to the White Sox and opening up a promotion, he is still blocked by Logan O’Hoppe. – Esteban Rivera

Baltimore Orioles
Angels Receive: INF Joey Ortiz (50 FV), OF Colton Cowser (45 FV), SP/RP DL Hall (45 FV)
Orioles Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

More than just about any other team, the Orioles are in an enviable position when it comes to the Ohtani talks, able to trade what amounts to expendable, close-to-the-majors talent — and they don’t even have to touch Jackson Holliday.

This isn’t to disparage Ortiz (the 51st-best prospect in baseball), Cowser (the Orioles’ no. 6 prospect, who dominated Triple-A before his call-up), or Hall (the team’s no. 9 prospect), all of whom have what it takes to contribute at the major league level. Rather, the three are replaceable on the big league roster.

Ortiz was the best-ranked of the three prospects midseason, but he can’t consistently earn playing time on a roster that’s got Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías, Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo covering second, third, and short — Ortiz has just 34 big league plate appearances despite a 141 wRC+ in Triple-A.

Cowser is currently on the big league roster, though he’s off to a slow start with a 45 wRC+ in 42 PA. Of course, the Orioles wouldn’t trade him because of that, but his opportunities will probably dwindle when Cedric Mullins is back from the IL, and Heston Kjerstad (regarded as the better prospect and also capable of playing first base) is also knocking on the door.

Hall is the only pitcher in the proposed deal and also the biggest unknown; he’s been down in Sarasota working on regaining his velocity and just pitched for the first time at any level since June 14 in a game on Monday. But his strikeout stuff has been tantalizing when in the majors; he’s struck out more than a third of the opponents he’s faced in his 16.2 big league innings.

Ultimately, the always-straddling-the-line Angels would find themselves with three players they could have in the majors immediately or at least imminently. Ortiz could take over at second base for the struggling Luis Rengifo right away, and Cowser could take an outfield spot and a few half-days in the Ohtani-less DH spot. Even with his velocity in peak form, Hall carries significant relief risk, but he could shore up a bullpen corps that has Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Jacob Webb, and José Soriano as its only really trusted options.

And, of course, Ohtani would give a boost to an Orioles lineup that’s solid (11th in the majors in OPS) but lacks a truly terrifying bat, and bolster a middling rotation (15th in the majors in ERA) that’s currently relying on a breakout from Grayson Rodriguez as its best hope for a step forward. The O’s could easily accommodate the kind of six-man rotation that Ohtani’s been accustomed to, particularly with Rodriguez’s innings being monitored anyway. – Jon Becker

Texas Rangers
Angels Receive: CF Evan Carter (50 FV), 2B Justin Foscue (50 FV), SP Jack Leiter (50 FV), RP Kumar Rocker (40+ FV), LF Dustin Harris (40+ FV)
Rangers Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

I’m really hitting the gas here because I think Texas is the place where a two-month audition would be most meaningful to a club’s chances of signing Ohtani this offseason. Take him to a Cowboys game, romance him with what Texas has to offer at the cost of a slightly longer plane ride home, and remind him about the income tax rates in the Lone Star State relative to California.

I’m okay with coughing up Carter here because it looks like Leody Taveras has actually arrived. I’m personally kind of lukewarm on Carter (more on that here), but based on the types of players the Angels tend to acquire, I bet they’re not. The internet hype around Carter makes the optics of this deal with him at the center pretty attractive for the Halos.

Ditto for Leiter and Rocker, two marquee names Arte Moreno already knows. Leiter will probably be a solid big league starter, but I don’t think the Rangers would feel burned in a serious way by moving him within the division. Rocker I had evaluated as a reliever before his recent injury, and he seems fine to give up as a sweetener for the most talented player on the planet (he was the last guy I added to this offer).

Before you puke because this is too much to give up, remember that I’m essentially getting two players here. Texas doesn’t really have room for Justin Foscue on a star-studded big league infield, so he can go. Again, Foscue’s a good player, but he and Dustin Harris would both appeal to Anaheim’s statistical sensibilities in a way I’m eager to leverage because he’s superfluous to the Rangers for as long as the trio of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Josh Jung is hitting. Aside from the rehabbing Rocker, this entire offer is composed of near-ready players who can help make Los Angeles’ rebuild go more quickly. Texas would have Earth’s hottest ticket for three months, with the hope that Shohei likes the way the wind blows through his hair in Arlington and signs up for more. – Eric Longenhagen

Toronto Blue Jays
Angels Receive: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani, OF Jo Adell

Would the Toronto Blue Jays be bold enough to trade one of their cornerstones — a player with two-plus years of team control remaining who was born in Canada, no less — for a rental plus a former top prospect who has thus far fallen short of his potential? Probably not, but the idea has more merit than you might think. If I were Toronto GM Ross Atkins, I might very well get Angels GM Perry Minasian on the horn and ask if he would consider dealing Shohei Ohtani and Jo Adell for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Far-fetched? Assuming Minasian picked up the phone, not necessarily. Here is why the Angels might agree to the trade:

First and foremost, it seems unlikely that the Anaheim-based club will be able to re-sign Ohtani this winter, which makes trading him a good idea. That said, while the yield from a deadline deal would provide more bang for the buck than draft-pick compensation, it’s not as though a Juan Soto-like package is in the offing. Not for a player about to become a free agent. For that reason, acquiring a 24-year-old All-Star who could immediately replace Ohtani in the middle of the lineup is safer than betting on prospects who may or make pan out. It would certainly be more palatable to the fanbase. Rather than jumpstart a rebuild, why not retool and continue to (or at least try to) contend?

Here is why Toronto might propose the trade:

The Blue Jays came into the season with high expectations, and this would be a win-now move that could propel them to the World Series. Not only would the lineup get stronger, the starting rotation would as well. Their postseason odds would go up meaningfully, and a one-two-punch of Ohtani and Kevin Gausman is something no team would want to face in October. The short-term gain is obvious.

As for the long-term, this would indeed be a risky move for the Jays. Even so, the potential upside goes beyond a short-term, flags-fly-forever World Series run. Toronto is a multi-cultural city that Ohtani could easily fall in love with over the coming months, greatly increasing the chances that he’d choose to call Ontario home for years to come. As for Vladdy Jr., his wRC+ has fallen in each of last three seasons, dropping from 166 to 132 to this year’s 121. As a first baseman, is his long-term value going to be worth what he’ll be paid in Canadian or American dollars? Adel would be the wild card in this deal. At worst, the Blue Jays would have a depth piece who is under team control for several more seasons as consolation should Ohtani sign elsewhere. At best, Adel becomes the player many once envisioned. It’s certainly possible. – David Laurila

Philadelphia Phillies
Angels Receive: SP Ranger Suárez, 2B Bryson Stott, SP Mick Abel (55 FV), CF Justin Crawford (45 FV), SP Griff McGarry (45 FV), 2B/SS William Bergolla (40+)
Phillies Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani, 2B David Fletcher

The Phillies aren’t a favorite to land Ohtani, but after a couple of trades with the Angels at last year’s deadline that worked out well for both sides, maybe these two clubs can figure something out. After all, this is Dave Dombrowski we’re talking about. He pulled off the Miguel Cabrera trade. He pulled off the Chris Sale trade. He pulled off the Yoenis Cespedes trade – twice. Philadelphia might seem like a long shot for Ohtani, but no one is a long shot for Dombrowski.

The Phillies don’t have the big-name headliner the Angels are looking for – they aren’t selling low on Andrew Painter – but they can sweeten the deal with an extra top 100-type prospect. The Angels want two? The Phillies can give them three: Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and Justin Crawford. That’s two starting pitchers who could join the rotation by 2024 or 2025 and a center fielder of the future. On top of that, if L.A. is nervous about a deal centered around young pitching, Philadelphia can throw in William Bergolla. He’s only 18, but the young shortstop has plate discipline and contact skills beyond his years.

The Angels could also use some big league talent, so the Phillies can entice them with Ranger Suárez and Bryson Stott. Suárez has a lower FIP than almost everyone in the Angels’ rotation (including Ohtani), and he’s under team control for two more years. Stott is another young, talented infielder to pair with Zach Neto, and he won’t reach free agency until 2029.

Finally, it’s time for the cherry on top. One of Dombrowski’s most valuable skills as an executive is convincing ownership to spend, so Philadelphia can definitely take on a bad contract. Anthony Rendon is a bit too much to ask, even for Dombrowski, but how about David Fletcher? You have to think Perry Minasian would love the chance to erase a mistake from early in his Angels’ tenure.

Altogether, Philadelphia is offering high-upside prospects, controllable big leaguers, and a bit of financial freedom. Other teams have the high-end prospects to beat this offer, but it’s the best the Phillies can do without throwing in the entire IronPigs roster, the rights to the Phanatic, and the clubhouse kitchen sink. It’s not Jackson Holliday, but it’s a whole lot better than a compensatory pick. – Leo Morgenstern

San Francisco Giants
Angels Receive: INF Casey Schmitt, SP Kyle Harrison (55 FV), 1B Victor Bericoto (40 FV)
Giants Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

If I’m the Giants, I’m still reeling from 2021’s early playoff exit after a 107-win season, 2022’s utterly underwhelming swoon, and this past offseason’s Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa near-misses. Given recent history, the front office must be especially hungry to make a deep postseason run, and with the Judge and Correa budget largely unspent, they might also be ready to open up the checkbook for Ohtani this winter. But why wait?

To get the Angels interested, let’s start with Kyle Harrison. The left-hander breezed through the lower minors and debuted with Triple-A Sacramento this spring at the age of 21, which is more than six years younger than the average pitcher at that level. He’s experienced some growing pains this year in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but it’s really the first resistance he’s encountered in his young career. The Angels are already short on arms before dealing Ohtani, so a high-ceiling, near-ready pitching prospect could be a welcome centerpiece, as much as it would pain the Giants.

It’s too bad catching isn’t a big need for the Angels. The Giants seem inclined to hang on to switch-hitting rookie catcher Patrick Bailey, but Joey Bart or Blake Sabol could have been of interest if it weren’t for Matt Thaiss and Logan O’Hoppe.

Where the Giants can address another need is in the infield. There isn’t much in the way of infield depth behind 22-year-old Zach Neto. The Giants, meanwhile, are getting career-best years (or close to it) from Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr., and J.D. Davis, and have all but Davis under team control through at least 2025. Casey Schmitt – a versatile defender with some pop who debuted at the age of 24 in May – fits this deal well.

Power-hitting 21-year-old first baseman/corner outfielder Victor Bericoto, who just got the call to Double-A Richmond, rounds out the deal, giving the Angels another player with pretty clear potential to make a big league impact.

Three top-25 prospects is a scary haul to give up for two months of any player, especially with Harrison involved. But offer much less and Farhan Zaidi can expect to be outbid. If they’re able to keep Ohtani in San Francisco long-term, the cost to get him in the door will be soon forgotten. – Chris Gilligan

Arizona Diamondbacks
Angels Receive: SS Geraldo Perdomo, CF Druw Jones (50 FV)
Diamondbacks Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

I was assigned Kim Ng of the Marlins in the Effectively Wild version of this exercise. (It went very badly, thanks for asking.) So I called shotgun on Arizona for the reboot before the podcast went live. I figured the Diamondbacks were an ideal trade partner: They have needs at both DH and in the rotation, and their playoff fate is very much up in the air, so Ohtani could make as big a difference there as anywhere. The D-backs play in a park where Ohtani could put up truly hilarious offensive numbers, and they’re a fairly big-market team (even if they don’t always spend that way) with an up-and-coming core that could benefit from the additional shine. Plus, this would be a perfect time to cash in on Druw Jones, who’s one of the few prospects with enough star power for the Angels to sell to the public as an appropriate return. At the same time, he’s not too good to be untouchable from Arizona’s perspective. Jones is currently on the shelf with a hamstring injury, and questions are starting to pop up about whether he’ll reach the lofty ceiling that was projected for him out of the draft. Maybe he’ll straighten things out and get back on track, but the Diamondbacks could opt to move him rather than risk him losing “half the return of a blockbuster trade” value.

Then I listened to the podcast and Ginny Searle, playing Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, nailed it. The final offer: Jones, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Yu-Min Lin. I think that’s the perfect pitch, from Arizona’s perspective, and sure enough it won the whole thing. Now I not only have to land Ohtani for my beloved Snakes, I have to do it through different means.

So I’m going to start with Jones and add Geraldo Perdomo. You want pizzazz? How about one of the biggest stars in the minor leagues, the no. 2 overall pick a year ago? And on top of that, how about a 23-year-old shortstop who’s under team control through 2027, has a .389 OBP, and made the All-Star team this very year? If Ohtani is A-Rod, this is your Alfonso Soriano. Plus, it bears repeating, Druw Jones. Does that leave a gaping hole in my own infield? Yes. But if I have Ohtani I can figure it out later. – Michael Baumann

New York Yankees
Angels Receive: INF Oswald Peraza, SP Clarke Schmidt, OF Jasson Domínguez (50 FV), RP Chase Hampton (35+ FV)
Yankees Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

The Yankees haven’t shown nearly as much faith in Oswald Peraza as they have in Anthony Volpe, often passing over the former for veterans. Why is anyone’s guess, but Peraza would be extremely appealing to the Angels. His burgeoning 60-grade defense could slot in nicely next to Zach Neto up the middle for years to come. He’s no slouch with the bat, either: In 645 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s slashed .260/.337/.463 for a 106 wRC+, in line with his 108 mark in 118 major league PAs thus far.

High-floor, big league-ready talent? Check. Near-ready high-ceiling prospect? Jasson Domínguez fits the bill. The switch-hitting outfielder, already in Double-A at just 20 years old, has tremendous pop and speed despite some swing-and-miss to his game. If he doesn’t stick in center, it could spell trouble for his overall value. But the upside is power rarely seen at a premium up-the-middle spot, and Domínguez’s physicality just might be what it takes to unseat Mike Trout in center as the latter begins to decline defensively.

Another high-ceiling play is right-hander Chase Hampton, who we had as the Yankees’ 33rd-ranked prospect coming into this season after glimpsing a velo increase and a new cutter/slider in spring training. He’s taken his new tools and run with them, earning a promotion to Double-A after his first 47 pro innings came with a 40.5% strikeout rate in High-A.

Rounding out the deal is Clarke Schmidt. After posting a 6.00 ERA through his first 10 starts this year, the former first-rounder has refined his new cutter and come into his own; over his last 10 starts, he’s pitched to an even 3.00 ERA. While his FIP hasn’t changed much, the recent success is due to a newfound ability to limit hard contact: his barrel rate has shrunk 3.8 percentage points and his hard-hit rate has dropped 6.5. The cutter is especially improved — it’s averaging 1.2 extra inches of cut and 1.3 of drop since his 10th start.

If the Yankees make the out-of-favor Peraza the headliner, they could easily shift DJ LeMahieu over to third, where for the time being, he could approximate the youngster’s value. Ohtani, meanwhile, could slot right into Schmidt’s spot, and they could even go to a six-man rotation — as the Angels have — upon Nestor Cortes‘ return. As for Ohtani’s spot in the lineup, Giancarlo Stanton will have to spend more time in right field in order to free up the DH spot. But Big G hasn’t been a huge negative in the field; on a per-inning basis, he’s placed 341st out of 444 fielders with at least 100 innings under their belts in fielding run value. Plus, since joining the Yankees, he’s hit six points of wRC+ better when he’s been in the field. This deal — and its ripple effects — should ensure the Bombers another playoff spot. – Alex Eisert

Cincinnati Reds
Angels Receive: SP Brandon Williamson, SP Lyon Richardson (45+ FV), 2B Edwin Arroyo (45 FV), 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (45 FV)
Reds Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

What would it take for the Reds to make a play for Shohei Ohtani? When Effectively Wild played the Ohtani trade game last week, that was the question I tried to answer, assuming the role of Nick Krall to Ben’s Perry Minasian.

My proposal, which ultimately didn’t win out, was Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Edwin Arroyo, Brandon Williamson, and Lyon Richardson for Ohtani. Benasian turned it down, but I wanted to take another crack at making an argument for my offer.

I think this type of offer is realistically the best the Reds would do in this situation. It would be absolutely shocking to see Elly De La Cruz or Matt McLain move in a trade, so I can’t just throw one of them in to land Ohtani. Whether it’s justified or not, the Reds simply aren’t going to spend much money under the current ownership regime, so there’s no chance of Ohtani being extended. They’re also not going to trade away too much talent that they’ll have to replace later.

Encarnacion-Strand is still looking for a final defensive home, but the power is real and while ZiPS isn’t quite sold on him overall, especially as a starting third baseman, it sees him as having some .500 slugging percentage seasons in the majors. He’s also in the big leagues, and even if he turns out not to be the highest upside offensive player offered for Ohtani, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the safest bat we would see in an offer. I think this is important to the Angels; whether or not Ohtani’s gone for good, I don’t think this is a team with the stomach for a full rebuild. Williamson and Richardson fit along these lines. Neither has a super high ceiling, but both have a pretty high floor, as well as the ability to contribute quickly to a retooled Angels team.

Arroyo, on the other hand, does have a decent ceiling and was on our preseason Top 100, though his FV has slipped since then. His inclusion ensures the Angels get significant value for an Ohtani rental. The team is very short on middle infield prospects now that Zach Neto has graduated from eligibility, and there’s a long-term hole that Arroyo could fill here.

Is it enough? I’m not sure, but either way, I’m not going to try to do a bad Nick Krall impression again anytime soon. – Dan Szymborski

Seattle Mariners
Angels Receive: SP Bryce Miller, SP Emerson Hancock (45 FV), CF Jonatan Clase (45 FV), 2B Michael Arroyo (40+ FV)
Mariners Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

The Mariners will almost certainly be in the running to sign Ohtani this offseason once he hits free agency. The chants of “Come to Seattle” that rained down during the All-Star game made the fans’ hopes quite clear, and the Mariners would be remiss if they didn’t make a competitive offer for the generational talent this winter. But what about the 2023 season? The M’s have hovered around .500 for nearly the entire year, never creeping more than three games over that mark or falling more than five games below it. That has put them on the AL playoff bubble, though the strength of their pitching staff indicates they’ve underperformed a bit. Pushing all their chips in for a remote shot at a repeat postseason appearance would be a pretty big risk, though for Ohtani, it might be worth it.

The Mariners send: RHP Bryce Miller, RHP Emerson Hancock, CF Jonatan Clase, 2B Michael Arroyo.

Any trade package from the Mariners needs to start with one of their young starting pitchers. The Angels have struggled to develop impact talent on the mound and the Mariners are swimming in young pitchers with plenty of team control. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are probably off the table, so the M’s offer would be centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. I like Woo a little better than Miller because his secondary pitches seem a little more developed, but Miller has the best graded pitch between the two of them in his fastball.

Emerson Hancock has been a little inconsistent at Double-A Arkansas this year, but he’s a nearly big league-ready starter with a deep repertoire and enough prospect shine to be a nice complement to Miller. He’d be ready to contribute to the Angels rotation as soon as September. Clase has the big athletic tools that the Angels have so often coveted in prospects and he had a phenomenal start to the season in High-A Everett, posting a 197 wRC+ in 21 games there. He’s come back down to earth after getting promoted to Double-A, though his combination of power and speed should be enticing for the Angels.

Finally, with Cole Young looking like he’s on the fast track through the Mariners system and Colt Emerson and Tai Peete getting drafted this year, it seems like Michael Arroyo is getting buried on Seattle’s middle infield depth chart. That shouldn’t affect the way the Angels value him, and he has the potential to become the second-best prospect in this deal, though he’s still a little raw around the edges. He’s currently posting a 116 wRC+ as an 18-year-old at Single-A Modesto. – Jake Mailhot