The Padres and Dodgers submitted their rosters for the Division Series on Tuesday morning, a formality for most postseason series but one that this time around carried considerable intrigue. As was hinted by multiple reports in the 24 hours leading up to the deadline, the team has indeed included Mike Clevinger, who has pitched just one inning since September 13 due to issues with his biceps and elbow and who was left off the Wild Card Series roster, and furthermore, they have tabbed him to start Game 1. Dinelson Lamet, who similarly left his September 25 start with tightness in his biceps and missed the Wild Card Series, was not included.

To review: after throwing seven innings of two-hit shutout ball on September 13 against the Giants, Clevinger was scratched from his turn five days later against the Mariners due to soreness in his right biceps. After the team and the 29-year-old righty were reassured by a bullpen session on September 21, he started against the Angels two days later, and pitched a 1-2-3 first inning, striking out both David Fletcher and Mike Trout, but his velocity was down a bit, and he didn’t return for the second inning. The Padres said his biceps was bothering him again, and two days later, they revealed that he had been diagnosed with posterior elbow impingement (a side effect of inflammation) and given a cortisone shot.

Clevinger resumed playing catch on September 28 and then threw a 23-pitch bullpen session the next day, but was left off the Wild Card Series roster. After a higher-intensity bullpen session on Sunday, the Padres sounded notes of optimism that made their way into a handful of tweets suggesting he was likely to be added and to start Game 1. That is indeed the case. Read the rest of this entry »

Note: The Padres did indeed include Mike Clevinger on their roster, which was submitted on Tuesday morning, but not Dinelson Lamet. For more on the impact of both teams’ rotation and roster decisions, please see here.

Despite some nail-biting moments in their respective Wild Card Series, the Dodgers swept the Brewers and the Padres outlasted the Cardinals to produce a Division Series matchup that just so happens to pit the National Leagues’s two best teams by both won-loss record (the Dodgers went 43-17, the Padres 37-23) and run differential (+136 for the former, +84 for the latter) against each other. In that regard, it’s a pity the two teams only get a best-of-five series to settle things instead of a best-of-seven. With MVP candidates Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado — not to mention past MVPs Cody Bellinger and Clayton Kershaw — and perhaps some future Cy Young candidates, this one has the potential to be as entertaining as any later-round series.

The Dodgers, after playing at a 116-win pace during the regular season — not necessarily the best omen, mind you — never trailed the Brewers during the Wild Card Series. They didn’t exactly run away with things in their 4-2 and 3-0 wins, but none of their pitchers had to work back-to-back days. The Padres, who played at a 100-win pace but lost starters Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet to arm injuries during the final week of the season, won their first playoff series in 22 years, beating the Cardinals despite not getting more than 2.1 innings from a starting pitcher in any of the three games. They lost Game 1 and had to climb out of a four-run hole in the later innings of Game 2, but won the rubber match via a nine-pitcher shutout, an unprecedented postseason showing. Four of their pitchers worked all three games, though none threw more than three total innings.

During the regular season, the Dodgers beat the Padres in six out of 10 games, and outscored them 60-48. A single 11-2 win on August 13 — during which Chris Paddack was shellacked for six runs in three innings while Julio Urías pitched 6.1 strong innings — accounted for the lion’s share of that run differential.

Worth noting: this series will be played in the Globe Life Field, the brand new home of the Texas Rangers. It’s covered, and has artificial turf, and with outfield dimensions of 329′-372′-407′-374′-326′ from left to right, it’s shorter to the power allies but deeper to center field than its predecessor. It plays as a pitcher-friendly venue, and could help the more fly ball-oriented Padres staff more than the Dodgers. The 66 homers hit there this year ranked 22nd in the majors, so for all the power these two teams showed during the regular season, there may not be as many fireworks. Read the rest of this entry »

The first plate appearance of Game 2 in the Wild Card Series between the Brewers and the Dodgers went like this: a high fastball from Clayton Kershaw, coming in at 92.7 mph. A slider, fouled off by Avisaíl García. Then another slider — a swing and a miss. And then another slider, the best of all of them, for the strikeout.

That first plate appearance set the tone for the rest of the night. Though the 3-0 final score may suggest a close game, in reality, it didn’t feel all that close. Kershaw utterly dominated the Brewers, who, as the broadcast frequently noted, end their season never having cleared the .500 mark. Through eight scoreless innings of work, he struck out 13, allowing just three hits and a walk. It was one of the best postseason performances of his career, and it propels the Dodgers into the NLDS.

For the first four innings of the game, Kershaw and Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff — who hit a first-inning home run off Kershaw in the NLCS two years ago — matched each other blow-for-blow. Kershaw struck out two in the top of the first; Woodruff struck out two in the bottom. Kershaw retired the Brewers in order in the top of the second; Woodruff did the same to the Dodgers in the bottom half of the inning, adding two more strikeouts. In the top of the third, Kershaw pitched around a leadoff single, retiring the next three batters; in the bottom of the third, Woodruff, too, pitched around a single, again striking out two. And in the fourth, both halves of the inning saw all three batters retired, with both pitchers recording two more strikeouts.

Everything was working for Kershaw, whose fastball averaged 91.8 mph over the course of his start. His slider, which he threw 48% of the time, was particularly devastating: It generated 32 swings on 45 pitches, with 20 of those swings being whiffs. Of his eventual 13 strikeouts, 10 were on the slider; nine of those 10 were swinging strikeouts. Woodruff, for his part, also had his pitches working for the first four innings, generating strikeouts on his changeup, slider, and, most often, his fastball, which averaged 96.9 mph. Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks to 2020’s 16-team postseason format, the Brewers hold the dubious record of being the first playoff team in baseball history not to spend a single day of the season above the .500 mark. That unfortunate track record continued Wednesday night as the Brewers dropped the opening game of their three-game Wild Card matchup against baseball’s winningest team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. En route to a 4-2 loss, 15 Brewers faced a strike three and a sad trudge back to the dugout.

While the Brewers were never favored entering this series — or in any of its game if you fancy the ZiPS Postseason Odds — a few nasty surprises before first pitch soured their odds even further. The team had originally reshuffled the rotation to try to line up a possible Game 1 start for Corbin Burnes, who put up a 2.04 FIP, 2.4 WAR campaign, qualifying for the ERA title by a single out (he would have finished fourth). Unfortunately for the Brew Crew, an oblique issue scratched Burnes from the Wild Card roster and likely the postseason. Joining Burnes yesterday was Devin Williams, out with an unspecified shoulder injury.

Already down two of their most important pitchers, the Brewers turned to Brent Suter to start Game 1. Their other option was starting Brandon Woodruff on short rest, but coming off a 108-pitch win against the Cardinals (the most pitches he’s thrown in the majors), he was instead held back for Game 2. Suter has extensive experience as a starter, but the Brewers have generally been cautious with him since his return from a 2018 Tommy John surgery, not letting him hit the 60-pitch mark in any start. Read the rest of this entry »

The comments will tell you that the victory is worthless. The division was bad. The Diamondbacks, the team they overtook, the team they just beat to win the title — bad. These guys, I mean, how long has it been since these guys won anything, since they got anywhere? Three years, four? Twenty? There are few fans in the dark stadium seats to see this victory, dappled in weird midday light.

But the young closer, so dominant this season, retires the final batter, quick and easy, the final score set at 7-6. And then they, the visitors, pour out of the dugout, the fans who have traveled to see this happen beaming above them — running, hugging, jumping, all happiness gravitating around that spot on the field where the closer stands, even as the scowls come from the other dugout, the home team exiting, heads down and deflated.

You have to slow it down, all the spinning celebration, to see him: the pitcher, one of the first blurry figures over the dugout fence, sprinting at full speed, there a moment and then gone into the grey-blue heart of the celebration. He is the best player on this team. He is the best pitcher in baseball. Right now, though, he is not a singular figure. You can make him out, but you have to squint. He is absorbed in the dynamism of joy.

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It took a few days longer than it did last year. But they are at home, the towering curves of the stands filled with people, all of them standing. The pitch — the ball, grounded into the infield — the twirl, the spin, the out recorded just in time, even though the stakes are so low, the score is 9-1, the celebration only waiting to happen. And the camera knows to focus on him this time, the first out of the dugout again. Like a kid: a broad, open-mouthed smile as the fireworks burst, as the foundations shake and the lights flash and everything spills into everything, all motion, all joy. He puts on his hat and grins for the cameras.

Read the rest of this entry »

My favorite part of the animated series Attack on Titan, in which a race of giants appears out of nowhere and starts feasting on humanity for no apparent reason, is watching the humans try to assess and exploit the giants’ vulnerabilities more quickly than they’re being consumed. It’s analogous to any series against the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers, a club coming off a major-league best 43-17 regular season and the presumptive National League favorites to advance to the World Series. Do the Dodgers have a weak spot, a thread on which the limping Milwaukee Brewers can pull and unravel their season? Read the rest of this entry »

Two weeks ago, Fernando Tatis Jr. had what looked to be an insurmountable National League WAR-lead. Here’s what our NL position player leaderboard looked like before action got underway on Monday, September 7:

With just three weeks left to go in the regular season, Tatis had a one-win lead. Two weeks later, that lead is gone:

What Freddie Freeman has accomplished in the last two weeks has been incredible:

Freeman’s last two weeks would rank 25th for the entire season. If you are wondering if he’s ever done anything like this before, the answer is yes; he’s done it twice:

Read the rest of this entry »

Dave Raymond knows the West. The team he does play-by-play for, the Texas Rangers, not only competes in the American League West, their inter-league schedule this year comprises solely the National League equivalent. As a result, Raymond has been getting regular looks at two of the game’s most talent-rich divisions. In terms of powerhouse clubs and marquee players, the West is arguably baseball’s best.

How would Raymond rank the teams and players he’s seen this season? That was the crux of a conversation I had with the TV voice of the Rangers prior to last night’s game.

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David Laurila: Which is the best team you’ve seen this year?

Dave Raymond: “I’ve been really impressed with the Padres. They looked really good against us [in mid-August]. We may have gotten them right on the way to their peak — and that might have been us headed right to the trough — but they were really impressive. They have so much great young talent. There are guys like Jake Cronenworth who are hardly even noticed in the shadow of Fernando Tatis Jr. I mean, Cronenworth has to be the top rookie-of-the-year candidate right now, and he doesn’t even stand out on that team.

“Even Manny Machado. It looked like the energy of some of the young players is lifting him a little bit. He made some plays against the Rangers that were were pretty neat. You got a glimpse again of that young Manny Machado who won a Gold Glove and was more of the all-round player.

“But here’s my thought about the Padres: if you look at that lineup, find me the homegrown guy. He’s not there. It’s made up of all these pieces that were plucked from different organizations in trades and free agent signings. In kind of a perverse way, it’s really remarkable. I don’t think anybody sets out to build a championship team almost exclusively from other teams, but that’s kind of what they’ve done. And we just saw them, at the trade deadline, going out and aggressively bringing in even more guys from other organizations. Read the rest of this entry »

For the Toronto Blue Jays, it had already been a busy deadline day. In the dying moments of the trade deadline, they made one last move, acquiring Ross Stripling from the Dodgers:

The Los Angeles Dodgers have traded RHP Ross Stripling to the Toronto Blue Jays for two players to be named later.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 31, 2020

Stripling has had a rough go of it so far this year. He’s posted his lowest strikeout rate, highest walk rate, and lowest groundball rate, all while allowing his highest rate of home runs per fly ball. That’s about as terrible as it sounds; it’s good for a 7.23 FIP, tied with fellow Blue Jays acquisition Robbie Ray for the worst such mark among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings this year.

The Dodgers are flush with pitching depth — Tony Gonsolin’s solid start was likely to force Stripling out of the rotation, and he was more or less a luxury in relief. They’d already tried to trade him once this year, only to have the Angels back out of the deal. Toronto, on the other hand, was starting Hyun-Jin Ryu, three ham sandwiches, and a near-mint condition Juan Guzman rookie card before their recent acquisition spree. The fit is obvious.

Stripling’s sluggish start this year defies easy analysis. The most startling statistic is his sudden inability to strike out right-handed batters. He’s running only a 14.1% strikeout rate against them, as compared to 22.7% before this year. The culprit appears to be two-fold: righties are swinging less at his curveball, previously a go-to out pitch, and missing less often when they swing at his fastball.

That fastball used to be an analytical darling, not quite the pure backspin ideal but not far from it. It’s lost a bit of vertical movement and gained fade, while his curveball has done the opposite: it now falls more but with less glove-side break. It’s a frustrating development for someone who relies on those two pitches mirroring each other.

If that feels to you like a tiny change for such a calamitous fall in results, all I can say is that I agree with you. He’s simply looked a little bit off on the mound this year, right down to an inconsistent release point; he’s released two thirds of his fastballs further to the first-base side of the mound than any fastball he threw in 2019. Here are his 2019 release points:

And 2020:

The Jays are betting that this is just a blip, or that they can fix him if it isn’t. I think that’s a reasonable move, particularly if the two players to be named later they’re surrendering are long shots. Stripling joins Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker as new starters, displacing either Tanner Roark or Chase Anderson — unless he moves back into the swingman role where he excelled in Los Angeles. Either way, if he returns to anything like his prior form, he’ll be a key contributor for a team on the postseason bubble.

As for the Dodgers, they’ll be fine. They’d been looking to move Stripling for some time, likely to duck below the luxury tax line. With Mookie Betts signing an extension, they’ll probably do that tax line dance again in 2021, which means Stripling was going to be non-tendered or traded given the pipeline of not-yet-arb-eligible pitching coming up behind him. Given his rough recent form, he might not have made their postseason roster, so the decision to get something in return looks reasonable. But if the Jays fix him, or if he simply fixes himself, they might have found a complement to Ryu atop their rotation for years to come. It’s a smart risk by Toronto and a cost-saving move by Los Angeles.

It’s been a big week for the Seager family. For the first time in the careers of 26-year-old Corey Seager, who debuted in the majors with the Dodgers in 2015, and his 32-year-old brother Kyle, who debuted with the Mariners in 2011, the pair crossed paths in a regular season game. What’s more, they put themselves in the history books by becoming the first pair of brothers to homer in the same game for opposing teams since 2001, and just the ninth to do so in MLB history. Both brothers are off to strong starts this year after solid but unexceptional 2019 seasons.

Bad timing accounts for the fact that the brothers had never played a regular season game against each other until this week. Their respective teams played an interleague series in Los Angeles in April 2015, but Corey, the Dodgers’ first-round pick three years earlier, had just begun his second stint at Double-A Tulsa. When the Dodgers visited Safeco Field in August 2018, he was on the injured list, having not only undergone Tommy John surgery on May 4 of that year but also arthroscopic surgery on his left hip labrum on August 7.

MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick described the brothers’ first regular-season meeting as bittersweet, because the coronavirus pandemic prevented parents Jeff and Jody from making the trip from North Carolina to join them either at Dodger Stadium, where they played on Monday and Tuesday, or Safeco Field, where they played Wednesday and Thursday. The dueling homers occurred in the series opener on Monday, with Corey clubbing a towering 425-foot shot off Justin Dunn with two on in the third inning; dig the looks on the pair’s faces as little brother rounds the bases:

As you can see, an inning later, Kyle countered with a 405-foot solo homer off Ross Stripling, the second of three that the Dodgers righty would serve up in that frame as the Mariners overcome a 6-2 lead. Even so, the Dodgers came back to win the wild slugfest, 11-9. Read the rest of this entry »