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Archive for Guardians

Ryan Pressly Accepts Trade to Cubs, Paul Sewald Signs With Guardians

Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images and Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

As the reliever market picked up over the last week, two right-handers, both former closers, found new homes in the Central divisions. First, last Wednesday, Paul Sewald agreed to a one-year deal with the Cleveland Guardians. Then, on Sunday, Ryan Pressly waived his no-trade clause in order for the Houston Astros to send him to the Chicago Cubs for the final guaranteed year of his contract.

While both of these pitchers are likely past their peaks in terms of stuff, they’ll look to continue being contributors with their new clubs. Let’s examine the potential impact of these moves and discuss how the two pitchers will fit into the bullpens of their new teams.

Sewald Joins Elite Cleveland Bullpen

Coming off a down year relative to his previous three seasons, Sewald’s deal with the Guardians is for one year and $6 million, with a $10 million mutual option for 2026. The move solidifies the middle part of their bullpen, which already was one of the best in the majors. With Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis anchoring the group, Sewald will occupy a lesser role than he’s held over the last few years. That’s not a bad thing for him, as he can work to return to form without the pressure of having to deliver in high-leverage innings.

As velocities have increased over the years, and hitters have adapted to them, the margins for error for pitchers living in the low-90s band have grown thinner and thinner. What we saw from Sewald last season is a good example of what happens when pitchers with such a profile lose even just one tick on their fastballs.

From 2021-23, a three-year stretch during which Sewald was one of the better relievers in baseball, his four-seamer ranged from 92.2 mph to 92.5 mph. It was extremely consistent on that front. Then, in 2024, that number dropped down to 91.4 mph on average, and with that, his performance also dropped. Here is a quick summary of how Sewald’s performance on his heater regressed last season:

Paul Sewald Four-Seamer, 2021-24
Season xwOBA Whiff% Avg. Height Avg. Horizontal Release
2021 .269 33.0% 2.77 -3.83
2022 .297 29.5% 2.91 -3.71
2023 .264 28.4% 2.90 -3.70
2024 .325 24.3% 3.08 -3.60
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

As his fastball velocity fell last year, Sewald saw a sharp decrease in its effectiveness by both whiffs and overall performance. This could be related to the pitch’s location and its release angle; over the last four seasons, he’s been throwing his fastball progressively higher and higher in the zone and releasing it closer to the middle of the pitcher’s mound. Combine that with a dip in velocity and, suddenly, the pitch was just more normal than it had been in the past.

Another problem for Sewald last year was his sweeper, the pitch that was most responsible for turning him into a high-leverage reliever upon joining the Mariners in 2021. His overall numbers with it suggest it was still a weapon — he held opponents to a .196 average (.214 xBA) and a .214 wOBA (.258 xwOBA) against it — but a closer look tells a different story.

During his aforementioned three-year stretch of excellence, he was comfortable throwing his sweeper to both lefties and righties as a way to keep them off his fastball. In each of those three seasons, he threw his sweeper at least 45% of the time against righties and at least 35% of the time when facing lefties, and it was effective against both sides. That’s especially important because Sewald is mostly a two-pitch pitcher. Last year, however, lefties teed off on his sweeper. Check this out:

Paul Sewald Sweeper Splits, 2021-24
Season Overall xwOBA xwOBA vs. RHH xwOBA vs. LHH
2021 .256 .248 .275
2022 .204 .201 .209
2023 .248 .230 .272
2024 .258 .218 .369
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

So what changed? Perhaps some of it can be attributed to his diminished fastball velocity, which has cut the velocity gap between his fastball and sweeper to 8.3 mph, down from 9.7 in 2022. Except, the velo difference between the two pitches was also 8.3 mph in 2023, and that season both pitches were still effective against lefties and righties. The greater issue here seems to be the same thing that threw off his fastball: his release point, which also shifted more toward the middle of the mound when throwing his sweeper. As a result, he struggled to command his sweeper in 2024, as you can see in these two heat maps. The first one is from 2023, the second from 2024.

He started throwing the pitch more in the middle plate and less often out of the zone. Even with lesser command, he could still keep righties at bay with his sweeper because the pitch breaks away from them. Against lefties, though, he has less margin for error with his location. Sweepers that remain in the zone against lefties break nicely into their bat paths. That’s not a recipe for success.

It’s worth noting that some of Sewald’s struggles in 2024 could be injury-related, as he dealt with both neck and oblique injuries that could’ve caused his dip in velocity. These ailments might also explain his change in location and horizontal release point, as the neck and oblique muscles are especially important for a pitcher’s upper-body mechanics. Sewald turns 35 in late May, so some of his diminished stuff could be attributed to aging, but if he is healthy, we should expect him to have some sort of rebound — even if he doesn’t get back to the peak performance from his days with the Mariners.

Pressly Takes Over as Cubs Closer

For most of the offseason, the Astros have been trying to trade Pressly to shed some salary, and as they revived their efforts to re-sign Alex Bregman last week, moving Pressly seemed to become an even greater priority. Of course, Houston has not yet brought back Bregman, but either way, trading Pressly gave the Astros more financial flexibility.

Houston sent over $5.5 million to cover Pressly’s salary this season, but nothing if his contract vests for 2026. The Cubs sent back Juan Bello, a 20-year-old pitching prospect who was recently ranked no. 31 on the Cubs’ prospect list. Bello is a 35+ FV starting pitcher who, according to our prospect writers Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice, “has enough projectability and existing stuff to be forecast in a depth starter role, but he’ll need to harness his secondaries in the zone more often to consistently get more advanced hitters out and turn over a lineup.”

The 36-year-old Pressly had been a valuable member of the bullpen since the Astros traded for him in late July 2018, and during the same three-year stretch in which Sewald shined, Pressly emerged as one of the top closers in the American League. However, Houston’s signing of Josh Hader before last season relegated Pressly to a setup role and ultimately made him expendable this offseason. Astros GM Dana Brown said earlier today that the Hader signing and Pressly’s corresponding demotion in the bullpen pecking order caused a “fracture” in his and Pressly’s relationship. Now with the Cubs, Pressly is expected to return to closing games.

Similar to Sewald, Pressly is coming off a season with a notable decrease in velocity, from 94.7 mph in 2023 to 93.8 mph last year. His diminishing fastball didn’t exactly come as a surpsise, though. In 2022, batters posted a .402 xwOBA against his four-seamer, and in response, he cut its usage from 32.9% that year down to 23.1% in 2023. He leaned more on his slider, which for years has been his best pitch by run value by a wide margin. It’s odd, then, that he used his four-seamer more often than any other pitch in 2024. This pitch mix shift didn’t pay off, as opponents slugged .500 against his heater with a .371 wOBA and a .365 xwOBA, compared to their .333 SLG, .276 wOBA, and .271 xwOBA against his slider. I imagine Chicago will get him back to throwing primarily sliders again next season. For some more context, here is a three-year snapshot of Pressly’s Stuff+ and usage for his three main pitches:

Ryan Pressly Stuff+ and Usage, 2022-24
Season Fastball Stuff+ Fastball Usage Slider Stuff+ Slider Usage Curveball Stuff+ Curveball Usage
2022 122 32.9% 169 36.7% 128 26.9%
2023 126 23.1% 179 40.0% 156 26.4%
2024 99 33.3% 152 28.9% 130 24.9%

Relievers who switch teams looking for bounce backs are always fun stories to follow. Both Sewald and Pressly are in the later stages of their careers but have an opportunity to be important contributors on contending clubs. I’ll be paying attention to any potential adjustments they make come spring time.


2025 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

It’s weird doing the Twins and Guardians back to back, as ZiPS sees a lot of similarities between the two teams. It sees both clubs as having one mid-career future Hall of Famer, a really good outfielder, a bunch of slightly below-average players elsewhere in the lineup, a sneaky good rotation with one starter the system likes quite a bit more than the others, and an ultra-elite bullpen that should compete to be the best in baseball in 2025.

Overall, ZiPS sees the Guardians similarly to how Steamer does, though the shape of the projection is a bit different; ZiPS likes the hitting a good deal less than Steamer does, but is more optimistic than its cyber-rival when it comes to the pitching. Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Carlos González

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2025 BBWAA Candidate: Carlos González
Player Pos Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS H HR SB AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
Carlos González LF 24.4 23.7 24.1 1,432 234 122 .285/.343/.500 112
SOURCE: Baseball Reference

He won’t end up in Cooperstown like Larry Walker and Todd Helton, and he was never the face of the franchise the way Troy Tulowitzki was, but Carlos González is the only player to appear in three separate postseasons for the Rockies, a bridge between high points of the Helton/Tulowitzki era to those of the Nolan Arenado one. González solidified his spot in the majors with the 2009 Rockies, who overcame a slow start to claim a Wild Card berth, and was still playing regularly (albeit much less effectively) on their ’17 and ’18 Wild Card qualifiers. In between those October appearances, the sweet-swinging CarGo made three All-Star teams, took home three Gold Gloves, and won a very Coors Field-flavored batting title that propelled him to third place in the 2010 NL MVP race. Alas, as with so many other Rockies stars, he also battled numerous injuries, topping 140 games just three times in his 12 seasons.

Carlos Eduardo González was born on October 17, 1985 in Maracaibo, Venezuela, to parents Euro (an auto mechanic), and Lucila (an employee in the insurance industry). Euro had only a passing interest in baseball, but his oldest son, Euro Jr., dominated street games in their Maracaibo neighborhood. Euro Jr. didn’t start playing organized baseball until he was 12, so he never had the opportunity to capitalize on his raw talent, but he took great interest in the affinity that Carlos, his younger brother by seven years, had for the game. When Carlos was five, Euro Jr. helped find him a Little League team, his entry into Venezuela’s vast state-run youth baseball structure. Euro Jr. worked to help his younger brother buy a glove and baseball shoes.

As a child, Carlos often snuck into the kitchens and closets of relatives and hijacked their broom handles. “I would find the broom and unscrew it so I had a bat to hit stuff with,” he told the Denver Post’s Troy Renck in 2013. His toys became projectiles. “I never liked playing with them. I would toss them up in the air and hit them all the time,” as he told Renck. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Guardians – 2025 Analyst, Baseball Operations

2025 Analyst, Baseball Operations

Location: Cleveland, Ohio, United States

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians Baseball Operations department is seeking analysts who are creative, curious, and collaborative teammates who enjoy tackling unique and challenging problems. The analyst role supports multiple departments (Player Development, Pro/Amateur/International Acquisitions, and the Major League team) with analysis and the practical application of evidence and research-based tools, resources, and processes to help facilitate their work.

Core Job Functions
Analysts are expected to work in a fast-paced team environment and communicate effectively with various organizational stakeholders. The bullets below are intended to capture major realms in which work might be focused, although the Analyst’s time spent across each area may differ based on their skillset, interests, and the team’s needs.

  • Analysis:
    • Facilitate and conduct evidence-based analysis in support of each department.
    • Communicate findings to key stakeholders across the organization.
  • Development:
    • Work collaboratively with Baseball Research and Development to uncover actionable insights across Hitting, Pitching, and Defense/Base-Running.
    • Work collaboratively with Baseball Systems to build and manage software products that directly drive our internal processes.
    • Support the application and education across departments of evidence-based practices & organizational philosophies.
  • Baseball Operations:
    • Facilitate and conduct analysis to support strategic planning.
    • Provide general ad-hoc support across baseball operations.

We know that historically marginalized groups – including people of color, women, people from working class backgrounds, and people who identify as LGBTQ – are less likely to apply unless and until they meet every requirement for a job. We encourage you to reach out if you have questions about the role or your qualifications. We are happy to help you feel ready to apply!

Basic Requirements

  • Ability to craft and articulate a compelling message to others in both written and verbal form.
  • Collaborative and able to succeed in a team-oriented environment.
  • An ability to build and maintain relationships with a broad range of baseball operations employees, including but not limited to scouts, coaches, and front office members.
  • Relentlessly curious and open-minded with a track record of evidence-based and divergent thinking.
  • Working knowledge of cutting-edge, publicly available baseball research.
  • Willing to frequently work nights, weekends, and holidays—particularly during the season.
  • Expected relocation to Cleveland and travel to Arizona for Spring Training.
  • Potential travel to Minor League affiliate teams.

Preferred Experience
While we don’t expect any candidate to meet every requirement, we’re looking for either a breadth of experience or deep expertise in a particular area. We’re considering applicants with a wide variety of past experiences.

  • Demonstrated expertise in biomechanics, hitting analysis, pitching analysis, or sport science.
  • Demonstrated understanding of statistics and experience carrying out quantitative analysis.
  • Demonstrated experience with a database language such as SQL and a programming language such as R or Python.
  • Ability to communicate in Spanish is a plus but not necessary.
  • Bachelor’s degree or prior professional experience.

Organizational Requirements

  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English effectively in all communications.
  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationships with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
  • Demonstrated commitment to working with diverse populations and contributing to an inclusive working environment.
  • Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
  • Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
  • Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25 lbs.

At the Cleveland Guardians, we are all about creating an inclusive environment that brings out the best in everyone. It is a big part of who we are, how we compete, and how we make an impact in our community. We want every employee to feel like they truly belong here.

We also know that people from historically underserved groups—like women and people of color—sometimes hesitate to apply for jobs unless they check every single box on the qualifications list. We’re looking for the best person for the job, and we know that you might bring skills and experiences that aren’t exactly listed but could be a huge asset to our team. So, if this role excites you, we encourage you to apply, even if you don’t meet every single qualification.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Hanley Ramirez

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2025 BBWAA Candidate: Hanley Ramirez
Player Pos Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS H HR SB AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
Hanley Ramirez SS 38.0 35.1 36.6 1834 271 281 .289/.360/.486 124
SOURCE: Baseball Reference

For the better part of his 20s, Hanley Ramirez was one of the game’s top shortstops, at least on the offensive side — the type of hitter capable of carrying a team despite his shaky defense. During the 2006–14 span, he won NL Rookie of the Year honors, made three straight All-Star teams, joined the 30/30 club, claimed a batting title, finished second in the MVP voting, and served as a lineup centerpiece on two division winners. Unfortunately, his career unraveled after he inked a big free agent deal with the Red Sox, the same team that had originally signed him out of the Dominican Republic. Between multiple position changes and a slew of injuries — particularly to both shoulders — he slid into replacement-level oblivion, and played just 60 games after his age-33 season.

Hanley Ramirez was born on December 23, 1983 in Samaná, a town on the northeastern peninsula of the Dominican Republic, to parents Toribio (an auto mechanic) and Isabela Ramirez. Via Molly Knight’s The Best Team Money Can Buy, his mother wanted to name him Juan Jose and call him J.J., but his father objected. His paternal grandmother, a devotee of Shakespeare, suggested Hamlet, which his parents agreed to, but the clerk who wrote up the birth certificate misspelled the name, and the error stuck. “But that’s okay, because I love my name,” Ramirez told Knight.

Ramirez took to baseball quickly. Big for his age — he would grow to 6-foot-2 – he led his Little League team in home runs when he was five. By the time he was 15, he was starring at Adbentista High School and drawing the attention of scouts. According to scout Levy Ochoa, the Red Sox signed him for a $20,000 bonus on July 2, 2000, when he was 16 years old. He was as green as the grass itself. “Let me tell you, before I signed I didn’t know they paid you for playing baseball,” Ramirez told the Miami Herald in 2006. “I played because I loved the game. It was incredible when they told me they were going to sign me and they were going to give me money.” Read the rest of this entry »


Three-United: Guardians Sign Carlos Santana Again (Again), Trade Josh Naylor to Diamondbacks

Wendell Cruz and Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

I hope that you spared a thought over the holidays for the poor Naylor brothers. In a premise tailor-made for a lesser Hallmark movie, their time as teammates came to an end just four days before Christmas, when the Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick. Just 21 minutes after Jeff Passan broke the news that broke up the family, he also reported that veteran first baseman Carlos Santana had agreed to a one-year, $12-million deal to fill the hole Naylor left in the Cleveland infield. He failed to report on what, if anything, would fill the hole left in Bo Naylor’s heart.

After five years away, Santana is coming home to Cleveland for the third time — another solid premise for a Hallmark movie. In fact, he still has a home in Cleveland. Or he did, anyway. He put it on the market a few weeks ago and closed on a sale two days before signing with the Guardians. Another fun side note to Santana’s signing: He very nearly busted the We Tried Tracker. Ken Rosenthal listed seven other teams that were in on Santana: “The Seattle Mariners, Santana’s team in 2022, sought to reunite with him virtually the entire offseason, and were pushing for a resolution. Santana said both New York teams, Detroit and Arizona also were in the mix, while San Diego and Texas had asked him to wait.” If you’re keeping score at home, that’s four teams that were in the mix, two in the brand-new category of asking the player to wait, and then the extraordinarily thirsty Mariners. As you may have noticed, Rosenthal is citing Santana himself as the source for this information. If more players spoke to reporters about the interest they received, the tracker would look a lot more robust.

After running a combined wRC+ of 94 from 2020 to 2023, Santana suddenly rediscovered his form with the Twins in 2024. In his age-38 season, Santana ran a 114 wRC+ with 23 home runs, and his 11 fielding runs earned him his first Gold Glove. He racked up 3.0 WAR, more than he totaled in all but two of his 15 years in the big leagues, and good for the fifth-most WAR among first basemen last season. His average contact quality didn’t stray far from his career norms, and his vaunted batting eye remained about as strong as ever. The big difference is that 23.8% of his batted balls came in the form of line drives or fly balls to the pull side. That’s his highest rate since 2014. Focusing on pull-side power has been a major organizational focus for the Twins, so much so that before the season, Trevor Larnach decided he’d gone too far in that direction and needed to develop a more balanced approach. Whether or not the Twins were responsible for it, this approach change certainly worked for Santana, and the Guardians are hoping that he can keep both the bat and the glove going for one more year.

As for the Diamondbacks, they’re in for their first taste of life without a cornerstone at the cold corner since 2010. Naylor may not be peak Paul Goldschmidt or Christian Walker, but he’s been a top-10 first baseman over the past three years. As slugging first basemen who play bigger than the numbers suggest, Naylor and Santana have a lot in common. Both players are under six feet tall and both depend on the home run ball despite lacking jaw-dropping exit velocities. Naylor hits the ball on the ground more often and lacks Santana’s gift for staying within the strike zone, but he hits the ball harder. Despite comparable average exit velocities and hard-hit rates, Naylor’s 90th percentile exit velocity was 106 mph, significantly higher than Santana’s 103.7-mph mark. In 2024, despite running a bottom-quartile groundball rate, Naylor put up the first 30-homer season of his career, to go along with a 118 wRC+. He’s now reached that mark or higher in each of the last three seasons. His 2.3 WAR ranked 11th among first basemen in 2024, and his 7.0 WAR over the past three seasons ranked eighth.

Santana’s deal is for exactly the same amount as MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Naylor would get in his final year of arbitration, and that’s what makes this such a Cleveland move. The Guardians are taking on more risk due to Santana’s age and giving up Naylor’s higher upside, but essentially, they swapped out two similar players for identical prices and wound up with a draft pick and an interesting arm in Cecconi. Steamer projects Naylor to put up 2.0 WAR next season, compared to 1.2 for Santana. You can understand why, on the “Five and Dive” podcast, Jeffrey Paternostro called the move, “so Guardians (derogatory).” It took a whole lot of work for Cleveland to make its first base situation a bit dicier in exchange for a couple longshots.

Cecconi announced his arrival in Arizona with a bang in 2023, and I mean that very literally. He made four starts and three relief appearances, running a 4.33 ERA and 4.37 FIP. Cecconi entered the 2024 season as the D-backs’ no. 5 overall prospect and their system’s top-ranked pitcher, but he struggled mightily, running a 6.66 ERA and 5.02 FIP. He bounced between the minors and majors, and he was sent to the bullpen in late July, but his 4.49 xERA and 4.70 xFIP — while still nothing to write home about — were much less worrisome. Cecconi doesn’t rack up many whiffs or strikeouts, he doesn’t run a great groundball rate, and he doesn’t avoid hard contact. But what he does have is solid control, a fastball that can reach 98 mph, three other pitches that grade out as above average according to Pitching Bot, Stuff+, and StuffPro, and 0.155 years of service time.

The Rays were rumored to be interested in him at the trade deadline, and it’s entirely possible that the Guardians turn him into a serviceable pitcher. Although the fastball can reach 98, it averages closer to 94 and got rocked last season. Somehow, the Diamondbacks let Cecconi throw it 55% of the time anyway. Maybe the Guardians will get him in the pitching lab and help him figure out a fastball that works. Maybe they’ll make him a full-time reliever to bump his velocity back up to the top of its range. They’ll definitely have him throw his heater less often. Then again, maybe they just wanted that draft pick.


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Omar Vizquel and Francisco Rodríguez

RVR Photos-Imagn Images; Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The fourth and final multi-candidate pairing of this series is by far the heaviest, covering two candidates who have both been connected to multiple incidents of domestic violence. Read the rest of this entry »


Guardians Get Pitching Prospects Piñata for Andrés Giménez

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

DALLAS — During the middle of the Winter Meetings, the Cleveland Guardians flipped Spencer Horwitz, the principal aspect of their return from the Toronto Blue Jays in the Andrés Giménez trade, to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for three pitchers: Luis L. Ortiz, Michael Kennedy, and Josh Hartle. The deal expands the Guardians’ return for Giménez — whose projected impact on Toronto you can read about here — to four pieces once you include Nick Mitchell, a 2024 fourth rounder out of Indiana who was drafted by the Blue Jays and shipped to Cleveland in the initial deal. Read the rest of this entry »


Pack Your Passport, Andrés: Blue Jays Acquire Giménez From Guardians to Anchor Defense

David Richard-Imagn Images

The Blue Jays came into the offseason at a crossroads. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette headed for free agency after the 2025 season, the pressure is on: Make the playoffs or go the entirety of their team control years without a single playoff win. (They’re 0-6 in three Wild Card series.) It’s no surprise they were in on Juan Soto, and after coming up short there, they pivoted to the trade market, acquiring Andrés Giménez (and Nick Sandlin) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell. The Guardians then sent Horwitz on to the Pirates in exchange for Luis L. Ortiz, Michael Kennedy, and Josh Hartle, all of whom we’ll break down in a forthcoming post.

This trade improves the Blue Jays’ outlook for 2025, and it does so in a way that fits their recent team-building to a T. Two years ago, they added Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier, perhaps the two best defensive outfielders in baseball, and frequently played them together. They gave Santiago Espinal regular playing time when his defense graded out well, then phased him out in favor of new defensive wunderkind Ernie Clement when Espinal faltered defensively. They used Isiah Kiner-Falefa to patch defensive holes across the diamond until they traded him this past summer. Now they’re adding Giménez, one of the best infield defenders in all of baseball, to the mix.

Last season marked Giménez’s third straight Gold Glove and second straight Fielding Bible award. The voters (full disclosure: I am one of them) didn’t give it to him on reputation. He’s not just a shortstop playing second base; he’s a very good shortstop playing second base. He has the strongest throwing arm of any second baseman and uses it to his advantage, ranging up the middle to make outrageous plays. He has soft hands and quick reflexes. Statcast credits him with 37 runs above average over the past three years, tops in the majors. DRS thinks Statcast is being too modest – it credits him with 59 runs saved, 22 ahead of second place. Read the rest of this entry »


Bieber Decides To Stay

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

According to the Billboard Hot 100 charts, the biggest hit of Justin Bieber’s career is “Stay,” a song you either can’t get out of your head, won’t admit you can’t get out of your head, or just don’t realize you can’t get out of your head because you hear it playing everywhere — all the time — but didn’t know the title or artist. Anyway, it seems as if the not-so-subliminal messaging of one Bieber influenced the other. Shane Bieber has decided to stay (oh, ooh-woah) with the Guardians, and he’s hoping the decision proves to be just as lucrative as Justin’s song.

Bieber’s contract is essentially a one-year prove-it deal with the added security of a player option for a second year. The right-hander will earn $10 million for his age-30 season in 2025. After that, he can either exercise a $16 million option for 2026 or take a $4 million buyout and return to free agency. In other words, the player option is really only worth $12 million to Bieber, which means he surely doesn’t intend to exercise it unless things go particularly wrong. After all, he managed to net this contract halfway through his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The Guardians are prepared to pay him $14 million for half a season of work, and reportedly, that wasn’t even his highest offer. It’s safe to say he’s not picking up that option unless he suffers another injury.

So, if Bieber’s plan is to continue his rehab, rebuild his value, and cash in next offseason, it’s easy to understand why he might have taken less money to stay in Cleveland. Not only does he already have a relationship and a rehab plan with the Guardians, but this is an organization with a strong track record for helping pitchers thrive. Just look at Matthew Boyd, who came back from Tommy John this summer and turned a handful of starts with the Guardians into a two-year, $29 million deal with the Cubs. Alternatively, look at Bieber himself. The organization took a fourth-round draft pick (122nd overall) and 45-FV prospect and developed him into a Cy Young winner. It’s hardly surprising that he wants to stick with the same organization as he works his way back from a career-altering injury. The chances that he’ll ultimately receive a big, long-term deal from the Guardians are slim to none, but he’s counting on them to help him get that offer from someone else. Read the rest of this entry »