It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. And that means it’s time for one last important sabermetric ritual: the final ZiPS projected standings that will surely come back and haunt me multiple times as the season progresses.

The methodology I’m using here isn’t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion — the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond).

After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. ZiPS then automatically “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings.

The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. Read the rest of this entry »

I have a schematic in my head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. You, as someone who reads FanGraphs, probably have an idea in your head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. They’re probably the same ideas – assemble a stable of guys who can throw 98. If that doesn’t work, assemble a stable of guys who can throw 99, and add wipeout sliders until it clicks.

The Mariners had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year, and they nearly rode that unit – and their resulting excellent performance in close games – to the playoffs. You don’t coin “fun differential” if you don’t have a good bullpen. Yesterday, the team bolstered this year’s version by signing Sergio Romo to a one-year deal worth $2 million (or up to $2.25 million with incentives). In doing so, they added to a truly interesting unit that will look to back up last year’s spectacular performance while eschewing the way that their competitors look to combine relievers, at least to a degree.

In 2021, 135 relievers threw at least 20 innings while averaging 95 mph or higher on their fastballs. The Mariners will employ one of them – Diego Castillo – this year, and he’s only on the list due to his rarely-used four-seamer, as his sinker dipped below 95 last year. They have some other flamethrowers in their ‘pen – Andrés Muñoz throws 100, but missed most of 2021 with injury. Ken Giles might qualify as a flamethrower eventually, but his recovery from Tommy John so far has him topping out at 95. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Baseball Projects Assistant

Department: Baseball Projects
Reports To: Director, Baseball Projects
Status: Exempt

Primary Objective:
Responsible for organizing information and processes across player development, player acquisition, in-game strategy, and other areas of the broader Baseball Operations group, with an emphasis on creating innovative tools and streamlining communications.

Essential Functions:

• Curate and deliver data-driven player plans across all levels of the organization, both in-season and during the offseason (Best Version of Yourself (BVY) player improvement manual initiative)
• Stimulate growth of Mariners scouting infrastructure including, but not limited to, Draft Portal innovations, Draft Room moderation and amateur player pool management
• Enhance advance scouting data pipelines, improve advance reporting user interface, and educate broader Baseball Operations staff on advance processes.
• Accelerate growth of High Performance department; including, but not limited to, designing report infrastructure, collaborating on Player Plan objectives, and researching new predictive tools
• Operationalize computer vision algorithms into a breadth of creative projects
• Spearhead roster management tools & player pool exercises; including, but not limited to the Offseason Survey, back of the roster exercises and pro scouting support tools
• Streamline processes via cloud computing/storage to improve computational efficiency on processes throughout the broader Baseball Operations group
• Design cross-departmental tools, websites and reports to bring analytical information to life
• Deliver educational materials to communicate quantitative information and strategy across the organization
• Field ad hoc requests from coaches, scouts and other staff about internal processes
• Contribute to player acquisition decisions in both formal and informal contexts
• Will perform other duties as assigned

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree in statistics, computer science, mathematics or any other STEM field related to data science required. Equivalent, relevant work experience may be considered in lieu of formal education with management approval.

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Proficiency handling large datasets in R, SQL, Python, and/or comparable languages
• Demonstrated initiative as a team-oriented leader
• Working knowledge of baseball analytics, strategy and trends
• Shiny application or other web development experience
• Excellent interpersonal skills with proven ability to work in a fast-paced environment
• Self-motivated, creative and innovative with a high degree of integrity and attention to detail
• Experience building predictive models preferred
• Basic Spanish proficiency preferred
• Shares and expresses thoughts in a clear and effective manner through verbal and written communication skills. Exhibits effective listening skills and builds positive relationships with all team members, vendors, and guests. Is diplomatic, tactful and professional in all forms of communication.
• Understands and supports the team and is quick to volunteer to assist others. Others view most interactions as being positive with a willingness to achieve common goals. Effective in working with others to cooperatively solve problems. Workplace behavior is consistently respectful of others.
• Takes personal responsibility for getting things done in a way that positively and professionally represents the organization
• Demonstrates through their actions and interactions with others a commitment to Mariner Purpose, Mission and Values
• Competent in required job skills and knowledge. Completes work assignments thoroughly and completely in an accurate, and prompt way. Identifies and corrects errors. Is careful, alert and accurate, paying attention to details of the job.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Position: Baseball Projects Intern

Department: Baseball Projects
Reports To: Director, Baseball Projects
Status: Non-Exempt

Primary Objective:
Responsible for: Creating innovative tools and streamlining communications at the intersection of baseball analytics and baseball operations, delivering projects to support player development, player acquisition, in-game strategy and other projects.

Essential Functions:

• Design cross-departmental tools, websites and reports to bring analytical information to life
• Provide quantitative support to Player Plan, high performance, advance scouting and other player improvement processes
• Contribute to amateur and professional player acquisition decisions in both formal and informal context
• Field ad hoc requests from coaches, scouts and other staff about internal metrics and processes
• Complete other projects as assigned by Director, Baseball Projects
• Will perform other duties as assigned

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree in statistics, computer science, mathematics or any other STEM field related to data science preferred
• Equivalent, relevant work will be considered in lieu of formal education may be approved by management

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Proficiency handling large datasets in R, SQL, Python, and/or comparable languages required
• Demonstrated initiative as a team-oriented leader required.
• Working knowledge of baseball analytics, strategy and trend
• Shiny application or other web development experience
• Excellent interpersonal skills with proven ability to work in a fast-paced environment
• Self-motivated, creative and innovative with a high degree of integrity and attention to detail
• Experience building predictive models preferred
• Ability to communicate in Spanish preferred
• Shares and expresses thoughts in a clear and effective manner through verbal and written communication skills. Exhibits effective listening skills and builds positive relationships with all team members, vendors, and guests. Is diplomatic, tactful and professional in all forms of communication.
• Understands and supports the team and is quick to volunteer to assist others. Others view most interactions as being positive with a willingness to achieve common goals. Effective in working with others to cooperatively solve problems. Workplace behavior is consistently respectful of others.
• Takes personal responsibility for getting things done in a way that positively and professionally represents the organization
• Demonstrates through their actions and interactions with others a commitment to Mariner Purpose, Mission and Values
• Competent in required job skills and knowledge. Completes work assignments thoroughly and completely in an accurate, and prompt. Identifies and corrects errors. Is careful, alert and accurate, paying attention to details of the job.
• Makes decisions and takes actions that contribute to exceptional experiences for guests

Physical Activities and Working Conditions:

• Seattle-based and works out of T-Mobile Park. Remote opportunities may be available on a case-by-case basis.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Seattle Mariners.

The Reds and Mariners both finished just outside their respective leagues’ playoff pictures last season, but they’re heading in different directions for 2022. Less than 24 hours after trading Sonny Gray to Minnesota, Cincinnati dealt left fielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez to Seattle in exchange for a four-player package headlined by 23-year-old lefty Brandon Williamson, who recently landed at no. 61 on our Top 100 Prospects list.

Also heading from the Emerald City to the Queen City are right-hander Justin Dunn, outfielder Jake Fraley, and a player to be named later. Via The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal:

The SEA-CIN deal also includes a player to be named going back to the Reds, source tells @TheAthletic. Reds high on that player, believe it will enhance package

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 14, 2022

This is an aggressive move for the Mariners, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2001 and who last year won 90 games, two fewer than the Red Sox and Yankees, the AL’s Wild Card teams. The gave up a substantial amount of young pitching in an effort to shore up an offense that scored just 4.30 runs per game, the AL’s fifth-lowest total, and managed just a 93 wRC+, tied for the fourth-lowest mark. The Reds… well, they saved some money and got some impressive, controllable pitching, but they also gave up their most impactful hitter over the past two seasons — and a prominent voice in the clubhouse — in order to dump the $35 million owed to Suárez. Read the rest of this entry »

Per the JAWS leaderboard, Adrián Beltré (4) and Scott Rolen (10) rank highest among third basemen not in the Hall of Fame. Beltré will almost certainly get the nod once he becomes eligible, while the currently-on-the ballot Rolen has been making strong headway toward Cooperstown. If and when both players are enshrined, which non-Hall of Fame third baseman will rank highest in JAWS?

The answer is Graig Nettles, who ranks 12th (11th if you don’t include Edgar Martinez). In terms of WAR, Nettles (65.7) ranks right in front of Martinez (65.5), and close behind Rolen (69.9). Beltré (84.1) is comfortably ahead of all three.

Should Nettles be in the Hall of Fame? His accolades and accomplishments include 390 home runs, six All-Star berths, two Gold Gloves — he’d have won more were it not for Brooks Robinson — and a pair of World Series rings. All told, he played in five Fall Classics. Back when Jay Jaffe was writing for Sports Illustrated, my esteemed colleague tabbed Nettles as the most-overlooked player at his position when it comes to Hall of Fame worthiness.

Meanwhile, was Beltré better than Robinson? A clear majority of the people who voted in a Twitter poll I ran yesterday feel that he was. Of the 337 people who weighed in, 61.7% opted for Beltré, while only 38.3% sided with the legendary Baltimore Orioles Hall of Famer. Read the rest of this entry »

Michael Fransoso is a great fit for a Mariners player-development machine that thrives with a process-based philosophy. Seattle boasts one of the top farm systems in the game, and Fransoso, a 31-year-old University of Maine graduate who played multiple professional seasons, is an up-and-coming hitting instructor who is fully-invested in that approach. His tutelage has thus far been at the lower rungs of the minors: He spent last season working with many of the organization’s best position-player prospects in the Arizona Complex League, and this year, he’ll be the hitting coach at low-A Modesto.

Earlier this month, Fransoso discussed the Mariners’ developmental philosophy and the some of the young hitters he’s been helping to hone.

———

David Laurila: You joined the organization in November 2019. What were the conversations like during, and immediately following, the hiring process?

Michael Fransoso: “Very process-based. Andy McKay was our farm director, and everything kind of flows through him. He’s very process-based, and also big into the mental game. That was huge. I felt like all of my conversations with the hitting department aligned. Everybody was on the same page in terms of the Mariners’ process — how we want to develop hitters — and they were able to deliver that message to me in a clear way. Really, it’s about dominating the zone.”

Laurila: I think it’s safe to say that all teams want their hitters to dominate the zone. What is the actual process?

Fransoso: “When you hear ‘dominate the strike zone,’ you might think it means ‘swing at strikes and take balls,’ but it’s not that simple. We want it to be simple, but hitting isn’t simple. Dominating the zone is more of a mindset. It’s also an individual approach to manage that hitter-pitcher matchup. When you break it down, the only thing a hitter controls is whether we swing at that pitch. We don’t have control over what the pitcher throws, how hard he’s throwing, or the break. We don’t even control whether it’s a ball or strike, because that’s up to the umpire. Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago, I ran a Twitter poll asking which of Bobby Abreu and Ichiro Suzuki had the better MLB career. The latter won in a landslide. Of the 1,183 votes cast, 86.8% went to Ichiro, while Abreu garnered just 13.2%.

The poll results don’t reflect their respective numbers:

Ichiro: .311/.355/.402, .328 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 57.8 WAR.
Abreu: .291/.395/.475, .378 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 59.8 WAR.

If you favor counting stats, here are a few of those:

Ichiro: 3.089 hits, 362 2Bs, 96 3Bs, 117 HRs, 3,994 total bases, 509 SB.
Abreu: 2,470 hits, 574 2Bs, 59 3Bs, 288 HRs, 4.026 total bases, 400 SB.

Unless you place an especially-high value on hit totals and batting averages, Abreu clearly has a career-wise statistical edge on the undoubtedly Hall-of-Fame-worthy Ichiro. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

More so than Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, or Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez is the poster child for the era of performance-enhancing drugs within baseball. Considered “an almost perfect prospect” given his combination of power, speed, defense, and work ethic, the 6-foot-3 shortstop was chosen by the Mariners with the first pick of the 1993 draft, and reached the majors before his 19th birthday. In short order, he went on to produce unprecedented power for the position via six straight seasons of at least 40 homers, two with at least 50, and three league leads. Along the way, he signed a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers in January 2001, at that point the largest guaranteed contract in professional sports history.

In a major league career that spanned from 1994 to 2016, Rodriguez made 14 All-Star teams, won three MVP awards and two Gold Gloves, and became just the fifth player to reach the twin plateaus of 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, after Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, and Rafael Palmeiro. Along the way, he helped his teams to 12 postseason appearances, but only one championship. Though he sparkled at times in the postseason, he also went into some notorious slumps that only furthered the drama that surrounded him.

Always with the drama! Rodriguez’s combination of youthful charisma, success, and money magnified his every move, and his insecurities and inability to read the room guaranteed further tumult the more intense things got. Because of his proximity to Derek Jeter, first as a friendly rival within a trinity of great young shortstops that also included Nomar Garciaparra, and then as a teammate once the Yankees became the only club that could afford his contract, Rodriguez became an easy target for tabloid-style sensationalism long before he dated Madonna and Jennifer Lopez. His inability to get out of his own way only intensified once he got to New York, even before his PED-related misdeeds put him in the crosshairs. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2018 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Content warning: This piece contains details about alleged domestic violence and sexual harassment. The content may be difficult to read and emotionally upsetting.

In the eyes of many, Omar Vizquel was the successor to Ozzie Smith when it came to dazzling defense. Thanks to the increased prevalence of highlight footage on the internet and on cable shows such as ESPN’s SportsCenter and Baseball Tonight, the diminutive Venezuelan shortstop’s barehanded grabs, diving stops, and daily acrobatics were seen by far more viewers than Smith’s ever were. Vizquel made up for having a less-than-prototypically-strong arm with incredibly soft hands and a knack for advantageous positioning. Such was the perception of his prowess at the position that he took home 11 Gold Gloves, more than any shortstop this side of Smith, who won 13.

Vizquel’s offense was at least superficially akin to Smith’s: He was a singles-slapping switch-hitter in lineups full of bigger bats and, at his best, a capable table-setter who got on base often enough to score 80, 90, or even 100 runs in some seasons. His ability to move the runner over with a sacrifice bunt or a productive out delighted purists, and he could steal a base, too. While he lacked power, he dealt in volume, piling up more hits (2,877) than all but four players who spent the majority of their careers at shortstop and are now in the Hall of Fame: Derek Jeter (3,465), Honus Wagner (3,420), Cal Ripken Jr. (3,184), and Robin Yount (3,142). Vizquel is second only to Jeter using the strict as-shortstop splits, which we don’t have for Wagner (though we do know the Flying Dutchman spent 31% of his defensive innings at other positions). During his 11-year run in Cleveland (1994–2004), Vizquel helped his team to six playoff appearances and two pennants. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

This is one case where just taking a glance at the depth chart graphic could lend the wrong impression. In the below graphic, two of the four most valuable ZiPS-projected hitters have their contributions split among multiple positions, with lesser players bringing down their overall numbers, and a third isn’t even on the depth chart. What’s more, the Mariners have reasonably good depth, especially offensively, and while the ceiling on most of the lineup isn’t exceptionally high, I do think they have a pretty high floor. I also don’t believe that Evan White has anywhere near enough remaining rope to get 300 plate appearances in 2022 if he matches his projection below. Read the rest of this entry »