Archive for Nationals

Will Harris Can’t Beat Them, Joins Them

The Washington Nationals didn’t set out to win the World Series in spite of their bullpen. Before the 2019 season, they made two high-upside moves by signing Trevor Rosenthal and trading for Kyle Barraclough. They also added lefty help in Tony Sipp. During the season, they took fliers on Fernando Rodney, Javy Guerra, Brad Boxberger, and Jonny Venters, while also inexplicably trading Austin Adams. And they added three relievers on deadline day, including postseason stalwart Daniel Hudson.

Those moves may not have worked out for the most part, but they showed the team’s intent to build a solid bullpen. And with Hudson leaving in free agency and the other lottery tickets long gone, they were back at square one. Enter Will Harris, who yesterday signed a three-year, $24 million contract with the team that spectacularly beat him in Game 7 of the World Series.

That’s a compelling narrative, so let’s at least give it a little space. Harris will be sharing a locker room with Howie Kendrick, whose foul-pole-scraping home run flipped a deficit to a lead the team would never relinquish. The first time he walks into the locker room in spring training after batters have reported, he’ll probably get a mock cheer from Kendrick and the rest of the Nats hitters. He’ll almost certainly get a big ovation the first time he appears in DC, and that will be weird for him for a second.
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Top 21 Prospects: Washington Nationals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the world champion Washington Nationals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Nationals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Carter Kieboom 22.3 MLB SS 2020 60
2 Luis Garcia 19.6 AA 2B 2021 50
3 Jackson Rutledge 20.7 A RHP 2022 45
4 Wil Crowe 25.3 AAA RHP 2020 45
5 Mason Denaburg 20.4 R RHP 2023 45
6 Andry Lara 17.0 R RHP 2025 40+
7 Eddy Yean 18.5 A- RHP 2022 40+
8 Matt Cronin 22.2 A LHP 2022 40+
9 Tim Cate 22.2 A+ LHP 2021 40
10 Seth Romero 23.7 A LHP 2021 40
11 Drew Mendoza 22.2 A 1B 2023 40
12 Yasel Antuna 20.1 A 3B 2021 40
13 Jeremy De La Rosa 17.9 R RF 2024 40
14 Israel Pineda 19.7 A C 2022 40
15 Joan Adon 21.4 A RHP 2022 40
16 Roismar Quintana 16.9 R RF 2023 35+
17 Jackson Cluff 23.0 A SS 2022 35+
18 Raudy Read 26.1 MLB C 2020 35+
19 James Bourque 26.4 MLB RHP 2020 35+
20 Tyler Dyson 22.0 A- RHP 2023 35+
21 Reid Schaller 22.7 A RHP 2021 35+
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60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Walton HS (GA) (WSN)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 55/60 45/55 40/40 40/45 60/60

If you’ve enjoyed watching Keston Hiura hit for the last year or so, you’ll enjoy Kieboom, whose hands work similarly in the box. The efficient loop they create as they accelerate through the hitting zone enables Kieboom to hook and lift stuff on the inner half, including breaking balls, and he’s especially adept at driving stuff away from him out to right. This is a special hitting talent who has performed up through Triple-A as a college-aged shortstop, and Anthony Rendon‘s departure opens the door for at-bats right away.

We don’t really like Kieboom at shortstop. He’s a little heavy-footed and his hands are below average. He’s arguably better-suited for second or third base, but one could argue he’s at least as good as Trea Turner is there right now (Kieboom has worse range but can make more throws), so the short- and long-term fit here may be different. Regardless of the defensive home, Kieboom projects as a middle of the order bat with All-Star talent.

50 FV Prospects

2. Luis Garcia, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 50/55 30/45 40/40 45/50 55/55

Garcia didn’t have a great statistical 2019, but he was a teenager at Double-A so we’re not weighing that heavily. We care most about Garcia’s ability to hit, and that remains strong. His swing and feel for contact are both very similar to Juan Soto‘s, though of course Garcia lacks that kind of raw thump or plate discipline. Garcia’s a proactive swinger but so far his advanced feel for the barrel has allowed it to work. Most of his extra-base damage is going to come via doubles slashed down the left field line and to the opposite field gap, but there’s a 20 home run ceiling here if he learns to attack the right pitches.

A little thicker and slower than most shortstops, Garcia’s hands and actions are good and he’s probably a better fit at second base. We have him projected as an average everyday player there.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (WSN)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 8″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/65 50/55 40/50 35/45 95-98 / 101

After an up-and-down freshman year at Arkansas, Rutledge transferred to Houston-area junior college powerhouse San Jacinto and immediately looked like a first-round pick, even before the season started. He had trouble getting on the mound in Fayetteville in part due to his command, which still isn’t great, but he has more than enough feel to throw his high-octane stuff over the plate and most lower level hitters can’t handle it. Rutledge is a physical monster at 6-foot-8 and 260 pounds, and has an arm swing familiar to those who saw Lucas Giolito‘s arm action adjustment, typically en vogue with the weighted ball community.

Rutledge has some of the best stuff on Earth, working 96–100 in most outings and mixing in a 65- or 70-grade slider with a curveball a notch below that. His changeup flashes average but is clearly a fourth option, and his command flashes average at times, but should always be somewhat of an issue given his size. Refining the command to be good enough to let his stuff work over long outings is the main development issue here, but it’s worth noting that some clubs were scared off of Rutledge’s medical in the draft, which most notably included surgery on both hips. This could go down the “no one can throw that hard, be that big, and be a healthy 200-inning starter” road, and see Rutledge become a potential closer, or the “how did anyone pass on this offensive lineman with Syndergaard’s stuff” path, and get immediate whoopsies from the industry, much like Nate Pearson has so far. Regardless, he’ll be fun to watch.

4. Wil Crowe, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from South Carolina (WSN)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/50 50/55 55/55 45/50 91-94 / 96

There are some long-term health questions with Crowe — his market was diluted by knee and elbow concerns coming out of high school, he’s a bigger-bodied guy, and he blew out about halfway through his sophomore year at South Carolina — but he’s ready for a big league rotation right now. Crowe has above-average stuff, his fastball and pair of breaking balls are all capable of missing bats, and we’ve seen good changeups from him, too. He has imprecise control of everything, and instead just tries to bully hitters with a pretty even mix of the repertoire in competitive locations. He resembles Tanner Roark in many ways and projects to be a starter of similar quality, probably beginning at some point next year.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Merritt Island HS (FL) (WSN)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 60/60 50/55 40/50 92-95 / 98

Denaburg had a loud spring as a high school senior, when he went pitch-for-pitch with Carter Stewart in two showdowns and both became first-round picks. Each has had his troubles since then. Denaburg’s pro debut didn’t happen after signing last summer, as the biceps tendonitis that dinged his draft stock flared up again after signing. In 2019, it looked like he would get to Low-A at some point, but his velocity ticked down and the Nationals held him back in extended ball. Once he built back up (92-94, touching 95 mph) he was set to go to short-season and then Low-A to finish the year. But then he felt something in his shoulder, which led to him being shut down again and never leaving Florida.

At his best, Denaburg would sit 93-95, hit 98 mph, mix in a consistently 60- or 65-grade curveball and an emerging 55-grade changeup with the size and athleticism scouts can project near the front of a rotation. After two years of inconsistent health, expectations are lower, but between Denaburg, Rutledge, and Romero, there is some pretty goofy stuff bouncing around this system; it’ll be exciting if one of them puts it together fully in 2020.

40+ FV Prospects

6. Andry Lara, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Venezuela (WSN)
Age 17.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+

Lara is a bigger, mature-framed pitcher with present velocity. He already sits 92-94, so it’s less of a problem that he lacks traditional physical projection. However, it’s also feasible that Lara becomes more fluid and athletic as he matures, so maybe he’ll back into more velocity that way. Many other traits typical of top high school pitchers — arm action, glove side fastball/slider command, and the slider quality — are also promising here, just without obvious physical projection.

7. Eddy Yean, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 45/55 40/50 91-94 / 96

Yean has stuff typical of most late first or early second round high school arms. He has a fairly projectable frame, his heater reaches the mid-90s, there’s precocious changeup and slider feel, and Yean goes right at hitters. He was targeted by sellers at the deadline and has mid-rotation upside.

8. Matt Cronin, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2019 from Arkansas (WSN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 197 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 55/60 40/45 40/45 93-95 / 96

Cronin has Greg Holland’s build (scaled up a little bit) and arm slot, creating big time carry on his heater, which touches 97. He also has a power, overhand curveball that’s already consistently plus. While at Arkansas, one of Cronin’s teammates would smack him across the face before he entered games. We don’t know if that tradition has continued in pro ball, but as long as he throws strikes and the stuff stays the same, Cronin is a potential high-leverage reliever.

40 FV Prospects

9. Tim Cate, LHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Connecticut (WSN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 60/60 40/45 45/50 87-91 / 93

Cate has long been compared to Tim Collins as a smallish power lefty with mid-90s heat in short stints and a knockout breaking ball. Cate was first seen by most scouts in relief for two summers for College Team USA but was always a starter for UConn. His 92-95 mph heater in relief was more 88-92 mph in the rotation and he had forearm tightness early in his draft spring, along with a Tommy John surgery in high school. We mention that amateur background because it’s still the conversation around Cate. The Nats hope he’s still a league-average starter and think some added weight may increase his stamina. But plenty of evaluators just want to see Cate in the role where he’s stood out most (and arguably the role where his arm injuries suggest he belongs), working an inning or two at a time in relief.

10. Seth Romero, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Houston (WSN)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 45/55 40/50 91-93 / 96

The beginning of any story with Romero starts with his background, which includes a litany of off-field issues that pushed a top-10 overall talent to the end of the first round and, most recently, Tommy John surgery. Nationals officials are cautiously optimistic in their accounts of how Romero has been lately, saying his on- and off-field behavior is improving and his physical condition (not always the best) is in a good spot. He returned from surgery to pitch in the instructional league and sat 93-95 mph, throwing strikes. His changeup had moved ahead of his slider just before he blew out and sliders often are the last pitch to come back after surgery, so a fastball-changeup combo will be the main weapons for Romero as he returns on a pitch and innings count.

Due to the innings limitation as he builds back up, there’s a shot that Romero could be fast-tracked in the bullpen if he stays healthy, out of trouble, and in line with his considerable talent. There are some similarities between Romero and Red Sox left-hander Jay Groome: While they’ve both been dogged by makeup issues and TJ surgery, everything seems to be trending the right direction now. Both are 40 FVs at the moment but could be 50s by the end of the year if everything comes together.

11. Drew Mendoza, 1B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2019 from Florida State (WSN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 40/55 45/40 40/50 55/55

Mendoza had some No. 1 overall pick buzz early in his high school senior spring, but ultimately faded a bit down the stretch and his big price tag (plus Scott Boras) led to him enrolling at Florida State, where those concerns played out for three years. Mendoza has massive raw power and a borderline passive late-count approach, which leads to a healthy heaping of true three outcomes. Along with the patient approach, scouts either complain or simply point out Mendoza’s on-field demeanor, which runs from “low blood pressure” to “disinterested.” He looked less like a third baseman over time at Florida State, and the Nationals plan to play Mendoza at first base most of the time going forward. There’s still some projection left: Mendoza could have 70 raw power with a high on-base percentage when he gets to the big leagues, but the margin for error is low and could lead to a platoon role.

12. Yasel Antuna, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 45/55 20/50 55/50 40/50 55/55

Tommy John and some nagging lower body issues limited Antuna to three GCL games and instructs in the DR. He looked a little thicker during instructs, and it’s more likely that he ends up at third base now, but the rest of the profile is the same: He’s still a switch-hitting middle infielder with a pretty, low-ball swing and a frame that might yield considerable raw power. He’s age-appropriate for the Penn League (and starting him in Extended seems smart) but he might skip ahead to full-season ball next spring.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/60 20/55 40/30 35/45 50/50

De La Rosa popped up quickly after signing for $300,000 last summer (normally below our radar on signing day) and standing out in stateside instructs. He had a solid pro debut this summer in the GCL as a 17-year-old, and the tools are still present as well: solid average speed, an improved arm that shows average, a chance to play in center field, and average raw power that could improve in the coming years. For those wondering who the next elite international position player prospect will be in this system, he and Roimar Quintana are the new young bats to watch.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (WSN)
Age 19.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 20/40 30/20 40/45 55/55

A physical young catcher with some pull power, Pineda has been pushed through the minors quickly so far. He went straight to the GCL at age 17, then to a Penn League packed with 21-year-olds at age 18, then to full-season ball in 2019, all for someone who won’t turn 20 until April. He took an offensive dip at least in part because he was playing through a broken finger all year. We still think he’s a bat-first backup, but he has a puncher’s chance to be a regular.

15. Joan Adon, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 45/50 50/55 35/40 92-96 / 98

Washington moved Adon into the rotation after he had spent his first two pro seasons in the bullpen, and his velocity dipped a bit during the second half of the year. He has a graceful delivery that he struggles to repeat, which impacts his breaking ball quality and command enough for us to project him in relief. In the bullpen he might sit 94-plus with serious movement, which, even with relatively tepid offspeed projection, puts him in a valuable relief role.

35+ FV Prospects

16. Roismar Quintana, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Venezuela (WSN)
Age 16.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 20/50 55/50 45/55 50/50

Quintana signed for $820,000 in the Nats’ 2019 July 2nd class as one of three high-dollar signings, behind Lara and left-hander Pablo Aldonis. Quintana made a solid first impression domestically in the instructional league. He’s an average runner with an average arm and above average raw power. He has a well-developed 6-foot, 205 pound frame that reminds some of Marcell Ozuna or a number of Cuban outfielders, but Washington thinks Quintana can play center field for awhile, maybe even long enough to be an everyday player there in the big leagues. With no organized games to go off of, we’re projecting a lot on the bat, but his swing path is direct, there’s raw strength, and he’s already showing opposite field BP power.

17. Jackson Cluff, SS
Drafted: 6th Round, 2019 from BYU (WSN)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55

Many BYU prospects have an uphill battle to climb against draft models because their Mormon mission takes them away from baseball for a year, and makes them much older than their peers when they’re finally draft eligible. We weren’t really on Cluff pre-draft, but he performed during the summer and his eclectic collection of tools, feel to hit, lefty stick, and the likelihood that he stays on the dirt have him looking like a high-floor bench infielder already, and he’s trending up.

18. Raudy Read, C
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 26.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 45/50 20/20 40/45 45/45

The brawny Read has a long track record of hitting — he’s hit .270 with some pop over the course of several upper-minors seasons — mired somewhat by a 2018 PED suspension. He struggles with righty breaking balls away from him but mashes lefties. His receiving has improved enough that he can catch pitchers who don’t live in the dirt, which makes him a potential third catcher/26th man type who clubs lefties off the bench and starts at first base once in a while.

19. James Bourque, RHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2014 from Michigan (WSN)
Age 26.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
65/65 55/55 40/40 94-97 / 99

Bourque and his beat-walking cop mustache ascended through the minor league ranks after he moved to the bullpen and shelved his changeup back in 2018. The Nationals forced him to work only with his fastball during 2018 instructs, and liked enough of what they saw that they put him on the 40-man. He’s a stiff, upright, arm strength relief prospect.

20. Tyler Dyson, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2019 from Florida (WSN)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Dyson’s career has been a rollercoaster: lower-profile Gator recruit, breakout freshman, pegged as a potential 1-1 before his sophomore year, then two years and a Cape summer of inconsistent stuff, command, and performance without a major injury. His velo trended back up into the mid-90’s before the draft and the Nationals popped him in the fifth round; he then had a solid pro debut. He’s a sleeper in that he’s showed Top 100 ability — which makes some who see him think there’s a breakout coming — but it’s appeared inconsistently enough that we think he’ll likely wind up in middle relief.

21. Reid Schaller, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Vanderbilt (WSN)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 40/45 45/50 91-94 / 96

Schaller would have been a draft-eligible sophomore at Vanderbilt, but he lost his true freshman season to Tommy John, so he was a rare draft-eligible redshirt freshman instead. Pitching out of the bullpen in college, Schaller was 94-97. He’s been more 91-94 as a starter in pro ball, but we have him projected as a two-pitch reliever and think the heater will have an extra gear in single-inning outings.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Younger Potential Helium Types
Pablo Aldonis, LHP
Viandel Pena, 2B
Junior Martina, SS
Yoander Rivero, SS
Daniel Marte, CF
Todd Peterson, RHP
Justin Connell, RF
Leandro Miliani, RF
Mirton Blanco, RHP

We’ll try to plow through these pretty quickly as this system has more of this tier of prospect than most clubs. Aldonis turns 18 in March. He’s a medium-framed, 6-foot-1, 55 athlete with a smooth delivery and advanced feel for three pitches. He’s a long-term physical projection sleeper. Pena is a stocky switch-hitter with bat-to-ball skills and he hit .360 in the GCL last year. He’s a 50 runner and infield defender who’s about 5-foot-7. It’s softer contact right now, but the barrel feel is there. Martina is a native of Curaçao and a 19th rounder out of Western Oklahoma St who crushed the GCL after the draft. He takes big hacks and could be a power-over-hit middle infield utility type. Rivero is an 18-year-old, glove-first shortstop. Peterson pitched in relief at LSU and would sit 92-94 with a 55 cutter/slider and curveball at times. Washington tried him in a rotation last summer. Connell and Miliani are bat-to-ball 1B/LF sorts; they have promising contact skills but probably need to end up with premium hit tools to profile. Blanco is a 17-year-old who has been up to 98 but he’s very wild.

Major League Ready Depth
Kyle Finnegan, RHP
Ben Braymer, LHP
Yadiel Hernandez, 1B/OF
Jordan Mills, LHP
Steven Fuentes, RHP
Andrew Lee, RHP
Nick Raquet, LHP
Tres Barrera, C
Nick Banks, OF
Jacob Condra-Bogan, RHP

Finnegan was a high-priority minor league free agent whose stuff was up late in the year, and has been strong in the Dominican Winter League. He’s in the mid-90s with an average slider and split. Braymer is also on the 40-man and looks like a lefty pitchability swingman with a 55 breaking ball. Hernandez is a weird one. He signed out of Mexico at age 29 and is now 32, but he rakes (it’s hit over power due to lack of launch, but the contact is very hard) and because of when he signed, he acts as upper-level depth without occupying a 40-man spot this year, so he has sneaky trade value. Jordan Mills sits upper-80s with sink, his changeup is plus, and his slider above average. Fuentes has reached Double-A and has a tailing low-90s fastball and above average changeup. Lee and Raquet are overhand four-seam, curveball relief types. Barrera is on the 40-man right now and is a well-rounded third catcher. Banks has several above average tools (speed underway, raw power, arm strength) but the bat is below. Condra-Bogan is significant because he’s the only player on this whole list who arrived by trade (he came back from Kansas City in the Brian Goodwin deal), as everyone else was drafted or signed by Washington. JCB touches 100; he’s still working on a breaking ball.

A Complete Mess of Other Guys
Jake Irvin, RHP
Fausto Segura, RHP
Jakson Reetz, C
Orlando Ribalta, RHP
J.T. Arruda, SS
Jhonatan German, LHP
Gage Canning, CF
Alex Troop, LHP
Felix Taveras, RHP

Several of these guys signed late out of Latin America, around age 21. Segura (23, NYPL) has a chuck-it-past-you fastball up to 98, German (24, Double-A) has a mid-90s sinker, and Taveras (24, GCL) has been hurt for most of the past three years but was up to 97 with 2500 rpm on the heater. Irvin was up last spring, down last summer, then up again during instructs, where he pitched in relief. He’s 6-foot-6 and sits 93-96 when things are right with an average curveball. Reetz is another athletic, late-bloomer type who makes consistent hard contact; he’s probably a depth catcher. Ribalta is a big-bodied fastball/curveball relief prospect who was up to at least 96 at Miami Dade College the summer after the draft. Arruda was a sophomore-eligible 11th rounder. He’s a lefty-bat infielder with good feel to hit. Troop is a lanky, over-the-top lefty whose fastball has carry.

System Overview

This system is not very good for very good reasons. Prospects have either been traded away (Elvis Alvarado, Jesus Luzardo, Yohanse Morel, Kelvin Gutierrez, Daniel Johnson, Taylor Hearn, Sheldon Neuse, Dane Dunning) or they’ve graduated (Juan Soto, Victor Robles), and several draft picks have been lost as compensation for free agents because the Nats have been busy winning. And so the list above includes just one player who wasn’t originally signed or drafted by Washington; they haven’t been in prospect acquisition mode for a long time.

Once Carter Kieboom graduates off the list, would you rather have this entire system or the Vanderbilt Commodores? It’s probably pretty close.


The Nationals Couldn’t Let Stephen Strasburg Leave

Stephen Strasburg entered the Nationals organization in 2009 as a 21-year-old super-prospect, an essentially finished product ready to pitch in the majors. A decade later, he has more than lived up to the hype, averaging four wins per season even after missing nearly all of the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery. The decade culminated with Strasburg’s best season, 36.1 brilliant postseason innings, and a World Series championship. After opting out of the final four seasons and $100 million owed to him under his previous contract, the Nationals made Strasburg’s return their top priority, with the team and player agreed to a record $245 million deal covering the next seven seasons as first reported by Jon Heyman. Ken Rosenthal reports that Strasburg also receives a no-trade clause with multiple award incentives with annual salaries of $35 million with $80 million in deferrals spread out equally over the contract to be paid with interest. Joel Sherman has indicated the deferrals will be paid in the first three years after the contract’s end.

In his post earlier this afternoon, Dan Szymborksi posted Strasburg’s ZiPS projections for the duration of the deal. Those projections gave Strasburg an impressive 27.5 WAR for his age-31 through age-37 seasons. According to Szymborksi’s projection, the $245 million figure is essentially a fair one. But the deal is still surprising for its magnitude. When FanGraphs crowdsourced free agent contracts for the Top 50 Free Agents post, the median contract estimate for Strasburg came out to $140 million with an average of about $154 million; Kiley McDaniel’s prediction came in at $150 million. With Strasburg and Gerrit Cole the only bonafide aces available, and multiple teams willing to dole out large sums of money for those aces, the market for Strasburg was evidently robust. As Scott Boras looks set to pit the Yankees and Angels against each other for Cole, Strasburg sat waiting as a potential backup option. Rather than run the risk of losing Strasburg to the Cole runner-up, Washington opted to jump the market and paid to avoid a potential bidding war.

There are certainly risks involved with signing a pitcher into his mid-to-late 30s. Strasburg has a Tommy John surgery in his past. From 2015 through 2018, he averaged under 150 innings, but innings totals can be a double-edged sword when looking at longevity. Strasburg’s low innings totals in the past can be held against him, just as the 245.1 innings he threw in 2019 can be held against him due to the extra mileage it put on his arm. Ultimately, the Nationals are paying Strasburg for what they expect him to do in the future. As noted above, Strasburg’s projections are good. To get a slightly better sense of how pitchers like Strasburg have performed, I looked for players within two wins of Strasburg’s 18 WAR from age 27 through 30 years old. I took out any player with more than 200 innings than Strasburg’s 662 during that time and looked at players within two wins of Strasburg’s 5.7 WAR total in 2019. I was left with eight players:

Stephen Strasburg Comps: Age-27 Through Age-30
Name IP ERA FIP WAR
Bert Blyleven 857 3.36 3.18 16.3
Shane Reynolds 842.2 3.7 3.29 17.9
Kevin Brown 841 3.76 3.5 18.7
Randy Johnson 839 3.54 3.44 18.3
Tom Glavine 838.2 3.26 3.64 16.5
Andy Pettitte 731.2 4.15 3.77 16.1
Roy Halladay 720 3.39 3.51 16.7
Curt Schilling 636 3.34 3.13 16.5
AVERAGE 788 3.56 3.43 17.1
Stephen Strasburg 662 3.25 3.11 18.0

Strasburg comes up a bit short in his innings total, though his 50.1 postseason innings aren’t included above. It’s also worth mentioning that the two players closest to Strasburg in terms of innings were Curt Schilling and Roy Halladay. Four of the eight players above are already Hall of Famers. Kevin Brown and Schilling both have good cases for induction as well. Here’s how those eight players performed over their next three seasons:

Stephen Strasburg Comps From Age-31 Through Age-33
Name IP ERA FIP WAR
Kevin Brown 727.1 2.33 2.67 22.8
Roy Halladay 735.2 2.67 3.03 19.7
Randy Johnson 488.2 2.54 2.57 18.1
Curt Schilling 659.1 3.51 3.47 16.1
Andy Pettitte 513.2 3.29 3.26 12.8
Tom Glavine 703.1 3.19 3.85 12.6
Shane Reynolds 545.1 4.34 3.97 10
Bert Blyleven 421.2 3.35 3.21 9.4
AVERAGE 599 3.15 3.25 15.2

There isn’t a bust in the group, and the players above actually got better in their early 30s, averaging five wins per season. The worst comp during those years is Bert Blyleven, who still managed to pitch close to 400 innings and average more than three wins per season. It’s possible that showing Strasburg’s near-term future as a largely positive one doesn’t say much that we don’t already know. What about the out years of the contract, when Strasburg’s deal might become a liability? Here’s how those same eight pitchers fared from age-34 through age-37, in what will be the last four years of Strasburg’s contract:

Stephen Strasburg Comps From Age-34 Through Age-37
Name IP ERA FIP WAR
Randy Johnson 1014.1 2.72 2.6 37.0
Curt Schilling 910.2 3.11 2.8 28.7
Kevin Brown 661.1 2.97 3.3 17.7
Bert Blyleven 1039.2 4.05 4.0 15.3
Andy Pettitte 828.1 4.24 4.0 14.2
Roy Halladay 452 3.70 3.3 10.6
Tom Glavine 868.1 3.57 4.4 10.5
Shane Reynolds 243.1 5.25 4.8 1.7
AVERAGE 752 3.70 3.6 17.0

Out of all of Strasburg’s comps, only one pitcher, Shane Reynolds, aged poorly. Roy Halladay’s injuries prevented him from pitching longer, but he still managed 10.5 WAR after his age-33 season. While Randy Johnson’s incredible career is doing a decent amount of work above, the pitchers averaged four wins per year in their mid-to-late-30s. Even looking at the median gives us 3.7 WAR per season during that time. We don’t know for sure how Strasburg will age, and injuries could certainly derail the latter half of his career, but pitchers who have pitched like Strasburg have aged incredibly well. The average WAR totals for these pitchers from age-31 through age-37 was 32.1 WAR with a 28.7 WAR median, even beating the ZiPS projections.

The Nationals are taking a risk with Strasburg, but it’s possible their bigger risk isn’t in signing Strasburg, but in what that signing might mean for the team’s pursuit of Anthony Rendon. Mark Lerner recently indicated the club would not be able to sign both Strasburg and Rendon, though as I noted at the time, even if both were given contracts for $30 million per year, it would represent only $6 million more than they made with the Nationals in 2019. Earlier today, I posed a question to our readers asking who they think the Nationals would be better off pursuing between the two free agents. In the hours that followed, more than 1,000 readers weighed in; by nearly a 2-1 margin preferred Rendon to Strasburg. Tilting the scales even more given what we know now, the expected contract in the poll for Strasburg was $100 million less than what he’s actually set to receive, while Rendon’s contract came in at $210 million. The Nationals probably won’t regret signing Stephen Strasburg, but it’s possible they might regret letting Rendon go, if that’s what transpires.

Even with Strasburg’s $35 million salary (with some deferrals with interest), the Nationals payroll still comes to just $165 million, well below the $200 million-plus payrolls they’ve been carrying the last few years. If the team doesn’t keep Rendon, perhaps they will sign Josh Donaldson, but it certainly looks like the team has payroll room. Outside of Rendon and Donaldson, there aren’t any other impact position players available. The team is roughly one good player away from making themselves favorites in the National League East. Bringing back Strasburg is a positive move for next season and beyond, but they still have a little more work to do if they want to get back to the playoffs next season.


Strasburg Returns to DC

As first reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Stephen Strasburg has agreed on Monday afternoon to re-sign with the Washington Nationals. Strasburg’s new seven-year deal will net him $245 million, or a cool $35 million per season. The fancy new contract at least temporarily stands as the largest guaranteed payday in baseball history for a pitcher, eclipsing the $217 million the Red Sox inked with David Price after the 2015 season.

Strasburg and Anthony Rendon are players on the level that any team would have been hard-pressed to replace their production. To not sign at least one of the pair would likely be a strong enough hit to give the World Champion Nats a fairly difficult road to returning to the playoffs in 2020. Making it up in lesser deals for lesser lights has become even more difficult with players like Zack Wheeler, Mike Moustakas, and Yasmani Grandal, all players that could have conceivably helped a post-Rendonburg Nats, already signed.

At $35 million a year, unless the Nats were bluffing about only being able to sign one of their free agents, this likely closes the book on Rendon’s time in Washington. With the team about $32 million from the first luxury tax threshold, Rendon might just barely sneak in. His number would have to be a little less than $30 million, as player benefits also count towards the luxury tax payroll. Unless the team clears payroll elsewhere, they’d have to get extremely creative in order to significantly improve first base, the bullpen, and possibly add another starter at the back of the rotation. It could very likely make them barrel through the $228 million threshold, something they may want to avoid with Adam Eaton, Sean Doolittle, and Max Scherzer nearing free agency and Juan Soto hitting arbitration soon. If the team could truly only sign one of the players, I think Strasburg is the right choice.

Carter Kieboom is unlikely to replace Rendon’s production in 2020 or 2021, but he’s a significant prospect who could become a legitimate plus at the hot corner fairly quickly. I don’t think the upside of whoever would have replaced Strasburg without an additional signing (Austin Voth or Joe Ross) matches what the Nats have in Kieboom. Read the rest of this entry »


You Pick: Anthony Rendon or Stephen Strasburg?

The Nationals just won the World Series thanks in large part thanks to stars Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. The pair were great for Washington in the regular season, combining for 13 wins; in the playoffs, Rendon posted an excellent 146 wRC+ and Strasburg became a playoff immortal.

The pair also earned around $54 million last season, with $10 million of that amount deferred as part of Strasburg’s contract. With both players now free agents, there are sizable holes for the Nationals to fill, both on the field and in their payroll. After running $200 million payrolls in each of the last three seasons, the club has only $132 million in salaries committed for next season, including arbitration estimates and minimum salaried players. When I looked at the teams with the most money to spend next season, I noted the $80 million gap between the Nationals’ 2020 commitments and 2019 payroll, and had this to say about their potential to spend:

The Nationals have a ton of money to spend coming off a World Series victory, and if they are going to get back to the playoffs, they will need to. If the team wanted, they could bring back both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg and because they stayed under the competitive balance tax amount last season, the penalties for going over next year are lessened. A big spend by the Nationals seems likely, though it won’t do much to change spending overall given where they were last year.

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RosterResource Free Agency Roundup: NL East

In part four of a six-part series — the AL East, AL Central, and AL West pieces have been published — I’ll be highlighting each team’s most notable free agents and how it could fill the resulting void on the roster. A player’s rank on our recently released Top 50 Free Agents list, along with Kiley McDaniel’s contract estimates from that exercise, are listed where relevant. In some cases, the team already has a capable replacement ready to step in. In others, it’s clear the team will either attempt to re-sign their player or look to the trade or free agent markets for help. The remaining cases are somewhere in between, with in-house candidates who might be the answer, but aren’t such obvious everyday players to keep the team from shopping around for better options.

Here’s a look at the National League East.

Atlanta Braves | Depth Chart | Payroll

Josh Donaldson, 3B
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 4
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 3 years, $71M

The Braves didn’t waste much time identifying Donaldson as their preferred third baseman for 2019 and inked him to a one-year, $23 million deal last November. A year later, Austin Riley is ready to step in at the hot corner while Donaldson, who will turn 34 next month, is expected to land a multi-year deal in the range of $20-$25 million per season.

As great a fit as he is in Atlanta, Donaldson will likely get better offers elsewhere with the Braves expected to prioritize starting pitching and catching. That doesn’t rule out a return, especially if the team can fill their biggest needs without breaking the bank. Read the rest of this entry »


The First Generation of Nationals Fans Has Its First Championship

In Washington, D.C., the roots of baseball fandom don’t run particularly deep. Sure, there are still a few fans of the old Washington Senators, but the last edition of that club bolted to Texas nearly half a century ago. The Homestead Grays also have a storied history, and an important one — but the Grays last took the field in 1951. Prior to 2005, baseball in Washington was a distant memory, and most fans in the D.C. metro region, many of whom originally hail from elsewhere, held allegiance to teams from different cities.

In 2001, a few months after I was born, my family moved from Northern California to Northern Virginia. We’re a family of baseball fans; my parents recall how when we moved during the 2001 World Series, one of the men who helped us was a diehard Yankees fan, rooting hard for the Bronx Bombers to win their 27th title.

In 2009, just a year after Nationals Park opened in the Navy Yard district, I attended my first ever Nats game — as a fan of the visiting San Diego Padres. My dad grew up in San Diego, and there we were, at Nationals Park, wearing Padres gear. The pitching matchup was star-studded: Chad Gaudin versus John Lannan. I don’t remember many details from the game; apparently an Austin Kearns walk-off single in the 10th won it for Washington. I doubt we were still at the park. Read the rest of this entry »


Will Harris Played Well, Didn’t Get Rewarded

When Will Harris entered Game 7 of the World Series, the Astros were in the driver’s seat. There was only one out in the seventh, and Houston was up by a lone run, but teams in that position usually win — per our Win Expectancy chart, that situation ends in victory 68.7% of the time.

68.7% is notably not 100%, however. When Harris threw Howie Kendrick an 0-1 cutter, Kendrick demonstrated why:

The game wasn’t over after that home run, but it proved decisive nonetheless. The Nationals never relinquished the lead, tacking on insurance runs in the eighth and ninth, and sharked their way to a World Series title. Harris gave up a single to Asdrúbal Cabrera before Roberto Osuna replaced him; after the game, he became a free agent, and may never pitch for the Astros again. Read the rest of this entry »


Toward a Unified Theory of Baby Shark

Gerardo Parra reached base only one time in the World Series, a walk against Josh James in Game 4. It wasn’t a key moment in the series — the Nationals were down 4-0, and while Parra scored, the Nats lost 8-1. When he reached first base, he was downright businesslike:

But businesslike isn’t normally a good description of Parra’s time on the Nationals. He’s widely regarded as a great clubhouse guy, ambushing Stephen Strasburg with hugs and keeping things light over the long grind of a season. He also, you may have heard, uses “Baby Shark” as his walkup music, a song that Nationals fans and players alike have rallied around.

If you’re curious, here’s a handy guide of the hand signals the Nationals make after hits:

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Bullpens Helped Decide the World Series

Just as we all predicted in the run-up to the World Series, relief pitching had a hand in determining the outcome. Though starting pitchers contributed admirably to relief efforts (two-thirds of a scoreless inning for the Astros, six scoreless for the Nationals), real relievers had to take the stage occasionally. And after you strip out those innings by starters, a trend emerges.

The Nationals bullpen was bad. That’s no shock — they were bad all year, and they were facing one of the best hitting teams of all time. Strip out Patrick Corbin’s four innings of lights-out relief, and Joe Ross’ two scoreless innings earlier in the series, and the balance of the bullpen recorded a 5.51 ERA, with as many walks as strikeouts. They allowed four home runs in only 16 and a third innings. Fernando Rodney’s line looks like a work of comedy — two innings, no strikeouts, six walks. It was more or less what every Nationals fan feared going into the series.

But if the Nationals bullpen was bad, the Astros bullpen was a full-fledged disaster. When the Astros needed relief innings, one of the best bullpens of the regular season simply wasn’t up to the task. Over 21 and a third innings, they recorded a 5.91 ERA and a 5.37 FIP. They kept their heads above water on the non-contact front, with 24 strikeouts and only 13 walks, but also gave up four home runs. Eight Houston relievers appeared in the series, and seven of them allowed runs.

But even that grim statistical record undersells things. Houston’s bullpen also allowed three unearned runs, while Washington’s pen allowed none. That leaves the Astros with a 7.17 RA/9 out of the bullpen, a number that almost doesn’t look like a baseball statistic. The Astros bullpen put together a 3.75 ERA in the regular season, and a 4.24 FIP. As recently as the ALCS, they’d looked like a cohesive unit, with a 4.12 ERA and 4.80 FIP — not great, but enough to get by against the fearsome Yankee offense. In the World Series, it all crumbled. Read the rest of this entry »