Stephen Strasburg entered the Nationals organization in 2009 as a 21-year-old super-prospect, an essentially finished product ready to pitch in the majors. A decade later, he has more than lived up to the hype, averaging four wins per season even after missing nearly all of the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery. The decade culminated with Strasburg’s best season, 36.1 brilliant postseason innings, and a World Series championship. After opting out of the final four seasons and $100 million owed to him under his previous contract, the Nationals made Strasburg’s return their top priority, with the team and player agreed to a record $245 million deal covering the next seven seasons as first reported by Jon Heyman. Ken Rosenthal reports that Strasburg also receives a no-trade clause with multiple award incentives with annual salaries of $35 million with $80 million in deferrals spread out equally over the contract to be paid with interest. Joel Sherman has indicated the deferrals will be paid in the first three years after the contract’s end.

In his post earlier this afternoon, Dan Szymborksi posted Strasburg’s ZiPS projections for the duration of the deal. Those projections gave Strasburg an impressive 27.5 WAR for his age-31 through age-37 seasons. According to Szymborksi’s projection, the $245 million figure is essentially a fair one. But the deal is still surprising for its magnitude. When FanGraphs crowdsourced free agent contracts for the Top 50 Free Agents post, the median contract estimate for Strasburg came out to $140 million with an average of about $154 million; Kiley McDaniel’s prediction came in at $150 million. With Strasburg and Gerrit Cole the only bonafide aces available, and multiple teams willing to dole out large sums of money for those aces, the market for Strasburg was evidently robust. As Scott Boras looks set to pit the Yankees and Angels against each other for Cole, Strasburg sat waiting as a potential backup option. Rather than run the risk of losing Strasburg to the Cole runner-up, Washington opted to jump the market and paid to avoid a potential bidding war.

There are certainly risks involved with signing a pitcher into his mid-to-late 30s. Strasburg has a Tommy John surgery in his past. From 2015 through 2018, he averaged under 150 innings, but innings totals can be a double-edged sword when looking at longevity. Strasburg’s low innings totals in the past can be held against him, just as the 245.1 innings he threw in 2019 can be held against him due to the extra mileage it put on his arm. Ultimately, the Nationals are paying Strasburg for what they expect him to do in the future. As noted above, Strasburg’s projections are good. To get a slightly better sense of how pitchers like Strasburg have performed, I looked for players within two wins of Strasburg’s 18 WAR from age 27 through 30 years old. I took out any player with more than 200 innings than Strasburg’s 662 during that time and looked at players within two wins of Strasburg’s 5.7 WAR total in 2019. I was left with eight players:

Strasburg comes up a bit short in his innings total, though his 50.1 postseason innings aren’t included above. It’s also worth mentioning that the two players closest to Strasburg in terms of innings were Curt Schilling and Roy Halladay. Four of the eight players above are already Hall of Famers. Kevin Brown and Schilling both have good cases for induction as well. Here’s how those eight players performed over their next three seasons:

There isn’t a bust in the group, and the players above actually got better in their early 30s, averaging five wins per season. The worst comp during those years is Bert Blyleven, who still managed to pitch close to 400 innings and average more than three wins per season. It’s possible that showing Strasburg’s near-term future as a largely positive one doesn’t say much that we don’t already know. What about the out years of the contract, when Strasburg’s deal might become a liability? Here’s how those same eight pitchers fared from age-34 through age-37, in what will be the last four years of Strasburg’s contract:

Out of all of Strasburg’s comps, only one pitcher, Shane Reynolds, aged poorly. Roy Halladay’s injuries prevented him from pitching longer, but he still managed 10.5 WAR after his age-33 season. While Randy Johnson’s incredible career is doing a decent amount of work above, the pitchers averaged four wins per year in their mid-to-late-30s. Even looking at the median gives us 3.7 WAR per season during that time. We don’t know for sure how Strasburg will age, and injuries could certainly derail the latter half of his career, but pitchers who have pitched like Strasburg have aged incredibly well. The average WAR totals for these pitchers from age-31 through age-37 was 32.1 WAR with a 28.7 WAR median, even beating the ZiPS projections.

The Nationals are taking a risk with Strasburg, but it’s possible their bigger risk isn’t in signing Strasburg, but in what that signing might mean for the team’s pursuit of Anthony Rendon. Mark Lerner recently indicated the club would not be able to sign both Strasburg and Rendon, though as I noted at the time, even if both were given contracts for $30 million per year, it would represent only $6 million more than they made with the Nationals in 2019. Earlier today, I posed a question to our readers asking who they think the Nationals would be better off pursuing between the two free agents. In the hours that followed, more than 1,000 readers weighed in; by nearly a 2-1 margin preferred Rendon to Strasburg. Tilting the scales even more given what we know now, the expected contract in the poll for Strasburg was $100 million less than what he’s actually set to receive, while Rendon’s contract came in at $210 million. The Nationals probably won’t regret signing Stephen Strasburg, but it’s possible they might regret letting Rendon go, if that’s what transpires.

Even with Strasburg’s $35 million salary (with some deferrals with interest), the Nationals payroll still comes to just $165 million, well below the $200 million-plus payrolls they’ve been carrying the last few years. If the team doesn’t keep Rendon, perhaps they will sign Josh Donaldson, but it certainly looks like the team has payroll room. Outside of Rendon and Donaldson, there aren’t any other impact position players available. The team is roughly one good player away from making themselves favorites in the National League East. Bringing back Strasburg is a positive move for next season and beyond, but they still have a little more work to do if they want to get back to the playoffs next season.

As first reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Stephen Strasburg has agreed on Monday afternoon to re-sign with the Washington Nationals. Strasburg’s new seven-year deal will net him $245 million, or a cool $35 million per season. The fancy new contract at least temporarily stands as the largest guaranteed payday in baseball history for a pitcher, eclipsing the $217 million the Red Sox inked with David Price after the 2015 season.

Strasburg and Anthony Rendon are players on the level that any team would have been hard-pressed to replace their production. To not sign at least one of the pair would likely be a strong enough hit to give the World Champion Nats a fairly difficult road to returning to the playoffs in 2020. Making it up in lesser deals for lesser lights has become even more difficult with players like Zack Wheeler, Mike Moustakas, and Yasmani Grandal, all players that could have conceivably helped a post-Rendonburg Nats, already signed.

At $35 million a year, unless the Nats were bluffing about only being able to sign one of their free agents, this likely closes the book on Rendon’s time in Washington. With the team about $32 million from the first luxury tax threshold, Rendon might just barely sneak in. His number would have to be a little less than $30 million, as player benefits also count towards the luxury tax payroll. Unless the team clears payroll elsewhere, they’d have to get extremely creative in order to significantly improve first base, the bullpen, and possibly add another starter at the back of the rotation. It could very likely make them barrel through the $228 million threshold, something they may want to avoid with Adam Eaton, Sean Doolittle, and Max Scherzer nearing free agency and Juan Soto hitting arbitration soon. If the team could truly only sign one of the players, I think Strasburg is the right choice.

Carter Kieboom is unlikely to replace Rendon’s production in 2020 or 2021, but he’s a significant prospect who could become a legitimate plus at the hot corner fairly quickly. I don’t think the upside of whoever would have replaced Strasburg without an additional signing (Austin Voth or Joe Ross) matches what the Nats have in Kieboom. Read the rest of this entry »

The Nationals just won the World Series thanks in large part thanks to stars Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. The pair were great for Washington in the regular season, combining for 13 wins; in the playoffs, Rendon posted an excellent 146 wRC+ and Strasburg became a playoff immortal.

The pair also earned around $54 million last season, with $10 million of that amount deferred as part of Strasburg’s contract. With both players now free agents, there are sizable holes for the Nationals to fill, both on the field and in their payroll. After running $200 million payrolls in each of the last three seasons, the club has only $132 million in salaries committed for next season, including arbitration estimates and minimum salaried players. When I looked at the teams with the most money to spend next season, I noted the $80 million gap between the Nationals’ 2020 commitments and 2019 payroll, and had this to say about their potential to spend:

The Nationals have a ton of money to spend coming off a World Series victory, and if they are going to get back to the playoffs, they will need to. If the team wanted, they could bring back both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg and because they stayed under the competitive balance tax amount last season, the penalties for going over next year are lessened. A big spend by the Nationals seems likely, though it won’t do much to change spending overall given where they were last year.

Read the rest of this entry »

In part four of a six-part series — the AL East, AL Central, and AL West pieces have been published — I’ll be highlighting each team’s most notable free agents and how it could fill the resulting void on the roster. A player’s rank on our recently released Top 50 Free Agents list, along with Kiley McDaniel’s contract estimates from that exercise, are listed where relevant. In some cases, the team already has a capable replacement ready to step in. In others, it’s clear the team will either attempt to re-sign their player or look to the trade or free agent markets for help. The remaining cases are somewhere in between, with in-house candidates who might be the answer, but aren’t such obvious everyday players to keep the team from shopping around for better options.

Here’s a look at the National League East.

Atlanta Braves | Depth Chart | Payroll

Josh Donaldson, 3B
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 4
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 3 years, $71M

The Braves didn’t waste much time identifying Donaldson as their preferred third baseman for 2019 and inked him to a one-year, $23 million deal last November. A year later, Austin Riley is ready to step in at the hot corner while Donaldson, who will turn 34 next month, is expected to land a multi-year deal in the range of $20-$25 million per season.

As great a fit as he is in Atlanta, Donaldson will likely get better offers elsewhere with the Braves expected to prioritize starting pitching and catching. That doesn’t rule out a return, especially if the team can fill their biggest needs without breaking the bank. Read the rest of this entry »

In Washington, D.C., the roots of baseball fandom don’t run particularly deep. Sure, there are still a few fans of the old Washington Senators, but the last edition of that club bolted to Texas nearly half a century ago. The Homestead Grays also have a storied history, and an important one — but the Grays last took the field in 1951. Prior to 2005, baseball in Washington was a distant memory, and most fans in the D.C. metro region, many of whom originally hail from elsewhere, held allegiance to teams from different cities.

In 2001, a few months after I was born, my family moved from Northern California to Northern Virginia. We’re a family of baseball fans; my parents recall how when we moved during the 2001 World Series, one of the men who helped us was a diehard Yankees fan, rooting hard for the Bronx Bombers to win their 27th title.

In 2009, just a year after Nationals Park opened in the Navy Yard district, I attended my first ever Nats game — as a fan of the visiting San Diego Padres. My dad grew up in San Diego, and there we were, at Nationals Park, wearing Padres gear. The pitching matchup was star-studded: Chad Gaudin versus John Lannan. I don’t remember many details from the game; apparently an Austin Kearns walk-off single in the 10th won it for Washington. I doubt we were still at the park. Read the rest of this entry »

When Will Harris entered Game 7 of the World Series, the Astros were in the driver’s seat. There was only one out in the seventh, and Houston was up by a lone run, but teams in that position usually win — per our Win Expectancy chart, that situation ends in victory 68.7% of the time.

68.7% is notably not 100%, however. When Harris threw Howie Kendrick an 0-1 cutter, Kendrick demonstrated why:

The game wasn’t over after that home run, but it proved decisive nonetheless. The Nationals never relinquished the lead, tacking on insurance runs in the eighth and ninth, and sharked their way to a World Series title. Harris gave up a single to Asdrúbal Cabrera before Roberto Osuna replaced him; after the game, he became a free agent, and may never pitch for the Astros again. Read the rest of this entry »

Gerardo Parra reached base only one time in the World Series, a walk against Josh James in Game 4. It wasn’t a key moment in the series — the Nationals were down 4-0, and while Parra scored, the Nats lost 8-1. When he reached first base, he was downright businesslike:

But businesslike isn’t normally a good description of Parra’s time on the Nationals. He’s widely regarded as a great clubhouse guy, ambushing Stephen Strasburg with hugs and keeping things light over the long grind of a season. He also, you may have heard, uses “Baby Shark” as his walkup music, a song that Nationals fans and players alike have rallied around.

If you’re curious, here’s a handy guide of the hand signals the Nationals make after hits:

Read the rest of this entry »

Just as we all predicted in the run-up to the World Series, relief pitching had a hand in determining the outcome. Though starting pitchers contributed admirably to relief efforts (two-thirds of a scoreless inning for the Astros, six scoreless for the Nationals), real relievers had to take the stage occasionally. And after you strip out those innings by starters, a trend emerges.

The Nationals bullpen was bad. That’s no shock — they were bad all year, and they were facing one of the best hitting teams of all time. Strip out Patrick Corbin’s four innings of lights-out relief, and Joe Ross’ two scoreless innings earlier in the series, and the balance of the bullpen recorded a 5.51 ERA, with as many walks as strikeouts. They allowed four home runs in only 16 and a third innings. Fernando Rodney’s line looks like a work of comedy — two innings, no strikeouts, six walks. It was more or less what every Nationals fan feared going into the series.

But if the Nationals bullpen was bad, the Astros bullpen was a full-fledged disaster. When the Astros needed relief innings, one of the best bullpens of the regular season simply wasn’t up to the task. Over 21 and a third innings, they recorded a 5.91 ERA and a 5.37 FIP. They kept their heads above water on the non-contact front, with 24 strikeouts and only 13 walks, but also gave up four home runs. Eight Houston relievers appeared in the series, and seven of them allowed runs.

But even that grim statistical record undersells things. Houston’s bullpen also allowed three unearned runs, while Washington’s pen allowed none. That leaves the Astros with a 7.17 RA/9 out of the bullpen, a number that almost doesn’t look like a baseball statistic. The Astros bullpen put together a 3.75 ERA in the regular season, and a 4.24 FIP. As recently as the ALCS, they’d looked like a cohesive unit, with a 4.12 ERA and 4.80 FIP — not great, but enough to get by against the fearsome Yankee offense. In the World Series, it all crumbled. Read the rest of this entry »

By the time he stepped to the plate with one out in the seventh inning of Wednesday night’s Game 7, Howie Kendrick had already collected his share of postseason heroics, key hits that stood out even on a team featuring an MVP candidate and a precociously disciplined slugger, not to mention two bona fide aces and a $140 million third starter-turned-reliever. Exactly three weeks earlier, the 36-year-old utilityman-turned-designated hitter had swatted a 10th-inning grand slam in the fifth and deciding game of the Division Series, felling the 106-win Dodgers. His 5-for-14, four-RBI showing against the Cardinals earned him NLCS MVP honors, and he’d lucked into a bases-loaded infield single in the rally that swung Game 2 of the World Series. The best was yet to come.

With Houston’s lead freshly cut to 2-1 by Anthony Rendon’s home run, and starter Zack Greinke — who had been brilliant and stifling through six innings — suddenly exiting after walking Juan Soto, Kendrick etched himself into World Series lore by slicing an 0-1 changeup from Will Harris down the line and off the screen attached to the right field foul pole.

Read the rest of this entry »

Five times, the Washington Nationals faced elimination from the 2019 postseason. Five times, they trailed in those games. And five times, they prevailed. The Washington Nationals are World Series Champions. They were 19-31 in the late days of May. They were down 3-1 in the Wild Card Game with Josh Hader coming in. They were down 3-1 in Game 5 against the Dodgers. They were down 2-1 yesterday, coming back to Houston after scoring just three runs in their three, first-ever World Series home games, and they were down 2-0 entering the seventh yesterday. But the Washington Nationals are World Series Champions. That’s how the story of the 2019 season ends.

***

The game already promised to be a monumental one. It was a Game 7. It was a showdown between two of the game’s longest-tenured and best pitchers, Scherzer vs. Greinke: Max Scherzer, the overpowering madman risen from the grave of debilitating neck pain to pitch in the biggest game of his career, and Zack Greinke, the big acquisition of the trade deadline, the player who had once nearly left baseball due to anxiety now calmly preparing to take on the most anxiety-inducing situation in baseball. For the first time in history, all six previous games had been won by the road team, the Nationals and the Astros stunning each other and their home crowds by turns. The series win expectancy flipped over and over on itself. Now, though, it was a matter of one game.

Right from the outset, Greinke was masterful. He retired the side in the top of the first on just eight pitches. A slider for a lineout snagged by Alex Bregman, a changeup and a slider for a pair of weak groundouts. A swinging strike on a 68 mph curveball. And for six innings, the game was exactly that: Greinke’s. He controlled the edges of Jim Wolf’s pitcher-friendly strike zone, controlled the infield with his sure-handed fielding of each of the many balls hit his way, as if to accentuate the degree to which the game was steady in his grip. Through six innings, the Nationals managed just a single hit and a single walk. Any lead, with that kind of performance ongoing, would seem like a clear path to the championship.

Read the rest of this entry »