The weekend before the trade deadline was light on big names moving — poor Eugenio Suárez has probably had to take his phone charger out of his go bag a dozen times this month — but we did see plenty of preliminary action. The Orioles began their sell-off by shipping hard-throwing left-hander Gregory Soto up to the Mets. Meanwhile, the Royals sought to maintain their spot on the postseason wait list by picking up a right-handed bat from Arizona: not Suárez, but Randal Grichuk.
“All in all, we got good news today,” Yankees manager Aaron Boonetold reporters on Saturday. “I think all of us kind of feared the worst.” On Sunday, the good news Boone was referring to became official. The scuffling Yankees placed Aaron Judge on the 10-day injured list with a flexor strain in his right elbow, but not a torn UCL. Judge underwent an MRI on Saturday, and based on reports that the Yankees think Judge has a chance to miss only the minimum 10 days, it seems safe to assume that the imaging revealed only a minor strain. He has received a platelet-rich plasma injection and won’t throw for 10 days to two weeks. Crucially, returning after the minimum would also allow Judge to be back by the time of his bobblehead day on August 13. The Yankees also traded for utility player Amed Rosario on Sunday, but we’ll cover that move after addressing the news about Judge.
Concern about the elbow arose last Tuesday, when Judge was noticed grimacing after throwing the ball in to the infield. The right fielder did his best to tamp down concerns, telling reporters, “I make facial expressions all the time,” in his characteristic deadpan. He also downplayed the injury to the organization, trying to push off calls for an MRI. “You never want to go in the tube,” he said. But he DH’d on Wednesday and exhibited more discomfort on Friday. “Throwing is the main concern,” Judge said on Saturday. “Hitting happens too quick, and it’s not really the motion that I felt anything. I think the muscle that hurts is the muscle used to grip, so there might be some issues with that.” Over his past nine games, he’s batting .143 with a 35 wRC+. That stretch dropped his best-in-baseball 220 wRC+ all the way down to a still-best-in-baseball 208. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the absolute best-case scenario is that Judge returns after 10 days, then needs just 10 days at DH before getting back to right field. Read the rest of this entry »
Location: Boston, MA, United States Department: Baseball Operations Status: Full-time
DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
Members of the Baseball Systems team at the Boston Red Sox are focused on designing, building, and refining the software and data pipelines used within Baseball Operations. These tools and applications are an integral part of the decision-making process, are directly integrated in the workflows of all departments within Baseball Operations, and provide an efficient, consistent, and accessible experience when interacting with our internal data sources and applications.
POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking a Senior Data Engineer, Baseball Systems who is a hands-on database expert responsible for administering and optimizing large-scale SQL environments, building robust data pipelines, and ensuring high-performance access to critical baseball operations data across on-prem and cloud platforms.
The ideal candidate thrives in a fast-paced environment, is comfortable managing both modern Snowflake-based pipelines and legacy SQL Server systems, and brings a strong sense of ownership to delivering scalable, efficient, and maintainable data solutions that directly impact decision-making throughout Baseball Operations. This role is central to the reliability and evolution of the Red Sox’s data infrastructure, supporting analysts, developers, and systems engineers across player evaluation, baseball sciences, and scouting domains.
RESPONSIBILITIES
Administer and optimize Snowflake and SQL Server environments, including warehouse sizing, query tuning, and access control policies
Develop robust data transformation pipelines, leveraging data from both APIs and file-based sources
Leverage tools like dbt, Snowpipe, and Snowpark for data transformations
Design, manage, and monitor data pipelines that move structured and unstructured data from Azure Blob Storage into Snowflake, ensuring reliability, performance, and cost-efficiency
Maintain and modernize legacy SQL Server data pipelines, improving performance through query optimization, indexing strategies, and resource tuning
Contribute to the infrastructure design and software lifecycle phases—including technical design, testing, implementation, and quality assurance
Provide proactive support for critical production systems, resolving pipeline or performance issues quickly and effectively
Partner with software developers, analysts, and other stakeholders to support analytical, operational, and reporting needs across Baseball Operations
Participate in code reviews, architecture discussions, and DevOps best practices with the data engineering and software development teams
COMPETENCIES
Aptitude and ability to apply academic or applied experience in software development or data engineering related field.
An advanced understanding of modern databases, SQL and query optimizations, stored procedures, views, and other db objects
Able to design data solutions to allow for cost-effective, scalable, fast, and flexible solutions to support front-end development, analyst work, and data health and monitoring needs
Able to pick up quickly and think both creatively and critically to solve problems
A basic understanding of contemporary baseball and/or sports analysis and development practices
A team-player that collaborates effectively with technical and non-technical stakeholders
ADDITIONAL QUALIFICATIONS
Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Software Engineering, Computer Engineering, or a related technical field
3-5 years of experience in a data engineering or data platform role with a focus on database performance and pipeline reliability
Strong SQL development and optimization skills, including experience with stored procedures, indexing, and query tuning in SQL Server
Hands-on experience administering and developing in Snowflake, including warehouse scaling, role-based access, and usage monitoring
Proficiency in building and maintaining data pipelines from Azure Blob Storage to Snowflake, using tools like dbt, Snowpipe (or equivalent)
Solid understanding of ELT/ETL concepts and data architecture best practices across cloud and hybrid systems
Familiarity with DBT for data transformation and modeling is strongly preferred
Experience with GraphQL is a plus but not required
Ability to work autonomously and as a team in a fast paced environment
High level of attention to detail with the ability to multi-task effectively
Comfortable working remotely when required and using Zoom, Teams, Slack, Trello, and other tools to communicate with all team members
High degree of professionalism and ability to maintain confidential information
Excellent organizational and time management skills
In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.
In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.
Austin Hays is having a productive-when-healthy season with the Cincinnati Reds. The 30-year-old outfielder has missed time with a calf strain, a hamstring strain, and a foot contusion, but he’s also slashed .282/.338/.510 with 10 home runs in 228 plate appearances. Moreover, his 128 wRC+ and .360 wOBA are both second on the team (behind Elly De La Cruz) among those with at least 140 PAs.
His résumé is that of a solid hitter. From 2021-2023— his first full seasons in the majors — Hays had 97 doubles and 54 home runs, as well as a wRC+ ranging between 106 and 111. Those three seasons were spent with the Baltimore Orioles, who subsequently swapped him to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache a few days before last July’s trade deadline. Hays’s 2024 campaign was the worst of his career. Hampered by injuries and illness — a kidney infection proved most problematic — he had a 97 wRC+ while playing in just 85 games. The Reds then inked him to a free agent contract over the winter,
Which brings us to the crux of this column’s lead item: the reasons behind the success he’s currently having.
“Consistency is probably the biggest thing,” Hays told me. “There’s not always an adjustment to be made. Sometimes it’s just the game [and] you’re being pitched tough. I don’t want to be altering too much of what I do well. In the past, I would sometimes pay too much attention to what the pitcher was doing and try to adjust to that. Staying strong to my strengths — locking in on those strengths — is going to help me over the course of 162 [games].” Read the rest of this entry »
McMahon was drafted by Colorado in 2013 and has spent his entire nine-year career with the Rockies; he ranks ninth in franchise history in games played. He is in the fourth year of a six-year, $70 million extension, and the Yankees will take on the rest of his remaining contract. He is owed a tad less than $4.2 million this season, and $16 million a year in both 2026 and 2027. At the time of the trade, the Yankees have an 88.8% chance of making the playoffs, but they’re 4 1/2 games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East after dropping two of three in Toronto earlier this week. New York could use a boost, and to say that McMahon has the potential to fill a position of need would be an understatement. Read the rest of this entry »
Rob Schumacher/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The deafening quiet of this year’s July trade market was disturbed on Thursday night with the announcement that the Seattle Mariners were acquiring first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Naylor has provided more than respectable offense for the Snakes this year, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 homers, good for a 123 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR. Heading to the desert in return are two minor league pitchers, lefty Brandyn Garcia and righty Ashton Izzi.
While the Diamondbacks have generally disappointed in 2025, little of the fault can be placed at Naylor’s feet. The team expected to compete in 2025, but lost Christian Walker to the Astros in free agency, so the hope was that Naylor would fill the hole for a year before hitting the open market himself. He was never going to be an elite defensive first baseman like Walker, but the expectation was that he would at least provide a similar level of offense. Naylor is likely to fall well short of his career-high 31 homers from 2024, but he’s compensated for that by adding nearly 50 points of batting average, meaning his 123 wRC+ is actually slightly higher than his 119 mark from last season.
If the season ended today, the Mariners would make the playoffs as the second AL Wild Card, and the five-game separation between them and the division-leading Astros is not an insurmountable distance. Houston’s edge in the AL West seems even smaller when you consider how much of its lineup is currently out hurt. The injured quartet of Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Peña, and Jake Meyers would represent a huge chunk of any team’s offensive value. First base has been a particular source of trouble for the M’s this year, with their first basemen ranking in the bottom third in baseball with a combined 0.4 WAR. The original plan had been for Luke Raley to get the lion’s share of the playing time at first, mostly against righties, with fill-ins around him to take care of the southpaws. However, injuries to Mitch Haniger and Victor Robles thinned out Seattle’s corner outfield and DH depth and pushed Raley mostly to right field. As a result, the team was forced to give a lot of playing time to Rowdy Tellez; he posted an execrable .249 on-base percentage with the Mariners before they dropped him in June.
Naylor is not a superstar, so naturally, his acquisition doesn’t dramatically change the face of the AL West race. After last night’s win over the Angels, ZiPS gave the Mariners a 76% chance to make the playoffs and a 24% probability to win the division. These numbers would be 72% and 21% without the trade.
So, what’s the cost for their new first baseman? Neither Garcia, nor Izzi was torching up the prospect lists, but then again, Naylor is a free agent after the season, making this trade is a pure short-term rental. The 25-year-old Garcia has already made a brief major league debut, and since I don’t believe the Diamondbacks are going to go full rebuild, that has a lot of allure over the compensation draft pick they would have gotten if they’d held onto Naylor and he’d signed elsewhere this offseason. Garcia is a hard-throwing lefty sinkerballer with a three-quarters delivery who predictably induces a lot of grounders. My colleague Eric Longenhagen gave him a 40+ FV when Seattle’s top prospects list was published last month.
The ZiPS projections see Garcia as a solid, though unspectacular, mid-bullpen arm with at least some upside.
ZiPS Projection – Brandyn Garcia
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
3
3
4.22
57
0
53.3
48
25
5
22
45
98
0.0
2027
3
3
4.10
56
0
52.7
47
24
5
21
45
101
0.1
2028
3
2
4.08
55
0
53.0
46
24
4
21
45
102
0.2
2029
3
2
3.92
46
0
43.7
39
19
4
17
37
106
0.1
2030
2
2
4.06
40
0
37.7
33
17
3
15
32
102
0.1
2031
2
1
4.06
33
0
31.0
27
14
2
12
26
102
0.1
ZiPS 2026 Percentiles – Brandyn Garcia
Percentile
ERA+
ERA
WAR
95%
128
3.23
0.7
90%
122
3.40
0.6
80%
114
3.65
0.4
70%
107
3.88
0.2
60%
102
4.06
0.2
50%
98
4.22
0.0
40%
93
4.43
-0.1
30%
90
4.59
-0.2
20%
86
4.83
-0.3
10%
77
5.36
-0.6
5%
71
5.82
-0.9
As a 21-year-old in High-A ball, Ashton Izzi has more developing to do than Garcia, but even with decidedly mixed results, the righty showed enough upside for Eric to also give him a 40+ FV. According to Eric, Izzi boasts a four-seamer that sits around 94 mph with solid movement. He gets “near elite” extension with his fastball, but it doesn’t generate many whiffs. Izzi also has a usefully average two-seamer, Eric says, as well as a sweeper and a cutter; the sweeper is a big swing-and-miss pitch for him. His changeup is mediocre, and Eric is concerned that Izzi will struggle to develop a good weapon to wield against lefties. Overall, per Eric, if Izzi can clear his developmental hurdles, he can make the majors as a starter.
In all, I think getting two real prospects, one who can impact the parent club immediately, is an absolutely fair return for Naylor. The Mariners have only two playoff wins over the last two decades, and now is the time to go all-in to add to that total. Their offense is better this season than in previous years, but they still needed to fill their hole at first base, and Naylor represents a major upgrade over what they had before.
Nick Allen is definitely going to show up on my FanGraphs Walk-Off page. I’ve checked in on him a lot over the last month, but of the 1,664 stats on his player page (yes, I counted them all), I’ve really only been paying attention to one number. I just want to know how many plate appearances Allen has. The answer is 304, and that won’t do.
A month ago, I wrote about homerless qualifiers, the all-but-extinct subset of players who come to the plate often enough to qualify for the batting title – a minimum of 3.1 plate appearances per team game, or 502 over a 162-game season – without hitting even a single home run. At the time, Xavier Edwards was the only homerless qualifier left, but I didn’t believe in him – which is to say that I did believe he had the capacity to hit a home run. He did just that on July 12, blasting a 97.8-mph wall-scraper off Scott Blewett:
On any given pitch, a swing-and-miss is the best possible outcome for the pitcher. The ball isn’t put in play, the count advances in favor of the pitcher, and the batter may look a little foolish in the process. It stands to reason that pitchers who possess multiple pitches that run above-average whiff rates will likely have strong strikeout rates, too. Then there’s another, much smaller group of pitchers who have multiple pitches with elite whiff rates. Those rare hurlers will surely have the best strikeout rates in baseball, right? Among all starting pitchers this season, there are just eight who possess multiple pitches that generate a whiff more than 40% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore leads the way with three of these elite bat-missing weapons, followed by a few of the game’s best strikeout artists. At the bottom, though, are two pitchers whose strikeout rates are much lower than you’d expect given their ability to generate whiffs: groundball specialist José Soriano and rookie Cade Horton. (As an aside, Horton’s changeup has the third-highest whiff rate of any pitch thrown at least 100 times this year, yet his strikeout rate is an unimpressive 17.6%.)
What happens if you lower the threshold to pitches with whiff rates north of 30%? There are 18 starters with three or more of these less-effective-but-still-impressive pitches. Spoiler: Soriano shows up again. Read the rest of this entry »
Tyler Mahle was 23 years old and had 20 big league innings under his belt when our 2018 Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects list was published in January of that year. A seventh-round pick out of an Orange County high school five years earlier, Mahle was ranked fourth in the system, with Eric Longenhagen assigning him a 50 FV.
Mahle has gone on to have an injury-marred career. Most notably, he underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, less than a year after he’d been dealt from the Reds to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, and Steve Hajjar at the trade deadline.
When healthy, the 30-year-old right-hander has been a quality pitcher more often than not. In 2021, he made 33 starts for Cincinnati and went 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA and a 3.80 FIP over 180 innings. Moreover, Mahle was on track for an even better season when he went on the shelf seven weeks ago with what has since been diagnosed as a right rotator cuff strain. In 14 starts comprising 77 innings with the Texas Rangers, Mahle had a record of 6-3 to go with a 2.34 ERA and a 3.37 FIP. His status for the remainder of the current campaign is unclear.
What did Mahle’s 2018 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Before he went on the injured list, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Mahle to respond to it.
———
“After 24 hyper-efficient starts at Double and Triple-A, Mahle finally got a four-start cup of coffee in Cincinnati at the end of the season. His ability to locate was not on display in the big leagues, but it’s what got Mahle there.”
“Not great,” Mahle said of his four starts in 2017. “I was wild. My first two or three starts, I’d thrown something like 50 pitches by time I got through two innings. So yeah, not very efficient. But I got through it. Then I got off to a decent start the next year, in 2018, but pitched kind of hurt toward the end of that season.”
“He has above-average fastball command despite a somewhat noisy delivery; it should tighten another half-grade as Mahle hits his peak.”
“Hmm… yeah, my delivery back then was super stiff,” he said. “I held my glove up high and it stayed there until I broke my hands. Looking back, my delivery was, again, super stiff. A lot has changed there.
“Honestly, I don’t remember exactly,” Mahle said when asked when he made the adjustment. “It must have been with [Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson]. We kind of took away some movement in the hands. Instead of going from up high to down low, we started going from the belt to make it a little simpler.”
“His stuff is middling, spearheaded by a slightly above-average fastball/slider combination out of which Mahle squeezes every ounce of juice due to his ability to locate.”
“I was pitching with pretty much all fastballs at that time,” the righty recalled. “My slider was super inconsistent. I didn’t have a splitter like I have now. I basically just relied on the fastball.”
“He adds and subtracts from his fastball, exhibiting velocities anywhere from 88 to 95, touching 96 regularly, and maxing out at 98.”
“Yeah, but not so much anymore,” Mahle admitted. “I kind of live low 90s now and will top around 95. But relying so much on my fastball back then, I had to try to overpower guys with it. I had to try to throw it hard.”
“While Mahle’s change doesn’t have terrific movement, his ability to manipulate pitch speed without noticeable arm deceleration helps make it a viable third offering.”
“Yep. I mean, that was me,” Mahle said. “I didn’t have much of a changeup, so I had to try to place it in the zone, or wherever I was trying to get it. Like my slider, it was just super inconsistent. The arm speed… I actually feel like I probably did have to change it, based on what I was throwing. I maybe telegraphed a lot back then. Now I can throw everything with pretty much the same arm speed.”
“His stuff isn’t overwhelming, but his command should allow him to survive as an average big league starter.”
“That’s how I’ve gotten by,” the nine-year veteran acknowledged. “My command, still now… like, my fastball isn’t an overpowering pitch velo-wise, but I locate it. I also get some good ride on it. Back then, I didn’t know that. I just knew that it did well up in the zone. But yeah, I kind of lived off the location of my pitches.
“I understand everything a lot more now,” Mahle added. “I know why it works well up in the zone, and what the separation is on each pitch, and why they’re doing what they’re doing. Compared to now, back then I was pretty much just throwing.”
Over the past month, every red-blooded American with a phone and a passing familiarity with baseball has posted some version of the following sentiment: This crop of trade candidates stinks. It’s true.
Somewhat conveniently for the purposes of my argument, Ben Clemens wrapped up his annual Trade Value series this morning. He has 50 players on his rankings proper, plus 65 more in the Honorable Mentions post. I’ve seen persistent, at least semi-credible trade rumors about one player on the top 50: Byron Buxton. Buxton is one of the most talented baseball players who ever lived, but his injuries and maddening inconsistency have become his reputation. This is reflected not only in his incredibly incentive-laden Twins contract, but his spot on the trade value list: no. 41.
More to the point, Buxton recently declared that he has no interest whatsoever in waiving his full no-trade clause to allow a move to a contender. His exact words: “I don’t want to play anywhere else.” It doesn’t get more unequivocal than that. Read the rest of this entry »
