On Wednesday afternoon, I briefly thought that A.J. Hinch had lost his mind. I really don’t know how else to explain it. With runners on the corners and one out in the top of the seventh inning of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series between the Tigers and the Guardians — which Cleveland won, 6-1 — Detroit had Riley Greene, its best hitter, at the plate with a chance to break a 1-1 tie. The Guardians went to the bullpen, bringing in lefty Tim Herrin. Herrin, a 6-foot-6 curveball specialist, figured to be a tough matchup for Greene; he’s been lights out against same-handed batters throughout his career. But then Hinch made a surprising call to the bench. He pulled Greene back and pinch-hit with Jahmai Jones – and now here I am writing this article.

Jones had one key thing going for him here: Like Inigo Montoya, he is not left-handed. He’s also hit lefties much better than righties in his brief major league career, and in his minor league career, too. Greene, on the other hand, is a poor left-on-left hitter. So you can at least see where Hinch’s decision was coming from. I want to give this kind of shocking decision the full consideration it deserves before just laughing it out of the building – after all, what if it was the right call? So let’s do all the math to get an idea of what Hinch was giving up, and what he was getting.

To model pitcher-against-batter outcomes, I first took projections for both players, the granular ones that consider specific outcomes. I also calculated platoon splits for each player by taking their observed career splits and regressing them toward league average based on sample size. I put those two projections – hitter and pitcher – into a modified log5 formula and used it to predict the likelihood of each possible outcome of a plate appearance. Then I applied those outcomes to the game state when Greene’s spot came up in the lineup.

That’s a lot of explanation jammed into one paragraph, so I think an example is in order. Let’s say that the Jones-Herrin confrontation results in a single 25% of the time, a deep fly ball 25% of the time, a strikeout 25% of the time, and a walk 25% of the time. Those are nowhere near reasonable, of course, but just an example. A single would mean runners on first and second (at least) and a 2-1 lead, for a win probability of 73.4%. A deep sacrifice fly? That would get the Tigers to 66.6%. A strikeout? 50.1%. Walk? 65.7%. Average those four probabilities, and the Tigers come out with a 64% chance of winning the game. There are more than four possible outcomes, of course, but this process is how I turn outcomes into win probabilities. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Jazz Chisholm Jr. was not a happy camper on Tuesday night. Despite a 31-homer, 31-steal season that included a solid showing against left-handed pitching, he spent the first seven innings of the Wild Card Series opener against the Red Sox on the bench instead of facing lefty Garrett Crochet. After the Yankees’ 3-1 loss, he was left muttering almost inaudibly at his locker with his back to reporters — a surreal scene. Back in the lineup on Wednesday night against righty Brayan Bello, Chisholm went 0-for-3 but made huge contributions on both sides of the ball, with two standout defensive plays and an eighth-inning walk that turned into the decisive run when he motored home from first base on Austin Wells’ long go-ahead single. The Yankees’ 4-3 win kept their season alive, pushing the series to Game 3.

Despite hitting a respectable .248/.322/.411 (106 wRC+) against lefties this year (compared to .240/.336/.508, 134 wRC+ against righties), Chisholm sat on Tuesday night in favor of righty Amed Rosario — who played just one game at second base after being acquired from the Nationals on July 26 — apparently on the basis of Rosario’s owning a 6-for-9 career line with two extra-base hits against Crochet entering play Tuesday. Rosario went hitless in three plate appearances against the Boston ace before yielding to Chisholm in the eighth inning; Chisholm flied out with the bases loaded in the ninth against Aroldis Chapman.

Manager Aaron Boone wasn’t worried that Chisholm’s disappointment at being left out of the lineup would carry over into Game 2. “I don’t need him to put a happy face on,” Boone said Wednesday afternoon. “I need him to go out and play his butt off for us tonight. That’s what I expect to happen.” Read the rest of this entry »

The noble tiger is a rare beast, but Wednesday night, there was a sighting in Los Angeles. A NOBLETIGER, for those of you who are perhaps less online than I am, is a contrived but delightful acronym: No Outs Bases Loaded Ending in Team Incapable of Getting Easy Run. In other words, it’s a team going from bases loaded and nobody out to a scoreless inning, and Cincinnati’s feline accomplishment felt like the last moment before it was washed away by the crushing tide of Los Angeleno excellence.

The Reds started Game 2 of their Wild Card Series against the Dodgers with a burst of energy. A hit-by-pitch, a fielding error, a slashed groundball single, and suddenly the underdogs were up 2-0 on the indomitable Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They struggled to find much more traction against him for the next three innings, nine up and nine down, but those initial two runs gave them a bulwark against the perpetual Dodger onslaught on the other side of the field.

Zack Littell, Yamamoto’s counterpart, wasn’t quite as sharp, but he held the Dodgers at bay with smoke and mirrors for three innings. In the fourth, the constant pressure became too much; the bottom half of the Dodgers order struck for two runs, putting them up 3-2, and the Reds called in Nick Lodolo from the bullpen to escape the inning. After the teams exchanged scoreless frames in the fifth, the stage was set for our fateful inning.
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If there was a blueprint for a Padres victory this postseason, it would look a lot like their 3-0 victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. The Friars got some standout moments from superstars Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill, and their bullpen completely shut down the opposition behind a solid 3 2/3 inning start from Dylan Cease. The win forces a decisive final game of the Wild Card series on Thursday.

Pitching ruled the day for San Diego. Cease was excellent in his abbreviated start, allowing just four baserunners while striking out five. He generated 15 whiffs on 37 swings — a 41% whiff rate — and his slider was absolutely unhittable. He worked around harmless singles in the first and third innings. Only after a two-out double from Seiya Suzuki in the fourth did Padres manager Mike Shildt turn to his bullpen. After intentionally walking Carson Kelly to get to Pete Crow-Armstrong, Adrian Morejon quickly dismissed the Cubs center fielder with a weak groundout to first.

Morejon pitched two more clean innings, then handed the ball off to Mason Miller. Miller struck out five Cubs hitters in a row, then plunked Michael Busch with two outs in the eighth inning. With a man on first, Shildt again went to the bullpen, calling on Robert Suarez to get the final out. Nico Hoerner lined a pitch to deep right field, but Tatis made an acrobatic catch to end the inning. Suarez allowed a one-out single to Kyle Tucker in the ninth, but got Suzuki to hit into a game-ending double play to secure the victory.

With their season on the line, Shildt was obviously managing to win today. The quick hook with Cease meant that his bullpen needed to cover the remaining 5 1/3 innings. Cease had reached 69 pitches by the time Suzuki doubled in the fourth, but it didn’t look like he was laboring. Morejon had already gotten warm in the previous inning, and walking Kelly to get to Crow-Armstrong seemed like a good strategic move in an early high-leverage spot. PCA had limped to a .231 wOBA over the past two months and had produced just a .250 wOBA against left-handed pitching this year. But that short start from Cease and subsequent heavy bullpen usage obviously has some knock-on effects for Thursday’s game.

Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada have only been used once each in this series, but Morejon and Miller have thrown more than 40 pitches apiece. I’m sure both will say they’re available to pitch for a third day in a row, but Shildt has to be wary of burning them out. If Game 3 is close and the Padres are leading, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Miller for an inning on Thursday. Thankfully, Suarez and Estrada won’t have any restrictions for that final game in the series, and Michael King could be available to pitch if necessary.

Back to Wednesday’s game. San Diego got on the board early, scratching across a run in the first inning against opener Andrew Kittredge. Tatis and Luis Arraez started the game off with back-to-back singles and then successfully completed a double steal with one out in the inning. That put a runner on third for Jackson Merrill, who hit a deep sacrifice fly to get the first run on the board.

Cubs manager Craig Counsell’s decision to use Kittredge as an opener ahead of Shota Imanaga was reasonable. Imanaga has really struggled in the first inning this year — he has a 7.20 ERA in the first frame and a 5.08 ERA in his first time through a lineup — and he’d limped to a 6.51 ERA over his final five regular-season starts. Kittredge had been one of Chicago’s better high-leverage relievers since he was acquired from the Orioles in July, and a quick first inning could have set up Imanaga to face a string of left-handed batters in the middle of the Padres lineup in the second inning. Things just didn’t work out the way Counsell drew it up, and the team was on the back foot from the get-go.

The real killer blow came in the fifth inning. With a runner on second and two outs, Imanaga grooved a first-pitch splitter to Machado. The star third baseman launched the pitch 404 feet into the left field bleachers.

Machado finished the regular season in a bit of a weird slump. He blasted six home runs in September, but his overall line that month was just an 85 wRC+. That was an improvement over the 70 wRC+ he had posted in August, but he was still trying to regain his form after a customarily solid first half of the season.

I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention how absolutely dominant Miller has been in this series. In Game 1, he struck out the side in the seventh inning. Today, he picked up right where he left off, striking out five batters in a row before a back-foot slider to Busch grazed its intended target in the eighth. And then there was this absolute beauty of a pitch to strike out Kelly in the seventh:

At 104.5 mph, that was the fastest pitch ever recorded in the postseason, and the fourth-fastest pitch resulting in a strikeout in the pitch tracking era (regular-season or postseason). And the pitch dotted the lower outside corner for a called strike three! Miller’s four-seamer averaged 103.0 mph in his outing today. Just look at these absolutely insane results from his two outings in the postseason:

He’s been completely unhittable. I already discussed his availability for Game 3 above, but if the Padres need him, I’m sure he’ll be ready to pitch another shutdown inning on Thursday.

That decisive game will likely feature more bullpen machinations from both teams. Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon are listed as the starters, but I imagine both managers will be quick to pull them at the first sign of danger. If there’s one benefit to the Cubs’ loss on Wednesday, it’s that the best arms in their bullpen are rested. Kittredge will probably only be available in an emergency, but Daniel Palencia, Brad Keller, and Drew Pomeranz have all had a day’s rest ahead of Thursday’s contest. That just might give them the edge in what should be a very tightly contested elimination game.

The first inning was a harbinger. The eighth inning featured an offensive explosion for a team that all too often struggles to score. The Cleveland Guardians plated five runs to break a 1-1 tie and went on to beat a thoroughly frustrated Detroit Tigers team 6-1. The season-saving rally evened the best-of-three Wild Card series at one apiece, setting up a decisive finale for tomorrow afternoon in Cleveland.

The Tigers had their chances. Make that many chances — the first of which came as fans at Progressive Field were just settling into their seats. Parker Meadows pulled a groundball into the four-hole that second baseman Brayan Rocchio could only smother, giving Detroit the first of its 17 baserunners (yes, 17) on the day. Center fielder Chase DeLauter — playing in the first inning of his first big league game — then lost a battle with the sun and wind, dropping a fly ball and giving the Tabbies an early opportunity to open up a lead. Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee survived the little-fault-of-his-own threat. Three strikeouts later, the game went to the home half scoreless.

It didn’t remain scoreless for long. Two batters in, George Valera — a rookie with just 17 major league games under his belt — took Detroit starter Casey Mize deep. It was the first of three Guardians home runs on the day, and while it gave them an early lead, it paled in importance to the two that came later.

One of the game’s biggest plays took place in the fourth inning. With the bases juiced courtesy of a Riley Greene double and a pair of free passes, Javier Báez laced a two-out single to give the Tigers a 2-1 lead… or so it seemed. Zach McKinstry was thrown out trying to go first to third, and the out was recorded just before Dillon Dingler crossed the plate with what would have been the second tally. Initially ruled safe, McKinstry was ultimately determined to be out per video review — this on DeLauter’s first career outfield assist. Read the rest of this entry »

Dansby Swanson brought home back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2022 with the Braves and ’23 with the Cubs while leading the majors in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value in both seasons. Although he hasn’t added any hardware to his collection since then, and while his defensive metrics have slipped, he still grades out as comfortably above average in both FRV and Defensive Runs Saved. His defensive acumen was on display in Tuesday’s Wild Card Series opener between the Cubs and Padres, as he made a couple of pivotal, run-saving plays in Chicago’s 3-1 victory.

The Padres had taken the lead in the second inning, when Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts opened the frame with back-to-back doubles off Matthew Boyd; Bogaerts took third when center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s relay spurted away from Nico Hoerner at second base. Ryan O’Hearn then hit a sizzling 101-mph groundball, and Swanson, who was shaded up the middle, dove to his right to stop it. He looked Bogaerts back to third base, then threw to first for the out. The play loomed large as Bogaerts ended up stranded.

The Padres threatened again in the fourth, when Manny Machado drew a leadoff walk and took second on Merrill’s sacrifice bunt. Bogaerts legged out a chopper into the no-man’s land to the right of the mound for an infield single, and San Diego appeared poised to capitalize when O’Hearn hit a flare into shallow center field. Swanson had other ideas, making a great over-the-shoulder snag of the ball, then in one motion turning to fire home to keep Machado honest.

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This week, the baseball world turns its attention to the first round of the playoffs. It’s what we’ve spent the past six months waiting for. Nevertheless, the past 48 hours or so have brought a flurry of news events involving people and teams that (cue sad trombone sound effect) will not be taking part. Since the season ended on Sunday, seven teams made announcements about managers who were on the hot seat and/or wobbly chair:

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The margins were so thin on this first day of the 2025 postseason. Aces shoved, the games stayed close, and the high-leverage innings piled up; the first six teams to play combined for just 11 runs. At this unusual time of the year — when the patient regular season gives way to a best-of-three all-out sprint, when managers summon a flame-throwing reliever at the first sign of trouble — even a momentary slip in form can spell the end of the contest. And so it was for Hunter Greene in the third inning of the Dodgers’ (mostly) emphatic 10-5 win over the Reds in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series showdown. Greene faltered, the Dodgers capitalized, and Los Angeles gained a crucial series lead.

It seemed like this last game of the day would be yet another tightly contested pitchers’ duel. The Dodgers hurler, Blake Snell, headed into Tuesday night’s matchup in fine form, spinning a 2.01 FIP in September. He held up his end of the bargain, striking out nine Reds over seven innings, bullying the heavily right-handed lineup with hard heaters in and feathery changeups away. But for about 10 minutes, Greene was a touch off, and that was that. The Reds never really got back into the game after that four-run third inning, even as the shaky Los Angeles bullpen briefly stirred up a scene in the late innings. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK – One day before taking the mound at Yankee Stadium for the most important game of his life, Garrett Crochet sat in the visitor’s dugout with Alex Cora. A few members of the front office were out in the bullpen, and Cora told his ace that it’d be fun to give them a call.

“Tomorrow you are going to make one call to the bullpen,” Crochet said. “Maybe two,” the manager responded.

But the 26-year-old lefty was adamant. One pitching change, with Aroldis Chapman closing things out, was all it would take for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees in Game 1 of the best-of-three AL Wild Card Series.

So, naturally, that’s exactly what happened. Crochet dominated the best offense in baseball across 7 2/3 innings. He allowed one run, four hits, no walks, and struck out 11 before he was finally pulled after 117 pitches, the most he’d ever thrown in the majors. Cora called on Chapman, who secured a four-out save and a 3-1 Boston win. Read the rest of this entry »

Wrigley Field and its patrons are accustomed to day baseball, as the club still honors its once electricity-free history by playing Friday home games in the afternoon rather than at night. And so despite having not hosted playoff baseball since 2020 (and a playoff win since 2017), the scene on Wild Card Tuesday, a day that saw Chicago bathed in gorgeously clear fall light while still enjoying lovely late-summer temperatures, was a familiar one, as the Cubs dispatched the visiting Padres 3-1 in a brisk Game 1. The afternoon’s action was headlined by back-to-back home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly, as well as the perfect 4 2/3 innings worked by the Chicago bullpen.

Much like ABC’s broadcast, both offenses struggled to make sustained noise (was anyone else’s volume constantly fluctuating?) in this game. The teams combined for just 10 total hits, and the Cubs didn’t have a single hit with a runner in scoring position all afternoon. Under the hood, it was the Padres who made more frequent, high-quality contact, even though they managed just four hits. San Diego was responsible for 14 of the game’s 21 hard-hit (95 mph or more off the bat) balls in play, many of which were struck right at Cubs defenders. Read the rest of this entry »