For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

The building of Baltimore’s offense is coming along quite nicely; graduating two arguable no. 1 prospects to the majors in a single season has a curious way of doing that! The O’s should at least be locking up Adley Rutschman as soon as possible and ideally Gunnar Henderson as well. There’s no need to stay on both too long; everyone knows about Rutschman’s awesomeness, and I’ve written near-panegyrics about Henderson already. Similar to Mike Devereaux three (!) decades ago, Cedric Mullins is a borderline star.

The O’s aren’t amazing anywhere else in the lineup, but they are at least adequate, with a couple of exceptions. ZiPS does think the team could use an outfield upgrade, but one can at least understand why the Orioles are waiting to see which of their young outfield prospects takes a big step up, if any. I’m crossing my fingers, because Nomar Mazara was signed to a minor league contract and is lurking in the wings, like a replacement-level Sauron after the fall of Númenor.

Just in case you have only seen the graphic and not the tables below, ZiPS does project Ryan Mountcastle to be an above-average first baseman. What it isn’t crazy about is the backup situation with Mountcastle expected to spend some time at DH. Lewin Díaz is far from a ZiPS fave, but it sees him as quite a bit superior to Ryan O’Hearn, whose acquisition never made much sense to me given his poor track record.

I’m not going to grump about the O’s being quiet here, nor am I a particular fan of the Adam Frazier signing, since I’m going to complain elsewhere in a minute. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 1006

In the first show of 2023, we welcome back a beat writer friend to talk Cardinals before introducing a new series on the podcast.

• At the top of the program, David Laurila is joined by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (and The Best Podcast in Baseball), who last appeared on episode 903. The duo discuss whether Nolan Arenado deserves the title of the best all-around player in the National League, while contemplating if Paul Goldschmidt may have claim as the best hitter in the circuit. David and Derrick also talk about players on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot like Bobby Abreu and Gary Sheffield, and how Derrick has been listening to FanGraphs Audio in recent weeks for insight while preparing his own ballot. [4:34]
• In the second half, Ben Clemens debuts his new series FanGraphs Backstories. Ben will be interviewing FanGraphs staff to discuss how they came to the site and what their favorite baseball memories are, and senior writer Jay Jaffe is first up. Jay shares how he never would have imagined he’d end up at FanGraphs after his early days at Baseball Prospectus, what his time at Sports Illustrated was like, and how truly unforgettable Nolan Ryan was to a young fan. [43:32]

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @dhhiggins on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 1 hour 9 minute play time.)

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When I wrote up the Cubs’ signing of Drew Smyly, I reflected on the… let’s call it uninspiring state of the rest of the roster. Plenty of solid players, little star power, little upside to speak of. For a putative big-market team with (as of the Smyly signing) a payroll almost $20 million under the luxury tax threshold, that’s an easy enough problem to solve early in the offseason. Less so now, when most of the quality free agents have already found employment for 2023. So at the end of the Smyly post, I made a joke: “Could they convince Cubs fans that Eric Hosmer is Anthony Rizzo with a beard and thicker eyebrows?”

Good news, everyone: There’s a new Rizzo in town, and his eyebrows are magnificent.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported Wednesday afternoon that the Cubs had, in fact, agreed to terms with Hosmer. Years ago, the 33-year-old first baseman was the first marquee signing of what became the current Padres’ run of contention, but on August 2 of last year, he was deemed surplus to requirements. As San Diego completed the Juan Soto–Josh Bell blockbuster, the Friars shipped Hosmer to Boston, and retained almost all of the $13 million a year left on his contract for the privilege of doing so. Hosmer, who will make that amount in each of the next three seasons, will only cost the Cubs the league minimum, Rogers reports. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Jacoby Ellsbury spent just 11 seasons — and not even a full 11 — in the majors and somehow managed to earn the enmity of the fan bases of both the Red Sox and Yankees, the only two teams for which he played. At his best, he was a speedy center fielder with some pop — a first-round pick and an All-Star, not to mention the first known Native American of Navajo descent to play in the majors. He led the AL in stolen bases three times, played a key role on two World Series winners, and netted a staggering seven-year, $153 million contract when he hit free agency.

Yet Ellsbury had a difficult time staying healthy and in the lineup. He missed nearly all of 2010 and half of ’12, the two campaigns on either side of his lone All-Star season, then averaged 130 games over the first four years of his Yankees deal before falling off the map. He rarely spoke to the media, which fed into a perception that he was detached or even apathetic, particularly when he made slow progress rehabilitating his injuries away from his teams, both of which happened to play in media-saturated cities. “Ellsbury is the inscrutable star,” wrote the Boston Globe’s Christopher L. Gasper in 2015. “We will never know the real Jacoby Ellsbury. He will never let us in. It’s not personal. It’s just his personality.”

“Though the quiet, amicable Ellsbury wasn’t loathed in the Yankees’ clubhouse, nor was he beloved, he never gave off the vibe that he burned to win,” wrote the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff in 2019. That comment came after Ellsbury spent all of 2018 and ’19 on the injured list, then was released by the Yankees with a year remaining on his contract — and just before the Yankees filed a grievance in an attempt to recoup some of his remaining salary, claiming that he had used an outside facility without their permission to rehab the injuries that kept him off the field. He and the team ultimately reached a confidential settlement, but he never played again; his final major league game was just 19 days after his 34th birthday. Read the rest of this entry »

Our story begins in June of 2019, when the Cubs took a chance on a still-unsigned Craig Kimbrel. What happened next can only be described as a disaster. Kimbrel gave up a preposterous number of home runs, almost single-handedly causing the Cubs to miss the playoffs. He didn’t show any signs of improvement the following season, and his once lustrous career looked just about over, seemingly bringing the Cubs’ three-year, $43 million investment down with him.

Then, a miracle: In the first half of 2021, Kimbrel returned to form. He trimmed the walks and home runs, and co-authored a no-hitter in the process. The Cubs traded him to the White Sox at the deadline, after which he became one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball. Kimbrel ended the year with a respectable 2.26 ERA, but consider how that’s split: a 0.49 ERA with the Cubs, a 5.09 ERA with the White Sox. That offseason, the Dodgers traded for Kimbrel, hunting for upside as they usually do. And despite the controversy surrounding his usage, Kimbrel finished the year with pedestrian numbers. He wasn’t a complete mess, but he wasn’t great, either.

All this brings us to the Phillies, who’ve signed the now 34-year-old closer to a one-year deal worth $10 million. I don’t know if there’s really such a thing as a “safe” reliever. What I do know is that Kimbrel is decidedly not one. His whole career post-Boston has been a series of ups and downs, the latter more frequent than the former. But given how shallow the market for relief pitching is this offseason, it seemed inevitable that someone would take a flier on him. Kimbrel, for better or worse, has become the Phillies’ problem to solve. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2021 ALCS feels like it happened far more than 15 months ago. After coming within two wins of their fifth World Series berth in the 21st century, the Red Sox dropped 14 wins off their 2021 total to finish in last place in ’22, albeit in the only division in baseball with four teams over .500. The offensive production was okay, the rotation and bullpen proved unreliable, the defense was at times humiliating, and injuries underscored a lack of sufficient depth in a number of areas. Come November, key contributors including Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, and J.D. Martinez hit free agency, leaving Boston with a handful of needs just to stay level in 2023. And though the organization insisted that a Bogaerts extension was its top priority of the offseason, Boston instead watched as the Padres swooped in and inked him to a jaw-dropping 11-year, $280 million deal, leaving the Red Sox with only a fourth-round compensation pick to show for their efforts.

The offseason hasn’t been a total loss. On Wednesday, Carlos Baerga (yes, really) broke the news that the club had signed Rafael Devers to the largest and longest contract in Red Sox history, extending the 26-year-old for $331 million over 11 years. The agreement is a big change of direction for a team that failed to retain either Mookie Betts or Bogaerts, and also a bit of a salvation for a winter that up until last night had seemed to bring more bad news than good.

In terms of bringing on new players to help lift the team back to the playoffs in the immediate future, Boston’s biggest addition this offseason so far is Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida on a surprisingly lucrative five-year deal worth $105 million. Beyond him, the Red Sox made some smaller additions on short, low-cost deals for veterans. They aimed to revamp the bullpen with the additions of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodríguez, and brought in Justin Turner as a right-handed corner infield bat and DH. Most recently, they added much-needed depth to the starting rotation by signing 36-year-old Corey Kluber on a one-year, $10 million contract with an $11 million club option for 2024. Read the rest of this entry »

The ongoing conversation as to whether a hitter can control where they hit the ball has always confused me. As a hitter, you tailor your swing for a specific batted ball profile and come to an understanding of the types of pitches you can handle and the types you cannot. Within that context, your swing might be malleable enough to produce different types of hard contact, but if it isn’t, then you have a plan for where adjustments can be made. From that perspective, a hitter has every bit of control over where they’re going to hit the ball, even it’s more of a long-term endeavor.

On the other hand, there is the dilemma of hitting what you get, and from pitcher to pitcher, that will vary. Each pitcher has a different plan of attack, whether it’s in the pitches themselves, command of specific areas of the zone, arm slot, etc. Most hitters have limitations, and it’s the job of the pitcher to pitch to those limitations. A hitter can have a specific set of strengths that can’t be bent much at all, but then there are hitters who can change their strengths, or more specifically their batted profile, to cater to where they are playing.

In any specific matchup, it might be hard to execute on that plan. For example, we often think about situational hitting and moving runners over or trying to hit a sacrifice fly. That is difficult to do if you don’t get the pitch to do it or don’t have the motor skills to control your body with a changing set of pitch speeds and locations. But when zooming out and looking at batted ball profile, some hitters can change with time. One example of that is Andrew Benintendi. Read the rest of this entry »

Mason Auer made some of the biggest strides in the Tampa Bay Rays system in 2022. Unranked going into his first full professional season, the 21-year-old Joplin, Missouri native not only slashed .290/.372/.487 with 15 home runs between Low-A Charleston and High-A Bowling Green, he legged out 12 triples and swiped 48 bases. Moreover, he impressed on defense. A fifth-round pick in 2021 out of San Jacinto College, Auer is rated the best defensive outfielder, and as having the best outfield arm, among Rays prospects.

Auer discussed his path to pro ball and the skill set that has allowed him to emerge as a promising prospect at the end of last season.

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David Laurila: You were a late-round pick out of high school in 2019 but opted to attend a junior college rather than sign with the Chicago Cubs. What went into that decision?

Mason Auer: “There were talks earlier in the draft, but it wasn’t the money I wanted. Then they picked me in the 39th round. They called and said that there was maybe going to be some more money opening up if they didn’t get a few guys signed, so there was some serious talk about me signing, but that didn’t happen. I mean, it was still a hard decision. Ultimately, I knew that I wanted to keep working hard and go higher in [an upcoming] draft.” Read the rest of this entry »

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The nice thing about the Brewers is that when you look at their depth chart, they’re not truly awful anywhere. That’s easier said than done; the worst Brewers generally project better than even the worst Astros or Dodgers. This is a very solidly built team that has a pretty high floor, probably higher than a year ago when we gathered for this exercise. What they’re missing on the offense is just a bit of pizzaz. I think we’re at the point where we have to accept that Christian Yelich is Just a Guy, which leaves the Brewers sorely missing a superstar bat. Everyone is at least OK and some are pretty good, but that big bat (or lack thereof) is what separates the Brewers from teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Braves, and maybe the Mets when we look at the upcoming preseason projections.

If you glance at the depth chart, you might think that it’s Garrett Mitchell who ZiPS is big on, but it’s actually Sal Frelick, who ZiPS sees as having more upside. ZiPS thinks his contact skills will play in the majors fairly quickly, his long-term upside in terms of batting average is quite high, and he has just enough power to make him really interesting. ZiPS isn’t quite as excited about Brice Turang, but does seem him as being at least a passable starter at second, though a downgrade from Kolten Wong. Read the rest of this entry »

“Extend Devers!” they shouted from the streets and the rooftops and the churches and the public houses and the decks of fishing boats and the parking lot of the local Dunkin’ Donuts. “Extend Devers!” they cried for years, as Mookie Betts and Christian Vázquez were traded and Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, and J.D. Martinez left in free agency.

Surely this last stalwart of Boston baseball would not be allowed, encouraged even, to complete his career elsewhere. Rafael Devers is coming off the best offensive season of his career. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball; he’d be the best homegrown player the Red Sox had produced in a generation, had the Red Sox not also produced Betts.

And he’s staying put. News broke Wednesday night that the Red Sox and Devers have agreed to an 11-year, $331 million contract extension that will keep the color of his socks unchanged through the 2033 season. This deal supersedes the one-year, $17.5 million arbitration-avoiding settlement announced the day before. Your pleas have been heard, your prayers answered, your supplications fulfilled. Devers has been extended. Hallelujah. Read the rest of this entry »