Pitches are hard to classify, and the interactions between them are even more fraught. Mix up a slider and a cutter, and you’ll make the aggregates look all — wait, I started too specific. Let’s back up. Baseball is a game played between two teams, each of whom take turns trying to hit a ball thrown by the other team using a bat. The object of the game is to advance safely — wait, now this is too general. Let’s see if we can hit a happy medium.
Keegan Thompson throws a lot of pitches. Depending on how you count them — and boy, will we get into how you count them in this article, don’t worry — he throws as many as six different pitches, all with distinct properties in one way or another. Need a grounder? Keegan has a pitch for that. Strikeout? Sure thing. Want to beat a lefty, or induce a pop up, or regulate local power plants? Thompson can do the first two of those, if he picks the right pitch for the right situation.
This year, it looks like that previous paragraph is only partly hyperbole. In his 2021 major league debut, Thompson mainly worked out of the bullpen and had mixed success. He struck out an average number of batters but also ran a walk rate of nearly 13%. He went into 2022 without a clear role on the team — we projected him for a few starts and plenty of bullpen work — but with a pressing need for improvement on the command front. Read the rest of this entry »
The Learning and Developing a Pitch series is back for another season, and we’re once again hearing from pitchers on a notable weapon in their arsenal. Today’s installment features St. Louis Cardinals rookie left-hander Zack Thompson on his big-bending curveball.
Drafted 19th overall in 2019 out of the University of Kentucky, the 24-year-old Thompson made his major league debut on June 3, and he’s gone on to log a 3.31 ERA and a 4.05 FIP over 16-and-a-third innings. Working primarily out of the bullpen, he’s allowed 13 hits, issued five free passes, and fanned 13 batters. No. 9 on our newly-released St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospect list, Thompson has thrown his arguably-best-in-the-system curveball 32.8% of the time.
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Zack Thompson: “Growing up, my dad was always protective of me throwing breaking balls, so I didn’t start throwing one until I was a junior in high school. That’s when we began messing around with a curveball. We started out duct-taping two tennis balls together — my high school pitching coach, Jason Dudley, came up with the idea — and I just kind of flipped those to get the shape. It’s actually a lot easier to get feedback off of that. That’s kind of how it got started for me, and I ran with it from there.
“As I got older, I obviously started refining it more. The shape has essentially stayed the same, although I did have to cut down a little bit on the movement. That happened in college. Honestly, it was just too big. It was also too slow. Cutting down on the movement, my command got better, and the pitch also got a little bit sharper. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the St. Louis Cardinals. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
This week, we talk to a reporter covering the St. Louis Cardinals before meeting the author of a book about the unique Cleveland team that won it all in 1948.
In the first half, David Laurila welcomes Katie Woo, beat writer covering the Cardinals for The Athletic. The pair begin by discussing Woo’s favorite baseball memories generally as well as a few that have come from covering the St. Louis club so far, including the team’s 17-game win streak in 2021 and Miles Mikolas’ recent near-no-hitter. Woo also describes the experience of not only witnessing history, but sharing it with others. We also get insight into some players’ behavior during what has been a fun season, including Mikolas’ brunch opinions, Adam Wainwright’s “day-after-pitching old man walks,” and Albert Pujols leaning into a mentorship role. [3:27]
After that, Jay Jaffe welcomes Luke Epplin, author of Our Team: The Epic Story of Four Men and the World Series that Changed Baseball. Jay recently read the book, which is about Larry Doby, Bill Veeck, Bob Feller, and Satchel Paige, and their World Series championship together. Veeck was known for his front office antics, Feller was a national sensation, and Paige was a walking legend, but all eyes were on Doby as he broke the American League color barrier in 1947. Epplin shares how Doby differed from the other stars on the team, how varied his relationships with some teammates were, and how his experience differed from that of Jackie Robinson. [28:53]
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The Yankees and Mets have the best records in their respective leagues, but both teams took their lumps in the past week when the Astros came to town. Houston even threw a combined no-hitter at Yankee Stadium last Saturday while splitting a four-game series, halting the Yankees’ streak of seven straight series wins dating back to the end of May, then held the Mets to a grand total of one run in their two-game sweep. Yet the Astros didn’t escape from New York unscathed, placing Michael Brantley on the injured list due to right shoulder discomfort and shuddering as left fielder Yordan Alvarez and shortstop Jeremy Peña left Wednesday’s game after colliding in the outfield.
Alvarez and Brantley have split the left field and designated hitter duties pretty evenly this season; with the latter sidelined, the former got the call on Wednesday afternoon. In the eighth inning, Peña and Alvarez converged towards a shallow fly ball off the bat of Dominic Smith, with the shortstop making an over-the-shoulder grab but running into the much larger left fielder (Alvarez’s listed five-inch, 23-pound advantage seems conservative). Peña’s left arm hit Alvarez’s face, while Alvarez’s right arm hit Peña’s face. Both players got tangled up, went down hard, and stayed down for a few minutes while the Astros’ training staff tended to them.
Both players remained responsive and wanted to stay in the game but were pulled, with Alvarez, who missed all but two games in the 2020 season due to a torn patellar tendon, carted off the field; Peña walked off under his own power. Both players were evaluated for concussions, with Peña known to have additionally suffered a laceration in his mouth. Chas McCormick took over in left field for the remainder of the game while Mauricio Dubón assumed shortstop duties. Read the rest of this entry »
On Monday night, the Orioles beat the Mariners, turning an early 7–0 lead into a 9–2 win. In the annals of history, a last-place team beating a fourth-place team in a midseason game won’t exactly be one that old baseball historians recount in future documentaries. But it did cause the O’s to cross a symbolic threshold, guaranteeing that they’d have their first winning calendar month since 2017 (counting a 2–1 March 2019 would be a scurrilous case of loopholery). That’s not exactly cause to break out a Melchizedek of the bubbly stuff, but it’s progress for a team whose rebuilding efforts seemed to be lacking that characteristic.
One thing that bedeviled the Orioles was how little of a boost they received at the start of the rebuilding process. Mike Elias may have been hired after the 2018 season to oversee the reconstruction, but it was the old brain trust who got the ball rolling with major trades, dealing away Manny Machado, Zack Britton, Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Schoop, and Darren O’Day and receiving 15 players in return. Until this season, it looked like the only one that would make any impact on the team’s future would be Dillon Tate, picked up from the Yankees in the Britton trade, who has made his home as a mid-tier reliever. You can make an argument that the best minor leaguer involved in an Orioles trade during the first year of the rebuild was a player who was traded from Charm City, not acquired, when the O’s sent minor league veteran Mike Yastrzemski to the Giants.
The lost 2020 minor league season was problematic for everyone on the planet, but in a pure baseball context, I’ve argued that it was especially so for a Baltimore team flooded with Triple-A tweener pitchers and not enough places to play them. Fast-forward to our second season of relative normalcy, and you start to see a real foundation start to come together. We were generally bullish around here about Baltimore’s farm system coming into the season; my colleagues Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein rated the team very highly, and ZiPS had the team with the best prospect in baseball both at catcher and on the mound. ZiPS is even more positive about the team’s future now as most of the top prospects have improved their stock, some massively, rather than see it slide. Let’s run down some of the projection changes since the start of the season. Read the rest of this entry »
In the wake of Freddie Freeman’s starring role in the Braves’ championship run, the sequence of events that landed him in a Dodgers uniform was swift and shocking. Three months later, the 32-year-old first baseman still appears to be searching for closure, but for all the drama and the concerns about where his loyalties lie, he’s remained exceptionally productive even while the Dodgers’ offense has cooled off.
Freeman spent 15 seasons in the Braves’ organization, 11 as their regular first baseman (five times an All-Star, once an MVP), and last fall helped them win their first World Series since 1995. While most of the industry assumed he and the Braves would find a way to remain together once he reached free agency, on March 14 the team pulled off a blockbuster to acquire Oakland’s Matt Olson, abruptly closing the door on the Freeman era and underscoring that by quickly agreeing to an an eight-year, $168 million extension with the ex-Athletic. The suddenly jilted Freeman agreed to a six-year, $162 million deal with the Dodgers on March 16, returning him to his native California via the team that faced his Braves in the NLCS in each of the past two seasons. For as celebratory as the occasion should have been, in his introductory press conference Freeman described himself as “blindsided” by the Olson trade, adding, “I think every emotion came across. I was hurt. It’s really hard to put into words still.”
“I thought I was going to spend my whole career there, but ultimately sometimes plans change,” he said.
It didn’t take long for Freeman and the Braves to cross paths again. The two teams squared off for a three-game series in Los Angeles starting on April 18, with the first baseman punctuating the reunion by homering in the first and third games of the series and going 4-for-11 as the Dodgers took two of three. Not until last weekend did the two teams meet in Atlanta, providing the Braves with the opportunity to present the former face of the franchise with his World Series ring. Ahead of the ceremony on Friday, a teary-eyed Freeman said in his press conference, “I don’t even know how I’m going to get through this weekend,” and had to pause several times to collect himself when discussing his time with the Braves. After the team paid tribute to him, and manager Brian Snitker presented him with his ring, Freeman teared up again while addressing the Atlanta crowd:
It was, perhaps, a bit much for the Dodgers to stomach. In discussing the Freeman tribute with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Clayton Kershaw hinted at his teammates’ impatience when he said, “It was very cool (to see Freeman’s reception Friday night)… He’s obviously been a big contributor for our team. And I hope we’re not second fiddle. It’s a pretty special team over here, too. I think whenever he gets comfortable over here, he’ll really enjoy it.”
Freeman didn’t homer during the series but he he did survive the weekend, going 4-for-12 with three walks and an extra-innings RBI double in Sunday’s rubber match as the Dodgers again took two out of three. Read the rest of this entry »
You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.
I’m touching up prospect lists using the same complex-based clustering as usual, incorporating notes from my in-person looks, sourced data, and the opinions of pro scouts. Up is the group of teams based in Phoenix’s East Valley, with a focus on the Cubs largely due to the depth of their system, making them the team most likely to be motivated to part with prospects between now and the trade deadline. Players whose Future Value grade changed have an “Up” or “Down” arrow in the “Trend” column on The Board.
Jonah Bride and Jordan Diaz move into the 40+ FV tier on the strength of their bat-to-ball skills. Bride, who recently made his big league debut and is currently on the IL, is a recent (part-time) catching convert who would be stuffed in the 45 FV tier if his ball-blocking and receiving had progressed more quickly and I felt more confident that he could catch often. It’s still possible that he could turn into a role player with this sort of special versatility if his defense behind the plate continues to improve, but because he can hit, Bride is at least going to be a solid part-time infielder, with third base his most natural position.
The long-term athletic projection concerns that have been a part of the 21-year-old Diaz’s profile for the duration of his young career continue to apply, and it counterweights the fact that he’s performing so well (.293/.342/.537, a 121 wRC+ as of Tuesday) as a college-aged hitter at Double-A. But Midland isn’t exactly hitter-friendly, and his feel for contact is freaky enough to value him as more than just a corner bench player.
Mason Miller (scap strain) hasn’t pitched all year after sitting upper-90s with a plus slider during late-2021 looks in Mesa. Neither has titanic 23-year-old righty Jorge Juan, due to a multitude of issues. In addition to elbow treatment, he has had setbacks unrelated to the original injury while rehabbing. He was DFA’d and re-signed to a minor league deal after being a bold, surprising 40-man add in the offseason.
A-ball righties Blake Beers (plus slider, late-bloomer traits, a great day three draft find) and Yehizon Sanchez (lanky, above-average arm strength and curveball) have been added to the A’s prospect list, and their full scouting reports are available over on The Board. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s been an eventful couple of weeks for Jesse Winker. On the heels of an exceptional but injury-shortened campaign with the Reds and then a mid-March trade to the Mariners, he hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations, yet earlier this month, the team signed him to an extension that will carry him to free agency. On Sunday, Winker found himself at the center of the season’s biggest brawl, a spectacle that produced some unexpected payoffs as well as a boatload of suspensions, including a seven-gamer for the 29-year-old left fielder.
The atmosphere on Sunday in Anaheim was already tense in the wake of Mariners reliever Erik Swanson sailing a 95-mph fastball too close to the head of Mike Trout — who last week in Seattle homered five times in a five-game series, with four of the homers decisive — in the ninth inning of Saturday night’s game. Trout was understandably upset, though Swanson claimed he was merely trying to work up and in to a weak spot in the three-time MVP’s strike zone. The Angels, who lost after Trout was subsequently intentionally walked and then Shohei Ohtani retired, weren’t amused; as the epic breakdown from Jomboy Media showed, they spent a lot of time glaring and squawking as the Mariners celebrated their victory.
On Sunday, things escalated quickly. Angels starter Andrew Wantz’s fifth pitch of the day, a 93-mph fastball, whizzed behind the head of Mariners rookie Julio Rodríguez, prompting a warning from home plate umpire John Bacon. Winker came to the plate to lead off the second inning and was hit in his right hip by a 91-mph fastball. After jawing with catcher Max Stassi, gesturing toward Wantz and stepping out in front of home plate, he headed toward the Angels’ dugout, where he was met by a rather large contingent. His teammates quickly joined him, and a full-on scrum ensued, with Winker and teammate J.P. Crawford among those throwing punches.
Wantz, incidentally, was a last-minute replacement for scheduled starter Jose Suarez and was making his first major league start after 32 relief appearances dating back to last year. The Mariners later said that they believed the switch was made with the intention of Wantz acting as an enforcer, and that the 26-year-old righty should have been ejected after nearly hitting Rodríguez, but in his postgame comments, Wantz denied any intent with regards either to that pitch or the one that hit Winker. Winker, for his part, felt that if Wantz had been ejected for hitting him, none of the fighting would have occurred, and that Angels manager Phil Nevin and the injured Anthony Rendon (seen hitting Winker in the face with his left — non-injured — hand) instigated the brawl from the dugout. Read the rest of this entry »
Things haven’t quite gone to plan in San Francisco this year. That’s not to say that the Giants have been bad, or even that they’ve been disappointing exactly. At 39–33, they’re squarely in the playoff hunt, and if you go by our odds, they’re more likely to make the postseason today than they were before the season. But after a 107-win 2021, “in the playoff hunt” doesn’t sound nearly as enticing. The same is true for their individual performers. It’s hard to be impressed by a nice season when seemingly everyone on the team had a career year last year.
Here’s an example of what I mean. Logan Webb has been pretty darn good so far this year. In 15 starts, he’s compiled a 3.04 ERA, which nearly matches his 3.03 FIP. That’s roughly a match for his breakout 2021 season, which sounds great, but the resounding roar around the Giants’ unstoppable player development engine over the past two years makes Webb’s success feel almost pedestrian.
It’s not, though. Pitchers with ERAs near 3 don’t grow on trees. Webb is one of the best 30 starters in baseball; that should speak for itself. Since the start of 2021, he’s 12th among pitchers in WAR, 18th in ERA, and fifth in FIP. He’s 32nd in K-BB%, which doesn’t sound quite as impressive until you consider the fact that he gets so many grounders. No starter has allowed fewer home runs per inning, and only human cheat codeFramber Valdez has a higher groundball rate. Read the rest of this entry »
