Archive for Teams

Noah Syndergaard Tore His UCL, and It Sucks

Baseball news is coming in drips and drabs these days, which makes sense — we’ve all got bigger things to deal with at the moment than contract extensions and teams with unsettled rotations. Unfortunately, that means that when there is baseball news, it’s likely to be bad, and yesterday was no exception: per Jeff Passan, Noah Syndergaard has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow.

Regardless of when or if the season starts, this is obviously terrible news for the Mets. The NL East is nasty and brutish, and the 2020 season, should it happen, will be short. Every win is — well, baseball is never a matter of life and death, and that’s never been more clear than in recent weeks. But every win is monumentally important. Over a full season, replacing Syndergaard’s 4.6 WAR projection with Michael Wacha’s 0.6 WAR projection would be a tough blow, and that’s before considering which minor leaguer will be picking up Wacha’s innings.

Those four wins hurt; over the full year, they drop the Mets from roughly even with Atlanta and Washington to roughly even with the Phillies, turning the division into a two-tiered race. In fact, now that the Mets are without Thor’s services, they’d prefer a shorter season, because they’re decidedly underdogs at this point. As Dan Szymborski recently illustrated, a half-season gives underdogs a fighting chance.

Whatever your feelings towards the Mets, this is a disastrous stroke of bad luck. The team is built to win in 2020; Marcus Stroman will hit free agency after this year, Syndergaard will follow him the year after, and many of the team’s veterans are most useful in 2020. Robinson Canó isn’t getting any younger, Rick Porcello and Wacha are only in the fold this season, and Jacob deGrom is only invulnerable to decline until he isn’t. Without a stacked farm system, this might be the team’s best chance for another World Series berth in the near future. Read the rest of this entry »


David Bednar, Brandon Brennan, and Tony Gonsolin on Their Changes and Splits

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives and careers. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers —David Bednar, Brandon Brennan, and Tony Gonsolin — on how they learned and developed their changeups/splitters.

———

David Bednar, San Diego Padres

“I never really had a great feel for a changeup. In 2017, after I first got drafted and was in instructs, I was kind of toying around with it when one of our pitching coordinators pushed me towards Hideo Nomo, who was one of our special assistants and helping out. The coordinator got me throwing in front of Hideo. He gave me a few pointers, and kind of switched up my grip in a way that worked better for me.

David Bednar’s splitter grip.

“The grip is a slight variation [from Nomo’s splitter]. My two fingers are kind of offset on the seams, so that I have something to pull down on. There’s a little bit of slider action to it at times, but for the most part it’s either straight down, or has a little bit of cut. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 38 Prospects: Seattle Mariners

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Seattle Mariners. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Mariners Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Julio Rodriguez 19.2 A+ RF 2022 60
2 Jarred Kelenic 20.7 AA CF 2021 60
3 Logan Gilbert 22.9 AA RHP 2021 55
4 Evan White 23.9 AAA 1B 2020 50
5 George Kirby 22.1 A- RHP 2022 45+
6 Noelvi Marte 18.4 R SS 2023 45+
7 Justus Sheffield 23.9 MLB LHP 2020 45
8 Kyle Lewis 24.7 MLB RF 2020 45
9 Cal Raleigh 23.3 AA C 2021 45
10 Justin Dunn 24.5 MLB RHP 2020 45
11 Sam Delaplane 25.0 AAA RHP 2021 40+
12 Brandon Williamson 22.0 A- LHP 2023 40+
13 Juan Then 20.1 A RHP 2021 40+
14 Wyatt Mills 25.2 AA RHP 2020 40+
15 Jake Fraley 24.8 MLB LF 2020 40
16 Isaiah Campbell 22.6 R RHP 2023 40
17 Braden Bishop 26.6 MLB CF 2020 40
18 Jonatan Clase 17.8 R CF 2024 40
19 Gerson Bautista 24.8 MLB RHP 2020 40
20 Joey Gerber 22.9 AA RHP 2021 40
21 Elvis Alvarado 21.1 A RHP 2021 40
22 Carter Bins 21.9 A- C 2023 40
23 Ljay Newsome 23.4 AAA RHP 2021 40
24 Josias De Los Santos 20.7 A RHP 2022 40
25 Devin Sweet 23.5 A+ RHP 2022 35+
26 Yohan Ramirez 24.9 AA RHP 2020 35+
27 Jorge Benitez 20.8 A- LHP 2022 35+
28 Damon Casetta-Stubbs 20.7 A+ RHP 2023 35+
29 Aaron Fletcher 24.1 AA LHP 2022 35+
30 Raymond Kerr 25.5 AAA LHP 2021 35+
31 Milkar Perez 18.4 R 3B 2023 35+
32 Kristian Cardozo 17.4 R RHP 2025 35+
33 Luis Liberato 24.3 AAA CF 2020 35+
34 Austin Shenton 22.2 A 3B 2022 35+
35 Sam Carlson 21.3 R RHP 2022 35+
36 Levi Stoudt 22.3 R RHP 2023 35+
37 Ty Adcock 23.1 R RHP 2022 35+
38 Jake Haberer 25.1 AAA RHP 2020 35+
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60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 60/65 25/60 40/40 45/50 55/55

Like most Millenials, I share account passwords with friends and family to create a Megazord collection of streaming services while only actually paying for one or two. One of these shared logins is for a DAZN account I procured in order to enjoy the platform’s boxing archive, only to discover it had several classic MLB games as well. Among these is footage of Miguel Cabrera’s big league debut, which I put on one fall night as I prepared to cut up Fall League video of Julio Rodriguez taken earlier in the day. As I split my attention between a fresh-faced Miggy and a young Julio, I noticed a rare similarity: front foot variation. Some hitters are capable of altering their stride direction based on pitch location, perhaps best exemplified by a famous GIF of Cabrera hitting home runs on pitches in six very different parts of the strike zone. In that GIF you can faintly make out how Cabrera’s footwork varies on several of those swings, and though he doesn’t do it consistently yet, Julio shows glimpses of this same seemingly innate aptitude, especially his ability to open up, clear his hips, and wreck pitches on the inner half.

He can be fooled by sweeping breaking balls that make him want to open up and pull the ball, and he’ll swing at inside sliders that finish away from him, but other than those consistent issues, Rodriguez is a very mature hitter, with a mature personality and body to match. He excelled despite Seattle’s very aggressive full-season assignment, a move I was skeptical of, and had an impressive Fall League as an 18-year-old. He’s already a 40 runner (I had him timed in the 4.4s throughout Fall League), which means he is ticketed for right field rather than center, but the bat is real. I have plus hit and power projection here and I know scouts who have a 70 on the bat, though his approach and the way his head was flying out during some of his AFL at-bats stopped me from going that heavy with my hit tool grade. I think he’s going to come up quickly and be an All-Star outfielder and the affable face of the franchise.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Waukesha West HS (WI) (NYM)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 196 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 60/60 45/55 55/50 45/45 60/60

It was an injury-laden year for Kelenic (a wrist and ankle during the summer), who was supposed to pick up Fall League reps until those was delayed by wisdom tooth extraction and then ultimately squashed by back tightness. Despite that, and especially in spite of the wrist injury, the beefcake Wisconsinite hit .291/.364/.540 with 23 dingers and 20 steals across three levels, and reached Double-A as a young 20-year-old. Kelenic is absolutely jacked but it hasn’t detracted from his twitch, nor has his size borrowed from his range in center field, which is suitable if unspectacular for the position.

The carrying tool here is the bat, which has been the case since Kelenic was 15. Like most elite prospects he’s been one of the — if not the — best hitters his age from the time scouts began to see him, and Kelenic hit elite prep pitching all throughout high school. He is short to the ball with power, and can just turn his hands over and catch heaters up, in, or both, which bodes well for him against a pitching population that is working up there with increasing frequency. The .540 SLG% from 2019 is a bit above what’s realistic going forward, largely because there’s just no more room for mass on the body. As is the case with most hitters evaluated in this stratosphere, reports of Kelenic’s competitiveness and work ethic are strong, and have been since he was in high school. In fact, one scout on the amateur side thought he was too intense at times, sort of in the Jimmy Butler realm of teammate interaction, but I haven’t heard anything like that lately. He’s much more stick than glove, but Kelenic looks like an All-Star center fielder who’s rapidly approaching Seattle.

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Stetson (SEA)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 50/55 45/50 50/60 91-94 / 96

Last year I wrote about the possibility that Gilbert would experience a velo rebound in pro ball because I thought he had been overtaxed at Stetson. He was sitting 92-96 as a rising sophomore on the Cape, but often sat 90-94, and sometimes 88-91, throughout his starts the following spring. Last year he was again up to 96 but sat 91-94, about the halfway mark between his peak and nadir as an amateur. Considering how readily pitchers lose velo in pro ball, that’s still a win for Seattle. While all of Gilbert’s secondary pitches are average and flash above, I think his command will enable them to play above their raw grades, which, combined with what the innings count could be because of his frame and how efficiently he works, will still make him an above-average WAR generating starter.

50 FV Prospects

4. Evan White, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Kentucky (SEA)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 55/55 45/50 60/55 60/70 55/55

White’s pre-draft skillset was tough for some teams to wrangle. All of the window dressing — plus-plus first base defense, plus speed, a backwards hit/throw profile — was nice but ultimately, some teams saw a first baseman without sufficient power. After they drafted him, the Mariners made subtle changes to his lower half, drawing his front knee back toward his rear hip more than he did at Kentucky, and taking a longer stride back toward the pitcher. White is more often finishing with a flexed front leg now, which has helped him go down and lift balls in the bottom part of the strike zone by adjusting his lower half instead of his hands. The power output improved and is supported by the measurable underlying data. Now that he’s signed a pre-debut deal, it’s very likely that White breaks camp with the big club, and he projects as a solid everyday first baseman.

45+ FV Prospects

5. George Kirby, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Elon (SEA)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 40/45 50/55 45/55 55/70 91-96 / 97

If you tally up Kirby’s three years at Elon, his summer on the Cape, and his brief pro debut, he has a 307-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 276 innings since 2017. That’s a 4% walk rate, and in Kirby’s most recent calendar year of innings, it has been a microscopic 1.3%. While his pre-draft velocity was strong (touching 97, often 93-95 early, 91-94 late in starts), his secondary stuff was very average. His slider and curveball (the latter is better) ran together a bit, and his changeup had inconsistent finish. But often, elite command of what is a 55-grade pitch in a vacuum leads to elite results (see: Bieber, Shane), and I think that sort of secondary pitch effectiveness is possible for Kirby.

One of Seattle’s stated post-draft goals for the right-hander was to make him stronger. In 2020 spring bullpens, Kirby looked noticeably thicker and stronger, and he is indeed throwing harder, touching 99 mph several times in Peoria side sessions. Logan Gilbert threw very hard in a similar setting the year before, and though his in-season velo band was beneath his pre-season bullpens, he was still above the prior year’s range. The difference is the obvious change in Kirby’s body. I expect something similar to Gilbert’s trajectory here (and for Juan Then, who appears later on this list and was also throwing much harder in the spring before baseball shut down). Even with fairly vanilla secondary stuff, mid-90s heat and Kirby’s potential for elite command gives him a mid-rotation ceiling.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/60 25/60 60/55 40/50 60/60

When it comes to both the broad, back-of-the-house view of his amateur profile and his promotion/big league time horizon, Marte’s career has mimicked Julio Rodriguez’s so far. He was a bigger, more physical signee than is typical for the international market, the sort most teams would not hesitate to debut in domestic rookie ball. And like Rodriguez, the Mariners allowed Marte to spend his first pro summer dominating competition that simply didn’t challenge him (the average DSL fastball velo last year was 88 mph), which led to a .309/.371/.511 line. Marte had a chance to earn an aggressive assignment with a great 2020 spring (probably not Low-A, but perhaps a summer Northwest League placement), putting him on a relative fast track for a teenage hitter, though like the rest of baseball, that possibility in now on hold.

From an individual tools and skills perspective, Marte’s peers are elite high school players. As an amateur, there was uncertainty surrounding his hands, actions, and general ability to stay on the infield, but pro looks have been more favorable, backed by enough arm strength to hide potential future range deficiencies. My previous research into shortstop size has shown that most teenage prospects gain about 30 pounds between when they’re 18 and 21 years old, which puts Marte’s baseline body projection in the Willy Adames/Trevor Story realm, or about 210 pounds. So long as his hands have indeed improved, that’s a pretty favorable comp for his body/range-based fit at short. It means there’s Goldilocks Zone power/defensive spectrum potential here, as Marte already has 50-grade raw power at age 18 and will probably have at least a full grade more at maturity. His TrackMan power metrics (they’re over on The Board) are in the 40/45 range right now because Marte’s swing elements are not always well-timed. They are, however, very athletic. The big leg kick (which Marte is balanced enough to utilize), the little bit of bat wrap to create some loop and lift, and the ability to move the barrel around the zone are all encouraging swing elements, but we really don’t know a lot about Marte’s bat-to-ball skills right now because he just hasn’t faced good pitching yet. There’s clearly huge ceiling here and I have Marte in the same FV tier Zac Veen, my highest-ranked prep amateur right now.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Tullahoma HS (TN) (CLE)
Age 23.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 50/55 40/45 89-94 / 96

The roller coaster prospectdom of Justus Sheffield may finally be reaching its terminus. Several repertoire changes, two trades (and the scrutiny that comes with that), fluctuations in his walk rate, some injuries (most notably shoulder stiffness in 2018), and mixed performance at the upper levels have caused a constant need for re-evaluation. The latest of these many developments is a logical shift, given Sheffield’s sinker-friendly arm slot, to a two-seam look on the fastball. Sheffield’s 2020 spring velo was parked in the 89-93 range, but now his fastball has more tailing/sinking action, which dovetails very nicely with the shape of his slider. Sheffield will throw a shorter, curt slider in the zone for strikes (one scout source who saw Sheff this spring thought it might be a separate cutter) and a longer, nastier, bat-missing version that finishes out of the strike zone. This pitch is plus, and was used heavily in Sheffield’s electric spring outings, especially as a back foot out-pitch to righties.

Sheffield’s changeup is also good, but his arm side command of all his pitches is not, so whether he’ll be able to consistently set up the change with well-located fastballs is in doubt. So, too, is Sheffield’s ability to eat innings like a traditional starter because of his hot and cold strike throwing. Some teams just have him projected in the bullpen because of how erratic the strikes have been historically. He’s in the same FV tier as Red Sox righty Bryan Mata, who also has sinker-oriented stuff and significant relief risk.

8. Kyle Lewis, RF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mercer (SEA)
Age 24.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 70/70 55/60 50/45 45/50 60/60

“He’s still a 24-year-old who struck out 29% of the time at Double-A.” This was the general industry response to early drafts I circulated of my Top 100, which had Lewis toward the back of the 50 FV tier where players like Jose Siri and Monte Harrison have been when they’ve made the list. Lewis and his knee (he tore his ACL in 2016) finally looked healthy last year (his swing had more movement, a bigger leg kick, and he seemed to be twisting and bending it with more comfort), and his underlying power data, which I’ll get to shortly, is spectacular. But in some ways what Lewis’ health helped reinforce was skepticism regarding his hit tool. There are folks in baseball who think that on a binary level, Lewis will not hit enough to have a meaningful career. I think he’ll be a high-variance big leaguer, grinding through some frustrating, 1-WAR seasons while he clubs 30-plus bombs in others, similar to Jorge Soler, Domingo Santana, and countless other tantalizing toolsheds who strike out a lot.

As for that underlying power data I promised you, Lewis’ is very encouraging. If you’ve been reading this year’s lists, you know the Southern League offensive environment was very unkind to hitters last season. A source not with Seattle told me that based on his TrackMan/Statcast data, Lewis’ Expected SLG%, was about .100 higher than his actual output, with an xSLG up around .500. He averaged 92 mph off the bat last year and hit 53% of balls in play at 95 mph or above (a 70 on the scale); another source whose team tracked Hard Outs among 2019 minor leaguers (balls in play at 95 mph or up that resulted in outs) told me Lewis made more than 40 of them last year, which was in the top 10 in all the minors. On balance, I think Lewis is a 45, a 1.5 WAR player on average during his years of team control. But he has plus-plus, impact power and could get hot and make some All-Star teams during that span, while other years will be quite lean.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Florida State (SEA)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 55/55 40/50 40/40 45/50 45/45

Teams that had been tracking Raleigh’s framing ability since college have been optimistic about him profiling at catcher for longer than most individual scouts, who see a bigger-bodied guy with mobility issues. Last year, as many orgs have done, Mariners catchers began working on one knee, a move that tends to be favorable for framing but not for throwing, a skill of dwindling importance (for now). Perhaps not coincidentally (or perhaps because we were wrong about Raleigh’s arm grade last year, when we 55’ed it), reports on Raleigh’s arm strength are worse than they were a year ago, though it appears he’s a viable, long-term catcher, if an unspectacular one. If that’s true, then Raleigh has a great chance to be an average everyday backstop thanks to his power and a sentient approach that enables him to hit for it in games and reach base at an above-average clip.

10. Justin Dunn, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Boston College (NYM)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/55 50/55 45/50 90-93 / 95

Scouts and execs see Dunn settling into one of two outcomes: either he ends up living in the mid-90s as a power reliever, or he sits, as he did in 2019, in the low-90s as an innings-eating No. 4/5 starter. Brendan Gawlowski’s spring look at Dunn, during which the right-hander sat 92-94 over three innings, is perhaps indicative of the former since Dunn rarely worked with his changeup at a time when most starters are working heavily with their tertiary pitch in preparation for the season. Still, I remain somewhat bullish on Dunn’s changeup development. He’s had stretches in the past where it’s been a plus pitch and it’s arguably the best long-term fit with his fastball’s tailing/sinking shape. What I’m less optimistic about is Dunn’s starter stamina. He looked gassed late last year and while into the mid-90s early, was not throwing as hard in subsequent innings this spring. Ideally his fastball lives in at least the 93-96 mph range out of the bullpen and Dunn can be a dynamic, three-pitch reliever. I have his future fastball grade projected as if that’s the outcome.

40+ FV Prospects

11. Sam Delaplane, RHP
Drafted: 23th Round, 2017 from Eastern Michigan (SEA)
Age 25.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 70/70 40/45 92-95 / 97

Delaplane has power, vertical action stuff that I think is going to play in a high-leverage relief role. He creates a nearly perfect vertical arm slot by striding wide open, starting on the third base side of the rubber but landing in the middle of the mound. It helps give his fastball plus-plus carry and ride. Delaplane also has a power, Brad Lidge-style slider with late, downward movement. He has less raw arm strength than the Nick Andersons of the world, but the stuff works in the same way, and I think Delaplane will be a reliever of rare quality.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from TCU (SEA)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 55/60 45/50 40/45 92-95 / 97

It’s not as if Williamson didn’t show plus stuff at TCU; he would be parked at 92-93 in the first inning or two, and flash two plus breaking balls. He did, however, struggle to hold it deep into starts. By the fourth, he was often living in the 88-91 range. After the draft, in one- and two-inning outings, he sat 92-95 with a plus curveball (and fewer, if any, sliders). I’m skeptical that Williamson can hold 92-95 as a starter for a whole season because of how his stuff has waned in the past. He also suffered a severe hip injury while in junior college (he tore both labrums dunking a basketball and needed surgery) that might impact his ability to do it. I buy that the velo will be there in short stints and that both breaking balls, assuming the slider returns, will be plus. As such, I have Williamson projected as a three-pitch power reliever.

13. Juan Then, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 40/50 40/50 92-94 / 96

Then (pronounced “Ten”) was originally signed by Seattle, then was sent to New York when the Mariners were swapping low-level prospects for 40-man depth at the end of their last competitive window, before he returned in the Edwin Encarnación deal.

He had a velocity spike over the offseason and, after sitting 91-95 and topping at 96 last year, was up to 99 mph in the bullpen this spring before baseball ceased operations due to the pandemic. Similar to the way Vanderbilt and Kyle Wright found an extra gear for his fastball before the draft, a lower, more naturally comfortable arm slot for Then is part of what seems to have brought this about. Last year, his well-located sliders were plus and the rest of his repertoire below, but he’s lanky and loose, and quite smooth, so that stuff has been at least somewhat projectable. How the lower slot impacts the secondaries and command we won’t know until after Then has taken the new delivery for a spin, but even if things go awry, the velo bump everyone’s been hoping for has seemingly arrived, so a late-inning reliever outcome is now in play.

14. Wyatt Mills, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Gonzaga (SEA)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 45/50 50/55 92-94 / 95

At the very least, Mills profiles as a good, sidearm “look” reliever who can enter the middle of the game and present hitters with a visual conundrum because of his sidearm slot. His combo of repertoire depth and command are both rare for a reliever, and I think he has a chance to have some peak years like Luke Gregerson, Steve Cishek, Brad Ziegler, or other low slot relievers who closed in recent seasons have had. The statistical case for it — 30% strikeout rate, 54% groundball rate — is strong and Mills has better surface-level stuff than most sidearm relievers do.

40 FV Prospects

15. Jake Fraley, LF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from LSU (TBR)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/50 45/45 35/40 55/55 50/55 40/40

Fraley is officially in tweenersville. He plays a fine center field but he’s not such a black hole that it makes up for his lack of power on offense and enables him to profile. Perhaps plus corner defense with a slightly better hit tool than I’ve projected means Fraley can be a platoon 45 FV, but I think enough puzzle pieces with power are floating around that he ends up a Ben Gamel style, luxury bench outfielder.

16. Isaiah Campbell, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Arkansas (SEA)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/50 40/45 40/50 90-93 / 96

Campbell was granted a medical redshirt in 2017 because of surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. His stuff was not totally back in 2018 and the Angels tried to buy low on the then redshirt sophomore in the 28th round. He returned to school, his stuff bounced back, and Campbell went in the 2019 second round. He was ridden pretty hard at Arkansas, and the Mariners chose not to run him out after the draft. We don’t yet know what changes might be made to his repertoire, which was full of average stuff in college. He projects as a No. 4/5 starter.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Washington (SEA)
Age 26.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 50/50 40/40 70/70 70/70 55/55

Bishop remains strangely snakebitten by injury, the latest and most bizarre of which was a 2019 lacerated spleen. He’s still a glove-first, bench outfield prospect.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 17.8 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 70/70 45/60 45/45

Clase packs quite a punch for someone his size, and his swing is very short but also geared for some lift. He has a relatively projectionless build, but part of that is because he’s added a bunch of muscle since signing and is now built like a little tank. His speed gives him a shot to be a special center field defender, while the contact feel and seemingly mature idea of the strike zone might weaponize the speed on the bases. There’s a right tail, everyday center field outcome in here.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/50 45/45 35/35 92-97 / 99

This is another of several older relief prospects in the system, one whose report you’re probably familiar with by now. Bautista was part of Seattle’s return in the Díaz/Canó trade; the Mets acquired him from Boston for Addison Reed at the 2017 trade deadline. He’s an arm strength-dependent reliever (96-99 mph) who’ll likely lose list eligibility as soon as we have baseball again. He’s erratic, but as long as he has crude control he’ll bully hitters with his fastball and 84-87 mph slider in a middle relief role.

20. Joey Gerber, RHP
Drafted: 8th Round, 2018 from Illinois (SEA)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 40/45 40/40 92-95 / 96

Other than the odd, chicken wing arm action Gerber uses to unfurl his stuff, he has a pretty standard mid-90s heat/power slider relief profile. The fastball gets on hitters more quickly than they expect, and it comes in at a flat angle that hitters also seem to struggle with. He might be up in September.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (WSN)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 183 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/70 40/50 40/50 92-95 / 98

A converted outfielder, Alvarado was up to 100 during extended and sat in the mid-90s with bat-missing movement throughout the rest of the summer. He’ll flash an occasionally nasty slider but it’s not consistent right now, nor is his strike-throwing, but of course he hasn’t been pitching for all that long. He’s a 2020 40-man add and will have to develop pretty quickly to merit a 40-man spot this winter, but Seattle has had success developing pitching lately and this guy has big ceiling if things click. Based on his build and athleticism, they might.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2019 from Fresno State (SEA)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/55 25/45 45/45 40/50 60/60

Bins has plus bat speed and a great build for a catcher. His swing is grooved and he needs defensive polish, but he at least has power/arm carrying tools and a good chance to be a whiff-prone backup.

23. Ljay Newsome, RHP
Drafted: 26th Round, 2015 from Chopticon HS (MD) (SEA)
Age 23.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/45 55/60 55/60 89-92 / 94

Like Gerber, Newsome has a short, weird arm action that seems to bug hitters and create abnormally strong results on a fastball that is, in most respects, barely average. He does have a plus changeup and throws an obnoxious rate of strikes. To this point, Newsome’s smoke and mirrors have worked as a starter up through Hi-A. The velo bump he worked for two offseasons ago has made a difference, and he projects as a swingman type now.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 45/55 90-95 / 97

The Mariners pushed De Los Santos to full-season ball last year because his secondary stuff desparately needed reps and they trusted him to scrap through starts early on even though it wasn’t ready. He succeeded and now looks like a fastball/cutter/slider relief prospect.

35+ FV Prospects

25. Devin Sweet, RHP
Drafted: 0 Round, 2018 from North Carolina Central (SEA)
Age 23.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/45 55/60 50/55 90-93 / 95

Sweet was a 2018 undrafted free agent senior sign who had a 2019 breakout. He began the year in the Low-A bullpen (50 K, 9 BB in 35 innings), then in June was moved to the rotation and thrived for 12 starts. He made a few late-August starts at Hi-A, and was good there, too. Sweet has fastball command, fastball ride, and a plus changeup. He’s a little light on velocity, only sitting 90-93, but he’s garnered swings and misses at that velocity at the top of the strike zone so far. His changeup has bat-eluding sink and fade, and is used against righty hitters. The breaking ball is just okay, but he can land it for strikes to start counts.

It’s a 40-man look, to be sure. Perhaps the velo would tick up in the bullpen in an interesting way (all our Sweet info comes from folks who’ve seen him start), but for now he projects in the fifth or sixth starter area.

26. Yohan Ramirez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 60/60 20/35 94-97 / 99

Ramirez’s career got off to a late start (he didn’t begin playing pro ball until he was 21) and he was also a little slow to develop, languishing in A-ball for several years. His stuff really started to pop in 2018, and last season he showed bat-missing, multi-inning stuff — 92-97, up to 99, two plus breaking balls. He walked 74 hitters in just over 100 innings last year, which needs to be better if he’s going to stick.

27. Jorge Benitez, LHP
Drafted: 9th Round, 2017 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (SEA)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/55 40/50 35/45 88-93 / 94

Rejoice! Those who saw Benitez as an amateur and hoped he’d enjoy a pro velo bump have been proven correct, as the 20-year-old lefty was sitting 89-92 and up to 94 last year. He has big curveball spin rates but the pitch is pretty easy to identify out of his hand, and he barely throws it. It’ll be interesting to see if the dev group tries to make the curveball more playable or if they explore other out-getting avenues now that viable velo appears to be on the way.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2018 from Kings Way HS (WA) (SEA)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 55/60 40/50 89-93 / 95

The fastball/frame projection here is just okay, but Casetta-Stubbs has two excellent breaking balls and an advanced understanding of how to deploy them together to thwart hitters, similar to how Drew Pomeranz attacks guys. He’s a black sheep relief prospect.

Drafted: 14th Round, 2018 from Houston (WSN)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 50/50 35/35 90-93 / 94

Fletcher’s big hip turn helps him hide the ball pretty well, his slider has sufficient sweep despite low spin rates, and his changeup and two-seamer pair well together. He’d be a 40 FV relief prospect if his command were a shade better.

30. Raymond Kerr, LHP
(SEA)
Age 25.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/65 40/45 50/60 40/50 30/40 94-98 / 100

Kerr can dunk a basketball, he has superlative weight room exploits, and he has rare lefty velo. His splitter flashes plus and the Mariners have worked with his slider enough to create viable sweep on the pitch. The strike-throwing and secondary consistency are present issues, but Kerr has come so far, so fast (he was sitting in the low-90s early last spring) that it’s fair to project on that stuff, even though he’s in his mid-20s.

31. Milkar Perez, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Nicaragua (SEA)
Age 18.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 173 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/45 40/30 40/50 50/55

Perez has more of a frame than his measurables suggest, he has advanced feel for the strike zone and for contact, and he might grow into enough power to profile as a well-rounded everyday third baseman. But the frame isn’t so overtly projectable as to make it a likelihood.

32. Kristian Cardozo, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Venezuela (SEA)
Age 17.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/50 45/50 40/50 30/50 null / 92

Cardozo signed for just shy of $600,000 last July. He doesn’t have the typical July 2 prospect’s physical projection, but his delivery is loose and repeatable. He’s been up to 92 with feel for his breaking ball and change.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 50/50 35/40 60/60 50/50 60/60

He’s 24 but I still think Liberato’s physical tools and relatively solid track record of performance merit inclusion in this FV tier. He runs well, has a great frame, and made substantive improvements to his contact rates with a 2018 swing change. I think there’s still a chance he contributes in some way.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2019 from Florida International (SEA)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 55/55 30/50 30/30 40/45 50/50

Shenton had a loud Cape, then regressed athletically the following spring and looked more like a future first baseman. He has pop, but needs to hit a ton to profile at either corner spot.

35. Sam Carlson, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Burnsville HS (MN) (SEA)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 50/60 40/55 89-93 / 94

We’re still collectively waiting for Carlson to pitch coming off of Tommy John. At his prep peak, he was into the mid-90s with a good changeup and more strikes than is typical for such a hard-throwing, cold-weather prospect.

36. Levi Stoudt, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2019 from Lehigh (SEA)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 40/45 50/60 40/45 90-92 / 94

Stoudt is a relief prospect with a plus changeup who went lower in the 2019 draft than his talent suggested because the industry knew he needed TJ after signing.

37. Ty Adcock, RHP
Drafted: 8th Round, 2019 from Elon (SEA)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 213 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 45/50 40/50 45/50 30/35 94-97 / 100

Adcock is a catcher conversion arm who emerged a year after he was first draft-eligible. He’s an upper-90s power relief prospect who didn’t throw after the draft.

38. Jake Haberer, RHP
Drafted: 0 Round, 2018 from Eastern Illinois (SEA)
Age 25.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Sits/Tops
65/65 45/50 94-97 / 99

An undrafted free agent who was signed out of Indy ball with the notion that he’d eventually be an in-office contributor, Haberer cruised through A-Ball and now is in the upper levels at age 24 and throwing very hard. He was up to 99 last year and has a shot to be a bullpen contributor.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Arm Strength Relief Sorts
Yeury Tatiz, RHP
Dayeison Arias, RHP
Natanael Garabitos, LHP
Taylor Guilbeau, LHP

Tatiz almost made the main section of the list. He’s 19 and up to 95 with an average slider. Arias has performed as a pro, striking out 160 hitters in 116 pro frames. He’s consistently been in the 92-96 range as a lower-minors closer. He has an odd, swinging gate delivery that swivels about an axis created by a stiff front leg. If that’s not a long-term issue, then he’s a middle relief up/down type. Garabitos was up to 97 at age 18 but has little idea where it’s going right now. Guilbeau is in the mid-90s (it doesn’t play that way, though) with a good changeup and is on the big league roster fringe.

Bench Bats
Donnie Walton, SS
Dom Thompson-Williams, OF
Connor Hoover, INF

There’s not much upside from this group. Walton is a versatile 26th man possibility. DTW is now 24 and the late-blooming possibilities are gone. He’s a smaller-framed guy who is a fifth outfielder at best. Hoover was old for his level last year but his swing has some verve and he might be a bat-first infielder.

Older Depth Arms
Penn Murfee, RHP
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP
Kyle Wilcox, RHP
Darin Gillies, RHP
Scott Boches, RHP
Nick Duron, RHP
Collin Kober, RHP

This group is pretty self-explanatory. They’ll sit at the upper-levels and provide viable innings if a rash of injury occurs. Murfee and Misiewicz are pitchability arms. Murfee is the current minor leaguer most likely to be a GM based on what people in and out of the org say about his aptitude for learning and implantation. Wilcox and Gillies both throw pretty hard (up to 96/97) and performed at upper levels last year. Boches is a spin/ride mid-90s relief arm, Duron has more arm strength and is up to 97 but with fewer underlying traits to bolster it, and Kober is a heavy sinker submariner who has missed bats.

Young Sleeper Arms
Blake Townsend, LHP
Tim Elliott, RHP
Danny Chang, LHP

Townsend is a strong-bodied teenage Aussie up to 93 with a shot for an above-average slurve. Elliott has a plus curveball and fringe other pieces. Chang struck out a lot of AZL hitters with a spin-efficient fastball in the mid-80s but needs to get much stronger to develop viable big league velo.

System Overview

It’s clear the developmental changes on the pitching side have already begun to produce results in the form of the many older, 40-man-worthy arms on this list. The same is not yet true for the hitters. 50% of prospects on The Board are hitters, but they only comprise a third of this org’s list, and it’s an even lower ratio if we include the Others of Note. Several of the bats on the list are very good, though, and have responded well to aggressive assignments.

That’s not to say this org doesn’t still have some odd, developmental quirks. Out-of-place, early-season assignments for players like Deivy Florido (Triple-A, stuff dipped throughout the year and he didn’t make the cut here), Damon Casetta-Stubbs (Hi-A), Cesar Izturis Jr. (Triple-A, 2018), and Connor Hoover (Double-A), or mid-season, single-game promotions for Ray Kerr, Ljay Newsome and Colin Kober (all to Triple-A) look, to me, like ways of toying with opponents’ pro scouting models by indicating to the model that those players were promoted. The org’s explanation for my tinfoil hat theory is that the Mariners reward pitchers for hitting measurable goals and would like to get them acclimated to the idea of going up a level to pitch on short notice and then heading back down, both of which are pretty reasonable explanations.


Let’s Manage the Brewers!

There’s no baseball right now. Heck, there’s no anything right now; Joe Buck is offering to do play-by-play of domestic chores:

But if you’re in the mood for some baseball, you’re in luck. Brad Johnson of RotoGraphs has organized a 30-person Out Of The Park league with human managers for every team. Partially, some of the fun will be providing updates and talking about team strategy. Candidly, we’re all looking for something to write about, and describing the machinations of our very own team is too good to pass up.

But we can do more. I’m managing the Milwaukee Brewers. Rather than simply tell readers what my team is doing, I’m opening it up to the crowd. We, as a FanGraphs community, will be running the Brewers. Maybe it will work well. Maybe it’ll be a disaster. Either way, though, I think it’ll be a lot of fun.

I’m going to lay out a few ground rules. You’re not getting to vote on whether we should trade Christian Yelich for a bag of nickels. We shouldn’t. There’s no point in taking a vote on that. And we’re not going to legislate the overall direction of the team — we, the Brewers front office, are going to operate under budget constraints while attempting to make the playoffs in a competitive NL Central. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Mariners Prospect Jarred Kelenic Embraces The Art of Hitting

Jarred Kelenic is No. 11 on our 2020 Top 100 Prospects list, and his bat is the main reason why. As Eric Longenhagen wrote in the 20-year-old outfielder’s scouting profile, “[H]e’s been one of the — if not the — best hitters his age from the time scouts began to see him.” The New York Mets selected Kelenic sixth overall in the 2018 draft out of a Waukesha, Wisconsin high school, then shipped him to the Seattle Mariners in the seven-player mega-deal headlined by Robinson Cano.

Kelenic possesses marquee potential. In 500 plate appearances last year, split between three levels, he slashed a healthy .291/.364/.540, with 23 home runs. Moreover, Kelenic spent the final three weeks in Double-A, a heady accomplishment for a prep-draftee playing in his first full professional season.

I caught up to the fast-tracking youngster two weekends ago as he was taking part in big-league camp. Our conversation began with one of my favorite ice-breaker questions: Do you view hitting as more of an art, or more of a science?

“I think it’s an art,” answered Kellenic. “It’s something that’s developed over time. Kind of like a painting. It takes time to get all of the detail. Hitting is the same way.”

Kelenic credits much of his development to his father, Tom, and to a former minor-league catcher who throws him batting practice back home in Wisconsin. The latter owns STIKS Academy and Sports Training, and according to Kelenic, Sean Smith knows his swing just as well as he does.

Longenhagen called Kelenic’s left-handed stroke “short to the ball,” and the player himself had much the same description when asked to describe his M.O. at the dish. Read the rest of this entry »


Chris Sale Will Have Tommy John Surgery After All

A day after the Boston Globe reported that Chris Sale had resumed throwing following a shutdown, and two weeks after he was diagnosed with a flexor tendon strain but no new damage to his ulnar collateral ligament, the Red Sox have announced that he’ll undergo Tommy John surgery. The going-on-31-year-old lefty joins the Yankees’ Luis Severino on the short list of star pitchers who will miss all of the 2020 season — however long it may be — following UCL reconstruction, and the Astros’ Justin Verlander among players whose decisions to undergo surgery make more sense in light of the delayed opening to the season.

As I detailed three weeks ago, Sale made just 25 starts amid an uneven season last year; he was fantastic in May and June (2.78 ERA, 1.98 FIP in 71.1 innings) but bad or worse on either side of that stretch before being shut down on August 13 due to elbow inflammation. Though he set career worsts in ERA (4.40) and home run rate (1.47 per nine) — both more than double his 2018 rates — his strikeout rate still ranked second in the majors among pitchers with at least 140 innings, his 29.6% K-BB% fourth, and his 75 FIP- 14th. His 3.6 WAR, despite being his lowest mark since 2011, was more than respectable. That said, Statcast data showed that he had the largest year-to-year dropoff in four-seam fastball velocity of any pitcher from 2018 to ’19, 1.8 mph (from 95.2 mph to 93.4), and the second-largest increase in exit velocity, 3.4 mph (from 84.7 to 87.0).

While Sale paid a visit to Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion last August, he avoided surgery, though he did receive a platelet-rich plasma injection. Although many within the industry have been predicting that the wiry lefty would someday blow out his elbow given his violent delivery — you can find armchair pitching coaches calling him “a ticking time bomb” as far back as 2012, if not earlier — there was no public indication at the time that his injection or his injury were related to his ulnar collateral ligament. This spring, the Red Sox continued to give reassurances that his elbow was fine, even as Sale began spring training behind schedule due to a bout of pneumonia. Read the rest of this entry »


Justin Dunn, Justin Grimm, and Tyler Mahle on the Cultivation of Their Curveballs

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Justin Dunn, Justin Grimm, and Tyler Mahle — on how they learned and developed their curveballs.

———

Justin Dunn, Seattle Mariners

“I had a curveball before I had my slider. I learned it from my dad at 12 years old. He used to play in men’s leagues, and while he never played at a real high level, he loves the game. He’s a student of the game.

“Essentially, I take a two-seam grip and put my thumb underneath, finger through the lace, pressure to the ball.When I was younger, he would tell me to just throw it like a football, to never turn my wrist down. It would be big, loopy, and slow. As I got older, I started to throw harder and understand finger dexterity and about pulling the ball down. I learned that I could pull a little bit more with my middle finger and get it a little tighter, and sharper. Read the rest of this entry »


A Conversation With Former Red Sox and Angels Outfielder Rick Miller

Rick Miller had a solid, albeit unremarkable, big league career. A left-handed hitting center fielder known mostly for his speed and defense — he was awarded a Gold Glove in 1978 — Miller slashed .269/346/.350 in 4,440 plate appearances from 1971-1985. He spent his first seven seasons with the Red Sox, the next three with the California Angels, then returned to Boston for five more.

Miller entered pro ball on the heels of a Big Ten batting title. In his junior season with the Michigan State Spartans, the Grand Rapid native hit .429, prompting the Red Sox to take him in the second round of the 1969 draft. Little more than two years later — this despite a swing adjustment that may have been ill-advised — he was in the big leagues to stay.

Miller discussed the early and late portions of his career when the Red Sox held an alumni game at Fenway Park two summers ago.

———

David Laurila: What do you remember about the start of your career?

Rick Miller: “I was drafted in 1969 out of Michigan State. There were a lot of contact hitters at the time, and I got some bad advice when I first came up. This was from one of the people in the Red Sox organization. I’m not going to name him, but when I signed, I went to Pittsfield [Massachusetts], which was Double-A. They watched me take batting practice. I was told, ‘You’ll never be able to hit that way in the big leagues” — the way I was hitting.”

Laurila: What were you doing that they didn’t like?

Miller: “Well, I don’t know. But wherever it was, they didn’t like the way I was swinging. And I was hitting pretty well at the time. But I listened. I was young, naive, and stupid. I didn’t know any better. I’d hit that way on my life, and in my opinion you don’t tell somebody, ‘You can’t hit that way,’ until they get a chance to show if they can do it.

“So I changed. And I never hit that well in the minor leagues. I played two-plus years in the minors, and never did a lot with the bat. My defense is pretty much what got me to the big leagues. Once I was there, I did improve my hitting. It was a longer process, because I used to hit a certain way. I think I would have been successful had I… of course, I wasn’t a big guy. I didn’t hit a lot of home runs.”

Laurila: I recall you having success when you first came up [in September 1971]. Read the rest of this entry »


A Dubious Distinction for Yuli Gurriel

The worst thing you can do when you put a ball in play is hit a popup. That’s the worst thing usually, at least: right now, the worst thing you can do is be playing baseball at all, because you plus the opposing team makes 10 people, you jerk. But most times, it’s hitting a popup.

You’ve seen the reasoning for this before, but I’ll quickly lay it out again. When you hit a popup, you don’t reach base. Per Baseball Savant, balls hit with a launch angle of 50 degrees or higher produced a wOBA of .016 in 2019. Given that an out is worth 0 and league-average wOBA is .324, that’s pretty close to being an automatic out. Want it in a triple slash line? If you hit the ball at a 50 degree angle or higher, you bat .015/.015/.022. That’s ugly.

There’s good news, however. Want to avoid popping up and slamming your bat to the ground in disgust? There’s a simple solution: avoid swinging at high pitches. I’m no physicist, but the relationship between high pitches and popups seems straightforward. Your bat is likely to contact the ball from below, there’s some angle-of-incidence angle-of-reflection magic, and bam, Eric Hosmer is camping under the ball. Either that or you get some Alex Bregman magic:

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 56 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Editor’s Note: Esteban Quiroz was added to this list after he was received by the Rays as the Player To Be Named later in the Tommy Pham trade.

Rays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Wander Franco 19.1 A+ SS 2021 80
2 Brendan McKay 24.3 MLB LHP 2020 60
3 Vidal Brujan 22.1 AA 2B 2021 55
4 Josh Lowe 22.1 AA CF 2021 50
5 Brent Honeywell 25.0 AAA RHP 2020 50
6 Xavier Edwards 20.6 A+ 2B 2023 50
7 Randy Arozarena 25.1 MLB CF 2020 50
8 Shane Baz 20.8 A RHP 2022 50
9 Taylor Walls 23.7 AA SS 2021 45
10 Shane McClanahan 22.9 AA LHP 2022 45
11 Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 28.3 MLB LF 2020 45
12 Greg Jones 22.0 A- SS 2022 45
13 Joe Ryan 23.8 AA RHP 2022 45
14 Alejandro Pie 18.1 R SS 2024 45
15 Ronaldo Hernandez 22.4 A+ C 2022 45
16 JJ Goss 19.2 R RHP 2024 45
17 Tyler Frank 23.2 A+ 2B 2021 45
18 Seth Johnson 21.5 R RHP 2023 40+
19 Peter Fairbanks 26.3 MLB RHP 2020 40+
20 Nick Schnell 20.0 A CF 2023 40+
21 Kevin Padlo 23.7 AAA 3B 2020 40+
22 Abiezel Ramirez 20.1 R SS 2022 40+
23 Ford Proctor 23.3 A SS 2022 40
24 Riley O’Brien 25.1 AA RHP 2021 40
25 Moises Gomez 21.6 A+ RF 2022 40
26 Jhon Diaz 17.5 R CF 2025 40
27 Lucius Fox 22.7 AAA SS 2021 40
28 Drew Strotman 23.5 A+ RHP 2021 40
29 John Doxakis 21.6 A- LHP 2022 40
30 Michael Perez 27.6 MLB C 2020 40
31 Anthony Banda 26.6 MLB LHP 2020 40
32 Curtis Mead 19.4 R 2B 2023 40
33 Michael Plassmeyer 23.4 AAA LHP 2022 40
34 Tristan Gray 24.0 AA 1B 2020 40
35 Tanner Dodson 22.9 A+ RHP 2021 40
36 Joel Peguero 22.9 A RHP 2021 40
37 Resly Linares 22.3 A+ LHP 2022 40
38 Brian O’Grady 27.8 MLB CF 2020 35+
39 Esteban Quiroz 28.1 AAA 2B 2020 35+
40 Graeme Stinson 22.6 R LHP 2023 35+
41 Sandy Gaston 18.3 R RHP 2023 35+
42 Jelfry Marte 19.0 R SS 2023 35+
43 Niko Hulsizer 23.1 A+ LF 2022 35+
44 Cal Stevenson 23.5 A+ CF 2021 35+
45 Colby White 21.7 A- RHP 2023 35+
46 Audry Lugo 21.4 A- RHP 2023 35+
47 Neraldo Catalina 19.7 R RHP 2023 35+
48 Aneudy Cortorreal 20.3 R RHP 2023 35+
49 Logan Driscoll 22.4 A- C 2023 35+
50 Victor Munoz 19.2 R RHP 2022 35+
51 Alberto Figuereo 19.9 R 2B 2022 35+
52 Daiveyon Whittle 20.4 A- RHP 2023 35+
53 Michael Mercado 20.9 A- RHP 2022 35+
54 Jayden Murray 22.9 A- RHP 2023 35+
55 Angel Felipe 22.5 R RHP 2022 35+
56 Carlos Garcia 21.3 A+ RHP 2023 35+
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80 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 19.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 80
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
60/80 55/60 45/60 60/60 50/55 60/60

This is the first 80 FV prospect of the Future Value era at FanGraphs, the best prospect on the planet, and the best I’ve evaluated during my tenure here. What does it take to draw such significant expectations? Let’s first examine the statistical case. Franco has played 175 career games, all at levels well above what is typical for a player his age (he doesn’t turn 19 until March). During those games, he’s hit .336/.405/.523 with 71 extra-base hits, 20 steals, and more walks than strikeouts. In fact, across two levels in 2019, Low- and Hi-A, Franco not only walked more than he struck out, but walked about twice as much. He has one of the lowest swinging strike rates in the entire minor leagues, and it’s possible the power hasn’t fully actualized yet because Franco still hits the ball on the ground a lot (48% last year). How about the TrackMan data? Franco’s exit velos and hard hit rate are both above big league average, which, again, is ridiculous for a teenager who’s playing against competition four and a half years older than he is in the Florida State League.

Of course, the visual baseball evaluation is also incredible. Franco had one of the best BP sessions at the Futures Game (his was better than Jo Adell, Nolan Jones, and everyone not named Royce Lewis) and the best infield. His hands are a powder keg, accelerating to the point where he can do huge damage, and he doesn’t need mechanical length to get there. This is true from both sides of the plate; Franco can’t be thwarted by turning him around and forcing him to hit from a weaker side. He might not ever produce big home run totals without a swing change, but it’d be ridiculous to alter this guy’s swing considering how elite his performance has been. A scouting director once told me, “Elite players are elite all the time,” and that has been true of Franco since he was a young teen. He’s been a force of nature offensively, he plays a premium defensive position very well, and my degree of confidence in his ability to do both in perpetuity is high because that’s all Franco has ever done.

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Louisville (TBR)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 212 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 50/55 50/55 55/70 91-95 / 96

McKay was 1.1 innings shy of graduating off of prospect lists entirely this year, which means there is as much hard data on him as it’s possible to have when deciding how to evaluate him before he exits my scope. He was unusually homer-prone during his big league stretch, something that has never been an issue before even with middling velocity, because McKay’s command is so good. I think it’s a small sample blip that will regress over more innings, though I did have folks from analytically-inclined teams suggest that I slide McKay down on my overall rankings when I circulated the list for feedback.

His fastball only sits 90-94 and touches 96, which is pretty average, but McKay keeps it away from the middle of the zone where it can really be hammered and often ties hitters up with it because he locates so well; his swinging strike rate on the heater was close to 17% in the minors, so I think it’ll play. His cutter command is arguably even better, and he peppers the glove side of the plate with it at will. Changeup usage was scarce in his big league sample but I think it will be one of the focal points of his repertoire, perhaps usurping the curveball, which has a stronger visual evaluation than it does if you look at the spin data. It’s a repertoire/command profile similar to a lot of good lefties (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Minor, Cole Hamels), though most of them are more reliant on the cambio than McKay has been to this point. He may not have the rate stats of the other arms in the 60 FV tier, but I expect he’ll make up for all of that with volume because of how efficiently he works.

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 22.1 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/65 45/50 30/45 65/65 55/70 50/50

This is my favorite player in the minors, a top-of-the-scale athlete who is sneaky strong despite his height and one of the most electric, in-the-box rotators in all of the minor leagues. He split 2019 between Hi- and Double-A and his walk rate took a bit of a hit at those levels, but otherwise, his on-paper performance was strong, well above league averages (.277/.346/.389 with 48 bags in 61 attempts, and 28 extra-base hits in 100 games). His exit velo data is not great, but it was instructive to watch Brujan in the Fall League next to several other players with similar statistical and defensive profiles who aren’t nearly as athletic or as physically projectable as he is. There were lots of other narrowly built infielders of similar age who simply don’t have Brujan’s musculature (you can see his lats through his jersey) or explosiveness. I think there’s room for mass even though Brujan is short, and that he’ll continue to harness his hellacious cut, which, based on his contact rates, he already has abnormal control over. I watched Brujan swing so hard that he’d corkscrew himself to the ground, only to pop back up like a Russian folk dancer. There are scouts who think he can play shortstop, but I think the arm is a little light for that and that instead, he’ll be a plus-plus defender at second base or perhaps play a multi-positional, up-the-middle role. You have to bet on him growing into more pop to get there, but I think Brujan’s going to be a star.

50 FV Prospects

4. Josh Lowe, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Pope HS (GA) (TBR)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 40/45 60/60 40/45 60/60

Things may finally be starting to gel for Lowe, who has had tantalizing tools since high school. He was a power/speed prep bat without a clear position, but most of the amateur half of the industry assumed he’d be able to play center field if not shortstop or third base, where he played in high school. He quickly moved to the outfield and has played almost exclusively in center since 2017. He isn’t great there, but most of Lowe’s other abilities have been slow to develop, so it’s possible the feel for the position will come eventually. For instance, Lowe has power but has been strikeout prone since his prep days. But once he started playing pro games and generating data, it became clear that, despite the whiffs, he had a great idea of the strike zone. The raw power didn’t really show up in games until Lowe’s batted ball profile began to shift in 2018. His groundball rates were in the mid-40% range until that year but slowly began shifting downward, then Lowe had a breakout statistical 2019 as a 21-year-old at Double-A.

He’s always going to strike out, but he’s also probably going to keep walking a lot, especially now that the power is a real threat. It’s pretty important that he stay in center field to take some pressure off of the hit tool. If he can do that, he’ll be an everyday player.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Walters State JC (TN) (TBR)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 60/65 55/55 45/50 45/55 92-94 / 97

Honeywell has had a myriad of injury issues over the last couple of years. He had a TJ, then a nerve issue during rehab, then fractured his elbow in the bullpen just after last year’s draft. The sequence of events that has befallen Honeywell is relatively unprecedented, and while he was a 55 or 60 FV arm at peak, his future is now in doubt. And that’s a bummer, because he’s a lot of fun to watch pitch.

A creative sequencer, Honeywell’s deep, unique repertoire is unlike any other pitcher in the minors. Though his fastball touches 98, his stuff is so diverse that he never has to pitch off of it. He can lob his curveball in for strikes, induce weak contact early in counts by throwing a cutter when hitters are sitting fastball, and he’ll double and triple up on the changeup. What you see listed in Honeywell’s tool grades as a splitter is actually a screwball. It wobbles home in the 79-82 mph range, while his true changeup is usually a little harder than that. The screwgie is more than a gimmick and can miss bats, though it’s best in moderation because it’s a little easier to identify out of his hand, and hitters are able to recognize it after seeing it multiple times in the same at-bat.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from North Broward Prep HS (FL) (SDP)
Age 20.6 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 40/40 20/30 80/80 50/55 45/45

The Rays plan to deploy Edwards as a multi-positional catalyst, a speedy, Chone Figgins-style player. His exit velos are arguably concerningly low. But his contact rates and track record of hitting (X was a staple on the travel ball circuit for several years and might have been the most game-ready high schooler in his draft year) combined with his ability to play lots of different positions, including the ones in the middle of the diamond, make him a relatively high-probability big league contributor. Even sources from very analytically-inclined teams thought he deserved strong placement on this list, a sign that exit velo stuff is less meaningful right now than some fear.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (STL)
Age 25.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 45/45 35/40 55/60 60/55 55/55

Kiley and I were sourcing the Cardinals list as the Libby/Arozarena/Martínez deal went down, and everyone we spoke with has Arozarena on either side of the 45/50 FV line. He does have some tweener traits and it’s possible his role in Tampa Bay, where everyone is in some sort of timeshare but is also put in positions where they can succeed, will impact whether or not 50’ing him is the correct call.

His quality of contact is very good, he’s a plus corner outfielder who can pass in center field, and he’s a great baserunner, as well as an intense, high-effort player who pro scouts love watching — Arozarena once turned a routine pop-up into a triple because he sprinted full-tilt out of the box while the infielders miscommunicated.

8. Shane Baz, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/70 55/60 40/50 55/60 40/45 92-96 / 100

It’s highly likely that Baz moves to the bullpen, where his unusually deep pitch mix could enable him to pitch multiple innings, though it’s also possible the pitch mix gets whittled down and he works in single-inning relief. He pitched as a starter during the regular season but was bumping 100 out of the bullpen in the Fall League. The future fastball grade reflects the anticipated move.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Florida State (TBR)
Age 23.7 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 40/40 35/40 50/50 50/55 50/50

All of Walls’ rather vanilla physical skills are made better by his elite baseball feel and instincts, especially on defense. While the amateur side lacked conviction in his defensive fit at shortstop, the pro side thinks Walls’ first step, internal clock, and situational awareness, combined with suitable foot speed, actions, and arm strength, not only make him viable at short, but actually quite good.

Offensively, Walls is a switch-hitter with great feel for the strike zone and for squaring balls all over it. He’s kinda stiff and really doesn’t have much power, instead punching a lot of liner singles over the heads of infielders. It’s not a sexy skillset but it is a great general profile — a switch-hitting shortstop with on base skills — with enough physical tools to compete with big leaguers. He’s a 2020 Pick to Click who will likely be on next year’s top 100 as a major league-ready, everyday player.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from USF (TBR)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 55/60 45/50 40/45 93-97 / 100

Throughout his late high school and early college (which was paused by a Tommy John) careers, McClanahan’s stuff climbed from the mid-80s to the mid-90s. In the first start of his draft year, he hit 100 mph and flashed above average secondary stuff, which put him among the draft’s top prospects right out of the gate. But things started to unravel from there. A finger injury, bad weather, fluctuating stuff, frustrating control, and questions about his maturity all contributed to a draft-day tumble to pick No. 31 and the hometown Rays.

A year later, those concerns seem trite. A more consistent, balanced delivery enabled McClanahan to throw more strikes and he absolutely carved A-ball. He got especially hot over a nine-game stretch at Hi-A, where he walked just eight over 49 innings. I still have McClanahan evaluated as a reliever. These are improvements compared to what McClanahan was doing later in 2018, yes, but I still think the command and third pitch fall short of what’s acceptable for a starter. But I also think the fastball/breaking ball combo fits like a glove in a high-leverage relief role.

(TBR)
Age 28.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 214 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/55 60/60 55/55 30/30 40/40 50/50

The six year window I consider when evaluating prospects warps how I handle older, rookie-eligible players like Tsutsugo. He’ll undoubtedly hit some sort of decline phase during that window, but he’s also someone our readers would like to know about. I have him here purely with the role in mind, which I think is the bigger half of the platoon LF/DH, a 1.5 to 2 WAR sort of player during the life of his deal. Tsutsugo was a .282/.382/.528 career hitter in Japan, averaged 34 homers over his last four years there, and had a 13% career walk rate in NPB. He has all-fields power created by a swing I’ve compared to Eddie Rosario’s. Multiple sources have confirmed to me that Tsutsugo averaged an exit velocity of 92 mph (108 mph max) last year in Japan, which would rank among the top 30 big leaguers, but of course the level and type of pitching he’ll see now is going to be different. Kaz Matsui and Kosuke Fukudome each had comparable peak power numbers before they came over but Matsui didn’t have Tsutsugo’s ball/strike recognition, and Fukudome was a little bit older and didn’t have this kind of physicality.

In addition to regular DH duty, Tsutsugo seems like an obvious platoon partner for Hunter Renfroe in one of the two corner outfield spots. The Rays gave him some time at third base this spring, but he didn’t look great there and he hasn’t played the infield regularly since 2014; the notes I have from pro/international scouts and executives from before he signed indicate that he’s not athletically capable of handling the hot corner. Yandy Díaz isn’t good there either (he used to be, but he’s just too big and stiff now), but still played third situationally, so perhaps Tsutsugo can be hidden there, even if it’s just for a few innings at a time.

12. Greg Jones, SS
Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from UNC Wilmington (TBR)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/55 30/50 70/70 40/45 55/55

Teams loved Jones’ tools coming out of high school, but he was very raw as a hitter, especially for someone as old as he was relative to his high school senior peers. After a strikeout-heavy freshman year in Wilmington, Jones cut his whiff total nearly in half as a draft-eligible sophomore. He also improved enough defensively to keep the shortstop projection alive. It was enough for him to be in teams’ mix in the comp round zip code, and he was drafted 31st overall by the Rays.

A year and a half later, Jones remains the same sort of player. He struggled during Extended, but had a strong summer in the Penn League, a pretty conservative assignment. Jones has everyday outs. Even if he doesn’t stay at short, he’s going to play up the middle, and so long as he’s getting to the power he has a shot to play everyday. I think there’s still-to-come hit tool growth, enough that the in-game power manifests.

13. Joe Ryan, RHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2018 from Cal State Stanislaus (TBR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 45/50 45/45 50/60 90-94 / 96

Ryan dominated Midwest League hitters in April, then was quickly moved to Hi-A Port Charlotte, where he continued to mow through Florida State League hitters, striking out 35% of them during his first dozen appearances. He did most of his damage with the fastball, which is puzzling because Ryan’s heater doesn’t seem remarkable in any way, even in light of the pitch data I’ve sourced. He’ll touch 96, but sits mostly 90-94 with average underlying components like spin, z-break, and extension. Despite that, Ryan is getting a lot of swinging strikes in the zone with his fastball. Like, a lot, a lot. His arm stroke is curt, and the ball just kind of jumps on hitters, so perhaps that’s contributing to its effectiveness, but it’s not such a unique look as to satisfactorily explain this level of dominance.

The supporting cast — a low-70s rainbow curveball, the occasional cutter or changeup — is only okay, so vanilla that Ryan just pumps his fastball in, pitch after pitch. He used it 73% of the time last year. There’s no precedent for that level of usage among big league starters. Based on the way the fastball plays (the whiff rates indicate it’s an elite pitch, but based on how big league hitters dealt with it this spring, I have a 60 on it) and Ryan’s command, I have him in as a strike-throwing No. 4/5 starter.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/60 20/50 60/55 40/50 55/60

Pie, who ranked 17th on our 2018 July 2 Board, now looks like top 100 prospect Oneil Cruz did at the same age; endless limbs on an NBA wing player’s frame, uncommon athleticism and body control for his size, uncapped power projection, and much more intrigue than there is certainty about any aspect of the profile. It’s not even clear whether Pie is going to stay on the infield. He runs well enough that center field is a possibility if his actions don’t improve, and he has the arm to play short or third if they do.

Even if Pie tumbles down the defensive spectrum, it likely means he’s grown into substantial raw power, enough to profile at any position. His current tool grade projections indicate what I think things will look like if his frame develops such that it allows him to stay at shortstop, but I think it’s going to take a long time before Pie’s skillset truly comes into focus.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Colombia (TBR)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 40/50 30/30 40/45 70/70

If you squint and look at Hernandez’s skillset from a certain angle, it looks much like Gary Sánchez‘s did at the same stage. He has big power and breathtaking arm strength, but there are questions about the approach (which might impede the power) and his defensive ability, specifically the receiving. After three straight years of big time slugging performance, Hernandez’s output dipped in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Some of this was due to the hitting environment; some of it was due to more advanced pitchers understanding how to attack him to limit damage. Hernandez’s swing cuts down through the typical hitting zone and his power is out in front when his swing starts to lift, which makes his point of impact of paramount importance to his power production. There are mixed opinions as to whether this is correctable. While what matters for catchers defensively may soon change, the combo of approach and swing issues have caused me to become more tepid on Hernandez’s offensive future. He has everyday tools but needs a good bit of developmental love to get there.

16. JJ Goss, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Cypress Ranch HS (TX) (TBR)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/50 45/55 40/50 91-94 / 96

In a draft demographic filled with wide-shouldered frames and traditional-looking deliveries, Goss stood apart from his 2019 prep pitching peers in many ways. He has a narrow, long-torso’ed frame, a flatter lower half, and a little bit of cross-bodied action to a delivery that resembles Luis Patiño’s from a timing and sequencing standpoint. Goss’ fastball has tough-to-square arm side tail created by his three-quarters arm slot, and its movement pairs well with his fairly advanced changeup, which seemed to evolve into a firm, mid-80s split once he was in pro ball.

He has worked with two breaking balls in the past, both of which reside in the low-80s and have enough depth and movement to be considered future average pitches in a vacuum, but they lack raw spin and were consolidated after he signed. They may play better against righties if Goss’ delivery proves tough for them to parse. There’s some body/delivery relief risk perception throughout the industry — some of which is delivery xenophobia, some of which is injury-related, though I think the mix and command are fine — but otherwise Goss has fourth starter talent.

17. Tyler Frank, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Florida Atlantic (TBR)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/45 30/40 50/50 45/50 45/45

Frank was first seen by most scouts as a utility player on college Team USA the summer before he was draft eligible. The setting in which you scout a player can do wonders, and the Team USA look didn’t give Frank much of a chance to show what he could do. He didn’t stand out much, playing all over the field and making contact, but lacking impact tools. He shined much brighter in the spring for Florida Atlantic, with 13 homers and an OPS just shy of 1.000 while playing a passable shortstop.

Scouts who saw Frank in pro ball after the Rays popped him in the second round see a slightly lesser version of Taylor Walls, another under-tooled Rays middle infielder with lots of feel. Frank is seen as more of a second baseman going forward and his 45 raw power, 50 speed, and 50 defense still aren’t loud, but his ability to hit, take a good at-bat, and have advanced feel for the game give him the look of a potential low-end regular who could move quickly through the minors. He missed almost all of 2019 with a left shoulder strain.

40+ FV Prospects

18. Seth Johnson, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Campbell (TBR)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/60 45/50 40/45 45/55 91-95 / 98

It’s incredible how quickly Johnson became a high-end draft prospect. Originally a junior college infielder, Johnson began dabbling with pitching during his sophomore season at Louisburg College, when he threw just six innings. Just a few months later, during Campbell’s fall practices, his fastball touched the mid-90s and he flashed a plus breaking ball, instantly making him a high-priority look for the following spring. His stock and performance peaked in late-March, then dipped closer to the draft when he failed to get through five or more innings in five of his last eight starts. He was sitting 91-95 in 30-pitch outings after he signed, and his slider spin rate spiked once the Rays got hold of him. The pre-draft dip leaves room for questions about his season-long durability, but Johnson was still so new to pitching that expecting him to hold his stuff for five or more innings all spring would have been silly. Assuming that comes (his is a longer arm action, but Johnson is a plus athlete and I think he can repeat it), he has No. 4 starter ceiling. He’ll likely rely on two distinct breaking balls as his secondary weapons (a mid-80s slider, a mid-70s curve) since the longer arm action isn’t typically friendly for change development.

Drafted: 9th Round, 2015 from Missouri (TEX)
Age 26.3 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
80/80 60/60 35/40 95-98 / 99

Fairbanks has elite, late-inning stuff that arrived after he returned from the second of two Tommy Johns and shifted to the bullpen in 2019, a move that helped enable a fastball bump from the 92-94 range to 95-98, touching 100. That fastball has big carry/rise thanks to its spin rate (nearly 2500 rpm) and spin axis; it backspins due to Fairbanks’ slot, and his slider has vertical, curveball-shaped break but rests in the upper-80s and low-90s. This is an impact relief piece who is ready right now, though age and Fairbanks’ injury history round the FV down a bit.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Roncalli HS (IN) (TBR)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 35/55 60/60 40/50 60/60

Schnell was a cold-weather high school hitter who went bonkers during his senior year, especially during the varsity postseason, which was late in the spring and closer to the draft when high-level scouts were coming in for looks. Based on his physical tools — chiefly, the power and straight-line speed — and body projection, Schnell has big upside. He’s shown opposite field thump, which impresses some scouts though others argue his inside-out contact spray indicates a swing flaw. To possess premium bat speed and face pitching in the 80s but still inside-out home runs suggests that Schnell has been late on subpar stuff, and his deep hand load, which helps create the power, also creates a ton of length back to the ball. It’s still too early to say definitively that this is a problem, in part because Schnell hasn’t played many pro games yet due to injuries, which he has a history of (a broken bone in his right wrist in 2018, minor surgery on his right knee in April of 2019 to correct an ailment he described as stemming from wear and tear). He’s a high-variance corner outfield power projection prospect.

21. Kevin Padlo, 3B
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Murrieta Valley HS (CA) (COL)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 45/50 40/40 45/45 50/50

After undergoing some swing alterations — there have been a few changes to how open Padlo’s stance is and how big his leg kick is — and gutting through a terrible April and May, Padlo became a pull and lift machine for the final few months of the season. It’s a one-note approach that might be pitched around effectively at the big league level, but to this point Padlo has shown to be selective enough to wait for pitches he can yank that way. His slugging performance is up over what’s realistic at the big league level but there is relevant big league power output now. I think Padlo is too heavy-footed to play third base every day but industry opinions are mixed. I think he’s ticketed for a four corner platoon role of some sort, similar to the one Rays fans have seen Yandy Díaz occupy.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 20.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/55 30/45 60/60 40/50 60/60

Two years in the DSL means Ramirez’s 40-man timeline is compressed, and that’s especially true now that the spread of COVID-19 has shortened the 2020 season, Ramirez’s last before being Rule 5 eligible. Based on his physicality (Ramirez is a curvaceous, José Ramírez type scaled up to 5-foot-11) and relatively advanced feel to hit, Abiezel was a candidate to be pushed quickly this year to stress test the bat. Ramirez has a handsy, powerful swing that produces whizzing line drives from the left side of the plate. His arm strength fits on the left side of the infield and gives him a shot to stay at short. Barring a swing change or feel for lift that develops naturally as he matures, this is likely to be more of a doubles-oriented power profile, but the bat-to-ball skills may carry him to an everyday infield role even if there’s no change there.

40 FV Prospects

23. Ford Proctor, SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Rice (TBR)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 40/40 30/40 45/45 50/50 50/50

It’s prudent to be skeptical of Proctor’s 2019 Low-A statline because of his age, and he doesn’t have the overt physical tools easy to scout in a short look, but he has a carrying tool in his lefty stick and has a shot to stick at shortstop. He’s done nothing but hit dating back to his freshman year at Rice — Proctor is a .300/.392/.420 hitter, combined college and pro — and I’m confident he’s a high-contact and OBP middle infielder, which, even without impact power, is still a big league role player.

Drafted: 8th Round, 2017 from Idaho (TBR)
Age 25.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/50 40/50 92-95 / 97

O’Brien’s velocity has climbed each of the last two years and now rests comfortably in the mid-90s, with an extra tick of perceived velo due to extension. He’s a classic small-school late bloomer with a good frame and athletic delivery. O’Brien also has an abnormally firm, sinking, upper-80s changeup, and a power, low-80s curveball, both of which look like impact pitches at times. It’s starter stuff, and perhaps more traditional starter’s control will develop late, much like O’Brien’s stuff has.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (TBR)
Age 21.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 40/55 50/40 45/50 55/55

I’m staying on Gomez despite a) his precipitous 2019 downtick in production and b) his terrifying, swing-happy, corner-only profile. He has nautical mile power and sneaky good plate coverage that’s masked by how often he chases. Despite his maxed frame (he began his pro career as a speedy center field prospect but now has a chonky corner build), Gomez is an athletic swinger who can punish pitches out away from him to center and right-center field, and can also turn on stuff on the inner half and send it skyward. He has heart-of-the-order talent that’s currently at the mercy of an immature approach, so callow that he was passed over in last year’s Rule 5. He’s a high-variance player at the mercy of his own decision-making.

26. Jhon Diaz, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 17.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 55/55 45/50 55/55

The Yankees’ all-in pursuit of Jasson Dominguez enabled the Rays to swoop in and offer Diaz more money than New York could trade for in pool space; Tampa inked him for $1.5 million. Diaz has more present skill than he does physical projection, atypical for the July 2 market. There are teams that considered him a tweener fourth outfield type, but I think he’s just short, not small, and has a bunch of above-average tools and good baseball instincts. His path to an everyday role involves him staying in center field and making a lot of contact. If he falls short at either, then we’re talking about a platoon/fourth outfielder type.

27. Lucius Fox, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Bahamas (SFG)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 40/40 30/30 60/60 45/50 55/55

Somehow, despite his relative lack of power, the most consistent aspect of Fox’s performance has been on the offensive end of things. As reports of the quality of his defense have waxed and waned over the last three years, he’s somehow posted an above-average offensive line for each of the last three affiliates at which he’s spent most of the season. That includes a 104 wRC+ in a depressed 2019 Southern League, where the average hitter’s line was .243/.318/.366. Despite major league-average exit velocities, Fox’s contact quality isn’t great, and he has an OBP-driven offensive profile thanks to his keen eye for the zone.

He’d need to be a plus shortstop defender to profile as a low-end regular, and while he has looked like it at times, it hasn’t been consistent, and the Rays began moving him all over the infield late last year. As a switch-hitter who’s better from the right side (his numbers have been much better as a righty bat the last couple years), I think Fox will play some sort of multi-positional, shorter half of a platoon role while also pinch running. If you think he’s a low-end regular at short, then he’s a 45 FV, but I think it’ll be hard for him to be more than a 1-WAR role player without any impact in the bat.

28. Drew Strotman, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from St. Mary’s (TBR)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/55 45/50 45/50 90-94 / 95

In many ways, the first half of Strotman’s 2018 season was just like that of Phillies righty Spencer Howard. Like Howard, Strotman mostly pitched out of the bullpen at a second tier California college and only began starting full-time in 2018. He was probably slightly underscouted as an amateur, and definitely underdeveloped. For a month and a half of 2018, he showed mid-rotation stuff, then blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John. His rehab was slow and Strotman was 90-93 when he returned, then 91-95 with average secondary stuff late in the Fall League. He looked like a No. 4 starter before the injury (he was 92-97 at that point) and now looks like a backend arm, but based on how his stuff was trending in the Fall, he might be very relevant later this year.

29. John Doxakis, LHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Texas A&M (TBR)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 50/55 50/55 45/60 88-92 / 93

Doxakis works 88-92 with solid average stuff as a pitchability lefty who can eat innings. His slider has great whiff rates in the zone, which gives him a high floor as a reliever, possibly a multi-inning one, who can work through a lineup with heavy use of his breaking stuff. The shape of his fastball should theoretically pair well with a changeup, but Doxakis sometimes lacks feel for his change, a firm, mid-80s offering that has very little spin and has a chance to be an impact pitch. He’s a backed starter if that pitch develops.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2011 from Colegio Vocacional Para Adultos HS (PR) (ARI)
Age 27.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 45/45 30/35 40/40 45/50 60/60

I expect Perez will win the Rays backup catching job if and when we have a baseball season, and he would have graduated from this list last year had he not missed a lot of time rehabbing a hamstring strain. He is an athletic catcher with a plus arm, average receiving skills, and some feel to hit. After struggling to perform with the bat during the first several years of his career, Perez has now had three straight seasons of at least league-average offensive performance at Double- and Triple-A. He has a pull-and-lift style of hitting, but not enough raw power to optimize that kind of approach. He’s a safe bet to be a quality backup and has a non-zero chance to hit a little more than I expect and end up a low-end regular.

31. Anthony Banda, LHP
Drafted: 10th Round, 2012 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (MIL)
Age 26.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/50 40/40 55/55 40/45 92-95 / 97

It’s been a long and winding road for Banda, who has been traded twice — Milwaukee sent him and Mitch Haniger to Arizona for Gerardo Parra in 2014, and then in 2018, Banda was part of the massive, three-team trade involving Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, among others — and finally looked like he’d get a long-term big league look in 2018. He was 10 innings shy of exhausting rookie eligibility when he tore his UCL and had Tommy John in early June, which shelved him until the very end of the 2019 season. He’s still a big league arm for me, probably a fastball/changeup reliever, but he had No. 4 starter stuff when he was healthy. His age and lack of roster flexibility might force his role to be whatever Banda is capable of handling immediately upon baseball’s return.

32. Curtis Mead, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Australia (PHI)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 45/55 20/50 45/40 40/50 50/50

Mead, a 19-year-old Australian infielder, is an interesting developmental project for the Rays, who acquired him from Philadelphia for 40-man crunch reliever Cristopher Sanchez. Mead signed with just a few weeks left on the 2017 July 2 calendar and only played four games during the summer of 2018 before picking up at-bats during instructional league. While my scout and front office sources describe him as being raw, Mead performed surprisingly well — .285/.351/.462 with a 13% strikeout rate — against what was almost certainly the best pitching he’d ever seen. Rookie-level stats aren’t a reliable means of evaluation on their own, but in this case, they underscore a surprising level of competence given Mead’s inexperience.

The international and pro scouting sources I tapped mentioned Mead’s very projectable, 6-foot-2 frame first. He has power projection because of the frame and a fairly advanced hit tool given his background. He played shortstop as an amateur in Australia and all over the infield in 2019. Based purely on how he looks right now, Mead projects as a corner outfielder, but there may be more room for growth — better footwork and actions — as he accrues reps.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Missouri (SEA)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 192 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 50/55 55/70 87-91 / 93

Another Day 2 college pitcher quickly flipped by the Mariners, Plassmeyer (who was part of the Mallex Smith/Mike Zunino deal) spent most of his first full pro season at Hi-A, where he walked just 16 hitters in 101.2 innings. Like many of the lefty pitchers the Rays seem to like for the org’s change of pace, bulk relief role, Plassmeyer’s fastball has a lot of lateral action because of his lower slot. He works his fastball in on righties (it has tough angle) and sometimes tails it off the plate away from them for swinging strikes. He can back foot his breaking ball consistently and his changeup has sufficient fade to miss bats. This is an elite pitchability lefty with very average stuff who I think ends up in the Yarbrough role.

34. Tristan Gray, 1B
Drafted: 13th Round, 2017 from Rice (PIT)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 45/45 40/45 40/40 45/50 50/50

Like Ford Proctor a few spots higher on this list, Gray was a three-year starter at Rice as a middle infielder and likely projects as a utility guy at the next level, though Gray is more of a shift-aided infielder who fits best at first base and can moonlight at others rather than a guy who’s primarily a middle infield fit. To contrast with Proctor, Gray was a lankier-framed prospect who has slowly filled out and added noticeable loft to his swing last year, so there’s more impact with the bat than there is with Proctor. He’s a lefty infield platoon type similar to 2019 Rule 5 pick Vimael Machin.

35. Tanner Dodson, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Cal (TBR)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 40/40 30/30 60/60 40/45 80/80
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 91-95 / 97

The addition of a 26th man to active rosters makes it less likely that someone like Dodson sees actual time as an outfielder, as teams now have the roster room to house someone who is both better at the things Dodson does as a positional player (he switch-hits, has contact feel from the left side, and throws and runs well) and can also do something else. I think it’s more likely he ends up a two-pitch reliever who only plays the field or hits in case of emergency. Three-batter minimums make obsolete the scenario where Dodson faces a hitter then plays center for a hitter or two before re-entering the game.

36. Joel Peguero, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/60 35/40 93-97 / 98

Peguero is a late-blooming power arm who took a step forward stuff-wise in 2018, then continued to pitch effectively out of Bowling Green’s bullpen in 2019, typically in two-inning outings. It’s a burgeoning, two-pitch relief profile.

37. Resly Linares, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 45/55 45/55 90-93 / 95

Linares made it through just six 2019 innings before he blew out and needed Tommy John. He’s a low-slot lefty with a great breaking ball and a skinny frame that hasn’t filled out very much. His surgery was early enough that he’s likely to be back sometime in 2020, assuming baseball is. Where his velo is coming out of rehab will dictate if he moves up or down this list.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 8th Round, 2014 from Rutgers (CIN)
Age 27.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/35 55/55 50/50 55/55 45/45 55/55

O’Grady is an older prospect who wasn’t given an opportunity to supplant Billy Hamilton in Cincinnati and found his way to the Rays via a small trade for cash or a PTBNL. I think he has big league tools. His 2019 power output was aided by the Triple-A ball but he has above-average raw power and straightline speed. He’s an interesting 1B/OF (including center) lefty-hitting bench piece.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Mexico (BOS)
Age 28.1 Height 5′ 7″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/55 45/45 35/40 40/40 40/40 45/45

Quiroz was Team Mexico’s leadoff hitter during the 2017 WBC (he hit two homers and a double in six at-bats) and spent 2015-’17 crushing the Mexican League. He signed with Boston in November 2017, and was hot the following April at Double-A, but then missed three and a half months with an abdominal strain. He only played in 24 games at Double-A, then had 62 extra plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League, where he played well and was seen by the entire pro scouting community. San Diego traded a 40-man crunch relief arm to Boston for Quiroz, then later flipped him to Tampa Bay as part of the Tommy Pham deal.

This is a very Rays sort of prospect. He has deft, all-fields contact ability and can (kind of) play an up-the-middle position. Quiroz presents rare 40-man flexibility because he’s arguably ready to contribute to a big league lineup right now, but because of how recently he signed, he doesn’t have to occupy a 40-man spot until this December. He can act as viable upper-level depth without occupying a 40-man spot. He lacks the defensive versatility to play a long term bench role but it woudln’t surprise me if he ended up being a low-end second base regular for someone for a couple seasons.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2019 from Duke (TBR)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 245 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/60 60/70 40/40 35/45 93-95 / 98

At one point, Stinson had the nastiest two-pitch combo in his draft class. As a sophomore mostly-reliever at Duke and during the following summer, he worked with two 70-grade pitches in his mid-90s heater and 3000 rpm slider. The following spring, Stinson was set to get his first extended look in the rotation but his velocity was mostly in the 80s without a clear reason. He was quickly shut down for the remainder of the college season, though specifics regarding the injury were not divulged at the time; sources have indicated to FanGraphs it was a nerve issue that may not require surgery. Stinson made just one appearance after he signed and sat 88-90. He has high-leverage relief potential with good health.

41. Sandy Gaston, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (TBR)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/65 45/50 45/50 30/45 93-96 / 97

Gaston was a 15-year-old Cuban defector who, right around his 16th birthday, hit 100 mph while working out for teams. That nearly unprecedented velocity for his age obviously garnered a lot of attention in the scouting community, though Gaston often had 20 control when he scraped triple digits. He also isn’t classically projectable — his velocity is already at the top of the scale and he has a maturely-built frame at 6-foot, but he’s done some arm slot and arm action tinkering over the last few years that has affected his control and command. So while Gaston may get stronger as he physically matures, what’s more important is the projection of his feel for pitching, which appears to be more natural at a three-quarters arm slot with velocity more in the mid-90s, where his arm action is also more naturally online, than the higher slot where he was throwing harder and wilder.

Gaston’s best pitching performance was as the main event on the mound at the Víctor Víctor Mesa workout in Marlins Park, where the better version of his arm slot, arm action, and control was first seen by a large scouting audience. It didn’t hold. Gaston walked a batter per inning in his first pro season while sitting in the 93-97 range with the fastball. He’s a teenage relief prospect at this point.

42. Jelfry Marte, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 40/50 20/40 65/65 50/60 60/60

Marte originally signed with the Twins for $3 million as one of the top position players in the 2017 July 2nd class. That deal was voided over concerns about Marte’s vision, but they weren’t as strong as they were for the last prospect who went through a situation like this, Dominican power-hitting right fielder Wagner Mateo. Mateo signed for $3.1 million with St. Louis in 2009, and after his deal was voided, signed with Arizona for $512,000 almost a year later. He played parts of four seasons before being released by the D-backs, having only appeared in 10 games in a full-season league, with a career .660 OPS.

Marte ended up signing with Tampa Bay less than a month after his deal was voided, this time for $820,000; Tampa Bay saw his vision as a correctable issue. Early looks in pro ball (Marte’s first fall instructs) were positive, but his performance since then has been concerningly bad. The eyeball reports of the physical talent, defense, and speed are still strong, but Marte officially has the contact red flags you’d expect someone with vision issues to exhibit.

Drafted: 18th Round, 2018 from Morehead State (LAD)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 70/70 45/55 45/40 40/40 45/45

The yoked Pennsylvanian became notable when he hit 27 homers as a sophomore at Morehead, but he became legendary when one of them left Choccolocco Park (the Ohio Valley Conference’s tournament site) and hit a fire engine parked well beyond the outfield fence. Hulsizer had a down junior year amid a broken hand but has been mashing since he’s been in pro ball, albeit a level or two below what is typical for prospects his age. He’s a potential three-true-outcomes corner masher.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2018 from Arizona (TOR)
Age 23.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 35/35 30/30 60/60 40/40 40/40

Stevenson is relatively positionless but he has great contact and on-base skills. His numbers are likely inflated due to his age relative to the level, but the industry undervalued him during his draft year because of injury, so it’s possible we’re seeing something closer to the real Stevenson now. He’s already been traded twice (from Toronto to Houston, then Houston to Tampa Bay), so clearly teams are interested in him. I think he’s a fourth outfield prospect but he’s performing like a table-setting leadoff hitter.

45. Colby White, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2019 from Mississippi State (TBR)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 92-95 / 97

White is a power relief prospect with a violent delivery. He spent two years at Pearl River Community College, then transferred to Mississippi State, where he dominated, striking out nearly two batters per inning. He’s of the vertical fastball/breaking ball variety.

46. Audry Lugo, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 55/60 40/45 40/50 92-94 / 96

A short, athletic righty with a high arm slot, Lugo pairs a mid-90s fastball and power curveball in a two-pitch relief profile. Of all the hard-throwing arms in this tier of the system, Lugo has the best combination of stuff and athleticism.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (NYM)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 202 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/70 45/55 30/40 93-96 / 97

Acquired as the PTBNL in the Wilmer Font trade, Catalina is a huge-framed teenage righty up to 97. He has some Domingo Acevedo flavor to the delivery and a lower arm slot, so he’s likely a reliever.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/70 40/50 40/45 40/45 30/40 93-97 / 99

Like Catalina, Cortorreal is a big-bodied, arm strength developmental project whose heater took a leap when he reconfigured his physical conditioning heading into 2019.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from George Mason (SDP)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 30/45 30/30 40/45 55/55

Driscoll is an athletic catcher who has the physical tools to stick behind the plate, but he is still pretty raw and faced mid-major competition in college. He’s an older developmental project.

50. Victor Munoz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 45/50 40/50 35/50 90-93 / 95

There was no velo bump for Munoz in 2019, who remains a good-framed teenage projection arm in the low-90s with some feel for spinning a curveball.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 19.9 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 145 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 35/45 20/40 65/65 50/55 50/50

Like so many of the hitters in this system acquired from both the international and domestic markets, Figuereo is a contact-oriented middle infielder with a small frame. He’s behind similarly-aged players in the system like Alejandro Pie (physical projection) and Abiezel Ramirez (present physicality, a level ahead), but has a speed/contact foundation that gives him a reasonable utility infield outcome with a shot to hit enough for regularity.

Drafted: 23th Round, 2018 from Fresno City JC (CA) (TBR)
Age 20.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Command Sits/Tops
40/45 45/50 55/60 40/50 89-92 / 94

A Rubenesque junior college righty, Whittle signed for $100,000 as a 2018 23rd rounder and had a velo spike in 2019. He’s now 89-92 with heavy sink (an over 60% groundball rate this year) and a good splitter, as well as a passable slider. He’s quite athletic and gets down the mound well for a 5-foot-11 guy, and he lives around the zone. It’s probably important that Whittle’s stuff keep improving, but it’s trending up enough now that he’s popped onto the radar.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Westview HS (CA) (TBR)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/55 45/50 45/55 89-93 / 94

Mercado had surgery last May and picked up a baseball again in October. He hadn’t had the velocity uptick you’d hope a high school draftee his size would have once turning pro, but he’s still barely 21 and has a prototypical starter’s frame and some curveball feel.

54. Jayden Murray, RHP
Drafted: 23th Round, 2019 from Dixie State (TBR)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/60 35/45 90-94 / 96

Murray was a $3,000 senior sign but it quickly became apparent in pro ball that he had workable stuff because of his ability to spin the baseball. After working three or fewer innings at a time for the first several weeks after he signed, the Rays took the reigns off late in August and Murray turned in some fantastic starts, including a 10 strikeout, one hit, six-inning outing to close out the season. He’s a spin rate sleeper.

55. Angel Felipe, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 45/55 20/35 93-96 / 98

Felipe remains quite raw as a strike-thrower and he’s spent a very long time in rookie ball, but he has a chance to have a dominant pitch in the fastball because of the combination of its velo and supporting traits.

56. Carlos Garcia, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 40/50 30/40 90-94 / 95

Garcia bullied Winter League hitters in Australia with a three-pitch mix, all of which flash 55 on the scale. He’s a softer-bodied, relief-only prospect.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Bounce-Back Candidates
Austin Franklin, RHP
Tobias Myers, RHP
Paul Campbell, RHP

Franklin, 22, had a heavy sinker and good curveball before he tore his UCL in mid-2018 and needed TJ, from which he has yet to return. Myers was a trade acquisition who was once a Pick to Click, a late-blooming conversion arm, but his stuff was down last year, a full two ticks since his peak as a prospect. He’s still just 21. Campbell, 24, has what would be the highest fastball spin rate on The Board if his FV merited being on there, at a whopping 2700 rpm. He also has elite curveball spin, though he had a forearm issue this spring.

Thumpers
Oneill Manzueta, LF
Osmy Gregorio, 3B
Garrett Whitley, CF
Stir Candelario, LF

Other than Manzueta, for whom this remains TBD, this entire group has a suspect hit tool. Manzueta, 19, posted big exit velos (averaged 89, maxed 109) in the DSL. He’s a stocky, maxed-out corner outfielder. Gregorio has a big frame and still has power projection at age 21, though it will likely mean he moves to right field and has to hit more than he has so far. Whitley has dealt with myriad injuries since he was a first round prep pick and he’s still a raw bat for a 23-year-old, though his power/speed combo is still dynamic. Candelario hasn’t hit in two DSL seasons but he has 70 raw power projection.

Young Pitchers on the Cusp
Matthew Peguero, RHP
Taj Bradley, RHP
Ben Peoples, RHP
Rodolfo Sanchez, RHP
Franklin Dacosta, LHP

All of these guys have limited physical projection for one reason or another, either due to frame size or physical maturity. Peguero, 20, sits 90-93, touches 95, and flashes an average curve and change. Bradley is maxed out but up to 95, his slurve is the best secondary pitch of this group, and he pitched well in the Appy League last year. Peoples and Dacosta are vertical arm slot types who live in the low-90s. Peoples has an Oliver Drake arm slot and has been up to 93. He was a $350,000 sign on Day 3. Dacosta’s changeup got better last year. He was up to 92 last year and up to 94 in recent bullpens.

Catchers
Roberto Alvarez, C
Rene Pinto, C
Chris Betts, C

Alvarez is a glove/contact prospect who the team has been pushing to levels tougher than is typical for his age (he’s 20), but he regressed athletically last year. Pinto and Betts have rare power for catchers and are both behind the developmental eight ball due to injuries.

“Look” Relievers
Josh Fleming, LHP
Nick Sprengel, LHP
Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP
Evan McKendry, RHP

These are all funky slot or tailing fastball relief types. Fleming is a strike-throwing lefty with a heavy sinker, a curve, and a change. He’s pitched his way to the upper levels as a starter. If a velo bump comes in a bullpen move, he’s going to be a big leaguer. Sprengel is that sort, too, a low slot lefty up to 93. Rosenblum-Larson has a multi-arm slot approach that’s cool and unique, and it’s worked up through Hi-A, but I saw him get hit a lot in the AFL. McKendry, 22, is a sinker/changeup righty up to 92.

Variety Pack
Ben Brecht, LHP
Zack Trageton, RHP
Aldenis Sanchez, CF
Daury Del Rosario, SS
Alan Strong, RHP

Brecht, 22, has a sneaky fastball because of its carry, and his changeup is above-average. Sanchez is a speedy 21-year-old with some contact skills. Del Rosario is just 18 and is all body projection on offense, but he’s likely to stay at short. Trageton and Strong are both overachieving pitchability righties.

Pro Department Under the Microscope
Tommy Romero, RHP
Matt Krook, LHP
Jhonleider Salinas, RHP
Sam McWilliams, RHP
Giointi Turner, INF
Brian Shaffer, RHP
Peyton Battenfield, RHP
Hector Figueroa, RHP
Faustino Carrera, LHP

Romero and Battenfield both have big fastball carry that helps their heaters play up. Salinas and McWilliams are huge frames with arm strength. Turner is a plus athlete who was very young for pro ball when the Rays acquired him. Shaffer and Krook have tailing heaters. The next two are former minor league Rule 5 picks. Carrera is up to 97 from a vertical slot; Carrera lives in the upper-80s, has an odd, low-slot delivery, and can really pitch.

System Overview

Yes, this is one of the, if not the, best farm systems in baseball. The team’s ideas about to how to structure the big league club — defensive versatility, platooning, contact-oriented hitters up the middle, a few delivery archetypes on the pitching staff — have now made their way to the farm system, where these types of players are all over the meat of the team’s rosters.

Year after year, the club has had to deal with an overflow of upcoming 40-man adds, which has recently led it to consolidate high-variance prospects into controllable, but older, late-inning relief arms like Fairbanks and Nick Anderson. The way the Rays value prospects in this era of contention is clearly different, and they may have consistent trade partner fits in San Diego and Miami, teams that clearly like the sorts of players Tampa seems more inclined to cash in when their value is high rather than wait and see if they’re for real.