Hunter Goodman isn’t going to chase forever. We’re not even two weeks into the season. All the players with .400 batting averages will come back down to earth, and so will Goodman and his 54.1% chase rate. That’s right, I said 54.1%. If you’re a pitcher who misses the strike zone, odds are Goodman will help you out by swinging anyway. Sports Info Solutions has been tracking pitches since 2002, and in that time, no qualified player has ever run a 50% chase rate over the course of a whole season. Hanser Alberto reached 54% during the short 2020 season and Ceddanne Rafaela gave it his best effort in 2024 with a 49.5% mark (just ahead of 2023 and 2025 Salvador Perez), but that’s it. Goodman won’t stay above 50% either, but he is on a record pace at the moment, and his 66.1% overall swing rate is even further ahead of Randall Simon’s all-time record of 63.6% in 2002.
I’m less interested in whether or not Goodman will set a record – he probably won’t – and more interested in what’s going on with him right now. Coming into the season, his career chase rate was 42.8%. That’s plenty high, and it included some nine-game stretches in which he at least approached this level. But for the most part, when he was chasing at an extreme rate, his performance cratered, just like you’d expect.
When the blue chase rate line went up, the red wRC+ line went down. But that seemed to change toward the end of the 2024 season. I don’t think it’ll last, but at the moment, Goodman is running a 109 wRC+ despite an appalling dereliction of discernment. It’s not necessarily that he can’t tell the difference between a ball and a strike. As I write this on Tuesday, there are still five qualified players who haven’t walked at all. Goodman is not one of them, nor is he one of the 149 players who’s swung at a pitch in the waste zone. Read the rest of this entry »
Landen Roupp leans heavily on his high-spin curveball, and Hayden Birdsong is a purveyor of the kick-change. Both pitches profile as plus, which is a big reason the right-handers are being counted on to provide quality innings in their respective roles with the San Francisco Giants this season; Roupp is in the rotation, while Birdsong is working out of the bullpen.
The early results have been promising. The 26-year-old Roupp, who is scheduled to make his second start on Tuesday night against the Cincinnati Reds, made his season debut on April 2 in a 6-3 Giants win over the Houston Astros. The start wasn’t great — he was removed with the bases loaded and nobody out in the fifth inning and was ultimately charged with three runs — but his eight strikeouts were encouraging. Seven of those strikeouts — and none of the four hits he allowed — came against his curveball. He threw his signature offering 34 times in his 83-pitch effort.
Birdsong has thrown four scoreless innings over two relief appearances. One of his four strikeouts has come courtesy of the kick-change, which he has thrown nine times out of 53 total pitches. The 23-year-old, likewise in his second big league season, has primarily attacked hitters with his high-octane heater (56.6% usage).
The stories behind Roupp’s hook and Birdsong’s changeup? I broached the subjects with the right-handers in Giants camps shortly before the start of the regular season.
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“I’ve thrown it my entire life,” Roupp said of his curveball. “All that’s really different is that I’m getting stronger with more mobility, and learning about the metrics. In college we didn’t have metrics. So, learning ways to make it move more and spin harder… learning and growing into my body has made it a lot better. For me, having confidence in it is the biggest thing.”
A 12th-round pick out of UNC-Wilmington in 2021, Roupp spun his curveball at 3,056 rpm in his April 2 outing, comfortably within the 2,900-3,100 range he’d described to me. Roupp also said that he “gets about 19 to 22 [inches] of horizontal [movement] and something like negative-11 vert” when he is executing properly. Timing is the key. When he’s out of sync with his delivery it doesn’t come out of his hand exactly as he’d like. Picking up a baseball, Roupp showed me his two-seam fastball grip, then rotated the ball just slightly. He explained that he throws his curveball just like his two-seamer, but “with a snap.”
Roupp’s curveball is “pretty slow,” averaging 77.4 mph since the start of last season. He said the speed differential between that and his fastball — his two-seamer averages 93.4 mph — is a big part of its effectiveness. As for its usage, he threw the curve 41% of the time in his first outing, which was slightly less frequently than he did last season (44.1%). With the caveat that one game is nowhere near a large enough sample size to determine what a pitcher’s usage rates will be, that dip was notable given that Roupp told me this spring that his plan was to throw his curve less often this season.
“Coming up through the minor leagues, they were telling me I was throwing it too much,” Roupp said. “That was more about developing my other pitches, though. But while I might throw it 40% of the time, I do think I’m going to lean back a little bit now that I have the changeup and the cutter. The changeup was new last year, and the cutter this year. I want to implement those and get people off my curveball so that it’s even more effective at the big league level.”
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“I have a high-vert heater with pretty good velo,” Birdsong said when asked to describe his full arsenal. “My curveball is the opposite of my fastball in that it’s just straight down; it’s negative-15 vert when it’s good. My slider is kind of in development and is more of a cutter. My changeup is just my changeup. I started throwing it last year, and it’s developed into one of my better pitches.”
That would of course be the kick-change. The right-hander supposedly learned it at Tread Athletics… except, that’s not true. Birdsong explained that while “everybody says that,” he’s never been to Tread, nor has he talked to anyone who works there. He simply watched a Tread video, then began experimenting with the grip the following day.
“I started playing catch with it — this was in spring training — and I’m not sure I can even remember who my catch partner was,” said Birdsong, whom the Giants took in the sixth round of the 2022 draft out of Eastern Illinois. “It might have been Spencer Bivens. But my changeup had been horrible the year before. It was basically just a bad fastball, a 15-vert slower fastball. That’s all it was. I needed to find another grip, one that wasn’t a splitter — I didn’t want to mess with one of those — so I started looking at videos. That one popped up.”
Birdsong’s previous attempts to find a quality changeup had all been for naught, but when he saw the kick-change, he thought, “Let’s try it.” To his knowledge, he’d never thrown one “under nine vert.” All of a sudden, he had one that was close to zero. The first coach he approached with that news didn’t believe it.
“I was throwing it, and it was tumbling,” Birdsong said. “It was doing what I wanted it to do. I told [bullpen coach Garvin Alston] that I’d thrown a changeup in the bullpen and it was negative vert. He goes ‘No.’ Then he was like, ‘Let me go take a look [at the data].’ I asked him about it the next day and he said, ‘Keep throwing it.’”
As Davis Martin and Matt Bowman explained here at FanGraphs last September, the pitch that Birdsong is now throwing has a close-cousin relationship with the better-known split change. While the name is new, the pitch itself really isn’t.
“I saw the video and called it a spike change,” said Birdsong. “I showed the grip to somebody — I forget who it was — and he was like, ‘Yeah, there are some guys who used to throw that. It’s called a kick-change.’ All it is, really, is that you’re kicking the axis of the ball. Whatever you call it, it works for me.”
You lose some, and then you lose some. On Sunday at Oracle Park, the Mariners not only fell to the Giants 5-4, but they were forced to remove Victor Robles from the game after he injured his left shoulder making a remarkable catch on the game’s penultimate pitch. His injury is just one of a handful of notable ones suffered in the past several days.
Robles, who broke out last season after being released by the Nationals and signed by the Mariners, had played every inning of every game in right field until the injury. With the score tied 4-4 in the bottom of the ninth, one out, and Luis Matos on first base, Patrick Bailey fouled a drive into the right field corner. Robles sprinted 113 feet, leapt to grab the ball, and then fell over the half-height padded fence and into the netting. After extricating himself, he fell to his knees in obvious pain, rolled the ball to second baseman Ryan Bliss as Matos tagged up and reached third base, and remained on the ground. While he was tended to by Mariners head athletic trainer Kyle Torgerson, Giants manager Bob Melvin challenged the catch ruling, but the call on the field was upheld [as a reader pointed out, Matos was sent back to second under stadium boundary rules]. Finally, Robles was carted off the field, with Torgerson helping him to support his injured left arm.
Miles Mastrobuoni moved from third base to right field to replace Robles, but he didn’t need to for very long, because on the next pitch after play resumed, Wilmer Flores singled in Matos to send the Mariners to defeat, dropping them to 3-7. Medical personnel at Oracle Park popped Robles’ shoulder back into place, and after undergoing X-rays on-site, he was initially diagnosed with a dislocated left shoulder and placed on the 10-day injured list. The results of the follow-up MRI he underwent on Monday afternoon have yet to be announced.Read the rest of this entry »
Then he changed his mind. I try to avoid the impulse to tell baseball players what to do with their careers, but I’ll say this: $500 million is a really, really good reason to abandon one’s previous position.
Guerrero’s $500 million contract extension with the Blue Jays starts next year, runs for 14 years, and contains a full no-trade clause but no opt-outs. The intention, then, is to keep Guerrero in Toronto for the rest of his career. Read the rest of this entry »
During the course of my spring training coverage (especially right at the end), I ran into the Giants affiliates a couple of times as I trailed the Brewers and Dodgers farm systems. I saw enough to make a few tweaks to the Giants prospect list, which I have brief notes on below. You can see the complete updated list over on The Board. I’ve also included notes on a few recent trades.
Toolsy Outfielders With Strikeout Risk Who Have Moved Up
Dakota Jordan’s swing has changed (mostly his posture throughout the swing), and I think it gives him a better chance to hit. I was way out on him making any kind of viable contact before last year’s draft, but he has loud showcase tools (power/speed) and now we’ll see if the proactive changes make a difference for his contact ability. He has also looked good in center field, including highlight reel play in which he collided with the wall at Papago Park, but then forgot how many outs there were and spiked the baseball:
The Terry Francona era in Cincinnati is not off to a rousing start, particularly on offense. Last week, the Reds became the first team to lose three straight 1-0 games in 65 years, and so far, they’ve lost all three series they’ve played, against the Giants, Rangers, and Brewers. Despite the promise of a good rotation headlined by Hunter Greene, and some eye-opening changes by Elly De La Cruz, it looks like it could be a long summer in Cincinnati.
The Reds are 3-7 and fourth in the NL Central entering Monday. They’ve actually outscored opponents 39-38, but two of their three wins were lopsided ones, a 14-3 blowout of the Rangers on March 31 and then an 11-7 win on Saturday over the Brewers. Between those games, they lost four straight, including a pair of 1-0 games against the Rangers on April 1 and 2, and then a third 1-0 loss to the Brewers on April 3. They actually went scoreless for 35 consecutive innings, the longest stretch that a Reds team has gone without a run since 1946. The streak began with the eighth inning on March 31 (a home game, so they didn’t bat in the ninth), ran through those three 1-0 losses, and extended until the eighth on April 4, when they were down 3-0; they scored a pair of unearned runs but fell short, 3-2.
Amid that streak, the Reds made some dubious history, becoming just the sixth AL or NL team to lose three straight 1-0 games since 1901:
Chase Dollander made his much-anticipated debut with the Rockies on Sunday afternoon, allowing seven hits and four runs over five innings and earning his first big league win. Ranked no. 12 on our Top 100 Prospects list this spring, the 23-year-old right-hander fanned six, walked one, and surrendered a pair of home runs as Colorado outscored the Athletics 12-5 at Coors Field.
His power arsenal was on display throughout. Topping out at 99.3 mph with his high-octane heater, the 2023 first-round pick out of the University of Tennessee threw 34 four-seamers, 21 sliders (which Baseball Savant classifies as a cutter), 15 curveballs, and nine changeups. Undaunted by a premiere in the majors’ most hitter-friendly venue, he aggressively attacked the zone, throwing 49 of his 79 pitches (62.%) for strikes.
Dollander discussed his repertoire prior to the start of the regular season.
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David Laurila: Scouting reports say you have a plus fastball, good secondaries, and that you usually command the ball well. Does that sound accurate?
Chase Dollander: “I would say so. I feel like my stuff is in a good spot right now. I do think that getting the slider a little harder and a little shorter would be good for me. But other than that, yeah, I feel like my stuff is in a good spot.”
We have all kinds of fantastic stats for tracking player performance, metrics that are descriptive, predictive and somewhere in between. Today, I would like to introduce a descriptive stat for the folks on the team who do not wear spikes. Think of this as an attempt to measure the performance of management by trying to quantify the work of the front office and coaching staff using a folky metaphor.
Oh, Puff the magic dragon lived by the sea
And frolicked in the autumn mist, in a land called Honah Lee
Baseball is a game for kids. The best of the best get to frolic in the autumn mist in a Honah Lee called the World Series. Baseball has many reasons to favor youth, some structural to the game as a business and others more existential, like Peter, Paul and Mary sing about.
Team control and the aging process conspire to make young, developing players the most valuable to the ballclub. Their income constraints mean that youngsters can rack up surplus value if they hit their ceiling, and are an inexpensive sunk cost at worst. The best baseball exists in the sweet spot between the physicality of youth and the skill earned through repetition. Not exactly revolutionary, but my stat builds from the logic that you want to play guys who can either contribute to wins this season or might develop into contributors in the future. Additionally, I am assuming that playing time at the major league level is far better for evaluation and development than the upper minors due to the quality of competition as well as the availability of data, scouting tools and other resources, though obviously that might vary depending on the org and the player. Here is where Peter, Paul and Mary, darlings of the Greenwich folk scene of the 1960s, come into play. Read the rest of this entry »
Dylan Moore saw an ideal opportunity when he signed with the Seattle Mariners as a minor-league free agent in November 2018. Following a solid season split between Double-A and Triple-A in the Milwaukee Brewers organization, Moore had been discussing best scenarios with both his wife and his agent when Jerry Dipoto called. The Seattle GM told him, “Hey, we’ve got a spot you could win out of camp. What do you say?” Moore responded, “Let’s do it.”
Seattle’s Swiss Army Knife made a shrewd decision — as did Dipoto. In seven seasons with the Mariners, Moore has not only played every position besides catcher, he’s been slightly above-average with the bat. In just under 1,700 career plate appearances, the 32-year-old has swatted 54 home runs and logged a 104 wRC+. Moreover, he’s swiped 105 bases, including a team-high 32 last season.
Defensive versatility is arguably his greatest asset. Moore has already seen action at three infield positions this year, and his 2024 ledger includes 15 or more starts at four different positions. More than anything, it’s his ability to play all over the diamond that makes him the longest-tenured current Mariner. Moore understands that as well as anyone.
“I’ve gotten exponentially better since signing with Seattle,” the 2024 utility-position Gold Glove winner told me. “I’ve been really fortunate to have really good coaches, like Bone [renowned infield coach Perry Hill], who are making sure that I’m ready to go at any position. I work hard on my defense. I have a lot of pride in what I do, especially defensively. Versatility is what keeps my value up.”
Moore’s assessment of his offensive contributions stood out in our late-March conversation. Read the rest of this entry »
Company Overview
At the Miami Marlins, we make waves — on and off the field.
We’re built for sustainable success thanks to our commitment to be great teammates, bold innovators, and thinking long-term. These three pillars guide us in championing a winning culture across the organization. The work we do doesn’t just impact our team — it reaches fans and communities across South Florida.
Position Summary
As a Senior Data Scientist in Baseball Research, you will be responsible for supporting the department in developing sophisticated statistical models, advancing our ability to forecast player performance, and translating insights into actionable recommendations for the Miami Marlins front office. This role involves prioritizing and executing research requests, creating innovative models, and collaborating with other departments across baseball operations. Strong statistical modeling skills, technical expertise, ability to communicate to technical and non-technical audiences, and a passion for baseball are essential for success in this position.
Essential Functions
Construct advanced statistical models to support decision-making within Baseball Operations.
Convert key baseball (and physical) concepts into metrics, features, and insights for consumption by the Baseball Solutions and Baseball Research departments, as well as those outside of R&D.
Develop and maintain production pipelines for daily implementation of statistical models.
Collaborate with other analysts, engineers, and stakeholders to identify opportunities for improvement.
Manage and clean large datasets from various sources.
Provide actionable insights through detailed statistical analysis.
Assist with recruiting and evaluating applicants to join the Baseball Research team.
Provide mentorship and guidance to other analysts on the Baseball Research team.
Create and maintain documentation outlining departmental best practices.
Our Values
We Are Great Teammates
Supports and encourages colleagues.
Provides and receives feedback without judgement or ego.
Holds one another to a high standard.
Provides help and encouragement proactively.
Assumes positive intentions from others.
Looks for ways to help make their teammates better.
We Are Innovators
Embraces a growth mindset.
Challenges conventional wisdom.
Unafraid to fail.
Pushes boundaries and doesn’t accept impossible.
Asks why and asks why not.
We Think Long-Term
Asks: what can I do today that will pay off a year from now.
Eschews instant gratification for bigger benefits in the future.
Experience with probabilistic programming languages (Stan, PyMC)
Strong analytical and problem-solving skills.
Strong proficiency in programming languages such as Python, R, and SQL.
Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
Ability to manage multiple tasks and meet deadlines.
Collaborative mindset and willingness to work in a team environment.
Willingness to relocate to Miami and commute to loanDepot Park.
Familiarity with public baseball research.
Experience with Git and cloud-based computing.
Demonstrated mentorship experience is preferred.
Education & Experience Guidelines
Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Data Science, or a related quantitative field. Graduate degree is preferred.
5+ years of experience in a data analysis role is preferred.
Note that education may be considered in lieu of experience and vice-versa.
Extensive experience in a baseball or sports-related environment is preferred.
Work Environment
Ability to work flexible hours, including evenings, weekends, and holidays as needed.
Occasional travel may be required.
Standard office working conditions with extended periods of sitting and working on a computer.
We are an equal opportunity employer and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, age, disability, gender identity, marital or veteran status, or any other protected class.
Job Questions
Provide a link to your favorite piece of baseball research. It can be a blog post, Twitter thread, peer-reviewed article, or anything else. Include a brief summary of your key takeaways, along with any improvements you would suggest or further research you would like to complete. Please limit your response to 200 words or less.
Company Overview
At the Miami Marlins, we make waves — on and off the field.
We’re built for sustainable success thanks to our commitment to be great teammates, bold innovators, and thinking long-term. These three pillars guide us in championing a winning culture across the organization. The work we do doesn’t just impact our team — it reaches fans and communities across South Florida.
Position Summary
As a Baseball Analyst in either Baseball Solutions or Baseball Research, you will be responsible for supporting the department in developing sophisticated statistical models, advancing our ability to forecast player performance, and translating insights into actionable recommendations for the Miami Marlins front office. These roles involve prioritizing and executing research requests, creating innovative models, and collaborating with other departments across baseball operations. Strong statistical modeling skills, technical expertise, ability to communicate to technical and non-technical audiences, and a passion for baseball are essential for success in these positions. Note that these are two separate positions, and applicants will automatically be considered for both positions.
Essential Functions
Construct advanced statistical models to support decision-making within Baseball Operations.
Convert key baseball (and physical) concepts into metrics, features, and insights for consumption by the Baseball.
Solutions and Baseball Research departments, as well as those outside of R&D.
Develop and maintain production pipelines for daily implementation of statistical models.
Collaborate with other analysts, engineers, and stakeholders to identify opportunities for improvement.
Manage and clean large datasets from various sources.
Provide actionable insights through detailed statistical analysis.
Assist with recruiting and evaluating applicants to join the Baseball Research team.
Create and maintain documentation outlining departmental best practices.
Our Values
We Are Great Teammates
Supports and encourages colleagues.
Provides and receives feedback without judgement or ego.
Holds one another to a high standard.
Provides help and encouragement proactively.
Assumes positive intentions from others.
Looks for ways to help make their teammates better.
We Are Innovators
Embraces a growth mindset.
Challenges conventional wisdom.
Unafraid to fail.
Pushes boundaries and doesn’t accept impossible.
Asks why and asks why not.
We Think Long-Term
Asks: what can I do today that will pay off a year from now.
Eschews instant gratification for bigger benefits in the future.
Always trying to think three steps ahead.
Skill Requirements
Proficiency in programming languages such as Python, R, and SQL.
Experience with probabilistic programming languages preferred (Stan, PyMC)
Strong analytical and problem-solving skills.
Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
Ability to manage multiple tasks and meet deadlines.
Collaborative mindset and willingness to work in a team environment.
Willingness to relocate to Miami and commute to loanDepot Park.
Familiarity with public baseball research.
Experience with Git and cloud-based computing preferred.
Education & Experience Guidelines
Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Data Science, or a related quantitative field. Graduate degree is preferred, or equivalent real-world experience
0-2 years of experience in a data analysis role
Note that education may be considered in lieu of experience and vice-versa.
Experience in a baseball or sports-related environment is preferred.
Work Environment
Ability to work flexible hours, including evenings, weekends, and holidays as needed.
Occasional travel may be required.
Standard office working conditions with extended periods of sitting and working on a computer.
We are an equal opportunity employer and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, age, disability, gender identity, marital or veteran status, or any other protected class.
Job Questions:
Provide a link to your favorite piece of baseball research. It can be a blog post, Twitter thread, peer-reviewed article, or anything else. Include a brief summary of your key takeaways, along with any improvements you would suggest or further research you would like to complete. Please limit your response to 200 words or less.
