Bryce Eldridge is the top prospect in the San Francisco Giants system thanks largely to the lethality of his power-packed left-handed stroke, an enviable asset that he augments with a patient approach. Drafted 16th overall in 2023 out of Vienna, Virginia’s James Madison High School, the 6-foot-7 first baseman projects, in the words of Eric Longenhagen, as “a middle-of-the-order force.”

What he accomplished in his first full professional season suggests that our lead prospect analyst’s assessment was spot-on. Beginning the year in Low-A and ending it in Triple-A, Eldridge slashed .289/.372/.513 with 23 home runs and a 137 wRC+ over 519 plate appearances. Moreover, he put up those numbers as a teenager. Eldridge didn’t turn 20 until mid-October.

That he was drafted as a two-way player is part of his story. While he hasn’t toed the rubber in a game since receiving his just-shy-of $4M signing bonus, the possibility of his playing both ways was certainly there. (Longenhagen was bearish on the idea, opining in his post-draft recap that the “two-way experiment should eventually lead him to full-time hitting.”)

His potential as a pitcher was the first subject I broached when speaking to Edington at the Arizona Fall League, where he is suiting up for the Scottsdale Scorpions. Why is he now a hitter only? Read the rest of this entry »

Ethan Salas is one of baseball’s top prospects. Currently playing for the Arizona Fall League’s Peoria Javelinas, the left-handed-hitting catcher is not only No. 7 on The Board, he won’t turn 19 until next summer. Signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela by the San Diego Padres in January 2023, Salas is both precociously talented and mature beyond his years.

He is also still figuring things out. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound backstop was refreshingly candid on that front when I spoke to him on my recent visit to the AFL. More advanced defensively than he is with the bat — a scouting assessment he agrees with — Salas readily admits that there areas in which he needs to improve.

“I would say more consistency on game management stuff would be the biggest one right now,” said Salas, who has caught only 870 professional innings. “Calling pitches, situations in the game, seeing things before they happen, how to prevent big innings. I need to be more efficient in those areas.”

Salas’s physical attributes are undeniably plus, which brings us to an interesting aspect of how he operates behind the dish. It came to the fore when I asked if he is one-knee-down or more traditional in his setup. Read the rest of this entry »

Even in an era brimming with colorful characters and exceptional hurlers, Luis Tiant stood out. The barrel-chested, mustachioed Cuban righty combined an assortment of exaggerated deliveries with a variety of arm angles and speeds that baffled hitters — and tantalized writers — over the course of a 19-year major league career (1964–82) and an affiliation with the game in one capacity or another that extended through the remainder of his life. “The Cuban Dervish,” as Sports Illustrated’s Ron Fimrite christened him in 1975, died last Tuesday at the age of 83. No cause of death was announced.

The son of a legendary left-hander colloquially known as Luis Tiant Sr., the younger Tiant was exiled from his home country in the wake of Cuban prime minister Fidel Castro’s travel restrictions, and separated from his family for 14 years. Against that backdrop of isolation, “El Tiante” went on to become the winningest Cuban-born pitcher in major league history, and to emerge as a larger-than-life character, so inseparable from his trademark cigars that he chomped them even in postgame showers. He spoke softly in a thick accent, but that didn’t prevent his wit and wisdom from getting across, particularly during the latter half of his career, after he emerged from a serious arm injury to become a top big-game pitcher. “In boots, black cap, foot-long cigar and nothing else, he’d hold court with half-hour monologues Richard Pryor would envy,” wrote Thomas Boswell in 1988.

Tiant’s ascendence to iconic status centered around his 1971–78 run with the Red Sox, reaching its pinnacle in their seven-game 1975 World Series defeat, during which he made three starts: a brilliant Game 1 shutout; a gritty Game 4 complete game during which he delivered “163 pitches in 100 ways,” to use the description of Sports Illustrated‘s Roy Blount Jr.; and a valiant, draining Game 6 effort where he faltered late but was saved by Carlton Fisk’s famous body-English home run around Fenway Park’s left field foul pole in the 12th inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Zyhir Hope is one of the youngest and least experienced players participating in the Arizona Fall League. Acquired by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the January deal that sent Michael Busch to the Chicago Cubs, the 19-year-old outfielder has just 315 professional plate appearances, in part because he missed three months this season with a shoulder injury. The raw tools are impressive. Since being selected in the 11th round of last year’s draft out of Stafford, Virginia’s Colonial Forge High School, Hope has slashed .289/.419/.492 with a dozen home runs and a 143 wRC+.

How he would define himself as a hitter is a question he wasn’t quite sure how to answer when I posed it to him on Wednesday.

“I try my best,” responded Hope, who is suiting up for the Glendale Desert Dogs. “I have amazing coaches and a lot of resources to kind of help me find myself, find my swing. I’m working every day, trying to stay consistent, trusting the process.”

Asked if his setup and swing are essentially the same as when he signed, he said that they are. As for how much he studies the intricacies of his craft, let’s just say that Hope is a believer — at least to this point of his young career — in keeping things as simple as possible.

“I don’t really think about that stuff, about mechanics,” explained Hope, who takes his cuts from the left side. “I just go out there and swing, to be honest. I love to just go out there and swing. It’s just feels, man. Just feels. I’ve been that way my whole life. See ball, hit ball.” Read the rest of this entry »

Justyn-Henry Malloy was in the Atlanta Braves organization when he appeared as a guest on FanGraphs Audio in October 2022, this while finishing up his first full professional season in the Arizona Fall League. He became a Tiger soon thereafter. In early December of that year, Detroit acquired the now-24-year-old outfielder, along with Jake Higginbotham, in exchange for Joe Jiménez.

Then a promising-yet-unpolished 2021 sixth-round pick out of Georgia Tech, Malloy was described in our trade recap as possessing “a combination of power and patience.” It was the latter that stood out most. Plate discipline was the youngster’s carrying tool, as evidenced by a .438 OBP as a collegian and a .408 OBP across three levels in the minors. Despite a higher-than-ideal strikeout rate and questions about his defensive future — he’d recently transitioned to left field from the hot corner — Malloy seemed well positioned to join a young Tigers lineup in the coming seasons.

He arrived, at least in part, this summer. After doing his thing in Toledo — his stat line with the Triple-A Mud Hens this season included a .403 OBP and a 129 wRC+ — Malloy made his MLB debut in early June, and with the exception of brief demotion in late August remained on the roster throughout. His numbers were admittedly not great. In 230 plate appearances against big-league pitching he slashed just .203/.291/.366 with eight home runs. Moreover, a pedestrian 10% walk rate belied the discerning-eye approach that helped him get there.

How different is the present day Justin-Henry Malloy from the up-and-coming prospect I’d talked to two years ago? I asked him that question when the Tigers played in Chicago on the final weekend of the regular season. Read the rest of this entry »

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Baseball Scientist
Senior Analyst, Baseball Analytics
Analyst, Baseball Analytics

Baseball Scientist

Location: Fort Myers, FL, United States

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking a forward-thinking Baseball Scientist to drive the development and application of innovative biomechanics systems aimed at improving on-field performance and injury risk mitigation. This role will involve the collection, processing, analysis, and reporting of motion capture data, as well as the development of custom software tools and pipelines to streamline these processes. The Baseball Scientist will collaborate with various stakeholders including Strength & Conditioning, Medical, and Player Development to integrate biomechanical insights into training and game strategies and will work to evolve the position beyond just operating the lab by creating scalable systems and contributing to educational initiatives.

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
The Baseball Sciences department leverages cutting-edge research, data, and technology to enhance player performance, development, and overall team success. By integrating principles from biomechanics, sports science, data analytics, and artificial intelligence, the department plays a critical role in driving innovation on and off the field. The team works closely with coaches, medical staff, strength & conditioning experts, and front-office personnel to develop and implement evidence-based strategies that improve player health, maximize athletic potential, and optimize in-game performance. The Baseball Sciences department is committed to pushing the boundaries of sports science in baseball, putting the Red Sox at the forefront of technological and analytical advancements in the sport.

RESPONSIBILITIES

• Manage the day-to-day operations of the biomechanics lab, including scheduling data collection sessions, coordinating with athletes and staff, and ensuring proper data storage and processing protocols are followed.
• Develop custom software tools and data pipelines using languages such as Python, R, C/C++, and SQL to automate data processing, analysis, and reporting.
• Create scalable systems that allow coaches, coordinators, analysts, and office personnel to effectively leverage biomechanical data and insights throughout the organization.
• Contribute to internal educational initiatives to ensure that relevant stakeholders understand biomechanical principles, their relevance to player health and performance, limitations, and practical applications within baseball.
• Continuously evaluate and improve biomechanical data collection and analysis processes, staying up to date with the latest technologies and best practices in the field.

COMPETENCIES

• Demonstrated biomechanics data collection experience with both marker-based and markerless motion capture systems.
• Strong coding skills in languages such as Python, R, SQL, and C/C++, with experience developing custom software tools and data pipelines.
• Previous experience working directly with coaches and/or athletes, with the ability to effectively communicate complex biomechanical concepts to non-technical audiences.
• Formal undergraduate and graduate-level education in biomechanics, computer science, or a related field (i.e., MS, MA, Ph.D.) is preferred.
• Ability to connect with and respect people from different backgrounds and cultures, including players, families, coaches, agents, trainers, and others.
• Passion for leveraging technology and data to drive innovation in sports performance and injury prevention.
In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Senior Analyst, Baseball Analytics

Location: Boston, MA, United States

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
Baseball Analytics supports the decision-making processes throughout Baseball Operations, including Player Acquisition, Player Development, and Player Optimization. Core responsibilities include predictive modeling, long-term research, report creation, and delivering the output of one’s work in a clear and digestible manner.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Boston Red Sox seek a Senior Analyst for the club’s Baseball Analytics department to develop, evaluate, and optimize predictive models that enhance decision-making across all aspects of Baseball Operations. The Senior Analyst will collaborate closely with the Baseball Analytics team and other Baseball Operations stakeholders to influence player personnel decisions and strategic initiatives. As a senior member of the team, the Senior Analyst will help shape the data strategy of the department influencing team growth and keeping the group on the cutting edge of predictive data science. This role offers a unique opportunity to apply advanced statistical techniques and data science to shape the team’s future direction.

The successful candidate will possess excellent analytical skills, a deep understanding of baseball, and the ability to communicate technical concepts to non-technical audiences effectively. The specific role, level, and compensation package will be tailored to the selected candidate’s qualifications and experience.

RESPONSIBILITIES

• Design and maintain robust predictive models and data pipelines to generate insights for player evaluation, acquisition, development, and performance optimization. 
• Craft compelling written reports and data visualizations to effectively communicate complex analyses to diverse audiences, including both technical specialists and Baseball Operations leadership. 
• Partner with the Baseball Systems team to seamlessly integrate new analytical findings into team applications and proactively identify and address data quality issues. 
• Continuously monitor and evaluate cutting-edge analytics and research from public and academic spaces to recommend innovative ideas, methodologies, and technologies that can enhance on-field performance. 

COMPETENCIES

• Understanding of modern statistical and machine learning methods and an advanced proficiency with popular data science languages and libraries. 
• Practical understanding of how to approach research questions to drive actionable insights. 
• Able to visualize, present and disseminate analyses to a diverse group of stakeholders (leadership, coaches, players, scouts, etc.) in a clean, intuitive, and engaging way. 

ADDITIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

• PhD or master’s degree in a quantitative field (such as statistics, engineering, applied mathematics, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, computer vision, or operations research) or equivalent professional experience. 
• Proficiency in SQL and programming languages such as R or Python. 
• A passion for baseball and a strong desire to contribute to building a championship-winning team. 

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Analyst, Baseball Analytics

Location: Boston, MA, United States

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
Baseball Analytics supports the decision-making processes throughout Baseball Operations, including Player Acquisition, Player Development, and Player Optimization. Core responsibilities include predictive modeling, long-term research, report creation, and delivering the output of one’s work in a clear and digestible manner.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Boston Red Sox seek an Analyst for the club’s Baseball Analytics department to develop, evaluate, and optimize predictive models that enhance decision-making across all aspects of Baseball Operations. Operating in a dynamic and intellectually stimulating environment, the Analyst will collaborate closely with the Baseball Analytics team and other Baseball Operations stakeholders to influence player personnel decisions and strategic initiatives. This role offers a unique opportunity to apply advanced statistical techniques and data science to shape the team’s future direction.

The successful candidate will possess strong analytical skills, a deep understanding of baseball, and the ability to communicate technical concepts to non-technical audiences effectively. The specific role, level, and compensation package will be tailored to the selected candidate’s qualifications and experience. Applications are encouraged from individuals with varying levels of expertise in the field.

RESPONSIBILITIES

• Design and maintain robust predictive models and data pipelines to generate insights for player evaluation, acquisition, development, and performance optimization. 
• Craft compelling written reports and data visualizations to effectively communicate complex analyses to diverse audiences, including both technical specialists and Baseball Operations leadership. 
• Partner with the Baseball Systems team to seamlessly integrate new analytical findings into team applications and proactively identify and address data quality issues. 
• Continuously monitor and evaluate cutting-edge analytics and research from public and academic spaces to recommend innovative ideas, methodologies, and technologies that can enhance on-field performance. 

COMPETENCIES

• Understanding of modern statistical and machine learning methods and an advanced proficiency with popular data science languages and libraries. 
• Practical understanding of how to approach research questions to drive actionable insights. 
• Able to visualize, present and disseminate analyses to a diverse group of stakeholders (leadership, coaches, players, scouts, etc.) in a clean, intuitive, and engaging way. 

ADDITIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

• PhD or master’s degree in a quantitative field (such as statistics, engineering, applied mathematics, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, computer vision, or operations research) or equivalent professional experience. 
• Proficiency in SQL and programming languages such as R or Python. 
• A passion for baseball and a strong desire to contribute to building a championship-winning team. 

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.

Manager, Amateur Scouting

Location: Boston, MA

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
The Amateur Domestic Scouting department is primarily responsible for improving organizational talent through the Rule IV Draft and UDFA signing process. The Amateur Domestic Scouting department strives to be best in class at identifying, evaluating, and valuing amateur baseball talent through a relentless commitment to our process and our people. This includes, but is not limited to creating well-rounded scouting practices, building relationships, leveraging R&D for process support, developing strong staff education frameworks, and establishing sound decision-making processes.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
This is an office-based role that operates in close collaboration with department leadership to drive process improvement while providing support across all areas of the Amateur Scouting operation. As part of this role, support will be required in the following areas: player analysis and evaluation, administration, data collection, and quality control. Additionally, the role helps manage Associate support for Amateur Scouting, as well as the greater Baseball Operations department.

RESPONSIBILITIES:

• Lead, implement and improve processes across all areas of the scouting operation, focusing on advancements in workflow, evaluative methods, decision-making, and staff development.
• Drive the development and enhancement of the performance identification process.
• Collaborate with Analytics, Systems, and Baseball Strategy departments to identify and drive research opportunities that enhance player evaluation.
• Work alongside department leadership and partner departments to fully vet and comprehensively analyze all potential draft candidates.
• Work with all stakeholders within Amateur Scouting to optimize effectiveness and efficiency of scouting operations and analysis while own a workload of administrative tasks.
• Ensure high standards of quality, rigor, and timeliness of player-level data and efficient delivery and communication of high-value information.
• Evaluate amateur player targets across assigned areas of responsibility using a hybrid approach of live and video scouting as well as internal information sources.
• Power use internal systems and valuation materials. Oversee Associate, Amateur Scouting and their development.
• Designs, integrates, and continuously improves processes in alignment with our organizational KPI’s. 

COMPETENCIES:

• Ability to interact deeply with predictive modeling groups and analytical outputs to integrate and apply to decision-making processes.
• Command of valuation frameworks and principles, and the ability to collaborate inter-departmentally to iterate and improve applied valuation methodologies.
• Experience with and aptitude for player analysis and evaluation (subjective and objective) and a knowledge of baseball markets across acquisition spaces, transactional/operational areas, and other domains.
• Ability to apply evaluation and valuation expertise in the respective planning and decision-making processes.
• A strong understanding of and ability to relate to the demands, challenges, and needs of both field and office staff.
• Command of end-to-end processes that power decisions and ability to contribute to improvements; ability to design effective and efficient processes within the Amateur Domestic Scouting department and inter-departmentally, and to act as a strong resource for leadership in the planning and execution of departmental priorities.
• Ability to connect with and respect people from different backgrounds and cultures, including players, families, coaches, agents, trainers, and others.

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.

Acquisition Specialist

Location: Remote

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Acquisition Specialist will play an important role in enhancing the Scouting process through live and video evaluations, leveraging data to refine valuation methods, and supporting leadership in decision-making efforts. The role demands expertise in player analysis, proficiency with analytical tools, and a sound grasp of valuation frameworks. This person will consult with key contributors across multiple departments, collaborating with Scouting leadership, Analytics, and Systems teams, to drive continuous improvements in information, evaluations, valuations, and decision-making processes, ultimately enhancing the overall efficiency and effectiveness of the Amateur or Pro Scouting operation.

The Acquisition Specialist is a remote role. We have openings on both the Amateur Domestic Scouting and Pro Scouting teams. Candidates will have a chance to state their preference but are not guaranteed placement on their preferred team.

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW(S):
The Amateur Domestic Scouting department is primarily responsible for improving organizational talent through the Rule IV Draft and UDFA signing process. The Amateur Domestic Scouting department strives to be best in class at identifying, evaluating, and valuing amateur baseball talent through a relentless commitment to our process and our people. This includes, but is not limited to creating well-rounded scouting practices, building relationships, leveraging R&D for process support, developing strong staff education frameworks, and establishing sound decision-making processes.

The Pro Scouting department is responsible for evaluation, information synthesis, valuation analysis, and decision-making recommendations for player acquisitions across all professional leagues, including: Major & Minor Leagues, Independent Leagues, and Professional Winter Leagues. The department collaborates across baseball ops domains to leverage organizational knowledge and help drive decisions of professional players across all acquisitions avenues.

RESPONSIBILITIES:

• Participate in the implementation and improvement of processes across several areas of the acquisition operation, focusing on advancements in workflow, evaluative methods, decision-making support, and staff development.
• Utilize analytical tools to identify and prioritize prospects that require further analysis to ensure high-confidence and completeness of information, evaluations, and valuations.
• Leverage analytical tools and models to provide QC/QA feedback and identify areas for further research and development.
• Make informed recommendations on valuation approaches and apply valuation outputs to decision-making processes.
• Partner with Systems and Analytics teams to develop, refine, and optimize scouting tools.
• Evaluate a high volume of players using video analysis and select live-look targets, integrating all available data for comprehensive evaluation.

COMPETENCIES:

• Ability to interact deeply with predictive modeling groups and analytical outputs to integrate and apply to decision-making processes.
• Command of valuation frameworks and principles, and the ability to collaborate inter-departmentally to iterate and improve applied valuation methodologies.
• Experience with and aptitude for player analysis and evaluation (subjective and objective) and a knowledge of baseball markets across acquisition spaces, transactional/operational areas, and other domains
• Ability to apply evaluation and valuation expertise in the respective planning and decision-making processes.
• A strong understanding of and ability to relate to the demands, challenges, and needs of both field and office staff
• Command of end-to-end processes that power decisions and ability to contribute to improvements; ability to design effective and efficient processes within the Amateur Domestic Scouting or Pro Scouting department and inter-departmentally, and to act as a strong resource for leadership in the planning and execution of departmental priorities.
• Ability to connect with and respect people from different backgrounds and cultures, including players, families, coaches, agents, trainers, and others.

ADDITIONAL QUALIFICATIONS:

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.

Colton Cowser is a leading contender for American League Rookie of the Year honors, and his power numbers are among the reasons why. The 24-year-old Baltimore Orioles outfielder has 20 home runs to go with a .240/.321/.431 slash line and a 115 wRC+. San Diego’s Jackson Merrill (23) is the only rookie in either league to have left the yard more times.

That Cowser is clearing fences with some regularity is in many ways unsurprising. At a listed 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, his build is that of a basher. That said, his profile going forward wasn’t entirely clear when he was first featured here at FanGraphs in February 2022. Drafted fifth overall the previous summer out of Sam Houston State University, Cowser had propelled just a pair of baseballs over outfield barriers in 149 low-level plate appearances. Moreover, as I related to him in our offseason conversation, Baseball America had recently cited his “impressive walk-to-strikeout ratio,” adding that his swing path is “presently more geared toward contact versus power.”

The numbers suggest that Cowser is no longer the same style of hitter. After having more free passes than Ks in college and in his first taste of professional action, the left-handed-swinging slugger has fanned a team-worst 157 times this season with a 30.5% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. He’s also hitting more balls in the air, as evidenced by his 38.2 FB%. That number was just 26.9 in his two-plus years down on the farm.

Cowser’s thoughts on making less contact as he settles in to what promises to be a productive MLB career? Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Tight playoff races, milestone and award chases, and looking ahead to the offseason — these are the things I love about September baseball. One of the first decisions to be made after the World Series is determining who will receive qualifying offers, which currently projects to be valued at $21.2 million.

As a quick reminder before we continue, the qualifying offer is set at a price of the mean average annual value of the 125 highest-AAV players in the league. Once it’s offered to a player, he has 10 days to decide whether to accept or decline the offer. If the player accepts, he’s locked into 2025 at that salary, though he can always negotiate a contract extension that may override the qualifying offer. If the player declines and signs with a new team, his new team will forfeit at least one 2025 draft pick, and his old team will receive exactly one ’25 draft pick.

With less than three weeks left in the regular season, let’s run through which pending free agents could be getting qualifying offers come November.

Locks to Receive Qualifying Offers

These decisions are all straightforward. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Max Fried, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, Teoscar Hernández, and Sean Manaea (once he exercises his opt out) are all having seasons somewhere between strong and elite. They’re all sure to reject the offer in favor of longer-term deals.

Likely to Receive, Plausible to Accept

Paul Goldschmidt is a tough act to follow, but Christian Walker has done well since taking over for him after the Diamondbacks traded Goldschmidt to the Cardinals in December 2018. Walker has been especially great the last three years, with 10.9 WAR, a 122 wRC+, and excellent defense at first base. He’s not spectacular, but he’s very good, and if the Diamondbacks are fine with running a record payroll again, they’d be wise to keep him around.

Walker’s got one big drawback, though: his age. Next year will be his age-34 season, and while he’d certainly like to earn a multi-year deal in free agency, the qualifying offer might tamp down his market to the point that accepting it would net him more money in 2025. He also might not want to risk rejecting it, hanging out on the open market for months, and then having to sign a prove-it deal. He’s a core member of a team that went to the World Series last year, is almost certainly going to return to the playoffs again this season, and is built to contend next year, too. Additionally, he seems comfortable in the desert. For all of these reasons, he is probably the player most likely to return to his team on a qualifying offer.

Likely to Receive, Likely to Reject

Tyler O’Neill has popped 30 home runs in his best and healthiest season since 2021, with his wRC+ just one point away from tying that career year. On the surface, that makes him seem like a slam dunk to receive the qualifying offer, and a slam dunk to reject it. He’s entering his age-30 season, and coming off his strong performance this year, he could look to get a three- or four-year deal on the open market. The one thing that gives me pause, though, is O’Neill’s injury history and how that might influence teams’ willingness to offer him a multi-year deal worth an average annual value of roughly $20 million. Understanding this, if the Red Sox give O’Neill the qualifying offer, he could decide it’s in his best interest to accept it. Meanwhile, Boston might not want to pay him $22.1 million next year, instead opting to use that money to bolster other areas of its roster. I still think the Red Sox will extend him a qualifying offer, and that he will turn it down, but it’s not a sure thing.

There’s an argument to be made that Michael Wacha is having the best season of his career; it’s definitely his healthiest since 2017. Provided he avoids injury the rest of the way, he’ll eschew his $16 million player option in favor of hitting the open market once again, leaving the Royals with a tough decision. On the one hand, this version of Wacha is worth $22.1 million; on the other, the injury concerns don’t just go away just because he’s been mostly healthy this year. As unlikely as Wacha would be to accept, the Royals might also prefer to eliminate any chance that he’d do so and instead allocate that money to lengthen their lineup. Having a rotation anchored by Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo would make losing Wacha an easier pill to swallow.

Total Toss-Ups

If Ha-Seong Kim had reached free agency before this season instead of after it, he probably would have earned a deal of at least $100 million following his 4.3 WAR, 110 wRC+ campaign in 2023. But right shoulder inflammation could keep him on the sidelines for the rest of the season, and his run values as a hitter, fielder, and baserunner have all gone down considerably in 2024. That said, even in this down year, he’s put up 2.6 WAR and is still only 28; that is probably worth $22.1 million. However, considering the Padres have a glut of infielders already, they may not want to give Kim the option to accept a qualifying offer.

Luis Severino is having his healthiest season since 2018, when he put up 5.4 WAR across 191 1/3 innings, made the All-Star team, and received Cy Young votes as the ace of the Yankees. But he’s a completely different pitcher now than he was then. His velocity is still there, but he no longer has the swing-and-miss stuff to anchor a rotation. Even with the Mets expected to lose two other starters to free agency, I don’t think they’d want to pay him the salary of a no. 2 starter when, at this point, he profiles more like a no. 3 or 4.

There may be no starter in the league more enigmatic than Nick Pivetta. The stuff has always been great, but the command has been … less so. I’m of the opinion that he’d do surprisingly well on the open market, and in my head I’m comparing him to Yusei Kikuchi, who got three years and $36 million from the Blue Jays coming off a similarly uneven (and probably worse) few years. But the Red Sox already have Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito (assuming he recovers well from internal brace surgery) locked into next year’s rotation, and they may invest the $22.1 million elsewhere.

Unlikely to Receive

For other teams, I’d say that it would be a no-brainer to extend Shane Bieber a qualifying offer, but $22.1 million is a lot of money for the Guardians. If Bieber were to accept it, he could represent 20% or more of their payroll for 2025, and he might not be available until the second half of the season anyway after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. Considering his track record and how well he pitched in his first couple starts of the season, a multi-year deal at a lower average annual value — with the cash backloaded pretty heavily — should be easy for Bieber to secure.

There aren’t any pending free agent relievers with the pedigree of Josh Hader, who was an obvious qualifying offer recipient and rejector last offseason. Clay Holmes started his season pitching like he’d end up receiving one, but he’s lost his closer job and has probably worn out his welcome in New York, frankly. On the other side of the coin is Jeff Hoffman, who’s been nothing short of excellent for two seasons in Philadelphia. But he’s entering his age-32 season and doesn’t have nearly the track record of other relievers who have received qualifying offers in the past. I’d be shocked if he gets one.

Ineligible to Receive

As a reminder, players who’ve appeared for multiple teams in the same season are ineligible to be tendered a qualifying offer. That eliminates Kikuchi and Jack Flaherty. Also ineligible are players who’ve received one in the past, so that rules out Joc Pederson, Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi (assuming he declines his player option), Cody Bellinger (ditto), and, should he opt out, Gerrit Cole.