When we talk about teams not taking advantage of the best seasons of their stars, there’s no better example than Mike Trout and the Angels. You could make a 90-win team by simply building a .500 team around Trout, and yet the Angels have been able to do this only once with their center fielder. But they’re hardly the only team to fritter away the prime of top talent. Enter the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies can hardly be called a grand failure on the field, having won 87 and 91 games in 2017 and ’18, making the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history. But you could also argue that it’s a team that you can say underperformed those win totals, especially last year. The 2018 Rockies won 91 games, but that was with two legitimate Cy Young and MVP contenders; after successfully doing the hard part and finding legitimate stars, they’ve repeatedly failed to put a halfway competent team around those stars.

To illustrate this, here is team WAR from 2017, 2018, and 2019 (through July 29) outside of a team’s top two position players and top two hitters. As noted above, the Rockies have done as good job finding high-end talent as any team in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

Like Nomar Garciaparra before him, Troy Tulowitzki had the primary attributes of a Hall of Fame shortstop. He dazzled us with his combination of a powerful bat, good range, sure hands, the occasional spectacular leap, and a strong and accurate arm while making a case for himself as the position’s best. And like Garciaparra, Tulowtzki has been forced away from the game in his mid-30s after a seemingly endless string of injuries, leaving us to wonder what might have been. The 34-year-old shortstop announced his retirement in a statement released by the Yankees last Thursday.

Tulowitzki’s Yankees career lasted just five games, a blink of an eye compared to the 1,048 he played for the Rockies, or even the 238 he played for the Blue Jays. He wound up a Yankee after being released by Toronto in November 2018, that following a full season spent on the sidelines recuperating from surgery to remove bone spurs in both heels. The Blue Jays cut him while he still had $38 million in guaranteed salary remaining on the 10-year, $157.75 million deal he signed back in November 2010. Given that he would cost his next employer no more than the minimum salary, interest in him was heavy following a December showcase, with as many as many as 16 teams reportedly interested. Read the rest of this entry »

A number of years ago, Boston sports-TV anchor Bob Lobel used to say of former Red Sox players excelling for other teams, “Why can’t we get players like that?” Similar words are currently being uttered in Detroit, in regard to James McCann. In his first season with the Chicago White Sox, the 29-year-old catcher is slashing a robust .320/.378/.519, and he’s already gone deep nine times.

McCann wasn’t nearly that good with the stick in his four-plus years with the Tigers. When he signed with the ChiSox in December — a bargain-basement one-year deal for $2.5M, no less — he was a .240/.288/.366 career hitter. How did he suddenly morph into an offensive force?

“Honestly, the biggest thing for me this year is that I’m trying to be the best James McCann,” is how the Tigers castoff explained it prior to a recent game at Fenway Park. “I’m staying within myself and not trying to do too much. I’m taking my base hits the other way — I’m taking my singles — and not trying to hit the impossible six-run homer.”

The breaking-out backstop trained with Rangers infielder Logan Forsythe over the offseason — both live just south of Nashville — and as McCann pointed out, each has played with some great hitters over the course of their careers. Not that attempting to emulate one’s more-talented peers is always the best idea. Read the rest of this entry »

Last month, I wrote about Ian Desmond’s improved swing. For two seasons, Desmond hit ground balls at the highest rate in baseball, which is generally not the mark of a successful hitter. That is especially true in the current era of “elevate and celebrate.” Desmond was not elevating and thus rarely celebrating, even while playing most of his games in Coors Field.

Things changed this season, and for the better. Desmond had an average launch angle of 0 degrees in both 2017 and 2018, but has raised that mark to 7.8 degrees in 2019. His barrel rate has increased as a result, and he’s hitting for much more power: His .236 ISO is a career high.

When I first wrote about Desmond, the results weren’t yet there. On May 15, the day before publication, he sported a .218/.285/.411 slash line. His 64 wRC+ ranked 159th among qualified hitters, and his -0.4 WAR ranked 166th. While the underlying numbers were still encouraging at the time, Desmond was not yet seeing results. Read the rest of this entry »

A year ago, Kyle Freeland had a very good season. For some, it was almost too good. Here at FanGraphs, Freeland put up a 3.67 FIP, and playing half his games in Colorado meant a 4.2 WAR in over 200 innings and one of the 10 best pitching seasons in the National League. Freeland’s ERA was even better than his FIP, and with a 2.85 mark, his RA/9WAR was 7.5, the fifth-best mark in all of baseball. The distance between his ERA and FIP likely created a gap between those who believed Freeland was one of the best pitchers in baseball and merely a good one. The latter group thought that Freeland was in for some regression this year. After a rough two months, including time on the injured list, Freeland has been dispatched to the minors. That’s not regression. Allow me to explain.

Before being sent down, Freeland had a 6.37 FIP, a 7.13 ERA, and had given up 16 homers in 12 starts after giving up 17 in all of 2018. After last season, it’s possible some were expecting another sub-three ERA, but doing so would have been unrealistic. Expecting some regression might have meant that Freeland’s BABIP would go up from the .285 where it was a year ago and his LOB% would go down from 83%. Those numbers wouldn’t affect his 3.67 FIP, but it might take his ERA closer to his FIP. Maybe Freeland’s 8.5% HR/FB would creep up closer to average, leading to a higher FIP and ERA. In fact, projections considered many of those factors and forecast Freeland for a roughly average season with an ERA and FIP around 4.50. If regression had come for Kyle Freeland, that might have been what it looked like. If Freeland were pitching just like last season, we might expect a similar FIP and worse ERA. The problem is that Freeland isn’t pitching like he did last season. This isn’t regression (or reversion). This is Kyle Freeland being not as good of a pitcher as he was a year ago.

Freeland is a command lefty who excelled last season by pitching to his spots. In late 2018, Jeff Sullivan wrote about how good Freeland’s command had been all season, using multiple heat maps. We’ll engage in a similar exercise below, showing Freeland last year and this year. First, here are all of his pitches in 2019 compared to all of his pitches last season:

Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Colorado Rockies. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Vanilla Pitchability
Alfredo Garcia, LHP
Will Gaddis, RHP
Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP

All of these guys project to be able to take a turn in a rotation if needed, and some may cement themselves as backend starter types. Garcia is 19 and missing bats at Low-A while sitting 90-93 with an average changeup and curveball. He generates plus-plus extension. Gaddis has 45 stuff and had 60 command projection as an amateur, but the strikes have backed up. Kilkenny had Tommy John last summer and may not toe a pro affiliate’s mound until he’s 23 next year.

Young Developmental Sleepers
Bladdy Restutiyo, INF
Walking Cabrera, RF
Daniel Montano, OF
Yolki Pena, OF
Shael Mendoza, 2B
Cristopher Navarro, SS

Restutiyo is an athletic, projectable infielder who is currently playing several positions. Cabrera is a traditional right field profile with some power, arm strength, and a big, skinny frame that should add lots of good mass. Pena is just a physical projection teenager who also walked a lot last year. Montano has quick hitter’s hands but may not do enough with the bat to profile in a corner. Mendoza has pop but has regressed on defense; Navarro has a good glove but has regressed with the bat.

Bench Types
Dom Nunez, C
Yonathan Daza, OF
Sam Hilliard, OF
Roberto Ramos, 1B
Brian Mundell, 1B

Nunez is crushing Triple-A. He can catch, he walks, and the rest of his tools are 40s. Hilliard has huge power but can’t touch lefties at all. Ramos and Mundell have Quad-A traits.

Relievers
Rico Garcia, RHP
Reid Humphreys, RHP
Raymells Rosa, RHP
Alfredo Martinez, RHP
Shelby Lackey, RHP

Garcia is starting right now, but his 93-96 and average secondaries project in the bullpen. Humphreys sits 92-95 and has an average breaking ball. Rosa is a loose, athletic 21-year-old who sits 93-94 with an average breaker. Martinez touches 96 and has an above-average curveball. Lackey was a late round draft pick who has been up to 98.

System Overview

The list of recent, early-round Rockies pitcher draftees is terrifying. Peter Lambert is working out. Pint is teetering. David Hill, Javier Medina, Mike Nikorak, Robert Tyler, Mitch Kilkenny, and Ben Bowden have all had injury problems, and 2017 fourth rounder Pearson McMahan is listed on milb.com as having been released already. That’s a lot of misses early in the last few drafts. On some level, this is damning. But look at the 40-man roster and you’ll see that an overwhelming majority of the talent on a competitive club was developed from within. Are the Rockies good at this or not? It depends on how you look at it.

They frustrate scouts, though. The Rockies are notoriously difficult to ply information from, even when it seems logical and in their interest to disseminate that info — like accurate rosters for the backfields, pitching probables, etc. — in the minds of opposing scouts. Is it in a team’s best interest for other teams to like their prospects? Scouts would say yes, but the Rockies don’t always behave as though they think that’s true.

Can we identify talent acquisition trends? The pitchability college arm has been a popular early Day 2 option for Colorado, though it hasn’t really yielded much lately. Up-the-middle performers have panned out well (Hampson, Rodgers, Vilade, and Vavra look good). Last year’s DSL group, which is currently in extended spring training, is deep and interesting. One or two players from that group could emerge as a 45 FV or better this year, though the lack of an AZL affiliate means this group will either need to face Pioneer League pitching or head back to the DSL for the summer, even though they’re age-appropriate for Arizona.

It remains one of the game’s unsolved mysteries. A batter hits a pop-up near the mound and the person closest to it — a professional athlete wearing a glove — isn’t expected to catch the ball. Moreover, he’s not supposed to catch the ball. That job belongs to any one of several teammates, all of whom has traversed a greater distance. As often as not they’re climbing a slope to get under the descending baseball.

Chaos can ensue as the infielders and the catcher converge. The multiple “I’ve got its,” are drowned out by crowd noise and suddenly what should be a routine out becomes an adventure. We’ve all seen it. A bumper-car-like collision occurs and the catch is made clumsily… or not at all.

Just last week, Red Sox right-hander Rick Porcello was charged with an error when he failed to catch a pop up in front of the mound. Not because of ineptitude, but rather because he was veritably mugged by his catcher as the ball was about to arrive comfortably in his glove.

Why aren’t pitchers expected to handle simple pop-ups? They’re perfectly capable, so it makes sense that they should be catching them. Right?

“I don’t know why, and yes, they should be,’ said Seattle’s Perry Hill, whom many consider the game’s best infield instructor. “They’re on on the field of play when the ball is in play, so they should be able to make a play. It’s practiced in spring training. That little short pop-up that nobody can get to. The third baseman is playing way back. The first baseman is way back. The pitcher is the closest guy to the ball. He’ll catch that ball.”

Scott Servais sees it somewhat differently than his first base coach. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rockies’ addition of top prospect Brendan Rodgers — No. 1 in Colorado’s system, No. 28 overall — to their big-league roster completes part of a journey that seemed preordained when Rodgers was still just a high school underclassman. As is the case with lots of prominent Floridian high schoolers, Rodgers was evaluated early thanks to the endless parade of both varsity and travel baseball in Florida. Scouts were interested in Rodgers very early, as Kiley noted in his initial 2015 draft rankings.

Rodgers was a standout last summer with scouts saying he’d go in the top 50 picks as a high school junior, then he took a huge step forward this summer when his bat speed and raw power jumped at least a notch, if not two.

Those rankings, which Rodgers topped at the time, were produced after the high school summer showcase season, during which Rodgers looked fine at shortstop and continued to perform against the best pitching in the country. There were tepid evaluations of his defense and some concerns, from model-driven clubs, regarding his advanced age. But Rodgers’ offensive consistency and mix of physical talents (he had among the best raw power in the class at the time) overrode those notions.

When draft day arrived, Rodgers ranked No. 2 on the FanGraphs draft board. The Rockies drafted him No. 3 overall. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Rockies signed Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70 million deal in December of 2016, they did so with the intention that he’d be their first baseman for the foreseeable future.

At the introductory press conference, general manager Jeff Bridich expressed his excitement to bring the two-time All-Star aboard.

“A couple of years ago, we started talking about versatility and athleticism becoming a priority for this organization, along with getting veterans of character,” Bridich had said at the time, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “[Desmond] represents all of that, and that is the exciting thing.”

Unfortunately, in Desmond’s first two seasons with Colorado, the results weren’t there. In 2017, Desmond hit .274/.326/.375 and a 69 wRC+ across 373 plate appearances. Despite being signed for the purpose of playing first, Desmond spent the majority of his inaugural season with the Rockies in left field, where he struggled to post positive results (-4.7 UZR in 557.1 innings). All in all, he was worth -0.8 WAR.

The following season told a similar story. Over 619 plate appearances, the slash line (with a particular emphasis on power) was slightly improved at .236/.307/.422 and a 81 wRC+, but officially sliding into a full-time role at first base was not helpful (-2.5 UZR in 1,158 innings). That, plus a poor positional adjustment, killed Desmond’s overall output for a second consecutive season. He put up -0.7 WAR.

Those two paragraphs represent a brief summary of Desmond’s first two seasons with the Rockies. Clearly, they haven’t been great. And, after a quick look at his 2019 numbers, it appears we are seeing more of the same. Through games on Tuesday, Desmond has had 132 trips to the plate this year, slashing .208/.273/.400 with a 62 wRC+. If anything, Desmond’s offensive production looks more substandard than it has been over the past two years. Considering the numbers we’ve seen already, to think that he could be even worse is alarming. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Yohan Ramirez, RHP, Houston Astros
Level: Hi-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: NR   FV: 35
Line: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 8 K

Notes
Ramirez has been up to 97 and is sitting 92-95 while making heavy use of an above-average curveball. Spinwise, he averages about 2300 rpm on his heater, and 2500 on the curve, which is relatively tame for Houston prospects. His changeup is a distant, tertiary offering. He’s K’d 30 in 20 innings so far, but looks like a two-pitch relief candidate at most.

Zach Plesac, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Level: Double-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: HM   FV: 35
Line: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 9 K

Notes
Plesac’s velocity is up. He sat 90-94 in college and was back in that range following Tommy John, but this season his fastball is averaging about 94 and bumping 97. His changeup is plus, and he is throwing a lot of strikes, something that he didn’t do as an amateur. There’s still not a great breaking ball here and that might limit Plesac’s role, but he’s starting to look like a near-ready bullpen option, at least. Cleveland continues to do quite well developing college changeup artists.

Rico Garcia, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Level: Double-A   Age: 25   Org Rank: tbd   FV: 35
Line: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 11 K

Notes
Garcia will sit 93-96 and touch 97 early in outings but lose command and zip later in starts. There are a variety of opinions about Garcia’s delivery, as one source thinks his deliberately paced mechanics are easy for hitters to time, while another thinks Garcia hides the ball really well. He’ll flash an above-average changeup and slider, and shows an ability to manipulate the fastball to sink and cut at various times. He’s more of a middle relief candidate than potential rotation piece, but it appears Colorado has found a big league piece in the 30th round.