The Pirates have had a rough go of it. After notching three straight Wild Card berths from 2013 to ’15, they saw their production tail off and haven’t made the postseason since. In that time, they also had the second-best pitching staff by ERA and the fourth-best by FIP thanks to a league-leading 51.3% groundball rate. Their rate of burning worms was 2.8 points higher than the second-place Dodgers, the same distance between Los Angeles and the 10th-place Mets.
The Pirates accomplished this by throwing sinkers at a 23.2% clip, separating them from the second-ranked Guardians by 5.5 points, about the same distance between Cleveland and the 10th-place Angels. Coupled with pitch-framing improvements and a move toward more strategic infield positioning, the Pirates experienced a pitching leap that theScore.com’s Travis Sawchik chronicled in Big Data Baseball. This did wonders for a number of hurlers, namely Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, and Edinson Volquez. But others, such as Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole, only blossomed upon leaving the Steel City.
Pittsburgh’s pitching apparatus isn’t viewed as revolutionary any longer, but they’ve had a solid record with crafty lefties in recent years — think Rich Hill, Tyler Anderson, and Jose Quintana. Marco Gonzales, acquired from the Mariners (via the Braves) along with cash in exchange for a player to be named later, will hope to join that group. Perhaps the soft-tossing southpaw — who, like the Pirates of the 2010s, relies primarily on inducing weak contact — will be the one to reignite something in the Steel City forges. Read the rest of this entry »
The appetizers have been cleared. The waiters have brought out new plates and utensils. There was a long wait between courses, something in the kitchen perhaps; Tom Colichio wouldn’t be pleased. But it’s time for the entree: the Yankees have acquiredJuan Soto from the Padres in exchange for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and Kyle Higashioka. New York is also getting Trent Grisham in the deal. Soto and the Bombers have been linked all offseason, but it seemed like San Diego might hold off on a move until Shohei Ohtani signed with an eye toward marketing Soto to the teams who missed out. Instead, the Yankees jumped the queue and acquired perhaps the best hitter who was available this winter, whether by trade or free agency.
You already know the deal with Soto. He’s a modern-day avatar of plate discipline who won the Home Run Derby a few years ago. He’s walked more frequently than he’s struck out in each of the last four seasons while launching 104 homers. His 159 wRC+ is the fourth-best in the majors since the start of the 2020 season, behind new teammate Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, and Mike Trout. His .431 on-base percentage laps the field; Freddie Freeman is second at .410. He’s durable, to boot: he started 160 games this year and pinch-hit in the other two. Read the rest of this entry »
The Yankees have been pursuing a left-handed corner outfielder all winter. They’ve telegraphed their willingness to trade, and trade multiple pitchers at that, to get their target. Last night, they did what they set out to do – at least, as long as you’re willing to take my words exactly literally. Sure, he’s not Juan Soto, but Alex Verdugo is now a Yankee, after the team traded Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert, and Nicholas Judice to the Red Sox.
For Yankees fans who have been following the sound and fury around a Soto trade in the last week, acquiring Verdugo almost feels like a joke played by Brian Cashman. “Oh, you wanted to improve our offense and get us some more left-handed hitting? Here you go! I did exactly what you asked for!” It’s not so different than your parents telling you that you don’t need to buy Lucky Charms at the grocery store because you have some at home, only to see a box of Generically Fortunate Oat-Shapes in the pantry when you run inside to check. Read the rest of this entry »
Rule no. 1 of MLB’s Winter Meetings: Beware of water features. Nashville’s Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center, which for the next three days will serve as Vatican City for dudes in quarter zips and running shoes, contains within its expansive halls an artificial river. I’m in the process of putting together a bounty pool to see if we can get a writer to fall in the drink by the end of the week, but so far everyone’s stayed dry.
Nobody has suffered the fate of this legendary unfortunate, who absentmindedly stumbled into a Dallas hotel fountain in 2011, live on MLB Network. I’d like to propose — with the understanding that this might be controversial — that face-planting into a water feature would’ve been a more productive use of Jerry Dipoto’s Sunday evening than what he actually got up to.
Up in Seattle, the Mariners had a problem. Eugenio Suárez, who the team initially acquired as salary ballast in the trade that brought them Jesse Winker, was due to make $11 million next year – $13 million if you count a buyout on a team option for 2025. This wasn’t a huge problem – Suárez had been solid since joining the team, racking up 7.3 WAR in two seasons – but for a club whose payroll has bounced around between $110 million and $140 million in recent years, it’s a sizable chunk of the puzzle.
What’s more, Jerry Dipoto telegraphed the team’s intention to favor long-term budget sustainability over short-term upgrades in his now-infamous 54% remark. Dipoto apologized for the tone of those comments – “doing the fans a favor” is just not a good way to phrase things – but the broad point was hard to miss. The Mariners are committed to building their team for the long run on their own terms, which seems to mean prioritizing payroll savings and cost-controlled players wherever possible. Read the rest of this entry »
For the second time this calendar year, Luis Urías has been traded in a one-for-one swap for a right-handed pitcher from the 2019 draft class. This time, it’s the Mariners hoping to help the former top prospect turn things around and rediscover the skills that made him an above-average contributor in 2021 and ’22. In exchange, they’re sending 26-year-old Isaiah Campbell to the Red Sox. The righty reliever made 27 appearances for Seattle this past season.
Urías was a highly-touted prospect in the Padres organization in the mid-2010s, but after a slow start to his major league career (an 80 wRC+ and 10 errors in 83 games), San Diego shipped him off to Milwaukee for a change of scenery in November 2019, picking up Trent Grisham in the process. It was with the Brewers that Urías finally broke out; after another poor performance in 2020, he posted a 111 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR across 269 games in 2021 and ‘22. Thus, even with Willy Adames locked in at shortstop, middle infield prospect Brice Turang knocking on the big league door, and veteran third baseman Brian Anderson joining the fray in free agency, Urías looked like a key piece of the team’s future. His glove didn’t stand out at any one position, but he could hold his own at second, third, and short, allowing the Brewers to plug him in all around the infield.
Urías was Milwaukee’s Opening Day third baseman in 2023, but unfortunately, a hamstring injury kept him off the field for all of April and May. He returned to a more crowded infield picture in June: Owen Miller had been red-hot over the past month, Andruw Monasterio was hitting well in his first week of big league action, and Anderson still boasted a 102 wRC+ on the season despite having slowed down after a strong start. Moreover, Turang was struggling but still needed regular playing time if the Brewers were going to keep him in the majors, and Adames was nearing his return from a short stint on the 10-day IL. Urías stumbled that month, going just 8-for-51 with three extra-base hits, and the Brewers – who, at that time, were still in a close division race – had little patience for his struggles. He was optioned at the end of the month in favor of Turang, who was hitting well at Triple-A after a brief demotion of his own.
Ultimately, that would mark the end of the road for Urías in Milwaukee. Seemingly lacking optimism that he could return to form at the big league level, the Brewers flipped him to the Red Sox at the deadline in exchange for 22-year-old
pitching prospect Bradley Blalock. Things got better in Boston, as one could’ve expected. Not only was Urías further removed from his hamstring injury, but his .179 BABIP with the Brewers was bound to improve. He never got back to his peak from 2021 to ‘22, but he posted a 98 wRC+ with the Red Sox over the final two months of the season.
With that in mind, it’s somewhat surprising to see Boston give up on Urías so quickly. After his poor performance in 2023, he isn’t going to earn a sizable raise in arbitration; the projections at MLB Trade Rumors suggests he’ll earn the exact same $4.7 million salary in 2024. Even if he never reaches his full potential, a versatile infielder who can provide league-average production with the bat is a valuable player to have on the roster. Consider Whit Merrifield and Amed Rosario, whom our contract crowdsourcing estimates have earning two-year deals worth $16 million and $18 million, respectively. To that end, it’s not as if the Red Sox are overflowing with infield talent, nor is the free agent market. Rafael Devers has third base on lock, and Trevor Story should be the starting shortstop, but second base remains a question mark. Boston has internal options, but none with the experience or high ceiling of Urías.
It’s certainly possible the Red Sox are planning to pursue Rosario, Merrifield, or Tim Anderson, but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has already spoken about the internal options, and it looks like Enmanuel Valdez is likely to be the starting second baseman on Opening Day. Valdez hit for a 102 wRC+ in 49 games last season, playing second base and a sprinkle of shortstop, and presumably, the Sox think they can get similar production to Urías at a pre-arbitration salary. Veteran utilityman Pablo Reyes (another former Brewer) and speedy shortstop prospect David Hamilton figure to get some reps at the keystone as well, especially the right-handed Reyes, who could serve as the short side of a platoon with the lefty-batting Valdez.
If the Red Sox have faith in Valdez (or a plan to sign an upgrade), this isn’t a bad move. After all, while Urías is only a year removed from a 110 wRC+, there are reasons to be concerned about his bat. His best skill is his plate discipline; from 2021-22, he posted a walk rate 23% higher than league average and a strikeout rate 9% lower than the average hitter. His 0.53 walk-to-strikeout ratio ranked among the top 20 qualified hitters in the National League. Strangely enough, his 11.9% walk rate in 2023 was actually a career high, but it’s difficult to imagine that the way he got there was sustainable. While Urías swung significantly less often in 2023, he was far more likely to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. As a result, he posted a career-high called strike rate and a career-high whiff rate. By and large, hitters should keep the bat on their shoulders more often, but if a hitter is going to be selective, he has to be selective in the right way. Moreover, his slightly above-average power fell off too, and even if you want to blame it all on his injury (he hit the ball harder as the year went on), Urías has developed something of a reputation as an injury-prone player. Over the last two years, he has gone on the IL with strains to his hamstring, calf, and quad.
What’s more, it’s not as if the Red Sox gave up Urías for nothing. Seattle has developed a stable of talented pitchers in recent years, and Campbell was only expendable because the Mariners are so confident in their pitching depth. Indeed, Campbell, the first big league player born in Portugal since Frank Thompson of the original Washington Nationals, put up promising numbers in 2023, pitching well enough at Double-A to earn the call to join one of baseball’s best bullpens in July. Although his career got off to a slow start due to the lost 2020 season and an elbow surgery in 2021, the righty quickly established himself as a legitimate big league bullpen arm after pitching to a 1.57 ERA and 3.04 FIP over the last two minor league seasons. His pitches are a little difficult to classify; what Pitch Info calls his slider, Baseball Savant calls a sweeper, and what Baseball Savant calls a slider, Pitch Info calls a cutter. Regardless of what you call it, however, his cutter/slider is a true weapon. He threw it about 38% of the time in 2023, holding big league batters to a .139 wOBA and .217 xwOBA. The pitch modeling systems agree that it’s a plus pitch, and combined with his high-spinning four-seam fastball, which sits 95 and tops out at 97.4 mph, Campbell has what it takes to hold down a spot in Boston’s bullpen. The Red Sox have some solid arms at the back end of their ‘pen, but they need depth, and this move helps to accomplish that goal.
As for the Mariners, they certainly didn’t need Urías – they already have a pair of right-handed utility infielders in José Caballero and Dylan Moore – but it’s clear that Seattle likes versatility and reclamation projects. Their 40-man roster already features several utility men, including Caballero, Moore, and Sam Haggerty, and Jerry Dipoto is no stranger to shopping for bounce-back candidates. Several players to get meaningful playing time in recent years have been in this middling bat/versatile glove mold, including Abraham Toro and Josh Rojas, who is penciled in for starting second base duty in 2024.
Those names might not inspire a ton of confidence, but still, the appeal of a player like Urías is clear. Besides, as the Mariners discovered this season, the safe choice isn’t always so safe – just look at how the Kolten Wong trade worked out. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Dipoto went in the opposite direction this time around. In fact, this could work out quite well for the Mariners, as long as they treat it like the gamble it is. Evidently, the Red Sox weren’t willing to risk a mere $5 million on Urías, and the Mariners could reap the rewards of spending a little extra cash to take him on. Besides, even if Urías isn’t anything more than a league-average bat and the weak side of a second base platoon, he isn’t a bad pickup, given the dearth of middle infield options on the free agent market.
That said, it’s worth stressing that while this might be a productive gamble, it’s certainly not the offensive upgrade the Mariners need to compete with the Astros and Rangers in the AL West. It remains to be seen if this trade is a sign of the Mariners flexing some financial muscle by scooping up a player another team didn’t want to pay or if it indicates that Dipoto plans to spend another offseason shopping in the bargain bin instead of pursuing more expensive options. Seattle could really benefit from adding a corner outfield/DH bat in free agency, and they have the payroll space to do so (they’re about $35 million below last year’s luxury tax payroll), but this front office has never spent big on a free agent position player before.
The Mariners are taking on the uncertainty in this trade, but ultimately, it’s the Red Sox who are taking a bigger risk. Boston, a team with no clear answer at second base, gave up a young, cost-controlled infielder who was a two-plus win player as recently as 2022. If Urías bounces back with the Mariners, Breslow could end up looking foolish in his very first trade as CBO.
Over the past 10 years, Urías has gone from unheralded international signing, to top prospect, to big league bust, to breakout hitter, to reclamation project. This is already the third time he’s been traded in his big league career. With that in mind, it can be hard to remember that he’s still young; Urías won’t turn 27 until next June. Indeed, he’s younger than NL Rookie of the Year finalist James Outman. In other words, he still has time on his side. His days as a top prospect are far behind him, but his top prospect potential hasn’t disappeared, and the Mariners will hope to help him reach that ceiling in 2024.
The non-tender deadline isn’t usually an event that screams star power. The players involved are pre-free agency, making them cheap and controllable — qualities that appeal mightily to big league GMs. So if there’s even a question about whether a player is worth retaining or trading, as opposed to cutting loose, that usually means the player is neither good nor particularly promising.
Late Thursday night, after the final horn had sounded on the last West Coast NHL game, new White Sox general manager Chris Getz consummated his first trade in his new role, sending sinker-balling lefty reliever Aaron Bummer to Atlanta for a five-player variety pack of “second division” players and reclamation projects. The new White Sox are headlined by 26-year-old 2019 All-Star righty Michael Soroka, 28-year-old infielder Nicky Lopez, and 25-year-old lefty starter Jared Shuster, all of whom can be reasonably expected to impact the 2024 squad. Chicago also acquired 25-year-old infielder Braden Shewmake, who is also on the 40-man roster, and 2023 undrafted free agent starter Riley Gowens, who is more of a developmental project from the University of Illinois. Read the rest of this entry »
Earlier today, the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers made a swap ahead of this year’s 40-man roster deadline, the last day teams have to either add eligible minor league players to their 40-man roster or expose them to December’s Rule 5 Draft. In this trade, the Brewers acquired 26-year-old second baseman Oliver Dunn and added him to their 40-man roster, while the Phillies received two prospects in return, 21-year-old infielder Robert Moore and 20-year-old outfielder Hendry Mendez.
Let’s start with Milwaukee’s end of this, as we’re most likely to see 2024 big league impact from Dunn, who is coming off an Arizona Fall League stint in which he won the league’s Breakout Prospect award. Dunn, whose brother Ross is in the Twins system, was a Yankees 2019 11th round pick out of Utah. He hit .196 coming out of the lost 2020 season, and spent a significant portion of both 2021 and 2022 on the IL dealing with multiple injuries, including a fractured jaw, an abdomen strain, and a hamstring strain.
The Phillies drafted him in the minor league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft and Dunn had a huge power breakout in 2023 at Double-A Reading, where he hit .271/.396/.506 and slugged 21 homers, more than he had hit throughout his entire career entering 2023. Reading is a hitter’s haven and Dunn was in his age-25 season, so there are good reasons to be skeptical of his sudden change in output, but his underlying power metrics also took a leap, with his average and peak exit velocities (92 mph and 112 mph, respectively) cresting above the big league average. This isn’t gigantic, impact power, but it’s meaningful pop for a second baseman. Dunn swings and misses quite a bit, especially within the strike zone (you can see him struggling with velo up and away from him, a Fall League theme for Dunn, in the video below), but he’s a dangerous all-fields hitter because of his power and ability to catch some fastballs deep in the hitting zone and punish them the other way. Read the rest of this entry »
In the five days between the World Series and the start of free agency, there’s plenty of paperwork to do — exercising or declining options, sorting out 40-man roster spots, that sort of thing — before a team starts the offseason in earnest. Sometimes, that shuffling reveals a landing spot for a player who was going to be turned loose anyway, and we get a trade.
Mark Canha, your friendly neighborhood on-base machine, is headed from Milwaukee to Detroit, with 25-year-old Double-A reliever Blake Holub headed in the opposite direction. Read the rest of this entry »
