A year ago, Kyle Freeland had a very good season. For some, it was almost too good. Here at FanGraphs, Freeland put up a 3.67 FIP, and playing half his games in Colorado meant a 4.2 WAR in over 200 innings and one of the 10 best pitching seasons in the National League. Freeland’s ERA was even better than his FIP, and with a 2.85 mark, his RA/9WAR was 7.5, the fifth-best mark in all of baseball. The distance between his ERA and FIP likely created a gap between those who believed Freeland was one of the best pitchers in baseball and merely a good one. The latter group thought that Freeland was in for some regression this year. After a rough two months, including time on the injured list, Freeland has been dispatched to the minors. That’s not regression. Allow me to explain.

Before being sent down, Freeland had a 6.37 FIP, a 7.13 ERA, and had given up 16 homers in 12 starts after giving up 17 in all of 2018. After last season, it’s possible some were expecting another sub-three ERA, but doing so would have been unrealistic. Expecting some regression might have meant that Freeland’s BABIP would go up from the .285 where it was a year ago and his LOB% would go down from 83%. Those numbers wouldn’t affect his 3.67 FIP, but it might take his ERA closer to his FIP. Maybe Freeland’s 8.5% HR/FB would creep up closer to average, leading to a higher FIP and ERA. In fact, projections considered many of those factors and forecast Freeland for a roughly average season with an ERA and FIP around 4.50. If regression had come for Kyle Freeland, that might have been what it looked like. If Freeland were pitching just like last season, we might expect a similar FIP and worse ERA. The problem is that Freeland isn’t pitching like he did last season. This isn’t regression (or reversion). This is Kyle Freeland being not as good of a pitcher as he was a year ago.

Freeland is a command lefty who excelled last season by pitching to his spots. In late 2018, Jeff Sullivan wrote about how good Freeland’s command had been all season, using multiple heat maps. We’ll engage in a similar exercise below, showing Freeland last year and this year. First, here are all of his pitches in 2019 compared to all of his pitches last season:

Read the rest of this entry »

Draft Week rolls on with breakdowns of all the picks from Day 1. We don’t do grades, as it would be silly to project how these picks are going to work out five-plus years from now the day after they happen, and because you can get a sense of our opinion of a pick from our rankings and the tone of our comments. As you can see above, there will be a podcast reviews Days 1 and 2 with a couple of minutes spent on each team, then a notebook wrap-up of the odds and ends we’ve heard when the draft concludes. For more complete reports and tool grades on these players, head over to THE BOARD.

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Alex Cobb, Ryan O’Rourke, and Carl Willis — on how they learned and developed their splitters.

———

Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles

“I started throwing it in high school. When you’re that age, you’ll see things on TV and try to replicate them — kind of like Backyard Baseball. I thought a splitter sounded cool, so I split my fingers on the baseball, got some action on it, and got some good results with it. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about whether it would make sense for one team to “blow up the draft” by ignoring the bonus slotting system for one year, paying a premium for the top amateur talent, and incurring the maximum financial penalty. Then they discuss Ben’s new book about baseball’s player-development revolution, The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players, which is out today. (Go get it now!)

Audio intro: The Tragically Hip, "Machine"
Audio outro: George Harrison, "Try Some, Buy Some"

Link to Passan on the MLB draft
Link to first excerpt from The MVP Machine
Link to Foley’s book-signing event
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Here is our final mock draft. You can see the rest of our Draft Week content on the widget above. For those picks where we think it’s down to two guys, we’ve made note of it.

First Round
1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Alternative: Vaughn
2. Royals – Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (TX)
3. White Sox – Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal
4. Marlins – J.J. Bleday, RF, Vanderbilt
5. Tigers – Riley Greene, RF, Hagerty HS (FL)
6. Padres – C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
Alternative: Langeliers
7. Reds – Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU
Alternative: Langeliers
8. Rangers – Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (TX)
Alternative: Manoah
9. Braves – Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor
Alternative: Carroll
10. Giants – Hunter Bishop, CF, Arizona State
Alternative: Stott
11. Blue Jays – Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia
12. Mets – Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV
Alternative: Thompson
13. Twins – Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech
Alternative: Cavaco
14. Phillies – Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (TX)
15. Angels – Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (CA)
Alternative: Thompson
16. D’Backs – Corbin Carroll, CF, Lakeside HS (WA)
17. Nationals – Matthew Allan, RHP, Seminole HS (FL)
Alternative: Kirby
18. Pirates – Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
19. Cardinals – Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky
Alternative: Wilson
20. Mariners – Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington
Alternative: Kirby
21. Braves – Kameron Misner, RF, Missouri
22. Rays – Will Wilson, 2B, North Carolina State
23. Rockies – Michael Busch, 1B, North Carolina
Alternative: Toglia
24. Indians – George Kirby, RHP, Elon
25. Dodgers – Daniel Espino, RHP, Premier Academy HS (GA)
26. D’Backs – Matthew Lugo, SS, Beltran Academy HS (PR)
27. Cubs – Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane
28. Brewers – Hunter Barco, LHP, Bolles HS (FL)
29. A’s – Kyren Paris, SS, Freedom HS (CA)
30. Yankees – Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton HS (NJ)
31. Dodgers – Kyle Stowers, RF, Stanford
32. Astros – Matt Wallner, RF, Southern Mississippi

Compensation Picks
33. D’Backs – Blake Walston, LHP, New Hanover HS (NC)
34. D’Backs – Tyler Callihan, 3B, Providence HS (FL)
35. Marlins – Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson
36. Rays – Brooks Lee, SS, San Luis Obispo HS (CA)
37. Pirates – Gunnar Henderson, SS, Morgan Academy HS (AL)
38. Yankees – Drey Jameson, RHP, Ball State
39. Twins – J.J. Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (TX)
40. Rays – Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy HS (FL)
41. Rangers – Nasim Nunez, SS, Collins Hill HS (GA)

Second Round
42. Orioles – Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State
43. Red Sox – Cameron Cannon, 3B, Arizona
44. Royals – Ethan Small, LHP, Mississippi State
45. White Sox – Maurice Hampton, CF, Memphis University HS (TN)
46. Marlins – Josh Smith, SS, LSU
47. Tigers – Dominic Fletcher, CF, Arkansas
48. Padres – Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell
49. Reds – Sammy Siani, CF, William Penn Charter HS (PA)
50. Rangers – Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M
51. Giants – Drew Mendoza, 3B, Florida State
52. Blue Jays – Tommy Henry, LHP, Michigan
53. Mets – Brady McConnell, SS, Florida
54. Twins – Ethan Hearn, C, Mobile Christian HS (AL)
55. Angels – Chase Strumpf, 2B, UCLA
56. D’Backs – Nick Quintana, 2B, Arizona
57. Pirates – T.J. Sikkema, LHP, Missouri
58. Cardinals – Aaron Schunk, 3B, Georgia
59. Mariners – John Doxakis, LHP, Texas A&M
60. Braves – Matt Cronin, LHP, Arkansas
61. Rays – Jordan Brewer, CF, Michigan
62. Rockies – Michael Toglia, 1B, UCLA
63. Indians – Yordys Valdes, SS, McArthur HS (FL)
64. Cubs – Trey Faltine, RHP, William Travis HS (TX)
65. Brewers – Jamari Baylor, SS, Benedictine HS (VA)
66. A’s – Kyle McCann, C, Georgia Tech
67. Yankees – Rece Hinds, RF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
68. Astros – Isaiah Campbell, RHP, Arkansas
69. Red Sox – Ryne Nelson, RHP, Oregon

Compensation Picks
70. Royals – Hudson Head, CF, Churchill HS (TX)
71. Orioles – Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Butler
72. Pirates – Josh Wolf, RHP, St. Thomas HS (TX)
73. Padres – Dasan Brown, CF, Abbey Park HS (CAN)
74. D’Backs – Davis Wendzel, 3B, Baylor
75. D’Backs – Erik Miller, LHP, Stanford
76. Mariners – Tyler Baum, RHP, North Carolina
77. Rockies – Bryce Osmond, RHP, Jenks HS (OK)
78. Dodgers – Spencer Jones, 1B/LHP, La Costa Canyon HS (CA)

Below you’ll find a roundup of notable moves from the past few days, as well as future expected moves and a Minor League Report, which includes a list of recent major league debuts and a few players who are “knocking down the door” to the majors. For this column, any lineup regulars, starting pitchers, or late-inning relievers are considered “notable,” meaning that middle relievers, long relievers, and bench players are excluded. You can always find a full list of updated transactions here.

Lineup Regulars

Arizona Diamondbacks
6/3/19: OF David Peralta activated from 10-Day IL.

Peralta isn’t close to his 30-homer pace from last season, but he’s still been very good with a .309/.357/.524 slash line, seven homers and 16 doubles in 207 plate appearances. He’s right back in the middle of the Diamondbacks lineup on Monday, batting third and playing left field after missing the last 11 games with a shoulder injury.

Depth Chart | Roster Resource Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Clint Frazier has made significant contributions to a banged-up Yankees team that sits atop the AL East with a hefty 38-20 record, but his performance in Sunday night’s game against the Red Sox in the Bronx was the stuff of which nightmares are made. You know, the kind in which you not only can’t stop doing that thing you’re not supposed to do, but you’re doing it in directly in front of 40,000 people emotionally invested in your success or failure, not to mention the millions more watching on television all around the world. The 24-year-old right fielder misplayed three balls in the late innings that helped to blow open a close game, the latest manifestations of his ongoing defensive woes.

Frazier’s misadventures began in the seventh, with the score 3-2 in favor of the Red Sox following a battle between former Cy Young-winning southpaws David Price and CC Sabathia. With reliever Luis Cessa on the mound, one out, and Michael Chavis on first base following a forceout, Frazier failed to keep Eduardo Nunez’s single in front of him. The ball rolled all the way to the wall, resulting in a two-base error that scored Chavis:

Read the rest of this entry »

As a baseball fan, winning feels great and losing feels awful. When teams win in dull fashion, fans are generally content to take the wins even if they aren’t all that thrilling. The Astros, Twins, and Dodgers are blowing teams out on a regular basis, but those wins aren’t causing too much consternation. But on the other end of the spectrum are teams that lose a lot of games and fail to provide much excitement during those contests. These are the bad teams that fall behind early and don’t give too much reason in terms of wins and losses to keep following the game. By combining a team’s winning or losing ways with how important at-bats tend to be, we can determine the most exciting team in baseball, as well as the most miserable club.

To determine how often teams have tension-inducing moments, we can take a look at Leverage Index (LI). Our glossary says “Leverage Index is essentially a measure of how critical a particular situation is. To calculate it, you are measuring the swing of the possible change in win expectancy.” A game’s LI starts at 1.0, and the more meaningful plate appearances gets, the higher the index rises; if plate appearances become less meaningful, the index goes lower. Leverage Index shows up on our Play Logs and is on the bottom of our Win Expectancy graphs. Here’s one for Game 3 of last year’s World Series:

The bars along the bottom identify the biggest moments of the game, even if something big doesn’t show up on the scoreboard. For teams, we are dealing with more than a thousand plays at this point in the season. If we take the average LI of every play, we can see if teams have a tendency to have a decent number of important moments during their games or if things are decided relatively early, with the players playing out games with little chance of changing the outcome. Read the rest of this entry »

Jerry Dipoto broke a nearly two-week trade drought over the weekend, sending outfielder Jay Bruce and everyone’s favorite player, cash considerations, to the Philadelphia Phillies. In return, the Mariners received 1B/3B/OF prospect Jake Scheiner.

As with most Mariners, Bruce started the season with impressive power numbers, hitting seven home runs in the team’s first 13 games. There was a period earlier this season when home runs represented seven of Bruce’s nine hits, an unusual balance even for a one-dimensional power hitter in these home run-filled times. As a fan of unusual baseballings, I will cheerfully admit that I was kind of hoping for that to continue. At one point in April, Bruce held a .204/.298/.673 line. To put that into perspective, only four seasons in history among qualified batters have featured a SLG-OBP difference greater than 300 points.

Bruce’s flirtation with a 400-point difference early was way more fun to me than the usual “Joe So-and-So is on pace for 324 homers!” stuff. A race to topple Mark Reynolds for Mendoza Line-superiority in home runs (32) and slugging percentage (.433) could have been my song of the summer. Unfortunately, Bruce’s homer-pace slackened and he started hitting the occasional single. That has been enough to turn his 2019 into a more typical “middling power hitter” tune.

While I don’t think that anyone believed the Mariners were even close to being the best team in baseball — save for a couple of excited Mariners fans in my Twitter timeline — a 13-2 start gave Seattle some hope for a more interesting summer than expected. After all, this is a team that was forecasted to be on the dull side, but more blandly mediocre than unfathomably terrible. The best recent comparison would be the 2014 Milwaukee Brewers, another team that just wasn’t very good, but after a blazing 20-7 start and a 6 1/2 game lead, had enough of a cushion to be relevant into late summer.

Instead, Seattle unwound their hot start with impressive speed. Since the 13-2 start, the team’s gone 12-35, essentially ending any potential for a shocking run at the AL West title. To find a worse 47-game run for the Mariners, you have to look back to 1980, during the Dark Times of Seattle history. Bruce Bochte led the team in homers that year, crushing…uh…13 dingers, and the starting shortstop was the actual Mario Mendoza.

Once the 2019 version of the team was out of contention, the question became when Seattle would start selling rather than if. Bruce was always one of the best bets to go quickly if another team needed his services, not having been acquired by Seattle because of any burning desire to have him on the roster but as a balancing act to make the money in the Edwin Diaz–Robinson Canó trade satisfy both sides of the transaction. The Mariners may not have planned to give Daniel Vogelbach a serious look, but the Kyle Seager injury had a domino effect on the roster, sending Ryon Healy to third and Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion to first, opening up a spot for Vogelbach. The early demotion of Mallex Smith resulted in Mitch Haniger playing center field with more regularity, and that defensive combination allowed the team to fit Vogelbach, Bruce, Encarnacion, and Healy into the lineup simultaneously.

That gave the Mariners a lot of homers, but it turned out to be a not-so-good development for the team’s fielding. Through Monday morning, the Mariners are last in the majors in DRS (-50 runs) and UZR (-35 runs). Amusingly, Ichiro still leads M’s outfielders in UZR, at 0.2 in 10 innings.

Once everyone started shuffling back to their proper positions, Bruce was demoted to a semi-platoon role. He now follows another veteran acquired as salary makeweight from the Mets trade, Anthony Swarzak, out of town.

Bruce is a better fit with what the Phillies need. While the team’s left-handed hitters have combined for a wRC+ of 98 in 2019, it’s largely because of the existence of Bryce Harper. Odúbel Herrera’s arrest for domestic violence and uncertain return left the team in search for some left-handed hitting outside of Harper, and an extra outfielder. Ideally, Nick Williams would have been the best option to get increased playing time, but he has had an abysmal 2019, hitting .159/.205/.232 with a single homer as a part-timer. One can argue, probably correctly, that Williams likely has higher upside than Bruce, but things have changed in Philadelphia in the last couple of years. A team in contention and a rebuilding team ought to look at risk in different ways.

Bruce will likely continue in the semi-platoon role, as a fourth-outfielder who spells the regulars and plays a corner against a tougher righty when Scott Kingery isn’t in the lineup. Citizens Bank is a place where Bruce’s power, his only real remaining strength at this point, will shine. He is no longer the young semi-star he was in his early days with the Reds, but at this point of Bruce’s career, nobody’s really expecting that anymore. As a role player for the Phillies, Bruce will do his part to help the team hang onto first place.