Just under two weeks ago, when I was writing a piece connecting the unsigned players from among our Top 50 Free Agents list to teams that appeared to have needs, Wade Miley came off the board by signing a one-year deal with the Astros. A similar thing happened in writing that piece’s sequel, covering a handful of the best of the unranked and unsigned free agents, as Brett Anderson pre-empted the publication by re-signing with the A’s on a one-year deal. He’ll cost a pittance, as he’s guaranteed a modest $1.5 million, with another $1 million possible in undisclosed incentives.

Though it feels like he’s been around forever, Anderson just turned 31 on February 1. That said, the 2006 second-round pick by the Diamondbacks (out of high school in Stillwater, Oklahoma) has already spent parts of 10 seasons in the majors. I should emphasize the word parts there because, well, we’ve rarely seen a whole season from him. As a rookie with the A’s in 2009 — a season in which he entered ranked seventh on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list — he made 30 starts and threw 175.1 innings en route to 3.5 WAR. But only once since then has he started 30 times in a major league season. Hell, only once since then has he even reached 20 starts in the bigs: in 2015, he completed a solid 31-start, 180.1-inning campaign for the Dodgers (3.69 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.6 WAR). Read the rest of this entry »

Rocco Baldelli knows Charlie Montoyo well. Not only did they spend the last four seasons together on Tampa Bay’s coaching staff, but Baldelli once played for the 53-year-old Montoyo in the minors. Minnesota’s new manager counts Toronto’s new manager as both a mentor and a friend.

Not surprisingly, Baldelli was effusive in his praise when I asked him about Montoyo. Citing his experience and leadership skills, he opined that the Blue Jays are getting “a tremendous manager and a great person.” Fittingly, Montoyo was hired on October 25, the same day his 37-year-old protege was tabbed by the Twins.

Baldelli wasn’t caught by surprise when he heard the news from north of the border. He knew that Montoyo had interviewed with the Cincinnati Reds, and that he would soon be doing the same with Toronto. The second of those sit-downs obviously went well. Mere days after meeting with him, the Blue Jays announced Montoyo’s hiring.

All told, five candidates went through the interview process in Toronto. Baldelli didn’t want to go on the record as to whether he was one of them, but he did allow that his post-season vacation plans were put on hold for a period of weeks. Multiple teams met with him about their openings. That was to be expected. The “future-manager” tag was assigned to him by myriad members of the media over the course of the 2018 season. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

The Rays are similar to the St. Louis Cardinals in that they’re almost always one of the highest-floor teams in baseball. Since the team’s breakout season in 2008, which saw them reach the World Series, they’ve only really had one season that you could reasonably call lousy, the 68-94 campaign in 2016. Otherwise, Tampa’s been middling at worst, with a stretch of high-70s/low-80s wins that in large part reflects some draft struggles.

Since 2009, the Rays have only really hit on two players in the draft: Kevin Kiermaier and Blake Snell. Now, the jury is still out on some of these drafts, especially the more recent ones, but it’s hard for a team with Tampa Bay’s revenue model — and given some of the surrounding issues, they’re one of the few teams that really does seem to struggle financially — to compete consistently without drafts paying off. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is our list of the top-100 prospects in baseball. The scouting summaries were compiled with information provided by available data, industry sources, as well as from our own observations.

Note that prospects are ranked by number but also lie within tiers demarcated by their Future Value grades. The FV grade is more important than the ordinal rankings. For example, the gap between prospect No. 5 on this list, Victor Robles, and prospect No. 35, Sean Murphy, is 30 spots, and there’s a substantial difference in talent there. The gap between Travis Swaggerty (No. 56) and Adrian Morejon (No. 86), meanwhile, is also 30 numerical places, but the difference in talent is relatively small. You may have noticed that there are more than 100 prospects in the table below, and more than 100 scouting summaries. That’s because we have also included 50 FV prospects who didn’t make the 100; their reports appear below, under the “Other 50 FV Prospects” header. The same comparative principle applies to them.

As a quick explanation, variance means the range of possible outcomes in the big leagues, in terms of peak season. If we feel a prospect could reasonably have a best big league season of anywhere from one to five WAR, that would be “high” variance, whereas someone like Colin Moran, whose range is something like two to three WAR, would be “low” variance. High variance can be read as a good thing, since it allows for lots of ceiling, or a bad thing, since it allows for a lower floor. Your risk tolerance could lead you to sort by variance within a given FV tier if you feel strongly about it. Here is a primer explaining the connection between FV and WAR. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

You’ll also notice that this year, we’ve added probable FV outcome distribution graphs for each prospect on our list. This is our attempt to graphically represent how likely each FV outcome is for each prospect. Using the work of Craig Edwards, we found the base rates for each FV tier of prospect (separately for hitters and pitchers), and the likelihood of each FV of outcome. For example, based on Craig’s research, the average 60 FV hitter on a list becomes a perennial 5+ WAR player over his six controlled years 26% of the time, and a 27% chance of accumulating, at most, a couple WAR during his six controlled years. We started with these base rates for every player, then manually tweaked them to reflect how we think the player differs from the average player in that FV tier, since a player in rookie ball and a player in Triple-A with the same FV grade obviously don’t have exactly the same odds of success. So, these graphs are based on empirical findings, but with the subjectivity of our opinions included to more specifically reflect what we think the odds are of various outcomes. This is just a concept we’ve been kicking around for a while, one we hope to continue to refine to try to better communicate things about prospects.

Read the rest of this entry »

Among the proposals exchanged by MLB and the MLBPA was the idea of studying the mound. More specifically, baseball is interested in studying what might happen were the mound to be lowered, or were the mound to even be moved back. In a sense, adjusting the mound might seem radical, but of course, the mound has been lowered before, and baseball wants to see if it might be able to combat the ever-increasing strikeout rates. The league-average strikeout rate in 1998 was 16.9%. A decade later, it was 17.5%. Yet a decade later than that, it was 22.3%. That’s a 27-percent increase in strikeouts over the course of ten years. You can see why people might want to nip this in the bud.

Why have strikeouts been on the rise? How might you explain all the swinging and missing? I suppose there are the people who might just grumble the term “launch angle” and leave it at that, but a more compelling explanation might be the league-wide increase in velocity. It’s been hard not to notice — as they say, now every bullpen has a half-dozen guys who come out throwing 95 miles per hour. Billy Wagner used to throw 96. Now everybody throws 96. And the less time hitters have to react, the more often they’re going to whiff. Case closed! We’ve all solved it, together.

Except for the part where velocity has ceased increasing. The velocity surge was something I think a lot of us just took for granted. Teams like velocity, and players are training harder than ever before. But the surge has slowed, if not stopped. You don’t need to dig too deep to find evidence.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

On February 1, I checked in on the 10 players who made our Top 50 Free Agents list in November but had yet to sign contracts, attempting to match them up with teams still in need of that missing piece. Since then, the much-anticipated J.T. Realmuto trade has gone down, and the first camps have opened to pitchers and catchers, but none of those 10 players has come off the board. Instead we’re left with an endless swirl of rumors and rationalizations. Bryce Harper has talked to the Padres and Giants, but they don’t want to pay him $300 million! The Yankees have continued to check in on Manny Machado, but won’t improve upon an offer termed “low” by a source close to the player! Mike Moustakas may return to the Brewers! This is quite a party.

Alas, not really. It’s frustrating to watch this broken system playing out, and it has to be even more so for the players — not only the aforementioned ranked ones, but the dozens upon dozens beyond them who are being frozen out as well. These are real people who don’t know yet where they (and their families, in many cases) are going to spend the better part of the next year, and they’re being squeezed to the point of accepting a fraction of the money they might have reasonably expected just a couple of years ago. In many cases, the fates of these unranked, unsigned players are interconnected with the pricier options; a team in the market for rotation help, pursuing the likes of Dallas Keuchel (No. 4 on our list) or Gio Gonzalez (No. 33) might wind up going for one of the starters below if they don’t land their top choice.

As with my previous roundup, what follows here is an attempt to match the best of the rest of those currently unemployed with teams in need, using a combination our projected standings and Depth Charts, MLB Trade Rumors, Roster Resource, Cot’s Contracts, and some imagination. Consider it prescriptive, rather than predictive; the further down the pecking order one goes, the more one may as well be throwing darts. Read the rest of this entry »

Dustin Fowler may need to make an adjustment. The 24-year-old outfielder is coming off a rookie campaign that saw him slash an anemic .224/.256/.354, with six home runs, in 203 plate appearances. The Triple-A portion of his season was encouraging — a .310 BA and an .817 OPS — but his performance against big league pitching fell short of expectations. He went into the year ranked as Oakland’s No. 4 prospect.

He’d already made a notable adjustment. Prior to being acquired by the A’s in the 2017 trade deadline deal that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees, Fowler had lowered his hands at the urging of then hitting coach, P.J. Pilittere. The reason was twofold: the team that drafted Fowler out of a Dexter, Georgia high school felt it would help him tap into his power. Every bit as importantly, his left-handed stroke wasn’t consistently catching up to high-octane heat.

Fowler talked about the 2016 adjustment midway through last season.

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Dustin Fowler: “I hadn’t had much coaching growing up, so I was very raw. I’d just had small-town coaching — not the big coaching I needed — so going into pro ball was the first time I got some real one-on-ones on how to hit.

“I was very tall in my stance. I was upright, and my hands were over my head. Ever since grabbing a bat, I’d put them up there. My hand-eye coordination was good enough to make it work against pitching that wasn’t as good — slower pitching — but it worked less and less here. There’s a big difference from high school to pro ball. The pitches here harder, and I wasn’t catching up to balls. I was just fouling them off, or making fly-ball outs. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

Be very careful when scrolling down to look at the depth chart. The way these things work, the first thing you’ll see is the outfield, which is likely to remain an absolutely brutal mess, one that couldn’t even be half-solved by a Ronald Acuña/Juan Soto-esque rise to power by Heliot Ramos, one of San Francisco’s few top prospects. Let’s put it this way: ZiPS projects Rule 5 draftee Drew Ferguson to be arguably the best outfielder on the team, with two of the other top outfielders being a minor-league signing and a waiver claim from the Rangers. The good news is that most of the group actually projects above replacement-level, so there’s a weird amount of adequacy in terms of the depth, but the projections give absolutely none of the team’s current group a chance to have much of an upside.

Things get sunnier when you look at the infield, which is the primary reason the Giants are likely to still be projected above the Padres for one last run (though probably just for one, unless the Padres are notably unlucky or incompetent). ZiPS essentially projects improvement for all of the team’s infield starters, kind of a rarity given the generally justifiable grumpy conservativeness to which projections systems are prone. The quality of the infield lends itself well to the argument that the Giants probably ought to have won more games last year. Not enough to be a playoff team, mind you, but at least enough to tone down the bleakness.

The worrisome thing about the offense is that most of the highlight players are at ages where their downsides can still hit like a ton of bricks and fast, and there’s no counterbalancing breakout potential. To the team’s credit, they’ve given every indication they realize that the outfield is bit of a tire fire. The Giants were in on all of the Marlins outfielders last winter, brought in Andrew McCutchen for 2018 (before trading him to the Yankees), and are now courting Bryce Harper. If any team is able to convince Harper to sign a shorter-term contract, San Francisco seems like a possibility; a superstar season from Harper could get the team into plausible contention, given their outfield weakness. And time is of the essence — if the infield starters don’t bounce back, this team is absolute toast.

I am still confused as to the baseball purpose of Pablo Sandoval remaining on the roster. Did someone in the organization finish last in their fantasy baseball league, and this is their punishment?

Pitchers

Johnny Cueto could theoretically return in September, but I think the smart money is still on him not making an appearance until 2020. Which, in addition to being unfortunate for Cueto, is rather bad timing for the Giants, who are less likely to be playing meaningful games in 2020 than this year.

Madison Bumgarner only gets a two-WAR projection, but that’s over just 147 innings, due largely to his attendance over the last two seasons, when he’s missed time due to freak injuries, one caused by something somewhat unusual (a dirt bike), the other by something somewhat mundane (a line drive). Since no elbow or shoulders were involved, I’m more optimistic about Bumgarner getting back to the 200 inning range than the projections are, which would boost his WAR to around three. ZiPS projects Dereck Rodriguez to be roughly league-average, which will be disappointing to Giants fans after a season in which Rodriguez was one of the team’s few highlights, but he has a very short record track record and a low K rate, so ZiPS isn’t putting him on the Kyle Hendricks pile yet. He’s certainly unlikely to repeat the 0.68 HR/9, even playing in Oracle Park.

The bullpen isn’t flashy, but the front-end is solidly above-average, and the team’s depth projects as more than adequate for its needs. San Francisco has shown an ability to turn random pieces into good relievers, and has a solid record with reclamation projects, such as Sam Dyson.

Bench and Prospects

After Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, both likely to get official projections next year, the cupboard gets bare quickly. ZiPS does project Shaun Anderson to be a decent No. 3 starter for a time in his prime, and it has a long-term fascination with Conner Menez, but there’s just not much there there. Honestly, if the Giants had better prospects after their top two guys, I’d expect them to already have been traded for a starting pitcher. Most teams have a position player or two who ZiPS thinks projects better than the scouting reports indicate, but I’m just not seeing anybody here. Despite playing in the Pacific Coast League, Triple-A Sacramento only had one player who hit 15 homers (Chris Shaw).

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.