Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about minor-league pay, the surprising prospect past of Neil Walker, and the impending posting and pitching of NPB star Yusei Kikuchi. Then (13:43) they bring on Cubs Double-A outfielder Connor Myers to discuss his offseason job as a UPS driver, his baseball bonus and salary, making ends meet on a minor-league salary, mental skills, conditions with the Cubs, playing with Kris Bryant, being tracked by technology at both of his jobs, and more. Lastly (43:27), FanGraphs writer and author of The Cooperstown Casebook Jay Jaffe joins to preview Hall of Fame voting season, including newcomers (Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Andy Pettitte, Todd Helton), holdovers (Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Omar Vizquel, Gary Sheffield, Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner), the changing electorate, the new Cooperstown pitching baseline, and candidates from the Today’s Game ballot (Lee Smith, George Steinbrenner).

Audio intro: Jeff Buckley, "What Will You Say"
Audio interstitial 1: Elvis Costello & The Imposters, "The Delivery Man"
Audio interstitial 2: The Glands, "Possibilities"
Audio outro: The Black Angels, "Haunting at 1300 McKinley"

Link to story about phantom big leaguers
Link to Jeff’s Kikuchi post
Link to previous episode on minor-league pay
Link to Jay’s HoF preview post
Link to list of HoF-eligible hitters
Link to list of HoF-eligible pitchers
Link to Jay’s Today’s Game ballot intro post
Link to Ben on Halladay
Link to Ben on Smoltz vs. Mussina vs. Schilling
Link to Ben on support for Bonds and Clemens
Link to Mussina video
Link to EW Secret Santa sign-up

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UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 7
This is the seventh episode of a weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men. Below are some timestamps to make listening and navigation easier.

1:41 – Our plugs, because we wrote a lot in the last week or so

2:52 – TOPIC ONE: FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards on his prospect asset value research that was rolled out this week over four articles

5:45 – Jason Heyward vs. Ronald Acuna Jr. in terms of service time and using that to count WAR

10:58 – Adjusting FV grades throughout a prospect’s career and how Craig adjusted for that and positional bias

15:15 – Can we put a dollar value on variance?

19:00 – Can we apply this framework to big leaguers?

25:15 – Craig takes a flamethrower to new managing editor Meg Rowley

25:45 – TOPIC TWO: New FanGraphs managing editor Meg Rowley joins the show to talk about the dark side of prospect asset value and what’s going on with the Mariners

27:00 – Are we bad people? You decide! (Meg decided.)

28:50 – Meg drops a swear. (Meg didn’t.)

30:50 – Kiley tries to defend himself

35:45 – Scrooge McDuck is referenced

40:25 – Does baseball’s salary structure need to completely change?

47:55 – Kiley proposes an ignored market inefficiency

52:10 – Meg bums everyone out

52:33 – We try to sort out our feelings about Dr. Lorena Martin’s accusations against the Mariners

1:14:13 – TOPIC THREE: Lightning round!

1:14:50 – SUBTOPIC ONE: MLB’s PDP program for high school players is expanding; how does this affect middle and lower income high school players, prep pitcher’s health, data collection, multi-sport athletes and the scouting schedule at large?

1:26:45 – Will this increase the trend of having more non-scouts having input in draft rooms?

1:28:10 – SUBTOPIC TWO: Houston and Baltimore’s front offices hiring influx, where they stand with staffing, how they’re making decisions and what assets Baltimore should be moving in the short-term

1:46:17 – SUBTOPIC THREE: U. of Arkansas pitching coach Wes Johnson was hired to go straight to the big leagues as the Minnesota Twins pitching coach on Rocco Baldelli’s new coaching staff. Is this a new pipeline of high-end college coaches heading straight to MLB?

1:53:00 – The job that MLB teams are outsourcing to the internet

1:56:30 – A somber goodbye to our dearly departed Carson Cistulli

2:02:12 – Eric brings up our third bummer topic of the podcast

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 2 hr 2 min play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a Willians Astudillo strikeout (and Astudillo vs. other, more highly-touted Twins), the team-switching saga of Oliver Drake, and the singular skill of Nathan Eovaldi, then answer listener emails about changing the game to appeal to non-fans, the value of base-stealing, the odds of seeing gear from every team at one game, Allen Cordoba and the aftermath of the 2017 Padres’ Rule 5 extravaganza, Gareth Morgan and the highest strikeout rates, adjusting stats for the times-through-the-order effect, and modern pitcher usage compared to the gig economy, plus a Stat Blast about Derek Dietrich and the hitters with the highest hit-by-pitch rates.

Audio intro: Neko Case & Her Boyfriends, "Thanks a Lot"
Audio outro: Chris Thile, "Thanks for Listening"

Link to Jeff’s Eovaldi post
Link to Jeff’s Dietrich post
Link to Ben’s Padres Rule 5 post
Link to Shakeia Taylor on White Sox caps
Link to EW Secret Santa sign-up

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In 2017, Corey Dickerson was 28 years old, playing for the Rays. He spent a lot of his time at DH, but still, he was a solidly above-average hitter, and he finished as a 2+ win player. He had another two years of team control, and he was due for a raise in his second year of arbitration. During the offseason, though, the Rays designated Dickerson for assignment. Shortly thereafter, he was sent to the Pirates for a modest return. Part of the Rays’ thinking at the time was that they could easily replace Dickerson with C.J. Cron.

In 2018, Cron was 28 years old, playing for the Rays. He spent a lot of his time at DH, but still, he was a solidly above-average hitter, and he finished as a 2+ win player. He has another two years of team control, and he’s due for a raise in his second year of arbitration. On Tuesday, though, the Rays designated Cron for assignment. He might be traded or claimed any day. If the Rays receive anything, it will be a modest return.

It doesn’t look good when one of baseball’s cheapest franchises cuts ties with a player who’s due for a raise. It doesn’t look good when anyone cuts ties with a player coming off a legitimately productive full season. Cron’s projected salary for next year is only a little north of $5 million. By the numbers, he was worth more than that last season. Yet, as is usually the case, it’s not hard to figure out what’s happening, when you take a closer look. A variety of factors have come together to make Cron almost freely available.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here are brief notes on the prospects who were traded ahead of the 40-man roster deadline. The Padres had several prospects who needed to be added to the 40-man — including Chris Paddack and Anderson Espinoza — and were the most active team.

Cleveland gets:
Walker Lockett, RHP

San Diego gets:
Ignacio Feliz, RHP

Lockett will provide immediate rotation depth for a contending Cleveland team as a 5th/6th starter and will probably be on the 25-man bubble in the spring. His fastball, 91-94, is very average. He can also make it sink in the 87-90 range. Each of his off-speed pitches — a changeup and curveball — will flash above-average. His changeup has a tendency to sail a bit, but it moves.

I think Feliz, who turned 19 in October, was the best prospect traded today. He’s a very athletic conversion arm who can spin a good breaking ball. He was 88-92 with natural cut during the summer and should grow into more velocity. He’ll probably begin 2019 in extended spring training.

Boston gets:
Colten Brewer, RHP

San Diego gets:
Esteban Quiroz, 2B

Brewer was a minor league free agent signee after the 2017 season. He was up and down between San Diego and El Paso a few times in 2018, and was 92-94 with cut, up to 96. At times he’d take a little off and throw more of a slider around 87-88 mph. Brewer also has plus-plus breaking ball spin rates on an 82-85 mph curveball he doesn’t locate very well. If that improves, Brewer will be a good 40-50 inning relief option.

Quiroz is the most interesting prospect traded today. He was Team Mexico’s leadoff hitter in the 2017 WBC (he hit two homers and a double in 6 at-bats) and spent 2015-2017 crushing the Mexican League. He signed with Boston in November 2017 and had a hot April in 2018 at Double-A, but then missed three and a half months with an abdominal strain. He only played in 24 games at Double-A, then had 62 extra plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League.

Here in Arizona, Quiroz looked pretty good. He’s a stocky and strong 5-foot-6, and he has average, all-fields power. He hit two full-extension, opposite field shots this fall, including one that got out just left of center field at Sloan Park in Mesa. He’s patient and makes good decisions at the plate. He’s also fine at second base (below-average arm, below-average runner, above-average athlete, average hands) and played a lot of other positions while in Mexico. He’ll either need to be viable at other positions or just hit enough to play second base every day. It appears he has a chance to do the latter.

Cubs get:
Rowan Wick, RHP

San Diego gets:
Jason Vosler, 3B

Wick is a capable, generic middle reliever. He works 93-96, has an above-average slider, and a change-of-pace curveball.

Vosler is a an extreme fly ball hitter (over 50%) with huge platoon splits. He might be just a 30 bat, but Vosler can play third and first and he crushes lefties; I think he’s a corner bench bat or platoon player.

Colorado gets:
Jordan Foley, RHP

Yankees get:
Jefry Valdez, RHP

Foley was 91-93 this fall; his changeup and slider were average, and he struggled to throw strikes. He’s 25 and coming off a good year at Double-A.

Valdez didn’t sign a pro contract until he was 20, and Colorado didn’t push him to an age-appropriate level despite his success, so he’s a 23-year-old who hasn’t set foot in full-season ball. But he’s a really loose, wiry 6-foot-1 with a good arm action. He has been 92-94 with an above-average curveball in my looks. I like him as a late-blooming relief candidate.

Oakland gets:
Tanner Anderson, RHP

Pirates get:
PTBNL

Anderson is an average sinker, above-average slider righty reliever, who sits 92-95.

Patrick Murphy won’t be available in next month’s Rule 5 draft. Along with four other players, the 23-year-old right-hander was added to the Toronto Blue Jays’ 40-man roster yesterday. His addition was well-earned. A third-round pick in the 2013 draft, Murphy has been a picture of perseverance. As noted in the feature we did on him last February, Murphy has undergone Tommy John surgery, thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, and had a nerve moved in his elbow.

This season, he went from question mark to fast-mover. In 27 starts — all but one with High-A Dunedin — Murphy fashioned a tidy 2.64 ERA and fanned 141 batters in 152.2 innings. Those numbers earned him an accolade; Murphy was named the Florida State League’s Pitcher of the Year.

The innings total was especially meaningful to him, as was the fact that he made all of his scheduled starts. Calling it “a big step,” the Chandler, Arizona native was able to show the organization — and prove to himself — that his am and body could hold up over a full season.

He also showed that he could hit triple digits. But while he considered it “pretty cool” to have hit 100 mph on the radar gun, Murphy was more enamored with a pitch that traversed 60-feet-six-inches in a comparably meandering manner. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Major league baseball teams closely guard their financial information. They have no problem talking about how much money players make, but they prefer to be more circumspect when disclosing the revenue teams take in or the scale of the profits owners make after those players have been paid and expenses accounted for. Because baseball’s ownership is a fairly insular group composed mostly of individuals and privately held businesses– and because there relatively few franchise sales to use as gauge–teams have been largely successful in preventing their financial information from going public. The Atlanta Braves present an exception.

Liberty Media, perhaps best known for its subsidiary SiriusXM Satellite Radio, purchased the Braves in 2007 for $400 million. Two years ago, they began offering stock in their separate divisions, which means the public can buy shares in the Braves as well as the real estate holdings around the stadium. It also means that, as a publicly traded company, the public is entitled to more information regarding the team’s finances than is typical. As I wrote in 2016, the club disclosed an $18 million loss in 2014 before depreciation and amortization. They were on the plus side in 2015 by about three million dollars before recording losses of about $20 million in 2016. During those three seasons, the team averaged 90 losses, with an average annual attendance of 2.1 million fans and a payroll just over $116 million per season. The financial losses in 2016 were largely attributable to a huge international signing class, most of the players from which were later declared free agents after MLB’s investigation into Atlanta’s signing methods.

But focusing exclusively on a team’s year-by-year profits obscures the financial reality of owning a baseball team because it doesn’t address the most profitable aspect of team ownership: the value of the franchise. Based on the calculations above, the Braves lost about $45 million from 2014 through the end of 2016. But Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei has admitted profits weren’t always the main consideration for the Braves, indicating that “historically, the measurement was we didn’t lose money.” Maffei’s remarks are consistent with statements from another team owner, Rogers Communications, which owns the Toronto Blue Jays, though the Blue Jays’ financials are harder to trace because Rogers owns a whole host of assets along with the baseball team. Per Forbes:

The media giant’s CFO, Tony Staffieri, said at a conference that Rogers wants to “surface value” from the Blue Jays, which he said is a “very valuable asset for us that we don’t get full credit for.”

For the Blue Jays, “surfacing value” would likely come in the form of realizing the profits from selling the team, as Rogers might not be getting “credit” if the team isn’t reaping huge profits. Then there’s the matter of Rogers also broadcasting Blue Jays games, which might further cloud the revenues from the baseball team. (The Braves used to benefit from some of that same confusion back when Ted Turner owned the club and TBS showed Braves games, but the financial model has shifted, and the Braves now have one of the worst local television contracts in baseball.) It is clear the calculus of franchise ownership is more complicated than mere gate sales. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Tommy Milone and Willians Astudillo, Bryce Harper‘s awful fielding in 2018, two more examples of percentages greater than 100, and Adrian Beltre’s retirement and atypical, incredible career, then (23:34) bring on new FanGraphs managing editor Meg Rowley to talk about both sides of the Yankees-Mariners James Paxton trade, how good Paxton is, the Mariners’ future, the definition of acehood, and a few aspects of her new job, including anxiety about covering breaking news, the difficulty of replacing writers who get hired by teams, the balance between stats stuff and non-stats stuff, common writing pitfalls, representing (and extending opportunities to) women in a male-oriented industry, weekday vs. weekend website traffic, balancing writing and editing, and more.

Audio intro: Franz Ferdinand, "Darts of Pleasure"
Audio interstitial: Camera Obscura, "James"
Audio outro: Jerry Garcia & David Grisman, "Walkin’ Boss"

Link to Ben on Harper’s defense
Link to darts story
Link to Ben on Beltre
Link to Jeff on the Paxton trade
Link to EW Secret Santa sign-up

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