Another Reliever Off The Board

Teams searching for relief help this offseason don’t have quite as much depth to pore over as they did last winter, when 14 relievers signed deals for between $10 million and $30 million. Craig Kimbrel and Adam Ottavino were thought to be at the top of the reliever class and are still available, but after that, just nine other relievers made our Top 50 Free Agents list. Joe Kelly and Jeurys Familia got things moving for those nine last week. Andrew Miller came off the board last night. Jesse Chavez has already signed a deal for just $8 million guaranteed. Kiley McDaniel predicted that Kelvin Herrera and Cody Allen, who are both toward the end of our list, would also fall short of an eight-figure guarantee. Not much of the mid-tier remains, and yesterday, the A’s decided to enter the fray by signing Joakim Soria to a two-year, $15 million contract, per Jon Heyman.

Oakland’s bullpen played a big role in their run to the 2018 playoffs, putting up a 3.37 ERA, 3.91 FIP, and 5.7 WAR that ranked fifth in all of baseball. A great deal of that production is owed to the brilliance of Blake Treinen though Familia pitched well after his trade from the Mets. Lou Trivino, Ryan Buchter, Fernando Rodney, and Yusmeiro Petit also contributed. The latter four return next year, but with Familia heading back to the Mets, the A’s felt the need to bolster the back end of the pen.

Joakim Soria started last season with the White Sox after spending most of his career in Kansas City. He pitched well for Chicago, and then pitched well for the Brewers, earning a late-inning role on a relief-heavy team. He struck out 8 of the 22 batters he faced in the postseason, but some bad batted ball luck might have caused a .455 BABIP and four runs in 4.2 innings. As Eric Longenhagen noted in his free agent capsule, even at 35 years old in May, Soria should have something left in the tank.

The grim reaper still hasn’t come for Soria’s stuff. His 2018 strikeout rate (29%) represented his highest mark since 2009, and his fastball is harder now (92 mph) than it was then (90 mph). A rare four-pitch reliever, Soria’s pitch usage has fluctuated significantly year-to-year. After a changeup-heavy 2017, Soria returned to more frequent fastball use in 2018. All of his secondary pitches are plus, and Soria may still have a late-career junkballing phase ahead of him if the velocity ever starts going away. Despite his age, one could argue Soria’s track record and repertoire merit a multi-year deal.

Soria got that multi-year deal at the going rate for relievers. In the mid-priced tier, only Zach Britton and David Robertson remain. After those two, teams will either need to pay elite-level prices or go shopping in the bargain bin if they want a free agent reliever for next season.


Cardinals Hope Miller Rebound Can Provide Relief

The Cardinals missed the playoffs for the third straight season in 2018, and their bullpen was a major reason why. The unit ranked among the NL’s worst by multiple measures, despite the team’s substantial investment in the ever-volatile reliever free agent market. With little choice but to dive back in, the team has made an even more substantial investment, signing 33-year-old lefty Andrew Miller to a two-year, $25 million deal.

The full details, via The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal:

Both the $12.5 million average annual value and $25 million total are slightly above the two-year, $22 million estimates from Kiley McDaniel and our Top 50 Free Agents crowdsourcing project. From among the handful of reliever deals signed thus far this winter, Miller’s AAV surpasses Jeurys Familia‘s $10 million AAV deal with the Mets. That one is for three years, so it remains the largest, with Miller tied for second in total value with Joe Kelly’s $25 million, three-year deal with the Dodgers. If Miller falls short of 110 appearances — a level he reached in any pair of consecutive seasons from 2013-2017 — across 2019-2020, then his 2021 vesting option becomes a club option with the $2.5 million buyout. According to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, Miller had “a number of two-year offers in hand,” but the Cardinals evidently provided enough bells and whistles — not to mention the chance to win — for their offer to stand out.

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Nationals Get Anibal Sanchez To Replace Tanner Roark

The Nationals made one big move to bolster their rotation in signing Patrick Corbin. Soon after, they traded rotation mainstay Tanner Roark to the Reds for a relief prospect in Tanner Rainey. The move was slightly curious for a team that clearly wants to remain in the window of contention; Roark has been a league-average starter for some time now. One week later, the Nationals have their Roark replacement in Anibal Sanchez. A year ago, nobody wanted Sanchez, but some changes to his pitch-mix revived his career, and now the Nationals have rewarded those changes and the upside Sanchez brings over Roark with a two-year deal worth $19 million, as first reported by Anthony Fenech.

Sanchez’s deal also includes up to $4 million in incentives and a $12 million option for 2021, with a $2 million buyout, which is part of the $19 million guarantee. Because it’s the Nationals, there’s also some deferred money, with $2 million from both 2019 and 2020 due in 2021. Back in 2012, Sanchez was coming off two and a half solid years with the Marlins and a half season with the Tigers, averaging 3.6 WAR per season. The Tigers rewarded Sanchez with a five-year, $80 million contract in free agency. Sanchez responded with the best season of his career, posting a 2.39 FIP and a 2.57 ERA en route to six wins above replacement. He followed that season up with a solid, three-win campaign in 2014, though he did have two separate stints on the disabled list. In the final three years of his contract, Sanchez was below average, but did manage to pitch 415.2 innings. For their $80 million, the Tigers received 11.4 WAR, a reasonable outcome even if the performance was front-loaded.

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A Day Michael Brantley Missed Twice

The reason called strikes exist is that, at a certain point, the game wants hitters to get on with it. If we didn’t have called strikes, hitters could, and almost certainly would, let pitch after pitch in the strike zone sail by, content to wait as long as might be necessary for precisely the right one to arrive. How many pitches would it take before you’d start shouting at the hitter to get the bat off his shoulder and just swing already? 10? 20? 100? No need to find out. Baseball doesn’t have a clock; called strikes serve just as well. You get three pitches in the zone. Three pitches you should be able to do something with. Three pitches, then you’re out, and someone else gets to take their turn.

But of course major league pitches in the zone are still extremely hard to hit. Major league hitters, who become major league hitters, at least in part, by demonstrating a consistent ability to make contact with pitches inside the zone, usually whiff on about one out of every six or seven strikes they swing at. Mike Trout missed about one in every 10 last year. So did 2004 Barry Bonds. Even the very best of the very best miss on pitches inside the zone all the time. Which makes it all the more amazing that Michael Brantley, who is admittedly neither Barry Bonds nor Mike Trout, made contact with 97.3% of the pitches he swung at inside the zone last year. Now, he didn’t swing at pitches in the zone all the time; he was discerning, swinging at 65.8% of those pitches, a number that takes a few pages of the leaderboard to click over to. And not all of the contact he made was necessarily good contact. But it was a lot of contact. Indeed, it was, by a fair margin, the best mark in baseball.

When I first learned this particular fact, which was just a few minutes before I started writing this article, I almost immediately asked myself a question about Michael Brantley that I’m afraid may be rather unfair to the man: What happened on the 2.7% of pitches on which he missed?

Let’s go back to September 1, 2018. That was the day the Cleveland Indians were playing the second game of a three game series against the Tampa Bay Rays in Cleveland, and it was a day — the last of only five such days this year  — on which Michael Brantley swung and missed at more than one strike in a single game. I’d like to focus on the two he missed that day because they emphasize, I think, the utter improbability of not missing that same kind of pitch far more often. Here’s the first one (with some bonus Francisco Lindor):

That’s a good pitch. Blake Snell has a good slider. But it’s not like that pitch was extraordinarily outside the bounds of what big league hitters have to face every day. What Brantley probably should have done is to lay off of it, because the best he was ever going to be able to do was ground the ball weakly to the left side, or maybe pop it over the third baseman’s head and into left field. But that’s easy to say and very hard to do. When the ball comes out of Snell’s hand, it looks like it might end up somewhere just south of Brantley’s left elbow. Instead it ends up just south of the catcher’s left knee. This is part of what makes baseball hard. This is why only mis-identifying a pitch like this 22 times in a given season is, to me, stunning and worth writing about. Here’s another of those 22 pitches–the second Brantley missed that day (this time with bonus Donaldson content):

Here, you can see Brantley sigh a little bit. I’m not sure, but I imagine that’s because this is the same pitch he missed earlier in the game, from the same pitcher. That sigh is him recognizing that he had a whole three innings to think about what Snell did to him last time and he still wasn’t able to prevent it from happening again. That sigh, probably, is him recognizing that Blake Snell is an excellent major league pitcher and life just happens that way sometimes. And it’s the sigh of a man who’s come rather close to perfection in one particular skill in one particular game and has been reminded, if only for a moment, that actual perfection is probably unattainable.

I like baseball for a lot of reasons, but one big one is that its challenges are presented in discrete form, pitch by pitch. Pitches lead to plate appearances, plate appearances lead to outs, outs lead to innings, and innings lead to games. We can break the whole thing down into thousands of tiny moments and consider each moment separately. And players have that many more discrete moments in which to fail or succeed. Michael Brantley failed at one particular thing less often, on a rate basis, than any other player in baseball last year. He approached perfection in something that demands unimaginable skill to do well even once. He missed two pitches on September 1st, 2018, and they were fine pitches to miss. That he saw so many others like them this year and did not miss those is something to be proud of.


Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/21/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: The baseball chat that interferes with my ability to write about this morning’s three-team exchange!

9:07

AJ: Odds harper ends up in LA?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Based on nothing — 40%?

9:08

Xolo: Did the Rangers just give Profar away?

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JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Billy Wagner

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2016 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Billy Wagner was the ultimate underdog. Undersized and from both a broken home and an impoverished rural background, he channeled his frustrations into throwing incredibly hard — with his left hand, despite being a natural righty, for he broke his right arm twice as a child. Scouts overlooked him because he wasn’t anywhere close to six feet tall, but they couldn’t disregard his dominance of collegiate hitters using a mid-90s fastball. The Astros made him a first-round pick, and once he was converted to a relief role, his velocity went even higher.

Thanks to outstanding lower-body strength, coordination, and extraordinary range of motion, the 5-foot-10 Wagner was able to reach 100 mph with consistency — 159 times in 2003, according to The Bill James Handbook. Using a pitch learned from teammate (and 2018 ballot-mate) Brad Lidge, he kept blowing the ball by hitters into his late 30s to such an extent that he owns the record for the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher with at least 800 innings. He was still dominant when he walked away from the game following the 2010 season, fresh off posting a career-best ERA.

Lacking the longevity of fellow 2016 Hall of Fame ballot newcomer Trevor Hoffman, Wagner never set any saves records or even led his league once, and his innings total is well below those of every enshrined reliever. Hoffman’s status as the former all-time saves leader helped him get elected in 2018, but Wagner, who created similar value in his career, has major hurdles to surmount after receiving a high of 11.1% in three years on the ballot. Nonetheless, his advantages over Hoffman — and virtually every other reliever in history when it comes to rate stats — provide a compelling reason to study his career more closely. Given how far he’s come, who wants to bet against Billy Wags?

2019 BBWAA Candidate: Billy Wagner
Pitcher Career Peak JAWS WPA WPA/LI IP SV ERA ERA+
Billy Wagner 27.7 19.8 23.7 29.1 17.9 903 422 2.31 187
Avg HOF RP 36.8 25.7 31.3 26.3 18.1
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

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Daniel Murphy Finally Got to the Rockies

When last year’s Nationals got around to giving in, one of the players they moved was Daniel Murphy. Near the end of August, Murphy was flipped to the Cubs, who’d put in a claim on Murphy off waivers. It made plenty of sense that the Cubs would’ve had interest. It made less sense that the Rockies didn’t have interest. The Rockies were getting nothing from first base and left field, and compared to the Cubs, they had the higher waiver priority. But Murphy got by, and the rest was history. By which I mean, neither the Cubs nor the Rockies won the World Series. So it goes.

Just a few months ago, then, the Rockies decided Daniel Murphy wasn’t their man. And yet in this month, the Rockies have changed their mind. Yes, I get that circumstances now are different. But anyway, the Rockies have agreed to terms with Murphy on a two-year contract worth $24 million. Somewhat importantly, it sounds like Murphy is going to play first base, instead of second. Ian Desmond will get bumped to the outfield. Earlier, one could only dream of Murphy batting half the time in Coors. Now we’ll all get to see it in reality.

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FanGraphs Audio: Jeff Sullivan Learns About the Rodeo

Episode 848

Jeff Sullivan returns to FanGraphs Audio to reflect on the time spent he and the rest of the FanGraphs staff spent in Las Vegas for the Winter Meetings, discuss a few of the trades and signings that went on there, and also learn just how it is that rodeo cowboys get bulls to buck when they ride them. The answer will disturb you.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @megrowler on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 1 hr 4 min play time.)

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There Have Been Two Trevor Cahills

A couple days ago, the Angels signed Matt Harvey for a year and $11 million, with a small potential purse of incentives. And now today, the Angels have signed Trevor Cahill for a year and $9 million, with a smaller potential purse of incentives. Cahill is just a year older than Harvey is, and he’s coming off a superior season. But where Harvey threw 155 innings, Cahill threw just 110. And so Harvey’s contract is a little bit better.

As many of you already know, the main issue with Cahill is durability. Over the course of his career, he’s been on the disabled list eight separate times, and he hasn’t thrown 150 major-league innings since 2012. He hasn’t thrown 150 overall innings since 2013. The last two seasons alone, Cahill has dealt with (1) a strained lower back, (2) a strained right shoulder, (3) a right shoulder impingement, (4) a right elbow impingement, (5) a strained right Achilles, and (6) upper back discomfort. Cahill has hardly been the picture of health. It’s why he didn’t receive a multi-year commitment.

And yet, Cahill is only 30. He hasn’t experienced any velocity loss, and he actually throws harder now than he did when he was younger. And it might surprise you to learn that, for all of Cahill’s health issues, he’s never had surgery. Not that I could find a record of, anyway. He’s never had surgery on his shoulder. He’s never had surgery on his elbow. He’s never had surgery on his knee or his hip or his anything else. In this way, Cahill is different from Harvey. And the upside here is easy to spot.

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Eric Longenhagen Chat- 12/20/18

2:17
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, everyone. It’s been a while since we’ve chatted. I’ll spare you the list of links to things written since then and just remind everyone that fangraphs.com/prospects is where all of it ends up.

2:17
Mike: I know you hate when people compare prospect lists, but I’ve seen three top 10/30 lists for the Cubs and one Paul Richan was ranked #5 and the other two, he wasn’t ranked at all. Is there a wide range of opinions on him?

2:19
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think there is a wide range of opinions. I’d be surprised if anyone had an eval outside of the #4/5-6th starter range and I think the disparity in rankings comes from how various publications value that type guy, not the eval itself.

2:19
The West is Wild: The Diamondbacks will have a large bonus pool in 2019. Is there any kind of general trend of how teams with similarly large pools have strategized? This situation seems unique to me as their pool is big without having a top 5 pick…

2:22
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re kind of at the mercy of the talent structure of the draft class and where other teams with multiple picks select in relation to you. Like Philly had a ton of money in the Moniak draft but the tier of preps they wanted to spend the extra money on was scooped up by teams who had extra picks before their second one. Kansas City just kinda stuck to their board last year and got a bunch of good value college picks, they didn’t play games at all.

2:23
Eric A Longenhagen: There are countless scenarios and variables teams can’t control. What is best for ARI to do will be more obvious 4 months from now.

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