Read the rest of this entry »

If the pitcher for whom they traded went by a different name, the Cubs’ deadline acquisition of a 34-year-old starter with a 5.20 FIP, 4.72 ERA, and near-replacement 0.3 WAR likely wouldn’t have merited much attention. Even knowing that the pitcher in question was Cole Hamels, one could still be forgiven — in light of the left-hander’s recent track record — for a lack of optimism.

A couple weeks later, Hamels has produced three pretty great starts for Chicago. And while, when the Cubs’ traded for Hamels, there was some thought that a more friendly ballpark, better defense, and easier league would all benefit him — and possibly have benefited him — the fact is that he’s also just pitching a lot better than he did with the Rangers.

To get a sense of this version of Hamels versus the Texas one, consider the numbers from his average start with the Rangers this year relative to the three he’s recorded with the Cubs.

Between the relatively high left-on-base percentage and relatively low BABIP, Hamels has probably benefited from a little bit of luck — although the quality of the Cubs’ defense is also a possible factor here, as well. It’s also quite possible the change in park is benefiting Hamels, as he has yet to concede a home run with Chicago after giving up around one per game with Texas.

That said, Hamels has also struck out an extra batter and walked one batter fewer per appearance. That sort of thing probably resides outside the influence of mere environmental changes. And while it might be a result just of random variation, there is some evidence to suggest Hamels is pitching better in his last three games than at any time during the season.

Likely having no direct relationship to the change of scenery is the matter of Hamels’ velocity. As the graph below reveals, he’s throwing the ball harder as a Cub.

Hamels hadn’t topped an average of 94 mph per start since 2016. He’s alerady done that twice in three starts with the Cubs. Added velocity can only help Hamels. Even as he entered his 30s, Hamels put up good marks by this measure, averaging 93-94 mph from 2014 to -16. When he lost some velocity last year, however, his numbers suffered. When the velocity remained lower over the first half of this season, he continued to struggle. He’s throwing harder with the Cubs and, likely as a consequence, has done a better job of getting batters out.

It isn’t just the bump in velocity that appears to have helped Hamels, though. There’s been a change in approach, as well. The biggest difference for the left-hander in terms of pitch selection has been increased usage of the four-seam fastball — at the expense of his sinker, particularly — over the last two starts.

Prioritizing the four-seam over the two-seam seems to have slightly pre-dated the trade Chicago: three of Hamels’ last five starts for the Rangers have a similar disparity. Nor did usage change emerge in any real way during Hamels’ first start with Chicago, either. Over the last two starts, though, the four-seam fastball has been a lot better — and it isn’t just velocity. Hamels has changed the ball’s location, too. The heat map below shows where Hamels was throwing his four-seam to righties with the Rangers and now with the Cubs.

These images are from the pitcher’s perspective. One finds that, with the Rangers, Hamels threw his four-seamer middle and away; with the Cubs, meanwhile, he appears to be making a concerted effort to go inside against righties. Look at the first pitch of the game on Sunday night against Trea Turner.

It’s an inside fastball. Now, look at the second pitch.

Another inside fastball. Now look at the third pitch.

That one was way inside. Hamels then threw a curve down the middle that Turner fouled off. Here is the final pitch of the at-bat.

That pitch was clocked at 96 mph. Hamels threw four fastballs to Turner, and all of them were inside. The harder he throws, the more comfortably he can work inside without the hitter turning on the pitch. And while the sample for Hamels’ secondary pitches remains quite small, he seems to have thrown his changeup out of the zone a little bit more.

Whether this is signal or mere noise, it’s too early to say, but the Cubs’ version of Hamels looks like a pitcher who is attempting to induce more swinging strikes. So far, it is working: Hamels has recorded a whiff on nearly one-third of his changeups with the Cubs. That’s only a bit higher than with the Rangers, but Hamels has given up seven homers on the pitch this year, so pitching further down could help keep the ball in the field of play when contact is made.

Of Hamels’ 23 homers this season, 16 have come against either the change or four-seam fastball, and 22 of 23 homers have gone against righties. The narrative concerning Hamels’ departure from Texas for Chicago centered around the benefits of leaving the Rangers’ ballpark. While we shouldn’t dismiss that narrative entirely, there’s probably more to it than that. Hamels was probably just throwing too many pitches in the middle of the plate, and those pitches tend to get hit the hardest.

Simultaneously increasing the velocity on his fastball and getting the ball inside to righties seems more likely to help Hamels’ home-run troubles than a simply move to Wrigley Field. Keeping his changeup lower should have similar positive effects. A four-seam fastball on the hands and a change low and away leaves a lot of plate for hitters to cover. Cole Hamels seems to have made some early adjustments that have helped him succeed for the Cubs. It remains to be seen if hitters can adjust back. If Hamels is regularly throwing in the mid-90s and hitting his spots, however, those adjustments will be hard to make.

Projecting the Rookie of the Year award is simultaneously easier and more difficult than the Cy Young. It’s easier in the sense that there are fewer rookies than non-rookies and that, in most seasons, there’s a definite top tier of candidates that crowds out the rest of the pack.

What makes it a bit trickier is that the standards for rookies are applied a bit more haphazardly by writers. Because rookie ballots feature only three players — as opposed to five for the Cy Young and 10 for MVP — we see fewer players actually included in the final voting. Ideally, you’d like to bring in all the voters, crack open their skulls, and somehow read their brains to see how everyone would rank at least the top 10 rookies. My lawyers, however, inform me that this is extremely illegal and also totally gross.

In the end, I’m less confident about the Rookie of the Year model than the MVP or Cy Young versions. While, historically, ZiPS identifies about seven of the top 10 MVP and Cy Young vote-getters, the model only gets three of the top five rookies. Hopefully, as the electorate becomes more and more analytically inclined, I’ll be able to improve the model.

The greatest challenge of projecting the AL race is figuring out what to do with Shohei Ohtani. There’s no guidance available on how two-way players ought to be treated, so there’s a lot more guesswork than usual. Comparing apples to oranges is tricky enough — although rendered less tricky by the fact that they’re frequently right next to each other at the grocery store — but how do you treat something that is an apple and an orange at the same time? Applange and orpple both sound terrible.

Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Carpenter just hit another home run. Here, look at it:

That home run was hit on August 13, and for Carpenter, it was his career-high 33rd. He had set a new career high with his 29th, and so this is all just uncharted territory. Right now, Carpenter leads the National League in wRC+. He also leads the National League in Statcast’s expected wOBA, so it’s not like this is all luck. Carpenter has been absolutely outstanding, and he’s likely to generate support for the league MVP. He’s helped to fuel the Cardinals’ recent run toward a wild-card spot, and heaven only knows where the club would be without him.

I should also point out that, according to Statcast again, Carpenter’s top exit velocity this season ranks in the 35th percentile. We’re mostly accustomed to sluggers who slug the ball. Carpenter would never be confused for another Giancarlo Stanton. So let’s quickly walk through how Carpenter makes this all work. To a certain extent this is all pretty basic, but Carpenter happens to be one of the world leaders in bat control.

Read the rest of this entry »

Newly retired outfielder Jayson Werth was honored by the Phillies in early August for his contributions to the 2008 World Champions. He made news that weekend for comments that derided “super nerds” as “killing the game.” (It’s worth noting, of course, that Werth was a sabermetric darling back in the day, standing out for his plate discipline.) Of more interest to me, however, was this statement he made on the Howard Eskin podcast:

“I had offers in November, and I was advised by my former agent to wait; ill-advised, I guess.”

***

“Some guys were surprised to hear from me – they didn’t know that I wanted to play. Which was surprising, because I wanted to play. I let my agent know I wanted to play. And they said they either hadn’t heard from him, hadn’t heard from me, just didn’t know that I was available. So that’s one of the reasons why I’m no longer with that agent.”

That raises eyebrows for two reasons. First, because Werth is essentially accusing his agent of a breach of contract, and potentially a breach of fiduciary duty as well. (Keep that term in mind – it’ll be important later.) And second, because the agent in question is Scott Boras, who has been recognized by Forbes as the industry’s most powerful and who, thanks to Eric Hosmer, has now negotiated no fewer than 15 deals of $100 million or more. Accusing Scott Boras of not doing his job is a bit like accusing Clarence Darrow of malpractice: it gets your attention.

Now, Boras, for his part, denies any wrongdoing. His company, the Boras Corporation, gave the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes this statement:

Unfortunately, it appears someone has misled Jayson. We contacted all 30 teams numerous times during the offseason on his behalf, and we have phone logs, emails, and other records to back it up. We received no offers for Jayson in November, or otherwise. We are always prepared to support our work against inaccuracies spread by third parties. We understand the frustration and disappointment players can face and wish Jayson all the best.

What’s perhaps more interesting is this excerpt from Janes’ story (emphasis mine):

The Boras Corporation sends out a list of its free agents to every team at the start of free agency each November. Werth’s name was on that list. Boras Corp. provided that list for verification, as well as date-stamped phone logs that documented dozens of phone calls and emails made to executives on Werth’s behalf. Boras keeps detailed records of every offer and conversation, documentation that protects them against allegations of malpractice — and any litigation that could accompany them.

The reference to litigation isn’t accidental; I’d even wager that it was provided to Janes by the Boras Corporation itself. Boras is a lawyer and, believe it or not, lawyers are very deliberate in how and when they raise the spectre of litigation. This was a shot across Werth’s bow — a warning, if you will, not to pursue the matter further.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Five years ago, 23-year-old Patrick Corbin put together a very promising season. In more than 200 innings, Corbin’s 3.41 ERA and 3.43 FIP both represented solidly above-average marks, while the 3.5 WAR he recorded pointed to what was a coming-out party for a player who never featured heavily on top-prospect lists. Unfortunately, the party didn’t last: Corbin underwent Tommy John surgery before the 2014 season, and despite a good showing after his return in 2015, he took a step back in 2016 before producing a decent campaign last year. This season, somewhat surprisingly, Corbin has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball despite having lost some velocity on his fastball in May.

After just two of the left-hander’s starts this season, Jeff Sullivan noticed that Corbin was using a slider more often — that he was, in fact, using two different sliders — to the exclusion of the fastball. As the season has gone on, the slower slider has been classified often as a curve. Despite the slower speed, however, it still features the same movement as the slider. To consider the similarities of the pitch, consider the graph below, which shows the difference between slider movement and curve movement for all qualified pitchers who throw each pitch at least 5% of the time.

Most pitchers’ curves feature more drop than their sliders. The two pitches typically feature different horizontal movement, as well. On average, the difference is about four inches vertically and three inches horizontally. For Corbin, though, the horizontal difference between the pitches is less than an inch, and the vertical difference is almost nothing. Corbin generally uses the curve on the first pitch of an at-bat, with more than half of his curves coming on the first pitch and nearly three-quarters of his curves coming with no strikes, per Brooks Baseball. It’s a pitch he uses in the strike zone when the batter is probably expecting a fastball. The curve helps Corbin either stay ahead or get back even in the count, and still gets a decent 13% whiff rate because of the timing.

In an era that has seen pitchers move towards the four-seam fastball and away from the sinker, Corbin has actually gone the opposite direction. Over the past two seasons, the lefty has cut his four-seam usage in half and shifted most of those pitches to his best pitch, the slider. He’s also shifted away usage from his change, which has meant doubling the combined usage of the slider and curve to nearly 50%, while his two fastballs have essentially been relegated to secondary offerings.

Read the rest of this entry »

Braves rookie Ronald Acuña has been on a tear lately. On Monday against the Marlins in Atlanta, the 20-year-old phenom did something that only three other players have done in over a century: lead off both games of a doubleheader with a home run. In the opener on Monday afternoon, the makeup of an August 1 rainout, Acuña clubbed Miami starter Pablo López’s fifth pitch of the game, a center-cut 93 mph four-seamer, an estimated 414 feet to center field:

Acuña later added a two-run double in that contest, which Braves went on to win, 9-1. In the nightcap, he hit the first pitch of Merandy Gonzalez’s first start, also a well-centered 93 mph four-seamer (jeez, kid, watch the tapes) an estimated 441 feet to center:

The Braves took that one as well, 6-1. With that pair of homers, Acuna etched himself in the record books:

Read the rest of this entry »

Blaine Hardy believes in the value of “screwing around with things.” That’s how the 31-year-old Detroit Tigers left-hander learned how to throw one of his best pitches. Tinkering while playing catch, he discovered a vulcan.

His career was at a crossroads at the time. Five years after the Kansas City Royals took him in the 22nd round of the 2008 draft out of Lewis-Clark State College, Hardy was treading water in the minors. As a low-round pick with a nothing-special fastball, he needed either to dd a new pitch or to improve the quality of one he already threw. With a who-knows-what-you-might-stumble-upon mindset, he kind of did both.

Hardy, who will be on the mound for the Tigers tonight, has made 22 appearances on the season, 12 of them as a starter. He has a record of 4-4 to go with his 3.53 ERA, and he’s thrown the pitch in question nearly a quarter of the time.

———

Blaine Hardy: “I’ve always had a good changeup. Growing up, my dad didn’t want me throwing a curveball or slider — anything with spin — nor did my pitching coach. They said, ‘Just keep it straight. That’s going to help your arm in the long run.’ I was like, ‘Well, alright. So, what are we going to work on?’ Well, a changeup, obviously.

“I basically threw a circle change to start. I learned how to simulate my arm speed to my fastball, and it was a very good pitch for me. It looked exactly like my fastball and would just die a little bit.

“For whatever reason, over the years it kind of straightened out. I was tweaking certain grips to try to make it a little bit slower, a little bit slower, a little bit slower. People would talk to me about trying to dip my back side, which I tried, and it didn’t feel right. Nothing seemed to work. Finally — this was around the time the Royals released me and the Tigers picked me up (in 2013) — I switched to a modified split. It’s not with the main fingers, but rather the ring finger and the middle finger. It’s what’s been called ‘a vulcan.’

“Basically, I was screwing around with every grip I possibly could, and I stumbled on that one. I threw it, and it went straight down. I was like, ‘I want that.’

Read the rest of this entry »

This is Nate Freiman’s first post as part of his August residency. Nate is a former MLB first baseman. He also played for Team Israel in the 2017 World Baseball Classic and spent time in the Atlantic and Mexican Leagues. He can be found on Twitter @natefreiman. His wife Amanda routinely beats him at golf.

Editor’s Note: a version of this work was recently presented at SaberSeminar 2018.

In 2011, I was playing at High-A for the Padres. I’d graduated from the Midwest League to Lake Elsinore in the California League. (They have the cool storm-eyes logo, but it scares my toddler so my old hats are in boxes.) Since we were so close to San Diego, we got lots of guys on MLB rehab assignments. I was a senior sign making $1,300 a month, so it was huge when someone like Orlando Hudson came through and bought us Outback.

During their assignments, every MLB guy got The Question: “What’s it like up there?” The best answer I ever heard was, “Chuck E Cheese for adults.” O-Dog, as Hudson was known, had a pretty strong reply, too: “Better balls, better lights, and a better zone.”

In this case, “better zone” means two things. The first is size. (“That’s outside!”) The second is consistency. (“That’s been a strike all day!”) And O-Dog was right: the umpiring (just like the play on the field) does get better as you go up. We’d be in some cramped clubhouse, playing cards, and eating our $11 PB+Js, watching the big club, when a pitcher would inevitably yell, “That’s a strike!” And maybe it was… by Northwest League standards.

But those standards are different than the ones at higher levels. For example: have you ever seen a check swing get overruled? I have. In Boise, back in 2009. The hitter at the plate checked his swing, and the umpire responded by yelling, “Yes he did!” After the batting team complained, however, the home-plate umpire decided to appeal to his colleague at third base, who ruled it not a swing. I’ve never seen something like that before or since.

It’s no secret that the umpiring in the majors is superior to the sort found in the minors. It’s also no secret that part of the superior umpiring is a smaller, more well defined zone. But what about the different levels of the minors? Does the strike zone get smaller at each level? Does it get more consistent? I wanted some answers.

Building the Model

In order to get them, I needed minor-league TrackMan data. That data is all proprietary, but one team sent some of it to me on the condition of anonymity. (If anyone from that organization is reading this, thank you again!) The org in question sent me a sample of 20,000 taken pitches divided across the four full-season levels. The team trimmed the data to contain only horizontal and vertical location, pitcher and batter handedness, count, and a binary “strike” or “ball” call. There was no other identifying information.

Read the rest of this entry »