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FanGraphs Turns 20! Thank you for supporting us for two decades!
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Adam Ottavino Has a Weakness

After a miserable 2017, Adam Ottavino has been able to rebound, establishing himself as one of the better relievers in either league. That’s why he was the Rockies’ first pitcher out of the bullpen the other day in the wild-card game in Chicago. Granted, Ottavino allowed the tying run. There wasn’t another run until the top of the 13th. The bottom of the 13th was led off by Terrance Gore.

Let’s tie this all together, you and me. Why was Gore ever in the game in the first place? He pinch-ran in the eighth for Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo had hit a two-out single. Gore came in and wasted no time.

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A Few Quick Thoughts About the Rockies’ Offense

When Charlie Blackmon was double-switched out of Tuesday night’s NL Wild Card game in the bottom of the eighth inning, immediately after the Cubs tied the game and the Rockies put in Wade Davis, it wasn’t hard to miss just how limited Colorado’s offense is. With their season on the line, the next nine hitters that manager Bud Black sent to the plate from that point were as follows:

Rockies’ Batting Order in Late Innings of Wild Card Game
Order # Player PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+
3 Nolan Arenado 673 .297 .374 .561 132
4 Trevor Story 656 .291 .348 .567 127
5 Gerardo Parra 443 .284 .342 .372 80
6 Ian Desmond 619 .236 .307 .422 81
7 David Dahl 271 .273 .325 .534 109
8 Carlos Gonzalez 504 .276 .329 .467 96
9 Drew Butera 182 .190 .264 .301 52
1 Pat Valaika 133 .156 .214 .246 9
2 DJ LeMahieu 581 .276 .321 .428 86
Tony Wolters 216 .170 .292 .286 45
Ryan McMahon 202 .232 .307 .376 68

Valaika, pinch-hitting for Davis in the 10th, gave way to pitcher Seung Hwan Oh, who departed in the 11th in favor of Chris Rusin via a double-switch that removed Desmond and brought in McMahon. Scott Oberg followed Rusin in the 12th, double-switched out in a move where Wolters replaced Butera. That Wolters ultimately collected the game-winning hit in the 13th owes something to the position that Cubs starter-turned-reliever Kyle Hendricks was forced into under the circumstances, but the fact that he came through, despite the meager prospects for doing so, is both Very Baseball and why the Rockies lived to fight another series. Read the rest of this entry »


Brewers Go With Traditional Non-Traditional Starter

Last night, in starting Liam Hendriks, the Oakland A’s went with The Opener, using a reliever to start the game with the expectation that he will pitch just one inning. Today, the Brewers have also opted to start a reliever in Brandon Woodruff. Unlike the A’s, the Brewers have no plans to start a reliever for one inning, or to start a reliever for one out like the club did last week when they used a LOOGY in Dan Jennings to pitch only to Matt Carpenter. When the Brewers opted for Jennings, I opined the ploy could be useful in the playoffs:

This situation might have some utility for the Brewers in the playoffs. If the team makes the Wild Card game and faces the Cardinals, then Matt Carpenter is likely to be at the top of the order. If they were to face the Rockies, lefty Charlie Blackmon is likely to lead off. While September’s expanded rosters allow for a greater margin of error, a one-game Wild Card matchup still permits more relievers, as teams need just one starter instead of four in later rounds. The Brewers conducted an interesting experiment somewhat necessitated by a lack of starting options, the unique circumstances of the September roster, and the Cardinals’ lineup.

The situation is less desirable in Game One of a five-game series, as carrying a one-out reliever can be difficult with the number of games and limited roster space. The Brewers opted not to even carry Jennings on the roster, instead indicating that lefty starters Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez could be used in relief. Bud Black indicated he had no plans to move Charlie Blackmon out of the leadoff spot, and the lack of a LOOGY on the Brewers roster means he doesn’t even need to think about it.

As for the Brewers’ bullpen plans, Craig Counsell indicated on Wednesday the bullpen game he’s using today isn’t likely to mirror what we saw from A’s last night, with a train of relievers, or from the Rays this season, with a reliever followed by a starter:

Look, these aren’t going to be one-out appearances. These are going to be longer appearances. These are going to be two, three-inning appearances that we think we can get through with this.

In choosing Woodruff, Counsell doesn’t even believe he’s starting the game with a reliever.

And I think from our perspective, Woody is–he’s not a reliever. He has the ability to do more than that, if that’s what the game calls for. So that’s–one, he’s throwing the ball really well, and two, I think he has the potential to do a little more than a reliever maybe.

Counsell’s belief is supported by others. Before the season started, Eric Longenhagen said, “He’s a big-league-ready, sinker/slider fourth starter. Between the majors and minors this year, Woodruff has made 21 starts, including six at Triple-A in August. He struggled some overall, but he struck out 26 batters in 20 innings during that time. Since being recalled in September, Woodruff has been utilized as a reliever, but he’s gone multiple inning three times. More importantly, he’s been really good, with a 1.54 FIP, 16 strikeouts and just three walks while allowing only a single run in 12.1 innings. He features a high-90s four-seamer in relief in addition to his slider, and the Brewers hope that can get the club through the lineup at least once.

After Woodruff, Freddy Peralta is an interesting option. He’s started 14 games this season with a solid 3.85 FIP in those starts. In his last outing, he came on in relief of Jennings after that LOOGY start and went 3.2 innings, striking out three and giving up one run before the rest of the bullpen came to the rescue. Miley might be another consideration before the team can turn things over to Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, Joakim Soria, and Jeremy Jeffress.

The Brewers aren’t going with an Opener, and they aren’t going to pitch eight relievers over nine innings. What’s happening today is your more traditional bullpen game. It might not be common in the playoffs, but supplementing a couple long men in Woodruff and Peralta probably gives them a better chance to get outs than going with a starter on short rest like Gonzalez or a struggling Miley.


The Restoration of Dellin Betances

Although the Yankees ultimately put the A’s away by a somewhat lopsided margin, it was right in the middle that the A’s had some life. Luis Severino was surprisingly allowed to start the top of the fifth, and with the score then just 2-0, he gave up consecutive singles. Matt Chapman was due up. He’d be followed by Jed Lowrie. He’d be followed by Khris Davis. Aaron Boone went to his bullpen, with the game threatening to swing in the other direction. The pitcher he went to was Dellin Betances.

Within a few minutes, the inning was over, and the score was preserved. Betances went 1-2-3 again in the sixth, and then the Yankees pulled away. According to Win Probability Added, Betances wound up making the biggest positive contribution on the Yankees’ roster. Such territory was hardly uncharted; Betances was one of the best relievers in baseball for years. But in 2017, he lost the ballclub’s trust. Joe Girardi didn’t even use him in the wild-card game, and subsequent appearances were mostly low-leverage. A year ago, Betances had nobody’s faith. Wednesday, he was first out of the pen.

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The Brewers Outfield Combating Coors

With their win in the divisional tiebreaker on Monday, the Brewers took home the National League Central title, their second Central crown and third division title in their 49-year existence. By winning, besides avoiding the scramble of the winner-take-all Wild Card game, they get to face the Colorado Rockies. This is surely preferable for the Brewers for many reasons. For one, the Rockies offense is significantly less potent than either the Cubs or Dodgers — the Brewers’ other potential opponents — putting up an 87 team wRC+ compared to 100 for the Cubs and 111 for the league-leading Dodgers. The Brewers also (albeit in rather small samples) took five of seven from the Rockies this year, compared to three of seven from the Dodgers and nine out of 20 from the Cubs.

Despite the optimism, there is one catch to playing the Rockies; eventually, you have to go to Coors Field. Coors can be a tricky place to play, as many NL West players could tell you. From the elevation to the humidor, there are many factors that come into play once you travel to Denver. However, the Brewers are uniquely situated to combat one of Coors Field’s most difficult attributes.

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Who Needs a Ring?

Carlos Beltran entered last year’s playoffs with Hall of Fame credentials. Having accumulated 67 WAR, over 400 homers, and a few Gold Gloves out in center field, Beltran’s career was long and nearly finished. He had played in the postseason — including a World Series — and put up bonkers numbers in the process, hitting 16 homers in just 55 games. What he hadn’t done is win a title.

Beltran finally won that title with the Houston Astros.

He was not the only player to complement an impressive career with a championship last fall. Justin Verlander entered last year on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He also lacked a title. Following a trade to Houston, he picked up his first ring as well.

There might not be a Beltran in this postseason, but there are a handful of players with lengthy careers still seeking their first title.

We will start on the position player side. These are the players with the most WAR who have yet to get a championship ring. Read the rest of this entry »


Elegy for ’18 – New York Mets

The Mets had expectations coming into the season, but they whiffed on most of them.
(Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

Some fanbases regard themselves as the best in baseball. Others pride themselves on their ability to hate anything, including Santa Claus. Still others are just a group of eight people cowering in the shadows of a creaky, nightmare-inducing home-run feature. But no fanbase does self-immolation like Mets fans, whose experience is one mostly of mind-numbing frustration peppered by only the occasional highlight.

That staring-into-middle-distance sadness is, of course, justified given the team’s history — and, more relevant to this post, the ups and downs and ups of 2018.

The Setup

New York’s 70-92 record in 2017, during which almost everything went wrong, was bleak enough to obscure the club’s recent success, including a World Series appearance in 2015 and return to playoffs in 2016.

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Yankees Defeat Surprising A’s Bullpen in Less Surprising Way

NEW YORK — It was a nice, tight AL Wild Card Game until Fernando Rodney showed up. Through five-and-a-half innings, the Yankees led the A’s 2-0 on the strength of a two-run first-inning homer by Aaron Judge off opener Liam Hendriks and an effectively wild four innings from Luis Severino, backed by a pair of dominant frames from Dellin Betances. The Oakland lineup had managed just two hits to that point while striking out 10 times, yet the A’s were still in the game thanks to the four scoreless innings they got from the two pitchers who followed Hendriks — namely, Lou Trivino (who matched his season high with three innings) and Shawn Kelley. A’s manager Bob Melvin, who had elected to bullpen his way through the game, had another decision to make with Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Giancarlo Stanton due up for the sixth.

He chose poorly. The much traveled 41-year-old Rodney, who had been acquired from the Twins on August 9, had not pitched particularly well for the A’s, turning in a 3.92 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 20.2 innings; in September, he was rocked for an 8.38 ERA while walking 10 in 9.2 innings. Melvin literally had half-a-dozen alternatives upon which to call for what might be the most daunting and important stretch left on the table. Nobody would have raised an eyebrow if he’d tabbed Jeurys Familia, Yusmeiro Petit, or rookie J.B. Wendelken, all of whom fared better than Rodney in September.

Rodney got a called strike on a first-pitch sinker, but his second offering was doubled down the right-field line by Judge. Two pitches later, Hicks doubled to center field, expanding the Yankees’ lead to 3-0. A wild pitch sent Hicks to third base as Stanton stepped in, and Melvin had no choice but to pull him and call upon Blake Treinen to save not the game but the season.

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Job Postings: Braves R&D and Baseball Operations

Please note, this posting contains three positions.

Position: Atlanta Braves R&D Developer Trainee

Location: Atlanta, GA

Description:

The R&D Developer Trainee position emphasizes software and web development as it relates to the Baseball Operations department. The trainee’s main responsibilities will be to assist the R&D department with building proprietary applications for displaying baseball information and visualizations, maintaining existing information management systems, and developing additional productivity tools to aid in Baseball Operations decision making. Candidates must have proven experience with application and/or web development, with interest in baseball and sports analytics research as a strong plus. The position will report to Assistant General Manager, Research and Development.

Note: Applicants for full-season R&D Developer Trainee positions (Jan-Nov), and summer R&D Developer Intern positions (May-Aug) will be considered.

Responsibilities:

  • Assist in the development and maintenance of all proprietary software used within the Baseball Operations department.
  • Work with department stakeholders to develop, deploy and test applications within IT best practice parameters.
  • Build relationships, communicate effectively, and gather feedback from Baseball Operations staff to build new platforms and improve existing systems.
  • Perform other duties as assigned.

Required Qualifications:

  • Past or expected BA or BS in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, or related technical field of study or equivalent work experience.
  • Demonstrated software development experience in one or more programming languages: Java, .NET, Python, Flask, Javascript, AngularJS, C#, C/C++.
  • Familiarity with database technologies and SQL. Microsoft SQL Server experience is a plus.
  • Ability to learn new technologies, including new coding languages.
  • Strong work ethic, initiative, and the ability to solve technical problems.
  • Ability to work flexible hours, including some nights and weekends as dictated by the Major League season.
  • Must complete a successful background check.

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Knowledge of current baseball statistics and analytics used in player evaluation a plus
  • Experience with data visualization a plus.
  • Web development experience, especially with JavaScript, Angular JS, or Python Flask
  • Experience with big data techniques.
  • Demonstrated software development work product.
  • Collegiate or other baseball playing experience.

To Apply:
If you are interested, please email your resume and any other materials to bravesrdpositions@gmail.com.

Position: Atlanta Braves R&D Analyst Trainee

Location: Atlanta, GA

Description:
The R&D Analyst Trainee will assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis and research of baseball information. The day-to-day responsibilities of this position will revolve around using data analysis to provide insight into player evaluation, performance projection, roster construction, and all other facets of baseball operations decision making, with emphasis on different sub-departments depending on the baseball calendar and needs of the department. The position will report to Assistant General Manager, Research and Development.

Note: Applicants for full-season R&D Analyst Trainee (Jan-Nov), and summer R&D Analyst Intern (May-Aug) positions will be considered.

Responsibilities:

  • Perform advanced statistical analysis on large datasets in order to assist in the decision-making of the Baseball Operations department.
  • Develop software, databases, models, applications, reports, and other information systems to increase efficiency of the Baseball Operations department.
  • Perform ad-hoc research projects as requested and present results in a concise manner.

Required Qualifications:

  • Strong foundation in the application of statistical concepts to baseball data, including familiarity with current state of baseball research.
  • Experience with SQL and relational databases.
  • Experience with statistical modeling software (R or Python preferred).
  • Ability to communicate concepts to individuals with diverse baseball backgrounds, including coaches, scouts and executives.
  • Ability to work flexible hours, including some nights and weekends as dictated by the Major League season.
  • Must complete a successful background check.

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Extensive experience with statistical modeling and prediction techniques, including regression, classification, and machine learning.
  • Web development experience, especially with JavaScript, Angular JS, or Python Flask.
  • Experience with at least one scripting language (e.g. Python, Ruby, Perl).
  • Experience with big data techniques a plus.
  • Demonstrated baseball or other sports analytics research work product.
  • Ability and desire to learn other programming languages as needed.
  • Collegiate or other baseball playing experience.

To Apply:
If you are interested, please email your resume and any other materials to bravesrdpositions@gmail.com.

Position: Major League Operations Analyst

Location: Atlanta, GA

Description:
Support the Major League Operations group through the creation of tools for displaying and disseminating data, statistics, and other baseball-related information. The ideal candidate has a strong technical background and can work independently on self-contained projects, as well as an understanding of baseball research concepts and modern gameplay strategies. This position will report to the Director of Major League Operations.

Responsibilities:

  • Develop tools and visualizations for disseminating statistical concepts.
  • Conduct research projects for the Major League Operations group.
  • Help build database and reporting infrastructure to support Major League advance report and coaching staff needs.
  • Summarize project results in succinct, actionable format and present findings to the group.
  • Work on Major League advance scouting process.

Qualifications:

  • Demonstrated track record as self-starter through independently-produced projects and/or writing (via online publication, etc.).
  • Strong foundation in the application of statistical concepts to baseball data and the translation of data into actionable baseball recommendations.

Required Qualifications:

  • Advanced-level capabilities in R and SQL.

Strongly Preferred Qualifications:

  • Experience with at least one scripting language (e.g. Python, Ruby, Perl) and web development experience with Python Flask.
  • Demonstrable independent research (published or unpublished) using publicly available datasets (i.e. PITCHf/x, Statcast, etc).

Duration:
January 2019 for calendar year. Depending on candidate qualifications position may be an internship or full-time.

To Apply:
Please email relevant materials, research, and resume to bravesopsjobs@gmail.com.


AL Wild Card Live Chat

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