FanGraphs Baseball

Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 19, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.

Over/under for how many innings from bibee? He hasn't pitched in a week, vogt must be mad

I’m hearing under 1 and 2 from my FanGraphs coworkers.

I'm pulling for Cleveland tonight only because I love game 7s and them winning gives us a better chance at that

Games 7 *are* fun!

Good evening everyone!

Hello everyone. Steven Kwan is letting the beard grow and I am proud of him.

Armstong pitching. Is Nominative Determinism the new Moneyball?

Kwan. On. Fire.

So somebody on this broadcast seems to have read my article.

That article was excellent

Thank you!

If I'd had a little more time, I was going to do some fun graphics. You'd see a picture of José Ramírez or whoever with a big thumbs up, and then in huge letters at the bottom of the picture, it'd say "87.2 mph."

They really ought to give credit

I think the mindset is that if it's on the internet, it's there to use.

Is it just me or are there a lot of Guard fans there?

👍⚾️👍

Noted FanGraphs reader Ron Darling

Hello from Raleigh, everyone!

North Carolina, not Cal

I like how the motion sickness medicine ad makes me slightly sick

Hey guys! What's in Raleigh, Jon?

Open source coding conference

Greetings everyone… lets give this maybe one last go… I promise to be nice to Vogt for at least… awe who am I kidding. Glad to be here, GO GUARDS!

At this rate Armstrong going 9

At this rate, he'll have a Maddux.

It is very Maddux that he caught that himself!

The universe is telling us something.

New Balance nerfing Ohtani

Who makes those pitch coms? Yugo?

Old joke… You go…because it doesn't.

“Huh??” said everyone under 40 😆.

coding chat returns!

Can Joey tillo, or can he not illo…or maybe both??

Hey I hope everyone is having a great night 🙂 excited to watch some ALCS baseball

Can anybody help me? I am trying to come up with anyone who went from the outhouse to the penthouse as dramatically as Fastball Freddie did after his trade from the Mets.

I can do the opposite with Casey Blake in CLE… (Bauer both ways?)

Who at MLB thought "Baseball is Something Else" would be a compelling slogan?

Well the other option was “Baseball: we like strikes”

Alright everybody, best joke of the night has been achieved before we're out of the second inning.

Seriously, baseball is kinda cool would have been better

Baseball is baseball would have been better

Maybe they had “Just…baseball” and then Sydney ruined it?

I would like Szym to calculate how much money Kyle Snyder has increased the estimate for Freddy’s next contract.

Bailey having a rough series with challenges

After Hedgie was the single best in the preseason… the entire CLE team has been awful at it.

He's had trouble with ABS all season, which is a little surprising considering his framing skills

I would like to institute a three challenge rule with my wife.

I wonder if Simpson practices making the ball bounce up high like that

Most players train to lift the ball… what if he intentionally tries to top it as much as possible

Post-ground launch angle

lol he's going for yards after contact

I would love a player who made his living off the Baltimore chop.

Let the Simpson worship begin!

Could he BE any more safe?!?

Check that glove for pine tar… I legit dont know if this is legal…

Glad I logged on in time for the Friends reference

Thank you Mesa.

Words never spoken in CLE after 97…

I wish there was a food called a Baltimore chip

Now there is!

chop

Not sure I agree with Matt Festa as potentially the third reliever used in an elimination game

Yes it is very odd considering his reluctance to use him in close games in July

… and then the walk. Yi

Not fit to protect a six-run lead for an inning, but here…sure, why not?

A Festavus for the rest of us

Does the Trop have the most foul territory now that the Coliseum isn't a thing?

Also by “not sure” I mean “I do not agree.” Your report card will suffer, Vogt

I'm doing my best here!

I like the pronounced turf splash when the ball plunks down in the outfield

Yes bartender, I’ll have a Turf Splash with my Baltimore Chips

It the combo is called The Something Else

Well done, Sir

This may not be ideal for Cleveland

I think we're gonna need a bigger boat

Does this count as small ball? Multiple steals

Or a bigger bullpen.

I know Bibee was not great down the stretch but it is honestly hard to understand why he didnt start this game.

As a long (lifelong) suffering Cleveland fan, I'm ok with either of the other remaining teams winning this WS this year. The affinity I feel for lower budget teams is sorta like Larry David shouting "Prius!" at the other priuses on the road

I need the Rays to win this game before Cascade Platinum Plus infests my brain permanently in another game

That commercial drives me crazy.

Imagine being a dishwasher repair guy and just going from house to house saying, "Yeah, nothing for me to repair. You owe me $300 for the visit, though."

I keep hearing "double dong power" and giggle because I"m a child

Channel your disappointment at Vogt, Herrin. Yes, yes, let the evil flow through you.

Also, we tried those pods. The plastic didn't dissolve all the way and they made my dishwasher leak all over the floor.

That’s a feature. It’s called Expanded Water Radius.

They work great in mine.

So yesterday Vogt empties the tank completely when losing 3-0 but today he goes to Festa.

I am so perplexed.

I am both bemused *AND* amused

lol check the ball it him in the arm

BryanB, you're on fire tonight. Can you help me punch up articles?

Happy to. I have advanced dad joke skills.

After Pat Murphy facial expression analysis and the thumbs up and down article I have no notes

I'm vexed. I'm terribly vexed. Nothing against Festa. Seems like a cool guy and all. Something about espresso during the wbc?

YOu can always come back and win three straight in this best-of-9 series

Found Dusty Baker's burner account.

Strategy: HBP takes fewer pitches than BB.

Boy I sure am GLAD the CLE season comes down to a guy not good enough to protect a 6 RUN LEAD!!

He wouldn't even use Festa to protect a 6 run lead against the Reds in the dog days of summer.

Man, the sooner this bullpen game crap goes away the better. I don’t know what possesses a manager to think nine innings of tired pitchers who the other team is seen three or four times apiece makes any sense. Use your starters. If they don’t have it, pivot to a bullpen game,

Can we add that to the negotiations? Verlanders rules.

Just fire Vogt!

Has anyone done an article about bullpen games in the playoffs and if it ever works?

It definitely can work but it depends on your personnel. You eventually need pitchers you can trust in innings that matter so you need to consider that if you're managing

…especially in higher leverage games?

The individual games where teams bullpen have been split 14-14… the team that bullpens more has won 12-11 in series.

Since 2024 it is 10-4 for the most bullpeny team

or so my very quick AI search tells me

You probably need to look at counter factual pitchers instead of just looking at outcomes. Though, that doesn’t seem to be bad for the bullpen team. If I understand it right.

Is a counter factual pitcher… Fallacious?

That one skipped 3x off the lake

Sometimes it sounds like Franceour is talking to himself

Wow huge

Finally a good challenge at the right time.

What a great challenge

Hicks has been pretty good with challenges in the playoffs.

This is remarkable considering he was quite bad during the regular season, successful on just 49 of 87 challenges initiated as a catcher

guardians ran out of steam and now are getting BABIP'd, its really over

There were some babip goings-on yesterday too.

i missed yesterday (daughters birthday)

My intuition is that the luck cannot be as bad as it seems when watching. But then something like that keeps happening and it really may be.

Hoist'd on their own petard.

Excused absences are permitted

Guess what, Steven…Cantillo could have just started this game and giving you multiple innings. And then you wouldn’t have had a bunch of other pitchers pitching in unusual spots.

Magic 8 ball said NO.

chandler simpson might be my favorite non star in the playoffs

Oh WOW

Nice!

CHANDLER

The essential Chandler move

He was 3 the first season of ZiPS 🙁

Time is a predator.

What were his projections that year?

Ground ball, CMON

Ya I think we can just flat say that CLE got out coached in this entire series.

I generally like Vogt but I think he gets too cute at times. On the other hand I give him credit for getting this far with so little

I think its a despite him thing.

Vogt is a very good manager. 25 teams would hire him in a New York minute if he became available.

Good they can have him

I tend to agree with you. I just think there is only so much blood you can squeeze from a stone

FESTA as the BULLPEN ACE!!!!

Ha — it's so weird that he wouldn't have trusted Festa in a meaningless game in midsummer but here he was today.

potty training?

Already maxed on power.

I like Cantillo but Bibee would have been my choice to start today. Has decent history in playoffs if memory serves — at least before his relief appearance this year

The return of the bunt as an offensive weapon has added so much to the game this season

I'm as much an analytics guy as anyone, but bunt hits are so much fun!

That inning could have had a very crooked number.

Lineup churn he's though. #9 and then top of the order up next inning

If a manager can get a team this far with Jo Adell as your cleanup hitter you have to be good.

HE IS THE ONE HITTING ADELL CLEANUP!!!!!!!!!!!

I mean it speaks volumes that the lineup improved so much when the likes of Adell and Lowe joined.

Adell is all he has! Who's better? Manzardo?

almost literally yes

I hope they don't go with "small market disrupters" as the narrative if it's Rays Brewers. These teams had the best record in their leagues this year! They're just good teams!

"Baseball is something else"

No one else to use!

Oh man I wanted to see them challenge Mesa again

More horribly coached actions… DONT RUN INTO THE OUT!!!

Slick as hell double play!

Its not a double play if the runner stops

It might still be. Go to first for the force then get Lowe into a rundown. Lowe isn't fast enough to start, stop, start again and be obviously safe at second

So what… make them work for the out instead of gifting it

I am afraid that wasting that 1st & 2nd with no outs was the Guardians last chance.

If this score holds, every playoff series will have been won by the team with the better record.

Which might be a good omen for the Brewers

They gotta stop walking Walls

Tired: walking Walls

Wired: walling Walks

Man, walking Taylor Walls twice is really inexcusable.

What he said.

Taylor Walls legacy game at this rate

Some are calling him "The Petey Halpin of Game 6"

This is the problem with Cantillo

WHY IN THE WORLD IS CANTILLO PITCHING TO DIAZ HERE!!!

oh good get Espino up now…why be prepared or anything?

You want to keep your best relievers saved just in case you need to hold a deficit at six!

I wish the lady in that commercial just did better brushing her teeth so that she didn't have to be ambushed

The correct pitcher IS in there now at least

The magic 8 ball is right once out of 10 times

I have a bad feeling about this

Caminero sure does hit it to the deepest part of the park a lot

I think he heard me

I could take the Cascade commercial if after the guy says "Well now we know" if the dishwasher guy said "Knowing is half the battle!"

I have switched to Rays radio–was listening to Cleveland so far (my TV seems to have died). I love Tom Hamilton and his vowel(s), but it was getting depressing.

Hot take… Hamilton is mostly just an old curmudgeon anymore… He was legit great once… that time ended about 5 years ago.

same applies to Wilbon on PTI

I love Hamilton but he can get a little bit get off my lawn at times

Summer would not be summer without Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez opining on subjects like the true purpose of Area 51

Honestly, I'd be very wary of a product that shows teeth whiteness change in one day

Ron Darling's always fun because I imagine it's James Woods

Ooh good one

I appreciate someone who can be invested in his team without being a jerk about it. As a Sox fan, I am very done with Will Flemming, who is invested but struggles with the not being a jerk part.

I used to work in the garden and listen to Joe Castiglione. I just can't get into Will Flemming and seldom listen on the radio any more.

I had only Castiglione for 7 years–couldn't afford cable in grad school. His is the voice of baseball in my head.

Its weird like that, I only had a few years of Herb Score… Im not THAT old… and he is the voice in my head.

Given how this is going its time for Vogt to pull Espino for Bibee

I used to get really mad about broadcasters when I was younger, but I kinda got over it. Because like Nickleback, they're not really FOR me.

Also like Nickelback, we're not sure who they are for

I was raised on Hawk Harrelson so all the other broadcasters just seem weird to me

And if you're hanging out here, and paying to read our site, you're not really the target audience for them either

Broadcasters are there for some dude who watches 8 games a year and flips on it becuase it's the ALCS and he needs someone to explain why theres' a guy named Petey

I admittedly was also confused about Petey into this series

As I've aged, I've realized I'm not the target audience for much of anything besides Fangraphs

I was the target audience for the skateboarding Ray

Well, I’d like to see ol Freddy Peralta wriggle his way out of THIS jam!

*Peralta wriggles his way out of the jam easily *

Ah! Well. Nevertheless,

Is BA saying DeLauter's name correct? I was under the assumption that it was De-La-uter

in the end, are we not all of the uter

Chicago accent … DA law tr… is how I say it.

Dan, I cut a joke about those Knowing is half the battle PSAs from my article today.

I'm both proud and ashamed to admit my first concert was Nickelback when I was in 7th grade. I don't really listen to Nickelback anymore, but I had fun and perhaps against my better judgment, l like that one album, "All The Right Reasons."

But also if I never heard a Nickelback song again, I would be content

Matt, buddy, they publish these transcripts.

Davey, the Fensler Films GI Joe videos was the hit of 2004 nerdy online people

Oh my God, I'd completely forgotten about those.

were

Peralta departs, having pitched more innings than any Cleveland pitcher has gotten outs.

Should you find yourself rowing home from Troy, take Nereus

So, Nereus is apparently for counteracting the wrath of Posidon. Who knew?

I feel like Tanner Bibee is on the roster as some sort of punishment, like he has there and sit watching and SEE how little they trust him to pitch

I had exactly the same thought

He knows what he did

Just have to wait for the robot clone to be done like Festa…

Why not pinch hit Genoa here?

"SEE TANNER, LOOK WE'RE EVEN LETTING J-RAM PITCH BEFORE YOU"

Have we addressed that Tampa Bay has played multiple ALCS games wearing "Devil Rays" uniforms? What happened to dropping devil from the name? It's one thing for throwback jerseys but this seems like a concerted effort to reestablish devil in the name.

It's a luck thing – apparently liked their record in them

It's in the fine print of their Fasutian bargain

They're pulling out all the theological stops for the ALCS

They went down to the crossroads, and he said “You can have viable starting pitchers…but I’m taking the naming rights back.”

Society realized that gradients are cool

I wrote a song in 2020 about how you can't just sell your soul to the devil and then get it back by buying new uniforms. Looks like I was right.

I started some weird pandemic hobbies too. I get it.

White Sox had the Pope, the Rays? Well…

Beat me to this. Quick on the draw

They saw how far the White Sox got and decided they wanted more

I like that they're just the Rays because I can imagine it's just a bunch of guys named Ray

Like the Cleveland Naps

The original Ray is in New York

or the Charlotte Bobcats

The Jays?

RAY… when someone asks you if you are a DEVIL, you say YES!

🎶These are the Rays I know I know 🎶

If the Rays get the WS and get Brewers to an elimination game, they should choose then to whip out the never-before-seen red-and-black Tampa Bay Devils unis full of death imagery

"Nate Lowe, standing and smiling"

Not watching TV all year and then watching commercials during the playoffs is an Interdimensional Cable fever dream and also makes me feel bad about humanity

Ads represent us at our worst

The founding fathers really screwed up putting election season during the mlb postseason. I hate that I watch way more network tv when political ads are most frequent.

Believe me its worse in Ohio

I live in Utah and I even get the Ohio and Texas ads! Like why guys

but you'll have clean dishes and teeth

and you'll know just what to ask your doctor about if you have motion sickness and want to go on a boat chase

I'm watching via HBO because I don't really have TV, and there are no ads! It's been lovely, and made me glad the Brewers swept because Fox definitely does have ads.

This should be HBO's entire pitch to get more subs

Forgot about HBO! I've been watching via Sling like a chump!

What is a self driving network

I dont know but can it bring me my bag of Chipotle that is twice my volume?

The graphic in the Crest commercials suggests that sparkly toothpaste goes right into your bloodstream

Is that not how it works? I might be doing it wrong.

Only if you have gingivitis

Good use of the RH PH there Vogt… you genius!

There's a buffet right behind the Rays bullpen. Do you think the relievers ever ask for a snack?

They're not saying boo, they're saying BOOOOOOOOOOOS

Cam Booser, reliever who throws it exactly where he wants it. What universe is this?

(I think they're just cheering)

Booser has been so impressive. The Rays' Ashby.

New plan guys… lets get Baker's fingers greasy on fried food. We are going to need about 8 walks to win this as one will surely get caught stealing.

Who are the red-bearded Rays pitchers. They all look the same. Rasmussen, Baker, Booser, and I think at least one more. ?Kelly? It's kind of crazy

It's the new moneyball

Buck Showalter does *not* approve.

Cade Smith has spent a lot of time pitching from behind lately

Extremely nitpicking complaint: Darling has been saying "bulks pitcher" instead of "bulk pitcher" all postseason and it's driving me up a wall

Yale does *not* approve.

they're the ones who give up RsBI

That looked like a screwball

bang!

Wow, what a way to cap this series

Is exhausted Cade Smith > Tanner Bibee?

Nope

Hmmm, has Cade Smith pitched enough now?

That feels like the one that does it

Junior has just been camping on the high inside stuff all series

HE POINTED AT RANDY AND DID THE RANDY POSE!!!

I love that he pointed to Randy and hit the Randy pose. What a move.

loved that sound off the foul pole

I feel bad for Cade. He did every they asked this year and he just ran outta gas

Junior with a little LiDom flavor on his way to 1B lol

Big Papi meandered so Caminero could amble

Pallacio with the thermawrap on in the dugout. Stars, they’re just like us

Looking like the Guardians might need to Chase DeLaudanum

Could they bring Randy back? Would he come back for the $2.25 an hour plus tips that they'll offer him?

Look I am happy for Jr. but I just wish he still played for CLE… im not sure about this Myers guy

No income tax on the tips

330’ off the label is big time bat speed

The robot version of Megan Fox is not an improvement.

Like tears in rain

There's a non robot version of Megan Fox?

I like how Scotch-Brite makes sure you know that they're America's number one scour pad since that's really important to viewers

I DUNNO IF I CAN TRUST THE NUMBER TWO SCOURING PAD

You and I are not seeing the same ads

Are the tru tv/tbs stream commercials very different than broadcast?

apparently as we are both in Ohio? and I also did not get the scotchbrite add

Has the tree fallen in the forest?

I'm in California watching on tbs streaming

thought Dan was

Am I referencing things nobody knows WTF I'm talking about?

I'm on the stream

The internet has ruined a shared culture! /s

how long have been referencing commercials that only I am seeing?

Guardsball!

If it’s any consolation, I share your skepticism of second-place scouring pads as a principle, even absent any context.

October 19, 2026: Dan discovers that people are just listening to him and politely smiling and moving on

I mean, I genuinely have enjoyed it, and I'm not seeing ANY ads!

I haven't seen the scouring pad ads.

Neither have I. But I HAVE seen the bizarre Jay Leno car contest ads with the cello player. I doubt that plays outside of California but it is WEIRD

Listening to the game on MLB AtBat app, and what I’m getting is that the ads that no one likes are more entertaining than the game.

You getting the Byrna ads?

Like it probably just feels this way but it really really feels like every margin play has gone for the rays

I'm not convinced of the necessity of scouring pads. I just buy sponges with the coarse part on the back, and I have survived so far.

My wife bought the non stick pots. I was skeptical but I will never go back

I got a big set of Le Creuset as a graduation present 22 years ago. Enamel still intact.

Fielder positioning just slightly wrong, HR hits foul poll, Popup just stays in

I'm getting ads for America's vices and AT&T

HBO Max coverage is presented without ads by PayDay, the candy bar, so I'm going with that was a reasonably cheap ad buy…

Peanuts, one might say

My goodness.

What about the lying Sherrod Brown ads?

I've been getting those all month

The Pepsi ad with the 90s song about a crys*l bender gets me every time.

My current ad is telling me that my financial planner will definitely cheat at basketball

Thrivent reminds me of Vivint, who bamboozled me into an expensive home security system that I had to promptly remove and refund once I came to my senses

is walking the bases loaded bad

I did it lots in high school, and I'm still alive

7 more to go

my specialty was HBPing them loaded. More efficient

Patrick Bailey. Do it

Patrick Bailey could become the Aaron Boone of Marco Scutaros right here

Homer Bailey, World Series Hero?!

Do it for Buster!!

Ohhhh goodness Patty that’s two of em

Bailey will replay that 3-1 cookie in his mind for a long time

This could be the beginning of an epic collapse

suddenly looking great for my offhand prediction yesterday of 6-5

6

Ian Seymour… please

Very interesting

This is what happens when you don't look where you're throwing

This is the scenario I was dreading when they put in the 3-batter rule.

They need to stop doing that.

5

Should've seen less, not Seymour

Nothing to see here. It's just the northern lights.

That's textbook intentionally getting hit by Martínez. He turned away from the pitch while leaning into it. Well done

A Sam Antonacci special

Indeed, a beautiful example of taking one for the team.

you guys bought fries for Kelly too, Right?

Who is this pinch runner? I swear I've never heard his name before.

One offseason, I'd for MLB to tell umpires "Hey, you know that HBP rule that you've been ignoring 100% of the time about making an effort to avoid getting hit? Can we try enforcing that?"

Back in the day I feel like there were a couple of umpires who had the guts to call it. I haven't seen it in a long time.

Rocchio one of the preeminent wielders of dark magic in my experience

Spoken like a true White Sox fan

Dark as in he swings as if he’s in the dark? Crazy strike three swing

welp

Counterpoint: why should a batter have to make an effort to avoid getting hit?

They should not have to avoid getting hit, just avoid intentionally sticking something in the way to get hit, IMO.

Just 5 walks short

Rocchio didn't have his magic wand with him this time.

Jeez. Maybe shorten up the swing just a *smidge* there, Rocchio?

That was really damn scary for the Rays

That was probably the final scare

They will get top of the lineup leading off the 9th, too

Against Baker though. And he hasn't been Cade Smith'd (ie hasn't pitched in 9 consecutive games)

Kelly could have thrown a beach ball and Rocchio would miss it there

almost like you should save the PH for when it matters

He was swinging for the Keys

In fairness, it’s his job to do big damage as the no. 9 hitter.

I think the turn away from the pitcher but not actually get further from the ball move is a-okay (morally and aesthetically, not with respect to the rules that I won't claim expertise on). Actually leaning into it is a no-no in my book

I was taught that move too, and I appreciate it. But if I were king, I'd still say it should count as leaning into it. Because it is.

Rocchio has looked, uh, not great at the plate.

I have been wondering, if a batter is HBP by a ball in the zone but the ump allows the HBP, if the pitching team can ABS challenge

That's a great question!

A dog vet named Dr. Lobos? That sound suspicious

Tell me this was an ad

They should be able to challenge anything. Ask ABS if ketchup should ever be on a hot dog

Call confirmed. Yes

I'm against ABS now

was JRam subtly grooving to that music or was it just camera shake

Was just typing, “do you stick with Kelly to start the ninth given Baker’s velo loss?” Apparently the answer is no.

Oh they walked Walls again

clearly afraid of the mighty bat of Walls in this series

Yandy!

Welp.

The final nail!!

That was mostly Walls.

To be fair, if you walk Walls three times you deserve that.

Gotta get to Diaz, right?

That one feels like the dagger

Well, that's a quick way to get the runs back

TOD 10:55 PM

if you talk big stuff you better do big stuff!

OK, NOW bring out the chase de laudanum

"he's not only a good hitter, he's also comically muscular"

I like to imagine that Yandy is pronounced "y and y"

Or “Why, Andy?”

Depeche Mode misheard lyrics

I say it exactly how John Travolta says "Sandy?!" in Grease the first time he sees Olivia Newton-John after their time apart

Guys im not the oldest one in the chat anymore!!

I need more walks 🙁

Yandy! sounds like a birth control that has obnoxious commercials

Which only you can see.

Too bad for CLE there wasn’t a 5 batter rule

I love when they find a different camera angle that provides no useful information or visual

I’ll watch any angle of 112 to the back of the bleachers

Also… Im happy for Yandy I just wish he still played for CLE.. I am not sure about this BAUERS! guy…seriously this is a postseason of ex CLE players making CLE feel bad.

Lotta layers to this one

How do they get topical bumper music ready so quickly?

the AL Central sends its failed 1B to Milwaukee and weird things happen

Not at all sure Yandy should be jumping on guys for bear hugs. Seems like a great way to lose Martinez (?) for the WS with ruptured discs or something.

*stares in kendrys morales*

In 2013 David Ortiz had this thing where he would pick up Koji Uehara and carry him around after every playoff save. I was terrified one or both of them was going to get hurt.

I loved that team!

Man what a game

Since I'm 84, I doubt if you ever were.

whew I'm a mere 48

The AL central has once again been mercifully dispatched

We're getting a new champion

Now what do I do for the next 3 days?

Right?

OOTP?

Did he just make a Hurricane Milton joke?

I get some extra time to write my NLCS Dave Roberts report card

That's the one I've been looking forward to.

Glad you're the one writing it!

I expect carnage in the Vogt one!

Welp. The one WS matchup possible where I dislike both teams. Baseball ends a little early for me this year.

Will the FG team flet us know if there’s a Jeff Sullivan sighting in the celebration?

how can one dislike the brewers AND rays. That's pop on toast!

I mean, look at my flair. It’s more about loyalties (though I have always unreasonably hated TB’s uniform situation).

We’re in for quite a World Series I think

Looking forward to more exhilarating chat on Saturday night but lasting through this upcoming 4 day fast will be tough.

I think we should spend the next four days inventing a new stat that perfectly predicts the score in each game. Aaaaand go!

World Series is chalk. Payroll be damned both #1 seeds won the pennant

Enjoy the rest of the postseason folks. It's been fun.

Amazing that the rays have won two pennants this decade while spending no money at all.

I like the Rays green jerseys

How does the Rays farm compare to the Brews?

Beer>Skate

I think the Rays have oranges and the Brewers have barley and hops.

FG has the Rays #1 overall.

WS should be fun. See you folks there!

Good night all!


What’s the Guardians’ Hard-Hit Rate Hit Rate?

Jerome Miro Imagn Images via Reuters Connect

If you’ve been following the postseason closely, you probably know why every Guardians player celebrates a single by turning to their dugout and flashing their teammates a thumbs down. “When a Guardians hitter notches a single, he stands on first base, peers toward the dugout and flashes either two thumbs up or two thumbs down, depending on how hard he struck the ball.” That’s how The Athletic’s Zack Meisel described the celebration back in July, in an article documenting the remarkable way that Steven Kwan was turning things around after a dismal start to the season.

The celebration is actually more specific than that, though. The Guardians aren’t just indicating whether they hit the ball hard. They’re indicating whether it met Statcast’s official threshold for a hard-hit ball. Travis Bazzana explained the premise to some sort of FanDuel-affiliated Instagram influencer at the All-Star Game back in July:

“Yeah, so it’s funny. When you hit it hard, if you hit it over 95 mph, you’re supposed to give a thumbs up. And if you hit it a little soft, like dink hit or groundball, it’s a thumbs down. The joke in today’s game is you want to hit the ball hard, you want to hit the ball in the air. And so it’s like, ‘Oh it’s a bad hit if I hit it soft.’ It’s kind of a funny joke.”

If you’re wondering why Bazzana felt the need to bookend the explanation with avowals that the joke was indeed funny, it’s because he delivered it with all the enthusiasm of a recently dissected frog. Clearly, life has taught Bazzana that if he wants someone to pick up on the fact that he’s telling them a joke, he’ll need to say so explicitly both at the beginning and end of that particular instance of hilarity. I would love to see him attempt stand-up comedy. Read the rest of this entry »


Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 10/19/26

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: St. Louis Cardinals – Major League Strategy Fellow

Direct link to application (please see job details below):

Major League Strategy Fellow


Major League Strategy Fellow

Job Summary:
This role will support the St. Louis Cardinals Major League team through baseball research, statistical analysis, strategic modeling, and the development of analytical tools and reports. Working closely with the Manager of Major League Strategy, this position will help identify opportunities to improve baseball decision-making, evaluate existing strategies, and develop new analytical capabilities supporting the Major League club. This role will collaborate with Major League Strategy personnel, coaches, and Baseball Development staff to translate research and data into practical baseball applications. The position will be based primarily in St. Louis and will be expected to work on the Major League team’s schedule throughout the season, including Spring Training, evenings, weekends, and holidays as needed.

Job Duties:

  • Conduct baseball research and statistical analysis to support Major League game preparation, in-game strategy, player evaluation, and broader baseball decision-making
  • Develop, maintain, and improve analytical models and tools that inform Major League game strategy and baseball operations
  • Work with the Manager of Major League Strategy to identify, prioritize, and investigate research questions with potential Major League applications
  • Analyze player and team performance trends to identify actionable insights, evaluate strategic opportunities, and support continuous improvement
  • Develop and improve automated reports, data visualizations, and analytical applications that support Major League coaches, players, and staff
  • Collaborate with Major League Strategy personnel to integrate analytical findings into advance scouting, game preparation, and player support workflows
  • Design and conduct rigorous analyses to evaluate baseball strategies, validate analytical models, and assess the effectiveness of implemented initiatives
  • Collaborate with Baseball Development and other baseball operations personnel on research, modeling, technology, and analytical initiatives supporting the Major League club
  • Learn and operate certain baseball technology and video systems as necessary

Experience Required:

  • Strong analytical and quantitative problem-solving skills, with the ability to independently investigate complex baseball questions
  • Proficiency in SQL and at least one analytical programming language, such as Python or R, with experience developing reproducible analyses and statistical models
  • Strong understanding of statistical inference, model validation, and the limitations of observational baseball data
  • Experience with statistical analysis, predictive modeling, and research methodology
  • Strong ability to communicate clearly and concisely in written, verbal, and visual formats
  • Ability to translate complex analytical findings into practical recommendations for baseball decisionmakers
  • Strong understanding of baseball decision-making and the ability to frame baseball questions as rigorous analytical problems
  • Experience working with modern baseball data, including ball-tracking and player-tracking information
  • Ability to develop clear, accessible data visualizations, reports, and analytical tools
  • Strong attention to detail, intellectual curiosity, sound judgment, and a willingness to challenge and refine existing assumptions
  • Ability to manage independent research projects while responding effectively to time-sensitive Major League requests
  • Ability to collaborate productively with coaches, analysts, and baseball operations personnel
  • Ability to handle sensitive baseball information with professionalism and confidentiality
  • Experience conducting original baseball research or developing statistical models is preferred
  • Experience developing analytical applications, automated reporting systems, or decision-support tools is preferred
  • Familiarity with machine learning, optimization, and advanced statistical methods is preferred
  • Experience in professional or collegiate baseball operations, research, or analytics is a plus

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the St. Louis Cardinals.


How I Voted for the 2026 Fielding Bible Awards: Infield

Troy Taormina and Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

For the third consecutive year, I voted for the Fielding Bible Awards, Sports Info Solutions’ annual recognition of the best defenders in major league baseball. They’re a Gold Glove equivalent for the majors as a whole, created by SIS and John Dewan in 2006. A panel of video scouts and baseball experts vote for five players at each spot; there are also awards for the best multi-position defender, the defensive player of the year, and the defensive team of the year. The awards will be released this Thursday, October 22, and this article will be updated to note the winners once they’re announced. Update: the winners have been announced, and are denoted by asterisks below.

Voting for any award is a prestigious honor, and voting on this panel has great personal import to me. Over the years, the panelists have included basically every writer who got me into baseball statistics when I was younger. Bill James, Peter Gammons, the founder of Strat-o-Matic – you get the idea. It’s a group I’m honored to be a part of, and I take my voting responsibilities very seriously. To that end, I spent some time this year updating my previous voting methods. Let me walk you through it.

Earlier this year, MLB Senior Data Architect Tom Tango did some work on blending multiple defensive systems together. I had actually landed on a similar method after discussing my inaugural ballot with Tom two years ago, but there’s never a bad time for a refresh. I started with Tom’s approach, added in Baseball Prospectus’ DRP as an additional number, and created blends for each position group based on how well each metric tracked itself year-to-year, as well as how well it predicted other metrics from one year to the next. Of note, I moved around my infield weights a bit, increasing the importance of DRS; it has narrowly been the best metric in the post-shift-ban world, a change in defensive rules meaningful enough for me to strongly prefer sampling from it for my initial rankings. Read the rest of this entry »


After Forcing Messick Into an Early Exit, Rays Take 3-2 ALCS Lead

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Rays are one win away from their third trip to the World Series. After pulling away from the Cleveland Guardians late in Game 4 for a 7-3 victory, the Rays scored a run in each of the first three innings of Game 5. While they left six men on base over that span, they forced Guardians ace Parker Messick to work so hard that he lasted just two innings, and because the game remained within reach, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt called upon four of his best relievers to record four outs or more. Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen stifled the Guardians, holding them to one run on four hits over seven innings, and a trio of relievers shut the door for a 3-1 victory and a three-games-to-two series lead. The series now heads back to St. Petersburg, and because the travel day was erased by Friday night’s rainout, the Rays will have the opportunity to clinch the pennant at home on Monday night.

For as great a rookie season as Messick had, the 25-year-old lefty has been anything but dominant during the postseason. He lasted five innings in just one of his three previous starts while putting up a 4.13 FIP and 5.25 xERA to go with a comparatively tidy 3.09 ERA in 11.2 innings. If a 15.1% walk rate, more than double his regular season mark of 6.6%, has been the primary culprit, his previous workload may be a contributing factor as well. Messick ranked fourth in the American League with 186.1 innings — the most of any rookie since 2012 — and with his postseason work prior to Sunday, he had pushed his odometer to 198 frames, up from a combined 138.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2025.

After pairing Messick with backup catcher Austin Hedges for all but one of his starts in 2026 — David Fry caught the first three innings of his September 27 outing — Vogt called upon Patrick Bailey instead… on the basis of his offense. That’s an odd thing to say about a catcher with a career 75 wRC+, and an anemic .146/.213/.183 line when he was traded from the Giants in May, but the 27-year-old backstop has been a credible threat at the plate since joining the Guardians, and he entered Sunday having hit .333/.379/.556 (163 wRC+) during the postseason, with a homer and a single off Rasmussen in Game 1. Said Vogt before the game, “With the way Patty is swinging the bat, [I] just wanted to keep his bat in the lineup, and you know, obviously there is some risk. There’s some concern with Patty never having caught Parker. But you know what? If I’m going to trust two human beings to go out and navigate a game, it’s Parker and Patty.” Read the rest of this entry »


Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 18, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.

Hey! Everyone, we got a dinner-time game today, so we won't be up late, but we do have NFL football to compete with. Though the Tampa Bay game just ended. And the Browns already won.

man, "And the Browns already won." feels like a sentence from an alternate timeline…

Tampa. Need them to win pennant to cash this ticket. They’ve done me well. Al east cashed. I need two more wins. I love fan graphs, love the site. I really appreciate the service.

Sigh…

Think the ball is carrying better today

for sure

o/u number of times Messick growing up a Rays fan is mentioned?

It's still weird to me that we're at the point where guys in the big leagues "grew up as" as a Rays fan. They're not that old and they didn't really have fans their first decade

Depends how long he lasts, not off to the greatest start here…

What are you guys talking about?

Baseballs?

He had to challenge that!

Terrible challenge

But not this one.

It’s still way too early for this.

According to last night its time to bring the infield in

The challenges have been just bizarre all postseason.

That bobble by Rocchio could turn out to be the play of the year.

Still a lot of baseball left here

Guards have not been playing clean D the last couple, and they really have to for Guardsball to work

I feel like in the regular season, you load the bases like that and 3 plus runs score. Postseason you get dinged one run, and no one scores again until the 7th inning.

This postseason in particular seems to be selecting for better pitchers moreso than better hitters

How much does this start lead to questioning starting Bailey over Hedges with Messick?

I am trying to understand why DeLuca didn't challenge the 2-0 pitch. The leverage index couldn't have been much higher and his body language said he knew it was a ball.

wanted more than one run!

Use challenges when the leverage calls for it. i

We also don’t get an outfielder running over the parabolic mic guy in the regular season either.

I know hitting is tough but a major leaguer should not swing through those two fastballs in the heart of the zone.

hate both of these teams

Upholding the Yankee fan stereo types… "if we cant win I hate everything and everyone" lol

I can't judge. I hate them back.

people have ask for a "Neither" option in the polls, but that was more for the Yankees games.

no like i particularly hate the guardians' fake offense for how much it gets praised as the only "real baseball" and the rays now adopting it over the past few seasons. swing for the fences like a real team or at least put up a Brewers-level team OBP

cry more… im thirsty

oh yeah? i will

The babip gods are making their presence felt here

How much longer can you ride Messick here?

mostly tough babip luck

The infield shifts have ummm not worked… those were both easy outs/potential double plays

check swings feel like the hardest thing for me to see in real time from CF cams. I’m wrong all the time.

Hi everyone!

What a gift for Messick.

no team deserves to have given up 2 runs on 5 hits in 2 innings of allowing a .188 xBA as much as cleveland

You watch a LOT of CLE games for a Yankee sellout shill.

you think i'm watching this

not sure you know where you are let alone what you are watching

I get it Sean… Ill back off. Just dont like the trolls and wanted to push back a bit. Most Yankee fans are not like this.

Pretty sure Junior would swing at a ball into the stands

Is that Ronald Acuña ad for Kalshi any less weird with the volume on?

I’d say it’s more weird

It's much weirder with the volume on

He lives in a tunnel under home plate, is that the premise??

Yes and you should bet on it or something?

I bet he actually lives in a house.

THAT should be a Kalshi bet

Keebler Elf tree.

Probably a large one.

Wow what a catch

A good poll would be which commercial do you hate the most?

Liberty Biberty is in the mix

There is an obvious answer to this question but it is not a fit topic for a baseball chat.

How will Cleveland cover 27 outs here?

Dunno but I'm excited to find out

Okay, this is random, but what about letting the winning team in the postseason pick a player from the opposite team for the rest of the post? I know, I’m crazy.

Wow, those 2014 Royals…

This would be a fantastic offseason/lockout article, actually. Say, postseason series of the 2020s where the victor takes a player from their opponent…perhaps Dan can ZiPS up the biggest additions

Simpson is in their heads

Broadcast booth has a collective Speed Boner.

they're just like me!

I mean yes, but can’t blame them

Is it a prerequisite for being a playoff broadcaster that you have to wish the game were still played like it was in the ‘80s?

That's how they train them in broadcasting school.

Rays are going to score 1 run every inning to win 9-0.

My hot take on bunting is that showing bunt should be treated as a swing and therefore often a strike

That has to be caught!!!

Rays relaxed on challenges

I think Simpson tried to high five the ump

The ump was holding the bat out but Simpson was too far away to grab it

RISP kings

With the lack of travel day after this it makes this feel more critical than the average 2-2 game 5. Loser is gonna have to really ride their A bullpen

Can we get a return interview with Jeff after the Rays win the WS to breakdown the minutia of the playoff decisions, positioning, pitching strategy… or is that too proprietary to ever become public?

Brew Crew might have something to say about that!

Brewers certainly look like the team to beat to my eyes

Who is the target audience for Limu Emu and Doug?

Stoners?

Haters of all that is good and right?

We should have Jeff and August face off against each in podcast before the WS starts.

* said with the caveat, I have no power to make this happen.

Are there Fangraphs alumni reunions at the Winter Meeting ever?

All the time, and Saberseminar. Though team employees have more restrictive schedules during Winter Meetings.

Wow

That was a fun bunt

This is a real fun team

Ill admit that was super smart and well executed.

Just a great opportunity to catch them off guard: relatively fast runner who can't really hit anyway, lefty reliever on the mound

If the WS is Milwaukee against Tampa, it should be a very entertaining defense and baserunning show. When was the last time there was more team speed than that in the World Series?

Probably one of those Royals teams with Dyson, Cain, Gore, etc

So quickly you forget Eckstein… FJM remembers…

But KC played the Giants, who I don't remember as overly fast.

I did not think Kwan had a chance in the world there

This inning has had some serious excitement

Kwan has the best weak arm in baseball

The one-run-per-inning thing looks to be in jeopardy.

oh well.

love me an exciting scoreless inning (when it's not my team failing)

The circumstances are setting up for Rasmussen to potentially go deep in this game

Cleveland really needs a baserunner. It's been a too long.

there ya go

the challenge furthered the stated goal.

I've been getting some other work done, and I swear every time I looked up the Rays were on base.

That's a good challenge.

What does it say about the state of these commercials all month that I'm grateful for a Wendy's ad?

it says you are sane

I like that they are bringing back the yellow packaging.

Now we need more solariums.

Magic 8 ball says Sabrowski

Holy cow

I mean, Walls certainly isn't in there for his bat

The margin feels much bigger than 3 runs

I've used the word feckless a lot in the last 30 minutes talking about Cleveland's offense.

Not one feck

In all seriousness the biggest difference in this game has been defensive positioning… Rays =Great, CLE=Bad

On the broadcast the other day, they compared Rasmussen to Doc Halladay… feels apt after this postseason

Is it just me or could Sabrowski be Messicks brother?

Another TB baserunner…I looked up at the TV.

Not for long!

That was the first time all series Bazzana did that right

Was he even running?

Do teams give players scouting reports for the likely defensive alignment they will face on a given night vs a given team vs a given pitcher… Do we know the level of detail in that sort of prep?

That was middle-middle to both Kwan and Ramirez

Alright Cleveland is awake

🥱

Here we go

now its up to everyones favorite former angels player

sike never mind

lol shortest half inning ever

I’ve been shouting at the team to take Rasmussen out but did he listen to me? Nooooo.

Welcome to my world with Vogt.

The reverse communication function on TVs never works as well as it should.

Stunning to see Cash, notorious for yanking pitchers, leave Rasmussen in.

Surprised Rasmussen doesn't use that changeup more

Brilliant to not challenge in order to forgo the strikeout in favor of the double play

That’s advanced fortune telling

ah, not challenging because you had the double-play pitch charged up, Rays are streets ahead

80-grade reference

Well of course you’re gonna lose weight if you have diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting

Ah man I was hoping all three would

Oh man I was hoping all three would hit each other

I don't love taking out your best hitter in the 8th

Has DeLuca hit a ball?

It's always an adventure with DeLauter

That is a very kind way of saying it

Not a huge fan of chasing this game with Cade Smith with no more off days.

Vogt strikes again!

Cleveland bullpen would look way deeper with Clase

Cade here is…questionable

two more ABs for cleveland though… Vogt betting on his bats

Is Stephen Vogt trying to mismanage the bullpen so badly that he gets fired and can take the open Seattle job so that his wife gets to be by her family again?

4D Chess

I think I want JoRam up to lead off the 9th if I'm Vogt

Unless I want the seattle job I guess

Kwan on fire today

Really bad swing decision, but it worked out for him.

nice wedge play there

The visiting bullpen labyrinth shot

Ahh man I like Booser

Feels like you have to go to Baker here, even if it burns him for the 9th

That was huge

If I’ve learned anything from these commercials it’s that Americans are very sick and very in need of insurance

Jake Bauers should get an insurance commercial gig

This is correct.

Yep

I take that back. We are in need of health care.

Oh wow was that pitch outside

There’s a lot of depressed vampires here tonight. I mean broken bats.

Yandy is…inevitable.

Wondering what happens if the Guards come back and we go to extras without Yandy and Junior.

Dogs and cats living together, it’ll be anarchy!

This is a lot of pitches for Smith given that he's basically guaranteed to pitch in every remaining game in this series

Martinez in there for defense?

Not the ball-catching kind. A different kind.

He is Vogt's talisman this year… Why there is one obviously terrible player who he decides to ride into defeat each year is another question all together.

White Flag warming up in the bullpen.

Poor guy.

Did you see the moon behind him?

Kwans game

That catch sounded weird, right? Like the double tap of a foul tip.

Ohhhh. It bounced off the wall — but THROUGH his glove.

Imagine if that matters… says the CLE fan hopefully.

Kwan trying to win this game himself

Kwan is the defensive replacement

Mesa (and Junior) need to stop being selfish

WOW

what a giant glove

Who is this guy in the AT&T commercials? His voice is odd.

He's the new Lily. Prepare to see him even more during the NCAA tournament.

He’s no Lily.

You people leave the sound on for commercials?

Yah…

I mean the remote is at least two feet away…

Given the nature of the adds in Ohio… off is the only option. Like leave the game muted to avoid the breaks only option.

Good AB dude

lol wth dude

oof

How many times do you practice that?

Knoblauch

i thought lowe tattooed that

in an elevator shaft

Adell … the first pitch and it was right in the heart again…

I mean I’m for the Rays but credit to the Guards, they never give up

may cost them tomorrow if the Rays get to Sabrowski, Gaddis or Cade…

But it may not!

Definitely one of those options

can't wait for the 6-5 game tomorrow

What am I going to do when the WS is over 😭😭😭

stare out the window and wait for spring… or read Fangraphs

Alright everyone. We got at least one more LCS game tomorrow. See you then!


Sunday Notes: NYY Prospect Dax Kilby is Debuting New Mechanics in the Desert

Dax Kilby is among the higher-profile prospects currently honing his skills in the Arizona Fall League. A 19-year-old shortstop whom the New York Yankees drafted 39th overall last year out of a Georgia high school, he ranks third in the Bombers system and No. 103 on The Board. Making up for missed time is part of why Kilby is in the desert. As Eric Longenhagen explained in his AFL preview, the 50 FV prospect dealt with a severe hamstring injury for much of 2026. He has shown promise with when healthy. This season, Kilby slashed a solid .242/.427/.403 with a 143 wRC+ over 154 plate appearances with Low-A Tampa.

How does the youngster view his early-career acclimation to pro ball?

“As I didn’t go to college, I’m seeing a lot better pitching,” Kilby told me on AFL media day. “I think that reveals a lot about who you are as a hitter. My first year, I was hitting a lot of ground balls [a 54.4% rate across 58 PAs] and using my speed to my advantage. That was definitely a change from high school, where the pitching isn’t as good and you can get into balls more often, for more power.”

Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski are both bullish on Kilby’s potential to do damage going forward. Addressing the 6-foot-2, 190-pound lefty swinger’s quick hands in his recent scouting notebook, Gawlowski wrote that “the way he’s able to pull them in and turn around velocity is in a class with the Max Clarks and Kevin McGonigles of the world.”

Kilby worked on mechanical changes in the weeks leading up to the AFL season. As he explained, the Yankees have him starting narrower and more open, the objective being two-fold: (1) allowing him to be more adjustable to different pitches, and (2) getting him more into his back hip, increasing the number of balls he is driving in the air. While his 40.2 GB% this year was an improvement from 2025’s pro-debut, it was still far from optimal.

Radically alternating his stroke isn’t part of the equation. Read the rest of this entry »


Who Needs a Dome? Rays Even ALCS in Frigid Game 4

David Richard-Imagn Images

If you’re keeping score at home, the ALCS has now gone back and forth twice. On a frigid Saturday night in Cleveland, Tampa Bay’s big bats finally woke up. The Rays beat the Guardians, 7-3, to win Game 4 and even the series at 2-2. The game was originally scheduled for Friday night, but pouring rain destroyed that plan. The low temperature and a light west-southwest breeze kept multiple would-be homers in the ballpark, and the rain-soaked grass slowed down balls in the outfield. However, it didn’t stop the Rays from scoring more than three runs for the first time in the series. The Rays were more aggressive than the Guardians in terms of asking their best arms to get big outs. They countered a Cleveland bullpen game with a surprising amount of starting pitching, and they got big performances from Yandy Díaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda. The series is now guaranteed to end in St. Petersburg.

Both teams had the option to adjust their pitching plans after the rain banged Friday night’s game. The Rays could have thrown their ace, Drew Rasmussen on regular rest, rather than scheduled starter Nick Martinez. However, they knew they still would have needed Martinez later in the series, and it made sense for manager Kevin Cash to stick with his plan. Things were more complicated for Guardians manager Stephen Vogt.

With none of his most trusted starters available on normal rest on Friday, Vogt had no choice but to plan on a bullpen game, even though his bullpen was overworked. The postponement gave his relievers a much-needed game of rest. It also gave him the opportunity to hand the ball back to Game 1 starter Foster Griffin. Getting some length from Griffin would have been huge, because the postponement meant that if the series went seven games, the teams would play four games in a row, once again taxing the bullpen. However, Vogt stuck with opener Shawn Armstrong, and was cagey with reporters before the game when asked whether Griffin would pitch. It seemed like his plan for cobbling together nine innings was very contingent on how the game unfolded. Read the rest of this entry »


Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 17, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.

Hi everyone! The weather looks clear though cold in Cleveland tonight. https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/oh/cleveland

Poll is the same as yesterday, since we didn't play that game.

elsewhere in the midwest, a millvillemeltdown realizes they forgot all their hoodies, sweatshirts, and light jackets when packing

I broke mine out again this morning.

Hello, Sean.

Hi!

i love hoodie weather. slightly less pleasant without the hoodie though

i borrowed a cardigan that is just a bit too threadbare to protect against the wind

Sweatshirt weather is the best weather.

14 hours at an analytics conference and I am ready for a break *immediately logs into FanGraphs*

Hopefully this is more fun. Though, any analytics conference sounds fun to me right now, too.

For those who have never been, CLE is not like SF in fall. That 43 feels like 35 at most.

i spent a bit of time in the bay area one december and was thoroughly unimpressed

my staunch opinion, and maybe this is informed by abnormal physiology, is that hoodie/sweatshirt weather extends past 0°C

to my chagrin, i was raised in the South

Any reason why neither team went with their game 1 starter tonight? Wouldn't they be on regular rest now?

hubris

a less flippant answer might depend on, like, the pregame work they did yesterday?

It looks like Griffin will be the bulk guy actually. Not sure why you keep Rasmussen out for a day though

granted he didn't look too sharp his last start

Would starting tomorrow line up his throw day with Game 7 potentially?

Maybe? But you'd think pitching today would only make him more rested for a possible game 7

May have something to do with now having to play 4 days in a row with no travel day.

Yeah I guess this makes it more likely you can use both Martinez and Rasmussen in a potential game 7, but that seems pretty specific

Over under on combined K's tonight? I am setting the line at 19.

on one hand, kwan and simpson. but on the other, Jordon Scott Adell

Ya Cle is not that K prone and neither is tampa (lowest in MLB)… but both pitching staffs are.

Love the full name lol… for reasons inexplicable to even myself, I still say Clifton Pfifer Lee whenever his name is mentioned

his name isn't joseph! which the mariners did not know when they let him rob 3 hrs

Tom Emanski is upset.

Zombie Tom Emanski is an available username

It would be a great idea to do an article about a sloppy defensive game from the point of view of Tom Emanski. I'm writing that down.

second

davy singlehandedly keeping notgraphs running like weekend at bernie's

Please make sure to include a supporting comment from Baseball Superstar Fred McGriff.

ohhh that's why butler is lawdog

Have people picked up on the change in the lyrics that the fans sing for Chase's walkup?

The “hit a homer”? Yeah, that’s pretty awesome.

Did not expect a Kyle Lohse name drop! Loved that guy

now why are you running on Victor Mesa Jr

Hello all!

Pretty fantastic stuff from Griffin that inning

Is nine pitches and two strikeouts good?

I didnt like the move at the deadline… I thought that they traded Will Dion (6+years) for Will Dion (.5 years)…. I was very likely wrong….

wills dion are fleeting, ephemeral… flags fly forever…

fleeting and ephemeral is exactly how I would have described Griffins first half at the time… lol… Like I said it was a bad take.

we'll see how dion develops, he looks to be solid at least

when did they add the "ball in dirt" animation to gameday

If Aranda runs through there, wonder if everyone is safe

i think it'd only work if they were trying to stay out of the dp

because if the pivot holds onto the ball, they can try and catch him between 2b-3b

That's probably true. Just looked weird to stop right in front of a force out

Yeah Aranda looks like he slipped a bit. It was a closer play than they made it out to be.

Petey Halpin always finds the action

With all the love in my heart, he caught that like a Petey

A remarkable athletic play that was like 20% derpy

What was the exit velo and angle on that?… I have a feeling on a warmer night that was out

110.7, 29 degrees, per Gameday

110.7, 29

110.7 at 29 degrees

"xba 1.000"

out in 17/30

So Petey covers 13 stadiums. News you can use

cheers guys!!

interestingly, both cle and tb in the parks it's not a hr in

If I back calculate an Xdistance from the numbers I get 433 which is definitely out in both…

depends heavily on atmospheric factors + spin

for sure. That was for neutral wind and normal cle temp/humidity… should have used game conditions

also was in that odd pocket where the tall wall starts

TNT doing an embedded Waste Management ad instead of letting the audience hear the crowd sing was a choice

thankfully hammy and rosey calling attention to it

Brutal for Walls

do they gotta put genao on for tbazz?

Boy with possibly 4 straight days of games I'd be trying to get more innings from Griffin who looked mostly really good tonight

If anyone here has any logic to how Vogt uses the bullpen ever let me know because I have given up… I think its literally a magic 8 ball.

if he goes to gaddis or smith today i'm going to be really disappointed

Pick the worst possible reliever and the worst possible time and prepare for disappointment. Just not Festa… he is a MYTH

If it's close he will absolutely use them

matt festa, zero innings pitched

espino this early bodes poorly for me

Espino being nasty makes me happy. Hopefully he gets a solid career

Yeah, even if he’s just a filthy reliever that would be great given we all assumed his career was shot

Legit think they should make him a short stint starter next year and just go for something like 120 innings… If the BB rate is under 4.5 he is going to be very very good.

he sure feels like a leverage guy rn

Googling MLBPA service time pension milestones…let’s get him to 4 years before they try to stretch him out again

i think bazz should not steal here. he probably will try to, though

Two big double plays in the fifth

1.000 ops Bailey was amazing while it lasted

That feels like something you can’t do and win

ya walking 2 guys for JCam is a bad plan

Guessing 116 on that one

Another 110 but absolutely smoked

Hit his spot at 98 and Junior did that. He’s so good.

gave up the run but one of the best things in baseball is a good outfield relay. Kwan played it well off the wall and made a quick throw, keeping one of the fastest players in baseball at 3rd

Tootblan?

Tootblan

contact play= not TOOTBLAN…???

So am I wrong that infield in is dumb here?

Seems like runs are nearly impossible to come by this postseason, so I get it

I mean, that was a heck of a pick by Lowe

The slide was 2 feet from home plate

My most dad quality is reflexively saying "Nice block" whenever I'm watching baseball, even if I'm alone in my apartment.

Also, hi

Guards have been doing this all post-season—stopping the big inning. They gotta feel pretty good with only one there.

ESPN win probability estimate says the Rays went from 79% WP after the Caminero double to 60% now. Huge escape there

Is the plan to pitch Peralta in this inning and start him in G6?

Center field is not where the hits are tonight

Middle infield is, though

I thought DeLauter probably should've caught that

That looked so catchable…

He was too busy pretending to attempt to catch it

Is that a swing by automated checks?

Ball dont lie I guess

Yandy if there were ever a time to challenge, that was it

Yandy is so committed to the never challenging bit

I do hope they go through with the new check swing rule they're testing in the minors

oof

This is a rough inning for DeLauter

OH NO

HE GRISHAM'D IT

Wow, DeLauter looking like a good DH today

Petey Halpin needs to play every position

infield in = dumb… I am vindicated?

If Cleveland scores 3, definitely.

Chandler Simpson hitting a ball >300 feet, what a time to be alive.

WHY NO THROW??? I know it was near pointless but so is not throwing

Guess no one is challenging anything tonight?!

too cold

So I missed this earlier, I assume Peralta is scheduled to be the game 6 starter and today is just a throw day, so no adverse consequence?

I dont know what that is in the bullpen but I am positive that it is not the REAL Festa….

Patty barrels makes way for Pummelin' Petey

Playoff Patty poking Posey in the eye

Jk Pummelin' Petey is getting pinch-hit for

Bailey for Tugboat I adored at the time… looks better every day.

Honestly if Buster Posey calls with a trade idea, just say yes

My Guardians fan friend has taken to calling Angel Martinez "Devil" because of his recent struggles

Back to back hits by Bazzana and Bailey:
107.8 EV, 21º, 374 ft.
107.9 EV, 20º, 375 ft.

As a Yankee fan, who is this person and what did he do to Ian Seymour

ah, good, more intense baseball for me

INFIELD IN=DUMB!

Guardsball! I yell over and over. My dogs are hiding under the bed but I can’t stop yelling Guardsball!

After the NL series, I’m not used to the bullpens allowing so many runs.

Resource scarcity. Used to be you had several Ashbys available. These days there’s just the one

If this is Festa now… I am going to start cheering for the Rays.

time to change that team flair then

This is the first time I’ve seen him throw and I’m enjoying his whole deal so far

Festa is by no means terrible… which is why it was soo soo odd that he was never used to this point and still kept on the roster… it was/is maddening.

I just got home from seeing the Nathan Fielder movie about the fraud lady, which is completely insane. I gather there has been a lot of Ray and then more recently some modest Guard.

A comedy? Love me some NATHAN FOR YOU

It's supposedly a documentary, but with Fielderish layers.

You did this Vogt… You broke me!

Seymour almost just ruined the entire game for the Rays

There’s still time

I will say this, the Guards are showing why they deserved to win over CWS

Vogt’s going to start pitching everyone on 3 weeks rest now

Booth gassing up Seymour to get 9 outs fell apart fast.

Yah they clearly saw Seymour

The slo mo replays of Guards hitting him really highlighted his head whack. It was probably 50% camera angle and 50% knowing the result of the AB but it looked wild.

Maybe Aranda is deaf like Nate Lowe

Ah we're into the alliterative part of the Tampa Bay bullpen

Pitchers are supposed to pitch STRIKES, right?

Nope, supposed to get OUTS.

Thats the game with the bigger ball and the smooth pieces of wood on the floor.

Soooo close

Pitcher #653

Smith is up… WTF VOGT!@@!@!@@!!!

It's his bullpen day

He's committed to driving you away

All catchers hate pitchers.

I think that ball is still going

It’s in the lake, but not the one you’re thinking of

ooh

I wonder if Cam Booser ever faced Seth Beer in the minors.

Guys its been good… Vogt is about to bring in Smith because the 8 ball (PG version) said so…. Im gonna need a new hobby… suggestions?

Saved by the actually good decision to leave in Festa's robot clone… lets bring back a bit of the flair…

Well, that might just about do it.

He doesn't hit that off Smith! /s

Oof this game was interesting for a bit.

[SpongeBob 'aight imma head out' meme]

And now a new pitcher burned… WHY? JUST WHY???

I’m surprised that went out

I thought it was going foul off the bat. I am … not a smart man.

Ange- err, flappy bois in the outfield carried it a bit farther

Same

I was really enjoying Festa’s whole deal

i completely fell asleep and woke up to the chekov's festa

I am not joking when I say that Vogt is so bad at bullpen strategy that he should be removed from all decisions.

TNT needs to check back in on that sad lady with the row of empty Miller Lites

Not impressed with the home ump

Really bringing in Baker?!?

it sounds like he's been warm, you don't want to (ahem) "dry hump" him too much

Cash is jealous of Vogt's MOTY trophies.

lol even the score bug knew that was a ball

Junior having a hard time finding the ball

Whoa, Cantillo bullying Junior with three straight changeups.

Anyone else think Tampa should have tried to finish this out without using Baker? You potentially play 4 days in row here and at minimum need to play three days in a row. I feel like I’d try to preserve him in a non-save situation

Ya this is a horrible horrible use of Baker.

Cash is honoring Joe Maddon by bringing his closer into a non save situation in Cleveland. Surely these extra reps won’t come back to bite Tampa

So which of these teams would be more of a challenge for MIL? I feel like either staff would be vulnerable to the relentlessness, but TBR could at least hit some homers to compensate, particularly if Junior ever wakes up.

rays absolutely a better team. cleveland is more pesky than good

I think of Tampa as like 85% of what Milwaukee put together. They do all the same things just not as good.

Cleveland would be a tougher series for Milwaukee. Cold weather, playoff tested, better rotation and bullpen

its 7 games I would ballpark the actual odds difference at around 1.5% in favor of the Rays vs MIL vs CLE

good call by hammy, baker's velo is down

Series is tied! We might get 7 games here.

the proximate brewers fan: yes… ha ha ha… YES!!!

he's sitting 92 after averaging 96ish?

Alright everyone! Let's do this again tomorrow around 5PM ET.