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A Useless Summary of Position Players Pitching

August 20, 2018

Andrew Romine isn’t a pitcher, and yet, on Sunday, Andrew Romine pitched. So did — in another game — Chase d’Arnaud. Two days before that, Charlie Culberson took the mound, and so did — in another game — Andrew Romine. Scott Kingery and Roman Quinn pitched the day before that. Brandon Dixon pitched a few days before that.

I’m sure you’ve read by now more than enough summaries of how position players are making more and more appearances on the mound. It’s already happened 14 times in August alone, a month that isn’t even two-thirds complete. This is apparently just a part of the game now — rare, but no longer rare and so exciting. Some people still like it. Some people are troubled. Just in general, from the simplest perspective, it’s probably not good to have pitching done by non-pitchers.

I’m not here to make any suggestions. I’m not here to conduct any meaningful analysis. I just figured we’ve had enough position players pitching that we might as well take a quick look at some numbers. What’s actually taken place so far in 2018? Here are teams sorted in descending order of innings thrown by non-pitchers. You also see the total runs allowed by those position players.

The Diamondbacks and Brewers lead the way, at 6.1 innings. Viewed another way, I guess you could say the Diamondbacks and Brewers are in last place. Five teams haven’t yet had a position player pitch — the Pirates, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rockies.

Now here are teams sorted in descending order of innings thrown by non-pitchers against them. You also see the total runs scored against those position players.

The Dodgers are in first, having batted for eight innings against non-pitchers. Over those eight innings, they’ve scored eight runs. Five teams have yet to face a position player pitching — the Pirates, Tigers, Giants, White Sox, and Mariners.

At last, here are team run differentials, considering only innings thrown by position players for and/or against:

In what we’ll simply refer to as “stupid baseball,” the Nationals are the winners, having outscored their opponents by six. The Dodgers have outscored their opponents by five. At the other end, the Phillies are running away with things. While they’ve scored three runs against position players, their own position players have combined to allow 14, yielding a run differential of -11. On the plus side, those runs are basically pointless, since almost every single position-player pitching appearance comes when the game has already been decided. The Phillies’ overall run differential might be 77 runs worse than the Braves’, but at least part of that can be ignored. When position players pitch, it’s hardly regular baseball.

Two teams remain who haven’t yet seen a position player pitch for or against. Those teams are the Pirates and Tigers. For those clubs, at least, the act might retain some of its novelty. There’s still another week and a half before rosters expand, and position players stop doing this. We’ll see if the two ballclubs hold out.

The Mariners Still Look Like an All-Time Anomaly

by Jeff Sullivan

August 20, 2018

The Mariners lost two of three to the Dodgers over the weekend. It wouldn’t be fair to say the series was an accurate representation of the Mariners’ season, but it works as a convenient caricature. On Friday, the Mariners lost to the Dodgers by ten. On Sunday, the Mariners lost to the Dodgers by eleven. On Saturday, the Mariners beat the Dodgers, by one, in the tenth inning, on a walk-off balk. The Mariners avoided a sweep, and, indeed, the Mariners actually still have a better record than the Dodgers do. Over the three games, though, the Mariners were outscored by a margin of 27-7. Sunday was the Mariners’ worst loss of the year.

It’s hardly new information that the Mariners’ winning percentage and their run differential don’t exactly match up. This has been true for a matter of months, and it partly helps to explain why the AL West is as close as it is. But before we all just collectively get used to something, we should take a step back so we can reexamine precisely what’s been going on. Although the Mariners have slipped out of playoff position, they’re still within striking distance of both the A’s and the Astros. The Mariners are 3.5 back in the wild-card hunt, despite a run differential of -42. The Rays are 7.5 back of the Mariners, with a run differential of +10. The Angels are 8.5 back of the Mariners, with a run differential of +39. The Twins are 11 back of the Mariners, with a run differential of -22. Every year, there are run differential overperformers and underperformers. Yet this is far more extreme than is typical.

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Daily Prospect Notes: 8/20/2018

by Eric Longenhagen

August 20, 2018

Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Mark Vientos, 3B, New York Mets
Level: Appy Age: 18 Org Rank: 7 FV: 45+
Line: 3-for-3, 2B, BB

Notes
The Mets have made effectual changes to Mark Vientos’s swing since he signed. His stance has opened up and his hands set up in a way that has enabled him to lift the ball better than he did in high school, especially pitches on the inner half. His hands are more alive and powerful than they were a year ago, and Vientos has launched balls out the other way even when he doesn’t fully square them up. His size/build might eventually cause a tumble down the defensive spectrum (he’s been projected off of shortstop to, at least, third base since he was a high-school underclassman), which would mean power alone won’t be enough to enable him to profile. His early-career contact rates are positive, especially considering Vientos doesn’t turn 19 until December.

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The Unlikely Ascent of Oakland’s Bullpen

by Rian Watt

August 20, 2018

There are a lot of things going right in Oakland these days. For one thing, there are early indications that a red-hot rental and home-ownership market might finally be cooling off, even if only slightly (and very tentatively), thereby bringing four walls and a roof somewhat closer to reach for hundreds of thousands of ordinary Americans in the Bay Area. For another, the unemployment rate continues to drop (although wage growth is persistently and irritatingly slow to rise). And for a third, the Oakland Athletics have been the best team in baseball (west of Jersey Street) for over a month.

For a team to go 22-8 over any stretch, as the A’s have just done since July 10th, when they were last 10 games back of the Astros, requires a lot of things to go right. It requires Tony Sipp to hang a slider to Matt Olson. It requires a sweep of Texas on the road. It requires, in short, a little bit of that fairy dust that seems to have been scattered around the HoHo Coliseum since the days when Scott Hatteberg and Jonah Hill wandered those green fields — and the A’s have had that and all these things. But it also requires a lights-out bullpen, which the A’s have manifestly also had in recent days, and it’s this feature of the club’s recent experience on which I’d like to focus for a moment, because it wasn’t clear at the beginning of the season that this level of bullpen success was something the A’s would achieve or even necessarily aspire to.

The 2017 edition of the Oakland bullpen mostly sucked. By FIP (4.44), it was the ninth-worst in the game, by ERA (4.57) the sixth-worst, and by WPA, which is as close a measure as you can get to answering the question “was this bullpen good when it counted?” it was rock-bottom — the very worst in the game. If all you knew about the 2018 edition of the A’s pen is that it would no longer include Ryan Madson (who recorded a 2.06 ERA last year), you might project that it would take a step backwards this year, even after accounting for the winter additions of xwOBA darlings Ryan Buchter, Chris Hatcher, and Yusmeiro Petit in a busy offseason for Billy Beane.

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The AL West Now Has a Race

by Jay Jaffe

August 20, 2018

Houston, you have a problem. Less than two weeks ago, I suggested that the battle between the A’s and Mariners for the second AL Wild Card spot was “practically the last race standing in the Junior Circuit.” At the time, the A’s — who had won 33 out of their last 44 games — were still 5.5 games behind the Astros, who themselves had rebounded from a five-game losing streak (July 25-30) to win six out of seven against the Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants. A change in the pecking order atop the AL West appeared unlikely; at the time, our playoff odds gave Oakland just a 1.0% chance of winning the division.

Since then, the Astros have lost seven out of nine to the Mariners, Rockies, and A’s, with Saturday’s 7-1 loss to Oakland knocking the two teams into a tie and marking the first time June 13 that the Astros didn’t have sole possession of first. Though they regained it with Sunday’s 9-4 win (Justin Verlander’s 200th, a topic I’ll address in an upcoming post), Houston now owns a 7-8 record in August, an 11-14 since the All-Star break, and 20-19 since July 1. Over all of those stretches, they’ve outscored their opponents (177-148 for the longest one), and they still own the AL’s second-best run differential (+200), but the defending world champions have nonetheless frittered away their advantage. They’re still the overwhelming favorites in the division, but even after Sunday’s loss, the A’s odds are up to 9.6%; in the season-to-date version, based upon this year’s stats instead of our depth-chart projections, they’re up to 25.6%.

Perhaps most disconcertingly, the Astros are 10-15 against teams .500 or better since the start of July. They’ve fattened up by going a combined 8-1 against the White Sox, Tigers, and Giants, but lost three of five to the Rangers. Of their eight other series in that span, they’ve won just three (over the Angels, Dodgers and Mariners), lost three (two to the A’s, one to the Mariners), and split two (both against the Rockies). Overall, they’re just 37-36 against teams with records .500 or better, which is better than the A’s (31-39) but worse than the Mariners (38-35), and miles behind the Red Sox (37-22) and Yankees (36-24). Against those four teams, they’re a combined 19-20 this year; throw in the Indians (4-3) and they’ve played just .500 ball against the collection of teams they’ll have to beat in order to return to the World Series.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/20/18

by Dan Szymborski

August 20, 2018