I wrote last week about how, based on the early evidence, Patrick Corbin is McCullersing. That is, of course, a reference to Lance McCullers Jr., who has taught us that, if you have a really good pitch, you should just throw it a whole bunch more. McCullers has a great curveball, so he throws a lot of his curveball. Corbin has a great slider, so he’s started to throw a lot more of his slider. It’s a strategy that’s almost stupidly obvious, but it’s taken a while to catch on. Such is the power of baseball tradition.

There’s another way to think about this. You can throw more of a good pitch, but then, all the pitch rates have to add up to 100%. So if you’re throwing more of one thing, that has to come at the expense of something else. Typically, what we see is more secondary stuff, at the expense of fastballs. And this is how we get to talking about Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka already pitches for a team that’s opted to de-emphasize the heater. But even within that context, Tanaka is extraordinary. Tanaka is working away from his hard stuff. He’s been doing this for a while already, but he’s gotten to the point where he’s throwing hard pitches as if he were a knuckleballer without a knuckleball.

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For a really long time, there was little doubt about the best pitcher on the planet. Clayton Kershaw has been on an epic run that will land him in the Hall of Fame. Over the past two seasons, Kershaw has still been brilliant, but he’s averaged 24 starts and 162 innings instead of 32 starts and 222 innings. That slight downturn in health has allowed arguments to pop up debating whether Kershaw is still the best pitcher in baseball. Last season, Max Scherzer was the takeover candidate of choice. The 2016 National League Cy Young winner followed up one great performance with another by claiming the award again. Ignored in those debates was a pitcher who has been better than both over the past two seasons and projects to be better this year: Corey Kluber.

On Monday, Kluber pitched eight scoreless innings, striking out 13 batters against one walk and just two hits. After three starts, Kluber’s ERA is 1.57, his FIP is 2.33, and he’s been worth 0.7 WAR. That’s great, but it doesn’t really separate him from a bunch of good pitchers off to great starts, including Scherzer, Dylan Bundy, and Gerrit Cole. Let’s extend to the past just a little bit more to get a sense of how Kluber has done lately. The table below shows the top pitchers by WAR since the All-Star Break last season.

Kluber is so far out ahead of the pack, the 1.3 WAR difference between him and Severino is nearly double the difference between Severino and 11th-place Scherzer. Combining his great second half with his strong start to this season, Kluber has struck out 169 batters and walked only 15. Since the All-Star Break last season, Kluber has been the best pitcher in baseball, and it isn’t particularly close. To really take a look at the best pitcher in baseball, it probably helps to take a bit of a longer view. Read the rest of this entry »

Last month in a piece for ESPN Insider, I was tasked with predicting what players might benefit from a change of scenery.

In that piece, this author cited a 2016 paper titled “Turning up by Turning Over” published in the Journal of Business Psychology, which studied 712 players who changed teams in the major leagues from 2004 to -15. The study concluded there are benefits for certain players in changing teams, particularly players that had been in decline. The study asserted there is a real change-of-scenery effect.

Maybe this effect is really just regression to the mean, teams acquiring players after down years. But there is perhaps something to be said for the energy and clean slate of a new environment. There’s also something to be said for being exposed to new ideas and colleagues. While Craig Edwards noted earlier today that the Pirates may have a new emerging ace, their former No. 1, Gerrit Cole, was one of the players I included in my piece about changes of scenery. I wasn’t alone in the belief, as many suspected, that he could benefit by moving to Houston.

And through two starts, the Astros, a team with an overwhelming collection of talent and a 100-win projection, look like they might be developing the last thing the rest of the American League wanted to see: another front-line pitcher.

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Episode 808
Meg Rowley recently collected and published FanGraphs’ staff predictions for the 2018 season. In this episode, she both (a) examines those predictions and (b) endures the host as he reviews last year’s edition of the same exercise. Also discussed: how Shohei Ohtani is likely of some benefit to the Angels but probably less benefit to the Mariners.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min play time.)

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The baseball season, as people will often tell you, is a marathon, not a sprint. It might be even more like an ultra-marathon, one of those races that lasts a hundred miles in the middle of the desert. Once it gets going, the regular season feels like it goes on forever. The idea here is to downplay the significance of any short spurt. There’s an awful lot of time for the standings to normalize. At some point, every team will look very good, and every team will look very bad.

Now, I’ve never run a marathon, myself, but I do know that, among competitors, the splits are critical. When you’re trying to keep up with champion runners, it can be incredibly difficult to make up for a substandard start. That is, even in a marathon, a slow first mile is a problem. A fast first mile can be good or bad — this is where the comparison breaks down. It’s harder for a baseball team to over-tax itself in the first handful of games. But anyway, starts matter. The baseball season has started, and as a consequence of the results, we’ve already seen some numbers shift around.

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Xander Bogaerts has been on the major-league scene for so long that it’s easy to forget he’s still just 25 years old, young enough to be considered part of what is perhaps the best crop of young shortstops in the game’s history. He’s had his ups and downs through his four full seasons, with the second half of last year representing a particularly down one.

His recent trip to the disabled list with a non-displaced fracture of the talus bone in his left ankle might seem like a continuation of Bogaerts’ misfortune. But there’s good news: not only is the injury expected to keep Bogaerts sidelined for only 10 to 14 days but the shortstop’s performance to begin the season has rivaled Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius as one of the young season’s best. What’s more: the underlying indicators suggest that a fundamental change is partially to credit for Bogaerts’ success.

Bogaerts injured the ankle during the seventh inning of Sunday’s 8-7 comeback victory over the Rays. He had mishandled a relay throw from J.D. Martinez, and sped towards the Tampa Bay dugout, on the third-base side of Fenway Park. He stopped the ball before it could roll into the dugout, which would have added another run onto the Rays’ 6-2 lead, but came up limping after sliding into the dugout himself. Adding insult to injury, Joey Wendle, who wound up on third after hitting the Green Monster shot that Martinez relayed, scored on a sacrifice fly anyway once Bogaerts departed, though the Red Sox rallied for six eighth-inning runs to steal the game and climb to 7-1 on the season.

On Friday, Bogaerts had been the hero in the Red Sox’ 10-3 win, driving in six runs with a two-run double and a grand slam, both off Jake Faria. The outburst ran Bogaerts’ league-leading doubles total to seven; throw in his two homers and only Gregorius has more extra-base hits. Through nine games, Bogaerts is hitting .368/.400..711, good for sole ownership or a share of third in the AL in slugging percentage, wRC+ (213), and WAR (0.7).

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The Pittsburgh Pirates traded two of their best players over the winter, signaling a potential rebuild and teardown of the team that made the playoff three consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2015. Andrew McCutchen, the organization’s most recognizable figure since Barry Bonds left town, was the more notable of the departing pair in terms of significance to the franchise. In terms of value in the the near future, however, Gerrit Cole was almost certainly more important.

Not only is Cole likely to produce more wins than McCutchen in a vacuum this season, but the disparity in talent between him and his replacements is also larger. While McCutchen is worth roughly a half-win more than Corey Dickerson and Corey Dickerson’s platoon partners, Cole is expected to outpace the fifth spot in the Pittsburgh rotation by at least two wins. This is the trouble with trading away a No. 1 starter: he’s replaced not by the pitcher right behind him on the depth chart but rather by whichever name formerly occupied the sixth spot in the rotation. For the Pirates, that’s probably some combination of Steven Brault, Tyler Glasnow, and maybe Trevor Williams.

So, in terms of overall wins, the Cole trade is almost certainly a net-minus for the Pittsburgh rotation. That said, it’s very likely that there will be no deficit for the club at the very front of the starting five. Despite Cole’s departure, an ace still remains in Pittsburgh. In light both of his track record and his first two starts of the current season, Jameson Taillon seems very capable of taking over for the departed Cole.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a walk-off popup, a weekend brawl, booing Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper’s hot start and Byron Buxton’s slow (but not slowest) start, Xander Bogaerts, and Ian Happ, and then do a deep dive on Shohei Ohtani’s past, present, and future as a hitter and pitcher and the wonder of what he accomplished last week.

Audio intro: Genesis, "Your Own Special Way"
Audio outro: Tweedy, "Wait for Love"

Link to walk-off popup
Link to video of 2012 Astros two-error play
Link to Ben’s Ohtani article

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