What does it mean to be “underrated?” The label suggests public perception is not in line with actual value, which for whatever reason is obscured. The term gets tossed around often and recklessly, like many labels. But in the case of Brandon Belt, there is some merit in making the claim.

Since the start of the 2015 season, Belt ranks 11th in the majors in walk rate (13.6%). He’s tied with Carlos Correa and Edwin Encarnacion for 17th in wRC+ (135). Over the last three-plus seasons, Belt also ranks 16th in on-base percentage (.375).

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All the numbered prospects here also appear on THE BOARD, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. Click here to visit THE BOARD.

50 FV Prospects

Duplantier was held back in extended this year due to a minor hamstring issue but has had no arm issues as a pro after dealing with shoulder trouble at Rice. He sits 93-96, will touch 98. His delivery is odd, but it’s been a while since Duplantier has been hurt, so, for now, it’s not a concern. He projects as a mid-rotation starter.

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The Angels have struggled recently, losing seven out of 10 games to the Twins, Astros, and Rays and falling from a tie atop the AL West to 3.5 games back. Over the weekend, though, Mike Trout did something special. While going 3-for-8 with a double, a pair of homers, and four walks in 12 plate appearances against Tampa Bay, he pushed his seasonal WAR (Baseball-Reference flavor) to 4.0 and his career WAR to 58.2. With that, he reached the JAWS standard for center fielders, the average of each Hall of Fame center fielder’s career WAR and his seven-year peak WAR.

Mike Trout is two-and-a-half months shy of his 27th birthday.

Mike Trout has played six full seasons and parts of two others — roughly a quarter apiece — in the majors.

Mike Trout has not played long enough to be eligible for the Hall of Fame.

Mike Trout is very, very, very good at baseball.

You probably knew most of the above, qualitatively if not down to the first decimal place, and after six-plus years of reading about his feats at the plate, on the bases and in the field, you might be somewhat jaded as to his exploits. Right now, he might not even the most popular Los Angeles Angel thanks to the virtually unprecedented two-way prowess of Shohei Ohtani, the Most Interesting Man in the World. Trout, aside from his baseball excellence and his earnest fascination with meteorology, is not that interesting, much to the chagrin of those who fret about Major League Baseball’s lack of a Lebron James-level Face of the Game.

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Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In the ninth installment of this series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Brad Brach, Daniel Mengden, and Kirby Yates— on how they learned and/or developed a specific pitch.

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Brad Brach (Orioles) on His Changeup

“”It’s weird. In college, my changeup was probably my best pitch, but when I got to pro ball [in 2008] I wasn’t able throw it. I don’t know if it was the minor-league balls or what, but I kept cutting it all the time. It was hard for me to throw strikes with it, so I pretty much got rid of it and started throwing a splitter.

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One of the more interesting deals of the most recent offseason was the Cubs’ three-year, $38 million pact with former Rockies swingman Tyler Chatwood. On the one hand, Chatwood had some virtues as a pitcher. On the other, in an offseason during which nearly every free agent received less than expected, Chatwood got $8 million more than Dave Cameron projected in his examination of the 2017-18 class.

Back in December, Eno Sarris wrote for this site that Chatwood, despite his apparent flaws, might be an adjustment or two away from a Rich Hill-type breakout.

You’ve heard of “spin-rate guys,” right? Well, Chatwood is absolutely a spin-rate guy. What’s interesting, though, is that he hasn’t converted that high spin into plus movement. Why? Well, it might have something to do with useful spin. Over time, Chatwood has dropped his arm slot to get more movement on his sinker and more ground balls, probably because he pitched in Coors. That robs his fastball of ride, though, and his curveball of downward movement.

An easy fix might be to just throw the curveball more. He only threw it 11% of the time in 2017. It got over 70% ground balls and above-average whiffs. Batters had a .164 slugging percentage against it last year. And that fits with the spin and movement on the pitch.

With about a quarter of the season in the books, now seems like a good time to check whether that adjustment has come and how the Cubs have fared on their investment.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about baffling flamethrower Jordan Hicks, Rich Hill‘s latest blister problem, the Orioles’ unlikely 13-hit, zero-run game, Albert Pujols‘ prospects, Ryan Zimmerman’s slow spring training and slower start, and more. Then they bring on writer Joe Sheehan (23:23) to discuss the Rays’ “starting Sergio Romo” strategy, whether it will catch on with other teams, the evolution of in-game management, the optimization of bunting, batting orders, and bullpens, why analysis is no longer the province of small-market teams, whether smarter baseball is more boring baseball (and if so, who’s to blame), and how the evolution of baseball has changed baseball writing.

Audio intro: Smash Mouth, "105"
Audio interstitial: Teenage Fanclub, "The First Sight"
Audio outro: Superchunk, "Smarter Hearts"

Link to Jeff’s Jordan Hicks post
Link to Bryan Grosnick’s “Opener” post
Link to DRaysBay “Opener” analysis
Link to Joe Sheehan newsletter

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I’m going to show you two clips, featuring right-handed rookie relievers around their top fastball speeds. One of these relievers has struck out almost a third of the batters he’s faced. That’s good! It’s not exactly Josh Hader good, but then, nobody is. Hader is on another level. Anyway, the other one of these relievers hasn’t struck out even a tenth of the batters he’s faced. Absent any other information, that’s bad! It should at least make success very difficult to achieve. I know I’ve kind of ruined it with the headline, but I don’t care, we’re still doing this. I’m the one in control of how this goes.

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Necessity is said to be the primary motivator behind innovation. And no franchise is faced with a more difficult environment in which to compete, is confronted by a greater need for innovation, than the Tampa Bay Rays.

In possession of either the worst or second-worst stadium situation in the majors, with small-market revenues, the Rays also share a division with coastal elites like the Yankees (+76) and Red Sox (+75), who rank second and third in the majors in run differential, respectively, behind only the Astros (+98).

Because of this, the Rays have been more willing to experiment than just about every other club over the last 15 years. They brought defensive shifts to the American League, signed Evan Longoria to a club-friendly deal six days after he debuted in the majors, and have limited starting pitchers to two trips through the order more aggressively than any other club. This spring, they planned to employ a four-man rotation.

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