Over at Baseball Prospectus, it’s PECOTA day. Now, that means a whole lot of different things, but one of the things it means is that now BP gets to unveil its projected 2018 standings. Some years ago, I used to get extremely excited about seeing the first standings projections. Then FanGraphs decided to start hosting projections year-round. They’re always right here, and for months, that information has been based on the Steamer projection system. Pretty soon, well in advance of opening day, the ZiPS system will get folded in, to say nothing of remaining transactions. The point being, having projected standings is fun. They serve to keep the mind occupied with thoughts of baseball.

Projected standings aren’t just a toy for the public. I mean, the public ones are, but teams also have their own private projections, that might be better, or that might be basically the same. Team projections drive perceptions, and team projections drive transactions. We feel like we have a pretty good idea of which teams are situated to contend. We also feel like we have a pretty good idea of which teams are far away. Right now, in 2018, based in part on the projections and in part on what just happened a year ago, we have the sense we’re in an era of super-teams, which might be keeping the market slow. Other teams might not feel like they’re close enough to invest.

I love having access to team projections. I use them all the time for analysis and articles. But I feel like I should remind you of the limitations. This is something I could probably write every single year. I’m sure on some level you already know what I’m going to say. Projections are pretty good. They can also end up very, very far off.

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The Twins need starting pitching. You know that. I know that. The Twins know that. It’s the reason they’ve been connected with pretty much all the available free agents, Yu Darvish the most prominent among them. Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn are among the next tier of free agents who would make some sense for the club. Below that, you have former Twin — for one game, at least —Jaime Garcia and some other options like Wade Miley and Jason Vargas.

Before yesterday, it seemed pretty likely that Minnesota would be adding one of the top four pitchers available this winter. With Ervin Santana now expected to miss the first month of the season due to finger surgery, it might actually be a good idea for the Twins to sign two pitchers.

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Pitching is weird. Development commonly follows an uneven timeline, with progress being erratic, often unpredictable. One little change can mean the difference between life in Triple-A and 20 million dollars, so if there’s one thing to try to accumulate, it’s youth. Young pitchers come with the benefit of more time. It’s hard to know what they’ll do with it, but at least they have it to begin with. More time to find the adjustments that matter.

The Reds can sometimes be an easy team to forget. Their rebuild, admittedly, remains a work in progress. Yet one thing they’ve certainly done is collect young starting pitchers, which gives them that volatility and upside, even beyond the already volatile Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani. Maybe this year will be the year for Cody Reed. Maybe it’ll be the year for Amir Garrett, or Robert Stephenson. Not to leave out Sal Romano. Not to leave out Brandon Finnegan, or Tyler Mahle. Not to leave out all the other candidates. With a few new pitches, or with a few mechanical tweaks, the Reds could suddenly have something special on their hands.

What the Reds have desperately needed to do is develop quality pitching. There’s plenty more development remaining to be achieved. Among the whole assortment, however, there’s one shining light. There’s not really anything left for Luis Castillo to do. He’s an electrifying starter who already made his final adjustment on the fly.

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Hi, there. Eric here to tee you up for the conversation you’re about to read. Kiley and I wanted to be as open as possible about how we went about compiling our overall top-100 prospects list (and, it follows, how we compile each organization’s list of prospects). Below we provide some broad exposition about how we determine a prospect’s grade, as well as how we’ve reflected on and tweaked our methodology. We don’t necessarily believe the way we do it is objectively correct, but we want you to know we’re searching for the best way to evaluate players, especially as (for better or worse) major-league baseball evolves.

*****

Kiley McDaniel
So, let’s talk a little bit about how we determine an FV for a prospect. First, readers may want to check out this link about the connection between FV and WAR.

We can start with Colin Moran here since he’s essentially big-league ready. Once we get beyond players like that and into lower-level players, aspects of the process become hypothetical and vague.

Eric Longenhagen
We look to current MLB players as statistical baselines for this. We know the average MLB regular produces 2.0 to 2.5 WAR annually. Last year, both Chase Headley and Mike Moustakas were in that range, though of course they got there in totally different ways. We’ll compile every bit of information we can (scouting reports of our own or from people in baseball, any relevant data from the growing pie of player evaluation) and get an idea of what kind of output a prospect projects to have at maturity, then compare that to baselines created by individual players or league averages at a given position and things like that.

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Hey, do you want to play a game? One that involves assuming the role of Fake GM? And possibly ignoring or postponing whatever work you should be doing?

If so, then you’re in luck: FanGraphs dot com Community Research contributor Stephen Coelho has created such a game — one that you can access here, at your own peril.

This particular game allows one to build a roster out of major leaguers, with one notable constraint: only players who were free agents as of February 5th are available (meaning newest Met Todd Frazier is included).

Constructing fake teams based upon available free agents is a familiar pastime. In this case, however, it’s also a particularly relevant exercise, as we are currently in the midst of the slowest offseason on record. We have proof of if you harbor any doubts. Some 120 free agents remained unsigned. While not all of them are bound for a major-league roster spot, many quality players remained unemployed, including nine of FanGraphs’ top-20 free agents and four of the top five.

Coehlo himself attempted to build teams using different budgets, one more like small-market club, the other like a large-market one while staying under the tax threshold. This author also decided to play along in a slightly different manner. I ignored the tax threshold.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Nationals have developed into one of the league’s “super teams” in recent years, having compiled a roster that is rivaled by few others in terms of balance and overall strength. In 2017, for example, both the club’s hitters and pitchers finished seventh or better by WAR. That feat was accomplished by only three other clubs, all of which reached the postseason.

Regard:

With regard to the Nationals’ field-playing cohort, specifically, almost all the principals from the 2017 club return in 2018. Even some of the non-principals return, as well. Bryce Harper (575 PA, 4.9 zWAR) and Anthony Rendon (585, 4.5) are near-MVP types, while Trea Turner (558, 3.4) does quite well here, too. Adam Eaton (583, 3.0), meanwhile, will essentially serve as a new acquisition for Washington after having recorded just 107 plate appearances in his first year with the organization.

Ryan Zimmerman (496, 0.8) is the club’s weakest link per ZiPS, forecast for just a 102 wRC+ after producing a 138 wRC+ mark in 2017. Szymborski’s computer calls for a 38-point drop in BABIP (.335 to .297) and 60-point decline in isolated power (.269 to .209), too.

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When publishing our lists — and, in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s. This post represents our best attempt to answer that question.

When attempting to decide which prospects to include here, we ended up with a collection mostly of 45 Future Value players with some 40s mixed in. We’ve separated those players into groups or “types” to make it a little more digestible.

The aim for us here is to focus on guys who we like, but to whom we can’t yet give a 50 FV because they haven’t done enough. Think of them like stocks we are buying. (Or, does that make it insider trading since the measure of success is our own rankings?)

Lower-Level Starting Pitchers
Pitchers who project to be solid MLB starters and who have already proven themselves to some degree in the upper minors tend to be rated a 50 FV or better, rendering them ineligible for this list. The starting prospects here are all lower-level arms and various shades of one type: guys with electric stuff, who have a chance to start, but who face questions about whether they can do it long term. Some are more electric than others and Paddack, for example, doesn’t fit that description: he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery and his best pitch is his changeup. Without surgery, he likely would’ve posted strong enough numbers to appear on the actual top 100.

Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins
Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Minnesota Twins
D.L. Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Luis Medina, RHP, New York Yankees
Tobias Myers, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Paddack, RHP, San Diego Padres
Cionel Perez, LHP, Houston Astros
Hector Perez, RHP, Houston Astros
JoJo Romero, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Jose Soriano, RHP, Los Angeles Angels

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Here’s the thing: You might well be sick of this. Actually, no, here’s the thing: Even if you are sick of this, which you might be, baseball writers are in the writing business, and when baseball things happen, baseball writers write about them. When baseball things *don’t* happen, baseball writers still need to write, because that’s the job. So you’ve been seeing a lot about the slow pace of free agency, and you’ve been thinking more than you’d like to about trends in team payrolls. Throw this onto the pile. I’ve got even more analysis.

As Craig Edwards wrote a few days ago, league-wide spending could go down in 2018, compared to 2017. That’s not something that frequently happens. Within that post, Craig inserted a plot, showing how all 30 teams have moved. Here, I’d like to add some further context, courtesy of Cot’s Contracts. I’m going to look at every team, going back to the year 2000.

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Last week, we heard about some of the more colorful characters Lars Anderson has encountered playing baseball in Australia and got a snapshot look at how the ABL is structured. Today, in the penultimate installment of this series, we learn why his Sydney Blue Sox teammates are the best he’s ever had.

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Lars Anderson: “The 2017 Sydney Blue Sox are a collection of both Australian players and foreigners (referred to as ‘imports’). The imports for the Blue Sox are all Americans, with the exception of an old teammate of mine, Chiang Chih-Hsien — we played together in the Red Sox organization, from Low-A Greenville to Double-A Portland. Chiang is Taiwanese, and although he has put on a few pounds since I last saw him in 2009, he is still as lethal as ever with the bat… and equally cumbersome in the field. Fortunately for the Blue Sox, he is now playing third base instead of second, so his lack of range is not nearly as exposed as it was yesteryear.

“He is our best hitter, and watching him take at bats is a joy for us all. Smooth and effortless couldn’t begin to describe his swing. He makes it looks easy. He also looks like a little boy in the box. He’ll smile at the pitcher when he’s fooled on a breaking ball, as if to say, ‘Nice pitch!’ Or he’ll shake his head and look at the sky when he fouls a ball off or takes a bad swing, as if to say, in the most gentle way possible, ‘You idiot! Whaddya doing?!’ And then he’ll adjust and hit a video-game line drive somewhere. I would love to be a fly on the wall inside his brain.

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The Mets signed Todd Frazier yesterday, for two years and $17 million. One interpretation is that this is evidence of how the current free-agent market has cratered. Frazier, over the past three years, has been worth 10 WAR, and he just posted by far his best-ever walk rate. Another interpretation is that this is evidence of how badly Frazier wanted to remain in New York. He’s already got enough money to live on, and this way he’s still close to home, with a starting job on a potentially competitive team. You might say the Mets are kind of caught in the middle, but that’s not as bad a position as it sounds. Teams in the middle can over-achieve. The Mets are in the right place to invest.

The Frazier acquisition does get in the way of Wilmer Flores‘ playing time. Flores has been a fairly good hitter lately, and he’s still just 26. Perhaps this is only a lateral move, then, but really, Flores can still play; now he’s been turned into quality depth. He’s a better hitter than Jose Reyes, and he can help out at first should Adrian Gonzalez or Dominic Smith under-perform. The Mets now are better and deeper, and, compared to Flores, Frazier’s the superior defender.

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