Kyle Freeland is scheduled to make his 206th start for the Colorado Rockies on Friday night, and when he does, he’ll tie Aaron Cook for the most in franchise history. The 31-year-old southpaw began building that number when he made his major league debut in April 2017. Three years earlier, he’d been drafted eighth overall by the NL West club out of the University of Evansville.

When our Rockies Top Prospects list was published in November 2016, Freeland was ranked no. 6 in a system that Eric Longenhagen then described as “both interesting and complex,” as well as excellent and underrated. Our lead prospect analyst assigned the lanky left-hander a 50 FV.

What did Freeland’s scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Freeland to respond to it.

———

“Freeland missed a huge chunk of the 2015 season dealing with bone chips in his elbow and shoulder fatigue, and he looked bad in the Fall League when he returned.”

“That is completely inaccurate,” Freeland replied. “I led the Fall League in ERA. I was a Fall League All-Star. My first start was not good, but every start after that I was nails. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. Normally, this column is a celebration of the extreme athleticism and talent on display across the majors. This week, though, I found myself drawn to the oddities instead. Unhittable 98-mph splinkers? Boring. Let’s talk about a pitcher who can’t strike anyone out and yet still gets results. Some of the fastest human beings on the planet stealing bases? I’d prefer some slower, larger guys getting in on the act. Brilliant, unbelievable outfield catches? I was more fascinated by a play that didn’t get made. The only thing that hasn’t changed? Mike Trout still isn’t to be trifled with. So thanks to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for his incredible idea for a sports column, and let’s get down to business.

1. In-Game Adjustments
In the 15th year of his career, Mike Trout doesn’t stand out the way he did early on. He’s no longer the fastest and strongest player every time he takes the field; he’s more “slugging corner guy” than “perennial MVP frontrunner” these days. But one thing hasn’t changed: Trout’s wonderful ability to adapt.

Landen Roupp faced the Angels last Saturday, and he leaned on his curveball. He always does, to be fair. It’s one of the best curveballs in baseball, with enormous two-plane break, and he throws it 40% of the time, more than any of his other pitches. In fact, he throws his curveball more often than any other starting pitcher. Trout had never faced Roupp before, and so he struggled to deal with the signature offering.
Read the rest of this entry »

“I’m so sick of this friggin’ guy,” is one of the greatest compliments one can pay an opposing athlete. And the Dodgers must be sick to death of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs and Dodgers, who opened the season together in Japan, just played five games in the span of 13 days to complete their season series. In those five games, Crow-Armstrong did his normal speed-and-defense act, but he also went 10-for-22 with four home runs.

In the two-game series that just ended, PCA went 3-for-5 with a home run and a double in the first game, and 3-for-4 with a home run and two stolen bases in the second. The Cubs won each game by one run; I don’t think it’s at all unfair to say that in a series that featured the Dodgers’ vaunted three-MVP lineup, plus Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernández, and a partridge in a pear tree, it was the young PCA who singlehandedly turned the tide. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about old-pitcher comebacks (or dropoffs), James Wood’s inefficient excellence, Aaron Judge’s potentially unparalleled peak, whether pitching to contact pays, a possible Paul Skenes change, a base-stealing update, private equity’s MLB plans, and Rob Manfred’s feelings on fandom.

Audio intro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Guy Russo, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Ella Black series
Link to Ella Black event details
Link to MLBTR on Hill
Link to MLBTR on Chavez
Link to team SP WAR
Link to projected SP WAR
Link to MLB.com on Wood
Link to pulled air balls
Link to Wood’s Savant page
Link to Jay on Judge
Link to The Bandwagon on Judge
Link to strikeouts study
Link to Sam on Skenes
Link to Skenes max velos
Link to Clemens on steals
Link to CNBC salary cap piece
Link to CNBC private equity piece
Link to latest Manfred comment
Link to earlier Manfred comment
Link to BP on Manfred and fandom
Link to cricket popularity piece
Link to Rogers statue story
Link to Curse of the Colonel

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You’re welcome, Yankees fans. Exactly one year ago today, I checked in on Aaron Judge while the slugger was in the throes of a season-opening slump. Though the Yankees were 16-8 when I wrote that piece, it was a dark time for Judge, who a few days earlier had heard a smattering of Bronx cheers while striking out four times on Aaron Judge Bobblehead Day and conceded with typical Jeterian diplomacy and humor, “I’d probably be doing the same thing in their situation.” He’d shown faint signs of turning things around since, combining a couple of days worth of hard-hit balls — including a double on April 23, his first extra-base hit in 10 days — with the apparent end of a strikeout spree, but he wasn’t out of the woods.

In the year since, Judge has put together what might be the best offensive performance any of us has seen. He not only recovered from his slump, he went on to hit 58 homers, win his third home run title and American League MVP award, help the Yankees to their first World Series since 2009, and secure his place in the pantheon of the game’s greatest hitters. What do you even do with these numbers besides gawk?

For sheer offensive impact as measured by wRC+, that performance would outrank any AL/NL season — even Barry Bonds’ best:

Read the rest of this entry »

Bryce Miller didn’t have an especially good start at Fenway Park on Tuesday. The Seattle Mariners right-hander allowed five hits, four walks, and four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings. He took the loss in an 8-3 Red Sox win.

Alex Bregman was responsible for much of the damage. Boston’s third baseman tagged Miller for a run-scoring double in the third inning, and he followed that up with a two-run double in the fifth. His track record against the 26-year-old hurler belied the success. Heading into the game, Bregman was 1-for-15 against Miller, the lone hit being an infield single last May.

Not surprisingly, Bregman ended up being a main focus when I spoke to Miller on Wednesday afternoon. I began our conversation by asking him which plate appearances he’s dwelled upon the most when looking back at his uneven performance the night before.

“Most of the thought has gone to the walks,” Miller replied. “I wanted to have a quick fifth inning, but after getting ahead of [Ceddanne] Rafaela 1-2, I didn’t execute a few pitches and ended up walking him. After that, I got [Jarren] Duran out on a groundball, but then I walked [Rafael] Devers. Pretty much, there went my chances of a quick inning. Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Dan Szymborski: ITS PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Well, may not. I never liked peanut butter and jelly. Mostly because I only like peanut butter by itself

12:01

Dan Szymborski: PROBABLY a stretch, but I don’t think the gulf is as big as the Rockies may think

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Especially if ZiPS is correct in loving his defense

Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Ross had a bummer of a 2024 season – a lower back injury ended his season after only 74 innings. He had a bummer of a start to 2025, too. Opponents were hitting him hard and he couldn’t miss a bat to save his life. But Tuesday night against the Mets, manager Rob Thomson said, Hey Joe, I trust you.

Ross was in the game unexpectedly early after Cristopher Sánchez departed with forearm soreness after only two innings. Ross came in to start the third inning, with the Phillies trailing 2-1. He came out of spring training in a short-relief role, but more recently he’d been used as a long reliever, and this particular situation called for multiple innings. So Ross came in and looked great, the best he has all year. After Pete Alonso greeted him with a single, Ross retired the next six Mets in order, two on strikeouts.

Two innings matched Ross’s longest outing of the year, and his pitch count was already up to a season-high 32. How long would you stick with a reliever who began the day with a 7.45 ERA, a 5.30 FIP, and an 11.1% strikeout rate in a one-run game? At some point, Thomson would have to take him out, and the bottom of the fifth inning seemed like the perfect time. The top of the Mets order was due up, which meant Francisco Lindor. And Francisco Lindor owns Joe Ross.
Read the rest of this entry »

We now have NPB data available on FanGraphs! It can found on the player pages and the leaderboards.

A few notes on NPB data:

• All NPB data is provided by Sports Info Solutions and is available going back to 2018.
• We update NPB (and KBO) data around 11:30 ET each night with the previous days games.
• wRC+, ERA-, and FIP-, are park adjusted using five-year park factors.

Speaking of park adjustments, MiLB and KBO wRC+, ERA-, and FIP- are now also park adjusted using five-year park factors. You can read more about how our park factors are calculated here. Read the rest of this entry »