PHILADELPHIA – The last time the Arizona Diamondbacks won a game in the NLCS, Randy Johnson took the win and Erubiel Durazo hit the game-winning home run off Tom Glavine. It’s been a minute.

When Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen took the mound in Philadelphia, he was hoping to make a dent in that history; the Phillies have been red hot all October, but so has Arizona, and Gallen’s arm is one of the best weapons the D-backs have. But Kyle Schwarber hit the first pitch Gallen threw off the video board on the facing of the second deck at Citizens Bank Park. A minute? The Phillies took the lead in seconds. Two batters later, Bryce Harper crushed another fastball out to right center. It wasn’t quite over before it began, but the Phillies took the lead on the first pitch they saw and never gave it up.

“The reality is we were probably going to lose a game at some point,” Evan Longoria offered after the game, attempting to put the defeat in perspective. But the Phillies roughed Gallen up early and held off a series of late rallies to win 5-3. Surely it was not the manner of defeat anyone from the Diamondbacks had in mind. Read the rest of this entry »

Have you ever seen one of those horror movies with an unstoppable villain? They might get knocked down. A truck might run them over. They might fall out of a plane, or off a bridge, or into a bottomless pit. But then the camera cuts just so, and there’s that silhouette, lurching back into view, pursuing our protagonist despite the fact that they should have been down for the count.

I’m not making any fandom or value judgments here, but if you’re rooting against the Astros, they can feel like a movie monster. The Rangers did the baseball equivalent of knocking them over the head with a club in ALCS Game 2. They came out swinging against Justin Verlander last night to some success, but they really hit the accelerator against Framber Valdez in the first inning on Monday.

Marcus Semien smacked a first-pitch sinker past Jeremy Peña. Corey Seager blooped a first-pitch sinker into left. A batter later, Adolis García lined a first-pitch sinker into right for an RBI single. Mitch Garver never saw a sinker, but he did muscle the first in-zone pitch he saw to left, a sinking liner that brought home another run. Sprinkle in a bit of bad Houston luck — Valdez fumbled a comebacker for an error, Nathaniel Lowe hit a seeing-eye single on the kind of weak grounder that Valdez usually feasts on — and suddenly it was 4–0 Rangers. Read the rest of this entry »

Gabriel Moreno is one of several exciting and talented young backstops in the big leagues (and these playoffs). After coming to Arizona with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in exchange for Daulton Varsho, he got the opportunity to be the primary catcher and show off the skills he displayed in the minor leagues. He made an immediate defensive impact despite his offensive struggles in the beginning of the season; when the league was running wild in the spring, he was prepared, throwing guys out left and right. But his bat took a second to come around, likely due to ongoing discomfort in his lead shoulder. He eventually made a trip to the injured list, but when he returned, he looked as healthy as can be, posting a 141 wRC+ in the second half and playing excellent defense.

During the Diamondbacks’ improbable run and five-game postseason win streak, there is no question that Corbin Carroll has been their best player. But when you sweep a team that finished with 16 more wins in the regular season, you’re going to need more help, and Moreno has been a formidable co-star. He’s continued his hot streak to close the season into October. With more health, his row and barrel tip have gotten looser and turned his ability to make consistent hard contact into loud home runs in timely situations. He only had seven in the regular season across 380 plate appearances, but his launch angle distribution improved dramatically when he got healthy:

All this to say, it’s not shocking to see him take swings like his 419-foot home run against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NLDS — a swing that came on the tail end of an impressive at-bat. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 regular season was a tumultuous one for the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were one of baseball’s best teams in the first half, with the fourth-best record in the league on July 1. Then in the month of July, they went just 8-16, tied for the second-worst record in baseball. They started August off on a nine-game losing streak before going 11-2 in their next 13 games. The rest of the season would be much of the same – losing five of six, then winning five of six, and so on and so forth. The club secured a playoff spot with an 8-2 stretch from September 15–27, before losing its final four regular-season games. From a playoff-odds perspective, the roller coaster looked like this:

If one of the defining characteristics of the Diamondbacks’ 2023 regular season was volatility, the bullpen was no exception. After a slow start, the group had a strong May, collapsed to be one of the league’s worst in July, and battled back to have a quite effective final month. By the time they’d played 162, 30 pitchers had appeared in relief for Arizona – just two NL teams used more. Entering a short-series playoff format (have you heard about the short-series playoff format?), the pressure was on for the rostered subset to find their best, holding leads when they had them and keeping games close when they didn’t. Through two rounds, they’ve more than answered the call:

Read the rest of this entry »

As I’ve done for the past few years, I’m going to be grading each eliminated postseason manager on their decision-making. We spend the year mostly ignoring managers’ on-field contributions, because to be honest, they’re pretty small. Using the wrong reliever in the eighth inning just doesn’t feel that bad on June 22; there are so many more games still coming, and the regular season is more about managing the grind than getting every possible edge every day. The playoffs aren’t like that; with so few games to separate wheat from chaff, every last ounce of win probability matters, and managers make personnel decisions accordingly. What better time to grade them?

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things – getting team buy-in for new strategies and unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable – but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Evan Carter and the entire Diamondbacks roster have been great too. Forget trusting your veterans – the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Carlos Correa is important because he’s a great player, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process. I’ve already covered the losing managers of the Wild Card round, as well as Brandon Hyde’s efforts. Today, it’s Rocco Baldelli’s turn. Read the rest of this entry »

If you need a reminder that anything can happen in a short postseason series, this is it, because the Phillies and Diamondbacks just pulled off two of the biggest upsets in postseason history as defined by regular season winning percentage differentials. The Phillies (90-72, .556) upended the Braves (104-58, .642) in a four-game thriller that left presumptive NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. speechless while the Diamondbacks (84-78, .519) swept the Dodgers (100-62, .617) into oblivion, holding MVP candidate Mookie Betts hitless and knocking Clayton Kershaw out in the first inning.

Perhaps the results shouldn’t have been quite as shocking as they were, given that we’ve all seen our share of October upsets. The Phillies should remind us of that, as a cast very similar to this year’s knocked off a powerhouse Braves team on the way to their first pennant in 13 years just last season. It’s worth remembering as we evaluate any postseason team that they’ve all undergone substantial changes — some for the better, some for the worse — on their way through the 162-game season and the first two rounds of the postseason.

By the regular season numbers, this would appear to be a mismatch, with the Phillies having an edge in every category except strikeout and walk rates, stolen bases, and baserunning. Thus far in the postseason, however, the two teams have been very similar, each thumping 13 homers and producing similar slash lines. The Phillies have hit .274/.354/.538 (137 wRC+), scoring 52% of their runs via homers, and stealing nine bases, while the Diamondbacks have hit .262/.347/.530 (133 wRC+), scoring 47% of their runs via homers, and stealing seven bases. That said, it’s a stretch to suggest the two lineups are of equal strength, particularly given that Arizona doesn’t have a left-handed option to start, though some of Philadelphia’s righties are vulnerable to same-side pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

One of my favorite things about observing the playoffs is seeing a team that has a plan and is unwilling to compromise on it. The first two innings of ALCS Game 1 were fast-paced, and a lot of that was due to the Rangers’ approach of attacking every pitch they got in the zone from Justin Verlander. The first eight Texas batters all swung at the first strikes they saw — every single one. After Leody Taveras walked on four pitches, Marcus Semien did the same even as he got a slider in a 2–0 count. Corey Seager continued the trend in the top of the third, but the streak ended after Mitch Garver took an 0–0 curveball in the zone.

The Rangers knew their best chance of getting to Verlander would be early. In 2023, his wOBA allowed the first time through the lineup was .315, then dropped to .266 the second time through and .267 the third time. Once he settles in with his command, he’s less prone to mistakes. That same trend played out in Game 1. Despite getting five batters on the first time through the order, the Rangers only managed to scratch one run across. And because of Texas’ aggression and putting the ball in play early in counts, Verlander’s pitch count was low; he finished the third with only 37 pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Noda was a 22-year-old Toronto Blue Jays prospect coming off his first full professional season when he led Sunday Notes on December 15, 2018. Drafted in the 15th round out of the University of Cincinnati a year earlier, Noda had logged 20 home runs and a .421 OBP with then-Low-A Lansing, prompting me to compare him to former Bearcat Kevin Youkilis. With the caveat “I’m not close to being in his class,” he told me that he modeled his game after Joey Votto.

Five years and two organizations later, Noda is now a big-leaguer himself. Selected by the Oakland Athletics out of the Los Angeles Dodgers system in last winter’s Rule 5 draft, the left-handed-hitting first baseman proceeded to put up solid numbers with MLB’s worst-performing club. In 495 plate appearances, Noda logged a team-best .364 OBP and slugged 16 home runs with a 123 wRC+.

“I don’t mind those two comps at all,” Noda replied when I reminded him of our bygone conversation. “I certainly wouldn’t mind having either of their careers, either.”

It’s probably safe to say that Noda won’t go on to match, or even approximate, what Votto has accomplished over his storied career. Channeling Youkilis, who was 27 years old — Noda’s current age — when he established himself as a big-league regular could be another story. The erstwhile corner infielder averaged 20 home runs with a .385 OBP and a 127 wRC+ in his seven-season prime.

Stylistically speaking — Youkilis being a righty aside — would he comp himself more to one than the other?

“Not really,” said Noda. “But I do take both of them into account with how I go about hitting. I’m trying to get a pitch to drive and from there hopefully driving it. In this game, patience is important — and not just at the plate. It’s a long season, and if you can stick to what you do best, even when you’re going bad, you can be successful.”

Noda and I were at Fenway Park when he spoke those words, which brought to mind yet another comp. I asked him how familiar he is with 23-year-old Red Sox rookie Triston Casas.

“Not too much,” Noda responded. “I know he’s a good ballplayer and that he can swing it well. It will be interesting to see him play over the years and watch how similar we maybe are. But again, I don’t know too much about him.”

Casas had a 13.9% walk rate to go with 24 home runs and 129 wRC+ in 502 plate appearances this season. Noda had a 15.6% walk rate to go with his aforementioned 16 home runs and 123 wRC+ over 495 plate appearances. With the caveat that Casas is three years younger and has a first-round pedigree — Boston drafted him 26th-overall in 2018 — there are definitely some similarities. If Casas goes on to meet expectations, Noda wouldn’t mind having his career either.

———

RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Bryce Harper is 20 for 49 against Julio Teheran.

Brian Harper went 18 for 44 against Dave Stewart.

Tommy Harper went 21 for 56 against Dave McNally.

Terry Harper went 11 for 18 against Bruce Ruffin.

George Harper went 32 for 71 against Grover Cleveland Alexander.

———

Left on the cutting-room floor from Thursday’s interview with former Seattle Mariners scouting director Tom McNamara were his reflections on the club’s fourth-round pick in the 2012 draft. With the 131st-overall selection, Seattle took a third baseman whose collegiate career comprised all of 51 games and 229 plate appearances.

“We needed a senior, because we’d spent money,” McNamara told me. “Patrick Kivlehan was a safety on the Rutgers football team. He played both baseball and football. The amazing story about Kivlehan is that he didn’t play college baseball for his first three years. I remember flying in and talking to the coach at Rutgers. I asked him, ‘How did he make the team?’ He said, ‘He asked if he could try out for the team. I told him we had a spot, but he was probably never going to play.’ Well, what happened is that Rutgers’ third baseman tore a hamstring and Kivlehan ended up playing third base and almost winning the Triple Crown in the Big East. We took him in the fourth round and he got to the big leagues. He played with Arizona and Cincinnati, and I think San Diego.”

The Mariners traded Kivlehan to the Texas Rangers in December 2015 as part of a five-player deal, reacquired him six months later in exchange for Justin De Fratus, then released him in early August. The Padres picked him up, and Kivlehan made his MLB debut a few weeks later. He went to log a 84 wRC+ over 250 plate appearances in what was ultimately a modest big-league career.

The player taken one pick after Kivlehan has had a notable career that took awhile to get off the ground. The Baltimore Orioles selected Christian Walker 132nd overall out of the University of South Carolina, only to place him on waivers five years later after 31 nondescript big-league plate appearances. Then came a four-week rollercoaster that eventually landed the slugging first baseman in his current home. The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds both claimed, but then waived, Walker before the Arizona Diamondbacks inked him to a contract on the eve of the 2017 season. The rest is history. Hitting in the middle of the D-Backs lineup, Walker has 69 home runs and a 122 wRC+ over the past two seasons.

———

A quiz:

Which pitcher holds the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise record for strikeouts in a single season? (A hint: he also has the franchise’s second-highest single-season strikeout total.)

The answer can be found below.

———

NEWS NOTES

Brad Ciolek, who has been serving as Baltimore’s director of draft operations, is leaving the organization and will be joining the Washington Nationals. Ciolek has overseen the last five Orioles drafts, which include the selections of Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, and Adley Rutschman,

Toronto Blue Jays coach Luis Rivera has decided to retire. The 59-year-old former big-league infielder had coached and managed in the Jays system since 2010.

Casey Cox, who pitched for the Washington Senators/Texas Rangers from 1966-1972, and then briefly for the New York Yankees, died earlier this month at age 82 (per Baseball Player Passings). The right-hander’s best season came in 1969 when he went 12-7 with a 2.78 ERA.

SABR’s Larry Dierker chapter will hold a dual in-person/Zoom meeting tomorrow (Monday October 16) beginning at 7pm with former Astros announcer Bill Brown the guest speaker. More information can be found here.

——-

The answer to the quiz is Bob Veale, with 276 strikeouts in 1965. A year earlier, the hard-throwing southpaw logged an NL-best 250 strikeouts, the second-highest total in Pirates franchise history.

———

The Houston Astros advancing to their seventh consecutive LCS ranks right up there with the 1990s Atlanta Braves and multiple decades of New York Yankees American League supremacy. The grownup sons of the expansion Colt .45s are eight wins away from a third World Series title since 2017.

The Brooklyn Dodgers deserve some love here. Shortly before being relocated to Los Angeles in 1958, “Dem Bums” reached the World Series five times from 1949-1956. and their win totals in the three years they fell just short were 89, 97, and 92 (in what was then a 154-game-schedule). The winningest of those not-quite seasons was famously painful — Bobby Thomson’s Shot Heard ‘Round the World capping a four-run bottom of the ninth inning for the New York Giants. Four years after that soul-crushing 1951 defeat, Brooklyn won its only World Series by beating the Yankees in seven games. Johnny Podres was on the mound for the 2-0 clincher, while Gil Hodges drove in both runs.

———

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

NPB’s postseason got underway on Saturday with the Chiba Lotte Marines beating the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 8-2. Twenty-one-year-old wunderkind Roki Sasaki threw three scoreless innings for the winning side, while 2018 Atlanta Braves first-round pick Carter Stewart was tagged with the loss.

NPB’s other first-stage contest saw the Hiroshima Carp edge past the Yokohama DeNA BayStars 3-2 in 11 innings with a pair of former MLB pitchers getting the decisions. Nik Turley was credited with the win, while J.B. Wendelken was tagged with the loss. Game 2 of each best-of-five, first-stage matchups are today.

Update: Hiroshima defeated DeNA 4-2 and will go on to play the Central League champion Hanshin Tigers in the next round. SoftBank beat Chiba Lotte 3-1, setting up a deciding Game 3 to determine who goes up against the Pacific League champion Orix Buffaloes.

Yuki Matsui, who will reportedly be exercising his international free agent rights this offseason, made his 500th NPB appearance in his final game of the regular season The 27-year-old Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles southpaw had 39 saves and a 1.60 ERA this year.

Seunghwan Oh recorded his 400th KBO save, and his 522nd professionally, on Saturday. The 36-year-old Samsung Lions right-hander’s resume includes 80 saves in NPB and 42 more in MLB.

Erick Fedde went 20-6 with a 2.06 ERA for the KBO’s NC Dinos. The 30-year-old former Washington National right-hander had 204 strikeouts and 134 hits allowed in 174-and-two-thirds innings.

Dong Ju Moon went 8-8 with a 3.72 ERA over 118-and-two-thirds innings for the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles. The 19-year-old right-hander went six scoreless in his last start of the season.

———

Dixie Howell holds three obscure big-league records. Per his B-Ref bio page, the Harold, Kentucky native is the last relief pitcher to hit two home runs in the same game, having done so with the Chicago White Sox on June 16, 1957. Moreover, all five hits he had that season — a double, a triple, and three home runs — went for extra bases (Rick Wrona subsequently tied Howell’s most-hits-sans-a-single record in 1994 while playing with the Milwaukee Brewers). Howell also holds the record for the longest time between when he first pitched in the majors and when he got his first victory. He made his MLB debut in 1940 and wasn’t credited with a win until 1955.

———

FARM NOTES

Alexander Albertus slashed .310/.471/.468 with five home runs and a 152 wRC+ in 170 plate appearances between the Dominican Summer League and the Arizona Complex League. A native of Oranjestad, Aruba, the 18-year-old infielder in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization drew 38 walks and fanned just 19 times.

Cesar Quintas had a .516 BABIP in 168 plate appearances with Giants Orange, one of two San Francisco entries in the Arizona Complex League. The 20-year-old outfielder fromValencia, Venezuela slashed .372/.506/.473 with one home run and a 159 wRC+.

Jakob Marsee has 19 hits, including nine for extra bases, in 38 at-bats for the Arizona Fall League’s Peoria Javelinas. The 22-year-old outfielder in the San Diego Padres system slashed .274/.413/.428 with 16 home runs this year between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio. Marsee is a former Central Michigan University Chippewa.

Carter Howell has seven hits, including a triple and a pair of home runs, in 21 at-bats with the Arizona Fall League’s Scottsdale Scorpions. The 24-year-old Fargo, North Dakota-born outfielder in the San Francisco Giants system swatted 10 taters and had a .295/.369/.442 slash line between Low-A San Jose and High-A Eugene.

Liam Hicks is 16-for-28, including four doubles, for the Arizona Fall League’s Surprise Saguaros. The 24-year-old, Toronto, Ontario-born catcher in the Texas Rangers organization slashed .275/.414/.373 with four home runs between High-A Hickory and Double-A Frisco.

———

The following paragraph is included in Jonathan Mayo’s Smart, Wrong, and Lucky: The Origin Stories of Baseball’s Unexpected Stars:

“It begs the question, of course. If the Padres area scout and regional crosschecker had him in as a second rounder, if a national crosschecker saw him, if the the scouting director came in to see a private workout, all of which occurred according to Campbell, how on earth did Mookie Betts become a San Diego Padre?”

Betts, as has been well chronicled, lasted until the fifth round of the 2011 draft when he was taken by the Boston Red Sox with the 172nd-overall pick. The Padres, who had the 173rd pick that year, had taken eight players earlier in the draft, including four supplemental first-round selections. None of them have come close to matching Betts’s accomplishments.

Mayo addresses that part of the backstory, as well as how Betts ultimately landed in Boston, in his must-read book.

———

LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

MLB.com’s Michael Clair wrote about how power-hitting Japanese high school phenom Rintaro Sasaki will reportedly bypass the NPB draft and, with MLB in mind, instead attend college in the United States.

Dan Connolly offered some observations from the Orioles’ postseason press conference, and opined on the Mike Elias-Brandon Hyde partnership, at Baltimore’s WHAR.

True Blue LA’s Eric Stephen wonders if Clayton Kershaw has thrown his last pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Covering the Corner’s Matt Dallas looked back at the 1949 Cleveland Indians, who failed to defend a World Series championship. More than seven decades later, the fanbase awaits its first title since 1948.

Over at Bless You Boys, Patrick O’Kennedy gave us an offseason calendar covering not only the Detroit Tigers, but also MLB as a whole. From the GM Meetings to the non-tender deadline to the Rule 5 draft, it’s all here.

———

RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Including the postseason, NLCS managers Torey Lovullo and Rob Thomson have a combined 672 managerial wins. ALCS managers Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy have a combined 4,379 managerial wins.

Lance Lynn allowed 48 home runs in 186-and-a-third innings (including the postseason). Sonny Gray allowed 10 home runs in 193 innings (also including the postseason).

Mookie Betts is 6-for-48 with two extra-base hits over his last three postseason series. Trea Turner is 18-for-42 with 10 extra-base hits over his last three postseason series.

Ronald Acuña Jr’s combined runs scored-RBI total during the regular season was 255. Matt Olson’s combined runs scored-RBI total was 266.

The league-average team totals for stolen bases and caught-stealings this year were 117 and 29 respectively. The most-league-average team was the Seattle Mariners, with 118 stolen bases and 30 caught-stealings. The New York Mets swiped 118 bases and were caught just 15 times.

Arizona Diamondbacks batters combined for 36 sacrifice hits this season, the most of any team. Atlanta Braves batters combined for two sacrifice hits this season, the fewest of any team

Minnesota Twins pitchers combined to allow 443 walks with a franchise record 1,560 strikeouts. Pitchers for the 1991 World Series champion Twins combined to allow 488 walks with 876 strikeouts.

Bob Gibson got the win as the St. Louis Cardinals beat the New York Yankees 7-5 in World Series Game 7 on today’s date in 1964. The Boyer brothers both homered — Clete for the losing side and Ken for he victors — as did Lou Brock, Mickey Mantle, and Phil Linz.

On today’s date in 1975, Luis Tiant went the distance as the Boston Red Sox edged the Cincinnati Reds 5-4 in Game 4 of the World Series. El Tiant threw 163 pitches while scattering nine hits and four walks. The Reds stranded eight runners, including two in the bottom of the ninth.

Players born on today’s date include Tommy Toms, a right-handed pitcher who appeared in 18 games for the San Francisco Giants from 1975-1977. The Charlottesville, Virginia native went 0-1 in each of the three seasons, and was credited with one save.

Also born on today’s date was Jim Command, a third baseman who went 4-for-25 while getting cups of coffee with the Philadelphia Phillies in 1954 and 1955. The Grand Rapids, Michigan native’s lone home run was a grand slam off of Brooklyn Dodgers right-hander Carl Erskine.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the career of the incomparable Bryce Harper, more “Attaboy” blowback, the end of the Phillies-Braves NLDS, scoring and competitiveness in the postseason as a whole, a Phillies homer-prediction contest, the pitch clock in the postseason, the Championship Series matchups, their most desired World Series matchups, why we say “balls and strikes” instead of “strikes and balls,” and more. Then (1:16:44) The Ringer’s Zach Kram joins to Stat Blast about players who return from absences in October and how various rate stats differ between the regular season and postseason (plus an MLB/NBA playoff comp).

Audio intro: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to The Onion on Mr. Autumn Man
Link to Verducci on Harper from 2009
Link to double-blow-dryer clip
Link to Harper on pandering
Link to Phillies as himbos
Link to 2014 Harper overrated
Link to 2015 Harper overrated
Link to 2019 Harper overrated
Link to Jake’s article
Link to Rizzo comments
Link to Rizzo apology
Link to BBWAA statement
Link to Jake’s thread
Link to Bissinger/Leitch article
Link to Baumann on NLDS Game 4
Link to Joe Sheehan on playoff scoring
Link to Joe Posnanski on playoff scoring
Link to Alex Eisert on playoff scoring
Link to Defector on the Braves
Link to Strider quote
Link to bullpen prediction game
Link to Dan S. on the ALCS
Link to Schoenfield on the pitch clock
Link to Petriello on the Phillies defense
Link to Kram on upsets
Link to article on balls/strikes in Japan
Link to 1887 umpire indicator
Link to 1886 umpire indicator
Link to Ngram viewer results
Link to paper on English binomials
Link to Topps Now
Link to Stubbs in overalls
Link to long-layoff-players sheet
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to Pinch Thomas SABR bio
Link to FG regular-season stats
Link to FG postseason stats
Link to HR reliance study
Link to playoff randomness comparison
Link to another randomness comparison

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Ah, the playoffs. The smell of fall in the air, the sight of towel waving and packed stadiums across the country, and the endless stream of pontification on social media. Are the Rays just not built for the postseason due to a lack of star power? Have the Dodgers been playoff slouches because they’re too dependent on their stars? Do the Astros know something about how Martín Maldonado manages a pitching staff that we don’t? Do we know more about how to manage a pitching staff than John Schneider? The list goes on.

Especially with the new opportunities to weigh in given the expanded playoff structure, it’s been harder than ever to hone in on ideas worth pondering, let alone hypotheses that are falsifiable. But the other day, a xweet from MLB Network researcher Jessica Brand caught my eye:

Of the 145 pitchers with 50.0+ innings pitched in the playoffs, their average ERA changes by -0.32. Genuinely surprised it's to their favor too!

Worried about outliers? Median further cements this point, at -0.36.

44 of 145 go up, 100 go down, 1 stays the same: Catfish Hunter. https://t.co/AcqKFqyJyA

— Jessica Brand (@JessicaDBrand) October 9, 2023

Thanks to our handy new postseason leaderboards, this was indeed an interesting assertion that I could test. I limited my sample to hurlers who not only tossed at least 50 frames in the playoffs, but who also managed 500 innings in the regular season. There were 142 pitchers who met these criteria, and they averaged an ERA three tenths of a run lower in the playoffs. Per a paired-samples t-test, this result was statistically significant. Read the rest of this entry »