For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Philadelphia Phillies.
Batters
Unless something significant happens in the next few weeks, the Phillies’ 2024 offense will look a lot like the late-2023 version. In many ways, that’s a good thing: The team ranked sixth in runs scored and seventh in wRC+ in the second half. Problem is, everyone will be a year older and some of the club’s fundamental issues still remain. Most of their best offensive talent is on the wrong side of 30, the outfield’s kind of iffy overall, and you can’t DH both Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Bryce Harper playing first “fixes” the loss of Rhys Hoskins, but you have to have a lot of faith in Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas. Marsh is probably the more likely of the two to maintain offensive relevance, but Rojas is good enough defensively that the floor on his performance is probably pretty high.
I’ve already seen some grumbling about Bryson Stott’s projection, but given the volatility of defensive stats — even the newest-fangled of them — ZiPS isn’t going all-in there until he does it another time or two. Alec Bohm is competently boring.
Issues like the team’s depth and lack of reinforcements on the farm remain. That’s not to say the farm is empty, it’s just that the most fascinating prospects are pitchers and the more compelling offensive prospects are probably a few years off. The Phillies will try to keep their boat afloat until then, but in 2024, the team could be susceptible to a lot of bad news hitting at once.
Pitchers
As long as their pitchers are healthy, the Phillies have one of the best starting rotations in baseball. If you think their lofty ranking in our depth charts is due to some idiosyncrasy of Steamer, ZiPS likes them about just as much when using our depth chart playing time, ranking them fourth among the projected teams so far (Braves, Mariners, Dodgers). Now, I’m personally not quite as bullish about this group, and by the time we have the Real Official ZiPS projections, I’m naturally going to be a little more skeptical about playing time for Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, simply by virtue of them being pitchers.
Wheeler-Nola is a fine one-two punch, and the emergence of Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez has given the Phillies a lot more runway to survive if calamity strikes. Taijuan Walker’s semi-cromulent performance looks a lot better when he’s only being counted on to be the fifth-best pitcher in the rotation. Sure, Wheeler is unsigned past 2024, but that’s a problem for Future Dave Dombrowski (or Sam Fuld) to worry about. ZiPS remains lukewarm on Mick Abel and Griff McGarry, however, and the team isn’t overflowing elsewhere with those random fourth starters the A’s used to be able to find before they lost their feel for it.
There’s a real polarization among relievers in the ZiPS projections. The computer really likes José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering, and is at least a friendly acquaintance with Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Domínguez. But the relievers it’s not keen on, like Dylan Covey and Andrew Bellatti, it hates with the kind of burning passion that should worry people who fear AI uprisings. It’s also surprisingly suspicious of Gregory Soto’s improved walk rates for reasons I haven’t completely deciphered.
So, where do the Phillies stand? They still need an awful lot to go right for them and wrong for Atlanta to be serious contenders for the division. But they’re a top-tier Wild Card team and if the rotation stays healthy, they can power themselves pretty far in October once again. Of course, there’s some risk in keeping the band together for another album without anything new; you eventually produce Creedence Clearwater Revival’s Mardi Gras, or a couple of Weezer albums that I’ve only forgotten the names of after years of focused hatred. This is a good team, but with just the right mix of plausible, unfortunate outcomes, it could be susceptible to one of those depressing implosions like the Mets or Cardinals last year.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Billy Cook is flying well below the radar in the Baltimore Orioles organization. That’s understandable. The 2023 American League East champions continue to boast one of the top farm systems in baseball, and Cook is a soon-to-turn-25-year-old outfielder/infielder out of Pepperdine University who lasted until the 10th round of the 2021 draft. Moreover, while he went deep a team-best 24 times this past season with Double-A Bowie, it’s easy to be overshadowed when your teammates include high-profile first-rounders such as Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, as well as highly regarded slugger Coby Mayo and, at year’s end, fast-rising backstop Samuel Basallo.
Those things said, Cook has a lot to prove. His numbers with Bowie were solid but unspectacular, posting a .251/.320/.456 line and a 110 wRC+. Moreover, while his 25% strikeout rate was an improvement from the previous year, he’ll likely need to further hone his contact skills if he hopes to beat the odds and wear a big league uniform. Given his age and utility profile, he remains more project than prospect — especially within a system with no shortage of blue chippers.
Cook discussed his game, and dark horse status, at the tail end of the Arizona Fall League season, which saw him log an .818 OPS with the Mesa Solar Sox.
———
David Laurila: You hit 24 home runs this year, but outside of that, I don’t know a lot about you. How would you describe your game?
Billy Cook: “I’m working on my complete game. I think the power has always been there, and then there are the stolen bases [30 in 33 attempts in 2023]. I have speed. When I don’t get into my power, I can get away with a little soft contact here and there by beating out a groundball. But I do want to hit the ball in the air. This offseason I’ll be working on turning the hard groundballs into doubles, putting them into the gaps instead of hitting super low line drives. That’s pretty much it with the offense. Defensively, I’m trying to be that utility guy, someone who is able to play anywhere to keep the bat in the lineup.” Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Philadelphia Phillies. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
2024 BBWAA Candidate: Adrián González
Player
Pos
Career WAR
Peak WAR
JAWS
H
HR
AVG/OBP/SLG
OPS+
Adrián González
1B
43.5
34.6
39.1
2,050
317
.287/.358/.485
129
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Joe Mauer isn’t the only number one pick on this year’s ballot. In 2000, one year before the Twins took Mauer with the first pick, the Marlins used the top pick to select Adrián González out of Eastlake High School in Chula Vista, California. He would turn out to be one of the more successful number one picks, making five All-Star teams, winning four Gold Gloves, and receiving MVP votes in eight different seasons in his 15-year major league career spent with the Rangers, Padres, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mets. He never played a major league game for the Marlins, however, and was traded five times, including twice at the center of his era’s biggest blockbusters. Along with his two older brothers, he also continued the legacy of his father, David González Sr., by representing Mexico in international competition.
Adrián Sabin González was born on May 8, 1982 in San Diego, California, the youngest of three sons of David and Alba González. His father had been a star first baseman in his own right for the Mexican National Team, and when the family lived in San Diego, he commuted daily across the border to Tijuana, Mexico, where he owned a successful air conditioning business. All three of the couple’s sons were born in the United States and all three would play baseball. The oldest, David Jr., was a shortstop who made it as far as college baseball but injured his arm and never played professionally. The middle son, Edgar (b. 1978), had a 15-year professional career himself (2000-15), including two seasons as Adrián’s teammate in San Diego. Read the rest of this entry »
Last year, the Cincinnati Reds surprisingly vaulted into contention thanks to an ascendant crop of young position players. Led by Matt McLain, Reds rookie hitters accrued 7.6 WAR, tops in the majors. Yet, their postseason bid ultimately fell short; while the Reds ran a middle-of-the-pack offense with a 98 wRC+ (17th in the bigs), their pitching flopped. Even park-adjusted ERA-, which removes claustrophobic Great American Ball Park from the equation, pegged them as the eighth-worst staff in the majors with a 105 mark.
Cincinnati’s cache of young hurlers was supposed to serve as a complement to the team’s potential-filled lineup. But pitching is a fickle beast, and the Reds’ staff was dogged by injuries and inconsistency in 2023. Now, they’ve added Frankie Montas, the poster child of injuries and inconsistency, to that group. Read the rest of this entry »
The Cubs made the first big splash of the offseason by purloining Craig Counsell, widely regarded as one of the top managers in baseball, from the division rival Brewers, under the nose of the voracious, all-consuming Mets. On January 2, the Cubs introduced Counsell’s major league coaching staff. Right-handed pitcher Colten Brewer will also be joining the team in 2024.
But Counsell’s signing was supposed to herald a big and flashy offseason, a statement of intent that the Cubs were set to return to the forward-thinking, all-conquering form that made them such a force in the National League in the middle of the last decade. But the Cubs’ most recent trade was November 6. Their most recent major league free agent signing was Edwin Ríos, on February 17 of last year. That assumes Brewer is on a minor league deal; he’s pitched in the majors in five of the past six seasons, but he broke his own signing on Instagram rather than going through the agent-to-newsbreaker pipeline.
Having a quiet offseason so far is not necessarily a bad thing. There’s plenty of winter left, and plenty of free agents still on the board. Besides, maybe Jed Hoyer is doing a bit based on the fact that the team’s mascot is a bear and bears hibernate. That’d be sick. If there are two things I love, it’s hibernating and overcommitting to a bit. Read the rest of this entry »
After running his highest FIP since his breakout season in 2019, Lucas Giolito has secured a modified prove-it deal. Over the holidays, the right-hander signed a two-year contract with the Boston Red Sox worth $38.5 million. He will make $18 million in the first season and $19 million in the second; he can opt out after 2024. If he elects not to opt out, a conditional option kicks in for the 2026 season that is dependent on whether he throws at least 140 innings in 2025. If he does, it becomes a mutual option worth $19 million; if he doesn’t, it becomes a $14 million club option.
Despite Giolito’s 4.88 ERA, 5.27 FIP, and 41 home runs allowed (second to only Lance Lynn) in 2023, he was still perceived as a mid-rotation option entering free agency. Much of that was due to his above-average performance from 2019-21, but he has also proven he can stay healthy and make his starts. Since 2021, he is 16th in the league in innings pitched. His 184.1 IP with the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians in 2023 only further cemented his reputation. With Boston ranking second-to-last in the American League in starter innings pitched behind only Oakland, this was a practical match that came at a reasonable cost.
Giolito’s $19.25 million AAV is fifth among starting pitchers who have signed free agent contracts this offseason (excluding Shohei Ohtani), placing him in between the top and middle tier. Given that he hasn’t reached his 30th birthday, it seems plausible that he can keep up his volume while potentially improving his results and returning to the starter he was for a three-year stretch in Chicago.
After his first start with the Guardians in September (he was famously scooped up off waivers from the Angels, who had acquired him from the White Sox just five weeks prior), Giolito spoke with David Laurila about his season and impending free agency. In that conversation, Giolito was candid about his lack of execution in 2023, and how he hadn’t been able to command the anchor of his arsenal, his fastball-changeup combination. Giolito expressed that he wants to consistently command his heater up in the zone; for the changeup, the goal is more competitive pitches in the zone. Like any fastball-changeup combo, helping one will inherently help the other. As a high-release, big-extension pitcher, this is a natural path for Giolito, especially considering that the blueprint has already worked. To better understand how his fastball has fluctuated in recent seasons, let’s look at some qualities of the pitch:
Giolito Four-Seamer Characteristics
Year
Run Value
Vert. Rel
Hor. Rel
Vert. Location
Hor. Location
2019
15.3
6.56
-1.26
2.74
0.14
2020
5.8
6.49
-1.26
2.91
0.22
2021
-0.4
6.40
-1.5
2.81
0.02
2022
0.3
6.36
-1.39
2.85
0.10
2023
-7.7
6.33
-1.19
2.93
-0.07
His fastball plays best when it’s at the top of the zone. Interestingly, his fastball was located higher on average in 2023 than in any other season since 2019 but was by far the worst in terms of value, though I’m not sure that was the primary reason for his struggles. Instead, I’d look to his horizontal location, and the trend of him throwing his heater closer to righties and further away from lefties. Since his breakout in 2019, Giolito had always neutralized left-handed batters, with his fastball-changeup combo the reason. Lefties had never posted a wOBA above .283 against him; that mark jumped to .334 in 2023. By moving the pitch further to the edge (likely due to his release point change), his two-pitch combo lost some of its in-zone consistency, especially the changeup. The trend started in 2022, and even with a slight bounce back this year, the changeup still struggled:
Giolito Changeup Characteristics
Year
Run Value
Vert. Rel
Hor. Rel
Vert. Location
Hor. Location
2019
10.9
6.52
-1.31
2.14
-0.10
2020
1.7
6.48
-1.33
1.88
-0.12
2021
10.8
6.36
-1.59
2.04
-0.19
2022
-7.0
6.35
-1.44
1.88
-0.16
2023
0.6
6.29
-1.31
1.88
-0.27
Similar to the heater, the pitch moved progressively further toward righties as its performance dipped. In the two seasons where Giolito threw the pitch at its highest height on average, it’s been the most effective. Given Giolito’s tendency to keep the fastball up, a higher tunnel with the changeup is logical. But going back to its in-zone utility, 2022 and 2023 saw him have in-zone rates below 50% (45.0% and 49.2%, respectively) after he ran the pitch in the zone between 51.3% and 59.1% from 2019 to 2023. The nature of the tunnel is most deceptive when he can keep the pitch in the strike zone. All of this to say, the story that Giolito told Laurila a few months ago tracks very well. The question now is what he and the Red Sox can do to flip things back to what they were during his very good three-year run in Chicago.
Without any making any mechanical changes, my first thought would be to shift Giolito to the first base side of the rubber to ensure his pitches are moving on the side of the plate where he had success. Seems foolproof, right? The thing is, he has been on this side of the rubber for years. He can’t go any further! Here is a screenshot from a late September start:
Next, we might look to something mechanical that has had a direct impact on where he is releasing the ball or the angle his arm is at when he releases it. That makes me think of what we know about Giolito in general and what he did to become the pitcher he was from 2019-21. The most obvious thing is his abbreviated arm action. A big piece of unlocking his performance was getting his arm swing timing in line with the rest of his body by shortening it. If he got out whack in the last two seasons, perhaps it’s related to this, even if it’s not as drastic as his early career form. To analyze that, let’s do a video comparison of Giolito in 2021 versus 2023. The first two clips are from 2021 and the next two are 2023:
His arm was late during his run in Cleveland. Visually, when his lead foot stabilized on the ground, his forearm was still below 45 degrees. Ben Brewster from Tread Athletics has stated that an “on time” arm is between 45 to 90 degrees at contact/stabilization, while slightly late is from 25-45, and late is less than 25. In both Cleveland clips, Gio’s arm is hardly getting to 25 degrees when his lead leg block contacts the ground. In Chicago, he is hovering somewhere around 60 degrees, give or take.
Basically, we know what Giolito’s arm looks like when it’s on time. When looking at where he was in Cleveland, it’s clear he was later than is ideal for him. In terms of release point and command, it makes sense that he has lost some feel. His arm is in a different position than when he was succeeding. Trying to execute the same game plan with this difference, even if it is slight, can be difficult. The good news is that this change hasn’t affected his health or ability to maintain volume. The bad news is that if his body isn’t as mobile in some areas as it was in his mid-20s, these positions might not be as attainable.
Even if Giolito doesn’t make a return to his peak form from a few years ago, he is still a positive addition for the Red Sox. As their rotation is currently constructed, it’s highly plausible that he will lead the team in innings, as no other pitcher on the roster has ever thrown more than 180 in their respective careers. Giolito is a good start to raising their floor, but they need a sure-thing, high-quality pitcher. And while Chris Sale isn’t that pitcher anymore, trading him to Atlanta only further increases their need. What they do from here on will depend on their willingness to open their pocket book or deal from their core of position player prospects.
For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Batters
Last year, I noted in this space that I had to double-check the Diamondbacks’ ZiPS projections, as the computer seemed surprisingly optimistic about Arizona’s outlook. It turned out to be a little too optimistic, though I was wrong about the relative strength of the Giants and Padres, who both finished below the Snakes in the standings (though you can quibble about how good the Padres actually were in 2023).
Naturally, since ZiPS had a sunny view of Arizona then, it’s certainly not going to be less sunny now that a lot of the things the system liked have came to pass. Looking at the 2024 projections as a whole, they actually feels very Cardinals-y, and not in the sense of the 2023 Cardinals. The projections from top to bottom are quite steady, in the manner of a good Cards team, with a lot of positional flexibility on the roster and a solidly above-average projected defense from bow to stern. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley recap news and transactions from over the holidays, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s thoughts on San Francisco and Yu Darvish’s thoughts on the Dodgers signing his WBC teammates, the Mariners signing Mitch Garver, the Reds signing Frankie Montas, a smattering of Blue Jays and White Sox signings, the Estevan Florial trade, and the retirement of Andrelton Simmons. Then (49:19) they discuss the Lucas Giolito signing and the Chris Sale trade before segueing into a Stat Blast (1:07:05) about the evolution of starting-pitcher workloads, volume vs. efficiency, and what an “innings eater” is in 2024.
Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!
Sponsor Us on Patreon
Facebook Group
Twitter Account
EW Subreddit
Effectively Wild Wiki
iTunes Feed
Get Our Merch!