There are 2,841 players who have received at least 2,000 major-league plate appearances in baseball history. Only 13 of them — including two Hall-of-Fame pitchers, Cy Young and Warren Spahn — have had a lower wRC+ than Austin Hedges. This year, he’s turned in one of his worst lines yet, a .180/.237/.230 slash good for a 28 wRC+. So what do the first-place Rangers want with him?
There are 473 players have appeared at catcher since the advent of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2003. Only four — Yadier Molina, Russell Martin, Buster Posey, and Jeff Mathis — have a higher DRS than Hedges. This year, he’s tied for fifth among backstops in DRS and tops in our framing runs metric.
Thus far, the Rangers have the majors’ second-best offense by wRC+ with a 120 mark. Their defense hasn’t been shabby — they’re tied for fifth in DRS — but I suppose it’s more in need of an upgrade than their offense. Then again, it’s not as if the Rangers had much of a choice: aside from Alex Jackson and Korey Lee, who have all of 211 major league plate appearances between them, no other backstops were traded this deadline. And Texas needs a known commodity to serve as depth behind the plate right now; incumbent Jonah Heim was placed on the IL Friday, destabilizing the position. Read the rest of this entry »
The Phillies and Tigers are at it again. After a five-player swap back in January, Dave Dombrowski is making another trade with his former club. With the top five teams in the NL wild card race currently separated by a grand total of one game in the loss column, the Phillies, currently in command of the second wild card spot by a whopping half a game, decided to grab a reinforcement for the rotation and bullpen, trading prospect Hao-Yu Lee to the Tigers in exchange for right-hander Michael Lorenzen. They also designated veteran utility man Josh Harrison for assignment to make room for Lorenzen on the 40-man roster. And at least one Phillies player is very excited about this trade:
Brandon Marsh, who played with Michael Lorenzen in 2022 with the Angels, says he is a “great pitcher, an incredible teammate, and has big biceps.”
“He’s gonna be a great fit here. I’m super excited to see him again and give him a hug. I hope he picks me up. He’s strong.”
The 31-year-old Lorenzen, who will be a free agent this winter, is in the midst of his best season since 2020, running a 3.58 ERA and a 3.88 FIP. That improvement has largely come via limiting walks: after averaging a 9.9% walk rate from 2017 to ’19, he’s at 6.5% this season. He’s done that not by increasing his chase rate, but simply by throwing more pitches in the zone, with his zone rate rising from 39.8% in 2022 to 45.7% this year. Lorenzen throws four pitches more than 10% of the time — four-seamer, slider, changeup, and sinker — and is throwing all of them in the zone more often this season than last. In doing so, he traded some whiffs for some called strikes, a swap that has so far paid off. He’s also improved dramatically against lefties, with a .279 wOBA against them this year, down from a career mark of .323.
There’s a troubling trend worth noting, though. Lorenzen’s 4.80 DRA is higher than his 2022 mark of 4.32. His average exit velocity and barrel rate are at career highs, and while his .323 wOBAcon is right in line with last year’s .329 mark, his .362 xwOBAcon is the highest since his rookie season in 2015. Lorenzen might be getting a little lucky on balls in play or getting a little extra help from his defense. Both of those tricks will be harder to pull off at Citizens Bank Park than they were at Comerica Park. Still, it might help your wOBAcon just a bit when the center fielder is willing to run through a brick wall for you. Read the rest of this entry »
There’s something strange going on in the desert. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best stories in baseball this year, led by Corbin Carroll and a motley crew of veterans and rookies. An early season tear sat them atop the NL West, and we gave them an 80% chance of making the playoffs on July 1. Whoops – they’ve gone 8-16 since then, the worst record in the NL, and now they’re scrambling to make the playoffs. Time to make some trades!
Tommy Pham fits perfectly with what Arizona is going for. After a desultory three-year stretch from 2020-22 where he posted a 94 wRC+, he’s been one of the lone bright spots for the Mets this year. He’s hitting .268/.348/.472, and his quality of contact has been even better than that; he has a shiny .390 xwOBA and is smashing balls left and right. His plate discipline, always a strength, has never been better. He’s posted as much WAR this year as in those three previous ones.
The Diamondbacks could use that kind of production. They’ve relied on four regular outfielders this season, and only Carroll has been good. Jake McCarthy has an 85 wRC+ and the underlying stats to match. Alek Thomas checks in at a 79 wRC+. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the best of the group, but that’s faint praise; he’s hitting .249/.296/.448 with a 98 wRC+ himself. Murderer’s row, this is not. Read the rest of this entry »
This past offseason, the Marlins prioritized contact in free agency and trades, acquiring Yuli Gurriel, Jean Segura, and Luis Arraez to fill out an infield that already had Joey Wendle. I think we can all agree that results on those moves has been mixed. Nevertheless, the Marlins currently sit at 57–50 and are eyebrows-deep in the playoff race. The bubble season notwithstanding, Miami hasn’t made the playoffs since 2023; bucking that trend would mean the world for the Marlins.
In pursuit of that goal, Miami shifted its focus and acquired Jake Burger from the White Sox. Picture Segura or Gurriel in their prime, or Arraez now. Burger is the opposite of that: a hitter with unbelievable power who strikes out more in a week than Arraez does in a month. In exchange, Miami sent left-handed pitching prospect Jake Eder to Chicago. This exchange of Jakes will probably go under the radar given the big names who were moved, or at least discussed, this deadline, but it’s a fascinating trade all the same. Read the rest of this entry »
The Mets’ losses are the American League West’s gains. Three days after the Rangers landedMax Scherzer, the Astros have reacquired Justin Verlander, who less than nine months ago helped them win the World Series, and soon after pocketed his third Cy Young Award. In exchange for the future Hall of Famer and a whole lot of cash, the Mets are receiving two of the Astros’ top prospects, lefty-swinging outfielders Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford.
This is the continuation of a stunning about-face for the Mets, who signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.7 million contract in December and opened the season with a record-setting $352 million payroll. They entered Tuesday at 50-55, 17.5 games out of first place and six back in the Wild Card race, with seven teams above them. Once owner Steve Cohen gave general manager Billy Eppler the green light to trade closer David Robertson to the Marlins last Friday, the dominoes began falling, with Scherzer waiving his no-trade clause to be dealt to Texas, and then Mark Canha being sent to Milwaukee on Monday.
As with the Scherzer deal, the Mets are eating the majority of the remaining money on Verlander’s contract to improve their return. They sent $35.5 million out of the roughly $57.7 million remaining on Scherzer’s two-year, $86.7 million contract to Texas and received middle infielder Luisangel Acuña, a 50-FV prospect who’s currently no. 56 on The Board. Via the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the Mets will send $52.5 million of the $93 million remaining on Verlander’s pact, assuming his 2025 conditional player option vests. They’ll pay $35 million to help cover this year and next; he’s due around another $14.2 million for 2023 and $43.3 million for ’24. If he pitches 140 innings in 2024 and does not have a right arm injury that would prevent him from being on the active roster for Opening Day ’25, he’ll make $35 million, of which the Mets will pay half. Read the rest of this entry »
The Atlanta Braves made another fine-tuning move on Tuesday, bringing in veteran left-hander Brad Hand from Colorado in exchange for minor league right-hander Alec Barger. Hand joins his ninth big league club – his seventh since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season – where he’ll factor into a righty-heavy bullpen stocked with veterans. (With his latest relocation, Hand is a lock for the Immaculate Grid Hall of Fame, though Rich Hill was not to be outdone and found himself yet another team Tuesday afternoon.)
The Braves, who are just 7-8 since the All-Star break, already had significant pitching help coming by way of the injured list. They activated lefty A.J. Minter on Monday and stand to get Max Fried back soon, with Dylan Lee and Kyle Wright hopefully returning in the coming weeks as well. But Hand gives them another veteran option with just about every type of experience a relief pitcher can offer. After acquiring backup infielder Nicky Lopez – the third Lopez to get dealt at this year’s deadline – for the recently-acquired Taylor Hearn on Sunday, the Hand deal is another low-cost upgrade to a team that is fully intent on making a run at a championship this October. At season’s end, Hand and the Braves have what is now a $7 million mutual option for 2024, with a $500,000 buyout.
Hand’s 2023 isn’t particularly shiny, but some of that is the result of one particularly bad outing. He’s given up 18 earned runs in 35.2 innings over 40 outings, but four of those came on July 2, when he walked three and gave up a grand slam to Jake Marisnick in Denver. Take that line off his game log and he’d have a 3.63 ERA instead of his actual 4.54 mark (next to a 4.03 FIP and 4.07 xFIP), while his walk rate would drop from 10.2% to 8.7%. He’s pretty clearly not the same pitcher he was during an elite 2017-19 run that sent him to three straight All-Star Games, but he hasn’t lost much velocity since those days. His sweeper has been less effective than in previous years and is breaking less, though some of that difference may be a result of an uptick in velocity. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Charlie Culberson’s surprising staying power as a barely-playing big leaguer, then break down the first batch of trades preceding the trade deadline, including deals involving Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Nicky Lopez, Randal Grichuk, and C.J. Cron. They also discuss the lack of impact hitters on the market, Matt Chapman dissing the Angels’ offense, how intentional walks affect Shohei Ohtani’s WAR, and how a misaligned strike-zone graphic may have angered Phil Nevin. Then (1:08:34) Ben brings on White Sox pitcher Declan Cronin, the first major leaguer from Ben’s alma mater, Regis High School, for an in-person Meet a Major Leaguer segment with a player promoted thanks to deadline deals. They talk about Declan’s underdog career path as a Regis Raider, Holy Cross Crusader, and 36th-round draftee, his call-up and debut, his data-driven development, his second job at Tread Athletics, and more, followed (1:52:33) by a Future Blast from 2040.
The Astros have yet again acquired pitcher Justin Verlander and cash on deadline day, this time from the Mets for outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. Verlander, signed to a two-year, $86.667 million contract before the season, put up a 3.15 ERA and a 3.81 FIP in 16 starts for the Mets. The exact amount of cash being sent along with Verlander is not yet known.
Verlander pitching for a team that wasn’t the Astros just felt kind of odd. While he certainly didn’t spend the bulk of his career in Houston, it’s where he had his personal pitching renaissance, where he clinched his future Hall of Fame membership, and where he got his championship rings. Verlander in blue-and-orange felt like that episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation in which Jean-Luc Picard is kind of a sad-sack 60-year-old ensign because he didn’t get in a bar fight as a youngster. Or maybe it’s like when you’re trying to buy a Coke at some rural gas station, but they’re out, and you end up with some bizarre generic cola that may have been sitting there since the Reagan years. Verlander’s opinion may vary, but from at least this fan, it feels like something that went wrong has been set right by Scott Bakula.
The Astros aren’t just trying to satisfy nostalgia; they needed a starting pitcher, so why not one they have a longstanding relationship with? A rash of injuries has left the rotation thinner than they would like heading into the homestretch, and they have a real dogfight this year with the Rangers, who’ve already addedMax ScherzerandJordan Montgomery; there’s no lapping the division by 15 games. Verlander has shown some clear signs of aging this year, as hitters are less prone to whiffing and are hitting the ball harder, and his control isn’t quite as precise as in the past. But these are normal things for a 40-year-old pitcher, and nearly every pitcher who is still in the league at 40 is going to fall out of it during the ensuing few seasons. Houston isn’t asking Verlander to carry the team, but to be a dependable, healthy arm who keeps the team in games. That he’ll do.
The money has not yet been disclosed — check my colleague Jay Jaffe’s upcoming piece for this and more — but my initial guess is “a bunch.” Verlander’s contract is a hefty one, and both Gilbert and Clifford are legitimate prospects; I can’t imagine the Astros would have parted with them if they were also paying full or near-full freight on Verlander. Our prospect team has already shifted in Gilbert as the new No. 1 prospect on the Mets, and while his stats at Double-A Corpus Christi are far from eye-popping, you have to remember that this is his first full professional season. ZiPS sees him peaking as a near two-win outfielder in the .260/.330/.400 range, though the error bars are quite wide when you’re talking someone with so little professional experience. ZiPS is highly interested in Clifford’s power upside (as is the scouting community), but there are a lot of questions about his plate discipline and defensive value to be answered.
MLB will have to approve any deal where more than $2 million changes hands, as will be the case with Verlander and Houston. That has not happened yet, so the deal will not be official for a little while .
Some players are irreplaceable because they’re especially good. Some players are irreplaceable because they’re weird. In the hours before the deadline, the Padres have acquired two of the latter: left-handed pitcher Rich Hill and first baseman Ji Man Choi, both late of the Pittsburgh Pirates. First baseman Alfonso Rivas is headed east, along with prospects Jackson Wolf, a left-handed pitcher, and Estuar Suero, an outfielder.
The Padres are in an awkward position; they’re coming off a trip to the NLCS, including a corner-turning defeat of their Southern California rivals, the Dodgers. Last deadline, they traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader before signing Xander Bogaerts this past offseason. With team payroll in excess of $250 million, the time to win is now, now, now.
Unfortunately, the team’s performance has failed to live up to expectations. As the deadline looms, the Padres are three games under .500 and five games out of a Wild Card spot. That number is imposing enough on its own with just two months to play, but no fewer than three teams stand between San Diego and even a brief appearance in the postseason. Their playoff odds, as of Tuesday afternoon, stood at 34.3%. And with Blake Snell and Hader bound for free agency at season’s end, San Diego had just as good a case for selling as for buying at the deadline. Read the rest of this entry »
About 12 hours after Bo Bichette left Monday night’s game with a right knee injury, the Blue Jays found his possible replacement, acquiring shortstop Paul DeJong and cash considerations from the Cardinals on Tuesday afternoon for minor league reliever Matt Svanson.
DeJong being relevant again might make you think that you’ve warped back to pre-2020 days, but hang on before you load up on masks and toilet paper; he’s actually had a nice little 2023 season. I don’t think anyone would argue with me if I said the Cardinals were having a season with a stunning lack of pleasant surprises, but DeJong’s year has been one of those rarities. While a triple-slash of .233/.297/.412 won’t get you to many All-Star Games, it’s a much prettier line than his .196/.280/.351 collapse from 2020 to ’22, reaching a nadir with a ’22 season in which DeJong needed a telescope just to see the Mendoza line. He still plays solid defense at shortstop, and his bat has rebounded enough that there’s once again a significant role for him on a major league roster. The only reason he was even in St. Louis this year was the six-year contract he signed before the 2018 season.
The #BlueJays are sending minor-league reliever Matt Svanson, 24, in return for Paul DeJong and cash considerations. DeJong, who's in the final year of a six-year, $26 million contract, earns $9M this year with a $12.5M option or $2M buyout in 2024.
While this piece has the “2023 trade deadline tag,” that’s actually kind of a lie; this is a regular ol’ injury replacement trade that just happened to coincide with the deadline. The full extent of Bichette’s injury probably won’t be known before the trade market closes up shop for the fall, so the Jays had to act quickly unless they wanted to try to replace him in-house. And while they had options in the organization, all of them had at least one seriously concerning issue. Santiago Espinal is more an emergency shortstop than a starter, and Cavan Biggio only has two professional innings at short. And neither is providing enough offense to make you want to take that defensive risk. In the minors, Addison Barger has suffered through elbow problems this season and isn’t a natural shortstop either, and Orelvis Martinez just debuted at Triple-A. Ernie Clement turning into a weird plate discipline deity is interesting, but more for a bad team in search of an upside play, not a team in a tight, crowded pennant race that needs some certainty.
ZiPS Projection – Paul DeJong
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
DR
WAR
RoS 2023
.220
.297
.433
141
19
31
6
0
8
21
13
45
2
100
2
0.9
2024
.221
.294
.421
399
53
88
17
0
21
62
36
127
5
96
6
2.2
2025
.220
.295
.420
381
51
84
16
0
20
57
35
122
4
97
5
2.0
ZiPS 2024 Projection Percentiles – Paul DeJong
Percentile
2B
HR
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
WAR
95%
26
33
.269
.338
.551
138
4.4
90%
24
30
.259
.329
.525
131
4.0
80%
21
27
.245
.316
.483
119
3.4
70%
20
25
.235
.307
.456
109
2.9
60%
18
22
.227
.301
.436
102
2.5
50%
17
21
.221
.294
.421
96
2.2
40%
16
19
.214
.286
.403
91
1.9
30%
15
18
.205
.279
.386
84
1.5
20%
13
16
.195
.271
.367
78
1.1
10%
11
13
.181
.256
.340
65
0.5
5%
10
11
.171
.244
.322
60
0.1
DeJong’s options are now a little more complicated. At $12.5 million and $15 million, I imagine the Cardinals would have declined them as they did with Kolten Wong after a solid 2020 season. He has a $2 million buyout for 2024, and there may be a scenario in which the Jays pick it up if Bichette’s injury turns out to be fairly serious one. Is $10.5 million (since $2 million is baked into the cake either way) minus whatever the Cardinals are sending with him not worth it for them to keep DeJong as the starting shortstop for an undetermined part of next season before making him a utility infielder?
There was no reason to expect the Cardinals to get a haul of prospects for DeJong. Svanson is having a bit of a breakout season in the minors as a reliever, but you can’t ignore the fact that it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A ball. My colleague Eric Longenhagen has his two-seamer at 92–94 mph and his slider at 84, and that he would be an honorable mention in the Jays prospect list but would not make the main rankings. ZiPS turns Svanson’s 1.23 ERA/2.55 FIP into a 4.30 ERA translation with the Cardinals in 2023 because, well, 24-year-old in High-A ball. But if he advances quickly — and he will need to in order to have any kind of career in the majors — he could show up at the back of the big league bullpen.
Toronto would much prefer that Bichette’s knee is a minor issue that resolves quickly, but they’ve rightly formulated a solid Plan B here. There’s literally no time like the present.
*****BREAKING NEWS UPDATE EMERGENCY SIREN JAZZ HANDS*****
There’s no serious damage to Bichette’s knee, though it’s not determined whether or not he will need to head onto the IL. At the very least, we might see Bichette play more DH as they work him back into the lineup, whenever it is, and DeJong still remains a quality Plan B in the case of a setback. Bichette’s injury not being a serious one does reduce the chance that the Blue Jays will pick up one of DeJong’s options.
As everyone has seen by now, an MRI showed there is no structural damage in Bo Bichette’s right knee, per #BlueJays manager John Schneider, who described it as best case scenarios. Bichette isn’t in the lineup today but he’s day to day. Still determining if an IL stint is needed
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