The Astros are almost definitely going to make the playoffs again. They have a four-game lead in the AL West with 22 games to play, which puts them at roughly 2-to-1 odds in favor of winning the division and 9-to-1 odds in favor of taking part in the postseason in some fashion. That would make nine playoff appearances in a row and 10 in 11 years for the Astros, across multiple roster makeovers, three front office regimes, and three managers. Same as it ever was.

What’s a little unusual about this Astros team is that the pitching staff is a bit unsettled. Not unheard of, to be sure; I remember that 2017 team with a pitching staff that destabilized to total entropy after Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel. But manager Joe Espada is going to have to do a little tinkering here to make sure the pieces all fit. Read the rest of this entry »

For a good chunk of this season, a third MVP award for Aaron Judge looked inevitable. As late as May 21, he still had a batting average above .400 (.402/.491/.755, good for a 236 wRC+). As late as July 25, he had played every game and was on pace for 58 homers. And as late as August 6, he still had a slugging percentage above .700 (.339/.446/.702).

Unfortunately, a right flexor strain suffered while attempting to throw a runner out at the plate on July 22 sent Judge to the injured list a few day later. While he spent only the minimum 10 days on the IL, his bat cooled off, and now he’s neck-and-neck with Cal Raleigh in the AL MVP race. But even if he doesn’t win, the 33-year-old Judge has done something very impressive. In just his 10th major league season, he’s surpassed the JAWS standard for right fielders, which is to say that he’s got a higher score (58.5) than the average enshrinee at the position (56.0).

With that distinction, Judge joins Mike Trout and Mookie Betts among active players to reach the JAWS standard at their positions by the time they fulfilled the Hall of Fame’s 10-year eligibility requirement (playing in parts of 10 seasons, not accruing 10 years of service time). That’s the province of legends; among position players whose careers crossed into the 21st century, the only others to attain that distinction are Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Rickey Henderson, Mike Piazza, Albert Pujols, Cal Ripken Jr., and Alex Rodriguez. That makes Judge an apt choice to lead off the third and final installment of this year’s annual Hall of Fame progress series (pitchers and catchers are here, infielders here). Note that unless otherwise indicated, all WAR figures within refer to the Baseball Reference version, and all statistics are through September 1. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, the application period for this position is now closed. Thank you for your interest.

FanGraphs is now accepting applications to join our staff as a full-time prospect writer.

The prospect writer will work with lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and other members of the FanGraphs staff to produce organizational top prospect lists, amateur draft coverage, and other minor league and prospect-related content. A successful candidate will be able to evaluate prospects using in-person looks, video scouting, and data. Familiarity and comfort with advanced statistics is a requirement, as is prior scouting or prospect evaluation experience and a firm understanding of the minor league landscape. Just as importantly, we’re looking for a writer who can generate their own ideas, produce lively and engaging prose, and detail what makes a prospect good (or bad) in a way that is educational, accurate, and fun to read. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, the dream is dead. Throughout the season, I have been tracking Nick Allen’s chances of reopening the Homerless Qualifier Club, the exclusive fraternity of players who make enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title but fail to hit a single home run. In 2022, Myles Straw became the only entrant since 2012 and just the 19th of the century. Allen has played in 128 of Atlanta’s 139 games, but batting last and frequently giving up his spot in favor of a pinch-hitter has kept him just under the threshold of 3.1 plate appearances per game all season long. The cruel cat-and-mouse game is finally over, though, because the Braves have claimed Ha-Seong Kim from the Rays off waivers. Kim started at shortstop on Tuesday, going 2-for-4. Manager Brian Snitker made it clear that Kim will play there for the remainder of the season.

Kim tore the labrum in his right shoulder on August 18 last year, requiring surgery and putting an unceremonious end to his final season with the Padres. The Rays took a gamble on him knowing that he wouldn’t be available until May at the earliest, signing him on a two-year deal with an opt-out for $13 million this year (with $2 million more in incentives), then $16 million in 2026. If he performed well, Tampa Bay would have him for one season at a big discount, and he’d get a second shot at having a proper platform year. Instead, Kim’s return was delayed until July by hamstring and calf injuries, and lower back issues put him on the IL twice more in the past two months. In all, Kim got into just 24 games with the Rays, making 93 plate appearances and recording a wRC+ of 72, his worst offensive showing since 2021, his first year in the U.S. That made keeping Kim around for the 2026 season too big a risk for the Rays.

All of this is a shame. Kim is a great player, an excellent, versatile defender with a solid bat, and injuries have now robbed him of his second chance to sign a deal that would reflect that excellence. Even if he puts up a fantastic 2026 campaign, he’ll be re-entering free agency after his age-30 season, which isn’t easy for a player whose value is so wrapped up in his glove.

Now, the Braves are the team taking a chance on Kim. Unless he puts up the greatest September in recent memory, he will forego his opt-out and get paid $16 million to anchor the Atlanta infield in 2026. He wouldn’t have to return all the way to the form he showed from 2022 to 2024 – when he ran a 106 wRC+ with 15 DRS and 7 FRV to average 4.0 WAR per 162 games – in order to make that a bargain. Still, he represents a risk. Atlanta is tying itself to a player who has suffered several minor injuries while recovering from a major one, and who hasn’t performed in his limited time with Tampa Bay. On the other hand, that time was so limited that it’s hard to tell where the noise leaves off and the signal starts. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t think you can do this job for any amount of time without getting attached to particular players. Not even in the sense of having love or affection — certain ballplayers are just interesting to certain writers. For me, that manifests in just checking in with those players once or twice a season to see how they’re doing. Which reminds me, I’m overdue for my next updates on Willy Adames and Trevor Rogers.

I sometimes preface blogs about such players with the phrase, “Longtime readers might remember…”

Well, longtime readers might remember Hurston Waldrep’s splitter. Read the rest of this entry »

I’d like to present the meatball-iest pitch thrown so far in 2025:

I know, I know! I said that, but it’s just a foul ball. Hear me out, though, because I can put some data behind my claim. Here at FanGraphs, PitchingBot, our in-house pitch modeling system, looks at every single pitch thrown, regresses it against a huge database of past pitches, and uses some mathematical ingenuity to turn that into the expected outcomes of the pitch. That’s not the same as knowing which pitch is most likely to turn into a home run, but luckily, a good bit of mathematical wrangling can turn pitch grades into home run percentages.

Last year, I worked out the rough contours of converting PitchingBot grades into home run likelihood. This year, I’ve expanded that methodology to try to learn a little bit more about the pitchers doing the meatballing. If you’d like to skip through the how, you can head right down to the table labeled “Meatball Mongers.” If you’re here for the nitty gritty of turning pitch metrics into home run likelihood, though, here’s how I did it.

That Trent Thornton fastball had a lot of things working against it, and those things help explain how PitchingBot estimates the chances that a pitch will be hit for a home run. PitchingBot has a flowchart that explains how the model works. Here’s how the system assesses every pitch it grades:

Hey, a convenient “start here” label! How great! The “swing model” takes location, count, pitch type, movement, platoon matchups, and pretty much everything else you can imagine into account and guesses at the likelihood of a batter swinging at each pitch. That Thornton fastball was down the middle in an 0-1 count, and it’s not a particularly deceptive offering. In other words, hitters often swing at fastballs like that – 92.7% of the time, per PitchingBot’s model. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley talk about not talking about the Cardinals, then banter about Sandy Alcantara’s resurgence, whether Walker Buehler will have his own bounceback for the Phillies, Ha-Seong Kim’s reunion with Jurickson Profar, the concept of “adversarial location,” Aroldis Chapman and Taj Bradley‘s discoveries of inside/outside and scouting reports, respectively, Chapman’s extension, whether Luis Arraez’s strikeout avoidance is still fun, a notable FARTBAT, switch-thrower Carlos Cortes, and Meg’s Mariners anxiety.

Audio intro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)”

Link to Cardinals odds graph
Link to Cardinals WAR leaders
Link to team attendance changes
Link to preseason team projections
Link to Glaser bobblehead
Link to Alcantara leaderboard
Link to team SP projections
Link to team RP projections
Link to Judge article
Link to Olney video
Link to Olney pitch-type splits
Link to Dan S. on Chapman
Link to Chapman on DV
Link to Bradley article
Link to K%+ leaderboard
Link to Dan S. on Arraez
Link to Sam on Arraez
Link to Goodhart’s Law
Link to FARTBAT episode
Link to Story HR video
Link to Story HR article
Link to Cortes article

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The Red Sox got to work on their 2026 bullpen over the holiday weekend, signing closer Aroldis Chapman to a contract extension that keeps him in Boston for at least one more season. Chapman’s one-year, $13.3 million deal comes in the form of a $12 million salary for next season, a $1 million signing bonus, and a $300,000 buyout if a $13 million mutual option for 2027 is not exercised. That option becomes guaranteed if he pitches 40 innings in 2026 and passes a physical exam after the season.

After appearing to be in decline for at least a few years and falling out of the conversation of baseball’s top closers — and at times losing the closer’s role altogether — Chapman is dominating in his first season with the Red Sox. Entering play Tuesday, he has a 1.00 ERA and a 1.78 FIP over 54 innings with 77 strikeouts and 14 walks. No, you didn’t misread that last part: Chapman has issued only 14 free passes this season across 54 innings, which works out to a rate of 7.1% and 2.33 BB/9 — by far the lowest marks of his career. Even at his absolute best, Chapman would walk three or four batters per nine innings, a reasonable trade-off for the rest of his skillset. However, as he aged, that control degraded, and from 2021 through 2024, he walked 15% of the batters he faced. So, for him to suddenly put up the best control season of his career, at age 37, is an impressive feat.

ESPN’s Buster Olney talked a bit about how Chapman’s approach changed in the spring, but the basic explanation for what we’re seeing is he has stopped throwing his fastball down the middle. Instead, on the advice of Boston catcher Connor Wong and with the assistance of PitchCom, Chapman is now actually trying to spot his heater. While this is the type of anecdote that sometimes sounds like folklore, the data do suggest that Chapman is suddenly locating his fastball with dramatically more competence than in the past. According to Stuff+, Chapman’s Location+ of 179 for his fastball is the fifth-best number ever tallied (min. 40 innings), compared to the 94 he ran over his past four seasons. His sinker, once a sideshow in his repertoire, has become its focal point in the way the slider once was. This isn’t a sinker thrown to induce a groundball but to be an out pitch, a 100-mph sinker high and outside against righties, high and hard on the hands of lefties. Only one player in Statcast history has ever finished with a better whiff rate on his sinker than Chapman’s 38.9% this season: Josh Hader in 2019 (40.7%) and 2021 (40.5%). Read the rest of this entry »

This is the second post in a series I’m working on in which I not only do a deep dive analyzing shortstop prospects’ defense, but also cut together a video package so that you can too. The first installment can be found in the navigation widget above. Today, I’m tackling Red Sox prospect Franklin Arias, Yankees prospect George Lombard Jr., Cardinals prospect JJ Wetherholt, and Reds prospect Edwin Arroyo. Let’s get started. Read the rest of this entry »

When Troy Melton was first featured here at FanGraphs in August 2023, he was described as a “Tigers Pitching Prospect on the Rise.” Then with High-A West Michigan and in his first full professional season, the 2022 fourth-rounder out of San Diego State University was climbing the rankings thanks largely to a firm fastball and plus command. As Eric Longenhagen put it, “His fastball’s impact alone should be enough to make him a good big league reliever even if his secondary stuff doesn’t develop.”

Two years later, the 24-year-old right-hander was ranked the fifth-best prospect in the Tigers system and 70th overall in our 2025 updated Top 100 list. His ascent has landed him in Motown, and a markedly improved repertoire is a big reason why. Moreover, he has been one of the team’s most effective pitchers since his late-July arrival. Over 10 appearances — seven out of the bullpen and three as a starter — Melton has logged a 2.25 ERA and a 3.66 FIP over 32 innings.

An argument could be made that Melton is currently the second-best starting pitcher on the Tigers roster — behind only Tarik Skubal — even though he isn’t getting an opportunity to show it. The AL Central leaders are primarily using the rookie as a reliever, the reasons being twofold: The 107 1/3 innings he’s thrown between the minors and majors are already a career high, and Detroit would rather use him more than just every fifth day. According to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press, manager A.J. Hinch said, “It’s an advantage to have Troy Melton available more often, even if it’s just in shorter bursts.”

Hinch went on to say that the Tigers “may start him down the road this season,” and results suggest that could be a good idea. Over the past six weeks, the foursome of Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Charlie Morton, and Chris Paddack has registered ERAs ranging from 4.66 to 5.81. Meanwhile, Melton’s mark over his three starts, covering 17 innings, is 3.18. Prior to his call-up, the youngster fashioned a 2.72 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate across 18 games (16 starts) with Triple-A Toledo. Read the rest of this entry »