Remember when the Blue Jays and Rockies connected for a blockbuster deal that sent Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto? That was eight years ago today, and that was also when Jeff Hoffman was a top prospect. A year before that, the young right-hander was so highly touted that even though news of a torn UCL surfaced weeks before draft day, the Jays still took him ninth overall. Sure enough, he rewarded them by touching 99 in his pro debut at High-A Dunedin the next season and the Jays rewarded him by… trading him to the Rockies two months later.

The state motto of Colorado is “Nil Sine Numine,” or “Nothing without Providence,” but it might as well be “Ubi Iuvenēs Iactūs Eunt Morior,” or (if my high school Latin isn’t failing me), “Where Young Pitchers go to Die.” Perhaps it’s due to the inherent discouragement that comes from pitching on the moon, or the lack of investment in player development. Either way, Hoffman’s tenure with the Rockies started innocently enough. He tossed 118.2 innings of 4.02 ERA, 4.13 FIP ball — with a 24.2% K rate to boot — in the notoriously offense-heavy Pacific Coast League in just his second pro season (2016), earning him his first taste of the majors. But as most pitchers arriving on other planets do, the right-hander struggled to the tune of a 4.88 ERA and 6.27 FIP in 31.1 innings spread over eight appearances (six starts).

Over the next four seasons, Hoffman split his time between Triple-A and the majors. He received extended looks in the big league rotation in 2017 and 2019, but he floundered both times. Overall, he tossed 230.2 innings for Colorado’s big league club with a 6.40 ERA and 5.58 FIP, and he didn’t even crack a 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. To make matters worse, after that stellar Triple-A debut in 2016, he pitched to a 5.87 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 243.2 innings in the minors (all but three frames at the highest level) from 2017-19. But the strikeout potential was still there; he also K’ed 23.1% of the hitters he faced in the minors during that time. Read the rest of this entry »

Strength up the middle is important to any contender, but with so many teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot, it’s no surprise some of them are have some weak spots. Perhaps it’s easier for a team to convince itself that the metrics aren’t capturing the entirety of a weak-hitting player’s defense if they’re playing a premium position, which seems to be the case at both catcher and center fielder.

While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. Interestingly enough, two of the seven teams below the WAR cutoff for right field also make the list for left field: one because it’s far below, and the other because it’s right on the line. I’m listing the capsules in order of their left field rankings first while noting those two crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 1 deadline, but these are teams to keep an eye upon. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are through July 26, but team won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through July 27. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mets and Marlins making a trade for much-needed bullpen help? If you told April me that was happening, I’d completely believe you. That New York bullpen looks shaky without Edwin Díaz at the top. Past me is in for a surprise, of course. It turns out that the Mets are out of the race this year and the Marlins are making a run at the Wild Card. Yesterday, the Mets sent David Robertson to Miami in exchange for Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez, two teenage hitting prospects.

Miami’s greatest need is not in the bullpen. They have one of the worst offenses in baseball – not just among playoff teams, but across the league as a whole. But their bullpen, which started the season on a tear, has been remarkably un-clutch in recent weeks. From the beginning of the season through a month ago, that ‘pen added around 3.5 wins worth of win probability, one of the best units in the game. In the last month, they’ve cost the Marlins around 1.5 wins, one of the worst results. For a team that’s scoring so little, holding on to every last lead is of utmost importance.

The Dylan Floro/Jorge López swap from earlier this week was, to be frank, not much help. It seems to me that the Marlins got the worse of the two players, at least for this year. But adding Robertson is a huge step in the right direction. He’ll slot into the closer role in Miami immediately, with Tanner Scott serving as his high-leverage deputy. A ton of power arms follow, none of whom are without risk, but that’s just how bullpens go these days. Read the rest of this entry »

This might sound familiar, but Carlos Santana has been traded to a playoff contender. After signing a one-year deal with the Pirates in the offseason, he has been sent to the Brewers to help reinforce the second-worst offense in the National League (88 wRC+). In return, the Pirates will get back teenage shortstop Jhonny Severino, an international free agent who signed for $1.2 million last summer and only has 60 professional games under his belt.

At this late point in Santana’s career, he has established himself as a reliable, average player, playing in 94 games, accumulating 393 plate appearances, and posting a 99 wRC+ this season after a 102 mark last season. The production comes through in a slightly different way, but he has a 99 wRC+ from the left side and a 100 wRC+ from the right side. Similarly, he is a reliable defender; so far, he sits at +2 OAA with a 0% success rate added. Across the board, this is an average dude.

We know who Santana is. Santana knows who he is. The Brewers know who he is. That isn’t super sexy, but the Brewers do not need sexy at first base; competence is a good first step for them. In Jay Jaffe’s Replacement Level Killers series, they topped the list at first base; no team has gotten less production at the position. Santana has accumulated 1.0 WAR on the year, so it’s not as if he is a huge difference maker, but he can provide a necessary stability as Milwaukee tries to hold on to first place in the NL Central.

As for the Pirates’ side of things: Severino doesn’t have much professional experience. This year, he has only played 12 games with 52 plate appearances in the complex league thanks to a sprained left wrist. In terms of his profile, he is a big, projectable infielder who most likely fits at third base long-term but is currently at shortstop. Overall, he has a 40 Future Value and slots in at 23rd on the Pirates list in the same tier as prospects like Dariel Lopez and major leaguers such as Nick Gonzales.

There is upside in Severino’s power, which looks like it will work to all fields. At 18 years old, he is already showing legitimate pop. There is also downside in the hit tool, though. From the little that we’ve seen, he is running a 30-grade chase rate, and his 1% walk rate is slightly concerning. But that could improve with more time; for example, he ran a 7% walk rate in 198 plate appearances last year.

To round this out, let’s look some of Severino’s at-bats:

There are a lot of lower body movements happening, and some stepping in the bucket. Maintaining connection to the ground throughout your swing is a very important part of the learning process of hitting. As you grow into strength, your effort levels to produce power become more controlled. That will be a focus for Severino as he develops and eventually moves out of the complex league. There are multiple swings here where his first move is his lead hip drifting toward third base. Sometimes he counters his stepping in the bucket with a scissor kick to even things out, but by then he already lost his hands. On the other hand, there are some swings here with serious thump (2:15 is a great example). The rotational power is clearly there; it will just be a balancing act for Severino as he ages and faces better competition.

Teams like the Pirates bring on players like Santana for a few reasons, but one of them is hoping he plays well enough to garner a return like this at the trade deadline. There is no guarantee that Severino will help the next good Pirates club, but in a deal like this, all you want is an opportunity to have something to work with, and that’s exactly what they got. For the Brewers, it shores up what has been a significant hole as they make a playoff push.

The National League Central is the weirdest division in baseball. It’s the only one where the first place team has a negative run differential. It’s also the only one where the second place team has a negative run differential. Indeed, only one team in the division has scored more runs than they’ve allowed, and it’s the third-place Chicago Cubs at 51-51.

With a +55 run differential, the Cubs rank third in the National League, better than teams like the Giants, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Marlins, and, of course, ahead of the Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, and Pirates. Only three NL clubs have outscored the Cubs, and only six have allowed fewer runs to cross the plate. Only one has done both: the Atlanta Braves. Yet while the Braves have the best World Series odds in baseball, the Cubs’ chances of claiming a title are just a teeny tiny bit worse:

By Pythagenpat and BaseRuns, the Cubs “should” be 57-45. According to the calculation of Pythagorean win-loss record at Baseball Reference, the Cubs “deserve” to be 56-46 this season, five games better than they are right now. That record still wouldn’t be quite enough to put them ahead of the Brewers, but it would bring them within half a game of the division and into first place in the Wild Card standings. Unfortunately for Chicago, Pythagoras doesn’t have much of a say in the postseason race. With a .500 record, the Cubs are four games back of a Wild Card berth, and they’d have to leapfrog at least three teams to get there. Their playoff odds sit at 21.5%, putting them behind the Brewers and Reds in the NL Central, as well as the Phillies, Giants, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and even the Padres in the Wild Card chase. They recently surpassed the Mets, but with the way New York is playing, that isn’t saying much. Read the rest of this entry »

With less than a week to go until the trade deadline, things have been relatively quiet on the transaction front, possibly due to the uncertainty surrounding Shohei Ohtani’s availability. But now that an Ohtani trade is off the table, I think we can expect things to really start moving in the next day or so. That makes this the perfect time for one of my favorite/most dreaded pieces of the year, in which I kick things off with some trade imagineering that hopefully doesn’t result in too many people being mad at me. Not all of these deals would necessarily be accepted if they were offered as-is — teams value players differently, after all — nor am I reporting on actual trades that are in the works. But I tried to make sure that each of these deals was plausible and actually met the needs of the teams in question. Let’s get to it!

The Philadelphia Phillies acquire 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the St. Louis Cardinals for OF Johan Rojas, SS Hao-Yu Lee, and OF Carlos De La Cruz

Right now, the Phillies are hoping to get Rhys Hoskins, who is a free agent at the end of the season, back for a playoff run. But rather than pin their postseason dreams on a guy coming off a significant injury, why not simply get a plug-and-play first baseman who is signed through 2024? If Hoskins turns out to be healthy for the playoffs, the Phillies will have an extra pinch-hitter ready for situational duty. But if they trade for Goldschmidt, it would solidify first base while also allowing them to put Bryce Harper back at DH most games. That would leave Kyle Schwarber and the heavily slumping Nick Castellanos to fight for playing time once Cristian Pache returns from his elbow injury (assuming he picks up where he left off). The Phillies are ninth in the NL in runs scored and with a fairly set lineup, there just aren’t a lot of places to add significant run production. Goldschmidt is about as good as you can do at the deadline this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about watching Shohei Ohtani play while they podcast, the Angels’ decision not to trade Ohtani and subsequent trade for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López, whether the Cubs should buy or sell, the Guardians’ and Dodgers’ perplexing Amed Rosario-for-Noah Syndergaard swap, the Brewers acquiring Carlos Santana, and Rob Manfred’s extension. Then (45:05) they answer emails about dugout punching bags and whether the ABS system could help umps (and players) learn the strike zone, react (59:44) to the rest of Ohtani’s doubleheader exploits, Stat Blast (1:06:55) about the Orioles’ sweepless streak, the most hits recorded by the fewest batters when that number of hits is the team’s total, first career hits that are also first career hits allowed, player homerless streaks, the high-scoring fifth game after the All-Star break, and players being traded together twice, plus a Future Blast (1:27:39) from 2038 and a few follow-ups.

Audio intro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Verducci’s Ohtani report
Link to Minasian quote
Link to Ben C. on the Giolito trade
Link to FG staff Ohtani post
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to BP IL Ledger
Link to Britton on buy/sell decisions
Link to Shohei doubleheader story
Link to Shohei doubleheader fun facts
Link to Wise no-no
Link to Wise second homer
Link to FG on Dodgers-Guardians trade
Link to FG on Hernández trade
Link to team SS WAR leaders
Link to Dodgers SS WAR leaders
Link to Sheehan on the Cubs
Link to Brewers 1B leaders
Link to Manfred extension article
Link to Athletic article on ABS
Link to sweepless streaks tweet
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to most hits by fewest players
Link to first-career-hits data
Link to homerless streaks data
Link to trade pairs list
Link to 5th post-ASB game image
Link to 5th post-ASB game image 2
Link to Craig Wright on 1894
Link to Ben on moving the mound
Link to EW emails database
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to EW Ohtani trading game
Link to Ohtani trading game responses

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The Twins and Marlins traded veteran right-handed relievers on Wednesday, sending 2020 World Series champ Dylan Floro to Minnesota and 2022 All-Star Jorge López’s talents to South Beach. It’s another big-leaguer-for-big-leaguer trade for a pair of familiar trade partners. In January, Kim Ng and Derek Falvey exchanged 2023 All-Stars Luis Arraez and Pablo López (along with minor leaguers Byron Chourio and Jose Salas). They can only hope this deal goes half as well for both sides.

Neither the Twins nor the Marlins were getting the production they’d hoped for this season from López and Floro, respectively. In Minnesota, the 30-year-old López — acquired from Baltimore at last year’s deadline for four pitchers, including All-Star Yennier Cano — hasn’t had the same stuff he brought to the Twin Cities last year. In 37 outings, he’s posted a 5.09 ERA, 5.94 FIP, and 4.84 xFIP, striking out just 6.88 per nine innings, down from 9.13 last year. He’s fallen to the 14th percentile in average exit velocity and the 17th in xERA, both of which were in the 70s last season. Home runs have been an issue; he’s giving up more contact in the air, and more of that contact is finding the seats, as he’s gone from an 8.3% HR/FB rate to a gaudy and probably unsustainable 21.9%, the ninth-highest mark among pitchers with 30-plus innings. Read the rest of this entry »

Today the Killers list turns the corner — or rather turns to the teams receiving less-than-acceptable production in the outfield corners. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of their roster. Interestingly enough, two of the seven teams below the WAR cutoff for right field also make the list for left field: one because it’s far below, and the other because it’s right on the line. I’m listing the capsules in order of their left field rankings first while noting those two crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 1 deadline, but these are teams to keep an eye upon. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are through July 25, but team won-loss records and Playoff Odds are through July 26. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday, the Angels made the most consequential decision they’ll make all year: they decided to pull Shohei Ohtani off the trade market and attempt to make the playoffs. They followed that decision up almost immediately with a complementary one, acquiring Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox in exchange for prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush, kicking the trade deadline off in earnest by landing one of the best starters on the market, plus an interesting relief flier.

If you came here for a tallying up of the relative merits of the four players involved in this deal, you’ll definitely get it, but I’ll be frank: I don’t think that’s the most interesting thing to discuss about this trade. If that’s what you’re after, search for the phrase “get down in the mud and count beans.” You can read the second half of this article and come back up here later. First, though, I want to talk about the bigger picture here for both the Angels and the Sox. For my purposes here, we’ll just ballpark it: Giolito is a solid third starter. López is a high-risk, high-reward setup man. Quero is a 50 FV catcher, a middle-of-the-top-100 prospect. Bush is a future back-of-rotation starter. There’ll be more than that later, but that’s a good starting place.

Deciding whether or not to trade Ohtani is a responsibility I wouldn’t wish on anyone. It goes beyond counting up value and cost, weighing playoff odds against organizational soundness. It’s not about wins and losses, even. Voluntarily sending the best player in baseball out of your city is a legacy question, a fan interest question, the kind of thing disgruntled fans might cite for why they fell out of love with the team. On the flip side, turning a rental into multiple top prospects might be the kind of move that builds a competitive core around the tail end of Mike Trout’s prime. This isn’t your average buy/sell decision; when they write Perry Minasian’s baseball biography, what he did with Ohtani will likely be in the first paragraph. Read the rest of this entry »