Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning everyone, hope you had a good week. I’m on the road looking for a reprieve from the heat, hoping that things have downshifted when I get back. The forecast doesn’t look favorable for that. I’m in data-gathering mode, lining the coffers for offseason list-making. I have a rental car pickup in about 90 mins, so we’re keeping things tight to the hour today. Let’s get after it.
12:03
Charles Bengal Tiger: So, 47 HRs for Fischer. What does it really mean?
12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Because of how the bottom of the big league scale is shifting and evolving, I’m starting to come around on the idea that this will be good enough for Fischer to be a first division regular at first base…
12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Here is the bottom of the big league player pop in terms of contact rate:
Welcome to the second Five Things of the week. After a bonus recap of Saberseminar, it’s time to get back to what this column is all about: bunts. OK, fine, that’s not entirely true, but trying to bunt for a hit leads to some of the best on-field action, and by the time we hit September, I’m eager for some exciting fielding adventures, whether they end in an out or not. In fact, exciting adventures are pretty much all I’m looking for at the moment. Whether it’s playoff previews, low-stakes barnburners, or maniacally aggressive baserunners, I’m looking for chaos, tension, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat combined in a single play or single game. The past two weeks haven’t disappointed – just so long as you’re willing to extend your definition of action past the usual homers and strikeouts. So buckle up for another five things – after thanking patron saint Zach Lowe of The Ringer for his delightful column idea, which I’ve been faithfully ripping off for four years now.
1. Seeding Clashes
Five Things is generally the domain of silly baseball. The best plays don’t only happen in games between the best teams – really, there are more mid-level teams than great ones, so if anything, this is more of an underdogs column. But while the past few weeks have plenty of that, there have also been some downright amazing battles between teams fighting for the same playoff spot, and I find myself tuning into those games more frequently than anything else recently.
The impetus for this item actually started several weeks ago, when the Dodgers played seven games against the Brewers and Cubs in a two-week span. I was interested in seeing the best teams in the NL measure themselves against each other – and luckily, the league cooperated. The Brewers and Braves themselves squared off in a three-game set just before the Dodgers traveled to Atlanta. That set up a round robin of sorts between the NL’s best – the Brewers went 5-2, the Dodgers went 1-6, and the Braves were 4-2. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s no secret that starting pitchers throw fewer innings than they once did. Not only have complete games become a rarity (there have only been 20 so far this season), it is all too common to see starters limited to just five frames. The proof is in the pudding. Going by 10-year increments, the average number of innings per start has dropped steadily, going from 6.53 in 1976 to 5.08 in the current campaign. Moreover, the number of outings with 100 or more pitches this year is just 510, a 560 pace. Turn the calendar back to 2016 and there were 1,737 such outings. A decade earlier, there were 2,095.
How do current major league starters feel about the collective decline in workloads? Comprehensive polling isn’t practical, but I did query nine starters — some older, some younger — to get their thoughts on the subject. Here is what they had to say. Read the rest of this entry »
This year, the Philadelphia Phillies are 26th in team position player WAR and 27th in wRC+. It’s not because they haven’t thrown enough money at the problem. They’re paying eight position players at least $10 million this year, if you include the cost of Nick Castellanos’ buyout. Nine players have batted at least 250 times for the Phillies this year; Brandon Marsh is the only one who didn’t cost them either eight figures or a first-round draft pick.
And yet: Even as Kyle Schwarber chases yet another home run title and Bryce Harper posts his best OBP in three years, Bryson Stott is within a tenth of a win of the team lead in WAR.
Stott, one of the quietest and least conspicuous members of the Phillies’ core, has taken his turn to carry the baton. Over a two-month span, from June 15 to August 15, Stott hit .306/.404/.462 and was third in WAR in the entire league. Read the rest of this entry »
With Meg Rowley on vacation, Ben Lindbergh continues his quest to (temporarily) resurrect a few dearly departed baseball podcasts. Next Up: The Bandwagon, featuring Hannah Keyser of CNN and Zach Crizer of The Bandwagon (the ongoing newsletter). Ben, Hannah, and Zach discuss Hannah’s transition from baseball specialist to sports generalist, her visit to Driveline Baseball for velocity training, and why position-player pitchers throw so slow. Then they banter about baseball bits and bobs: the buzzer-beating, pre-postseason returns of Aaron Judge and other prominent players; the future of rehab assignments; Zach’s 2026 rebuild rankings and his and Hannah’s debate about how bad David Stearns has been for the Mets; Mickey Gasper’s hot streak and Munetaka Murakami’s slump; a possible Rockies sale; Thomas Pannone’s Triple-A perfect game; and how the challenge system has affected catcher framing and defensive value, plus postscript follow-ups.
The NL MVP race is over. Truthfully, it’s been over since the Dodgers announced that Shohei Ohtani was taking a break from pitching all the way back in July. Pete Crow-Armstrong had so thoroughly lapped the field by then that only a unicorn like Ohtani had a shot at some kind of narrative-based upset, and without the chance of him putting up Cy Young-caliber starts to go along with bruising slugging, that was that. Likewise, the Cubs haven’t really been in a playoff race since July; they’re a lock for one of the top two Wild Card spots, but they’re surely not catching the Brewers.
It’s natural for you to take your eye off the ball in a situation like this. How good is Crow-Armstrong? How good are the Cubs? Well, good enough that you don’t have to think about them again until October. If you’re a neutral fan, I wouldn’t blame you for filing away your view of team and player, tuning back in to your local nine, and resting assured that you already know who the best player in the league was this year, regardless of what transpired the rest of the way.
But while you were (potentially) looking away, Crow-Armstrong is still on a tear. He’s not just the best player in the majors this year; he’s also been the best player in the majors over the past month. Where last year he melted in the late-summer heat, this year he’s getting better as time passes. Not only that, the way he’s doing it has me revising my long-term outlook on him.
When Crow-Armstrong broke out in 2025, he had an obvious weakness. He simply never saw a pitch he didn’t think he could tattoo. That made him run hot and cold; he paired incredible runs of scalded contact with stretches where he couldn’t buy a hit. Early this year, he was alternating between swing-happy stretches and periods of extreme patience. As Jay Jaffe pointed out, that helped him get the ball in the air to the pull side more frequently, in addition to forcing pitchers to venture into the zone more often or give up free passes. Read the rest of this entry »
Leading Astros pitchers in WAR usually takes some doing. The current AL West standings have Houston in line for its eighth division title and 10th postseason appearance in the past 12 years. Over that time, Astros pitchers have won three Cy Young Awards — two for Justin Verlander, one for Dallas Keuchel. Six other starters (Gerrit Cole, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Hunter Brown, Collin McHugh, and Yusei Kikuchi) have gotten downballot votes.
This year, the first-place Astros’ pitching WAR leader is 29-year-old Peter Lambert. It’s not a classic Astros rotation by any means — Brown and Cristian Javier have both spent a big chunk of the season on the IL — but Lambert is at the front of it nevertheless. No one expected this, least of all Lambert himself. Read the rest of this entry »
Mike Trout has been one of the best hitters of his generation, if not one of the best in baseball annals. Now 35 years old and in his 16th major league season — all with the Los Angeles Angels — the pride of Millville, New Jersey has left the yard 424 times while logging a 163 wRC+ over 7,765 plate appearances. A 12-time All-Star and three-time MVP, he has been awarded nine Silver Sluggers.
When Trout arrives in Cooperstown — already with 90.2 WAR, enshrinement is basically a fait accompli — he will do so as a slugger who embraced a relatively straightforward approach. Much like his longtime contemporary Bryce Harper, who was featured in our Talks Hitting series back in May, Trout is steadfastly old school in the batter’s box. It’s hard to argue with the results. While no longer in his prime — not even legends can defeat Father Time — he is undeniably an all-time great.
Trout sat down to talk hitting prior to Tuesday’s game at Fenway Park.
———
David Laurila: How much have you changed as a hitter since signing your first professional contract?
Mike Trout: “I’m pretty much the same guy. I try to keep it that way. If you look at when I was younger — high school to early in pro ball — it’s pretty much the same now. I mean, there have been tweaks here and there. It might look a little different, but I feel like I’m the same hitter.”
Laurila: Can you elaborate on “might look a little different?”
Trout: “Subtle differences in my setup. The main thing is my contact points, and you probably wouldn’t see much difference there, but the setup is what gets you to that spot. That’s what I’m working on during the times I’m trying to figure stuff out.”
Job Title: Intern, Data Science Department: Baseball Operations Reports To: Manager, Data Science Status: Hourly, non-exempt
Timeline: Preference will be given to candidates who can start by January 1, 2027 or sooner, and work through mid-October 2027.
Primary Objective: Responsible for supporting all areas of baseball operations through baseball-related data science, including statistical modeling, research, visualizations, and other projects.
Essential Functions:
Statistical modeling and analysis of a variety of data sources including Trackman, Hawkeye, and proprietary data sets.
Ad hoc queries and quantitative research.
Will perform other duties as assigned.
Education and Experience:
Bachelor’s degree preferred. Public research and work experience may be considered in lieu of education requirements if approved by management.
A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science, and/or engineering required.
Proficiency in programming with either R, Python, or Julia required.
Proficiency with SQL preferred.
Track record of original baseball research or other sports research preferred.
Experience building and interpreting predictive models preferred.
Experience working with AI programming tools, such as Claude Code, Cursor, Codex, or Copilot welcomed.
Compensation Rate/Range:
The Mariners are committed to providing competitive pay, perks and benefits packages for our valued Team Members. This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.
The anticipated pay for this seasonal role is $23 per hour. The Mariners also provide a robust and unique offering of perks and benefits including paid public transportation, merchandise discounts, special access to baseball games and other public events, and a number of exclusive employee incentives. All perks are subject to eligibility requirements and availability and may be modified or amended from time to time.
Department: Baseball Operations Reports To: Manager, Baseball Operations Status: Nonexempt
Timeline: Preference will be given to candidates who can start by March 1, 2027 and work through mid-October 2027.
Primary Objective: Responsible for coordination, support, and assistance to the Baseball Operations department in research, administration, and day-to-day scouting operation tasks.
Essential Functions:
Support all areas of the Pro and Amateur Scouting departments, including administration, player evaluation, research, video clipping, and preparation for the Amateur Draft meetings.
Provide support in Advance Scouting, including preparation of the Major League Advance Scouting report.
Provide additional statistical analysis, economic, and financial research as assigned.
Perform other duties as assigned.
Education and Experience:
Bachelor’s degree preferred. Equivalent relevant work or playing experience may be considered in lieu of formal education if approved by management.
Basic Spanish proficiency is preferred.
Background in player evaluation is preferred.
Background in video preparation is preferred.
Compensation Rate/Range:
The Mariners are committed to providing competitive pay, perks, and benefits packages for our valued Team Members. This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.
The anticipated pay for this seasonal role is $23 per hour. The Mariners also provide a robust and unique offering of perks and benefits including paid public transportation, merchandise discounts, special access to baseball games and other public events, and a number of exclusive employee incentives. All perks are subject to eligibility requirements and availability and may be modified or amended from time to time.
Going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts is not typically a line in a boxscore that is hailed as a grand success for the batter or the team. In this case, however, it represented Aaron Judge’s return to the Yankees’ lineup, the first time he appeared in a game in more than three months. With the Tampa Bay Rays proving to be stubbornly intransigent about complying with the whole regression toward the mean thing, getting Judge back is incredibly important for the Yankees as they try to challenge for the AL East crown.
Up until the team announced on Monday that it was activating Judge, it was difficult to pinpoint an exact timeline for when he might return from the rib injury that plopped him onto the IL in early June. After an initial hope that he’d only miss a few days, that expected recovery window was extended to maybe August, and then to an emoji shrug followed up by a crossed-fingers emoji. While the Yankees have been used to this over the years with Giancarlo Stanton, whose return from his litany of injuries is always imminent, like Krusty the Clown’s supposed arrival at Kamp Krusty to save the children, it was different to go through it with Judge. And yes, I’m an aging Xennial so of course there’s a Simpsons reference.
With Judge out, the Yankees have combined for a wRC+ of 90, second worst in baseball, ahead of only the Los Angeles Angels. New York’s ranking of 26th in runs scored does not paint a sunnier overall picture. It’s only thanks to superb pitching that the Yankees have stayed afloat. The Judge-less Yankees were the disaster scenario I specifically outlined in the preseason projections, so their putrid performance at the plate without him was not a surprise. But because they continued to win in his absence, it would take an extremely unlikely collapse of epic proportions to push them out of a playoff spot.
However, just making the playoffs was never the goal. As always, New York’s ambition is to win the World Series, and securing a first-round bye would put the club in a much better position to do that. That means the Yankees need to run down the Rays, because even if they finish with the second-best record in the AL, if they don’t win the AL East, the best they’ll get is home-field advantage in the Wild Card round. Bringing him back now, without sending him on a rehab assignment or giving him more live-BP reps before activating him, is an indication of how important the Yankees consider their captain to be. They believe that having even a rusty version of Judge in their lineup gives them their best shot to win the division.
As noted at the top, Judge’s performance itself did not look like a triumphal return to the lineup. The Yankees beat the Rockies, as you’re supposed to do most of the time, but Judge got rung up on strikeouts on fastballs from Gabriel Hughes and Mark Manfredi, one of them swinging, and his only ball in play was a fairly routine fly out to Cole Carrigg. Judge was also not particularly happy about being pulled for Heliot Ramos after the sixth inning. (Ramos hit a three-run homer later that proved to be decisive.)
Meh game aside, let’s crunch some numbers on the divisional race, both with and without Judge.
ZiPS Median Projected AL East Standings – 9/9/26
Team
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
Tampa Bay Rays
94
68
—
.580
79.1%
20.9%
100.0%
6.7%
New York Yankees
91
71
3
.562
18.6%
81.4%
100.0%
8.5%
Boston Red Sox
89
73
5
.549
2.2%
97.7%
100.0%
7.6%
Toronto Blue Jays
82
80
12
.506
0.0%
50.5%
50.5%
3.2%
Baltimore Orioles
79
83
15
.488
0.0%
5.6%
5.6%
0.2%
Source: Me, the ZiPS Guy
Having a nearly one-in-five projected chance at winning the division is actually quite a positive prognosis for the Yankees. After all, remember, the four-game lead the Rays have over the Yankees is, for all intents and purposes, a five-game lead. Since Major League Baseball is frequently a thief of joy, we no longer have tiebreaking Game 163s. The Yankees need to sweep the Rays in their four-game series at home during the final week of the season to get the tiebreaker.
But the Yankees have other advantages. ZiPS at least believes that the Yankees are the strongest team in the AL with Judge back in the lineup, and the computer has always been lukewarm on the Rays. There are also scheduling advantages, in that ZiPS has the Yanks with a significantly easier remaining schedule than Tampa, with games against the Rockies, Mets, Twins, and Orioles still to come.
Just having Judge in the lineup is, of course, the biggest impact of his return, but there are downstream effects as well. Spencer Jones has hit as well as ZiPS — the most positive projection system on him in March — expected, and he ought to remain a part of the lineup even with Judge back. A Judge-Jones-Cody Bellinger starting lineup with Ben Rice ar DH leaves Ramos and Jasson Domínguez as quite solid role players the team can mix-and-match depending on the game.
Now, let’s cruelly re-injure Judge. Theoretically, of course, for science; do not, I repeat, do not follow Judge around after games driving a cartoon steamroller.
ZiPS Median Projected AL East Standings – 9/9/26 (No Judge)
Team
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
Tampa Bay Rays
94
68
—
.580
87.5%
14.5%
100.0%
7.7%
New York Yankees
91
71
3
.562
10.2%
87.9%
100.0%
5.2%
Boston Red Sox
89
73
5
.549
2.3%
97.6%
100.0%
8.0%
Toronto Blue Jays
82
80
12
.506
0.0%
50.3%
50.3%
3.4%
Baltimore Orioles
79
83
15
.488
0.0%
6.2%
6.2%
0.3%
Source: Me, the ZiPS Guy
You’ll notice it doesn’t move the projected standings by a full win — the Yankees are at least better equipped to handle a Judge absence now, for the remainder of the regular season, than they were a few months ago — but there are significant changes in the standings. Because of those upside scenarios, losing Judge knocks a good 40% off their shot at their last chance comeback against the Rays and slices a similar chunk off their World Series championship odds.
Monday night’s game featured an unremarkable game from a remarkable player, in a win the Yankees were supposed to snatch up anyway. But since it was Judge’s return, it may have been one of the most productive hitless games you’ll ever see. New York doesn’t need to see its franchise icon immediately resume vaporizing baseballs to make the postseason, but it certainly would be convenient. The Rays have spent a whole year rejecting ZiPS’ suggestions that they stop being quite so good, and the calendar is rapidly running out of opportunities for the Yankees to punish Tampa Bay’s obstinacy. With Aaron Judge back in the lineup and four games left to play against the Rays, the Yankees have just enough mathematical daylight to cause trouble.
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