Lars Nootbaar aspires to drive more balls in the air, and understandably so. The 25-year-old St. Louis Cardinals outfielder has a 120 wRC+ this season — his career mark is one point lower — but he also has a 55.7% groundball rate, which ranks sixth highest among qualified hitters. Not coincidentally, his slash line is an OBP-heavy .267/.390/.382.

Nootbaar does possess the ability to make hard contact. His average exit velocity was in the 90th percentile a year ago, although he has admittedly backslid this season to the less impressive 53rd percentile. And again, he’s killing too many worms. Moreover, not only has his groundball rate risen — last year’s mark was 43.8% — the percentage of balls he’s hit pull side has dropped from 42.4% to 32.3%. While his plus plate discipline has remained as good as ever, Nootbar needs to find a way to up his power production in order to do meaningful damage.

Nootbaar discussed his still-in-progress identity as a hitter, and his efforts to develop more pop, when the Cardinals visited Fenway Park earlier this month.

———

David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a hitter? In other words, what is your identity at the plate?

Lars Nootbaar: “I don’t really know. I guess I’m still kind of searching to figure out what kind of hitter I am. In the meantime, I’m just trying to do the best I can to compete up here. So yeah, right now I guess I’m not exactly sure.” Read the rest of this entry »

If Nolan Gorman were filling out a hitting resume this year, he might struggle with the “weaknesses” section. “I care too much,” he might have to settle for, or “my teammates say I have trouble letting go after work.” It would have to be one of those silly platitudes; he’s in the midst of an admirably complete season. It’s not just his .301/.392/.636 slash line, though that’s great. He’s been good against four-seam fastballs, good against sinkers, good against curveballs, good against cutters and changeups; the only pitch he’s struggled with even a little bit is the slider, and he’s still roughly average there. He’s hitting for power and average, taking his walks, and even holding his own against opposing lefties.

That balance is all the more impressive because it’s a 180-degree turn from last year’s campaign. Gorman’s 2022 ended in disappointment. He was called up to the majors in mid-May and briefly found everyday playing time, but by season’s end, the bloom was off the rose. He slumped badly down the stretch, posting a .138/.219/.310 batting line in September, and was demoted to Triple-A before season’s end.

What went wrong? This:

And this:

And this:

Yes, Gorman had trouble with high fastballs. “Trouble” is understating it, really. He was downright atrocious against four-seamers. He ran an 18.3% swinging-strike rate against them (counting foul tips). Edwin Díaz, the best closer on earth, got swinging strikes on 18% of his four-seamers. We’re talking Joey Gallo territory among hitters, or lost-phase Keston Hiura. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Mets. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Yordan Alvarez kissing Martín Maldonado, Will Brennan’s birdslaughter (12:33), the Guardians’ slow start (23:12), Madison Bumgarner’s reported reluctance to alter his pitching approach (32:49), Mike Trout passing Ken Griffey Jr. in career Baseball-Reference WAR (45:56), whether the A’s will end up historically bad or rebound to being merely abysmal (1:03:38), the firing of A’s broadcaster Glen Kuiper (1:21:17), and the Dodgers’ Pride Night debacle (1:40:34), plus a Past Blast from 2010 (1:48:05).

Audio intro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Yordan kiss image
Link to Yordan kiss video
Link to Pudge kiss image
Link to Brennan bird video
Link to other Brennan bird clip
Link to Brennan tweet
Link to baby pigeons info
Link to Gomes story
Link to playoff odds changes
Link to Buchanan on Bumgarner
Link to Mason Saunders story
Link to Trout/Griffey thread
Link to B-Ref career WAR leaders
Link to Dan S. on the A’s
Link to Tango on the A’s
Link to Sheehan on the A’s
Link to tremendous content meme
Link to Kuiper firing story
Link to other Kuiper story
Link to 2023 Kuiper clip
Link to 2020 Kuiper clip
Link to first Kuiper apology
Link to Braden explanation
Link to Pride Night story
Link to 2010 Past Blast source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Mets lasagna story
Link to Brennan’s bird gesture
Link to Brennan press conference
Link to A’s stadium update

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Marlins were the subject of jokes aplenty this winter after they added two established second basemen, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, to a roster that already featured multiple capable keystone defenders. Yet all jokes aside, Kim Ng’s unconventional method of roster construction has worked out quite well thus far. Arraez leads all primary second basemen with a 151 wRC+, and his defense is tolerable as long as he keeps hitting. Meanwhile, Jazz Chisholm Jr., though currently on the IL, has adjusted well to center field, and Jon Berti and Joey Wendle have been an excellent defensive tandem at shortstop.

However, the second baseman the Marlins signed to play third is struggling terribly. Segura is slashing .200/.268/.236 (the rare .200/.200/.200 batting line, also known as a Paul Janish), and he is one of only five qualified hitters without a home run (an achievement known as a Reggie Willits). His 43 wRC+ ranks last in baseball, as does his .231 wOBA and .504 OPS. The only qualified hitter with a lower WAR is José Abreu, who has had an additional five games in which to be dreadful. Segura’s only saving grace is that he has hit well in 15 high-leverage plate appearances (.385 AVG, 134 wRC+), but even so, his -1.31 WPA is the worst in the National League.

The last qualified batter to finish with a wRC+ below 45 was Clint Barmes, who posted a 38 wRC+ in 2006. Since then, only five other players have even finished below 50; typically, hitters either improve as the year goes on, or they don’t get enough playing time to qualify. As for the handful who lasted a full season with such a feeble bat, the only one to have been an above-average hitter throughout the rest of his career was Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. His 46 wRC+ in 2017 was a huge step down from his career 117 wRC+ to that point. Read the rest of this entry »

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my weekly chat!

2:01	Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece today on the Yankees DFAing Aaron Hicks https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-have-finally-cut-bait-on-aaron…

2:02	Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Dodgers’ rotation mess in the wake of injuries to Dustin May and Julio Urías https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-to-dustin-may-and-julio-urias-lea…

2:02	Jay Jaffe: And last Friday I had a piece on Manny Machado’s injury and struggles that was published prior to his going on the IL https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-padres-offense-is-broken-and-so-is…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: I may revisit that one, there are a couple of loose ends. Anyway, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »

After a doubleheader sweep against the Guardians Sunday, the Mets have stretched their winning streak to five and stand two games above .500 for the first time since May 3. In the double-bill, co-aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer combined for 14 innings while allowing just one run. Granted, they mowed down the league’s worst offense by wRC+, but for fans, the pair’s dominance was a sight for sore eyes: Verlander missed all of April with a shoulder issue and Scherzer has had to work around a sticky-stuff suspension, a neck issue, and general ineffectiveness this year. Given these obstacles, it’s reasonable to wonder whether Sunday represented the turning point fans were hoping for or a mere blip in a season of decline for the veteran hurlers. To protect against the latter, the Mets will have to take a hard look at their starting pitching depth.

Coming into the season, we ranked the Mets starting staff as the second-best in the league, right behind the Yankees. While the Bombers have had to weather some injuries of their own, their starters have still managed to post an above-average WAR, FIP, and ERA. Head across the city to Queens, though, and you’ll find the second, third, and sixth-worst staff by WAR, FIP, and ERA, respectively. Clearly, the problems aren’t limited to their top two starters.

Due to ailments of their own, the Mets have gotten just 18.2 frames out of José Quintana and Carlos Carrasco combined. But one reason we liked the Amazins’ staff so much to begin the season was their enviable depth — their sixth, seventh, and eighth starters in David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and Joey Lucchesi easily could have started the season as part of the top-five somewhere else. The three of them have all been healthy, and along with Kodai Senga and the (inconsistent) contributions of Scherzer, that alone should have made for a serviceable starting five through April. Read the rest of this entry »

As contractual blunders go, the seven-year, $70 million extension to which the Yankees signed Aaron Hicks in February 2019 is hardly the worst of general manager Brian Cashman’s 26-season tenure. It’s not even the franchise’s worst contract to an outfielder during the 2010s, not when Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal for more than twice that amount was still on the books when the Yankees extended Hicks. As with Ellsbury, however, Hicks’ ongoing series of injuries left the Yankees hamstrung and prevented the switch-hitting center fielder from playing to the potential he’d once shown. On Saturday, the team finally cut bait, designating the 33-year-old for assignment with more than two full seasons remaining on his deal.

Hicks started just five games in center field this year, along with 15 in left field, but he came into the season unclear about his role, and lately his playing time was on the wane. With the return of center fielder Harrison Bader from an oblique strain that cost him all of April, Hicks had made just two spot starts in middle pasture and one in left since May 10, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jake Bauers filling the latter spot, though not to any great effect. No matter Hicks’ role, he was unable to provide much of an offensive spark, hitting just .188/.263/.261 with one homer and a 49 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances. His 2% barrel rate and 22.4% hard-hit rate both placed in single-digit percentiles among batters with at least 70 PA, and his xwOBA is the majors’ lowest at that cutoff:

Hicks actually had his first three-hit game of the season in last Thursday’s 4–2 win over the Blue Jays, in his penultimate game as a Yankee; that output matched his previous hit total for May, spread over nine games and 23 PA. But even with that big game, Yankees left fielders ranked dead last in the majors with a 63 wRC+ through Sunday, though Hicks only accounted for a little less than one-third of the plate appearances there:

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard for me to explain how much I enjoy watching Mookie Betts hit. He has an air of quiet confidence that reminds me of how I feel when I’m at my very best. That slider, low and tight? He doesn’t need it, so he’s ignoring it. Fastball away? Eh, he’ll find something better to attack. Then that perfect pitch comes by, and he springs into action, trading his air of barely concealed boredom for ferocity.

Luis Robert Jr. is a joy to watch as well, but for completely different reasons. He’s a coiled spring at the plate, waiting to burst into action. He’s one of the best athletes in all of baseball and at times one of the best players, period. His phenomenal bat control and speed let him feast on pitches all over the plate and even off of it, and you can see it in his statistical record: few walks, huge swing rates, and a minor strikeout problem that was minor only because of his rare combination of power and contact.

Betts and Robert have been very different players in their respective major league careers. But they share one distinction this year: they’re the two players who have cut back on their fastball swing rates the most. They’re numbers one and two with a bullet:

Read the rest of this entry »

Only 62 men and 20 women have scored a goal in a FIFA World Cup Final. It’s a rare achievement that holds a sacred place in sports history. Being the starting pitcher in a World Baseball Classic final is a bit less prestigious — at least for now, check back with me in 60 years to know for sure — but only 10 people can say they’ve done it.

Among them, Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly. “I’ve said it a million times before, but I’m super grateful I was able to be a part of it. Just the clubhouse in general, the quality of players on that team — by far the best team I’ve ever been on and it isn’t close,” he says. “Obviously, we would’ve liked it to go a different way in the last game.”

The circumstances that led to Kelly starting that game are interesting. When Team USA was setting up its rotation for the group stage, Kelly lobbied manager Mark DeRosa for the toughest assignment of pool play: Mexico. That start went to Padres right-hander Nick Martinez, who got crushed in an 11-5 loss. (This result led to Kelly being on the receiving end of some good-natured trash talk when he and Team Mexico center fielder Alek Thomas returned to Diamondbacks camp.)

When Kelly picked up a crucial win in the pool finale against Colombia three day days later, there was a silver lining to not getting his preferred rotation spot.

“One of the things DeRosa told me to console me was if I pitched against Colombia at home, that would line me up for the championship as well,” he says. Read the rest of this entry »