It’s not crazy to see someone make the jump from a great reliever to an elite reliever. Every year, there are a handful of stellar relief seasons that we simply just did not see coming. I was a fan of Alexis Díaz after his stellar 2022 debut (1.84 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 32.5 K%), but I did not expect him to be this dominant, as he’s taken big steps forward in more or less every stat. What’s behind it?

When it comes to pitching development, it’s important to be unique; you don’t want to look like or throw like anybody else. If you’re going to be elite, you must find what makes you special and lean into it. For Díaz, his outlier skill is his ability to release the ball closer to the plate than anybody in the world from an unorthodox angle. He doesn’t have overwhelming velocity, yet his four-seamer is one of the best in the game, and the extension is a huge reason for it. It’s as if the ball is being shot at you from a little league distance by a softball pitching machine.

Here’s how Díaz’s release point compares to other pitchers with comparable extension:

Focusing first on release point, you’ll see that none of the other four pitchers in this small cohort gets their arm as low as the Reds closer. Combine this with top-tier extension and consistently being up in the zone, and you have the explanation for how Díaz’s Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) is so flat compared to those on this list. Horizontally speaking, only Jordan Romano is as far toward the third baseline, but Díaz’s low slot arm angle is very different for hitters compared to Romano’s. In terms of spin axis, only Devin Williams is somewhat close to Díaz. The other three pitchers are more over the top. From a pitch design perspective, that would be ideal for building the perfect four-seamer, but as you can see, being different is exactly how Díaz has been successful. Read the rest of this entry »

With just a few weeks until the All-Star break, the best teams in the league have continued to separate themselves from the pack. There’s a huge contingent of teams vying over the remaining playoff berths in both the AL and the NL, and the relative weakness of the Central divisions has left the door open for clubs that would otherwise be considered out of the running.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays are in the middle of their first big slump of the season. They split both of their series against the Orioles and Royals last week, and haven’t won a series since taking two of three from the Rangers June 9–11. Their bullpen is scuffling, superstar wunderkind Wander Franco was benched for a couple of games for internal disciplinary reasons, and Shane McClanahan exited his start on Thursday early with back tightness. Both of those players seem to be on the mend, but Tampa has a pretty tough schedule as they head into the All-Star break, with three each against the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Phillies, and Braves. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Oakland Athletics. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

An empty major league stadium can evoke some unsettling sensations. I’ve been behind the scenes at numerous ballparks before, of course, but usually in the lead-up to or aftermath of a game. I know the low-grade background patter of concessions workers setting up and taking down stalls, the thump of the grounds crew packing the dirt around home plate, the smell of smoked meat on the grill.

During the week of the third annual MLB Draft Combine, Chase Field was a little different. The Cold Stone on the first base-side concourse still smelled delightfully of freshly-baked ice cream cones, even though the stall itself was buttoned up. The whizzing of an MLB Network camera drone was audible throughout the first two days of the combine, as was every crack of the bat and pop of the glove from batting practice, bullpens, and infield drills — even from a suite situated behind the right field foul pole on the stadium’s second level. A vivid palette of ambient noise, because a crowd of dozens, mostly scouts, wasn’t drowning it out.

Of the big four American men’s pro sports leagues, MLB was the last to organize a scouting combine for its draft-eligible prospects. While the NBA and NHL combines have their moments in the sun, the NFL’s is the cream of the crop, an event with almost four decades’ worth of folklore that generates a week’s worth of live TV content for the league’s cable channel, followed by months of buzz afterward. It is said to make and break prospects.

Baseball is a different beast than football; its schedule is unique, its athletes measured and evaluated differently. But 2023 represented a concerted effort by the league to attempt to make the combine into an event. Read the rest of this entry »

Buck Farmer is flying under the radar while making an impact in Cincinnati. Baseball’s hottest team went into yesterday having won 12 straight games, and the 32-year-old reliever had pitched in seven of them. Moreover, the Reds had been victorious in 14 of the last 15 contests he’d appeared in. Over those outings, Farmer was credited with two wins and a save while allowing just a pair of runs in 15 innings.

He’s been solid from the start. On the season — his second in Cincinnati after eight in Detroit — the Conyers, Georgia native has held opposing hitters to a .188 average while logging a 2.41 ERA over a team-high 35 appearances. Consistently pounding the zone with a three-pitch mix, he’s issued just 10 free passes while fanning 33 batters in 37-and-a-third innings. By most statistical markers, he’s never been better.

Farmer credits Cincinnati’s pitching program for much of his success.

“I think it’s the development here,” Farmer replied when asked what differentiates his current and former clubs. “[The Tigers] were starting to change over to a more analytical approach before I left, but I don’t think they’d quite made that adjustment yet. When I came here, they were already tuned in. DJ {Derek Johnson] and the other coaches are fully invested in us. They want us to grab a little bit more here and there, and that includes taking what we’re good at and trying to make it great.”

For Farmer, that meant reworking a pitch that has become a lethal weapon. Augmented by a four-seam fastball and a changeup, his slider has flummoxed hitters to the tune of an .091 average and a .212 slug. His whiff-rate with the offering is a heady 45.3%. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Michael Baumann to banter about the Phillies’ outlier legal name, Dave Martinez and the dying art of the theatrical managerial ejection, the benching of Wander Franco, whether the Diamondbacks’, Reds’, and Orioles’ surprising seasons are attributable to MLB’s new rules, and whether bad bullpens are good for baseball, then (59:48) discuss a classic College World Series pitcher’s duel, the College World Series final, whether the Shohei Ohtani comps for Florida’s Jac Caglianone are warranted, college pitch-count controversies, Eric and Michael’s takeaways from the MLB Draft Combine, whether there are indications of a baseball bounceback among young Black athletes, whether the scouts suing MLB over age discrimination are likely to succeed (1:40:57), and more, plus (1:54:05) a Future Blast from 2024.

Audio intro: Guy Russo, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Cuda tweet
Link to latest Martinez ejection
Link to Martinez photo printout
Link to Martinez World Series ejection
Link to Wellman ejection
Link to NYT on ejections
Link to article on Nevin ejections
Link to article on Boone ejection
Link to article on Franco benching
Link to Freeman/Acuña comments
Link to story on Franco’s safe
Link to Stark on surprise teams
Link to FG BsR data
Link to BP BRR data
Link to BP BRR allowed data
Link to Patrick on bad bullpens
Link to Sam on the Royals’ pen
Link to BP on the Mariners’ pen
Link to Paine on payroll and standings
Link to Paine’s MANFRED scores
Link to pre-Skenes/Lowder story
Link to post-Skenes/Lowder story
Link to Betteridge’s law
Link to more on Skenes/Lowder
Link to Passan on Caglianone
Link to WSJ pitch-counts article
Link to Eric’s latest draft rankings
Link to ESPN on Black amateur players
Link to Eric’s Draft Combine footage
Link to scout lawsuit article
Link to other scout lawsuit article
Link to Regan lawsuit article
Link to squatting article
Link to stretching article
Link to other stretching article
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to article on Elly’s cycle
Link to MLBTR on Waldron
Link to article on qualified catchers

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Earlier this week, my colleague Ben Clemens wrote about Marcus Semien and his impressive durability. As Ben pointed out, Semien leads the majors in plate appearances over the last five seasons, which has helped him to be one of the most valuable players in the game despite his relative shortage of standout skills.

The most productive catcher during that same time period has been J.T. Realmuto, who leads his fellow backstops by more than 5 WAR. He’s also way ahead of the pack with 2,147 plate appearances; Willson Contreras ranks second with 1,879. On the defensive side, the Phillies catcher is similarly outpacing his peers. He has played 4,084 innings behind the dish, 397.2 more than Martín Maldonado in second place. That’s the equivalent of 44 full games, or Austin Hedges‘ 2023 season to date. Much like Semien, Realmuto encapsulates the popular aphorism “availability is the best ability.” He isn’t the best defender or the best offensive catcher, but he’s good at everything he does, and he does it more often than anyone else. Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday in Oakland, with the A’s trailing the Phillies 3-1 and lefty José Alvarado on the mound, A’s manager Mark Kotsay sent the right-handed Esteury Ruiz to the plate to pinch hit for lefty Seth Brown, hoping to use a platoon advantage to mobilize some sort of comeback. After falling behind 1-2, Ruiz turned on an Alvarado cutter and sent a 94.1-mph grounder past the third baseman and into left field, giving his team some hope:

Ruiz would come around on a Carlos Pérez single, but the rally would ultimately fall short as the A’s extended a losing streak that has since run to eight games. But Ruiz had done all he was given the chance to do. Read the rest of this entry »

So here’s what happened. I was watching the MLB game highlights of Tuesday’s Marlins-Blue Jays matchup. I like MLB’s game highlights; in order to keep all the quick cuts from feeling disjointed, they kind of just plop some music on top everything unceremoniously, and sometimes the music can really color your perception of the game. This Mets-Padres game from April is a great example. It was a nailbiter, but it lost some of its nerve-wracking heft thanks to a soundtrack that’s a cross between John Coltrane, Kool & The Gang, and Super Mario 3.

Two on, two out, bottom of the ninth, and it sounds like the monologue is about to start on Saturday Night Live. Anyway, I was watching Tuesday’s Marlins-Jays highlights (the soundtrack for which sounds like The Living End on their union-mandated lunch break), and I noticed this single from Luis Arraez.

Normally, a single from Arraez is about the least remarkable thing in baseball. He is the game’s preeminent singles hitter (and depending on your worldview, perhaps the game’s preeminent hitter, period). What caught my eye was how quickly Daulton Varsho managed to cut this ball off, considering that Arraez slashed it just a foot inside the left field line. Varsho gets fantastic jumps, but I figured he also had to be playing extremely shallow. It occurred to me that maybe every outfielder is playing right on top of Arraez this year, seeing as dumping liners right in front of the outfielders for singles is his superpower. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another installment of Five Things, a look at odd circumstances and delightful happenings that caught my eye this past week. With the NBA solidly in its offseason, Zach Lowe’s column is taking a break, which means I might be the only Things show in town right now. This week was an awesome one for watching baseball, and I had a hard time narrowing the list down. I hope you like legends making big plays, unheralded rookies swinging games, and two Bay Area teams headed in opposite directions. Who am I kidding? Of course you like those things. Let’s get to it.

1. Joey’s Back!
The Reds are so much fun that I thought about making an entire five things column out of things I’m loving in Cincinnati these days, but I think we just call that an article, so I’m going to settle for writing about one of the best parts of their recent winning streak. As fun as it’s been to see the baby Reds gain confidence and romp to the top of the NL Central, there was something missing. All these kids are fun, but they were missing the team’s best player in a generation while he rehabbed in preparation for what will almost certainly be his last ride.

I started to get excited when Joey Votto’s goofy bus driver persona resurfaced. But I won’t lie to you: I was worried that he might not fit in as well as hoped. The infield was already packed with contributors, and Votto might lead the team to some tough playing time decisions they didn’t really want to make. He wasn’t even that good last year! It was definitely not preordained that everything would work out. Read the rest of this entry »