Matt Olson is striking out a lot. Exactly 30% of the time, to be precise. His swinging strike rate has never been higher. He’s only posted a lower contact rate once, in his disastrous 2020 campaign. Obviously, then, you know how he’s doing this year: incredibly well. His 140 wRC+ is the second-best mark of his career. Clearly, something interesting is going on, so let’s take a look at what it might be.

Honestly, the strikeouts are nothing new for Olson. His career 24.1% strikeout rate isn’t ideal for a top-tier hitter, particularly one with limited defensive value. It puts a lot of pressure on the rest of his game. You can succeed while striking out a lot, but you have to do a lot of other things well to strike out a quarter of the time and be a great hitter.

Throughout his career, Olson has mostly done that. Take his 2019 season, when he struck out 25.2% of the time. He hit for a ton of power – even playing in the cavernous Coliseum, his ISO was in the top 15 in the majors – and walked enough to post a reasonable OBP. But you can see the downside easily. Consider 2022, for example. Olson again struck out roughly a quarter of the time – 24.3% – and walked a similar amount. He again posted a top-15 ISO; a lower number, to be sure, because 2022 had far fewer homers than 2019. But he ran a .274 BABIP, and that along with the fact that he was playing in a better offensive environment but putting up similar numbers meant he was only 20% above average rather than 35% above average.

Seen next to each other, these two seasons explain the chief worry with Olson. Without much change in his underlying skills, he was only 20% above average offensively last year:

That’s still a nice player, but a first baseman with that kind of batting line is hardly an All-Star. It was the 13th-best batting line for a first baseman in the majors, hardly better than his replacement in Oakland, Seth Brown. That’s the kind of tightrope that a player with Olson’s skill set is always walking; a slight dip in power or BABIP can be the difference between average and excellent. Read the rest of this entry »

Aaron Judge is at it again. On Tuesday night in Seattle, the reigning AL MVP and home run king clubbed a towering solo shot off Darren McCaughan to aid the Yankees’ 10–2 win over the Mariners and to continue his latest rampage. It was his fourth homer in three days, his 12th in his past 16 games, and his AL-leading 18th overall. With that, he’s matched his total through the end of May last year, doing so in 46 games, one fewer than in 2022, though the Yankees have played 57 games, leaving him still behind the full-season pace he set en route to an AL-record 62 homers.

Even with this binge, Judge doesn’t lead the majors in homers. Hell, he doesn’t even lead New York City in homers. That honor belongs to Pete Alonso, who’s hit 20. Though he hasn’t homered since Saturday against the Rockies, the Mets first baseman has hit 14 since May 9, the day Judge came off the injured list after missing 10 games due to a minor hip problem. Here’s Saturday’s homer, which came at the expense of Chase Anderson:

Now that we’ve enjoyed some dingers, it’s only fair to mention that this article isn’t really about either of the Empire State’s sluggers so much as it is the conditions under which they’re positioning themselves for runs at 50-homer seasons — again. Recall that Judge set a rookie record with 52 in 2017, only to be topped by Alonso with 53 two years later. Balls aren’t flying out of the yard at the pace they did in either of those seasons, which happen to be the two highest full seasons on record; in 2017, teams bashed 1.26 homers per game, and in 2019, they upped that rate to a stratospheric 1.39 per game. This year, teams are averaging 1.15 homers per game, the seventh-highest rate on record (or sixth-highest, if you exclude the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). You have to carry the calculations out to a third decimal to place it properly:

Read the rest of this entry »

You know what’s important? Pitches. Almost all of the big stuff that happens on a baseball diamond starts with the pitcher pitching. Even Babe Ruth never once hit a home run without somebody throwing a pitch first.

Now that we’re more than a quarter of the way through the 2023 season, let’s take a look at the pitches. Specifically, we’re going to take a look at long-term trends, and talk about the ways in which this year has (or hasn’t) followed them. As such, I need you to prepare yourself for a whole lot of line graphs. In fact, just to drive home how many line graphs are in this article, here’s a bar graph:

Last week we ran 26 regular articles, in addition to chats, podcasts, prospect lists, and power rankings. We’re pretty busy. There were fewer line graphs in those 26 articles than there are in the next couple thousand words.

You know what? Seeing as the only bar graph in the past week is the one you just saw, maybe we should also give a quick update to our little guy.

Much better. Read the rest of this entry »

Owning a baseball team isn’t work in any meaningful sense. If it were, John J. Fisher would be out of a job by now. Fisher’s Athletics are on pace to have the worst single-season record of any AL or NL team since 1899. It’s not even June yet and they’re 24 1/2 games out of first place and 18 games out of third. Their 4-23 record in divisional play has floated every other team in the AL West over .500. Only one qualified starter, Jordan Lyles, has an ERA worse than Oakland’s team ERA. The baseball stinks, and ironically, A’s fans are seeing more of it anyone else. There is no rest for the weary.

The story of professional baseball since the 2010s has been that of a divorce between competitive and financial incentives. Winning does not beget profit; quite the opposite in some cases. But even as a commercial enterprise, the Athletics have been an astonishing failure. Their attendance is the worst in the league by far, with some midweek games against uninspiring opponents drawing as few as 2,000 paying customers. After a blowout win in Oakland over the weekend, the Astros’ social media team tweeted “10 runs in front of tens of fans” in reference to the pitiable attendance at the Coliseum.

There’s a long tradition of fans (or operatives, in this case) of big-market teams mocking their counterparts who cheer for less successful clubs by tweeting pictures of empty seats. It predates the idiom “poverty franchise,” but carries the same sentiment. Look at this worthless team of losers and the uncommitted dilettantes who can’t be bothered to cheer them on. Surely our greater commitment will be rewarded by the baseball gods, they say.

That brand of banter is increasingly viewed as impolite, and not just because it wasn’t long ago that the Astros lost 100 games a year with no one in the stands to witness their ineptitude. It’s because more and more, owners like Fisher are making clear that unwavering allegiance is folly. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Miami Marlins. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

2:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the post-Memorial Day edition of my chat. I had a weekend of solo parenting that was filled with activity, including taking my 6 1/2 year old daughter to a Yankees-Padres game on Friday night, but didn’t see much baseball otherwise until last night when I had Bobby Miller on one device and Bryce Miller on the other.

2:03

Jay Jaffe: anyway… no article from me today due to travel. ON Friday I checked in on Trea Turner’s struggles https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trea-turners-slide-has-not-been-smooth/ and the day before that on Carlos Correa’s foot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-correas-rebound-from-a-slow-start-h… Surprisingly, the latter has avoided the IL for now

2:04	Jay Jaffe: I’m impressed so far. I mean, who wouldn’t be given his .269/.327/.558 start through 113 PA?

2:04	Jay Jaffe: He’s +4.9 runs in framing, too. Didn’t see that coming

2:05	Jay Jaffe: He graded out as a 60 FV prospect, which is All-Star caliber. I haven’t seen anything to suggest he won’t be one though I don’t expect him to maintain a 142 wRC+

Read the rest of this entry »

This is a big year for the MLB rulebook. After decades of tiny incremental changes, the league made three huge ones in 2023. They instituted a pitch timer, changed the size of the bases, and restricted defensive positioning for the first time in modern history. But how have these new rules changed how the game looks on the field? I broke down each one to find out.

Games Are Shorter

The biggest change to the game this year was the introduction of a pitch timer, and it’s had a huge impact on game length. Per Baseball Reference, the average nine-inning game has lasted two hours and 37 minutes this year, down from three hours and three minutes last year. You have to go back to 1985 to find a shorter average game length.

Despite that drastic change, the amount of action in a game hasn’t changed much. Plate appearances per game are roughly unchanged: there are 75.6 this year, quite close to the 76.4 average in the 21st century. Pitcher per plate appearance are stable: 3.9 this year, 3.9 for the last 10 years on average.

The difference is all pace. Per Statcast, pitchers are taking three fewer seconds to throw with the bases empty and 4.5 fewer seconds to throw with a runner on base. The bases-empty change is welcome but only gets us back to the numbers that prevailed 15 years ago or so. The change with runners on base is far more important; we’ve likely never seen a faster pace when pitchers are holding runners, though the data only goes back to 2010. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a third of the way through the regular season, and June is right around the corner. The teams in the American League have sorted themselves into haves and have-nots, but the National League looks wide open for any team to make a run this summer.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

The Rays just wrapped up a long homestand where they went 7–3 against the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. Their schedule in May has been particularly tough, with every single series (except for their current one against the Cubs) coming against teams with winning records. Naturally, when facing its weakest opponent since April, Tampa Bay was shut out in a 1–0 loss on Monday. Also, don’t look now, but the Rangers have overtaken the Rays for the best run differential in baseball.

The Braves welcomed back Michael Soroka on Monday, as he made his first major league start since August 2020. He wasn’t particularly sharp, allowing four runs in six innings against the A’s, but his resilience to get back to the big leagues after so many injuries is inspiring. The hope is that he’ll be able to stabilize an Atlanta rotation still suffering from the absences of Max Fried and Kyle Wright. On offense, Austin Riley’s bat has finally started to heat up; he’s in the midst of an 11-game hitting streak that includes nine extra-base hits. Read the rest of this entry »

The drama of a superlative catch at a crucial point in a game is one of baseball’s great narrative moments. A ball is struck and everyone – fans, baserunners, sprinting outfielders – holds their breath for a few seconds waiting for it to hit either leather or grass, sending those baserunners and swinging the game in one direction or the other. It’s baseball’s version of a three-pointer heading towards rim or net, or a wide receiver and a cornerback extending for the same airborne pass – a moment of suspense in the most literal sense of the term, during which the only thing drawing us closer to a conclusion is gravity.

Now, because there’s nothing baseball fans love more than taking a beautiful moment of athleticism, emotion, and aesthetics and distilling it into numbers, I’ve been mulling how to appropriately credit an outfielder for a play like this – particularly with respect to how it impacts the game in that moment. We have a pretty good measure for what a batted ball is worth if it falls in for a hit or is caught for an out, adding to one team’s chances of winning depending on the score and base-out situation – Win Probability Added. But what about when the ball’s in the air and it’s up to the outfielder to track it down? How much credit (or blame) is owed to the outfielder? How do we measure how much the outfielder’s defense itself swung the game? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Pete Alonso‘s, um, emergency swing, the activations (6:25) of four players (Liam Hendriks, Michael Soroka, Paul Blackburn, and Royce Lewis), the small leads in most divisions (12:03) and the leveling out of the league (A’s aside), José Abreu‘s first homer “trot” of the season, and an umpire comment caught on a hot mic. Then (40:15) they answer a listener email about the ball’s liveliness and follow up on a few other email answers, bring on Rob Mains (57:35) of Baseball Prospectus to Stat Blast about the zombie runner’s impact on home field advantage and discuss the origins of the DL’s rechristening to “injured list” (1:18:45), and follow a Past Blast from 2013 (1:27:27) with banter about Andrew McCutchen’s request for a new rule, plus a postscript (1:37:58).

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Alonso clip
Link to Meg on Bradley
Link to Meg on Lind
Link to EW on Hernández
Link to Passan on Hendriks
Link to MLBTR on McCullers
Link to Rob Mains on 2022 inequality
Link to Rob Arthur on 2022 balance
Link to story on the Reds
Link to EW Wiki on the Reds
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to preseason predictions pod
Link to Abreu’s “trot”
Link to ump video
Link to ump post
Link to Marte’s homer
Link to HR/Contact graph
Link to ball-drag dashboard
Link to last email show
Link to Lemon on “prime”
Link to listener emails database
Link to Topps Now cards
Link to Rob on HFA
Link to HFA across sports
Link to HFA research
Link to more HFA research
Link to Ben on HFA
Link to Rob on the DL/IL
Link to 2013 Past Blast source
Link to another 2013 source
Link to Grant on catcher collisions
Link to EW Stanky Draft
Link to McCutchen article
Link to positional aging curves
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to 2016 sliding changes
Link to Hendriks gamer
Link to Soroka gamer
Link to Lewis gamer
Link to EW on TV exit speeds
Link to Fatsis on Wambsgans(s)
Link to Sam on Succession

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